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Weekly Economic Analysis Summary For Week Ending 21April2012 2 comments
Other Economic News this Week:
The Econintersect economic forecast for April 2012 shows a less good growth. There has been a degradation in our government and finished goods pulse points.
ECRI has called a recession. Their data looks ahead at least 6 months and the bottom line for them is that a recession is a certainty. The size and depth is unknown but the recession start has been revised to hit around mid-year 2012.
This week ECRI's WLI index value declined marginally to 1.2. This ended twelve weeks of index improvement. This index continues to indicate the economy six months from today will be marginally better than today.
(click to enlarge)
Initial unemployment claims essentially increased from 380,000 (reported last week) to 386,000. Historically, claims exceeding 400,000 per week usually occur when employment gains are less than the workforce growth, resulting in an increasing unemployment rate (background here and here). The real gauge - the 4 week moving average - rose from 368,500 (reported last week) to 374,750. Because of the noise (week-to-week movements from abnormal events AND the backward revisions to previous weeks releases), the 4-week average remains the reliable gauge.
(click to enlarge)
Data released this week which contained economically intuitive components (forward looking) were rail movements and the manufacturing portion of Industrial Production . Rail movements are soft even without considering the overall contraction caused by coal, while IP manufacturing softened somewhat, but still remained clearly in expansion territory.
Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:Chairman Mao is Smiling …
April: It's Tough to Get Pumped, Unless the Fed Does It
Politics of the Economically Possible in China
April 2012 Philly Fed Survey Less Good
Leading Economic Indicator Improves in March 2012
Strange Existing Home Sales Data in March 2012
How the Vampire Squid Just Captured Europe
The Big Question: Has Austerity Gone Too Far?
March 2012 Sea Container Data Shows Economy Soft
Consumption and the U.S. Recovery
Romney's Lead Economist Backs Policies that will Create a New Crisis
Industrial Production OK but a Little Soft in March 2012
March 2012 Residential Permits & Completions Confirm Recovery Underway
Web of Lies, Fake Issues and Myths
Sell in May? Try April and Avoid the Rush
February 2012 Business Sales and Inventories Up
Advance Retail Sales Still Looks Good in March 2012
April 2012 Empire State Survey Declines But Still Indicates Growth
All You Need to Know About the U.S. Unemployment Problem
Gold Prices Should Thrive
There is No Saving in Daylight Saving Time
The Week Ahead: Q1 Earnings Disappointments?
U.K. Houses: 20% Too High?
Precious Metal Market Headwinds
Don't Get Faked Out by this Week's Unemployment Claims
Trefis: Week in Review 14 April 2012
Bankruptcies this Week: None
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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This post has 2 comments:
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It looks like thinking Europeans are trying to organize and fight this with letters and petitions to EU politicians. One can only hope that they are successful.
Thanks for linking Ellen's article. There are some reference links at the end of her article to work posted by a couple of excellent but obscure bloggers in Europe who have been working hard on researching the ESM problem and the obfuscation of the Goldman Sachs - Greek debt manipulation along with the ethics questions associated with Mario Draghi and the EU Parliament handling of his appointment review.
If you are distressed by the capture of government and society by financial interests in the U.S., multiply that by some factor larger than 1 (much larger?) to get the size of the problem in Europe.
PS: If you post your comment also on Steve's weekly article I'll copy mine over there as well.
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