I (like every other pundit) pumped out an analysis of Friday's BLS Jobs report - A Relatively Good BLS Jobs Situation in May 2013. The difference between me and other pundits is that I know analyzing garbage data produces garbage, and I try to present the data in a way where a wider perspective of the data will bring the jobs situation into perspective. Analyzing a single month of BLS Jobs data out of perspective makes you dumber.
Why is the data garbage? To produce the information in a timely matter the BLS is forced into extrapolating incomplete data. The data jumps around like grasshoppers. Even something simple like establishing the total private non-farm payroll level becomes garbage when analyzed monthly.
|original published private non-farm employment level||Current published private non-farm employment level||Original implied Jobs Growth MoM||Current jobs growth MoM|
The month-over-month growth is only accurate if you know the total employment for that month - and obviously this seems to be impossible for the BLS to establish in real time.
The Econintersect economic forecast for June 2012 again declined marginally, and remains under a zone which would indicate the economy is about to grow normally. The concern is that consumers are spending a historically high amount of their income.
The ECRI WLI growth index value has been weakly in positive territory for over four months - but in a noticeable improvement trend. The index is indicating the economy six month from today will be slightly better than it is today.Current ECRI WLI Growth Index
Initial unemployment claims declined from 354,000 (reported last week) to 346,000 this week. Historically, claims exceeding 400,000 per week usually occur when employment gains are less than the workforce growth, resulting in an increasing unemployment rate (background here and here).
The real gauge - the 4 week moving average - worsened from 347,250 (reported last week) to 352,500. Because of the noise (week-to-week movements from abnormal events AND the backward revisions to previous weeks releases), the 4-week average remains the reliable gauge.Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)
Bankruptcies this Week: Digerati Technologies, Triad Guaranty, Privately-held iGPS Company,
Data released this week which contained economically intuitive components (forward looking) were:
- Rail movements are beginning to show a modest growth trend.
All other data released this week either does not have enough historical correlation to the economy to be considered intuitive, or is simply a coincident indicator to the economy.Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:
- The Disastrous Launch of Windows 8
- Austerity Not Ended Yet
- Google: "What the --- ?"
- Look Ma! I Shrunk the Deficit!
- Investing.com Weekly Wrap-Up 07 June 2013
- This Year Solar Is Tops, Precious Metals the Dogs
- Markets Close Higher With Investors Scratching Heads
- What We Read Today 07 June 2013
- National Doughnut Day 2013
- Investing.com Technical Analysis 07 June 2013
- Markets Continue The Melt Up On Low Volume
- 31 May 2013: ECRI's WLI Growth Declines - But Still Predicting Economic Growth to Continue
- Dershowitz: Don't overreact to NSA acts
- Markets Gap Up For The Cash Crowd With Uninspiring Volume
- A Relatively Good BLS Jobs Situation in May 2013
- The Market Always Looks Best Just Before A Drop
- Raskin: Don't Saddle Small Banks with TBTF Costs
- Fed's Balance Sheet 05 June Up Slightly
- Infographic of the Day: Suicide Notes: Current Rates and Suicide Through the Ages
- Joe Sixpack's Situation: 1Q2013 View Continues to Improve
- Week Ending 01Jun 2013: Rail Traffic Continues Its Improving Trend
- The Economist: No US Housing Bubble
- Leverage versus Debt
- U.S. eBook Sales to Surpass Printed Book Sales in 2017
- Stock Market Investment Risk Holds at Historic High
- Markets Close Higher But Without Higher Volume
- What We Read Today 06 June 2013
- Reducing Financial Fragility by Ending Too Big to Fail
- Averages Mark Session With Sideways And Directionless
- Paris Jackson Reportedly Attempts Suicide
- Markets Open Up Fractionally, Remain Flat And Directionless
- Livingston Survey: Better 2013 Growth, Lower Inflation, Lower Unemployment
- 01 Jun 2013 Unemployment Claims 4 Week Average Again Worsens
- May 2013 Challenger Job Cuts Continue to Moderate, Down 11% Year to Date
- Infographic of the Day: Tornado Alley Map, Stats
- Is 80,000 Jobs Monthly The Minimum Employment Growth to Reduce Unemployment?
- Implications of Risks and Rewards in College Decisions
- The First Obama-Xi Summit: A Preview
- Roth IRAs and the New Tax Law
- The Economy: What'll It Be, Leeches or Vein Cutting?
- Bond Indicators: Is the Third Strike an Out?
- Terminal Velocity (10) - 'Getting Real Interesting'
- No Signs of a Newspaper Crisis in Asia and Latin America
- The United States and Syria: Some Wars are Better Left Untouched
- Health Insurance: Few Trust Brokers
- Spam and Gold as Inflation Hedges
- What We Read Today 05 June 2013
- June 2013 Beige Book: Economy May Be Expanding at a Less Good Rate
- Core Inflation: Goods versus Services
- NHS Cuts and Neglect Pose Risk for Patients in UK
- May 2013 ISM Services Index Improves
- April 2013 Manufacturing Is Better But Conflicts With Other Data
- Gary Is Out Of The Office Today
- Nonfinancial Leverage NFCI Deteriorating Trend Continues w/e 31 May 2013
- Productivity 1Q2013 (Final): Labor Cost Now Growing Faster Than Productivity
- May 2013 ADP Jobs 135,000, Another Weak Jobs Report
- Infographic of the Day: How Many People Have Died From Tornadoes?
- The Government Creates a New Criminal Class
- Samsung Scores Major Victory Over Apple
- Water Resources Dry Up, Opportunities Arise
- Blockupy Frankfurt - the end of the right to demonstrate?
- There's A Problem with the Transmission
- Japan: Abe Takes Income Arrow Out of the Quiver
- Big Trouble in Little FarmVille
- Investing.com Technical Analysis 04 June 2013
- Corporate Profits: An Elusive and Problematic Tax Base
- Session Ends In The Red On Moderate Volume
- What We Read Today 04 June 2013
- Session Stalls On Low Volume And Investor Indecision
- Bitcoin Crackdown? US laws choke digital cashflow anonymity
- Putin: Syria S-300 delivery on hold over balance-of-power concerns
- April 2013 CoreLogic Home Prices Now Up 12.1% Year-over-Year
- Markets Melt Up At Opening On Low Volume
- April 2013 Trade Data Finally Has Some Good News
- Week Ending 06 June 2013: 0.1 Cent Gasoline Price Rise
- Stratfor: Turkey's Violent Protests in Context
- Insider Trading 31 May 2013: Carnival Buying, Blackrock Selling
- New England Regularly Ranks Lowest in Recent College Graduate Retention
- Women Winning Social Media Battle of the Sexes
- Infographic of the Day: Why Fertilizer Is Dangerous
- Fiscal Headwinds: Increased Taxes Projected to Slow the Economy
- Prometheus: Warning Signs Suggest Cyclical Top Approaching
- Reserve Balance Misconceptions
- EURUSD Technical Analysis (June 3-7): Euro Dollar Weekly Update
- Global Manufacturing Stagnates
- The Great Debate: Helicopter Money As A Policy Option
- What Was Behind the Stock Market's Massive Breakout?
- China's Latest Manned Space Mission to Launch This Month
- May 2013 ISM Manufacturing Survey Slips Slightly Into Contraction
- Construction Growth Continues to be Soft in April 2013
- Joe Friday: "Junk Bonds Look Bearish and Could Break Support"
- Return of the Housing Bubble?
- The Brittle Bones of Ben Bernanke
- Gold Attempts to Form Intermediate-term Low
- Expect Further Downside In US Dollar
- The Four Big Risks Massive Money Has Brought to the U.S. Economy
- Week Ahead: Conflicting Data All Leads To May's Jobs Report
- What's Really Happening with China's Silver Demand?
- Carry Trade and Emerging Market Crises in the IS/MY Model
- How Dare DOJ Insult HSBC's Crooks as Less 'Professional' than Liberty Reserve's Crooks?
- Housing Smoke and Mirrors (8) - 'It Looks Ominous'
- Russians to Sell Fighter Jets to Syria's Assad
- All the Economy Needs Is More Jobs to Accelerate Growth
- What Can Bamboo Do About CO2?
- Hurricane Devastates Mexico Communities
- Final May 2013 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Remains Highest Since July 2007
- Weak Personal Consumption Expenditure Data In April 2013
- Systemic Crisis 2013: Record Stock Exchange Highs, Imminent Plunge into Recession
- Prometheus: Gold Attempts to Form Intermediate-term Low
- Hack-up Plan: US recruits cyber warriors as tension with China grows
- Ice Hockey: Get Rid of the Goalie!
- World's highest base-jump video: Russian daredevil breaks Everest record
- Why (The Fox) Bernanke Is A Genius
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.