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Gary Tanashian is proprietor of and Actionable, hype-free technical, macro economic and sentiment analysis is provided in the premium market report 'Notes From the Rabbit Hole' ( Complimentary analysis and commentary is available at the... More
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  • As The Debt Ceiling Kabuki Dance Starts Anew... 0 comments
    Sep 27, 2013 10:27 AM | about stocks: TLT, IEF, IEI, DIA, SPY, QQQ

    Inflation spigots are open and running 24/7…

    (click to enlarge)

    and an economy that needs to purge the excesses keeps resisting the inflation…

    (click to enlarge)

    Within this, we are in a phase where policy makers appear effective because at the margins the economy is creeping toward improvement. But in the big picture?

    (click to enlarge)

    We see a continuum of 1-2% growth in the variables that lead the economy, which appears to be 'just right', like Goldilocks' porridge. So we are back on trend and I guess everybody's happy.

    (click to enlarge)

    Well, don't let manufacturing payrolls cause undue concern. Automation is THING 1 in manufacturing today. I know this because I lived it for a few decades. Employment must be reduced and maximized for reasons of productivity.

    (click to enlarge)

    Overall Payrolls are coming back on trend, with changes in full/part time dynamics. But policy has been working toward improvement.

    (click to enlarge)

    See how hard policy is working? ZIRP keeps T Bills pinned with free money available to banks. Corporate profits are rising and so is the debt required to sustain the whole thing.

    So, do you think there is any question about what the politicians will end up doing in this year's edition of the Debt Ceiling Kabuki Dance? Politicians are politicians after all.

    Graphs courtesy of St. Louis Fed & SlopeCharts., Notes From the Rabbit Hole, Twitter, Free eLetter

    Stocks: TLT, IEF, IEI, DIA, SPY, QQQ
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