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Steven Hansen
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Steven Hansen is an international business and industrial consultant specializing in turning around troubled business units; consults to governments to optimize process flows; and provides economic indicator analysis based on unadjusted data and process limitations.
My company:
Econintersect LLC
My blog:
Global Economic Intersect
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  • like you said, an event looking for a reason. The question is do we move quickly down to 1400 or slowly zag down.
    22 Jun 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Although the US is due to a cyclical downturn this downturn seems to be a pullback from recent over exuberance. Look at the market, this only serves as retracement. You can worry about a crash when all this year's gains are gone and unemployment grows.

     

    I agree that cracks in the overpriced housing markets may be the harbinger of the downturn. After all, if QE and the Federal Reserve helping out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on top of the government paying for their short term losses can't continue to support real estate there really is not much hope for it. No one else in the world would or could support this still over-inflated market. The most recent attempt was liberalization of immigration to hope cheap skilled labor would add to the demand. LOL much of that money ends up going overseas and a lot of that labor simply displaces higher cost US employees who are still getting squeezed out of the market.

     

    In the end, US labor prices are set to either come down of the US dollar needs to be seriously depreciated to compete in the market. Even then, good luck competing with Indian software programmers, and Chinese manufacturing labor, and more efficient production management from Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.

     

    The US is king of defense because of our mass defense spending, pharmaceuticals and chemical processing because of oil processing and a bloated inefficient medical system, and the brand portion of the computer industry due to prestigious colleges that brain drain other countries, patent and Internet laws favorable to the US, and outsourcing to Asia. Even so, the US is starting to loose its grip here as well. US advancement is slowing in computing and advancing in Asia. Chemical processing is expanding closer to production in Asia. And Europe is shunning US defense sales in favor of their own. And India is overwhelming the software business. In the meantime, drop out rates in the US are increasing for males and a there is giant lack of engineering, medical, and science majors among US citizens who can't keep up with higher and higher educational demands to graduate from these fields.

     

    In the end, the only enduring advantage the US has still is creativity and a savvy for deep fundamental understanding over rote learning. But with a collapse of privacy and infringements on civil liberties, even this can go away to countries more permissive to freedom, creativity, and who is supportive of the right for individuals to be the odd man out.
    22 Jun 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
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