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Leif Peterson
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  • Is Zack's "What's Next for the Market" Realistic? 0 comments
    Jul 15, 2010 4:39 PM | about stocks: SPY, GLD
    I just opened an e-mail from Zack's Research, which goes as follows:

    "Dear Investor,

    Sentiment on The Street has begun to turn positive as the stock market has enjoyed a sustained 7 day rallyFears of a double dip recession are subsiding as companies report better than expected earnings this week.

    The BP oil well has been capped, and durability testing is underway which proved to be a strong psychological hurdle for the market, and seems to have renewed hope that better times are ahead.

    Update In Brief

    Corporate cash and equivalent assets as a percentage of total assets are at their highest level in decades. This is a vast improvement from 2008 when we had a highly leveraged corporate sector
    As recovery in the market slowly continues, positive signs that the economy is also well on its way are beginning to firm upTreasury rates have maintained their historic low levels for some time now, which of course begs the question of what the Federal Reserves short term move may be, if anything."

    After reading this, I considered some recent issues surrounding the economy and markets, and therefore wondered how how realistic the report wasMy recent evaluation indicates the following conditions:

    1Gold is approaching very overbought levels.
    2The daily SP500 volume is going down while price return is increasing.  
    3The ratio of gold (GLD) to the SP500 price return suggests very little gain of the SP500 in terms of "real money" over the last decade
    4Monthly unemployment is not dropping substantially.
    5Those unemployed have not found work for the last 1-2 years.  
    6Taxation on dividends is increasing at the end of the year
    7. You can still purchase a new automobile with no down payment, 0% interest, and no payments for several years.    
    8Health care reform is going to be very expensive to fund, and the component involving free care coverage will require new money (debt) to be printed.  
    9A very large proportion of US states (~75-80%) have economies that are not better than Greece's economy.   
    10Basically, Gov't spending is "on steroids" at a time when it should be frugal.

    Interestingly, by way of technical analysis, the Ichimoku chart (below) of the weekly SP500 showed a weak sell signal on 7/2The last time this happened was the week ending 9/21/2007 -- almost 3 years ago

    Through trading discipline, I have learned not to disagree with the Ichimoku weekly chart of the SP500, as the weekly chart has never abruptly done an about face within several weeks after a signal -- mostly due to the momentum of 500 stocks.  Instead, the directionality of the markets signaled by Ichimoku became more extreme for a while. In light of this weekly-based signal, you might keep some "powder dry" for quite a while.

    Disclosure: Long cash, short-term Treasuries
    Stocks: SPY, GLD
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