Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Analyzing The Analysis Of The Jobs Report - Garbage In, Garbage Out

I (like every other pundit) pumped out an analysis of Friday's BLS Jobs report - A Relatively Good BLS Jobs Situation in May 2013. The difference between me and other pundits is that I know analyzing garbage data produces garbage, and I try to present the data in a way where a wider perspective of the data will bring the jobs situation into perspective. Analyzing a single month of BLS Jobs data out of perspective makes you dumber.

Why is the data garbage? To produce the information in a timely matter the BLS is forced into extrapolating incomplete data. The data jumps around like grasshoppers. Even something simple like establishing the total private non-farm payroll level becomes garbage when analyzed monthly.

  original published private non-farm employment level Current published private non-farm employment level Original implied Jobs Growth MoM Current jobs growth MoM
Feb 110711 111136 275 265
Mar 110824 111344 113 208
Apr 111020 111464 196 120
May 111040 111616 20 152
Jun 111145 111694 105 78
Jul 111317 111871 172 177
Aug 111400 112002 83 131
Sep 111499 112120 99 118
Oct 111744 112337 245 217
Nov 111890 112593 146 256
Dec 112096 112817 206 224
Jan 112961 112981 865 164
Feb 113203 113300 242 319
Mar 113330 113454 127 154
Apr 113630 113611 300 157
May 113789   159 178

The month-over-month growth is only accurate if you know the total employment for that month - and obviously this seems to be impossible for the BLS to establish in real time.

The Econintersect economic forecast for June 2012 again declined marginally, and remains under a zone which would indicate the economy is about to grow normally. The concern is that consumers are spending a historically high amount of their income.

The ECRI WLI growth index value has been weakly in positive territory for over four months - but in a noticeable improvement trend. The index is indicating the economy six month from today will be slightly better than it is today.

Current ECRI WLI Growth Index

Initial unemployment claims declined from 354,000 (reported last week) to 346,000 this week. Historically, claims exceeding 400,000 per week usually occur when employment gains are less than the workforce growth, resulting in an increasing unemployment rate (background here and here).

The real gauge - the 4 week moving average - worsened from 347,250 (reported last week) to 352,500. Because of the noise (week-to-week movements from abnormal events AND the backward revisions to previous weeks releases), the 4-week average remains the reliable gauge.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)

Bankruptcies this Week: Digerati Technologies, Triad Guaranty, Privately-held iGPS Company,

Data released this week which contained economically intuitive components (forward looking) were:

All other data released this week either does not have enough historical correlation to the economy to be considered intuitive, or is simply a coincident indicator to the economy.

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.