John Petersen's  Instablog

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bazooooka Comments (1139)
 
John, do you think the trend can hold and we will do near 200M shares this year? That'd be indeed quite liquid and require some float turn and I suspect a a large gain in price to loosen up the shares. Heck I'd even settle for 150M shares traded (75M in new buys).
3 Jan 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like

John Petersen Comments (22399)
 
Right now Axion's float turns over every 274 days. Ideally that number should be in the 90 to 120 day range, which would take two or three times the current volume.

Since I believe the Axionista bottom feeders have picked up a huge percentage of the float, I wouldn't be surprised to see volume taper off until the market price reaches a level that will make the elephant hunters happy.
3 Jan 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like

wtblanchard Comments (1908)
 
We will hopefully need a significant gain in share price before new stock would be issued to increase the float. The timing during the year of that would have a big effect on the year's volume. What kind of hands the offering gets sold to would also have a big effect.

The Axionistas like to think we're very strong hands, and if Special Situations really is done, I would expect volume to drop significantly compared to say December. We'll see how much people (and lurkers) have as core and as trading positions. I really hoping December was a once in a lifetime opportunity, and selling some stuff I "merely liked" to take advantage of it was the right move. Time will tell.

Also, as price goes up, the small investor might still be buying, but not nearly as many shares.
3 Jan 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like

John Petersen Comments (22399)
 
The question in my mind is whether the rules I learned with smaller deals and smaller floats apply with equal force to floats the size of Axion's. There's no reason that a bigger market should behave differently, although I would expect it to behave more smoothly because of a substantially larger number of decision makers. So far I'd say we're off to a good start.
3 Jan 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like

Mayascribe Comments (8252)
 
Great chart!

I agree, in that I expect volume to taper somewhat, until we enter into a new, news cycle.

I agree part two, in that we are off to a particularly nice start in 2012. As I wrote in the AC, my thinking is that it will be nibblers that will push the stock higher in the near future, as we drift up from the ditributive bottom we've seen over the past month or so.

Already wishing that I had picked up the full 40,000 shares, rather than just 25,000 shares at 3:54 PM during the last trading session of last year.
3 Jan 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like

John Petersen Comments (22399)
 
I like the start.
3 Jan 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like

saywhat1015 Comments (131)
 
Is that one major share owner of AXPW, who was forced to liquidate, still liquidating large amounts of shares? Do you expect him / his fund to keep selling as rapidly this year?
4 Jan 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like

John Petersen Comments (22399)
 
There were two big shareholders who were selling their positions in 2011. It looks like the Special Situations Funds have sold their entire position (I hope). The other major seller, the Quercus Trust, has been careful to limit their sales to 10% of reported daily volume and I do expect them to sell out the balance of their position this year. The market dynamic should be very different if we don't have big major sellers competing with each other to be first at the pay window.
4 Jan 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like

ARGE Comments (426)
 
"the Special Situations Funds have sold their entire position."
Does that mean out of shares entirely or out of what they reported they were going to sell?
I was thinking that they were selling to get to the "house money" level trading, for some reason.
4 Jan 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like

John Petersen Comments (22399)
 
Special Situations sold 1.3 million shares in Q-1, 3 million shares in Q-2 and 1.35 million shares in Q-3. They only had 3.15 million shares left at the beginning of Q-4. Given the volume we saw in Q-4, I have to believe that Special Sits accounted for a sizable chunk of the 18.1 million shares that traded. We won't know for sure till their holdings report is filed in mid-February, but for now anyway my theory is they're gone completely.
4 Jan 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like

ARGE Comments (426)
 
Thank you for the quick reply.
4 Jan 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like

bazooooka Comments (1139)
 
I think your theory will be tested today if we can get near 800k+ in volume. I don't think that kind of volume can pass through without a move into .35 territory which presumably would loosen up some recent hands who bought closer to .25. However if we flatten back out at .30 it's likely that a fund if still selling a large block into this news rleated strength. IMO =)
4 Jan 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like

John Petersen Comments (22399)
 
While I like to think I have a pretty good handle on how the stock is held and the investment goals of most holders, this will definitely be a learning experience for me. I've been through the drill with floats in the couple million share range, but this is the first time I've ever seen it happen with a forty million share float.
4 Jan 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like

H. T. Love Comments (13190)
 
It doesn't look like 800K today as volume normally tails off late in the morning. It has done so this A.M. as well.

I'm thinking Quercus (and whoever else is primed to sell) does their bit in the A.M.

As of 09:45, buy, sell and unknown were 74,300, 78,200 and 70,600 respectively. Buy:sell was fairly well balanced at 1:1.05 and buy:(sell+unknown) was 1:2.00.

At 12:27 buy, sell, unknown were 314,926 180,524 and 77,600 respectively, totaling 573,050 shares so far. Buy:sell had moved to 1.745:1 and buy:(sell+unknown) to 1.22:1.

This tells me that folks that bought low (~$0.2x range) are taking profits along with the Quercus types (who likely sold mostly in the A.M.?).

This is suggested by lack of downward pressure seen in the past where we observed a large amount of hitting the bid regardless of how low the price was. What we observe now is much more hitting the ask with fewer mid-point trades too.

All this confirms, to me, that the really heavy sellers (Special Situations?) are done ATM.

I expect total volume to end near ~600K or so.

I also expect the ~$0.35 range should bring out a large numbr of profit-takers *unless* another PR materializes.

HardToLove
4 Jan 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like

John Petersen Comments (22399)
 
I'd look for something closer to 800k - 900k, but there's just no way to predict these things.
4 Jan 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like

H. T. Love Comments (13190)
 
It's looking like you'll be closer than I will. It bumped another ~80K already, now at 652K.

HardToLove
4 Jan 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like

bazooooka Comments (1139)
 
Looks like we might have some buyers again today. If we can move through .35 that bodes well for the idea that SS is on the sidelines. Hopefully the run up to .35 wasn't just an errant market order which will quickly rectify back toward .30.
5 Jan 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like