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Allan Harris
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After practicing law for way too long, I moved my family to the beach (Kiawah Island, South Carolina) to trade stocks for a living. After making and blowing a fortune in the technology bubble of the 1990's (and then again in 2006-08), I discovered the art and science of trend following. In... More
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  • Got Flu? 5 comments
    Aug 21, 2012 8:38 PM | about stocks: NNVC.OB

    NanoViricides (NNVC) has developed an array of anti-viral drug candidates that after a series of successful testing of efficiency in the lab are now being tested in animal models. If successful in animal models, the next phase will be human testing. They have been administering the drug through IV injection and more recently have been testing an oral formulation. Being able to take a pill instead of being injected is the difference between Hillary Clinton and Angelina Jolie.

    On August 13, 2012 NNVC announced, "...that anti-influenza drug candidates under its FluCide™ program, when given orally, were nearly as effective as when administered as IV injections." In other words, there was not much difference in results that were achieved between IV injections and oral administration. Big deal?

    No, the big deal was announced yesterday, August 20th:

    NanoViricides Reports That Oral Administration of FluCide® Anti-Influenza Drug Candidates Led to Survival Improvements Comparable to IV Administration and Was Far Superior to Oseltamivir, in a Highly Lethal Animal Model

    'The survival data clearly show that oral as well as IV administration of FluCide drug candidates was substantially superior to oseltamivir. In addition, they show that FluCide drug candidates when given orally had substantial efficacy, almost matching the effectiveness of the injectable form given at 0.3X of the oral dosage level."

    Oseltamivir is commonly known as Tamiflu. The most recent sales numbers I could find were from 2009:

    "Tamiflu is sold by Roche Pharmaceuticals (RHHBY). Sales in the first quarter 2009 were $347 million worldwide, of which Roche noted that $264 million were pandemic stockpiling and $84 million were from seasonal use."

    How effective is Tamiflu in the treatment of common influenza?

    On average, oseltamivir reduces the duration of symptoms by one and a half days if treatment is started within forty-eight hours of the beginning of symptoms.

    Does Tamiflu have any side effects?

    The most frequent side effects of oseltamivir are nausea,vomiting, diarrhea, bronchitis, abdominal pain, headache and dizziness.

    As for NNVC's FluCide, in the most lethal form of influenza it doubled the survival rates as compared to Tamiflu.

    "We are seeing an extremely high level of oral effectiveness. We now know that FluCide can be developed as an oral drug for out-patient influenza," said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company, adding, "Many drugs are commercialized as oral drugs even if the oral dose needed is as high as five times the injectable dose."

    Monday's announcement goes on:

    No adverse effects were found, indicating that the FluCide dose could be increased further to achieve much greater levels of effectiveness.

    Now the good news. NNVC has a market cap of under $100M. While NNVC has relentlessly pursued it's vision of an anti-viral paradigm changing medical miracle, loyal shareholders have suffered through years of a fickle marketplace, dotted with ruthless short sellers and dilutive offerings.

    NANOVIRICIDE'S TIME HAS COME

    I saved the very best for last. NNVC is trading at $0.58 and it's chart resembles the slope and terrain of the expert runs at Aspen. But even the worst looking chart can hide a butterfly in the making. NNVC is about to emerge from a seven year cocoon. Let's see how she flies.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long NNVC.OB.

    Additional disclosure: I first bought NNVC in 2005 between 8-10c. Along the way I have sold some for as much as $3.00 and change, bought more at $0.44-0.50, sold some at about $2.00 and have held on to the remaining shares, having probably what amounts to a zero basis.....or less. I am likely to buy more in the coming year.

    Themes: Biotechnology; Nanotechnology Stocks: NNVC.OB
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  •  
    Allan,

    I've been in NNVC for close to a year. Any insight on the timing of human trials? They've supposedly had an application in (or threatening to file one) for about six months. I would think that the trials, once started, shouldn't take too long, as we're not talking about a cure for cancer that takes years to watch unfold. The efficacy and side-effect time frame should be weeks, not years.

    And a more general question....where/how do you find info on this company? Hard to find and trust.
    28 Aug 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The company is very response to shareholder inquiries and questions about time frames should be directed to management. One of the very best ways to keep updated on progress is to read carefully each press release and spend some time at the company's web site. Pay special attention to the quarterly SEC filings as they contain a wealth of information.
    12 Sep 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Moment of truth... hope its up from here, but you never know with this stock. I love the idea and technology which seems to be working like a charm!
    11 Oct 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I posted a NNVC NanoViricides TA Update with graphs at:
    http://bit.ly/PIMVFS

    My last newsletter trade was to buy shares at 55ยข.
    11 Oct 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Sorry to hear, Kirk, especiallly since they keep increasing the float exponentially...
    25 Dec 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
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