Gold will be the earliest mover to any new inflationary growth cycle. Right now it is forecasting that everything is due to ramp down in the interim. NFTRH has been following the equally weighted CCI commodity index consistently with the most recent feature being a breakdown from a small H&S targeting 555.
This level most certainly does not have to arrest the decline. It's just a target. A lower low from December breaks commodities.
The economic recovery has been built on destructive inflationary policy that came before, and ZIRP (and some handy yield curve manipulation) seems to be enough to sustain it to this point.
But the PM's and commodities forecast that this growth will be fleeting. When the big market corrects and throws a jolt into Main Street's voters we get ready for policy response and a decidedly different tone coming out of the MSM talking heads and policy makers themselves.
As for gold, it doesn't care whether economic growth will result from coming policy. All it cares about is that policy makers make the attempt. Gold miners actually benefit if inflationary policy is injected, but fails. They can only excel and be unique in economic contraction (for the 1,000th time, I know). Stuff like commodities care very much about whether policy will 'succeed' in creating another inflationary growth cycle.
Markets are now getting actionable and it is satisfying to finally have something big to manage. In my book, it is all about the big pivots and swings, not day or week trading. The last great pivot really, was in 2008. That's why patience and an attention span are important, at least in my preferred way of going about markets.