Kirk Lindstrom's  Instablog

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untrusting investor Comments (9879)
 
Well if you think your S&P and WLI overlay chart, which pretty closely track each other, have any validity whatsoever, you are pretty nuts to be long the market.

If not, then what is the point of your article? Or are you counting of some other factors not indicated in your article? Always thought engineers followed the evidence in arriving at a conclusion. But apparently the evidence of the S&P/WLI overlay is somehow meaningless.
23 Jul 2010, 05:26 PM Reply Like

Kirk Lindstrom Comments (498)
 
"Well if you think your S&P and WLI overlay chart, which pretty closely track each other, have any validity whatsoever, you are pretty nuts to be long the market. "

You are falsely assuming I believe the market follows WLI. In fact, I believe it is exactly the opposite.

"If not, then what is the point of your article? "

To point out a strong correlation.
24 Jul 2010, 10:25 AM Reply Like

untrusting investor Comments (9879)
 
Kirk,
So the WLI is a lagging indicator, is that what you are saying? Hmmm, not what ECRI claims, nor is it what the term leading indicator means. Perhaps the many thousands of customers of ECRI should request a refund of the millions they pay in subscription fees for leading indicator information and simply look at the free daily S&P chart moves to infer what direction the economy or markets are heading. So would guess that somehow you think the downward trend of the S&P, which is clear on the chart, has reversed into an uptrend based on a few days of price movement. Maybe so and maybe not, but nothing in the WLI would support that conclusion. Your point seems to be that the S&P is the leading indicator and that WLI is just a useless indicator or metric that simply mirrors the S&P.

Would you care to try and prove that with a valid data and statistical analysis that supports your assertion that changes in the S&P lead changes in the WLI, as opposed to visa-versa? It just might be worth your while, as you could save all the ECRI subscribers many millions of dollars in subscription fees and maybe convince them to divert those millions to your newsletter and your superior forecasting methods.
24 Jul 2010, 11:51 AM Reply Like

Kirk Lindstrom Comments (498)
 
I think you need to read ECRI's book. WLI is a leading indicator for the economy. The markets are ALSO OFTEN a leading indicator for the economy. What the markets do week-to-week are part of what makes up WLI. Market data is in real time. ECRI releases their index a week later.

I don't forecast the economy. Their record speaks for itself. Stick with ECRI. I pick great stocks that do well over time and I trade their volatility based on many factors for added return. My record speaks for itself.
25 Jul 2010, 09:51 AM Reply Like