Jolly_Rancher's  Instablog

The last time I hawked Mannkind shares they were trading at $3.60. They are now trading at $5.50, but a funny thing happened on the way to the forum, so to speak. The shares traded all the way past $12 then the company filed an 8K stating that partnership discussion would be tabled until the company's lead product, Afresa, is approved in January 2009 -- which is four months away. That's a pretty severe drop in share price in response to a measly 4 month partnership postponement, and tells me the degree of skepticism among big investors in this company's product. The price today assigns roughly a 30% probability that Al Mann, the company's colorful billionaire Chairman and CEO, will actually be able to finalize a partnership. However, the fact of the matter is that nothing much has changed with this company's prospects. Afresa is on target for approval by its PDUFA date of January 16, 2010. The next generation inhaler, newly developed since my last blog, will probably only be required to undergo by the FDA a three month bioequivalency study before marketing. This new inhaler requires 30% less insulin than the Medtone inhaler, is smaller, and much more stylish. In other words, Afresa will reach blockbuster status not just because it is inhalable, and not just because it is a better insulin, but because the associated device is stylish. Patients will want it. The latest survey of physicians and endocrinologists by an independent marketing firm (paid for by Mannkind) indicated that 25% would prescribe Afresa to their patients making Afresa a blockbuster multi-billion revenue per year product. Don't believe me? Hey, who hawks stocks after a huge sell-off. Think about it. And who has the guts to buy and hold for huge returns?