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Steven Hansen
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Steven Hansen is an international business and industrial consultant specializing in turning around troubled business units; consults to governments to optimize process flows; and provides economic indicator analysis based on unadjusted data and process limitations.
My company:
Econintersect LLC
My blog:
Global Economic Intersect
  • Prepare For a Simulus High In Home Sales in April 2010 1 comment
    May 4, 2010 7:17 PM

    Pending Home Sales have improved again in March 2010. Pending home sales are contracts for purchasing a home, and not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.

    According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) who issues this data:

    Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable affordability conditions have been working with the tax credit. “Clearly the home buyer tax credit has helped stabilize the market. In the months immediately following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect measurably lower sales,” he said. “Later in the second half of the year, and into 2011, home sales will likely become self-sustaining if the economy can add jobs at a respectable pace, and from a return of buyer demand as they see home values stabilizing.”

    I am not sure Lawrence Yun is on target with his remarks – but he is the cheerleader for the NAR. The home buyers tax credit is only changing
    WHEN somebody buys a home – it does not create new buyers as the rebate is chump change.

    Not to demean the NAR data which has been a fairly accurate tool in forecasting home sales. This data was derived by shifting pending home sales one month.

     

     

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  • Andrew Butter
    , contributor
    Comments (1654) | Send Message
     
    Hi Steve,

     

    Pity you didn't put a longer time series on those home sales.
    8 May 2010, 09:38 AM Reply Like
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