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Riding Projection for Canada's Federal Election

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Momentum with Layton ... Harper 8 Shy with 8 days to go

Copyright ~ April 29 2011 delayed FreeVenue public release of April 26th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ ElectionCanada reports weekend advance polls beat previous turnouts by 30% - the electorate is certainly engaged! Sentiment eight days out from the May 2nd Vote reveals momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (22 MP gain) mostly at the expense of the Greens, BQ, Liberals & CPC. This episode reminds of the post-debate surge by UK's Clegg last year - but he fizzled before folks made it to the ballot box.

May Second can't come fast enuf for the governing Party considering soon-to-surface economic issues. Tuesday's figures from the Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day. But then seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire. Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Crude Price could be $140/barrel by the Summer. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel. The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil breaches $108/barrel. Should the economy survive those headwinds, we are certain Bank of Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about 1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble. So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the horizon?

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections each month since October 2004. One of these models is our own conversion ... it being the most accurate of 17 in Canada's 2008 Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 141 Ridings, followed by: 82 Liberals, 42 BQ, 41 NDP & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above. Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 9 national polls conducted April 12-24 by 14 international projection models. It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 147 Seats, the Liberals in 70. The NDP & Bloc sit at 53 & 37 potential Ridings respectively, plus one Indep't. Finally, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be 8 MPs shy (147) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by: 78 NDP, 55 Liberals, 27 BQ & 1 Indep't.

Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable and subject to the dynamics common to the lead-up and within Election Campaigns.