Seeking Alpha

The Simple Acco...'s  Instablog

The Simple Accountant
Send Message
Harry Fotopoulos, "the Simple Accountant" is a twenty+ year veteran of corporate accounting and finance, much of it in manufacturing, but also including a stint with a tech startup. Harry manages two separate portfolios, one focused on current income, the other on total return. A... More
My blog:
Trading with Harry
  • Looking Back at May and Ahead to June 0 comments
    Jun 1, 2011 10:45 AM | about stocks: SPY, VTI, IWM, AGG, BND, IEF, DBC
    On May 1st (Sunday) my weekly outlook article on Seeking Alpha considered whether this would be a good year to follow the old market dictum: sell in May and go away.

    My recommendation then was to sell commodities and hold stocks and bonds. Let’s see how that might actually have worked out using the most widely held ETFs as proxies for these asset classes. June price returns were

    Common Stocks (NYSEARCA:SPY); 1.12% loss
    Multi Sector Bond (NYSEARCA:AGG); 1.24% gain
    Commodities (NYSEARCA:DBC); 5.17% loss

    All in all not a bad call; a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds broke even on a capital basis and holders collected some dividends for their trouble. My preferred proxy for a drop dead simple portfolio, the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (MUTF:VBINX) was minus 0.18% in May.

    As we get into June, poor economic data is beginning to accumulate, and bond yields are continuing to fall in surprising fashion. In my most recent SA article I forecast a 2 handle on 10 year Treasury yields; as of this writing we are already there. The ability of the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 to remain above support levels, at 1340 and 840 respectively, is something I am watching closely.

    I am not bearish on stocks at this moment. We could be seeing these indexes (and a number of leading stocks) building new bases at current levels…but an inability to break out to new highs, or a break down through 1300 on the SPX and 810 on the RUT – especially with volume – would turn my outlook to negative.

    Commodities still look like a sell to me. For bonds, I expect to see the ten year get to 2.6 – 2.8%.
    Stocks: SPY, VTI, IWM, AGG, BND, IEF, DBC
Back To The Simple Accountant's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • Following two days after big selloff in XLV, XLP sells on heavy volume. The gap was a little narrower, but it was a big distribution day.
    May 25, 2011
  • Health Care SPDR XLV gapped down on big volume today.
    May 23, 2011
  • US Dollar index re-tests bottom, holds above Oct. 17 low and key 76 level...for now
    Nov 4, 2010
More »

Latest Comments

Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.