John Petersen is a partner in the law firm of Fefer Petersen & Co. and focuses on corporate finance, due diligence, M&A advisory and related consulting services for manufacturers, innovators and investors in the energy storage and renewable energy sectors. From 2003 to 2007 John served... More
Using Trading Volume To Estimate Liquidity 61 comments
Apr 28, 2012 12:43 PM
One of the more important measures investors consider when analyzing a stock is it's relative liquidity. Sometimes it's obvious and sometimes you need to dig a little deeper. The following table identifies the 16 companies in my current tracking list and ranks them in order of declining liquidity as measured by the number of times per year their issued and outstanding stock turns over in the open market.
As a general rule, companies toward the top of the list have a lot of interest from hot money and companies toward the bottom have little or no interest from hot money.
Trading
Outstanding
Annual
Turnover
Symbol
Shares
Volume
Frequency
A123 Systems
AONE
146,862,868
719,888,700
4.90
Exide Technologies
XIDE
78,283,690
248,781,500
3.18
Enersys
ENS
47,742,565
138,563,100
2.90
Tesla Motors
TSLA
104,604,044
299,374,900
2.86
Johnson Controls
JCI
680,455,203
1,441,801,800
2.12
Maxwell Technologies
MXWL
28,212,494
59,471,900
2.11
Active Power
ACPW
95,427,235
167,400,100
1.75
Kandi Technologies
KNDI
27,447,593
29,572,000
1.08
UQM Technologies
UQM
36,531,530
36,241,900
0.99
China BAK Battery
CBAK
63,816,276
54,441,200
0.85
Valence Technology
VLNC
169,976,618
144,226,400
0.85
Altair Nanotechnologies
ALTI
69,452,487
50,895,900
0.73
Axion Power
AXPW.OB
113,211,091
78,538,200
0.69
ZBB Energy
ZBB
41,055,079
28,436,600
0.69
Ultralife Corporation
ULBI
17,360,435
11,280,600
0.65
Highpower International
HPJ
13,582,106
6,188,700
0.46
While Turnover Frequency is not an obvious metric for retail investors, it is a critical pricing consideration when a company is negotiating deal terms for a new offering and the general rule is the lower the Turnover Frequency, the higher the discount.
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There are lots of unknowns. But, in the evolving case study of Axion Power and Axionistas, it seems that the Axionistas have created a quasi-lock up box all their own.
The uniqueness of the Axionistas "should" skew turnover frequency to some unknown degree.
When I get my own, personal blog started I plan on talking about Axion pretty extensively. Being in SEO (in it's infancy) and online marketing for 10+ years, I'd like to think I could bring some added exposure. However, my time and brain power is limited and divided and I don't feel I could do it justice. I'll likely be referencing and linking to JP and likewise resources.
In the worst case, I am hoping to gather a few more Axionistas to the cause.
It's going to be a fascinating learning experience for me. I've been here before with much smaller capital structures and stockholder bases, but this is far bigger than anything I've seen before.
Dastar, Let us know when you get it rolling. It will be fun to check out.
JP, thanks for this insta. I think this is just another illustration of one of the many easily overlooked dynamics when evaluating the stock and its performance.
Again I still can't help thinking how several years from now Axion will be the subject of some TV special or business case study... the twists of fate, the lucky breaks, the heroic principals, all dogged determination, steely-spined characters, the awesome focus, and dodging of bullets, several landmines avoided, the outwitting of predators, the endlessly sticked-to knitting, the financings in the nick of time, the many years in the wilderness, and the faith, the cadre, the believers endless rowing in the galleys...the parching thirst, the storms endured... and then, and then.... finally!..Noah's dove, a thin shaft of sunlight zorching down.. soon enough breaking into brilliant day... the hearty voyagers, as well as weary passengers, at last reaching the long told green shores.. And the title? "Doing it Right. The Axion story." And featuring an enigmatic narrator, this dude, a distinctly refined, yet weathered and grizzled tough old cat, known only by the handle "Columbus Moses", who somehow knows the whole tale, every attachment and footnote, telling it all with professional precision...
I think it would be exaggerating to call invertebrates "steely-spined", but the rest seems right on track.
## I would be curious to know where Axionistas fall on the Myers-Briggs, and if there would be any one time more representative than in the general population. I'm ISTP, and being a risk taker is part of the profile.
I think that test is pretty indicative even though brief (I did it once before), as I came out the same type as I did on the whole battery of tests. thanks for doing that.
Thanks Mercy and HTL, I began making a spreadsheet. My guess is that I and T would be very dominant traits. At some point will try to get most Axionistas.
Is this you Mercy? ENTJs focus on the most efficient and organized means of performing a task. This quality, along with their goal orientation, often makes ENTJs superior leaders, both realistic and visionary in implementing a long-term plan.
Well I'd like to think that describes me to a tee Metro. LOL But, just remember -- each of our strengths also bring out our greatest weaknesses. Did I hear anyone say "patience -- Mercy -- patience!" But I am definitely more friendly than introverted HTL :-))
. Personal relationships, particularly romantic ones, can be the INTJ's Achilles heel ... This happens in part because many INTJs do not readily grasp the social rituals ... Perhaps the most fundamental problem, however, is that INTJs really want people to make sense.lol.
Jon, INTPs are quiet, thoughtful, analytical individuals who tend to spend long periods of time on their own, working through problems and forming solutions.
and .....INTPs are driven to fully understand a discussion from all relevant angles. Isn't it interesting you posted this yesterday. "It is comments like these that make me wish Seeking Alpha had a way to have two-authored articles... which would allow for there to even be a pro-con exchange on companies"
Mercy, None of the four letters represent strengths or weaknesses, just different. Too much of one would not be desirable, i,e, introverted to the point of staring at your shoes. But would have large impact on how you are in the workplace, at what job you would be happy working, and if you would be successful in that job. I have a writer friend, and is excellent at it, but is extremely extroverted and so is miserable working at home. Extroversion can be a great attribute at other jobs. I'm not an expert at this, but it has helped me to better understand people and what motivates them. Like I would bet your desk is rigorously neat and organized without even knowing or having seen you. Anyway, I know this has gotten way OT.
Metro, definitely OT, but let me add maybe your extroverted friend should try full time trading and investing (with postings on SA) -- LOL. As extroverted as I am I currently have the greatest job satisfaction of all time -- more than when I was conducting business on all continents and managing a national staff of hundreds across multiple offices. I guess its because I am very achievement oriented and now I get immediate daily feedback -- win or lose its my own personal doing -- while acknowledging a lot of insight from fellow traders and investors! MJ
P.S. BTW my desk is a mess right now -- so maybe my personality is as mixed up as Jon S. :-))
Yes. My wife would say I fit it to a "T". I tend to have scorned my artistic side and have envied the scientist's, which my wife is one and my oldest daughter is showing significant signs of that as well, which I am thankful for, because I think art is easy and can come naturally but that is another off-shoot of ISFP -- "...is likely to not give themself enough credit for the things which they do extremely well"
I do pride myself on this though..."ISFPs are extremely perceptive and aware of others. They constantly gather specific information about people, and seek to discover what it means. They are usually penetratingly accurate in their perceptions of others. "
Apparently we also do not care for conventional ways of learning...which is pretty accurate for me. And these lines..."pursuing their goals in their own, unique way. People who don't know them well may see their unique way of life as a sign of carefree light-heartedness, but the ISFP actually takes life very seriously, constantly gathering specific information and shifting it through their value systems, in search for clarification and underlying meaning. "
This was fun but JP will have to change his blog title to "The Axionista's Carl Jung Personality Test blog"
Ditto, if there were a bunch of Me's on here I would be running for the hills. I have this hunch that a lot of our trolls come from my "lineage." They just don't have that one extra neuron to make the leap to the rational-logical conclusion of a scientist and instead dwell on the emotional side of things believing that is their "penetrating insight to the *truth*"
Springer referred to it the other day when he said something to the effect of..."he can recognize them but no one can help them cross that bridge of logic." - paraphrased but still in quotes.
As we age, perhaps we become more judgmental. I still think I lean more to the "perceiving" side than "judging," but I scored just over the edge this time.
I should take the Jung test using various personalities from my book ;-)
####
My Next Life -- by Woody Allen
In my next life I want to live backwards. You start out dead and get that out of the way.
Then you wake up in an old person's home, feeling better every day. You get kicked out for being too healthy, go and collect your pension, and then when you start to work, you get a gold watch and a party on your first day.
You work 40 years until you're young enough to enjoy your retirement. You party, drink alcohol, and are generally promiscuous, and then you are ready for high school.
Then you go to primary school, you become a kid, and play. You have no responsibilities, you become a baby until you are born. And then you spend the last nine months floating in luxurious spa like conditions with central heating and room service on tap, with larger quarters everyday.
The idea for benjamin button actually came from an american short story of the same name, written by F. Scott Fitzgerald in 1922... and there were other real gems from back then too... I even hear tell that there was one like a diamond as big as the ritz... ;)
I should have been a bit more gracious in my post Jon, and apologies... it was a fairly obscure story after all.... But one thing that's becoming all too common these days is a failure by the young and hip, not that you're in that category ;) to properly and fairly credit the past... But, kids these days, they all seem to think that because folks didn't have the internet or iphones ( or "modern social enlightenment") a century or two ago that everyone back then was an idiot...
My daughter (now over 21 and seemingly immune to my more devious parenting attempts) became very hesitant during the middle teen years to expose her friends to her father...
I tended to alter their world view with my failure to fit what they considered to be the father unit's proper pigeon hole.
That's the point, I refused to either define it or inhabit it.
My experience at that point (which coincided with mid-teens lacking cars but craving constant limousine service) was that they wished to be able to communicate by talking cryptically over the head of the chauffeur...
Breaking the code was a clear violation of their wish for the parent to remain clueless.
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Using Trading Volume To Estimate Liquidity 61 comments
One of the more important measures investors consider when analyzing a stock is it's relative liquidity. Sometimes it's obvious and sometimes you need to dig a little deeper. The following table identifies the 16 companies in my current tracking list and ranks them in order of declining liquidity as measured by the number of times per year their issued and outstanding stock turns over in the open market.
As a general rule, companies toward the top of the list have a lot of interest from hot money and companies toward the bottom have little or no interest from hot money.
While Turnover Frequency is not an obvious metric for retail investors, it is a critical pricing consideration when a company is negotiating deal terms for a new offering and the general rule is the lower the Turnover Frequency, the higher the discount.
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.OB.
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This post has 61 comments:
Just for clarification purposes, is this "annualized" chart based on the calendar year, or is it March 2011-2012?
There are lots of unknowns. But, in the evolving case study of Axion Power and Axionistas, it seems that the Axionistas have created a quasi-lock up box all their own.
The uniqueness of the Axionistas "should" skew turnover frequency to some unknown degree.
In the worst case, I am hoping to gather a few more Axionistas to the cause.
JP, thanks for this insta. I think this is just another illustration of one of the many easily overlooked dynamics when evaluating the stock and its performance.
Maybe you and Maya can collaborate and write the story.
##
I would be curious to know where Axionistas fall on the Myers-Briggs, and if there would be any one time more representative than in the general population. I'm ISTP, and being a risk taker is part of the profile.
My score: INTP, heavy on the intuitive part of the score... whatever.
#thingsyoudo
afterspilling
wateronyour
primarycomputer
whileyouwait
andhope
thatitdries
Introverted 33
Intuitive 50
Thinking 50
Judging 44
HardToLove
I know when I was younger, I was far from that.
Probably a common affliction of youth.
Ergo, you are still very young ... LoL! Or a slow learner! ;-))
HardToLove
I began making a spreadsheet. My guess is that I and T would be very dominant traits. At some point will try to get most Axionistas.
Is this you Mercy?
ENTJs focus on the most efficient and organized means of performing a task. This quality, along with their goal orientation, often makes ENTJs superior leaders, both realistic and visionary in implementing a long-term plan.
Now we know why your wife says you are HTL,
. Personal relationships, particularly romantic ones, can be the INTJ's Achilles heel ... This happens in part because many INTJs do not readily grasp the social rituals ... Perhaps the most fundamental problem, however, is that INTJs really want people to make sense.lol.
My iNtuitive was a 38.
My next highest number was 11, and then I think it was an 8 and a 1 (I know I had a 1, not sure about the 8).
Other than the iNtuitive part, I think my other scores were nominal... perhaps I have no personality at all :-)
INTPs are quiet, thoughtful, analytical individuals who tend to spend long periods of time on their own, working through problems and forming solutions.
and .....INTPs are driven to fully understand a discussion from all relevant angles. Isn't it interesting you posted this yesterday. "It is comments like these that make me wish Seeking Alpha had a way to have two-authored articles... which would allow for there to even be a pro-con exchange on companies"
http://bit.ly/IEsVDk
http://bit.ly/IjWuFr
None of the four letters represent strengths or weaknesses, just different. Too much of one would not be desirable, i,e, introverted to the point of staring at your shoes. But would have large impact on how you are in the workplace, at what job you would be happy working, and if you would be successful in that job. I have a writer friend, and is excellent at it, but is extremely extroverted and so is miserable working at home. Extroversion can be a great attribute at other jobs. I'm not an expert at this, but it has helped me to better understand people and what motivates them. Like I would bet your desk is rigorously neat and organized without even knowing or having seen you. Anyway, I know this has gotten way OT.
Not only do I not "grasp" them, my personality emphasizes *resisting* many of them.
Yes, I want folks to make sense, but I gave up on ever seeing that a long time ago.
Now I just accept and take in stride.
It does make life a lot easier.
HardToLove
MJ
P.S. BTW my desk is a mess right now -- so maybe my personality is as mixed up as Jon S. :-))
sorry have gotten so far off topic.
Introverted 89
Intuitive 75
Thinking 25
Perceiving 11
Can't say it got me wrong, but what does it mean. More introspection may need to be applied.
Introverted = 88
Sensing = 1
Feeling = 12
Perceiving = 33
Here are you INTJ's aka "The Scientist" (a good-bit boring bunch you all are)
http://bit.ly/IFXWqo
INTP's aka "The Thinker"
http://bit.ly/KuynVa
Most of you seem to have this thing with logic -- I just don't get it.
I do pride myself on this though..."ISFPs are extremely perceptive and aware of others. They constantly gather specific information about people, and seek to discover what it means. They are usually penetratingly accurate in their perceptions of others. "
Apparently we also do not care for conventional ways of learning...which is pretty accurate for me. And these lines..."pursuing their goals in their own, unique way. People who don't know them well may see their unique way of life as a sign of carefree light-heartedness, but the ISFP actually takes life very seriously, constantly gathering specific information and shifting it through their value systems, in search for clarification and underlying meaning. "
This was fun but JP will have to change his blog title to "The Axionista's Carl Jung Personality Test blog"
Springer referred to it the other day when he said something to the effect of..."he can recognize them but no one can help them cross that bridge of logic." - paraphrased but still in quotes.
I couldn't stand it.
I guess I just exhibited my lack of social conventions! :-(
HardToLove
I last took the Myers Briggs nearly three decades ago, and remember that I scored as INTP then, but rather near to center on several of the axes.
Now:
INTJ
Introverted 89
Intuitive 62
Thinking 38
Judging 1
As we age, perhaps we become more judgmental. I still think I lean more to the "perceiving" side than "judging," but I scored just over the edge this time.
I knew I had something in common here ....
INTJ
44, 25, 38, 11
I wonder what the tin-hat crowd scores
(HTL excluded, no offense intended)
HardToLove
####
My Next Life -- by Woody Allen
In my next life I want to live backwards. You start out dead and get that out of the way.
Then you wake up in an old person's home, feeling better every day. You get kicked out for being too healthy, go and collect your pension, and then when you start to work, you get a gold watch and a party on your first day.
You work 40 years until you're young enough to enjoy your retirement. You party, drink alcohol, and are generally promiscuous, and then you are ready for high school.
Then you go to primary school, you become a kid, and play. You have no responsibilities, you become a baby until you are born. And then you spend the last nine months floating in luxurious spa like conditions with central heating and room service on tap, with larger quarters everyday.
And then VIOLA! You go out as an orgasm.
(I was saving my 1001st post for something really good and that takes the cake)
Of course, they left out the final and important scenes
F. Scott Fitzgerald is widely counted as one of the first serious science fictions authors.
At first they fear we are dead because we may not stir for ... oh 2 or 3 whole minutes.
They also note our under-developed thumbs, as if we'd never ever "texted".
HardToLove
My daughter (now over 21 and seemingly immune to my more devious parenting attempts) became very hesitant during the middle teen years to expose her friends to her father...
I tended to alter their world view with my failure to fit what they considered to be the father unit's proper pigeon hole.
My experience at that point (which coincided with mid-teens lacking cars but craving constant limousine service) was that they wished to be able to communicate by talking cryptically over the head of the chauffeur...
Breaking the code was a clear violation of their wish for the parent to remain clueless.
--exactly what, back in the dark ages, God created bicycles for. ;)
Bicycles cost money.
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