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Gary Tanashian is proprietor of and Actionable, hype-free technical, macro economic and sentiment analysis is provided in the premium market report 'Notes From the Rabbit Hole' ( Complimentary analysis and commentary is available at the... More
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  • Revisiting AAU & Other Notes 0 comments
    Aug 11, 2010 8:02 AM | about stocks: AAU, DIA, SPY, QQQ, GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ

    Just an FYI, I heard a significant newsletter writer recommended buying - with some risk caveats (goes with the territory in the exploration universe).  One look at the previously sedate yahoo message board for AAU confirms this.  It is now littered with pumpers, people speculating about take over suitors and stock pick wonder boys touting other stocks while the spotlight is on Almaden.

    In short, while I feel I went against my normal modus in selling a core holding (I was so used to just sitting on this well managed little company with the lower risk business plan), my main reason for doing so - yesterday's spike on top of the drill results spike the day before on NO news and the probability that someone pumped - is intact.

    This along with the broad markets looking like doo doo in pre-US open, reaffirms the tack of waiting, of patience.  For now.  When trading, I can become very impatient if my senses demand action and the move aligns with my bigger picture portfolio management.  See?  This is why I am not a day trader; too much thinking. 

    So, speaking of doo doo markets, look at old Uncle Buck this morning; cast aside by the nation's maniacal financial management team, Unc rises as the world apparently begins to question just what is so wrong that the Fed would talk so boldly - so matter of factly - about incestuous monetization of debt, which even regular folk know cannot work toward any good and healthy ends.

    It looks like the NFTRH plan is well on track this morning and if this mess fails, it is going to fail into opportunity.  Not since 2008 have I seen a time when it will be so critical to have your head screwed on straight and your ability to separate noise from actionable data well tuned.

    The gold-silver ratio will be the ultimate guide.  The USD needs to rise if the plan is to remain intact.  That would be the herd rejecting Bernanke's overtures toward compelling them to drive up asset prices as they repatriate to what they perceive as safety in USD and treasury bonds.  d Boys up next?

    I am sensing a new level of excitement and opportunity here.  Having run a volatile business for 20 years, extreme situations personally feel like second nature.  The herd on the other hand, does not like the whiff of fear one little bit.  If - and it is still early as one bad pre-market is just a hint -  but if this mess breaks the wedge and a couple days of the fear impulse get in the herd's bit, they are going to do what they always do; head for the opposite manic pole.

    Disclosure: No position.

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