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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 4 RE: 2011 Second Quarter Conference Call 178 comments
    Aug 13, 2011 6:26 PM | about stocks: AXPW
    It has been illuminating to read all the keen insights and comments made in the past Axion Concentrator(s). With the forthcoming August 16 quarterly conference call, many intriguing questions have been posed, answers to which we can only ruminate and speculate.  

    With this in mind, it appears pertinent to identify those questions raised such that participants in this forum can ask Axion leadership when the Q&A segment of the conference call commences.


    During my visit to the Investors' Conference, I found all Axion leadership to be approachable and thorough with their answers.  

    I am in the middle of moving (back in the Pittsburgh area again). If my schedule permits, I intend to listen in and actively participate during the conference call. It all depends on availabilty of time and resources. 


    1) Subject--HT30 Battery:

    a) How long has the HT30 Battery been in development?
    b) How many "light cycle" chargings have been measured so far?
    c) With HT30's higher density, is it expected that the HT30 battery will achieve in excess of 100,000 light cycle re-chargings as has the PbC?
    d) Is it expected that Norfolk Southern will test the HT30 battery as they are testing the PbC, with both a yard switcher and an over the road locomotive?  
    e) Is the HT30 battery "targeted" toward different (or overlapping) industries than the PbC, such as utilities, buses, marine, solar and wind applications? 

    2) Subject--PbC Battery:

    a) When is it expected that Norfolk Southern will complete testing on the PbC battery?
    b) When is it expected that BMW will complete testing on the PBC battery?
    c) How many "light recharging cycles" has the PbC battery achieved?
    d) Are there any marine applications for the PbC battery that Axion is currently researching? 

    3) Subject--Gen2 Robotic Line:

    a) What are the identified roadblocks that are causing the delays of the Gen2 line?
    b) Is there a time frame or deadline in which either the hardware or software issues will be solved?
    c) There was an electrostatic issue; has this issue been solved?

    4) Subject--Department of Energy Grant:

    a) What was the reasoning(s) for why the DOE grant was not awarded?
    b) Does this move up the potential date of the shareholders approved shelf offering? 
    c) Does this affect the US Department of Defense from purchasing Axion batteries?

    As written in the past Concentrator, I do not expect any earthshaking news so soon after the Investors' Conference.

    Please feel free to discuss or add any questions you deem pertinent. The purpose of turning my observations from the conference into a Concentrator format was to have a place where interested parties could post, discuss, speculate and dream of Axion's success. 

    ####

    For new followers to this fourth Axion Concentrator, please use this link to the original Axion Instablog, where observations from the June 20 Investors' Conference were related and commented upon. For ease of following or reading the Concentrators in sequence, each Concentrator ends with a link to the next. All new comments are encouraged to be written in the present Concentrator:

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/228383-mayascribe/197162-notes-and-more-from-axion-s-shareholders-conference 

       
    Stocks: AXPW
Back To Mayascribe's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (178)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Axion Concentrator from jvanwest:

     

    Bangwhiz,

     

    I agree with your assessment. I think the conference call will be an update on the existing projects, something along the lines of "the work with NS, BMW is continuing and progressing nicely etc." I hope they provide more concrete guidance on the Gen 2 line, it has been 6 months since it was delivered, although this call is for the Q2 timeframe so perhaps they will only speak to 3 months post installment? As we all know there isn't much without the Gen 2 line certified and running at rate. Without that it will be more of the same updates on existing projects.
    My greatest interest will come during the question and answer stage. I have listened to many of the last CC and there hasn't been many questions asked, I agree that after the shareholder meeting and thanks to Maya and others who went, there are alot of us who have questions we want answers to, however we will see how many of them join in and actually ask the tough questions. Unfortunately I will be just waking up from under anesthesia and will not be able to call in. I will enjoy listening to the play back!
    13 Aug 2011, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Apologies, JP. I was working on the initial draft when jvanwest had made the last comment.

     

    For continuity, here's yours:

     

    While I don't often communicate with Axion, I did send Tom Granville a link to Maya's instablog when it first went up. My best guess is that he'll be likely to address and clarify the questions during his direct presentation. Beyond that, I've been around long enough that I don't make predictions on the content of earnings calls.
    13 Aug 2011, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the fresh concentrator Maya!
    13 Aug 2011, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    JUMPER CABLES?! We don't need no stinkin' jumper cables - we're Axion PbC powered!

     

    HardToLove
    13 Aug 2011, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, what he said! ;-)
    13 Aug 2011, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Save those jumper cables for your heart, if next week is like this past one.
    13 Aug 2011, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Ha! for this market you need them Hardwired!

     

    [Reference to a cyberpunk story by Walter Jon Williams from 1986.]
    13 Aug 2011, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    In Concentrator 3 I summarized my expectations for the conference call exclusive of questions. Mayascribe listed many of the issues he identified in the header for this portion of our troll free thread. If anyone can remember my summary from the prior section I would appreciate any differing views.

     

    The only thing I want to learn from the questions is when will the Gen2 line be capable of running at full rate on a per shift basis with no material feed stock (black sheets) or other (electrostatic, robotic programming) "show stopper" issues? The line can't be certified if you can't run it day in day out. "How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?" (Pink Floyd).

     

    I would also like to know how many sales personnel they've hired, some summary of their past experience, and where they are focusing their efforts on a daily basis.

     

    Mayascribe believes Axion hasn't bottomed yet. If past history for Axion's stock price following conference calls is any guide, we can probably expect to revisit the 50's fairly soon. I am trying to decide how much money I want to leave in Axion for an account I manage on behalf of a relative until the Q3 earnings conference.
    13 Aug 2011, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » bangwhiz: And what a great summary you wrote. I fussed around with the idea of indicating which induced question came from whom. Then decided that we're all above that Blue Lights nonsense. Hoping you and others agree.

     

    You provided many ideas I would like to have answer, and for that I greatly appreciate your curiosities and guidance.

     

    LOL with the Pink Floyd reference! Hopefully, there's a mammoth amount of meat on the bone yet to be revealed!

     

    Considering infusing/editing all questions posed between now and the CC beneath the above text body, so that all relevant questions are not scattered hither and yon. Not sure how often or for what frame of time SA allows Instas to be re-re-re-and re-edited, though.

     

    Pretty sure we all retain active memories, so this may not be neccessary.
    13 Aug 2011, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Maya, the review in the header may be handy for Mr. Granville
    13 Aug 2011, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » C03: If T. Glanville is as smart as I percieve him to be, he's already figured an answer, or process to answer, to all of our questions months or years ago.

     

    A man I would love to sit down and play heads up Hold'em with, provided all I lose converts into Axion preferred shares!

     

    And there is another question which presents itself. I would love to know how to get some Axion preferred.
    13 Aug 2011, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    There are no preferred shares. In late 2009 there were two classes of preferred and the private placement funders required full conversion to common stock as a condition of the deal. So I guess you're out of luck on that count.
    13 Aug 2011, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): This is a special for JP to add to one of his prior articles if he desires, and another strong argument for grid storage needs that I think the Power Cube *may* eventually play a big part in (although the power vs. energy requirements may not yet be ideally suited?).

     

    Robert Bryce, in "The Wind-Energy Myth" points out that the results in the state with the largest installed wind-generation capacity spent 25B (generation and infrastructure) to generate abysmal percentages of both needs and name-plate capacity.

     

    And at the wrong time, as JP highlighted in one of his articles. And taxpayers are on the hook for it too!

     

    For the same money, "... about 5,000 megawatts of highly reliable nuclear generation capacity, or as much as 25,000 megawatts of natural-gas-fired capacity, all of which could have been reliably put to work during the hottest days of summer" could have been available.

     

    And with NG prices where they're at and TX being a big supplier of NG ... You can see how it might have been better.

     

    www.nationalreview.com...#

     

    Thanks to Tobyw at Investorvillage.com for the link.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I saw the article the other day and was thinking about borrowing the graph sometime soon. Another link that has me scratching my head and asking "WTF" is a 2010 study out of the National Academies titled "Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use" that does full cycle life health and other cost and greenhouse gas emission comparisons of a dozen alternative power trains and basically concludes that they all fall within ±15% of the mean both now and in the future. The funny part is that plug free HEVs and CNG fuel systems seem to be the cleanest options. Now if we could just get somebody to make a CNG fueled HEV we could all go to the beach.

     

    www.nap.edu/catalog.ph...
    15 Aug 2011, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for that link - looks very valuable!

     

    Langford Engineering converted a 7-passenger Ford over in England to be exactly that - but they chose the diesel iteration of Capstone as ease of conversion and fuel availability considerations during a one-off speculative development effort.

     

    Video available at the Capstone web site.

     

    To go NG would just require tanks, fuel system, injectors and software tweaks.

     

    Infrastructure in the U.S. would be a problem for now and, if I had my druthers, I'd prefer LNG since it's safer and higher-density (= longer range). But infrastructure is even less available since we don't have any liquifaction capacity (at the current time) outside of Alaska.

     

    CNG would get us started though and some places (like Utah) have a lot of infrastructure in place already.

     

    I hear that Europe has a lot NG vehicles, although not HEVs, so they could likely implement much quicker than the U.S.

     

    I get so tired of the U.S. bringing up the rear in all this stuff while GE makes billions manufacturing windmills in China and duping us here in the U.S. into buying.

     

    If it happens here (U.S.) it will be trucks first I think - there's already a lot of activity in that area and that will justify the infrastructure build-out by *private* enterprise, with (hopefully) very little government sponsorship.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    If some industry (probably over the road trucking) can standardize on an envelope for high pressure storage tanks, it could make a big difference in production volume and cost. The technology for making carbon fiber reinforced tanks seems to be close to mature and their volume to weight ratio is about the best available that I know of.

     

    One problem is the shape factor that the truck-cab combo is used to dealing with. I don't know how much change would be necessary to accommodate longer, skinny tanks.

     

    Anyone know of any plans going that direction?
    15 Aug 2011, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    What we're seeing in Europe are dual fuel systems that go from CNG to gasoline at the push of a button. You wouldn't want one unless you had convenient CNG fueling on your home turf, but if the CNG is readily available close to home and gasoline is available for trips farther afield, it seems to work. The people I've talked to who have the systems love them.
    15 Aug 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    John, good point. With dual fuel, the CNG tank could be a reasonable size for "running around town" and the gasoline tank for over the road traveling.

     

    I still like your CNG-HEV idea. In the southwest USA it would be an ideal "long commute" machine, with home refueling over night an option.
    15 Aug 2011, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    The Langford Whisper conversion got 80 MPG on standard diesel. I don't know the details of battery vs. fuel capacity etc. But their effort, for a first blush, ain't too shabby.

     

    With that rate on standard diesel 5 gallons give ~400 miles, so CNG at ... what 50% energy (I forget the equivalence) ought to have decent range without a really large or heavy tank of CNG.

     

    A smaller tank is safer, easier to fit in the chassis (in a safer location) too.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2011, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (10900) | Send Message
     
    It is pathetic that the US with such large natural gas resources is one of the last developed countries to take advantage of LNG. It shows how powerful the gas lobby is. China is the biggest beneficiary of LNG which lowers emissions and decreases dependence on imported oil.
    15 Aug 2011, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    I find all the discussion of LNG personally interesting, since my father-in-law works for a shipping company in Maryland that brings in tankers of LNG to the states. They built up all this infrastructure along the docks to bring in the tankers, but the demand has been so low that many of the tankers get redirected to Europe where there is more demand. Obviously, for personal reasons, I hope the demand goes up in the future.
    15 Aug 2011, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Sorry to say that's unlikely with the glut of NG and a fairly well-developed infrastructure in this country. Over the last 18 months(?) they just opened a new major leg to the northeast, providing supply to an area that had been "off the grid" so to speak.

     

    *If* we do get a large conversion to *NG vehicles, I think it will be CNG, rather than LNG, as liquifaction plants takes billions and years to build and come on-line. So CNG off the current (and expanded) grid is most likely.

     

    Last thought: the glut is severe enough that they are converting an import facility down in LA to receive loads, store it and then ship it back out at a profit on a "seasonal" basis.

     

    Good luck to your father-in-law. He might want to be keeping an eye out for other opportunities?

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2011, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • jvanwest
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    Just read the 10-Q, it seems that they have not heard from the DOE yet concerning the grant the following is from the report.

     

    "In the United States we recently received notification from the Department of Energy(“DOE”) that our proposal, under the Vehicles Technology Program DE-FOA-0000239, had passed the first round of criteria testing and had advanced to the final round of review. Our proposal was jointly submitted with a “top three” US vehicle manufacturer and the grant, if awarded, will extend for a three year period. The DOE announced on June 27, 2011 that the evaluation process is taking longer than first anticipated and that a formal announcement of selections will not occur before
    August 15, 2011 timeframe."

     

    we will see what Granville has to say tomorrow.

     

    JVW
    15 Aug 2011, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The Form 10-Q generally speaks as of the end of the quarter.
    15 Aug 2011, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    I found it mildly interesting that on Axion's website under Development Collaborators www.axionpower.com/pro...
    Axion describes its on-going relationship with East Penn, but there is no mention of Exide.
    15 Aug 2011, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    >bang: Possibly they no longer have a relationship with Exide. Their previous arrangement didn't seem to foster love and trust ;-(
    15 Aug 2011, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    The only news in the 10Q I noticed was a change in the NLT date for a capital raise to the end of Q2 2012 versus Q1 2012. It also appeared they would do more than 3.5 million in flooded battery orders.

     

    It also appears they are planning a upgrade to the existing Gen2 line with this statement within the rational for an additional capital raise: "For continued refinement of the Company’s manufacturing processes; for the next generation of our new robotic negative electrode assembly line". I didn't look at the previous 10Q to see if this was a change in language.
    15 Aug 2011, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... I must have slept through that.
    15 Aug 2011, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Previous (March) 10Q: "The basic components of this line will then be duplicated and improved as additional robotic electrode production lines are added to allow us to achieve meaningful commercialization levels."

     

    Currect 10Q: "The basic components of this line will be improved and then duplicated as additional robotic electrode production lines are added to allow us to achieve commercialization levels."

     

    Interesting they moved the word *improved* before *duplicated* and also removed the word *meaningful*. Getting worried this means there are some problems with the 2nd gen. line.
    15 Aug 2011, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    I think they were just straightening out the language on the process of finalizing the Gen2 design before ordering additional lines. Since the current line is the first version it stands to reason that they will find improvements that need to be made prior ordering more lines.

     

    Dropping the word meaningful may just be an effort to not over-hype initial commercial prospects. It isn't a thrilling document for sure. If you interpreted the 10Q to mean that nothing exciting can happen for at least a year I couldn't argue differently with you.
    15 Aug 2011, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    Certainly wasn't a thrilling read like Mayascribe is busy writing. I would be curious what JP sees in the financials. My eyes glazed over trying to decipher the numbers.
    15 Aug 2011, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    >User: I'm sure there are still problems. There will continue to be for a year or more after they go into volume production.

     

    As the total number of electrodes cycled thru the line rises into the tens of thousands, there will be more low probability problems discovered. Code bugs and intermittent noise causing sensor errors. Excess vibration. Those sorts of things.

     

    Eventually the problems will settle out to things like unexpected variations in the input material or subtle software bugs that only show up once every blue moon. Sensor calibration will drift or a sensor will get dirty and so report bad info. Evolving preventative maintenance procedures will be refined and tested. Problems will begin to look random. That's when the design is finished, after hundreds of thousands of electrode assys are processed thru one line.

     

    I once designed a machine to feed an automated silicon wafer handling system that was only loaded by hand in batches of 20 wafers in actual use. My "robot" would feed it as fast as it could run. The first night that we set it up and left the building it stopped within an hour. We quit when the wafer handler ran for 9 hours without human assistance. It was never perfect, just good enough.

     

    Within a year or less, Axion's line will be "good enough" for volume production. By then, the technicians will know the equipment well enough to almost smell when its not working correctly ;-) That's when you can clone the process and build another, remote, factory.
    15 Aug 2011, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Could be the word "meaningful" was recognized as redundant? After all, if it's not "meaningful", why do it.

     

    Now, if it had been "significant", "substantial", ... that would cause me to perk my ears up.

     

    "Crispness" in communication, with clarity of course, is always desirable and removing extraneous words is a plus, IMO.

     

    Lord, maybe I should be looking in a mirror on that score!

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2011, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    As one who's spent the last 30 years drafting similar reports I can confirm the wordsmithing never really stops, it just slows down. Generally, however, new perspectives require new sentences so I wouldn't read much into minor wording changes within a sentence.
    16 Aug 2011, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bang & SBH: Perhaps I need to do a little evincing that I unfortunately may have let slip by.

     

    Bob Avril, one of Axion's board members, took hold of the Q&A at the Investors' Conference with his speak to investors of not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry. For instance, he spoke of how BMW will have to do
    more research and due dilligence with possibly about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so.

     

    Why hasn't this happened already? Is the Detroit OEM ahead or behind, too, is a question with now scant feedback, due to the DOE not providing the grant.

     

    I construed Avril's input to be that Axion will only be providing/selling to BMW potentially that amount of batteries during this year and into next.

     

    Subliminally, maybe that's why I expect the next big announcement will come from the RR industry, and not auto, in previous comments.

     

    However, I did see an Axion car leaving the local Hampton Inn, which John and I assumed, during our 100 mile long conversation across the PA Turnpike, when I was travelling back to Philly, to be a test vehicle using the PbC battery. It was not a BMW, by the way, at first glance, as it was pulling out of the parking lot when I was entering. I truly wish I had noticed the make--Hampton Inn has a strange, poorly designed entrance/exit, and I was being the kind one, letting that Axion small-ish car get out, before I entered. Or crashed!

     

    Really enjoying yours and others banter, because that triggers a lot of stuff I failed to before write about.
    16 Aug 2011, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... So that would mean, IF, automakers placed an order it would be 2014 +/- for the 2015-16 model year? Too bad, I was figuring 1 year sooner. So forget the autos, has anyone heard any solid info from NS.
    16 Aug 2011, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I think you've added a year too much pushback. Were I an OEM I'd want to test the final manufactured product for a period of time, but I'd also be penciling that product into my next model year subject to completion of the testing. The nice thing about any testing regime is the farther you get into the testing period the more confident you get with the outcome. I've read a couple papers where BMW likes to put its test devices in heavy use vehicles like police and taxi fleets. These are great places to find problems quickly. It's obviously not over till the fat lady sings but my view would be testing orders 2012 MY, smaller model line orders 2013 MY and broad implementation 2014 MY. I also tend to agree with you and Mayascribe that rail and other applications will probably ramp more quickly.
    16 Aug 2011, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    "Ramp more quickly" ...

     

    With what's going on in the economy, stultification in the decision-making structures of many of the "other applications", and government admin in love with wind, EV and their own image in the mirror, ...

     

    I will be surprised if *anything* "ramps more quickly", other than the NS stuff. They're showing some good traits and *if* their business doesn't get hit with Great Recession 2 they might be first.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2011, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    FWIW an article by Daniel Rogala yesterday included a monthly graph of rail carloads of industrial products trough last month that shows a trough in April and improvement over the last three months.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    His premise that there won't be a double dip is a fresh view in these times of angst.
    16 Aug 2011, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DRich: I'm inclined to agree with John (below). A possible small order this year, next year a bigger one, than we land the whale.

     

    John: As far as emergency-type vehicles, I'm not sure if Axion batteries will ever be used with stop/start in mind. My nephew is an EMT. I've seen his ambulance, or a station wagon he sometimes drives, run for hours while in park. When "on duty," ambulances, fire trucks, home care transport vehicles all have to be running all the time. With O2 compressors and what not, emergency vehicle hotel load is massive.

     

    That's probably why most are diesel engines, too.

     

    Of course, we could switch it around and provide a much better, longer lasting battery to cost conscious municipalities, that can do light discharges "forever."

     

    But no way with stop/start involved.
    16 Aug 2011, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I've sent you a copy of an Accepted Manuscript for the Journal of Power Sources that speaks of BMW's stop-start testing with the Munich PD and VIP shuttle fleets.

     

    "Please cite this article as: S. Schaeck, T. Karspeck, C. Ott, M.Weckler, A.O. Stoermer, A field operational test on VRLA-AGM batteries in micro-hybrid electric vehicles. Part I. Results based on Kernel Density Estimation, Journal of Power Sources (2010), doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour...
    16 Aug 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks, John. I'll check it out. Without reading it, I believe stop/start could work with police cars, especially European ones.

     

    Where I live, in PA, police cruisers are always on, though, except when the cops are eating their doughnuts and cheesesteaks for lunchbreak. When my mother was failing in health, the police were over a bunch of times, and they always left the cruiser running while waiting for ambulatory care.
    16 Aug 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I suspect it's as much a good working relationship with their home town PD as anything else. With the manufacturer on hand at a moment's notice to provide needed support, it's a different situation than it would be for a PD in the boondocks. I just found the relationships with the PD and VIP shuttle services a fascinating insight into the teutonic mind.
    16 Aug 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... OK, maybe I'm being a little hard on the auto industry. Such is my nature. IF/WHEN the Gen2 line is up and qualified to run at rate, a small order this year (or next) and a bigger one the following year isn't likely to exceed the capacity of that line (if I'm thinking my numbers straight). I know that is "growth" but not in the way the market measures it.

     

    I'm getting a little impatient to see the business model in action. Even if it's a little action. I'd like to know if it is viable. As such, I'm more interested in what's happening in Altoona & Cheyenne.
    16 Aug 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    And another bright spot was capacity utilization was up.

     

    www.calculatedriskblog...

     

    IIRC, Santelli said highest since sometime in '08 this morning.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2011, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    There wasn't anything that really jumped out at me but I'm delighted to see restrained spending, a small push back in the we'll need more money date and 200% YoY revenue growth. I'll be most interested in Tom's discussion of how things are going on the second generation line. I'm a lot like Siliconhillbilly when it comes to production process improvement and refinement. Over the next few years I expect to watch them progress through several generations of line enhancements as they improve quality and cut costs.
    16 Aug 2011, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2271) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Why did the 10Q include the below quote/language when the DOE shipped has sailed - or so it seemed. Is it because the Q only looks at past events prior to quarter end?

     

    It seems like they could have updated the language based on last week's revelations.

     

    Also what was that from the DOE last week; was it not a "formal announcement", is there any reading into the semantics here?

     

    "Our proposal was jointly submitted with a top three US vehicle manufacturer and the grant, if awarded, will extend for a three year period. The DOE announced on June 27, 2011 that the evaluation process is taking longer than first anticipated and that a

     

    formal announcement of selections will not occur before August 15, 2011 timeframe"
    16 Aug 2011, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Was this the first time the quarterly report stated that Axion was working with European OEM's (plural). I do not recall the plural usage before but could be mistaken.
    As to the Sales figures. Is their any way to decipher how much of the ramped up sales were PbC compared to flooded lead acid? The cost of production numbers are about 80% of the total sales. Since the flooded LA product has little cost I am concluding that the PbC sales are the majority of the reported sales. Does that make any accounting sense to you? If so, how would you evaluate those sales in terms of battery volume?
    16 Aug 2011, 05:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Form 10-Q is supposed to speak as of the end of the reporting period, which is what this one does. I think the DOE clearly made a formal announcement last week and will be interested in hearing management's take during today's conference call.
    16 Aug 2011, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Management has used the plural with respect to its OEM relationships for as far back as I can remember. BMW is the only one that's far enough along to have publicly aligned itself with the PbC, but it's not the only dog in the hunt by any means. This is one of those odd cases where the big battery users of the world have found the road less traveled to New Castle in their search of a better battery.

     

    The MD&A said "we have one customer that accounted for approximately 78% and 75% of product sales for the three and six month periods ended June 30, 2011." Based on that disclosure, I believe flooded battery sales were $0.8 million in Q-1 and $1.3 million in Q-2. Since the flooded battery sales are being made under contract with another battery manufacturer, they'd typically carry a lower margin and higher product cost per dollar of sales revenue than Axion's proprietary products.
    16 Aug 2011, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I also want to add that I will not be listening to the Axion conference call tomorrow, because I will be listening to another one; that being Elephant Talk (ETAK), beginning at the same time.

     

    Even though I'm a little over 100 times more invested in Axion than ETAK, this company is potentially on the cusp of having major cell phone makers like Google and Apple adopt its platform for securely
    charging stuff using a smart cell phone, globally. Exciting, game changing potential. Something like $80B/yr in this emerging very secure cell phone "tap" technology, where just in the US about $100B of fraudulent credit card charges occur every year.

     

    ETAK's intent is to undo all credit card fraud.

     

    If this piques your interest, zip into my today's comment stream, for links and other stuff. ETAK's another potential 10, 20, 30 bagger, in time.

     

    Don't want to clog this Axion column with other ideas, but then I also don't want to be caught summarizing in Quick Chat--if I do listen in--a synopsis of that CC, rather than Axion's, here.

     

    All up to you guys!
    16 Aug 2011, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Hello Maya,
    ETAK sounds like a good investment opportunity. Could you shed more light on it? Has it passed the death of valley and put its foot on transition stage?
    Many thanks!
    16 Aug 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Frrat: Suggest you go into my comment thread. I did a brief summary today, and yesterday provided several links from different sources for which to brush up on Elephant Talk.

     

    Welcome to this Axion Concentrator! The mood today here is a little frustrated. But that will pass.
    16 Aug 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Q2 Press release. I don't recall this being touched on in the 10-Q.

     

    "We believe that 2011 will see our first significant PbC commercial order, and that is likely to be from Norfolk Southern if we and they adhere to the timeline they have communicated to us".

     

    [HTL]: But do recall in prior CCs they stated that they felt NS had slipped the schedule, although they did believe it was still a '11 order time-frame.

     

    www.prnewswire.com/new...

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2011, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Axion 6/30 Q2 CC Notes.

     

    8/16/2011 11:00

     

    Tom: re recent shareholder meeting. Overwhelming support, as previously discussed, for directors and S-3 shelf registration. COH sufficient through Q2 '12, new registration is not intended for these uses.

     

    Talked about PbC batteries produced for NS, progressing well on their test platform and noted very low voltage variations – a positive.

     

    Talked about the LA production and benefits, including “tuning”, training, commonality of processes and materials.

     

    Happy with robotic PbC production progress.

     

    Work continues on HEV market and have early Sept. meetings with Euro customers.

     

    “Even though DOE declined to fund the JV development program, work will continue. Apparently DOE has Li-ion focus even as Euro folks move away from that.

     

    No awards to LA tech under this program.

     

    'Cube and mini-cube development continuing.

     

    Q: Peter Kim ISI Capital, shift prod capacity in low-hundreds per shift, sufficient to scale?
    A: Sufficient capacity for present orders, fund raise will address 2nd/3rd robot lines for more production and can go multiple shifts. So yes, sufficient capacity for “near future” events seen.

     

    Q: $28M enough?
    A: $28M was for flexibility. Don't envision using anywhere near that amount.

     

    Q: Euro shifting, what are JCI, XIDE doing? Got on different LA or carbon design?
    A: Can't speak for them. Our plan is to take the electrodes to customers. Not competing with them. Will look to be provider to those companies.

     

    Closing, Tom: only 27 days since last call, so not surprised at few questions. Nevertheless, progress on NS, 'Cube, comm links and all hookups operational and supports all potential application testing.

     

    [Bill] A new mention? Oil rigs?

     

    Solar panel hookups EOM or early next month.

     

    Good progress.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2011, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The "dwell time challenge" on the second generation line is to get each station down to something on the order of six seconds, and get them all synchronized. An eight hour shift has 4,800 six second intervals. At 80% of design capacity, the line would make about 3,900 electrode assemblies per shift, or enough for 130 batteries.

     

    Mr. Granville did say that they've built four new PbC strings for the Cube, a total of 640 batteries, sent a new testing string to NS, created an identical testing string in New Castle and are preparing to ship new batteries to their OEM partners in the US and Europe. I total I have to believe there are over 1,000 PbC batteries that use electrode assemblies built on the second generation line (±30 electrode assemblies per battery).

     

    There have been a couple mentions of oil rigs in prior calls. A working land rig typically uses three diesel generators and a huge chunk of the energy consumption comes from tripping the drill string in and out of the hole. Since a typical string weighs 20 pounds per foot and is tripped down in 100' sections, the opportunity for energy recuperation is huge. It's another one of those specialty niche applications with a great payback period and an amazingly large market potential when you start thinking in terms of a MWh per working rig.
    16 Aug 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    >JP: Just thinking out loud here. Re: oil drilling rigs. A microturbine genset costs around $1.50 - 2.00 per Watt, with some allowance for overhead. I'll use that as the "diesel genset" baseline cost. A power cube type storage system would need to cost about the same to be accepted as a replacement for a genset. I know that some fuel costs are also avoided if the battery can salvage maybe 50% of the energy from pulling/lowering a drill string. I figure that as the "profit" for the driller for changing technologies to the battery solution. At least initially.
    The (now fewer) diesel gensets would top up the battery with their excess capacity when the string is actually drilling. That's an assumption based on John's comments about the process related power requirements of a drill rig. That is, much more power required when raising/lowering the drill string.
    There should also be some savings in maintenance on the missing genset. I can't put numbers to that.

     

    The obvious question is, can a Power Cube of sufficient size be sold for less than $1.50 / Watt ? If the PbC in naked form is sold at around $0.30/Watt, it looks like a reasonable proposition. I don't have any actual numbers on the pricing of the Cube, but the ratio of battery/system cost allowed in this crude analysis seems reasonable. That is, the balance of the Cube system is less than 4x the raw PbC cost. Obviously there needs to be a profit in there for Axion :-)

     

    Thoughts?
    16 Aug 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The fuel savings is actually pretty immense - basically getting rid of a diesel genet and the attendant fuel and transportation costs. My back of the napkin calculations came out to something like a 3 year cash on cash based on fuel savings alone.
    16 Aug 2011, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Yes, that's about what I took away from the call. I had to listen to the thing on my computer so I wasn't able to call in and ask questions. I'm kind of miffed actually. We have all these shareholders running around the web asking question after question about the production line, the carbon mats, time frames for OEM certification of the Gen2 line, etc, and when we actually get to the CC there is ONE caller who asks a few questions! If anyone posts anything in the next week that says "why haven't they answered this..." I'm going to scream at them that if they wanted answers why the #%##$^ didn't they ask them!

     

    Sorry, just a little annoyed.
    16 Aug 2011, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Shortly after the CC, bid went away and pps trades as low as $0.56.

     

    But fear not - these are, so far, "weak hands" as the volumes total only ~50K (total day's volume so far 152.6K). Bid/ask *presented* right now is 2.5K/2.5K $0.565/$0.619. The ask is staying above $0.60 where it has been all morning.

     

    As JP likes to point out, more shares leaving weak hands and entering strong hands.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2011, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    While I hate the current price, I figure that somebody who's a willing seller at $.57 would be equally willing at $.67 or $.77. Frankly I'm delighted to see them all selling to folks who have higher expectations than a dime here and a dime there. The willing seller pool is looking more and more like a puddle with each passing day. Sooner or later it will be nothing more than cracked mud and today's buyers will be very happy campers.
    16 Aug 2011, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    It does not bother you guys it is trading below its 50 day moving average?

     

    The problem here is that people buying now at .57 will be pretty willing to sell at a double if that occurs anytime soon. I don't take quite as much comfort as you both.
    16 Aug 2011, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >jakurtz ... Nothing about this company moves fast. That includes the stock price. If it doubles and sells off ... so be it. It is speculation.
    16 Aug 2011, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Silver lining: if the $0.60 price holds thru Jan. 01 2012, small-time AXPW collectors like myself could add another 10,000 shares to a tax-free Roth IRA. Based on a $12.00 top, what a nifty belated xmas gift that would be for long-term holders who can wait for their risk/reward payoff.
    16 Aug 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The nice thing about my blog is I have little or no appeal to the hot money crowd. I talk in broad terms of macroeconomic forces and two to three year development horizons. I'm also a former director which automatically makes everything I say suspect. People who've read my blog over the years have all climbed their individual walls of worry and made investment decisions for a very uncertain timeframe. They don't mind buying at today's price and sticking the stock in a drawer for two or three years, but they'll never chase the price.

     

    I have a hard time imagining that there are many people out there buying Axion with either a short time horizon or modest appreciation objectives. There will no doubt be some, but I think they'll be a small minority.
    16 Aug 2011, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Let's just face facts. As you said "Batteries are a grudge purchase" and a grunge investment. Without the PR of a GS (or someone) trading is light and profit is slow or bubble popping fast fading to red. People would rather buy dirt that will never make a profit than a battery company. Look to Molycorp (MCP) as example, or better yet, the look on the face of friends & family when they ask advice and you tell them any battery company name (Johnson Controls (JCI) is the only exception I've found). Downing kittens makes more sense.

     

    And yet ... here I am. Absolutely sure red will turn green for Christmas ... someday.
    16 Aug 2011, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't think I ever said batteries are a grunge investment, just one where expectations diverge sharply from from reality. I think a big part of the problem is that batteries are really boring, which means companies choose applications to talk about rather than the batteries. They're also one of the most raw materials and production efficiency dependent industries one can imagine, but if the PR focuses on the gee-whiz applications instead of the boring batteries, all that hard stuff can be avoided in polite conversation.

     

    For better or worse Axion is keeping the focus on the PbC battery and the challenges of putting it into challenges production. They do talk about the various market niches where the PbC has disruptive potential, and those niches are legion, but at the end of the day the battery is all that matters.
    17 Aug 2011, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... the "grunge" is outside the quotes and is just me saying, not you. Sorry to confuse.
    17 Aug 2011, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    rgholbrook - actually, buying in your Traditional IRA and Converting to the Roth is possible anytime, and any higher priced AXPW resting in the Traditional can be Converted now at lower prices - it's a good practice, if you happen to buy high/convert low (and pay the lower tax). Conversions, as you know, are not limited as contributions ARE.

     

    So much for my free financial advising: Converting Unlimited High-Priced Buys from Trad IRA's to Roths at lower prices and pay the tax.
    17 Aug 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    I listened on the web and frankly expected a lot more questions also. People simply weren't interested in the technical details of getting the GenII line up to snuff. People wanted to hear about sales and the only major prospect is NS which we all knew about going into the call.

     

    Axion needs a bigger boat for the auto market and until they get one they can't land any significant auto business. No auto company is going to place a major order with a one production line microcap company.
    16 Aug 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Apologies, LabTech. I was listening in to the Elephant Talk CC, which was positvely stunning, designed with the approach to decide to add to my current puny ETAK postition during a dip, or not.

     

    I now know that I will adding.

     

    What seems to be the case about the Gen2 line is that there is plenty of time yet to sort out the bugs. When I was there, it appeared they were on track. I was assured that they will have the software issues regarding dwell time per robot sorted through in a couple of months. As I recall, it was only the last two or so robots that have "to get used to which is doing what, when."

     

    The first nine or so robots work okay, except for the electrostatic issue.

     

    I really did not expect any new news that I did not pick up on at the conference. We'll have another crack in three months to ask the questions listed above. Pending an act of God, or another ETAK CC at the same time (ETAK's much closer to rolling out into the final test phases with Visa Europe), I'll be asking some of the above questions, especially ones about the mysterious HT30.

     

    By then, the Gen2 kinks should be worked out, too.

     

    ####

     

    HTL: Thanks for taking notes. Yes, I did hear of oil rig possibilities at the Investors' Conference.

     

    John: I would love to have known if the HT30 is what's now being tested by Norfolk. The Power Cube I stood in held this battery.

     

    ####

     

    Regrets and apologies to all that I chose to look into another investing premise today. Was a tough decision. But, I wanted to learn more about another potential game changing multibagger, which in time will revolutionize how debit and charge cards are used.

     

    16 Aug 2011, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    O.K. now that I'm a little less annoyed, here are my other thoughts from the CC.

     

    CC started late. Never like to see that.
    I'm glad others could follow the financials, because I got confused after about a minute of the guy talking. Important notes seem to be that they have enough funding through Q2 of next year at current use rate and they have $18-28 million sitting on the shelf for scale up, more RD, PbC demonstrations, Sales/Marketing staff, refinements, more Gen2 lines, working capital.
    Granville made it quite clear that the auto OEM's are important for the future, but the here and now revolves around NS, getting their testing done, and anticipating a commercial order from NS by the end of fiscal year 2011. This order from NS is obviously where he hopes the expected "bump" in the stock to come from before they start selling the shelf.
    You could hear the disdain in Mr. Granville's voice for the DOE and their Li-ion only funding. He was obviously very annoyed by the whole thing, going so far as to quote JD Power and basically saying the US government is just ignoring the realities of the world to fund nothing but Li-ion.
    Didn't really give a satisfying answer to the time frame for getting the PbC line up to real production specifications and nothing about questions concerning production of the carbon sheets, but then again...no one asked. Basically says they can make enough to fill their test requirements and anything NS and the auto OEM's want in the short term...ie through the rest of this year.
    Danced around the JCI, Xide question. It seems clear to me that they have talked to both. Both would rather just make AGM batteries and would like to pretend that PbC isn't an option but that they will come up with improvements in their AGM batteries to meet the OEM's requirement. So basically it's going to come down to the point where Axion can make the PbC electrodes at enough pace that the OEMs will "tell" JCI and Xide to fill their orders with PbC electrodes. Until that happens, there won't be any meaningful discussions.
    Those are the highlights as I see them.
    16 Aug 2011, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Excellent thoughts, IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2011, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    I started purchasing Axion stock back in early 2009. Have followed John and his reports ever since. I have continually added stock on the pullbacks. I have watched a 40,000 share investment triple and then decline 80%. I have lowered my average cost as I watch my shares multiply and my losses mount. But I am not discouraged. Why? Because every time I think of my situation I remember John and his 2 Million shares at an average price of one dollar. He has suffered a million dollar loss and raves about the prospect of the future of this company. I can not get discouraged when every report shows that this company is headed in the correct direction, with a great product, at the right time, and should be at the right price. We are talking game changer here. Not a similar product in a new package. It takes a lot of time and money to create factories around the globe making a proprietary product everyone wants. For us to complain because the Gen 2 line is slow ( but working) is shortsighted. Believe me I have done my share of whining and whimpering over the short term setbacks. My wife has already written Axion off as my fools gold approach to our retirement. But this quarter was a lovely quarter.

     

    #1. Axion is making real products and making enough money to stave off the vulture financiers for at least one more year. Do you know what happens when a big NS order hits this year? The stock goes higher because the financing risk becomes nill.

     

    2. Gen 2 line is making low three number products per shift. Lets say Gen 2 can make 180 electrodes per shift. that is 60 batteries at $240 = about $4,000,000 dollars worth of product per shift. That is PbC production not flooded batteries. That is one shift not two or three. That is real production. Certainly not optimal production but real production. This is much better than last quarter.

     

    3. Oil wells
    It has been two years since Granville first talked about the Power Cube and the oil well potential. The market is huge, I believe about 3,000 oil wells. Each need a boatload of PbCs. They simply take the energy expended by the drill ( regenerative braking) and replace fuel spent on an oil rig ( normally diesel) to free electrical use. It is a great untapped market.

     

    4. Home use.
    This conference call talks about solidifying the relationship and ongoing testing using the small power cube for home use. I believe they mean for those homes that need storage of solar and wind power. A small market that could develop into a great niche market.

     

    5 Start/ Stop

     

    The great and final frontier of a market for Axion. I certainly believed Axion would be making product for the 2012 model year. 2013 at the least. But really. If we can make 60 batteries a day can we expect BMW to accept that? No. Axion is not yet ready. Show a Gen line producing twice that much and now you can produce 100,000 per year per line. I wish as much as anyone that Axion could do that today. But it simply isn't to be yet. I have faith that production and manufacturing issues will be worked out shortly. I have faith that this battery will be effective. I have faith that this battery will be cost effective enough that JCI and Exide will have to make it.

     

    But faith and reality do have their separations. In my household, I have faith anf the better half has great doubts. I'm sure this disparity exists in a lot of places.

     

    I wish all posters well in their investing. But I caution them to not despair over a development company that is truly on the edge of greatness.
    I wish all Axion investors great patience in their investment horizons.
    16 Aug 2011, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,

     

    Loved everything you said, but I think your math is off by a factor of 10. Either that, or I've misread what JP has written.

     

    "2. Gen 2 line is making low three number products per shift. Lets say Gen 2 can make 180 electrodes per shift. that is 60 batteries at $240 = about $4,000,000 dollars worth of product per shift. That is PbC production not flooded batteries. That is one shift not two or three. That is real production. Certainly not optimal production but real production. This is much better than last quarter. "

     

    It is my understanding that each battery takes 30 electrodes, not 3. So if they are making 180 electrodes/shift that is 6 batteries, not 60. So at $240/battery = $1440/shift. Not sure where you go from $1440/shift to $4,000,000 worth of product, unless you are multiplying that over a 6 day work week and production for 50 weeks out of the year? Then you get to about $400,000/year.

     

    If my math is wrong, someone please let me know?

     

    Thanks.
    16 Aug 2011, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    LabTech/Futurist,
    It is my understanding that indeed each battery takes 30 carbon electrodes and the maximum possible output per shift per line is 4800 electrodes. That works out to be enough electrodes for 160 PbC batteries in 8 hours but that is the theoretical maximum and JP used 130 batteries per shift which is just slightly over 80% of the maximum capacity. Using that 130 figure we project the current output from the single Gen 2 line for 1 shift over 52 weeks equals 33,800 PbCs per year. If you add a second and 3rd shift (24/5) the output jumps to 101,400 batteries per year from ONE Gen 2 electrode line. Add 11 more lines and the output jumps to 1,216,800 PbCs per year. At $240 per PbC battery the revenue from a full 12 electrode lines at approx. 80% of theoretical capacity is $292,032,000. Let me know if you see any errors in my numbers.

     

    I have a couple questions. What is the capacity of the battery plant production lines? Does anyone see Axion shipping electrodes to another battery manufacturer by say the end of 2012 or is that too optimistic?

     

    thx
    Kent G
    16 Aug 2011, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    See KentG's calculations below because they're the closest to my understanding of the numbers.
    17 Aug 2011, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    See KentG's comment.
    17 Aug 2011, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I believe 30 carbon electrode assemblies per battery is right. When you start talking about adding shifts, the productivity per shift that I've always heard from industrial engineering types is 80% for a day shift, 70% for a swing shift and 60% for a night shift. So if I was doing a back of the napkin capacity calculation for a three shift operation, I'd expect to produce 9,600 electrode assemblies per line per day - or enough electrode assemblies for 320 batteries. For a 50 week work year, it works out to electrodes for 80,000 batteries per line per year. So a hypothetical 12 line operation would cost about $60 million to build and be within spitting distance of electrodes for a million PbC batteries per year.

     

    Since Axion has always been careful to avoid setting a clear price, but they've previously published numbers that imply a $100 price spread between a PbC and an AGM battery, I like to separate the revenue potential into two pieces. If a 12 line facility can make electrodes for a million batteries per year, I think in terms of $100 million in electrode value which is all Axion, and $150 in AGM battery value which will go to whomever owns the battery plant.

     

    The permitted capacity in New Castle is about 750,000 batteries per year from two flooded battery lines and one AGM line. I'm not sure whether the throughput capacities of the lines are different, but think that 1,000 PbC batteries per day is probably on the high side. It that number is right, then Axion could max out it's PbC manufacturing capacity with three electrode fabrication lines.

     

    My sense is that Axion would like to build as many complete batteries as possible before it starts selling electrode assemblies to others, but even 250,000 PbC batteries per year would represent a revenue potential in the $85 million range from the New Castle plants with under $10 million in additional capital spending.

     

    When you start talking about building additional electrode fabrication facilities for other battery plants, the numbers can quickly get very silly.
    17 Aug 2011, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Sorry for the confusion. I always think in terms of completing the New Castle plant with another 9 lines of automation. That is where I multiplied by 10. Forgetting to mention this little point however made what I wrote quite confusing.

     

    John's explanation below of the maximum capacity of the lines is much clearer than my narrative. We never mention as a group the possibility of turning the two flooded lead acid battery lines into AGM lines at the Axion plant. This would triple the possible PbC production. The plant is permitted for 3,000 batteries per day. I do not know the cost or permitting procedure for making that change but it does seem to me to be a very real possibility down the road.

     

    Of course the simplest solution is to hire our friends ( East Penn) up the road to make the batteries for us. Kinda like the flooded lead acid battery contract we now have that has been a significant boon to Axion.
    17 Aug 2011, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't imagine there would be any permitting problems in changing the flooded lines over to AGM. Unfortunately I don't have any idea what a changeover might cost.
    17 Aug 2011, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    Futurist - what a wonderful LOVE STORY! Almost HOPE and CHANGE at it's best. And, of course, I also hope you are right, but...............
    17 Aug 2011, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Naked,
    Its hard to talk to me about a Love Story since the "love of my life" and I are an E-Harmony success story. Both over the age of 50 and from different states. We would love for Axion to provide us a comfortable retirement but realize that what we have together far exceeds any returns we might get from a stock purchase.

     

    Axion is a good test of a relationship. She loved me at + $80,000 and she loves me at -$45,000. Who could "hope" for more or ask for that to "change".
    17 Aug 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    Futurist - the Love Story I was referring to is the one probably mentioned in "The Intelligent Investor" - message was: don't fall in love with your stocks. Wives, on the other hand, are good to fall in love with!
    18 Aug 2011, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Futurist: Great rallying cry comment! Only for me, there's no need to rally...again, at least me. I agree that Axion is on the cusp of greatness. I have no doubt that both you and I, John and everyone here will be well in the black by this time next year.

     

    I don't think anyone has ever won the Main Event being impatient. I just bought a home for cash. My game is that by 2014 Axion will have paid for my home, investment, and taxes incurred. Way better than even a 4% 30 year mortgage in my book.

     

    A little quibble with some math:

     

    2. Gen 2 line is making low three number products per shift. Lets say Gen 2 can make 180 electrodes per shift. that is 60 batteries at $240 = about $4,000,000 dollars worth of product per shift.

     

    Those shift employees better be making $1000/hour, with that kind of margin! ;-)

     

    ####

     

    Friends: On the note of rallying--this is one of the most bullish things I've read in some time (pasted in from my private email account):

     

    By John Melloy, Executive Producer, Fast Money

     

    As regular investors fled the unprecedented stock market volatility this month, purchases by company executives relative to sales hit the highest levels since 1998, according to one of the more widely-watched insider buying newsletters on Wall Street.

     

    There was an almost eight-fold increase in buy transactions over two weeks and 16-fold jump during the last three weeks, according to Vickers Weekly Insider, which is published by Argus Research. The ratio of sale transactions vs. buy transactions dropped to 0.35, the lowest reading since during the bull market in 1998 and one of the rare occasions when purchases actually outnumbered sales, said the Vickers report from Monday.

     

    A ratio below one is meaningful because selling typically always outweighs buying because of options expiration and other factors. The ratio was last below one in March of 2009, the month the current bull market began.

     

    “With market volatility increasing last week, corporate executives and directors have seized the opportunity to increase their holdings,” said David Coleman of Vickers, in the report. “Insiders have turned bullish. Very bullish.”

     

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved more than 400 points four days in a row last week for the first time in the benchmark’s history. The gyrations caused retail investors to yank more money out of equity mutual funds than they have during a single week since 2002. Traders, for the most part, believe insider buying has a spotty track record as far as market timing is concerned because sometimes the purchases are just token PR ploys. Other times, the insiders don’t have quite the insight that one might think they have, as was the case during a pop in insider buying in 2008 before the bear market lows. However, the intensity of this recent buying has certainly gotten people’s attention.

     

    “I’m a skeptical sort, but have noticed the insider buying in some of the stocks I own and monitor and I am unabashedly impressed,” said Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital and formerly of SAC Capital.

     

    On August 8th when the turmoil began, the S&P 500 plunged almost 7 percent as investors got their first chance to flee risk after the Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating. Insiders did the opposite however, as 47 buy transactions were counted among CEOs, CFOs and COOs of companies during that trading day, according to StreetInsider.com.

     

    “This data should be highlighted in conjunction with all the negativity in the market,” according to a report from the research web site after the close that day. “The data suggests these insiders see major value in their company stocks at current levels and are looking to put their personal money to work to buy on the cheap.”

     

    StreetInsider cited purchases by MF Global’s CEO Jon Corzine and KB Home’s CEO Jeffrey Mezger. Among the more notable purchases that came later in the week were insiders from JPMorgan, Chesapeake Energy, NYSE Euronext, Kraft, GM and Corning.

     

    InsiderScore.com, which tracks the performance of insiders’ purchases, gave particular weight to the $877,000 purchase on Aug. 10 by Jim Flaws, CFO of Corning, and the $251,000 purchase by GM CEO Daniel Akerson on Aug. 9.

     

    “We like that Akerson, who took home a base salary of $567,000 last year, continues to put his cash to work,” stated an InsiderScore report that day. Flaws’ purchase “is his first since he made an exceptionally well-timed call in November 2008, when the stock hit what is now an eight-year low.”

     

    The stark contrast in reactions between investors and CEOs may be a function of time horizon. One would expect an executive to have a much longer holding period than investors today, especially when you take into account all the day traders and high-frequency hedge funds out there.

     

    “While valuations appear attractive, the question remains, is this a buying opportunity?” wrote Larry Adam, chief investment strategist for Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, in a note. “Depending on your investment horizon, the answer is both ‘yes’ and ‘no.’ For long term buy and hold investors, the favorable view on equities is based on attractive valuations.”

     

    Adam cited the fact that the average dividend yield for companies in the S&P 500 is the same as the 10-year Treasury yield for only the second time over the past 30 years. Executives probably feel at these levels, their company’s growth prospects are better over 10 years than a Treasury note.
    16 Aug 2011, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    “We like that Akerson, who took home a base salary of $567,000 last year, continues to put his cash to work" ... Wonder if Mr. Granville will follow in his footsteps?
    17 Aug 2011, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Axion's founder's group of 10 individuals invested almost $15 million of their own cash before we started going to outsiders for capital. Like me, they're all in at an average price that's higher than today's market price. It would be unwise to underestimate the amount of skin Tom Granville has in the game.
    17 Aug 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    I listened carefully to the replay of the CC again and TG said "low 3 figure number of BATTERIES per shift" - not low 3 figure electrodes. Now you can recalculate sales potential using low 3 figure number of batteries per shift. TG also said getting to the desired rate was "just a matter coordination" which fits the programming of "if then" statements spoken of by the plant manager. Not bad.
    16 Aug 2011, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    Bangwhiz,

     

    Yes, I just checked my notes again and you are correct. He did say low hundreds of batteries/shift not electrodes. Which means that even if we say 100 batteries, suggests they can run the Gen2 line at 3000 PbC electrodes/shift already. That would almost be at what JP would suggest is their 80% capacity, which is a far cry from what they reported they could make a month ago. I'll have to listen again to see if he says they can "currently" do that, or they will be "able" to do that.
    17 Aug 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The most interesting thing I noted was that when Mr. Granville started ticking off the batteries that have been made using electrodes from the Gen2 line he spoke of 640 for the PowerCube, a couple of big strings for NS testing and deliveries of new prototypes to automotive OEMS. When I put it all together I see something on the order of 1,000 batteries and 30,000 electrodes over the last couple months. It's not a rate of 100s per day yet, but it's a far cry from the 1 per day that people were fretting about because of comments made at the stockholders meeting.
    17 Aug 2011, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Bang & Labtech,

     

    I also rechecked the CC. Mr. Granville was quite explicit.
    " We are not yet at our rated capacity of electrodes to produce a low three figure number of batteries per shift." But he thinks they are just about there.

     

    Its no wonder that he isn't concerned with meeting the locomotive order during 2011. If I remember that is about 1600 batteries, plus the BMS. That is only 16 days production. How long for the rest of the system is beyond my paygrade.

     

    The mini power cubes for homes and oil rigs can now be made to order for testing and sales and still have plenty of production capacity. 120 work days left in the year means capacity of 10,000-12000 batteries. Lots of room for learning error and growth curve. Calendar year 2012 will be the year when multiple sales can occur. One line-three shifts @ 250 batteries per day for 260 work days= 65,000 batteries at $240 per battery.
    If Axion can get the orders the one line can produce $15,000,000 in revenue. Since TG is planning on using some of the shelf registration for a couple new lines I have to believe he has a giant order coming from somewhere. Otherwise he would simply ramp up the one line and wait for the orders to come in.
    It would be nice if he were more of a carnival barker luring me in with his sales pitch, but I guess doing it the right way ( like following the SEC rules) isn't so bad.
    17 Aug 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Axion has always been circumspect in discussing plans and more open in discussing accomplishments. They seem to have taken to heart the wisdom that they should take care of the business and let the market take care of itself. Over the short-term, a low public profile can be painful. Over the long term, the returns to both the company and the stockholders who "get it" outweigh the short-term pain.
    17 Aug 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    'Over the short-term, a low public profile can be painful.'

     

    The words are true and the pain is real. But- No pain, No gain.
    17 Aug 2011, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    Hello All, Its been at least a week since I was here, and there sure has been lots of good stuff posted since then. Much to chew on.
    I was listening to the call today, and somehow didnt get recognized when I pushed star -one to ask questions. Sceeezch, I hate it when that happens. I did call into I-R, but havent heard back yet.
    I think the main point today was that the gen one line is capable of making low hundreds in one shift,, I assume that is batteries. This is more than enough to take on anything NS dishes out next year. If all goes well, I assume they may convert 5-10 locomotives in 2012,,just a guess though, and that would be the second half.
    Looks like we are on schedule for 9-10$M in 2011..which is pretty nice when you look at all the qtr numbers in the last 12 qtrs..great curve up.
    Does anyone think they might go to NS or a BMW for a cash infusion? I remember someone saying they dont play that game, but if either had plans to make a substantial order it might make cents. One of my questions was, how long would NS test its first locomotive before placing more orders. I will save that for IR or the next call.
    Well, more later hang tough. Matt
    16 Aug 2011, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    In the past I've had a number of clients in the position that Axion's in today. They seem to spend forever cleaning up the street and moving stock from weak hands to strong hands. When the supply-demand inflection point hits, and there are more buyers than sellers, the stock price starts to climb rapidly and the new market dynamic creates a pull demand from the market for new shares. Companies that couldn't get an investment banker to give them the time of day start getting unexpected and unsolicited calls from bankers who want to do deals. That's when fund raising gets fun because the bankers are competing for the company's attention instead of the other way around.

     

    Since April of last year when the resale registration statement for the shares sold in December 2009 went effective, total reported trading volume has been 69.3 million shares. Since OTC transactions are double counted, that means about 35 million shares have moved from the hands of sellers to the hands of new buyers. For the entire year of 2009, about 3.5 million shares moved from the hands of sellers to the hands of new buyers. For that entire period, the only stockholders who could sell without taking a big loss were the 2009 buyers. I believe that most of the buying power came from a fairly small cadre of buyers who found Axion the same way you did and invested with the same kind of expectations you have. If I'm right, the effective float - meaning shares that are available to the market at anywhere near the current price - is getting very tight and demand is remaining very strong at a 200-day average daily trading volume of 285,000 shares. With that kind of established buying demand in place and a dwindling supply of shares available for sale, there is only one possible outcome barring an economic catastrophe.

     

    The common wisdom is that some commercialization event will move the stock price. Unless Axion is way different from every client I've had over the last 30 years, one day we'll wake up and the market will start climbing for no apparent reason and the stock will go from undervalued to overvalued. We won't even recognize the change until we look back and ask "what caused the run." I thought it had started in February, but that double was merely prelude to the next step.
    17 Aug 2011, 02:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I posed this exact...how many batteries per day question to TG. His answer was it's all dependent upon what the orders are, but also said something to the effect that if Axion wanted to, they could make 4000 batteries/day.

     

    This included flood acid batts, i.e., both plants production capability.

     

    I truly appreciate all the technical, way over my head stuff all of you are producing, questioning and speculating...and I'm also the first one to admit that I'm no batt geek that can produce the engineering insights as to what you guys can do.

     

    The point I'm trying to make, albeit obscure, is that presently Axion can meet today's and tomorrow's short term demand. The Gen2 line is still being working on, and until we know it's up and running perfectly, we will not know the single Gen2 daily production capability. Much less times 11 more robot lines up and running. We forget that they can still push out hand-assisted made batteries.

     

    That's what NS and BMW are currently testing. As for the HT30, we've no input. Something just occured to me that it will actually be easier to make the HT30 than the PbC, because the PbC graphite plate has to be "folded over," and the HT30 doesn't. One less step.

     

    We also know that Axion is more about contractually farming out to other battery manufacturers their PbC technology. That's where the big money will be; not making in-house complete batteries, but rather how many of these anodes they can make in a day, a week, or a year. And then send out the anodes to much larger battery manufacturers.

     

    I believe that will be the best margin profitability we have, given all the patent protection.
    17 Aug 2011, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... "Farming it out" is the Axion business model, not battery manufacture. All this work in New Castle is just a pilot line for remotely siting fabs close to manufacturers worldwide. It's what I'm impatiently waiting to find out if it's a viable model.
    17 Aug 2011, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    When we bought New Castle, the primary goal was to give the research staff a complete battery factory they could use as a prototyping facility. There's nothing in the world that can compare with the ability to make a prototype electrode assembly in the morning and put it into a prototype battery in the afternoon without having to deal with a third party that's trying to schedule his own operations. We always viewed the excess production capacity as gravy that would eventually become useful.

     

    As near as I can tell, it will take two more electrode lines and maybe $10 million in capital spending to max out the permitted capacity in New Castle. If we think in terms of 250,000 PbCs per year and 500,000 flooded batteries, the revenue potential of Axion's existing manufacturing facilities would be in the $85 million range. It's not a huge number but it's a darned good start for a plant that would have a total book value of under $20 million.

     

    Once PbC production in New Castle is up and running (assuming the PbC continues to perform like the star it seems to be) potential customers will (we hope?) start pressuring their current suppliers to cut a deal with Axion for a co-branded product. If that happens, building a captive electrode fabrication plant for an existing AGM battery plant is no great shakes because an electrode plant would have a completely different and far easier environmental regime to deal with. While I don't want to get into too much speculation about how the business deal could be structured, my guess is that Axion would bring technology, equipment and know how to the party while the manufacturing partner would bring money, management and existing battery production and distribution. The parties would split the electrode fabrication revenue on some equitable basis and the manufacturing partner would keep the battery manufacturing revenue that he started with. It should work if battery manufacturers understand that they'll be able to increase their revenues and profits by selling a better product to their existing customers from their existing plants. We won't know for sure, however, until it happens.
    17 Aug 2011, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    John,
    The two flooded lead acid lines at Axion really serve no future purpose, except to make traditional batteries, in Axion's development. What would it take in dollars and permitting to turn those into AGM lines that could produce the PbC? Do you see that as a viable option where Axion can make 900,000 PbCs a year? I hate to leave money on the table. A gross profit of 20% or more on a $240 PbC times 900,000 units is 43 Million in bottom line profit. To equal this in electrode sales would require another electrode plant with a similar 10-12 line production capacity. I have to believe that changing the two flooded LA battery lines into AGM lines is simpler and cheaper than building and equipping another electrode plant.
    17 Aug 2011, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't have any idea what a changeover would cost, but when you have a unit of production based permit like Axion does making $250 units (PbC) makes a lot more sense than making $60 units (flooded).
    17 Aug 2011, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Just and FYI, a block trade of 188,679 shares went off @ $0.53 @09:47:42 this A.M. and another 44K in two trades @ $53/$54.

     

    So, that's the majority of the volume this A.M, ~266K thus far, 10:14.

     

    I'm having trouble resisting adding at these sorts of levels.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Missed adding by a penny... grrrrrrrr
    17 Aug 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It doesn't make sense to me but willing sellers are willing sellers till they run out of stock. Then they become irrelevant.
    17 Aug 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    >John Springer ... ha ha, I got some more.
    17 Aug 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't resist and bought at $0.56
    17 Aug 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    It doesn't seem rational to me, but it appears Axion is being lumped into a group I label "struggling new battery makers" by the investment community. That's mostly Li-ion batteries, of course. So Axion moves up and down on specific news and with the whole green-renewable energy sector. Which is faltering badly with the realization that BEVs don't sell and feel-good green subsidies are not going to last much beyond the next few rounds of budget fixes. I hope :-)
    17 Aug 2011, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    It's nice seeing your core position price come down. However, I wouldn't be too perturbed if I never saw these prices again. I think Quercus is one of the last entities left selling at these prices and it causes some small holders to let some shares trickle out a bit when they see the high volume, dropping price along with the junky economy. It also keeps new buyers on the sidelines bottom feeding, thinking the stock isn't going anywhere. At this point it would be ok with me if Gelbaum was finished.
    17 Aug 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the trading price has anything to do with perceived value. It's all an issue of supply and demand and private placement investors who expected things to develop faster than they did.

     

    A boatload of shares were sold in December 2009 at $.57. Due to weird market conditions and a full year of delay associated with the need for a Gen2 line, the stock price fell to levels approximating the private placement price instead of rising. Eighteen months later Axion is just now getting ready to ramp the sales revenue many hoped for in early 2010. It looks like many if not most of the 2009 investors have decided to take their cash off the table and search elsewhere for greener pastures.

     

    Over the last 18 months most of the buyers have understood that a Gen2 line would be needed, known that testing would be a slow and painful process and generally had a better understanding of the business dynamic and likely development path. So instead of seeing a failure of expectations, the new buyers are seeing slow and steady progress that confirms their decision and makes them more comfortable instead of less comfortable.

     

    One of the toughest jobs around is managing investor expectations. Private placement investors are often unreasonable and they expect things to progress more rapidly than common sense would dictate. If anything I try to dampen expectations because I know the process always takes longer and costs more, but that's generally not a problem for the types who climb a wall of worry, bottom fish for share prices, and buy with a three to five year horizon.
    17 Aug 2011, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jakurtz: I believe Quercus still has 10,000,000 warrants, too, convertable at $0.75.
    17 Aug 2011, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    .48...believe it or not...either fish or cut bait!...still fishing...
    21 Aug 2011, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    I keep trying to figure out how I can sell off some of my other worthless stock and buy more at these prices. The question is whether it's worth it to sell the other company's stock at a 70% loss to try and pick up Axion when it's this low. Decisions, decisions, decisions.
    17 Aug 2011, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    I had HEV for awhile and finally had to swallow that pill (very hard to do) just finished selling off last week, i think there is still some kind of future there but gotta let some dust settle. I thought over a month ago if i didn't get some axpw then at .64 I would not have another chance. Who would have thought a month and a half later it sits in the mid-fifties...So who knows what will happen. Unless a catastrophe happens or Gelbaum knows something no one else does (which is possible, but the consensus seems to be he just needs liquidity for other projects) it is a pretty darn good price. At near one-year lows and the news has only improved since that low, no reason for it to be at these levels from my perspective.
    17 Aug 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz,

     

    If Gelbaum needed liquidity before think how much more he needs now due to the recent slump. The great news is that there seems to be more than enough willing buyers to take the stock from him at these prices.
    17 Aug 2011, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    decisions...decisions.... boat...who recovers 1st?
    21 Aug 2011, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Smoke em if you got em boys ....
    Couldn't resist liquidating some dogs to jump on another 5k @ .55
    It's all "long" money anyway, and I feel the odds of a multi-bag here
    are much greater than the dogs I was nursing ....
    17 Aug 2011, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Did the same for another 4K @ .54. One of my dogs found a new home as well.
    17 Aug 2011, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Finally got filled on the dang moving target practice... upped my holdings by 50% at .535... starting to become a significant holding... will have to sell something to cover, but that's not of this instablog's concern ;-)
    17 Aug 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    Somebody doesn't care about being 10% of volume today. It's sell it at whatever the market will offer.
    17 Aug 2011, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    no... they have a limit at .53... and only the big kahunas seem to be getting down to .53... I've seen a lot of trades go through at .531... and then the price pops right back up to .55 or whatever
    17 Aug 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    I must have that horse shoe then...placed a .48 in am...filled...go figure!...of course...took my hit elsewhere to do this!
    21 Aug 2011, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    NO? Check this:
    $0.5200 2,000 OBB 15:20:31
    $0.5200 2,000 OBB 15:19:30
    $0.5200 1,500 OBB 15:18:25
    $0.5200 2,000 OBB 15:18:25
    $0.5200 200 OBB 15:18:25
    $0.5100 3,800 OBB 15:16:03
    $0.5100 1,000 OBB 15:16:03
    $0.5100 700 OBB 15:16:03
    $0.5110 2,500 OBB 15:16:03
    $0.5150 2,500 OBB 15:16:01

     

    This BS will end at some point.
    17 Aug 2011, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    well... my bad... soon as I loaded that comment, the sucker went down further... sigh.

     

    can we collectively buy out the weak hands?... y'all must be making progress by now...
    17 Aug 2011, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dang! I hate being right about this one. Looks like my prediction last week of $0.50 shares may come true; trading at $0.51 right now.

     

    Just put in an order for some half buck shares. A year from now this will look like thievery if I get them.

     

    We may even touch the 52 week low of $0.47, if Special Sits and Quercus accelerate their selling off.
    17 Aug 2011, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't know about anybody else, but I feel a lot better with another 300,000 shares in strong hands and out of feeble ones.

     

    On a way OT matter, did you notice that Ener1 has cratered to $0.43 at today's close?
    17 Aug 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    Given 'all' the information supplied by the company, and the input of tech and manufacturing minded stockholders on this and other boards, who among us can see an order of size (>5000 batteries) coming within the next 12 months? NS will likely want any prospective end of year hybrid locomotive, whether yard slug or over-the-road, to be field tested for 6 months at a minimum (?). Automotive appears at least 2 years away, if it comes at all. It is a long time to wait, with all attendant internal and external risks ready to intervene. It is hard to resist what are perceived to be 'discounted' shares, but they may well get significantly cheaper yet given the well discussed dynamics at work here.
    17 Aug 2011, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    It dropped 45% yesterday I believe on these words..."Ener1 is currently in the process of determining whether the Company has sufficient liquidity to fund its operations."..Scary indeed. I do wonder if you have the number prowess to figure out what a good buy would be for a company in that position. In other words if they go through a restructuring of some sort what would the outcome be? Would they be cheaper on the other side of the restructuring?

     

    What are the possible outcomes in this situation?
    17 Aug 2011, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    .47...don't say that. Quercus has to turn off the faucet. Last week same thing happened, he dropped 500k shares onto the market at around .53 on 600k total trading day. A stock like this does not just bounce right back from stuff like that, it definitely has an effect on other sellers and buyers minds. It appears to me it is almost purposeful to keep the price down. Even on days he is dropping 10% it still showing buyers and other would be sellers the price is still dropping. Not sure who that benefits.
    17 Aug 2011, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't even try because there are too many possible outcomes and many of them are bad.
    17 Aug 2011, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    I see the Insiders are starting to sell 500,000's instead of 50,000's (early Aug, latest)..
    18 Aug 2011, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    It satisfies Querus - even at a loss.
    18 Aug 2011, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Since Quercus hasn't filed any sale reports since early August, I tend to think our seller is Special Situations which sold more shares than Quercus year-to-date but is far less visible. The nice part is once they've sold they'll be irrelevant.
    18 Aug 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Strange to think of it this way, but right now I coudn't buy a decent Swiss chocalate bar for 10 shares. But in four years I'll be able to 10 Swiss chocolate bars with 10 shares.
    18 Aug 2011, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    "logic" doesn't always come into play!
    21 Aug 2011, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    It simply is the fact that someone or some fund doesn't believe in the Axion investment story. Obviously, the sales last quarter and the Gen 2 line actually making product means little to the sellers. If I wasn't so tuned into the actions of the company because of John's blogging I would probably have sold by now because the stock price has crashed through so many arbitrary charting lines. This is considered a penny stock by most and a ten dollar stock by the long term holders.

     

    I can live with the losses for now. Want to be living large with profit later. I simply have one question. What are the risks for Axion. Financing? No. Product? Doubt it. Market Share? Not when your the only game in town. Management? They appear solid.
    So, with little risk, Why worry?
    17 Aug 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Well said! Couldn't agree more and only time will tell. Can't wait till next summers trip to PA. Maybe I'll ride my Harley from Cali.
    17 Aug 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    WTF is this?: b2i.api.edgar-online.c...
    17 Aug 2011, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    I believe that is the required prospectus for the 28 Million in shelf registration that the stockholders approved at the last shareholder meeting. 45 Million shares at 60 cents = 28 million dollars. They won't sell 45 million shares if the price is higher than 60 cents.
    17 Aug 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.
    17 Aug 2011, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It's a post-effective amendment to the registration statement for the 45 million shares that were sold in December 2009. When a company has a resale registration statement, it must file an amendment every quarter to update the prospectus included in the registration statement. It's all ordinary course of business.
    18 Aug 2011, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    I wondered. Thanks for straightening us all out. Those numbers looked awfully familiar.
    18 Aug 2011, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    JIC folks are wondering about the price action, IMO ...

     

    If you look at the price and volume running up to the Q report CC and subsequent it makes me think that there were some "momentum" traders or other such that had no understanding of what is (not) happening (yet) in the company.

     

    Report and CC are done, they all say "Where's the beef!" and proceed to sell at a small profit or loss, especially if the got in on 8/8.

     

    If there's any shorters with eyes on the stock, they may also have short-term effect as expected disappointment by some % of longs provides an excellent environment for shorters to profit on the covering buy.

     

    But based on what I've seen of short action (using only the bi-monthly reporting), they seldom get heavy enough to need more than one or two days to cover so the effect is short-lived and minimal, AFAICT, on longer time-frames.

     

    Today's volume makes me strongly suspect shorts are in today. Backing out the early block trade still leaves pretty good volume on the day.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2011, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... I'm just curious, so no offense. I've seen this short seller theory several times over the last year and anyone that follows the "Fails to Delivery Data" knows there hasn't been any to speak of. My quandary is who & what mindset would short a stock that has $.05-.10 spread and trades very low volume? I try to imagine but just can't. The block necessary to make a good risk/reward would have to be enormous and it's not a sure thing that a trader could lay hands on it.

     

    Do people really short stocks like this? Is it done naked?

     

    I'm baffled.
    17 Aug 2011, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    The data provided is so opaque, even with the recent "improvements", it's hard to nail anything down.

     

    But there is some as seen here www.otcmarkets.com/sto...

     

    The tough part is figuring who. First, market makers *must* mark as short sale anytime they sell shares *not* in their control (i.e. not on their books). So what is shown there might be just what's pending at the close of the period from sell orders they received settlement date - 3 days ago. There's just no way to tell.

     

    Second, small fry can short and might be perfectly happy with a couple hundred dollars profit in just a few days. I would be. So selling short a few 5K or 10K blocks on the way up or near the top and then cover just a few pennies lower might be attractive to some.

     

    It's also an effective hedge strategy if you hold some long positions. Sell short near the top, cover near the bottom if you want to take profits. If not, you remain "market neutral".

     

    Theoretically it is *not* done naked *except* for market makers (who are short sale rules exempted) who do it all the time.

     

    Back in 2008, I used to short a few K of CPST and cover in the same day and was happy to make a few hundred. But then my broker wanted more money in my account as I began to fit "day trader" profile, so I quit doing it.

     

    Following are the daily short sales, derived from FINRA reported OTC data for the month to date. I believe *most* are market maker sales, but I also bet *some* are not.

     

    My plan is to eventually match this sort of data against price and volume action and see if I can derive something actually useful from the data that is supposed to be bringing increased transparency to the markets. So far it's a farce - literally.

     

    I had to do some back-and-forth with FINRA for them to realize their system was broken. The part I found is fixed now.

     

    HardToLove

     

    Sorry about the alignment - SA doesn't offer much for this stuff.

     

    Date Tot. Vol. Sht Vol. w/o Exmt Sht % w/o Ex
    0801 305859 112796 112796 36.88 36.88
    0802 380281 027909 027909 07.34 07.34
    0803 382331 095361 095361 24.94 24.94
    0804 190996 044720 044720 23.41 23.41
    0805 211199 041338 041338 19.57 19.57
    0808 690560 337052 337052 48.81 48.81
    0809 101119 029416 029416 29.09 29.09
    0810 118769 050497 050497 42.52 42.52
    0811 225061 049971 049971 22.20 22.20
    0812 448979 120494 120494 26.84 26.84
    0815 169503 060734 060734 35.83 35.83
    0816 326308 079283 079283 24.30 24.30
    0817 613816 095342 095342 15.53 15.53
    17 Aug 2011, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Thanks. I still don't get it but I guess there are gamblers everywhere. I short stock more than I should, maybe a few hundred +, here and there. Most of the time it is because of company financials are out of kilter or product market turns. Then there are times the technicals on the chart just scream.

     

    Shorting has inviolate rules about risk/reward, entry points & position limits. That's what baffles me about shorting penny stock. Axion is an even bigger mystery. They have no product, no sales, no market, no financials, a small float, low volume & a spread that is near impossible to figure. Even as a day trader it makes no sense to me because there is no guarantee of getting out clean and keep expenses low.

     

    In my way of figuring it, someone would either have a grudge or an almost out-of-control gambling habit. At least in stocks you can get some of your money back and that's better than at the track.
    17 Aug 2011, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    I was always under the impression that one could not short a stock under $1. Guess I cold be wrong but the odds make no sense. Short selling volume numbers probably occur because of the problems with pink sheet or small OTC stocks. I'm not buying short selling. If someone shorted AXPW at $2.75 god bless them for being accurate. But no one is stupid eough to short a stock at $.50.
    17 Aug 2011, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    I can't prove (and don't care to argue regardless), and there are mechanical reasons that failures do occur. I suspect the following might not occur with such frequency and duration under normal circumstances though.

     

    Keep in mind that these are *rolling* totals - i.e. net at end of each day.

     

    But for your edification:

     

    HardToLove

     

    STTL|STOCK|FAILED|SALE
    DATE|SYMB|QUANT|PRICE
    0103|AXPW|008189|0.57
    0104|AXPW|066169|0.57
    0105|AXPW|000360|0.57
    0106|AXPW|006929|0.57
    0107|AXPW|018390|0.57
    0110|AXPW|000610|0.57
    0111|AXPW|000610|0.57
    0113|AXPW|004439|0.60
    0114|AXPW|000491|0.59
    0119|AXPW|002991|0.59
    0120|AXPW|003545|0.60
    0121|AXPW|014041|0.59
    0124|AXPW|045325|0.59
    0125|AXPW|040500|0.59
    0126|AXPW|040330|0.59
    0127|AXPW|040491|0.59
    0128|AXPW|042691|0.59
    0131|AXPW|060281|0.59
    0201|AXPW|065699|0.59
    0202|AXPW|066199|0.59
    0203|AXPW|000065|0.59
    0204|AXPW|000065|0.58
    0207|AXPW|000065|0.63
    0208|AXPW|003370|0.70
    0209|AXPW|142413|0.71
    0210|AXPW|021441|0.71
    0211|AXPW|009131|0.70
    0214|AXPW|009050|0.70
    0215|AXPW|000500|0.69
    0216|AXPW|003100|0.67
    0218|AXPW|000958|0.70
    0222|AXPW|000816|0.70
    0223|AXPW|000737|0.70
    0224|AXPW|000737|0.81
    0225|AXPW|000418|0.77
    0228|AXPW|052500|0.79
    0301|AXPW|003752|0.81
    0302|AXPW|018056|0.81
    0303|AXPW|004970|0.81
    0304|AXPW|044470|0.80
    0307|AXPW|074159|0.81
    0308|AXPW|135246|0.80
    0309|AXPW|131769|0.87
    0310|AXPW|113418|0.91
    0311|AXPW|338805|0.88
    0314|AXPW|276703|0.87
    0315|AXPW|217671|0.88
    0316|AXPW|188332|0.85
    0317|AXPW|183774|0.90
    0318|AXPW|157343|0.95
    0321|AXPW|122001|0.95
    0322|AXPW|204227|0.99
    0323|AXPW|260220|1.02
    0324|AXPW|308423|1.06
    0325|AXPW|273106|1.10
    0328|AXPW|283898|1.18
    0329|AXPW|076600|1.19
    0330|AXPW|089733|1.18
    0331|AXPW|088258|1.06
    0401|AXPW|126152|1.14
    0404|AXPW|261449|1.10
    0405|AXPW|033586|1.10
    0406|AXPW|079564|1.10
    0407|AXPW|009944|1.03
    0408|AXPW|001600|1.08
    0411|AXPW|029660|1.05
    0412|AXPW|040157|1.03
    0413|AXPW|011623|0.97
    0414|AXPW|008623|0.97
    0415|AXPW|067644|0.95
    0418|AXPW|004780|0.94
    0419|AXPW|013347|0.92
    0420|AXPW|088852|0.91
    0421|AXPW|181823|0.89
    0425|AXPW|333395|0.84
    0426|AXPW|425218|0.83
    0427|AXPW|516293|0.80
    0428|AXPW|555648|0.81
    0429|AXPW|608548|0.84
    0502|AXPW|667175|0.83
    0503|AXPW|729726|0.82
    0504|AXPW|396361|0.80
    0505|AXPW|402352|0.76
    0506|AXPW|457671|0.77
    0509|AXPW|464421|0.76
    0510|AXPW|460212|0.80
    0511|AXPW|462855|0.82
    0512|AXPW|498544|0.80
    0513|AXPW|526217|0.80
    0516|AXPW|550569|0.80
    0517|AXPW|129312|0.80
    0518|AXPW|132573|0.77
    0519|AXPW|128523|0.79
    0520|AXPW|129176|0.79
    0523|AXPW|000814|0.80
    0524|AXPW|000874|0.80
    0526|AXPW|000991|0.76
    0531|AXPW|000005|0.76
    0601|AXPW|007337|0.74
    0602|AXPW|001260|0.73
    0603|AXPW|001059|0.75
    0606|AXPW|003474|0.67
    0607|AXPW|002397|0.68
    0608|AXPW|001391|0.69
    0609|AXPW|335741|0.60
    0610|AXPW|291136|0.64
    0613|AXPW|931800|0.63
    0614|AXPW|1130109|0.65
    0615|AXPW|1140109|0.66
    0616|AXPW|1094884|0.66
    0617|AXPW|017924|0.66
    0620|AXPW|021582|0.66
    0621|AXPW|010971|0.64
    0622|AXPW|011444|0.68
    0623|AXPW|009324|0.63
    0624|AXPW|000442|0.65
    0627|AXPW|043705|0.66
    0628|AXPW|034249|0.63
    0629|AXPW|052612|0.65
    0630|AXPW|008754|0.66
    0701|AXPW|007744|0.64
    0705|AXPW|090238|0.72
    0706|AXPW|007744|0.73
    0707|AXPW|101076|0.72
    0708|AXPW|088513|0.70
    0711|AXPW|085967|0.69
    0712|AXPW|057184|0.66
    0713|AXPW|051290|0.69
    0714|AXPW|051850|0.66
    17 Aug 2011, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Those numbers are so hard to read and so meaningless to me that I have only one thing to say.

     

    You are Hard to love
    17 Aug 2011, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    Really. A link would have done nicely. I chart FTD data against daily volume. I was just curious as to why the short theory. I'm done.
    17 Aug 2011, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    To both of you: sorry for engaging.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2011, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Engaging is good. Thanks.
    17 Aug 2011, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love - I'm intrigued by your last data series and would love to know where you found it. A link would be appreciated.
    18 Aug 2011, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The biggest reason for fails to deliver in companies like Axion is holders who have shares in physical form (e.g. stock certificates held by a private placement purchaser) and can't get them converted into electronic form within the T+3 delivery date. The second data series does not strike me as anywhere near as interesting as the first one.
    18 Aug 2011, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    The SEC-provided one I use is zipped data for every company posted twice monthly. That's why I didn't post the link. They can be large and are not in the form I presented above.

     

    This is the most direct link.

     

    www.sec.gov/foia/docs/...

     

    *If* it would be beneficial, I'd be glad to e-mail any particular subset with some of the "cruft" removed and formatted decently (csv, Excel spreadsheet, etc). Just PM the email addy you want to use along with some date range and any other criteria and format. The utilities on my Linux boxes make most simple stuff like that easy to do.

     

    What catches my eye about the data is the continuity (~129 days out of ~15x trading days) and variability of sizes of fails. My initial thinking was that holders of certificates would be larger holders and smaller holders would have their shares in street name at the broker. Seeing a fair number of smaller fail sizes suggests either this was not correct or there is some other reason for the failures.

     

    Having not closely tracked the SEC filings I was also surprised at the number and consistency of larger sales. You had mentioned Quercus and others were doing consistent sales but I hadn't realized how consistent, if that's indicated by this data. Of course, I don't know that any of these are related to that.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2011, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    I will hate myself for asking this but Why does the data intrigue you? I'm not a good detective but love reading a good mystery.
    18 Aug 2011, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    What does "failed" mean and what is (129 days out of 15x trading days) mean? Is this data showing more institutional sales? Quite confused. I follow Gelbaum's sales on SEC but I have wondered if there are more sales similar to his by people who do not have to report an SEC.
    18 Aug 2011, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz, I can answer part of it at least.

     

    When a transaction is made, shares are to be delivered to the buyer (e.g placed in the receiving account) 3 trading days after the transaction date, commonly referenced as "T+3". If the transfer is not completed on that date there is a "fails to deliver".

     

    In and of itself, it is not a cause of concern for occasional failures. There are, as JP has pointed out in the past, possible delays due to mechanical transmission/conversion of hardcopy certificates and such. There are also possible delays between a brokerage and the market maker(s), possible infrequent mechanical failures (computer crash at one of the end points), etc.

     

    But there are thresholds, that if met or exceeded, are signals of problems - maybe such as naked shorting - that cause a listing to appear on a special list, the RegSHOThreshold List, such as displayed here.

     

    www.nasdaqtrader.com/T...

     

    Not every equity on the list is *necessarily* a problem. But an *extended* stay on the list should raise a lot of red flags to our ersatz "regulators".

     

    Something to keep in mind is that there are lots of exceptions to all this. Certain equities that aren't required to report, extended times available to close a fails before shorting by an offender in that stock is prohibited, etc.

     

    Adding to the problem is that *none* of the tools provide enough information and *none* are timely. So us retail investors are essentially out in the cold.

     

    As to institutional data, there is no bias either way. The best we could do is guess based on timing, volume, price ... SEC filings. The data represents both institutional and retail transactions that failed to make delivery in the standard time.

     

    AFAIU, the reporting requirements to the SEC are based on percentage of outstanding held. If that is correct, there could be large holders that are not required to report. I do suspect that there are some as you suggest. But that's only because I think it would be unusual if there were none.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2011, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL,
    Great explanation of an area in which I have no experience. I simply send money when the broker calls and says: "send more money"
    18 Aug 2011, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    I gotta get me a new (broker's) hat (Bullwinkle J. Moose) ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2011, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Thank you. That does help.
    18 Aug 2011, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Jun 31,2011 Mar 31,2011 Dec 31, 2010
    Raw materials 1,475,106 1,339,902 1,053,825
    Work in process 1,300,441 1,052,850 470,219
    Finished goods 522,073 38,115 123,516

     

    Product Sales 1,699,377 1,035,442

     

    The amount of goods in inventory, especially work in process and finished goods, potentially indicate an increase in product sales for next quarter. Keeps some cash coming in for short term.
    Cheers
    17 Aug 2011, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    >jlyleluce: thanks for the numbers. That is Axion you are showing us, right? :-)
    17 Aug 2011, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    I am assuming that the inventory increase is all PbC orientated for a couple of reasons.
    1) The basic lead acid inventory figures would not be increasing since the antique car battery business is pretty stagnate..
    2) The flooded lead acid battery contract did not include Axion having to purchase materials.
    The only thing left to increase is the PbC numbers. I suspect that the new gen 2 line is producing electrodes and Axion is in the "want to buy a PbC for testing" business.
    18 Aug 2011, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Actually the flooded contract will impact payables, receivables and inventories, even though the net as the materials pass through the system is the equivalent of a cost plus contract. I do think PbCs for testing will be a significant source of cash, but they shouldn't have a huge impact on inventories unless Axion is building batteries for a big customer (NS) at a financial statement date.
    18 Aug 2011, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, all costs for raw materials and inventory were carried on the customer's books. No?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    There was a question in the Q1 conference call about the increases in payables and receivables that Chuck Trego said were related to the flooded battery contract. About the only way to keep those things off the books is to do some sort of consignment tolling where the entire parts inventory is consigned by the purchaser and all related inventories are kept segregated. It would be a major pain from both an operational and accounting perspective, and it would also reduce revenues to the labor and overhead component of the products instead of the full market value.
    18 Aug 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if the latest SEC filing. which I didn't understand until Futurist straightened me out, will spook the herd even more tomorrow? I'm sure that most of them do not have the benefits of TG's comment from Mayascribe's annual meeting blog that a capital raise would not occur until there was a price spike to a market cap of 75M. That would be a price of .87 or better with 85503302 shares currently outstanding.

     

    If they didn't listen to the conference call or read the 10Q closely they wouldn't know about the current max18M share board authorization either.
    17 Aug 2011, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    >Bang,

     

    Careful - that's $18M, not shares. Ditto for the second tranche of $10M.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2011, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    Here's another random theory:
    Given the market knows what we know... as soon as the price rises to .90 or $1, Axion will raise capital and the price will fall by 20%.
    Now, if everybody thinks this is true, everybody will sell as soon the stock raises above .80, because that's where you'll be able to buy back after the raise. With the effect, of course, the price will never raise above .80.
    11 Sep 2011, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    I have been thinking about how to take advantage of the possible dip. I am not good at hitting the top or bottom so that 20% would most likely be closer to 10% (if I am lucky). I also run the risk of there NOT being a pullback and leaving a void while I chase the stock to get back in.

     

    What I am thinking about is setting some more cash aside to put to work on the pullback. That way I can pick my exit point (assuming the stock continues to rise).

     

    I would love to hear how the smart people will handle this dip...
    12 Sep 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Tim,

     

    With the Rodman & Renshaw conference coming tomorrow, and expecting the white paper to be the centerpiece of the presentation, I expect a move up to begin no later that 2-3 days later.

     

    My TA of the charts suggest we will be turning up from here.

     

    This predicated on that it moved lower from a recent peak on reducing volume and hit near the target I as expecting ~$0.62.

     

    When things behave as I expect and then I see price ride atop the 50 day SMA the last three days (including today so far), and price remaining above recent support points, and .... well you get the idea.

     

    My thinking is that for the very near-term, we are as low as it will get, plus/minus a penny or two.

     

    The pop from the Rodman & Renshaw conference will see some sellers come in, those that bought to trade in preparation for the conference, but they *could* be quickly exhausted since JP indicates that the R&R conference is a more significant conference than Wedbush was.

     

    If you are investing, I don't think worrying about a penny or two at this level is worthwhile.

     

    Keep in mind that I don't always get it right.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    HTL: was hoping you would chime in but I am not following your comments. I thought we were talking about the impending dip when Axion raises capital? oh, are you saying this "pop" may be high enough lead into Axion selling?
    12 Sep 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Tom Granville's made it pretty clear that he's not planning on raising money until after something happens to boost the price. Since the average price paid by the old guard is well over $1, I don't think anybody in a position of influence wants to see another down round.

     

    To really understand the dynamic that drives management decisions you need to understand Axion's financing history. Footnote No. 6 to Axion's audited financial statements tracks it all back to day one and shows who paid what for their stock and when.

     

    www.sec.gov/Archives/e...

     

    See pages 41 through 46.
    12 Sep 2011, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Following up on what JP said, where *I* certainly am not authorative, the raising of capital is not a concern IMO because TG has stated that it *will* be at a higher share price.

     

    *If* that is true, I can not imagine a scenario where PPS drops back into these ranges. Reasons?

     

    I expect it will be *after* NSC places a larger order. A move up from the R & R conference would be, IMO, insufficient for AXPW to issue *now* when their most recent statements indicate that NSC is on track to place an order in the fourth quarter (I'm betting Nov.) which would *add* to what ever higher sustained price range would be obtained from the R&R conference. And TG stated that they have enough COH to go into next year.

     

    *If* my thinking is correct, knowing the first tranche of shares is limited to a dollar amount of ~$18M, I just can't see enough disgruntlement from long-term shareholders that I think buy into JPs take on "accretive dilution" (which is really *not* dilutive at all) jumping to the sell side to take profits.

     

    Momentum players, day traders, "weak hands", ... certainly will sell.

     

    But it will be short-lived and minimal in effect IMO. Normal trading will resume quickly with little long-term price movement.

     

    My very humble, uninformed thoughts,
    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2011, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I agree, all things considered the price of AXPW right now is a definite buy however, the last week has sent my 5 star dogs a yelping and I am having a hard time pushing the sell button even though AXPW's growth in the next two months may dwarf theirs.

     

    JP: Right. At some later date, following a significant event, with the price of the stock around $1 (perhaps more) we can expect Axion to begin raising funds which could be followed by a decrease in stock price which is the dip that f-kru and I were contemplating.

     

    The hope then is that the price will be UP prior to the orders coming in and the need to expand...
    12 Sep 2011, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2271) | Send Message
     
    John, I do hope T.G. has a few ideas up his sleeve for the PPS but I haven't seen any public statements about doing (or not doing) an offering at our current sub .70 price levels. Based on cash levels, I assume an offering must happen by mid 2012, whether Mr. Market accurately reflects AXPW's value by then or not, unless a major order is forthcoming from NS or another unnamed big boy.

     

    "Tom Granville's made it pretty clear that he's not planning on raising money until after something happens to boost the price."
    13 Sep 2011, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I think you might want to go back and re-read Maya's first concentrator report on the money raising issue. It's pretty clear that Tom Granville sees some events coming over the next six months that he thinks will lift the stock price. I believe a higher price is already a foregone conclusion based on supply and demand dynamics alone. When you combine likely events with likely supply and demand dynamics, I expect a fun fall.
    13 Sep 2011, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    Wasn't able to edit in time. Assuming a 20% discount it would take 25.7M shares at .70 to raise 18M. (20% discount from .87 is roughly 70 cents.) If it were a 25% discount the price would be discounted from .87 to .65 roughly and it would require 27.5M shares to raise 18M. All of this doesn't consider private placement fees, or other forms of cost of raising capital.
    17 Aug 2011, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New Axion Concentrator now available for the same price of a share of HEV in about a month or so. Or a 1000 shares!

     

    Don't miss the deversion animation!

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    17 Aug 2011, 10:47 PM Reply Like
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