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Freddy Hutter, TrendLines Research
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As a data analyst, Freddy Hutter of Trendlines Research provides guidance in chart format on the specialties of peak oil, realty bubbles, baseline GDP projections and election predictions. Virtually each day an update is published to the website's MemberVenue. All charts are made publicly... More
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  • Riding Projection for Canada's Federal Election 4 comments
    Apr 29, 2011 5:25 AM
    click to enlarge
    click to enlarge
    Momentum with Layton ... Harper 8 Shy with 8 days to go

    Copyright ~ April 29 2011 delayed FreeVenue public release of April 26th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ ElectionCanada reports weekend advance polls beat previous turnouts by 30% - the electorate is certainly engaged! Sentiment eight days out from the May 2nd Vote reveals momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (22 MP gain) mostly at the expense of the Greens, BQ, Liberals & CPC. This episode reminds of the post-debate surge by UK's Clegg last year - but he fizzled before folks made it to the ballot box.

    May Second can't come fast enuf for the governing Party considering soon-to-surface economic issues. Tuesday's figures from the Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day. But then seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire. Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Crude Price could be $140/barrel by the Summer. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel. The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil breaches $108/barrel. Should the economy survive those headwinds, we are certain Bank of Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about 1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble. So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the horizon?

    The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections each month since October 2004. One of these models is our own conversion ... it being the most accurate of 17 in Canada's 2008 Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 141 Ridings, followed by: 82 Liberals, 42 BQ, 41 NDP & 2 Indept's.

    When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above. Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 9 national polls conducted April 12-24 by 14 international projection models. It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 147 Seats, the Liberals in 70. The NDP & Bloc sit at 53 & 37 potential Ridings respectively, plus one Indep't. Finally, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be 8 MPs shy (147) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by: 78 NDP, 55 Liberals, 27 BQ & 1 Indep't.

    Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable and subject to the dynamics common to the lead-up and within Election Campaigns.

    Themes: canada, election, economy
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  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4555) | Send Message
    While in the following opinion piece, Canrad Black (a generally conservative commentator) is typically and unduly condescending towards the people of Quebec, I suggest he is very close to the mark in his prediction of the May 2nd election outcome. Turning to his prediction of an NDP-Liberal merger, I doubt this will happen (given the over 80 years of competition and different, if overlapping, segments of society to which each appeals) but it will be seriously considered and ongoing bases for co-operation and alliance may result.




    The following opinion piece illustrates that the NDP is not outside the broad consensus of Canadian political thought.

    1 May 2011, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Bob, thanx for the links - a chart update including Sunday's three opinion polls has been Instablogged tonite. It will be an exciting nite, eh.
    2 May 2011, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4555) | Send Message
    Thanks Freddy –


    Here are some well crafted final projections and polls by organizations that have proven to have been fairly accurate (keeping in mind that such prediction and snapshot exercises are only somewhat better than astrology) in past elections. For what its worth, I think the first one is spot on. On the other hand, the Conservatives traditionally do better on election day than polls indicate (this being so because older and more prosperous voters tend show up to vote more than other segments of the population) and this would support the projection of a Conservative majority in the third one.


    The great unknowns this time are whether the Liberal Party support in Ontario will hold up enough in ridings where the Conservatives are the main challenger to Liberal incumbents and whether the NDP can actually get their supporters out to vote for them in Quebec. It really is going to be an interesting night.







    2 May 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Your first link is one of the 14 included in our Avg. Milton has been hot & cold. In the 2008 election his forecast was 13th of 16 practitioners!


    Our final tally was Instablogged a few moments ago:
    2 May 2011, 07:41 PM Reply Like
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