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Steven Hansen
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Steven Hansen is an international business and industrial consultant specializing in turning around troubled business units; consults to governments to optimize process flows; and provides economic indicator analysis based on unadjusted data and process limitations.
My company:
Econintersect LLC
My blog:
Global Economic Intersect
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  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9964) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that insiders sold 38x as much as insiders purchased last week of equities. Does that just show how much the markets have tilted over the years to most public companies being run for the benefit of executive compensation?
    11 Aug 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Steven Hansen
    , contributor
    Comments (2274) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » it is becoming more and more likely that insiders are paid a very high percentage of income with stock (this was less likely 50 years ago). most investment advisers say not to hold much investment in the company which pays your salary.

     

    i look at trend lines in this series - and my read is that trends are flat.
    12 Aug 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • CautiousInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (3075) | Send Message
     
    Nice article Steve.

     

    Second quarter GDP saw a drop in real growth from 2.0% to 1.5% largely because of a reduction in purchases of durables and a deceleration in residential investment. There were secondary influences as well.

     

    But with real final demand growing at a tepid 1.2% it would appear that we will struggle to grow at 2.0% with more downside risk than upside opportunity. Absent catalysts, we will be stuck in this mode amid slowing global growth heightening the odds of an external shock and growth well below 2.0%.

     

    Two growth catalysts are frequently mentioned by pundits and economists: auto sales and new home sales.

     

    Auto sales are starting to level out at somewhere around 14.1 million units after peaking in February. As noted by the BEA "motor vehicle output added 0.13 percentage point to the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.72 percentage point to the first-quarter change. I thought it might actually might be a drag.

     

    Residential investment added .4 points of growth in the first quarter while it added only .2 point of growth in the second quarter, underscoring the slowing growth and the challenges of growing bases bases when comparing consecutive quarterly changes.

     

    Further evidence of slowing residential investment is found in the report on June home sales which noted "sales of new single-family houses in June 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 350,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.4 percent (±12.4%)* below the revised May rate of 382,000, but is 15.1 percent (±16.7%)* above the June 2011 estimate of 304,000.

     

    So I guess we muddle through while exposed to risks of a slowing global economy while we wait to see if likely future actions by the Fed, the ECB and China change the real world economy.
    12 Aug 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Steven Hansen
    , contributor
    Comments (2274) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » yes, my take is the same as yours - we will muddle until a dynamic occurs which alters the equation ...
    13 Aug 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
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