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Axion Power's Share Count And Market Capitalization 31 comments
The following graph shows changes in Axion's market capitalization and share count since January 2009.
(click to enlarge)
The events that increased market capitalization during 2009 were:
Since the effective date of the resale registration statement for the shares sold in December 2009, the selling pressure has been heavy enough to completely eclipse all of these events:
While each of these events would have been big news in a typical micro-cap company, they didn't register on Axion's price chart because of the unusual market dynamics that prevailed when the announcements were made.
While Axion's stock has been "broken" for the last three years, I believe the market dynamic that caused the problem has been resolved and the only thing that's holding the stock at present levels is fear that higher prices will only give rise to another round of heavy selling. After three years of unrelenting selling pressure despite an increasing body of proof that the PbC is an extraordinary new battery technology, I understand the fear. I also know that Axion has arrived at a transition point and is poised to shed the R&D company market dynamic that prevailed for the last nine years as the PbC earns a place in several billion-dollar niche markets where competitive battery technologies simply can't do the work.
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.OB.
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This post has 31 comments:
The company has been clear that more shares will be issued around the end of Q1/13. Isn't that a factor to?
In the last conference call management spoke of several events that are likely to occur over the next couple months.
1. Axion has delivered 52 PbC batteries for an engine dominant hybrid series electric drivetrain for Class 8 tractors – e.g. long haul heavy trucks. Solid performance data is expected very soon. Since I referred the buyer to Axion I know a lot about the project – http://seekingalpha.co...
2. Axion is negotiating testing protocols for a demonstration that will use the PbC in auxiliary power units for long haul trucks. The application was described in a presentation to the SAE's commercial vehicle congress in October that specifically mentioned a system from Freightliner, a Daimler unit that's the biggest tractor manufacturer in the country. – http://bit.ly/TEWNPy
3. BMW sent its test results out for peer review before the August conference call and that process was expected to take six months. The next logical step will be a fleet test.
4. Before the August conference call a Top-5 global automaker from Asia decided to piggy-back the BMW test results, skip their normal preliminary work and go directly to advanced testing. While the timeline is a little less clear. The next logical step will be a fleet test.
5. We should hear something about the progress of the NS sale and expected follow-on order pretty soon.
Any of the first four projects could grab the markets attention and fire imaginations in ways that are hard to predict. Unless we have a news free quarter, I have to believe the price will be very different when it comes time to actually do the offering people fear.
I personally have already excepted the *possibility* of a capital raise at some horrible price point if necessary, but I am in for the long haul. There are other pressures on the market also in the form of the US budget and tax issues, the fiscal cliff, etc. It is also Christmas and year end so I can't see anything happening that good for a while.
Axion had three full quarters of working capital at September 30th and it's Form 10-Q specifically said "We believe that the currently available funds ... will provide sufficient financial resources ... through the first quarter of 2013.
The word they used was THROUGH, not until.
To listen to the fear talk that's been mounting since July you'd think Axion was going bust tomorrow. There is enough working capital to carry Axion through the first quarter. The financing is not an urgent issue and there several events that are certain or very likely before Axion needs to close a deal.
My bet is that those who thought they were being prudent by waiting will find themselves watching the train leaving the station.
Agreed.
In my head calculations looks like they might have a buck or to to begin July. (Baring seasonal variations I didn't look up.) The raise appears necessary about the end of June.
While any good news could trigger it.I am hopeful of at least three pieces of good news Q1.
eMobility Is the one that I am sure of, UL listing and rosewater sales I expect, and hopeful one of the biggies either NS or an auto co will get off the pot and get to work.
Perhaps all three before the raise period.
In December 2009 I owned a big block of preferred stock that was convertible at $1.25 and accruing in-kind dividends of 10%. To make the December 2009 private placement possible, I had to vote for the mandatory conversion of all preferred into common. I knew that the private placement was going to go off at a discount to my conversion price, but I held my nose and did the right thing for the company.
There were 10 stockholders who needed to consent if Axion wanted to avoid the complexity and delay of filing a proxy statement and holding a special stockholders meeting. If any of us had refused to take a bullet for the team, the company might have failed.
I can guarantee that the board and management team want something good to happen far more than the street does.
I agree a well managed company should be able to make money with such breakthrough technology but I don't like the fact that the chairman of the board is also the CEO. I need to satisfy myself the company is indeed well managed.
I spent some time yesterday reading 10-Q's and 10-K's. This morning I'm asking myself how to estimate NAV. Obviously I will have to make a lot of assumptions and, therefore, things are a bit foggy.
Axion Power is definitely on my radar and thanks for sharing your research which I find valuable.
Dec 30, 2009 Dec 30, 2010 Dec 30, 2011 Dec 30, 2012
$1,844,000 $2,148,000 $8,091,000 $6,016,000 + 4thQ
Now that seems like it would be a real post Chrstmas gift while also being somewhat of an early or right-on-time Valentine, not???
Given that you stated you like to invest directly with the company as opposed to in the open market, is there anyway for current share holders to partake in the next round? If so how much, or in my case how how little, would a person need?
Most public companies can't do private placements to individual investors who aren't "accredited investors;" guys who have a million dollar net worth excluding their residence or earn over $200,000 a year ($300,000 for a married couple). They usually have some pretty stout minimum investment requirements ($50 to $100 K). The bar is set at such high levels because of regulatory requirements.
How can AXPW have negotiating "muscle" for financing when it is clear from everyone that its cash will run dry by Q1 2013? What would prevent any battery company out there from instead waiting to pick up the jewels at the Bankruptcy court?
Can management guarantee that; if things become really dire, they can still turn to the Old guard for new money?Just a question I have always wanted to ask....
Bankruptcy only works for debt ridden companies. Companies like Axion that don't have debts pare expenses and muddle through. I can't imagine a situation where Axion would end up in Bankruptcy Court.
Axion is a survivor and it has always found the cash somewhere. It may not like the terms, but neither management nor the board will let the ship sink over a matter of pride.
Small companies are like babies in sub-Saharan Africa. They almost never die of starvation. The thing that kills them by the millions is dysentery. Axion has always thrown nickels around like manhole covers. It will not spend itself into oblivion.
While nobody can guarantee what the old guard will do with their money, a careful review of Axions financing history shows that the old guard was always there when they had to be.
According to RoseWater,it's underway,but results ,if good would be another positive news
http://bit.ly/ru1GhG
Do you know of eTruck that is developing similar hybrid diesel-electric technology as ePower? I understand they also wille using Axion PbC batteries. Is ePower and eTruck related?
http://bit.ly/U1Q32E
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