BGMI Provides Perspective On Gold Stocks - Gary Tanashian

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Gary Tanashian is proprietor of Biiwii.com. Actionable, hype-free technical, macro economic and sentiment analysis is provided in the premium newsletter Notes From the Rabbit Hole (http://www.biiwii.com/NFTRH/subscribe.htm). Complimentary analysis and commentary is available at the 'Biiwii Blog'... More

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BGMI Provides Perspective On Gold Stocks 0 comments

May 2, 2012 5:29 PM | about stocks: GDX, GDXJ

How can anyone look at this long term proxy for the gold sector and not be ready for volatility? Yet the Barron's Gold Mining Index is in a secular bull market that began in 2000 and no amount of griping by gold 'community' members during the savage down spikes can change that. It is best they keep griping though, because that is how a decent bottom can get made in this sector. Grind and agonize my friends.
People are getting tired of the erratic and painful activity of the last 1.5 years but that is a product of their own refusal to make adjustments and come to realizations that maybe the market will play things out in a longer term fashion than may seem convenient.
I was the guy hanging out there with the '3 Snowmen' target on HUI of 888+ when I was instructed to do so by a chart. Funny thing though, the Euro hysteria blew out, gold became over played and the gold sector did not hold its breakout. That's life and that's the markets. Adjustments were made upon confirmation of various negative signals.
But I am and have been bullish because this thing is in a secular bull. This chart says there could be more downside, but the risk vs. reward proposition is really good now. Shorter term indicators like the GDXJ-GDX ratio below and general sentiment are positive.
Yet our parameters are in place for short term risk tolerance. That said, I think a day like today is potentially bullish in that it keeps the more hype and momentum oriented gold bug captains under wraps. A real bottoming process takes time and it is an agonizing thing.
This whole thing of looking to gurus for definitive answers is an infantile way to go about market management when you think about it. Really, a smart person's rational mind knows that no single human has many more answers to future events than could be provided by throwing a dart. Yet still, the proud stock market tradition of guru-worship carries on in many quarters.
It's just weird... as may be this post upon reflection. :-)
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Themes: gold, gold stocks Stocks: GDX, GDXJ

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