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Pannobhaso
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A researcher into gene silencing as a technology for improving the lives of those suffering from incurable diseases. Benitec Biopharma is my primary investment in this technology as ddRNAi offers one-time treatments for a broad range of these diseases.
  • The Aussie Rout 7 comments
    Apr 15, 2014 4:04 AM | about stocks: BNIKF

    Well Benitec Biopharma (OTCPK:BNIKF) got well and truly hammered on the ASX overnight! With the weakening sentiment about biotech in the US I would expect to see more selling of BNIKF today. The biotech sector is no stranger to volatility and Benitec is no exception to this.

    Adding to Benitec's woes is the company's inability to predict when events will occur. Having received IND approval from the FDA in January and predicting the start of the trial in early to mid March, then revising this forecast in March to "within weeks" only to be wrong again has clearly put doubt in the minds of some investors. While this is a serious shortcoming of management (they have done this previously) it is not the end of the world.

    The technology has not changed. The chance of finding cures for HIV, HCV, HBV, NSCLC, AMD and many other diseases has not changed. The company is cashed up, with enough capital to take the HCV trial to the Pllb stage and the NSCLC program to a Pl/lla stage. The first safety results for the HCV program should be known in Q3 2104 (not long to wait). Furthermore, early safety results from the Calimmune HIV trial could be announced at any time. In short, the many positives associated with the company are still very much intact.

    For those who are or wish to be long on Benitec, the downturn in sentiment is an opportunity.

    The other interesting news is the termination of Novartis's RNAi program. I have mentioned in previous articles that I thought Novartis may be a suitor for Benitec's Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer program. The termination of Novartis's in-house, siRNA NSCLC program I think adds weight to a possible buy-in from Novartis. NSCLC is clearly a disease area of interest to Novartis and (as I have said previously) the Benitec shRNA program is in advance of theirs. I suspect that the company will let Benitec do all the heavy lifting but, when the results of the Pl/ll trail start to filter through, they will declare their hand.

    The implied thread throughout these comments is that it will be results which determine the real value of the company and its attractiveness to the big players. The day to day share price will jump up and down but Benitec's potential will not (at least not in the short/medium term). Having been introduced to Benitec, can one afford to let daily price movements get in the way of the long term possibilities?

    Themes: Benitec, Novartis, shrna, biotech Stocks: BNIKF
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Comments (7)
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  • Artephius
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Very true Pannobhaso! Nothing has changed. Benitec still has superior tech and is on the precipice of how to treat (and cure) many diseases. Current selling is purely by those who have not done their research and have only recently jumped on due to Benitec's recent gains. They are only following the other 'panic' sheep. Benitec is a once in a lifetime buy opportunity. Sell now and you will never get this opportunity again.
    15 Apr, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Artephius
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Very true Pannobhaso! The tech which Benitec possess has not changed and is on the prepuce of changing how many diseases are treated. Current selling is clearly due to some holders not understanding the potential cures Benitec have at hand and purely selling to follow the other 'panic' sheep. Benitec is a once in a lifetime company to have the opportunity to buy. Sell now and you will not get this opportunity again.
    15 Apr, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • GreenGrowthGeek
    , contributor
    Comments (687) | Send Message
     
    Rather beat up today on tax day of all days--having to pay capital gains tax on the long term investments sold to purchase more Benitec (looks as if I should have waited for a down turn to buy but hindsight is always 20-20). I am not panicking as there will be more big up days ahead eventually. The short term pain isn't pleasant, but microcap biotech has many ups and downs. It's a marathon, not a sprint.
    15 Apr, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • SmokeyNYY
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    Looking to buy back in. Hopefully around 1$. Placement was around 1.07 AUD so that equates to something just shy of 1$. Had to take my profits from my buys in the .80's. Hopefully this train doesn't pull away without me!!
    15 Apr, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • A380
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    yes I'm looking at buying at about $1 too...very sad to see management can't get the dose timeline right.

     

    I feel this will sell down to at least the $1.07 mark in this biotech market, also because Benitec still has months before any results can be announced - I can't see it holding above $1.07 untill they are closer to safety results. The buzz has gone and sentiment has changed for Benitec for the moment.
    19 Apr, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • pga2003
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    The main problem is mgmts. lack of clear guidance, as mentioned by panno...you simply can't claim to be a clinical company and yet have no patients dosed, regardless of the reasons. In late Jan. early Feb. it was to be within weeks, that has morphed into months, with a CR and a press blitz designed to get mums and pops onboard or at least Benitec on their watch lists. If you were an average Joe who just got Benitec on their radar in the last couple of weeks because of the TV coverage, Yahoo Australia coverage and Australian newspapers and have been watching it, all you would see was a cliff dive. At what point does a failure to dose the first patient constitute a serious problem for mum and pop investors? June 1st? We should be talking about 12 week safety results now, not this. Shame on MGMT for poor guidance and an opportunity squandered to get to a next level. Most disturbing is the Benitec website, Pipeline page, HCV in house with arrow declaring themselves in CLININCAL stage when in fact they continue to languish in a PRE-CLINICAL search for candidates.

     

    I believe in the science despite the Kay paper denegrating the vector. I am starting to not believe in MGMT. They have had enough free passes.

     

    Also, what happened with the trading halt last night? No reason? PF and co. need to update shareholders ASAP...the mums and pops have kept this company afloat, not RA Capital, and the mums and pops would have participated in the recent Capital Raising if we had a chance.

     

    Eventually, Novartis, Pfizer et. al. will be coming along with a big check in their hand if and when CLINICAL results start coming in. But at what point does MGMT's feet get held to the fire for their lack of becoming a clinical company?

     

    I say....... within weeks!
    15 Apr, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • pga2003
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Trading halt of ten minutes ...just so all investors can read announcement....???
    15 Apr, 08:25 PM Reply Like
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