Steven Hansen's  Instablog

The Econintersect economic forecast for May 2012 shows moderate growth. There was some improvement in the government pulse point, but degradation in some of our transport related pulse points. Overall, the pluses and minuses balanced out.

ECRI has called a recession. Their data looks ahead at least 6 months and the bottom line for them is that a recession is a certainty. The size and depth is unknown but the recession start has been revised to hit around mid-year 2012.

This week ECRI's WLI index value declined for the third week in a row to 0.6 - after the previous twelve weeks of index improvement. This index is now showing the economy six month from today will be as bad (or good) as it is today.

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Initial unemployment claims essentially decreased from 388,000 (reported last week) to 365,000 this week. Historically, claims exceeding 400,000 per week usually occur when employment gains are less than the workforce growth, resulting in an increasing unemployment rate (background here and here). The real gauge - the 4 week moving average - rose from 381,750 (reported last week) to 383,500. Because of the noise (week-to-week movements from abnormal events AND the backward revisions to previous weeks releases), the 4-week average remains the reliable gauge.

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Data released this week which contained economically intuitive components (forward looking) were rail movements and the transport portion of the Jobs report. Rail movements this week were good if one ignores coal.

April 2012 Jobs Report: Yah, Even Under My Low Expectations
Parenting in America: 25 Years Back and 25 Years Ahead
April 2012 ISM Services: Less Good but Still Indicating Growth
Productivity 1Q2012: Output up, Hours Worked Up More
The Rest of the Week Ahead: Looking for an Economic Turning Point
The Tale of the Zero Bound Limit and the Little Town that Could
Manufacturing Better Than Many Think in March 2012
April 2012 ADP Employment Report Shows Disappointing Growth
Summary for Week Ending 30 April 2012
The United States of Europe
ISM Manufacturing Shows Solid Growth In April 2012
Government Sector Dragging Down March 2012 Construction Spending
The Coming Depression in Spain: 22 Reasons Why
The Most Fundamental Econometric Relationship Ever
The Crippling Glut in Natural Gas
March 2012 Personal Consumption: Spending & Savings Improve
May 2012 Economic Forecast: Continued Expansion Predicted
Spain is the New Greece
Biotech Buyout Binge Continues
China: Slowing Down is Hard to Do
Safety With Gold and Silver Coins
European History a la Barroso
Trefis: Week in Review 27 April 2012
Preliminary April 2012 Michigan Consumer Confidence: Up Slightly
Misplaced Media Outrage over Argentina

Bankruptcies this Week: Evergreen Solar and Hawker Beechcraft

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.