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Over 15 years of investment experience. Long and short term horizons. Mostly focused on Technology industry.
  • Why Princeton Research Study On Facebook User Decline Is Absurd  1 comment
    Jan 27, 2014 7:57 AM

    Facebook has aptly responded through parody to Princeton Research study which includes using Facebook trends, Google scholar, etc, to conclude the satirical demise of Princeton by year 2021.

    The response clearly implies the absurdness of using Google search trend as a tool for concluding Facebook user growth to reduce by 80% of current users in 2017. Below are some less satirical observations on the study and Facebook growth:

    1. Google as a search tool for 'Facebook' stuff

      Although Google search is the dominant search tool for most things out there, it is not surprising that searching people and pages in Facebook, is on the decline as found out by the Princeton team. The main reason behind this can be contributed due to the ascending Facebook user adoption and using Facebook itself to do such types of searches. Google as a search tool for many other category of searches is also on the decline, e.g., Twitter is more useful for trending news, Amazon for products, etc. More on the subject of not using Google for such kind of searches captured well by Mark Cuban here.

    2. Facebook recent growth numbers

      Although there is a lot of merit to the teenagers moving to other services like SnapChat, Instagram ,etc, there is no indication based on recent growth of any real overall user decline as can be seen in below chart (click to enlarge)

    3. Facebook user growth opportunities ahead

      Facebook has big ambitions on getting the lion's share of the remaining world population on it's social network and is focused towards achieving that goal. The leadership has already executed well on various challenges including bringing over 1 billion users to it's platform and supporting the daily activities of such a large group, moving to mobile successfully, and the more recent monetizing of the platform with lots of care on user retention. It will not be surprising to see Facebook further grow based on the management team credibility.

    My conservative prediction of Daily Active Users on Facebook by 2017 year end based on a conservative 10% growth : over 1 billion

    Disclosure: I am long FB.

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  • Hans on Stocks
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    Author’s reply » Latest Daily Active Users based on Q4 2013 results that came in Jan 29th 2013 , two days after this article was published. DAU grew to 757 million compared to 728 million in Q3 2013.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Feb, 05:26 PM Reply Like
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