Steven Hansen's  Instablog

Steven Hansen
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Steven Hansen is an international business and industrial consultant specializing in turning around troubled business units; consults to governments to optimize process flows; and provides economic indicator analysis based on unadjusted data and process limitations.
My company:
Econintersect LLC
My blog:
Global Economic Intersect
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  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11237) | Send Message
    "Please folks, just look at the ADP report and call it good."


    Interesting.. I use a momentum model of private sector growth for predicting recessions...
    the momentum is not based on the establishment survey but the ADP
    8 Sep 2012, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (4050) | Send Message
    Steve's article on the BLS report has a graph and discussion of backward revisions to the NFP numbers from the BLS:


    The ADP report is not subject to backward revisions and the eventual BLS data has an almost perfect correlation with ADP except at the turning points (going from employment increasing to declining and vice versa).


    The correlations with BLS data when announced is significantly poorer.


    Using the ADP employment growth is better for real time assessments. Looking at history, either series will give results of equal value.
    8 Sep 2012, 01:51 AM Reply Like
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