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John Petersen
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John Petersen is executive vice president and chief financial officer of ePower Engine Systems, Inc., a company that has developed, built and demonstrated an engine-dominant diesel-electric hybrid drivetrain for long-haul heavy trucks that promises fuel savings of 25 to 35 percent depending on... More
My company:
Fefer petersen & co.
My blog:
ipo-law.com
  • Updating My Axion Price and Volume Charts 16 comments
    Nov 7, 2011 4:23 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    The following graph is an update of my price and volume tracking data for Axion Power International (NASDAQ:AXPW). After a month of very low trading volumes as shown in the beige 10-day moving average volume line there was a sharp upturn late last week that seems likely to continue. With the 10-, 20- and 50-day averge prices clustered in the $.50 range I think a move to the upside is more likely at this point than a move to the downside.


    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (16)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure how relevant the 200 MDA is when compared to the 10, 20 and 50 day MDA.

     

    I look at the recent past and see the 10, 20 and 50 day bottoming at the same share price like they did just before the share price launched in October of 2010 (~$0.50).

     

    With the continued sellers still selling I believe only a news driven event will repeat what we saw beginning January of this year.

     

    If TG holds true to what I learned from him at the Investors' Conference, then we may see the stock launch again. Unfortunately, I also believe that Special Sitz will up their rate of selling, tampering any substantial gain in share pricing. I should state that "substantial" means over a quick 50% pop.

     

    Which still wouldn't get to my average share price.

     

    Great chart, and I'm glad you keep updating it.
    7 Nov 2011, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The 200-day volume is a pretty good proxy for "normal" volume at any point in time and gives you a pretty good idea of what volume "should" be. The 10-day volume line recently fell to a level that's way below the bottom of its channel, indicating a tightening of supply, a softening of demand or both. If it continues its move back toward the top end of the channel, the price should firm (I think). The situation should be much clearer later this week when Special Sits files it 13F-HR for the end of September.
    8 Nov 2011, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • greengirl64
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    What is Special Sits? Are you referring to the Gelbaum family? The thin trading makes me nervous ahead of next week's quarterly report.
    8 Nov 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Special Situations is a family of funds that bought 8.7 million shares in the 2009 private placement and has been a heavy seller since last March. Collectively the Quercus Trust, which is Mr. Gelbaum's family trust, and Special Situations, sold 2.4 million shares in Q1 (13.3% of total volume); 4.4 million shares in Q2 (22.6% of total volume); and 662,000 in July (16.6% of total volume). Sometime this week Special Sits should file a quarterly report that will let me know what their total sales were in Q3.

     

    The relatively low volume this month is attributable to a reduction in the number of shares Quercus was eligible to resell under the law. My sense is that Special Sits may be running out of stock, but I'll know better when its holdings report is filed.

     

    The thin trading doesn't make me nervous, but it's pretty clear if you read the Axion concentrators that a lot of people are wanting to hear something more than generalities in the CC.
    8 Nov 2011, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • greengirl64
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, John, for the thorough response. It really helps, though I, too, will be all ears on the conference call. It seems they don't have a whole lot of runway before they run out of $$$. Is that a fair assumption?
    9 Nov 2011, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They've said additional finance will be needed by June 30th of next year, but I don't see it as a critical issue today.
    9 Nov 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • greengirl64
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. I thought the deadline was Dec. 31.
    10 Nov 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    So, the folks who bought millions of shares of stock are selling ... that is either a sign that they made some money and just want to move on, or that they have lost money and gotten tired of waiting for the "good news". Generally, I am willing to admit that people who can buy millions of shares are probably smarter than I am ... thus I'm nervous if the latter case is indeed, the case!
    11 Nov 2011, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I've spent thirty some years learning that there are thousands of reasons to sell a stock ranging from company specific events like earnings disappointments to macro-economic events like problems in the Mediterranean, but there's only one reason to buy a stock.

     

    In this case there are two sellers. The Quercus Trust has already explained that their portfolio of VC type investments was crushed in 2008 and they're selling whatever they can to raise cash. Special Situations has been quiet but it's reduced the total value of its holdings from $835 million on December 31st to $649 million on September 30th.

     

    If you can divine an intent from those limited facts you're a far smarter man than me.
    12 Nov 2011, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • axionlundy
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    On Nov. 7 you say "I think a move to the upside is more likely at this point than a move to the downside." Obviously, the opposite has happened. May I get your thoughts on why? And what is next?

     

    Michael London
    15 Nov 2011, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • axionlundy
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    What's up with Axion? Last blog talks about more chance of movement to upside (from .50). Now at .36, almost 30% down as I figure it.
    15 Nov 2011, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There have been a lot of big blocks changing hands today so I think that one of the big sellers who's been moving out of the stock for the last several months has accelerated their selling. I'm sure some people were rattled by the addition of "going concern" language to the quarterly statements for the first time in a couple years, but that's required whenever the working capital runway is shorter than a year. Axion figures it can make it through Q2 of next year with available resources, but not beyond. They made that fact very clear in today's call and the reminder may have also spooked some holders.
    15 Nov 2011, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Price volatility in sub-$1 stocks almost always involves significant percentages because the divisor is such a small number. Ultimately that's just part of the game.
    15 Nov 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • greengirl64
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Is it time to buy a little? Conference call seemed to hint at news to come from Norfolk Southern. It is a little spooky when they open the call confirming the company's possible demise.
    16 Nov 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Sorry for stepping in here John.

     

    >Greengirl64 News will be coming from NS but the other pretty big news is that a large utility company, PJM, that operates utilities across several states will be doing a press release next week or so regarding using/testing Axion's PowerCubes.

     

    Some people are discussing it here http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Looking through those concentrators should be informative for you if you are planning on initiating a position in the company.
    16 Nov 2011, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • greengirl64
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Tx for the heds up; I'll check it out!
    17 Nov 2011, 08:32 AM Reply Like
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