Good read on Morningstar's site regarding tactical "market timing": advisors.morningstar.com/advisor/t/71506...;single=true
As purveyors of TAA - tactical asset allocation - research, we completely agree that there should be the opportunity for improving the risk-return profile of investors through actively managing one's major asset class allocations over time. What the article gets correct is that this is very difficult to do, and something most mutual fund managers have proven not to be adept at. The approach can certainly not be based on simply tracking one or two indicators or following a trend. You can read all about our approach at parmodel.com
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.