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Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes is CEO, President and founder of Big Wave Trading Inc., a Maui, Hawaii-based stock market advisory service. Hayes is a well-respected stock trader who combines fundamentals, technicals, psychology and money management to trade professionally for his personal,... More
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  • Nasty Intraday Reversal Led By AAPL Sours Uptrend 0 comments
    Feb 16, 2012 6:42 AM | about stocks: AAPL, SPY, DIA, TZA, TVIX, TQQQ, TECL

    Positive economic data helped set the tone early for the market. Empire manufacturing and the Home Builders confidence survey both came in better than expected. By noon, the high of the day was set and AAPL's roll over pushing stocks lower. Volume jumped on the day over on the NYSE giving the S&P 500 another day of distribution. The magnitude of the roll-over gives the NASDAQ a distribution day, but it is only the second day. AAPL was the big disappointment of the day with GIGANTIC volume the stock has run into major resistance and does spell a bit of trouble for the market overall. While one day doesn't make a market we are certainly on watch with this uptrend, this type of action is not what you want to see.

    There are many reasons to like AAPL as a company. The stock is much different than the company itself. Removing emotion and opinions the move in AAPL today does resemble a possible top. Let the hate comments begin! In all honesty, it is too difficult to say AAPL's run is completely over, but for the time being it appears the upward momentum has come to a halt.

    It will take more than one day to knock this market off its kilter. Cluster in a few more distribution days it would certainly mark the end of the rally. A more likely scenario is a 3-5% pull back to digest all the recent gains we have seen from the market since December. One quick look at the QQQs and this rally has been non-stop! A normal reaction to this move is certainly warranted. If you have an exit strategy in place you already know what you are going to do. If you do not, the big question is why you haven't put one in place. Get one.

    Stay the course and stick with the game plan. We have had a nice run and perhaps it is time we see a pullback. What happens is anyone's guess, but with a plan we'll profit from it.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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