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Axion Power's Share Count And Market Capitalization

|Includes:Axion Power International, Inc. (AXPW)

The following graph shows changes in Axion's market capitalization and share count since January 2009.

(click to enlarge)Click to enlarge

The events that increased market capitalization during 2009 were:

  • The April 2009 announcement of a strategic alliance with Exide;
  • The August 2009 announcement of a DOE grant award to Exide with Axion Power; and
  • The December 2009 completion of a $26 million private placement.

Since the effective date of the resale registration statement for the shares sold in December 2009, the selling pressure has been heavy enough to completely eclipse all of these events:

  • The June 2010 disclosure of a development relationship with Norfolk Southern;
  • The September 2010 disclosure of a development relationship with BMW;
  • The March 2011 disclosure that a major US automaker had joined Axion as a subcontractor in a major DOE grant application;
  • The November 2011 commissioning of the PowerCube as the first behind the meter frequency regulation resource in the country;
  • The December 2011 discovery that the unnamed US automaker was General Motors;
  • The April 2012 announcement that Norfolk Southern had completed its laboratory testing and ordered batteries for the NS 999;
  • The August 2012 disclosure that BMW had completed its laboratory testing and commissioned an independent peer review;
  • The August 2012 disclosure that a Top-5 Asian automaker had decided to go directly to advanced testing on the strenght of the BMW test results;
  • The November 2012 disclosure that a testing program for the use of the PbC in auxiliary power units for Class 8 trucks was expected by year-end;
  • The November 2012 disclosure that the PbC had been selected as a replacement for the AGM batteries used in a new series hybrid electric retrofit for Class 8 tractors;
  • The tacit admission by Exide that its best enhanced and AGM batteries won't stand up to the demand of micro-hybrids in November 2012; and
  • The frank admission by JCI that its best enhanced and AGM batteries won't stand up to the demand of micro-hybrids in December 2012.

While each of these events would have been big news in a typical micro-cap company, they didn't register on Axion's price chart because of the unusual market dynamics that prevailed when the announcements were made.

While Axion's stock has been "broken" for the last three years, I believe the market dynamic that caused the problem has been resolved and the only thing that's holding the stock at present levels is fear that higher prices will only give rise to another round of heavy selling. After three years of unrelenting selling pressure despite an increasing body of proof that the PbC is an extraordinary new battery technology, I understand the fear. I also know that Axion has arrived at a transition point and is poised to shed the R&D company market dynamic that prevailed for the last nine years as the PbC earns a place in several billion-dollar niche markets where competitive battery technologies simply can't do the work.

Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

Stocks: AXPW