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David White is a software/firmware/marketing professional and a long time investor. He has worked in the networking field, the semiconductor equipment field, the mainframe computer field, and the pharmaceutical/scientific instrumentation field. He has bachelor's degrees in bioresource sciences... More
  • Sell Off Into The Weekend Seems Likely 5 comments
    Jun 11, 2009 1:46 PM | about stocks: SPY, USO, OIH

    It's about 1:38pm ET. The W.H.O. has declared Swine Flu a pandemic.Fed Goverenor Lockhart has said the investors are getting ahead of themselves. Friady is tomorrow. The Unemployment news still had 601K new claims. The retail sales figures seemed good at first glance, but were actually very bad. The seemingly good part was caused by the higher gas prices, plus the higher number of car sales due to dealerships going out of business. Generally retail numbers looked bad for the everyday retailers. Hence they were bad for the economy. The business inventories were down more than expected (-1.1%). this is hardly the sign of an upswing in the making. The market has started to turn. I am betting there will be a big sell off this afternoon. The market ran up 200 points from its bottom today to its high. Time to give back some. This is not a red letter news day. Oil is also still going up. Most people believe this will hurt the US recovery at the current prices (and they are going up). Get ready for a wild ride today and tomorrow.

    Stocks: SPY, USO, OIH
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  •  
    To clarify, Fed governor Lockhart said he sees signs that the economy "may" be stabilizing. However, he does not see signs of recovery yet. He, at this time, expects to see signs of recovery in 2H 2009.
    11 Jun 2009, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Lockhart also said the number of problem banks is likely to increase, but confidence that the banking system was healing was justified. He thought business activity may not have troughed yet. He thought rising yields on Treasurys may signal market fears.

    To me this all means the technical indicators, which indicate the markets are overbought, are likely correct (or at least that Lockhart is agreeing with them).
    11 Jun 2009, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The US Dollar index is down over 1% today. It has generally been going down through these Treasury auction days. Oil has generally been going up during that time. I am looking for that to change Friday. There are no big Treasury auctions that I know of on Friday. This should take the pressure off the US Dollar. It seems likely to recoup a little of its recent losses. After all Europe and Japan are in trouble too. This will likely pressure oil prices to the downside tomorrow. It may well pressure tech stocks to the downside too. This may mean a very down day is in the offing for tomorrow. Given that a lot of people often sell off into the weekend, this situation could make for a very bad day on the heals of the Swine Flu being declared a pandemic.
    11 Jun 2009, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The sell off did not materialize on Friday. I thought it was about to in the afternoon. Almost at that exact moment news came out that the more moderate Iranian presidential candidate, Mousavi, had won. This spurred the markets to new heights.

    Now that the weekend is here, President Ahmadinejad is claiming an overwhelming victory (62.6% to 33.75%). Mousavi is claiming the election was rigged. The supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urged people to unite behind President Ahmadinejad. There is civil unrest in Iran.

    If the market went up on a believed Mousavi win, it will likely go down Monday on a possibly fabricated Ahmadinejad win and civil unrest. Clearly the hatred for the Jews and the West, Ahmadinejad, is being backed by the religious leadership. This is not what the market wants to hear.
    13 Jun 2009, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  •  
    long term investor in iron ore, gold, copper, oil
    19 Mar 2010, 05:56 PM Reply Like
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