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Brian Bain
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Brian is the founder and lead writer for INVESTOR IN THE FAMILY LLC and All-Star contributor at Scutify. At INVESTOR IN THE FAMILY LLC (http://investorinthefamily.com/), Brian maintains an active portfolio for subscribers in addition to publishing research for readers on Seeking Alpha. His focus... More
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  • Beware The Bear 0 comments
    Aug 18, 2014 9:11 AM | about stocks: AGG, IEF, PFF, SPY, TLT, VNQ, XLU, DIA, GILD, IWM, M, QQQ, RRGB, WMT

    I remain bullish overall on the market, but as my readers know, I am currently waving the caution flag. With the recent dives in high-yield bonds and small cap stocks, there are reasons to be short-term fearful. That said, things seem to be stabilizing a bit.

    All the same, once this jittery period passes, I expect the bull to keep charging for some time before the big bear wins his next major victory. In the meantime, I want us to keep our radars up for warning signs.

    Eric Parnell has been a favorite go-to for me when it comes to bear market awareness and concerns. His latest article has a heavy focus on bonds:

    "Despite all of the persistent fears and expectations that bond interest rates can go nowhere but higher in the year ahead, the bond market is telling a different story. U.S. Treasuries have been rallying well so far in 2014, and it seems that those that are driving this push lower in yields are not deeply concerned about the possibility of higher rates. Instead, it seems that the consensus view from the bond market is that the economy is set to remain sluggish and while QE3 may soon be coming to an end, which is historically bullish for bonds, the Fed will be reluctant to take the next step and actually raise rates any time soon. And for those stock investors that are allocated to sectors that are particularly sensitive to higher interest rates, this is not only a welcome development but may present some attractive buying opportunities along the way."

    Enjoy the full article: A Market That Defies All Expectations

    Another great resource, Bret Jensen, wrote late last week of his concerns:

    "These are just three core worries I have right now on the domestic equity markets. The biggest, I did not mention as I have covered it before in several recent articles. It is simply the market suffered double digit dives after the end of "QE1" and "QE2" and that was when the market was trading at lower multiples. Will the end of "QE3" bring a different result?

    My gut tells me are that it will not. This is why I have upped my cash allocation to 25% to 30% in my portfolio since the end of the first half of 2014. I have also sold just out of money call options on almost all of my growth selections, with the notable exception of Gilead Sciences (GILD) which I believe go higher except in a very deep market sell-off.

    Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. This is one of those times and now is the time for caution. There is a high probability the market will offer prudent investors lower entry points in the near future."

    Enjoy the full article: Yes, Me Worry

    To follow us more closely at Investor in the Family, be sure to subscribe by entering your info in the field to the right of this article and follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Scutify, and even Pinterest.

    Disclosure: I have no positions.

    Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. All readers must be responsible for and make their own investing decisions. Each reader bears the full responsibility for any decision to buy, sell, or hold any securities, precious metals, real estate, or other asset class as well as any decision regarding the starting or running of a business. Nothing in this newsletter is to be considered a formal recommendation. Investor in the Family LLC makes no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by Investor in the Family LLC will be met. Please see full Disclaimer.

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Themes: Stocks, Investing, Market Outlook, Bonds Stocks: AGG, IEF, PFF, SPY, TLT, VNQ, XLU, DIA, GILD, IWM, M, QQQ, RRGB, WMT
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