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Freddy Hutter, TrendLines Research
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As a data analyst, Freddy Hutter of Trendlines Research provides guidance in chart format on the specialties of peak oil, realty bubbles, baseline GDP projections and election predictions. Virtually each day an update is published to the website's MemberVenue. All charts are made publicly... More
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  • TRENDLines Recession Indicator: March/2011 USA update 0 comments
    Jun 30, 2011 6:49 PM
    click to enlarge ... more macro economic charts @ my Instablog & website
    click to enlarge ... more macro economic charts @ my Instablog & website

    TRI infers USA GDP slips to 4.2% in March (Q1)

    June 30 2011 delayed public FreeVenue release of March 29th guidance @ the TRENDLines MemberVenue ~ The Trendlines Recession Indicator continues to reveal a stable economic recovery - one partly founded on fiscal stimulus ... and the remainder a rejuvenation of the normal business cycle.  March's (Q1) GDP growth rate is gauged at 4.2% pace, down from 4.8% in February.  The TRI's leading indicators are presently projecting 3.6% Real GDP in Q2 & 3.5% for Q3.  All observations are higher than last month.  Similarly, BEA on Friday upward revised Q4's Real GDP annualized growth rate to 3.1% (TRI = 4.3%).

    In the realm of unintended consequences, it is increasingly apparent the failure by Congress to extinguish the Bush Tax Cuts has met a terrible reception by international investors.  Together with the Obama Administration's decision to unveil a record $1.5 trillion Deficit (9.7% of GDP), these measures have been construed as a signal there is little will to address the USA's looming structural deficits.  This failure in fiscal management has caused a resumption of the secular decline of the USDollar.

    This debasement commenced in January 2002 and is today responsible for a $17/barrel component in the pricing of crude oil.  While the falling USDollar will have beneficial effects on the export sector, crude continues to be in breach of the Oil/GDP ratio (marked today by the $91/barrel threshold) which in the past has decimated Light Vehicle Sales.  Similarly, a new round of G-20 Recessions can be expected upon sustained crude prices over the $109/barrel mark.


    GDP Targets  (2011/3/29)



      2010Q4 4.3 %  
      2011Q1 4.2 %  
      2011Q2 3.6 %  
      2011Q3 3.5 % 
      2011Q4 3.4 % 
      2012Q1 3.2 % 
      2012Q2 3.0 % 
      2012Q3 2.8 %  
      2012Q4 2.9 % 
      2013Q1 2.9 % 
      - - 
      2017Q3 end of cycle 

    TRI has a fuzzy horizon of 8 quarters.  The view of the future is dynamic and is subject to and guided by current/future mitigation activity by the Fed & Treasury Secretary via monetary/fiscal policy, geopolitical and weather related events.  Today's outlook reveals most of 2012 has deteriorated by over 1% due to the dampening effects on the economy of protracted high petroleum prices.  At this time, TRI is projecting a GDP target of only 2.9% in 2013Q1 and an absence of the normal 6% cresting on the medium term.  Finally, Monetary Policy enacted by the Fed & the Treasury Secretary's guidance to Congress with respect to Fiscal Policy will determine whether the current cycle's contraction bottom in 2017Q3 will be a hard or soft landing.

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