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Steven Hansen
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Steven Hansen is an international business and industrial consultant specializing in turning around troubled business units; consults to governments to optimize process flows; and provides economic indicator analysis based on unadjusted data and process limitations.
My company:
Econintersect LLC
My blog:
Global Economic Intersect
  • Obamacare - Now Turning Into A Slow Motion Train Wreck 2 comments
    Nov 1, 2013 5:04 PM

    I am not sure what everyone was thinking when the law was passed. Depending on your method of calculation - medical care costs are 12% to 18% of GDP. Consumers are currently spending $1.9 trillion on health care (source BEA PCE table 2.3.5) - which works out approximately $6,000 per person per year or $24,000 for a family of 4.

    This does not include what the government spends on health care via medicaid, medicare and DOD / veterans.

    It was never the plan for Obamacare to add more government money for the citizens - so after Obamacare goes active, the consumers still will be paying $1.9 trillion. It is interesting to look at this writeup on the California plans. A lot of people will be really unhappy with what happens not only to their medical coverage - but also their medical costs.

    I am not against socialized medicine - but it appears the lobbyists who really wrote Obamacare where setting things up to line their pockets.

    The Econintersect economic forecast for November 2013 again improved . There is no indication the cycle is particularly strong, as our concern remains that consumers are spending a historically high amount of their income, and the rate of gain on the economic elements we watch are not very strong.

    The ECRI WLI growth index value has been weakly in positive territory for over four months - but in a noticeable improvement trend. The index is indicating the economy six month from today will be slightly better than it is today.

    Current ECRI WLI Growth Index

    (click to enlarge)

    /images/z weekly_indexes.PNG

    Initial unemployment claims went from 350,000 (reported last week) to 340,000 this week. Historically, claims exceeding 400,000 per week usually occur when employment gains are less than the workforce growth, resulting in an increasing unemployment rate.

    The real gauge - the 4 week moving average - degraded from 348,250 (reported last week) to 356,250. Because of the noise (week-to-week movements from abnormal events AND the backward revisions to previous weeks releases), the 4-week average remains the reliable gauge.

    Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)

    (click to enlarge)

    /images/z unemployment.PNG

    Bankruptcies this Week: Green Field Energy Services, Allens

    Data released this week which contained economically intuitive components (forward looking) were:

    All other data released this week either does not have enough historical correlation to the economy to be considered intuitive, or is simply a coincident indicator to the economy.

    To see all the analysis from the economic releases this week click here.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Themes: economy, obamacare
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  • Donn Soderquist
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    Steven:
    Numbers for Obamacare in Kentucky came out this morning.
    No software problems because the Federal Government was
    not involved in its development. Working fine since October 1.
    32,485 Signed Up.
    27,854 (85.7%) Medicaid. (NOT IN OBAMA'S PLAN)
    4,531 (14.3%) Private Insurance (National Trend?)
    Donn in Kentucky
    2 Nov 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11158) | Send Message
     
    Obamacare has been a drag on the economy for quite a while since rather than a true nationalized health care it is essentially just a tax on businesses. It gets none of the cost savings of a truly nationalized plan and is now saddled with bureaucracy and will get bilked by favored healthcare companies and preferential treatment by government officials. A nationalized plan blows this system away in cost savings, benefits, and fairness. The US remains one of the most inefficient, over priced and poorly run health care systems out there.

     

    I am not endeared to nationalized health care. Without government support medicare prices wouldn't be so out of control in the first place, just like without government support of student loans tuition prices wouldn't be skyrocketing. simply put, without government support of astronomical health care costs few would be able to pay for the current prices, and despite what some would say, this would not lead to ending things like coronary surgery etc. but would simply mean prices would come down to what the market could bear. Our overpriced health care issues are self made ones.
    3 Nov 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
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