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Gary Tanashian is proprietor of and Actionable, hype-free technical, macro economic and sentiment analysis is provided in the premium market report 'Notes From the Rabbit Hole' ( Complimentary analysis and commentary is available at the... More
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  • Gold Updated - Weekly View 0 comments
    Jul 17, 2012 8:29 AM | about stocks: GLD, IAU

    Only when Au breaks above the weekly EMA 35 (and holds it instead of being quickly reversed as it was on the break early in the year), triggers MACD and then confirms with a slower TRIX cross will gold be out of the woods technically.

    That is a Descending Triangle and it is running out of room (with the bottom line being the horizontal support zone in the low 1500's. DescTri's are usually bearish, but they are also usually 'continuation' patterns as opposed to the current would-be 'reversal' [ed: from up to down].

    But there is an alternate view and that involves a decline to the high 1400's, which if held, would reinforce the pattern as being a bullish Falling Wedge, not a DescTri.

    There is some bearish Descending Triangle hype out there (to go with the opposing 'gold to 3500 cause the system is falling apart!' hype).

    The reality is that the relic is an anchor to honest money and it has been beaten down systematically since the panicked momo's wrecked it last summer. 'WHAT'S WRONG WITH GOLD?!?!?' scream people who do not get the concept of patience.

    I happen to believe that gold first blew out from its own unhealthy sponsorship and then for some months now has been held down with the help of the Fed's manipulative policies in Treasury bonds. That's what I believe; fit me for a tin hat.

    But the pattern is tight, has relieved all of the previous unhealthy bull pressure and is in a much more healthy stance. Again, my guess is that gold will break down through the first support zone and then we watch to see if it finds support at the would be Wedge line in the 1400's (favored) or takes the express elevator to the next projected support in the 1300's.

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    Stocks: GLD, IAU
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