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karmaswimswami
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MD, PhD, FACP
  • Benitec (BNIKF) Still Looks Cheap 13 comments
    Feb 24, 2014 10:44 AM | about stocks: BNIKF

    As of yesterday's close(I put these in a table, but am not sure it will be depicted as such by the software here):

    Alnylam $5.8 billion

    Arrowhead $891 million

    Benitec $140.9 million

    Bio-Path Holdings $379.3 million

    Dicerna $656.8 million

    Marina Bio $ 20.8 million

    RXII $ 62.3 million

    Tekmira $364.8 million

    These are all exogenous RNAi plays except Benitec (ddRNAi) and Marina (ddRNAi encoded by bacterial DNA). Valuation of all must be taken in the context that we may be mildly in a biotech bubble, so vast and deep is the speculation. I feel RXII is appropriately valued because of its paucity of clinical ideas....RNAi notions, but no clue what disease to go after. Alnylam is heinously overvalued now.

    I regard Arrowhead and Tekmira as Benitec's most approximate peers in terms of technology and clinical stage of development. So, Benitec is still undervalued. I am waiting for a pullback to load up on shares again.

    I have left out of this analysis companies that are making locked oligonucleotides (like miraversen and etiplersen) to go after microRNA. I feel those are a different beastie.

    Disclosure: I am long BNIKF.

    Themes: RNAi therapeutics Stocks: BNIKF
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Comments (13)
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  • GrowthGeek
    , contributor
    Comments (898) | Send Message
     
    BNIKF and BLT are sure not as cheap as they were last week at this time KSS but I agree that the stock is still a bargain in comparison to many others, espc. considering it's superb science and solid pipeline. I doubled my positions this morning as the stock price continues to soar despite the recent dilution news with the Private Placement--pretty incredible momentum right now.
    Peace,
    GG aka David on gumshoe
    24 Feb, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • budfish
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Glad to see this posting (picked it up on GS). It's bookmarked now. Thanks KSS for your VERY insightful and readable comments on GS.
    I am setting a buy to add to my existing position BNIKF @$1.64 (prior close) and again at 1.33 (2/20 close) and finally at 1.01 (rising 20dayEMA) if it does retreat that far after volume pulls back later in the next few weeks.

     

    budfish aka Walter on GS
    24 Feb, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • tgaiter
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    I too would like to buy a few more shares, but do you really think we will get a pullback to those levels if a very positive article is posted on SA in the next few days/week? Right now the number of investors with any idea of what Benitec could become has to be incredibly small. Agree?
    24 Feb, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • subrkaus3
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    I would love a pullback to load on Benitec! lets see if it happens!
    24 Feb, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • budfish
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    It pulled down today from a high of 2.19 to a low of 1.80 and finally closed at 1.83. That's a 16% range for the day. That's to be expected for a news driven bio stock. Another 10% down day will put it at the first target entry of 1.64. From there a couple of 10% drop days will get it to 1.32. By then it will be close to it's 20 day EMA and a final entry point. I expect that other traders who are watching will jump in at those support levels and drive the stock back up for a short term and then it will settle down and retrace, absent news of course. When it hits a support level one needs to act quickly as others will be buying and move it around. If news comes out, it will likely not hit any lower than the first support level, so that will be my larger size add to the position.
    24 Feb, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • tgaiter
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Budfish I agree with your take except for 1 thing. With each passing day, the number of people who find out about BNIKF, for the 1st time, dwarfs the previous day. Absolutely no mention in US yet. I don't think you see a settling for a few weeks and then not back to these levels. JMO
    25 Feb, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • budfish
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Time will tell us the result. It may not retrace to those specific levels, but it WILL retrace to some recent support level and that is where I will add, not here at these levels in the middle of the buying frenzy. Right now additional buyers are good for improving liquidity in this stock. Patience rewards the investor.
    25 Feb, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • budfish
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Looks like BNIKF is experiencing a pullback to first support level today. Added to holding.
    26 Feb, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • subrkaus3
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Great budfish! It is holding pretty strong as i see lot of new buying coming in!
    26 Feb, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • GrowthGeek
    , contributor
    Comments (898) | Send Message
     
    Two near term catalysts coming if my sources are correct: an article on SA and the first dosing of patients with the HepC injection. I agree with tgaiter that the stock is gaining geometrically in investor awareness espc. in the U.S. and this is also a catalyst, probably the most important one. Budfish, you are wise to wait on pull backs, but be careful that you don't miss the train leaving the station.
    26 Feb, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • budfish
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    GrowthGeek.....
    Thanks for the heads up on these catalysts. You are right on about the growing investor awareness on B which will add buying pressure on such a thinly traded stock, but I have almost completed my full size position now with the last buy at 1.66. Still have a GTC order in at 1.32 to finish off the rest.

     

    If the train does leave the station, there will always be another train later. I have a trading plan and I follow my discipline. Rule #1 is to protect capital. Rule #2 is to buy at support levels and sell at target levels which are usually major resistance price levels. In the case of bio stocks, sell points are harder to determine and I just watch for a parabolic spike up with high volume that will occur when buyers are exausted of their cash and see a profit in their accounts that cannot be resisted. I sell into that and wait for the inevitable pullback that will occur ( usually in the process of occuring at the end of the spike up) and then begin the process of re-entering the position in stages as the profit taking is underway. This is the strategy of market makers in stocks and you can see them doing their handy work by watching the price and volume action during break outs and break downs. They get paid very handsomely.
    27 Feb, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • pga2003
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Do you think they will actually make an announcement when first patient is dosed? Will we have to infer? Early to mid-March is the end of next week.

     

    Any announcements would have to have a positive effect on price.
    7 Mar, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • subrkaus3
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Well that is true! i am pretty sure Benitec will announce that they have dosed the first patient to keep the momentum in the market as everyone is looking forward to this trial! will be a huge year for HCV, ddRNAi!
    8 Mar, 10:08 AM Reply Like
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