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Gary Tanashian
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Gary Tanashian is proprietor of Biiwii.com. Actionable, hype-free technical, macro economic and sentiment analysis is provided in the premium market report 'Notes From the Rabbit Hole' (http://biiwii.com/wordpress/about-nftrh/). Complimentary analysis and commentary is available at the public... More
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  • The Ending Of Twist 0 comments
    Nov 15, 2012 1:33 PM | about stocks: TLT, IEF, GLD, DBC, SPY, SLV

    From MarketWatch

    "The Federal Open Market Committee Fed's bond-purchase programs, known as Operation Twist, expires next month. Under the program, the Fed has been buying long-term Treasurys and selling its holdings of shorter-dated Treasurys, effectively "twisting" the yield curve that charts the gap in yields between different maturities.

    Investors expect the Fed to continue its buying of long-term Treasurys while letting the short-term sales expire, in effect expanding its program known as quantitative easing, or QE, beyond large-scale purchases of mortgage-backed securities - something to which the Fed's committed to doing as long as necessary."

    Below is a look at what the Twist manipulation has done as various items - and notably, gold - have been held in a corrective grip by the "sanitized" aspect of Twist, which does not increase the money supply. It is of course bald faced (in that it is very official and not just in the realm of Tin Foil Hatters) manipulation of something that has traditionally been a 'free market' indicator of systemic stress or lack thereof.

    (click to enlarge)

    Here's a compelling view by a log scale chart of gold dutifully following the yield spread.

    (click to enlarge)

    Both charts have been used in NFTRH, where we a deal in what is, not what should be. What is is a barbarous relic that also acts as monetary insurance and barometer of systemic problems towing the line with a yield curve whose structure has been manufactured.

    What happens if they terminate (or are forced to terminate by lack of short-term bond supply) this operation in December as the currently announced Twist phase ends? Well then, inflation may become just a little bit more honest.

    http://www.biiwii.com

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