Chris Vermeulen's  Instablog

Chris Vermeulen
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Follow My LIVE CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1992897 Get My Intraday Comments & Ideas Instantly: http://stocktwits.com/TheTechnicalTraders Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading analysis website http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com. There he shares his highly successful,... More
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  • How Much Will A 15% Hair Cut Cost Your ETF Portfolio? 0 comments
    Mar 5, 2014 2:49 PM | about stocks: IYT, DIA, SPY

    Over the past few weeks I have been watching the DOW and Transportation index closely because it looks and feels like the Dow Theory may play out this year and the stock market could take a 15% haircut.

    But what if you skipped on the haircut and opted for a 40% refund? What? Keep reading to find out how.

    Keeping this post short and sweet, I think the US stock market is setting up for a sharp selloff. And it will look a lot like the July 2011 correction. If my calculations are correct this will happen in the next 3-9 weeks and we will see a 15% drop from our current levels. Only time will tell, but I have a way to hedge against this with very little downside risk to youETF portfolio.

    The Dow Theory Live Example for ETF Portfolio

    The daily chart of the SP500 index below shows our current trend analysis with green bars signaling an uptrend, orange being neutral, and red signaling bearish price action. Currently the bars are green and we can expect prices to have an upward bias.

    The Dow Theory could be in play. When both the Transports (NYSEARCA:IYT) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) cannot make higher highs and start making lower lows, according to the Dow Theory the broad stock market is topping.

    We are watching the market closely because they have both made lower highs and lows. This rally could stall in the next couple weeks and if so we expect a 15% correction.

    (click to enlarge)

    Take a look at the 2011 Stock Market Crash

    (click to enlarge)

    The chart above shows how fearful traders have a delayed reaction to moving money from stocks to a mix of risk-off assets.

    The choppy market condition during August and September clearly helped in frustrating investors and created more uncertainty. This helped prices of this ETF portfolio fund rally long after the initial selloff took place. This is something I feel will take place again in the near future and subscribers of my ETF newsletter will benefit from this move.

    Because we have a Dow Theory setup, our risk levels are clearly defined as to when to exit the trade if it does not play out in our favor. But with the potential to make 40% and the downside risk only being 4%, it's the perfect setup for a large portion of our ETF portfolio. And just so you know this is not a precious metals trade as we are already long that sector and up 10% in that position already.

    Get My Daily Video Forecasts & ETF Trades Today - Get Off The Fence Make Your ETF Portfolio Perform

    Chris Vermeulen

    www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

    Stocks: IYT, DIA, SPY
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