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Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes is CEO, President and founder of Big Wave Trading Inc., a Maui, Hawaii-based stock market advisory service. Hayes is a well-respected stock trader who combines fundamentals, technicals, psychology and money management to trade professionally for his personal,... More
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    May 5, 2011 11:41 PM | about stocks: PCLN, GLD, SLV, OIL, BIDU, NFLX, AAPL, APKT, PAY, OPEN, CMG, UA, GOOG

    Since I have had zero new longs or shorts the past three days I decided to go ahead and make public what my subscribers have been reading for the past three days. Enjoy.

    after Thursday's stock market session:

    Did you see gold, silver, and oil today? Hallelujah! About freaking time these poverty creating rallies finally got the living crap kicked out of them. I for one am stoked about calling the SLV parabolic run right before it started to crash but I am even more tickled to see GLD and OIL follow suit today. All I can say is it is about time. Those index charts have taken some real heavy fast hardcore damage and I can only assume in a perfect world it is going to be a while before they get any kind of footing again whatsoever. You say there isn’t a perfect world? Damn. The market, once again, suffered another distribution day on the SP 500 and Nasdaq. These indexes are looking weak but nothing is too ugly yet. One big crack by either PCLN BIDU NFLX or AAPL and I am sure we will be off to the races on the downside. I am very confident that I am on the right side and have been cautious overall on the market for pretty much the entire time since March. However, we did have a FTD, and leading stocks were working, so I took the market rally bait and attempted to make some money. However, that led to last Thursday where I finally had enough of the cut losses. After being down 10% from my personal 2011 highs in my accounts and having an overall -4% return since December 15th, I decided to throw in the towel on the long side and visit the cash side. Wow! My timing seems to be perfect now and the charts were in fact not lying. There is some real trouble out there and unless we see an incredibily powerful accumulation day with the market up 3%, the damages to the leading stocks charts and now the damage to the leading SLV and GLD etfs are going to eventually pour over into the overall market. A big correction is needed and wanted by me. Why? Because you can’t make “big money” here. It is impossible. The freaking VIX is too low. We need a nasty selloff to get that VIX high so we can make some big money when we do start to rally again. You know for a fact I will not miss it and you should know by now I will make a ton of money when that finally happens. No more political bias is ever going to be involved in my trading again–I should have made more initially off the March 2009-June 2009 rally. The first time it infected it was 2008-2009. Thankfully by 2010 I realized Democrats and Republicans are both completely of the same ilk and there is truly no difference once you get them into office and they see the money from the corporations. Money talks and the bullshit they speak of walks. Just trade the charts. Speaking of charts I have one possible short: SSD. Too bad it doesn’t have a previous 100% gain or else it would be a short. Possible longs include: ONXX YOKU PANL and MLR. MLR is the best of the bunch in terms of CANSLIM quality but the stock is illiquid and thinner than my anorexic mother. I am kidding, she is bulimic. I am joking, she died in a horrible car crash last year and we all miss her. No that really didn’t happen. She is safe in St. Louis daytrading OTCBB penny stocks and actually making some money that she can later lose when she tries to dip buy the upcoming market selloff. This world is weird and definitely not fair. Good thing I don’t take it seriously at all.

    after Wednesday's stock market session:

    Market sure does feel heavy. I tell you what I feel better and better every day as we move forward here knowing that I have this right. There is something wrong with the market and right now the risk to the downside is much more than the possible reward of the upside. This suits me fine. The bad thing to do is to buy every dip after a heavy volume selloff on margin. That is one sure way to go broke fast when we do finally really crack wide open. It’s coming. I can see it in the charts. If the breakdown doesn’t come it will be by some miracle huge accumulation that I can not see coming any time soon. If that does happen you know I will immediately switch my stance and buy stocks if need be. However, I doubt that is going to be happening. We have a market getting sicker by the day. Any bounce will probably make great spots to sell into. My short scans increased greatly today and I assume that will only continue from here on out. Six more full sells tonight and I am now down to only 20 longs representing a total of around 10-25% invested in my portfolios. I am heavily cash and know I am on the right side. There are some possible trades tonight but I have no confidence in going long or short here. I have a feeling we will probably be more choppy here than have a straight downtrend swoon. I need to see a real break in the market to confirm the lagging leading stocks. Then I can start my bear side operations. Possible longs: CROX MSTR DIN JCP EGOV BLX possible shorts: TAM DFT.

    after Tuesday's stock market session:

    Boy oh boy. After today, I almost 100% convinced that my analysis on this overall market is indeed correct. We are going to enter an ugly correction. Today’s action in stocks like BIDU, PAY, WWWW, OPEN, BSFT, CMG, WLT, IL, GGC, UA, along with the recent action in AG, MKTX, ROK, TDSC, APKT, CPSI, GOOG, AAPL, tells me everything I need to know why I am lagging the market by so much since December 15, 2010. We are near the end of the uptrend from March 2009. At first I was mad I was lagging the market by so much and it came to a head last Thursday. Since Thursday I have seen the market get more and more suspicious and downright bearish looking at a leadership level. The recent cut losses completely tells me something is wrong. Along with this, many are still very bullish according to the II and AAII surveys. That along with a low VIX tells me there is way too much complacency out there. The bottom line is that it sucks being down 3% when the market is up 8.5%. But just a few days ago I was down 4% and the market was up 11%. So the gap has closed since then and if the market sells off heavy my -3% will pale in comparison to what is going to happen to this market with all the leadership buckling. PCLN and NFLX continue to hold up but I see signs of PCLN being way too extended since the 2009 lows and NFLX’s choppy action indicates to me there is trouble there also. Overall, I believe almost 100%, my analysis is perfectly correct. Since I have NEVER lagged an uptrend like this to the degree of a 15% parity, a major shift must indeed be underway. I am raising heavy cash and my remaining positions are very small, minus COO. I have no faith the market can hold up and will bide my time waiting for the fall to where I can start poking the past leaders on the short side. Then, when we get a real bottom, guess who will have all his capital and then some to put to work on the long side where the big gains can be made? Me. Also, if you don’t think certain stocks like PCLN are extended maybe you will change your mind when you look at SLV. On 4/25/11 I made comments in the chat room that SLV was looking very parabolic on a weekly arithmetic chart. Looks like that analysis was spot on. Charts work. When charts don’t work…some big change is about to happen.

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