Steven Hansen's  Instablog

The Econintersect economic forecast for May 2012 shows moderate growth. There was some improvement in the government pulse point, but degradation in some of our transport related pulse points. Overall, the pluses and minuses balanced out.

ECRI has called a recession. Their data looks ahead at least 6 months and the bottom line for them is that a recession is a certainty. The size and depth is unknown but the recession start has been revised to hit around mid-year 2012.

This week ECRI's WLI index value was unchanged at -0.1, after the previous twelve weeks of index improvement. This index is now showing the economy six month from today will be as bad as it is today.

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Please see Econintersect's post Achuthan Doubles Down on Recession to get a summary of the statements made this week reaffirming that a recession is coming.

Initial unemployment claims essentially decreased from 388,000 (reported last week) to 365,000 this week. Historically, claims exceeding 400,000 per week usually occur when employment gains are less than the workforce growth, resulting in an increasing unemployment rate (background here and here). The real gauge - the 4 week moving average - rose from 381,750 (reported last week) to 383,500. Because of the noise (week-to-week movements from abnormal events AND the backward revisions to previous weeks releases), the 4-week average remains the reliable gauge.

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Data released this week which contained economically intuitive components (forward looking) were rail movements and the import portion of the trade balance. Rail movements data this week is still indicating a moderate expansion if one ignores coal. Imports returned to the lower end of the growth range that imports have remained in since mid-2011.

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.