Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
Axion Power Concentrator 9: Beginning Sept. 7 2011 171 comments
Sep 7, 2011 10:56 AM
It appears the days of Axion with a $0.5x are behind us. Congratulations to all who had the guts to buy and hold the bottom of the barrel priced Axion shares.
The below link takes us to John Petersen's " My Favorite Charting Method."
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Last comment from the previous Concentrator from John Petersen (a double billing we have!)
The link to my Instablog graphs is:
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FWIW the first hour of trading volume today (363.400 shares) is up more than 50% over yesterday (226,400 shares). Yesterday's second hour was the big one because it included some pretty big blocks, but it looks like we may have another interesting day.
Second hour slowed way down and we're now at about 40% of yesterday's rate - 410,000 shares as opposed to 1,013,000. The price does seem to be pretty solid though, which is always a good sign.
Ahem! Standing in for my daughter, who no longer lives at home with me, she would indignatly point out that she can drive both the 6-speed manual in my Corvette and the manuals in her first car (KIA - great little car long ago) and her BMW 3-series.
One hour in an empty parking lot with me instructing and I could see she was a "natural".
Her current vehicles are automatics, but she still enjoys the control of the manul with a clutch. That will likely not be in her future much as she and her husband are expecting their first child in November.
I thought I would raise some eyebrows with that ladies comment. I have three daughters and I am sure they will NOT need a push button clutch. However, I am sure i WILL be needing shots of something that starts with Jame- and ends with -Son nightly when that times comes around.
DRich & jakutz: This model Packard sat in my old man's driveway for a couple of years. A beauty with push button transmission, independent shocks that smoothed out the corners, electric windows (I believe), a rear fold down arm rest, which was "my seat," and one powerful engine. Take a peak!
Yeah, I guess the Ford Fiesta that is going to be getting that push button clutch will need more than just a wide stripe trim running down its full-length to compete with that beauty.
Most of the auto-shift transmissions in class 8 trucks have a clutch but no pedal. The computer shifts the gears based on speed and throttle position. What does that say for the truck drivers that prefer them (ladies?)...
I've got to admit that I never learned to drive a manual transmission. When I took driver's ED in school they didn't offer to teach you on a manual so the only way you would learn is if your family had one. It's really become a lost skill here in the US, which is another reason why I questioned a while back whether stop-start would be available on automatics. Looks like they are going to try and introduce many different options to try and find ways to get the mpg ratings up, while working around all of us who never learned how to drive with a clutch.
IIRC, one of the biggies (Ford?) has a new 7-speed(?) which delivers both better mpg and performance (drag strip) results than could be obtained by a professional driver using manual (5 or 6 speed?) transmission.
Hard to happen sooner or later as the state of the art in control electronics, fluids and clutches advanced.
And if the CVT (Continuously Variable Transmission) continues to evolve to improve on its unique set of problems, the disparity should continue to grow.
Amen Mayascribe on the strong possibility of .5X behind us. I'm averaged at $1.00 and at .42 I just said NO to selling any. I'm a long way from out of the woods, but I'm no longer in a dungeon. I had no intention of selling unless it got truly ridiculous. Like .30, God forbid.
I manage another account averaged at .73. At .42 they were down $3200 on a $7500 investment. At .68 they are only down $500 and change. Only true believers in Axion's future (or fools) stand up to these kind of numbers.
I'm a stock newbie (1 year +), but I've had the help of a great friend with mucho experience when times have been particularly rough. Quercus's latest 850K registration was particularly demoralizing to me, but he and JP pointed out they would soon be gone and have little impact. That was at around .52 and I feared we were going back into the .4x's again.
Bang: For me I knew we were nearing the bottom because when I cost average into a stock it almost always seems that the lowest price I buy the least amount. In this case my lowest purchase shares of Axion were $0.50, and was the least amount of shares I ever added in one buy (2000 shares).
We should have a "Mayascribe's Getting Timid But Still Buying Indicator."
Timid Maya takes the cards off the table when the winds buffeting the riverboat reach tropical storm force instead of waiting for Hurricane force like some of the more aggressive gamblers. (Like I have any room to talk)
I like our chances, its as simple as that. The macro economy would tighten a tyrannosaur's spinctures, but in this modern age that's a "buy" signal!
This is the rare stock where my lowball price target came home to roost ($.69 at one point) and cost me some money, but I still like the stock, and if my $.56 shares end up being near the bottom of an upward spike, I'll be happy about it. I have been picking up some $.6x shares recently to add to them, too...
My portfolio has contracted from 2 pages to about 2/3 of a page on my printouts, but I have added AXPW back when others were cashed out.
It's hard to add to a full+ position in Axion when I've had a couple of swings at HP under 23, UPL @31, XIDE @4.6 and RIG below 52. Early August got some PRE-C near 21. Not to talk about other stocks here, but those prices felt like bargains, and I took it as providence reminding me not to put all my eggs in 1 basket.
(ZBB) is up nicely on news of a sale into the data center backup power arena. Computer switching and data centers seem to only increase in number and capacity. And power needs.
Someday ZBB just might be able to make a profit. I live in hope ;-)
I really like the way ZBB has now manufactured its way into South Korea and China without any financial commitment. It has sold its technology edge for future profits. It is a risk but so is not expanding. I like the approach by management. It is consistent and it is in line with its productive capability. Now it still could be wrong, but for a small Wisconsin company I like their approach. But like Axion, I really like their product.
(AXPW): Volume for the day ended at 710.8K, roughly 50% of yesterday's volume. Opened +1 penny ($0.66) and closed down a penny from that at $0.65, which was flat with yesterday.
The concerning part is that 7.6% of the volume (~54.3K) occurred in the last 16 minutes and took us from $0.675 down to close at $0.651.
Weakening into the close on noticeable volume suggests to me that some (semi-day?) traders accounted for *some* buying pressure yesterday and exited with $ in hand at EOD when they saw that we could not push through $0.68 (remember that I *thought* this might be a *weak* resistance point - may still work out that way - follow-on will tell us).
Here's my thinking ATM. The folks that are on-board with the importance of the white paper and the coming R&R presentation already made their move yesterday or prior. Likely medium-to-long term traders or genuine investors were the majority. But I'm thinking there's also a substantial percentage that are momentum players when I combine yesterday's and today's behavior.
If that's the case, momentum players will hold sway the next day or two and if we don't see substantial additional move up, we're likely to see selling pressure as these momentum folks rake their profits and move on to the next opportunity.
In that case, I expect $0.62 or so in the next couple of days.
IMO, an excellent entry or add range for the longer-term folks and/or folks that believe a trade around the conference results is a good risk.
What the pattern looks like *if* we see that range (and if we don't) might give further clues. If we don't continue upward I would like to see continued reducing volume with a high and tight flag (best case) forming or mildly sloping flag down to the ~$0.62 level if we go that way. Both are continuation patterns telling us the move up is likely to resume.
BTW, I know most folks here are longer-term investors. If this sort of minutiae is less useful here, please let me know - I'll take no offense at all. I just habitually operate in "brain dump" mode, too often without forethought.
HTL - Today's candlestick at the close was a "shooting star" which is a high probability bearish candle. I think we are in a .62-,69 range until we get a true breakout signal above .73 I doubt if it will really start running until some event occurs that really signals future growth, like a NS freight car outside Axion's gate picking up a load of batteries.
I wish I was a fly on the wall of Tom G's office. I wonder who they are getting phone calls from these days?
BW, thanks. I had overlooked that one. I got so wrapped up in the patterns (and I use OHLC bars) and then integrating what's not on the charts (thinking about traders, conferences, white papers, ...) that I often end up coming back and seeing I either overlooked or forgot to mention something important.
And I normally mentally convert to candlestick as needed and catch those things.
That's one of the reasons I value the "aggregate effort" so highly - there's just too much for one to be able to remember every consideration every time, but "in aggregate" we can cover all the bases.
HTL...without any technical process my feeling was that after it knocked against .68 a couple of times, people who bought in at .5x decided they would take some profit since a leg down would be expected tomorrow. Plus, that trip to .40 scared some as well and before the bell rang many decided the 13% pop was all they were going to get in the near term. My feeling is we will be pushing up into .70 by the end of the week.
Lots of folks have abilities I don't possess. I've never been real strong on "sensing" things. So a guy like me, who has a technical background, naturally gravitates towards what served him well in the past.
It's a long slog for me, but I've noticed (I *think*) improvement in my performance as I've learned more about both the TA stuff and about "fundamentals" of stuff and things really new to me, like economics, politics, market behavior, ... all of which are still "an enigma in a box in ..." for me in many ways.
My tenacity is all that keeps me from running screaming into the night as when I started in late '07 I thought just picking good companies was all that was needed to do well.
I learned a hard few lessons subsequent to that, "obliviously". =>8-O
You, Maya, Hillbilly and others have added tremendously to John's articles. So, thank you from a mostly lurker.
If you'll all indulge some bloviating, my philosophy is:
It's seems dangerous to follow "strict" technical analysis unless you're an experienced trader.
It seems even more dangerous to follow strict fundamental analysis because in a way it's just technical analysis of the current and future value of a company. That's a lot harder. How many of us can read and understand the earnings and cash flow statements, and predict with great certainty what the market for a product will be like in one, let alone five years. (Fortunately, we have John in this case.)
The best recommendation I have heard is to use fundamental analysis to pick a company to invest in ("Axion is SO undervalued!") and technical analysis to choose a point to get in. ("I should buy now, it just bounced off a support.").
Have a plan before you buy for when you will sell. This is the hardest part for me.
Most of all:
Love your wife, your children and your dog, not your stock.
I guess I'll settle for loving my new Brazilian Select Cherry hardwood floors and my Christmas cactus plant.
Excellent bloviating, Renzo.
HTL can attest that I'm very much a technical trader. We've emailed, discussed, charted, chatted, disagreed and agreed more times than I can count.
But, I'm also a corporate story investor. And Axion's story I do indeed love. There's conflict and passion. Growing pains and challenges. There's frustration and patience.
What's really fun is that we're barely past the prologue, with a compelling future ahead of us. The day Axion zips past 5 bucks, I'll be lovin' that, too.
A little late to the board, but Yeah, what Renzo said .... HT Love & Bang, please continue the TA talk, as a nubie I am learning a lot from you both and am fascinated with learning to read & understand the "gauges" of the market.
Excellent comments and touches on why I have difficulty progressing as I thought I might be able. It didn't take long for me to decided that TA was just one of the tools needed. Being the most "quantitative" in many respects, it was quicker to get the basics in hand. When I try to ken the intricacies of money flow, market behavior, politics, what goes on "behind the scenes", manipulation, ... I really found a mass of worms in a pool of mud.
It's the reason I believe I will never cease learning. And it also means I *may* be well-suited for this as I'm most satisfied when learning new stuff constantly and having to integrate seemingly-disparate stuff (as I like to say, my mind is a strong associative processor - but not yet in all these areas).
Holy Crap! Before I unloaded those two trading blocks, I totaled more than Rochdale and that other outfit. I gotta go on a diet - for my size (minnow) I'm *way* overweight!
And I'm only a smidge away from equaling them still.
Sort of destroys my image of "institutional".
Heh, makes me almost want to convert my remaining trading block to an investment so I rank right up there with (what I thought was) "The Big Boys"! ;-))
HTL: I'd be willing to bet that most everyone participating or following this column has WAY more shares of Axion than Rochdale or the other 10,000 share holder. I'm surprised they are listed.
I really love the technical side of the equation. I traded many stocks multiple times as we headed up from the bottom of 2008-2009 into the present.
I sold my $3.00 Bank of America at $6. Good for me. Bad for me. I sold my $2.00 Ford at $4.00 Good for me. Very Bad for me. I sold My $3.00 Exide at $5.50. I sold my $4.50 Exide at $9.00
Stock charts mean nothing. They don't tell you when a high is high enough. They don't tell you when low won't go lower. They are simply charts of the past and have very little to do with the events of the future.
I have traded on them. Made money. Lost money.
But nothing compares to buying low in a disruptive technology that is manufacturing product in a future market worth multi-Billions of product.
I have no idea when to sell my large Axion holdings. I expect many to sell when it hit hits $5 per share. John has said he hopes for a top of $10 per share. All I know is that these answers will come after orders are put in. Additional electrode lines are put in. Additional Capitol is put in.
Futurist: We all have our differences of opinion. When I was aggressively day trading, I relied on many indicators that enhanced my decisions to buy or sell. But that was intraday, or a couple days or weeks long trading. I loved pouring over the charts. Still do.
It was a lot of fun, and a lot of hard work; almost every waking moment six days a week, and about four hours on Sunday, too. And I will admit, there were several times I got clobbered.
But as I realized I was competing against HFTs, and that the markets were not soaring, I pulled back from doing sometimes as many as 150 trades in a month. With the recent intraday swings of 200-300 points, and overnight futures swinging wildly, it's become ever harder to keep track.
I've also heard many pro traders on TV state this market is really difficult to trade.
I will say, though, that today I put in a trade on Cemex (CX)--a cement outfit. I recognized a bottom was being put in last week from indicators such as Williams%R, MACD and RSI, plus a few others. That combined with Obama's jobs speech tomorrow makes this trade nearly a no-brainer.
Since I have little dry powder in my gamer account--it's nearly all in with Axion--I'm not able to make the kinds and numbers of trades I've in the past made.
Guess the result? I've a tad more free time these days.
>All ... What would Axion's business conditions look like to cause a split? Share price @ $x.xx and a tight float? I'm just curious because I don't really understand the causes for a split. So I thought I'd ask instead of wondering.
Futurist, the time to sell Axion Power is when there is no more growth of market share, which is probably far beyond the 5-year horizon. For sure JP has more insight on this (I remember he talked about writing an article of smart sell). For now I am happy to see myself as a VC and what worry me most is unable to load up enough Axion shares before the inflection point showing up from nowhere.
DRich: One ot the reasons Axion "may" choose to do a reverse split would be to get up-listed from OTC to say AMEX.
AMEX, I believe has a minimum share price of $1.00.
Typically, reverse splits, say for 3 shares you end up with 1, at three times the value, don't go well.
Citi did this a while back and the stock is down a lot (due to market conditions and the US suing the banks).
A classic case near and dear to me was when Ener1 did a reverse split, I believe 8:1, and the stock took off from there, all while John thought I was a knothead for owning the stock in the first place!
Another cause for a reverse split is to stay listed on an exchange. Beacon Power (BCOND) did this a while back, and they may have to do it again, because their stock has once again sunk under a buck. I was looking at that stock today, and with this in mind, I did not buy any, even though the technicals right now are showing a screaming buy.
I should add that it would likely be extremely unpopular with shareholders were Axion to propose a reverse split. There are only 80M shares out there right now. Cutting the shares by half or more would create even more volatility in share pricing than already exists.
Maya, I can't believe they even bother to mention an institutional holder that only has 10,000 shares. Heck, I've got more than that in my IRA and I'm nobody!! :-)
>Mayascribe ... Thanks. I can understand that a reverse split would not make current shareholders happy. I'd have to do a lot of buying to get back to my current share count :) I'd vote no.
What got me thinking was a friend that traded in the early 90's told me I'd know Axion had arrived when you see it splitting. I understand that a split is warranted when price gets too high and/or volume drops so a lower price brings in smaller investors. This makes sense, in particular, if the company has stock on the shelf it wants to sell.
The other reason is that price is out of kilter with the sector peer group. That's the one that has me stumped. I guess I'm trying to figure out just who Axion would be a peer of. The business product and the business model are quite unique. Would Li-on manufacturers be the peer group? The other LA manufacturers? Ultrabattery is the closest thing in the market place and I don't see them as much competition. I could be completely wrong and peers would niche market competitors like Maxwell, Beacon & Capstone.
Once Axion is up and growing, the common wisdom says that a stock's price is 50% determined by its sector performance. The big boys trade in baskets. I guess I'm looking for a yard stick to measure by to forecast by. I apologize for not making myself clear or maybe this is just a mental exercise in stupid on my part. I do get confused easily.
Went through a similar situation with ALTI where they did a 4:1 reverse split to keep themselves on the NASDAQ, since you're required to stay over $1.00/share there too. The stock went up a little just after the reverse and then tanked when they started the process of selling a majority share of the company to Cannon, a Chinese investment firm, for a price that was a full dollar less than what the reverse was for. Needless to say the stock tanked again and is now only slowly recovering. Last time I willing agree to a reverse split.
DRich: That's the good kind of splitting! I've owned Johnson Controls through a few splits. Usually, in equal market conditions, the stock will rise against peer stocks.
As for a stock being worth $100, when their peers are worth $30, it does indeed behoove the shareholders to have a split occur.
Perhaps the most famous recently, was Berkshire Hathaway splitting hugely, so that commoners like me can afford their ~ $70 per pricing.
Your friend was very correct. The day Axion does a split will be a day my heirs enjoy greatly. Axion will indeed have arrived by then.
I wouldn't worry about any splitting for years to come.
I believe a reverse-split is a highly unlikely event. One could have built into in the late 2009 restructuring that paved the way for the 2009 placement. One could have been included in the 2010 annual meeting. One could have been included in this years annual meeting. There have been three opportunities and the board hasn't bitten on the idea yet. I'm convinced the board believes a reverse split is not necessary to get to the minimum bid listing requirement ($2 for Amex and $4 for Nasdaq). This is one of those times when inaction speaks volumes.
>Mayascribe ... "I wouldn't worry about any splitting for years to come." That's very disappointing. I'd like to see Axion split like Intel did in the 70's & 80's. If Axion is going to follow the business model, I'd love it to follow the split schedule, too. Every year or two for 10 years would be nice.
Still, anyone got a clue who Axion would consider a member of it's peer group?
Standard 3 is the easiest Amex entry point and it only requires a $2 bid price.
Axion's current market cap is $55.6 million, its equity is $15.1 million and the market value of the float is over $15 million. The only standard it doesn't meet is the $2 minimum bid.
Nasdaq is very horsey about it's minimum bid requirement and insists on 90 days at or above with no temporary retreats. Amex is far simpler to live with and can be satisfied in as little as 30 days.
Given my druthers I'd take Nasdaq over Amex, but I certainly see no harm in doing a two-step process to get there – start with the Amex and upgrade when you can.
Maxwell is a competitor. Which makes it a peer. But I think of any micro-cap energy storage company anywhere in the lifecycle between commercial prototype and profitability as an Axion peer.
BCON and ZBB come to mind. They have different products and are pursuing different niches but they are all still relative newcomers and all stand to benefit from JP's 'energy storage mega-trend' caused by permanently high energy prices.
An Axion peer is any junior energy storage company.
Talking of selling AXPW is way early. I know that. I was simply pointing out that Technical analysis, for a company this small, probably isn't much help. I commend anyone who can make money using it. I have left way to much money on the table, in the past, when trying to sell into a technical top. But it is an infectious hobby.
>Mayascribe ... I live for the day that Axion can get listed on an exchange. My preference would be the NASDAQ. It would make life easier but doesn't need to be done via a reverse split. I can't see the need. It would look, to me, like an act of desperation and this company has a product that desperation will come from trying to meet demand. A risk I see down the road for Axion is expanding too rapidly and getting over-extended on production but I'm no manager.
"I'm convinced the board believes a reverse split is not necessary to get to the minimum bid listing requirement ($2 for Amex and $4 for Nasdaq). This is one of those times when inaction speaks volumes. "
Mr. Petersen, I'm confused by the assertion of yours that you need a stock price of over $4 to be listed on the Nasdaq? ALTI is currently listed on the Nasdaq and their share price is $1.20. When they were down to $0.64 the company asked for a 4:1 reverse split from the shareholders because Nasdaq rules required them to get back above $1.00 within 90 days or lose their listing. Even after the reverse split we were still only in the $2-3 dollar range. So is it that you need to be above $4 for the initial listing, because you only need to stay above $1 to stay listed?
Nasdaq has two sets of requirements. For companies that want to upgrade to a Nasdaq listing from the OTCBB, the rules require a minimum $4 bid price for 90 consecutive trading days. The alternative initial listing standards are set forth on page 1 of this document.
Once a company is listed on the Nasdaq, it has to maintain a minimum bid price of $1 or it will be subject to delisting. The continued listing standards are set forth on page 5.
In other words, it's much harder to get a Nasdaq listing than it is to keep one.
I suppose companies like ACPW got there listing on Nasdaq way back during their IPO in early 2000. Why didn't Axion do it in the late 90's when they were well above $4 for a year or two? Other requirements get in the way like stockholders equity requirements?
Companies like ACPW and ALTI went directly to Nasdaq in connection with their IPOs. Since Axion went public through a reverse merger at the end of 2003, it didn't have that luxury. Since then, the initial listing requirements have been a big headache because when the stock price was high the financial statements were weak and when the financial statements were strong the stock price was weak.
Don't I also recall you saying somewhere else that it's almost advantageous that Axion is an OTC.BB stock right now, instead of being listed on one of the major exchanges, because the cost for legal and auditing to keep one in compliance for those exchanges can often run a company at least $500,000/year? Seems a no brainer for an R&D company that doesn't like to spend money it doesn't have to.
Once a company is registered with the SEC and files annual and quarterly reports under the Exchange Act, the compliance costs are basically the same regardless of where its stock trades. An exchange listing is the one goal I had for Axion eight years ago that's eluded me. Even if it won't be a feather in my professional cap, I still want to see that goal accomplished at the earliest possible date.
Earnings to be released prior to market open this morning. This conference call should answer questions about the China expansion agreement and the acceptance of the product into the marketplace.
I'm onsite at a client today and can't call into this meeting but would be very interested in getting the highlights and/or personal reactions if anyone else is able to dial in.
We may someday need separate concentrators for some of our other favorites: zbb, bcon, xide.
(AXPW): Nice 85K block trade went @ $0.625 @ 11:44:43. A couple of ~30K trades earlier in $0.66 range and most everything else so far has been smaller retail sized.
So far looks to be heading towards lower volume as it re-traces, as I hoped.
HTL, You definitely called that one with your TA yesterday. Keep it coming, I really like seeing the updates on volume and trades, and I am learning a lot. I suppose a lot of people are going to need to see it climb above the .6x range and stay there for a while before they really "believe" this is the true start of its ascent to $1+
> Jakurtz: I've heard that there's a bunch of folks (including some institutions?) that won't touch a stock below some certain price level regardless.
I've been thinking about the catalysts that might appear down the road and the effect on price. Foregoing all we've discussed, I'm making an assumption that we will be well above $1 by 2nd quarter of 2012.
Another catalyst then becomes *possible* that I've not heard discussed - inclusion in one of the Russell indexes. Now, there's not $1 requirement that I know of, but another stock I'm following, (GWMGF) had that benefit last June. It went from a close of $0.61 on 6/16 to a close of $1.04 on 7/26. It has since dropped back to its more appropriate price range.
I had observed this behavior before with (CPST) and was able to alert my cohorts as soon as we knew it was being *considered* for inclusion. I took my profits just 4 pennies off that close (the hihg intra-day was $1.06 so I missed a bit).
I wanted to mention this as I believe the catalysts between now and that June period will put AXPW in the running for inclusion and a likely inclusion when the final list is published.
The bump that would be *almost* certain is due to many funds that track the Russell indexes rebalancing to match the new composition.
I know it's a bit early to be thinking of that, but this is one of the things that TA of charts could not yet possibly include that I think is a real possibility *if* Axion progresses as we all think it might!
As to "You definitely called that one with your TA yesterday", just remember, "One Aw Shit wipes out 1000 Atta Boys"! Right now I'm *waaaaayyyy* behind in "Atta Boys"! :-((
If you're looking at GWMGF, you might consider as an alternative Alkane Resources (ALK on ASX, ANLKY or ALKEF on OTC). They have heavy and light rare earths, but more importantly they have large zirconium and niobium resources as well as gold. They are within about two years of production. Here's their most recent investor presentation:(www.alkane.com.au/pres...)
Don't want to get any further off track on Maya's forum.
> Renzo: I track them all. TB's REE Concentrators are where I hang for those. If you need a link, just holler. A *very* good place to be for REEs.
My problem ATM is dry powder. I have to rotate out of something to rotate into something else. This is a side-effect of my commitment to (AXPW), (CPST), mostly, and being "po' folk".
I've been in and out of GWM and Lynas and taken profits on both at various times. Right now I'm just in very lightly in GWM to track it and looking for another entry point for a small Lynas position again.
I've found the big movers in REE much more difficult to do TA on as they are so very volatile with lots of gap moves and subject not only to sentiment but also currency fluctuations, the "What's the Hype on MCP and lockbox Status", etc.
So I'm really cautious with them until I see they have some sustained trend going on.
Thanks for mentioning though! It's that willingness to help another that I value on these "boards".
TB: Your purchase of Beacon Power may be a timely move. Not sure if you know this or not, but BCON is also doing a presentation next Tuesday at the Rodman Renshall Conference.
Intraday stats: Average buy volume is 4659, average sell volume is 3306. Buy volume is skewed because of an 85,000 share buy that went through at 11:44:43 at $0.625.
Hard: Excellent call yesterday about the downward move today.
Trip: Very interesting read. I'd also love to know more about how lasers can be used to purify water.
SWAG: Since laser headlights would reduce the stress on a battery, I'm not sure what effect it would have to make the PbC a better choice. What I'd like to know about this BMW concept car is if it will be stop/start, and of course what battery will be used in the car.
This news piece about JCI ending their partnership with Saft is much more interesting because of what it doesn't say.
"The company (JCI) had stated that it wanted the partnership to have more flexibility and [access to alternative technologies}." Saft,apparently, didn't want to. Hence the divorce.
I've been lurking here for a couple of weeks. I have shares of Axion. Today, I'll contribute something. ~maxkil~
Northfolk Southern realeased there 2011 Sustainibility Report an hour ago, below is a link. In the report page 18, they talk about NS 999 (the battery powered switcher). It quotes, "Currently, we are working with industry partners on a second-generation lead-carbon battery system. We have applied for a patent on the technology developed to manage the pioneering battery system." It continues, "In addition, we are working on a battery-powered road locomotive that would be paired with a diesel-electric locomotive to supply tractive power on line of road."
Does this mean that the road locomotive will have two engines? The main engine is battery powered and other other generates power to re-charge the batter powered one?
For JP - "Start stop is everywhere, it's everywhere" Check page 8 (16 in the Adobe reader box at the top on my system), "Deploying idle-reduction technologies, such as automatic engine start-stop systems and auxiliary power units."
In a prior place someone asked about multiple engines?
Page 17 (25 in the Adobe box) talks about multiple engines distributed throughout the train controlled by the lead engine.
Probably lots more good stuff, but I'll have to finish tomorrow.
This is wonderful stuff - now I have something to read. The paragraph you quoted seems to confirm my hunch that the road locomotive will be 100% battery powered and paired with one or more diesel electric locomotives to make the train a hybrid.
maxkilmachina: Welcome to the Axion Concentrator. Excellent catch! Thanks.
Here's a little more direct way to the PDF (on page 26 is where max's quote comes from, which by the way tops the list of most "promising alternatives.")
"We have applied for a patent on the technology developed to manage the pioneering battery system"
I had wondered about how Axion and NS were working closely together and if Axion would be able to offer this technology to other railroads, or if NS paid for and "owned" this technology? Now that NS has applied for a patent on what it sounds like is the Battery Management System, how does that affect Axion's prospects of selling to other railroads?
User, I don't think NS's BMS patent will affect Axion selling to other rail. What NS owns is a customized BMS which is specificly desgined (by Axion) for its locomotive or mover system based on its technical requirements and PbC battery. This won't prevent Axion from designing customized BMSs for other rails, because they won't be the same BMS as NS's. Actually this is good for Axion - designing BMS will provide extra service revenue on top of sales of product, and, usually customized design work has higher margin (at least, it is the case in aerospace industry).
I was thinking it actually improves the situation for Axion, NSC and the other railroads. Keeping in mind that the RRs don't really "compete" since owned tracks have little overlap. They cooperate in big ways, switching loads among each other using each others facilities to some degree, ...
So, KSU decides NSC had a good idea. But "jeez we don't want to spend a year-and-a-half building a customized BMS".
So Axion says "Why don't you see if NSC will license theirs for your use? It's table driven code that allows customization because they needed to be able to adapt it to the different requirements they had. And they'd probably add any additional customization for a very reasonable fee. And the designers and coders that wrote the software would be the same ones doing some work for you! And ..."
You can see where my thoughts lead: win-win-win situation. KSU gets some really useful stuff really quickly and relatively cheaply, NSC recoups some of their costs (and probably more as other customers appear), Axion sells lots of batteries and consulting services to help KSU "get it right the first time".
>HTL ... NSC applying for a patent is most likely the integration require by the various train systems. Just like NRE holds the patent for the management system for gensets. I would imagine the pack BMS that runs the Axion battery pack is probably Axion's. There is a lot more to this electric train than batteries. Now I have no way of knowing exactly which part of the many systems is the NSC patent. The text "technology developed to manage the pioneering battery system" is a little vague.
That's a great thing for NSC because it drives upgrade work the Altoona works from every road on the continent. I can think of some other business opportunities through licensing NSC could derive.
Nice Find Maxkil,, I see it as good news and bad news,,first its actually great that they are developing their relationship with axion,,this will turn into nice revs b4 too long. The bad,,and its not real bad,,but , it seems that they have developed some critical technology on the side that will make it slightly tougher for other rr companies to do what they are doing.. well, time will tell.
From the perspective of Axion stockholders who were worrying that the road locomotive might get cancelled, this the most soothing read around. It clearly says that as of September 2011 they're happy with the battery and moving forward.
We can be happy as well to note what it *doesn't* say; unlike the 2010 report, it no longer says, "we are also studying the potential of lithium-ion and nickel metal hydride battery systems." (of course, the skeptic might say that they generally give less details on the project in this report anyways, so the omission is not as telling as it would be otherwise.)
The Yard locomotive was a no-brainer. Lots of start / stop activity for a yard locomotive. But the road loco was an entirely different matter. Maybe it would be able to save substantial fuel, but maybe not. I am very happy to see this go forward. With the number of road locomotives out there ,Axion has a lot of batteries to build to make the fleet fuel efficient. But NS is not applying for patents on a system that has not proven itself in exhaustive testing.
The road locomotive is a curious piece since they don't stop much (they make us stop) and the rails are as flat as the terrain permits. In fact, they go to great lengths to make those tracks as level as possible. Very encouraging to think they still expect gains...
While the railroads try to keep their grades as flat as possible and their speeds as steady as possible, even a foot of altitude loss or an mph of deceleration represents an immense amount of energy when you're talking about millions of pounds. Today they regulate speed by using recuperative braking technology to generate electricity that is blown off as heat by massive resistor banks. The only hardware they need to add to the existing equipment is a BMS and a megawatt or two of batteries.
Take a look at that page in the PDF on distributed generation that I mentioned. They are so sophisticated and aware of the dynamics of kinetic energy losses that they estimate a 1 - 3 percent fuel savings from side loads reduction/distribution from interspersing the engines throughout the length of the train. With the amount of fuel they use annually, even those small percentages equate to very large savings.
So even on really flat terrain, every little bend, no matter how small, has the potential to increase fuel usage unless ways are found to mitigate the energy losses. They've found another way.
The key thing with the rail applications is that they're truly a paying proposition. A typical switcher burns something on the order of 50,000 gallons of diesel per year. If batteries to replace the fuel cost $350,000 including $100,000 for BMS and electronics, the payback periods look pretty good before you even get into the emissions reduction benefits in rail yards. For road engines, the annual fuel consumption is over 100,000 gallons. If you can take a typical four or six locomotive consist and replace one of them with a battery locomotive that uses no fuel but provides the required pulling power when it's needed, the payback is similarly attractive.
Northfolk Southern and GE are having a sustainibility symposium today. With NS and GE having a sustainibility collaboration, what are the odds that GE knows about NS 999, the battery switcher (rhetorical). Would it be too speculative that NS and GE will commercialize NS 999 like the "Green Goat" by Rail Power?
GE is a dominant player in the new locomotive market and they're obviously taking it seriously by building a plant in New York to manufacture the Zebra battery for use in future products. The market Axion is focused on is existing locomotive retrofits rather than new locomotive fabrication. There should be plenty of room for everybody given the size of the table.
The best I can suggest is to check either AXPW web sire under investments and/or R&R site as the date approaches to see if any new links to a webcast appear.
I saw a recent news blurb where a company officer with the new GE battery (ZEBRA) group claims they have their first order for the new batteries. He also said the big new plant is suppose to go online in 3 months. No mention of WHO the customer is or what size the order.
Zebra is a very good chemistry and has a lot of large-scale uses. I visited the FZ Sonick plant in Stabio last winter and was impressed with both the product and the process. I'm working with a private company that is trying to simplify manufacturing and reduce per cell components from 20 to about five. There's no telling if they'll be funded or successful, but there are some very smart people working on the technology.
A quote from one of Pike Research's press releases about Hybrid locomotives; "Most of this capacity will be in lead acid and advanced lead acid batteries, with a portion of the market utilizing sodium metal halide and lithium ion batteries."
Note that Pike thinks MOST of the batteries will be Lead Acid and Advanced LA. That's the Axion PbC as the ALA battery, I think.
The ability to handle large amounts of POWER is what strongly favors the PbC, compared most other battery technologies.
They predict 500MWh battery consumption just for new hybrids. Retrofits are not mentioned in the short blurb I read. Sales price of 1MWh of PbC is around $350k just for the batteries. Racking and control electronics not included ;-) That totals to $175 million for batteries, if the PbC gets all of the market. $35 million for 20% of market. Nice numbers, even spread out over 10 years.
I think someone commented on Mr. Petersen's last seeking alpha article on Axion that parts of the conference were being webcasted but that Axion's presentation was not on the list. Don't know if it's true or not, but that is what was posted.
brishwain: Excellent! Welcome to the Axion Concentrator.
Back in a previous Concentrator, did you read the section where a bunch of us, including myself, listed questions to be asked during Axion's last quarterly conference call?
Unfortunately, I chose to listen into another conference call that day, at the same time. So a lot of those questions went unanswered. If you would like, I can go back into the archive, fetch and consolidate those questions and send them to you via a Seeking Alpha email.
Please let me know if I can help in anyway.
If not, have a safe and successful trip, and I will be looking forward to learning your observations and anything new not yet discussed in these Axion Concentrators.
brishwain: we are envious. Please pickup the (AXPW) presentation info and get a LARGE memory card for your phone and post the YouTube video link here... <smile>
I canoed and camped along the potomac river on a few occasions,, this is the Norfolk to Pittsburgh and beyond line.(10-12 trains per night Many nights I remember hearing the sound of train brakes due to tight curves. In such a run it makes lots of sense to have regen braking on all engines with the juice going into the battery (pbc) engine which would get used heavily on the starts,,or,,maybe they just use the battery engine for braking and starting. I'm not sure if they can connect all engines as first stated. Never thought those drunkun camping trips would contribute any useful info.
Is the military looking into stop/start/micro/mild/... braking? I would imagine being able to move short distances on quiet battery power could provide some tactical advantage.
I know I'd much rather be sitting in front of a rack of PbC batteries in my APC than lithium batteries, advanced or not. : )
Im sure the military, more than anyone needs to ensure reliability before taking on such a program. First, do no harm?
Hey all, I'm glad I found this instablog. I've read a bunch of John's articles (Thanks! BTW) and read through all of these comments and the annual meeting recap.
In a previous concentrator there was a statement that people posting here probably had millions of the shares of AXPW. That is great and all but I have a different question for many of you.
Instead of wondering how many shares you have, my question to you is what % of your investing portfolio is your in AXPW? Second follow up is what % of your net worth is tied up in investments. The reason I ask is that I have done work for a guy who owns 50+ MCD and therefore dabbles in the stock market. He owns lots of shares of lots of promising tech but no stock is more than 2% of his investments and considerably less as a % of his net worth. I have recently established a small starter position and hope to add to it over the next few months but its about 10% of my investment portfolio which is basically all my net worth (less my house). For me its more about convinction in my investments that a scattered approach.
For me (AXPW) is about a sailboat. The goal is a healthy down payment but I would gladly re-name the vessel if it paid for the whole thing ($10). The question is will it come in by the time I am ready to go sailing...
>mrholty: Axion stock is about 3% of my stock portfolio. That may increase as their prospects move from potential to actual. I'm retired and have most of my portfolio in high dividend stocks for the income, which pays the bills. Axion is my "build a new house" stock. Not necessary, but sure would be nice ;-)
I'm actually embarrassed to say how much of my net worth is in AXPW. I think that the rest of you will think that I'm a reckless knucklehead. And you may be right.
AXPW is well north of 10% of my net worth.
In my defense, I'm mid-career, single, contribute about 18% of my salary to my 401k and have a relatively steady, somewhat decent job.
And I never intended to own this much but when shares went on sale I couldn't resist: I have about 40k shares purchased at or below 60 cents (my average price is around 75 cents).
Oh, and I have a pretty high risk tolerance and think that diversification is a scam perpetrated by the investment advisor industry on an ignorant public.
DMcH: you typed: "(I) think that diversification is a scam perpetrated by the investment advisor industry on an ignorant public."
Actually, the high diversity mutual fund is the biggest scam. The managers collect a percentage for producing lower than market index returns, calculated after their percentage!
I think the poor return numbers show that most "investment advisers" have a monetary agenda they don't advertise. Why else point people towards those funds?
I am also embarrassed to say that i am in pretty much the exact same boat as you. I have a ways to go before retirement as well. I believe if one can find just a couple stocks at a great price that allow you to sleep well at night...go for it. I just try not to tell too many people.
Not that there are not times that I have doubt. coming up with all kinds of black swan scenarios that will send the stock further south. But when I calm down and think rationally, the risk/reward of Axion right now is about as good as it possibly gets.
I'll sell you mine (3yrs old and 10 months old)!!! :-) Oh, wait. The wife probably won't let me do that. Plus they are kind of cute. O.K., I'll just let you all pay to send them through college...how about that? ;-)
For me, Axion is the other half of my retirement accounts. My employer pays a good sum into my 403b, so I can't put that money into anything buy money markets and other managed funds. Axion is my "risk" IRA. My goal is to at least double what I have in the 403b before I retire. So for me, Axion is almost all of my "risk" but just a stepping stone towards my future. Granted, I hope it's a great future!
Tim: I actually was a starting pitcher, a long time ago. Broke my university's record for most wins. Played on what was once written up in Sporting News as the best amatuer team in the country, that went 54-8 in the now defunct PennDel league here in Philly.
Once declined a "handshake" offer from the Baltimore Orioles, perhaps my most stupid mistake I ever made in my life. But the offer was only a tad more a month than was my car payment.
Maya, You never know where those little opportunities would have led, but you do know it most likely would not not have led to where you are now. Which is a pretty fun place, writing a book in the evenings and trading stock during the day.
That answer is right here on Seeking Alpha; last year I threw a double nickle B-day party in Copan, Honduras...for all those who've helped me during my many trips down there.
Wrote about it in QC.
Next party I'm throwing in Honduras, if attendance justifies, will be the "Ending Of The World Fiesta, 12/21/12."
Hopefully by then, Axion will aid in paying for it.
So, John, when the price of Axion stock reaches $10/share, are you going to fly the top 100 commenters on your articles to your castle for an afternoon brunch?
I'll have iced tea, instead of champagne, with my caviar, please ;-)
Say, if Axion stock goes that high I can afford my own plane ticket!
Not me. I can't touch the money until I'm at least 59. Maya, you'll just have to have another party 14 years later. That is assuming there is a 14 years later! ;-)
the market had been "flooded" with Chinese imports..
Imagine the future for AXPW when start-stop technology becomes compulsive like airbags, (we are not far from this point...) and there is no Chinese company having this technology...
In Virgil's Aeneid Laocoön, a priest of Troy, reportedly cautioned his countrymen "Do not trust the horse, Trojans. Whatever it is, I fear the Greeks even when they bring gifts." I've come to feel the same way with Chinese bearing contracts.
You make a good point, TGG: government subsidizing and then removing those subsidies combined with Chinese flooding of a market can be disastrous for investors.
Axion is in a much better position in that government is not subsidizing it but, rather, imposing regulations requiring stop/start - these regs cost the government nothing and are extremely unlikely to ever be removed.
Also, given the patent protection and the natural difficulty of reverse engineering the PbC, Axion is also extremely unlikely to ever to see its market flooded by cheap Chinese knock-offs.
Yet another positive market dynamic for the good guys!
Yep. I was already on-board with that. But I didn't want to consider it too much here. Chinese wages are on the rise ATM and there might not be much benefit to having any manufactured there.
If there is a benefit, I would hope that Axion's advantages would far outweigh whatever pressures the Chinese might bring to the table, giving advantage to Axion.
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Axion Power Concentrator 9: Beginning Sept. 7 2011 171 comments
The below link takes us to John Petersen's " My Favorite Charting Method."
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The link to my Instablog graphs is:
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FWIW the first hour of trading volume today (363.400 shares) is up more than 50% over yesterday (226,400 shares). Yesterday's second hour was the big one because it included some pretty big blocks, but it looks like we may have another interesting day.
seekingalpha.com/insta...
seekingalpha.com/insta...
HardToLove
seekingalpha.com/insta...
HardToLove
online.wsj.com/article...
One hour in an empty parking lot with me instructing and I could see she was a "natural".
Her current vehicles are automatics, but she still enjoys the control of the manul with a clutch. That will likely not be in her future much as she and her husband are expecting their first child in November.
HardToLove
www.hubcapcafe.com/ocs...
Hard to happen sooner or later as the state of the art in control electronics, fluids and clutches advanced.
And if the CVT (Continuously Variable Transmission) continues to evolve to improve on its unique set of problems, the disparity should continue to grow.
HardToLove
online.wsj.com/article...
I manage another account averaged at .73. At .42 they were down $3200 on a $7500 investment. At .68 they are only down $500 and change. Only true believers in Axion's future (or fools) stand up to these kind of numbers.
I'm a stock newbie (1 year +), but I've had the help of a great friend with mucho experience when times have been particularly rough. Quercus's latest 850K registration was particularly demoralizing to me, but he and JP pointed out they would soon be gone and have little impact. That was at around .52 and I feared we were going back into the .4x's again.
We should have a "Mayascribe's Getting Timid But Still Buying Indicator."
This is the rare stock where my lowball price target came home to roost ($.69 at one point) and cost me some money, but I still like the stock, and if my $.56 shares end up being near the bottom of an upward spike, I'll be happy about it. I have been picking up some $.6x shares recently to add to them, too...
My portfolio has contracted from 2 pages to about 2/3 of a page on my printouts, but I have added AXPW back when others were cashed out.
In for the long haul from here.
Someday ZBB just might be able to make a profit. I live in hope ;-)
The concerning part is that 7.6% of the volume (~54.3K) occurred in the last 16 minutes and took us from $0.675 down to close at $0.651.
Weakening into the close on noticeable volume suggests to me that some (semi-day?) traders accounted for *some* buying pressure yesterday and exited with $ in hand at EOD when they saw that we could not push through $0.68 (remember that I *thought* this might be a *weak* resistance point - may still work out that way - follow-on will tell us).
Here's my thinking ATM. The folks that are on-board with the importance of the white paper and the coming R&R presentation already made their move yesterday or prior. Likely medium-to-long term traders or genuine investors were the majority. But I'm thinking there's also a substantial percentage that are momentum players when I combine yesterday's and today's behavior.
If that's the case, momentum players will hold sway the next day or two and if we don't see substantial additional move up, we're likely to see selling pressure as these momentum folks rake their profits and move on to the next opportunity.
In that case, I expect $0.62 or so in the next couple of days.
IMO, an excellent entry or add range for the longer-term folks and/or folks that believe a trade around the conference results is a good risk.
What the pattern looks like *if* we see that range (and if we don't) might give further clues. If we don't continue upward I would like to see continued reducing volume with a high and tight flag (best case) forming or mildly sloping flag down to the ~$0.62 level if we go that way. Both are continuation patterns telling us the move up is likely to resume.
BTW, I know most folks here are longer-term investors. If this sort of minutiae is less useful here, please let me know - I'll take no offense at all. I just habitually operate in "brain dump" mode, too often without forethought.
HardToLove
####
Axion made a couple of Hot Stocks lists yesterday/today.
Investors' Live (scroll to the bottom of the page):
www.investorslive.com/...
Day Trading Stock Blog (AXPW #18)
daytradingstockblog.bl...
Please continue. Enjoy reading your comments/analysis.
How'd you know I'm a sucker for a <snicker> bar"?
HardToLove
I wish I was a fly on the wall of Tom G's office. I wonder who they are getting phone calls from these days?
And I normally mentally convert to candlestick as needed and catch those things.
That's one of the reasons I value the "aggregate effort" so highly - there's just too much for one to be able to remember every consideration every time, but "in aggregate" we can cover all the bases.
Thanks again for the reminder.
HardToLove
D
It's a long slog for me, but I've noticed (I *think*) improvement in my performance as I've learned more about both the TA stuff and about "fundamentals" of stuff and things really new to me, like economics, politics, market behavior, ... all of which are still "an enigma in a box in ..." for me in many ways.
My tenacity is all that keeps me from running screaming into the night as when I started in late '07 I thought just picking good companies was all that was needed to do well.
I learned a hard few lessons subsequent to that, "obliviously". =>8-O
HardToLove
You, Maya, Hillbilly and others have added tremendously to John's articles. So, thank you from a mostly lurker.
If you'll all indulge some bloviating, my philosophy is:
It's seems dangerous to follow "strict" technical analysis unless you're an experienced trader.
It seems even more dangerous to follow strict fundamental analysis because in a way it's just technical analysis of the current and future value of a company. That's a lot harder. How many of us can read and understand the earnings and cash flow statements, and predict with great certainty what the market for a product will be like in one, let alone five years. (Fortunately, we have John in this case.)
The best recommendation I have heard is to use fundamental analysis to pick a company to invest in ("Axion is SO undervalued!") and technical analysis to choose a point to get in. ("I should buy now, it just bounced off a support.").
Have a plan before you buy for when you will sell. This is the hardest part for me.
Most of all:
Love your wife, your children and your dog, not your stock.
I guess I'll settle for loving my new Brazilian Select Cherry hardwood floors and my Christmas cactus plant.
Excellent bloviating, Renzo.
HTL can attest that I'm very much a technical trader. We've emailed, discussed, charted, chatted, disagreed and agreed more times than I can count.
But, I'm also a corporate story investor. And Axion's story I do indeed love. There's conflict and passion. Growing pains and challenges. There's frustration and patience.
What's really fun is that we're barely past the prologue, with a compelling future ahead of us. The day Axion zips past 5 bucks, I'll be lovin' that, too.
Yeah, what Renzo said ....
HT Love & Bang, please continue the TA talk, as a nubie
I am learning a lot from you both and am fascinated with
learning to read & understand the "gauges" of the market.
It's the reason I believe I will never cease learning. And it also means I *may* be well-suited for this as I'm most satisfied when learning new stuff constantly and having to integrate seemingly-disparate stuff (as I like to say, my mind is a strong associative processor - but not yet in all these areas).
HardToLove
Can I borrow yours? I seem to have trouble forgetting even the little failures, much less the "biggies".
It can be aggravating. I know I'm supposed to learn from them and move forward, but those negative items keeping rearing their ugly little heads!
HardToLove
finance.yahoo.com/q/mh...
John: I'm trying to find BlackRock's holdings. I can't on Yahoo! Finance.
And I'm only a smidge away from equaling them still.
Sort of destroys my image of "institutional".
Heh, makes me almost want to convert my remaining trading block to an investment so I rank right up there with (what I thought was) "The Big Boys"! ;-))
HardToLove
I still want to now what happened to BlackRock.
investors.morningstar....
I sold my $3.00 Bank of America at $6. Good for me. Bad for me.
I sold my $2.00 Ford at $4.00
Good for me. Very Bad for me.
I sold My $3.00 Exide at $5.50.
I sold my $4.50 Exide at $9.00
Stock charts mean nothing. They don't tell you when a high is high enough.
They don't tell you when low won't go lower.
They are simply charts of the past and have very little to do with the events of the future.
I have traded on them. Made money. Lost money.
But nothing compares to buying low in a disruptive technology that is manufacturing product in a future market worth multi-Billions of product.
I have no idea when to sell my large Axion holdings. I expect many to sell when it hit hits $5 per share. John has said he hopes for a top of $10 per share. All I know is that these answers will come after orders are put in. Additional electrode lines are put in. Additional Capitol is put in.
Until then. I'm standing pat.
It was a lot of fun, and a lot of hard work; almost every waking moment six days a week, and about four hours on Sunday, too. And I will admit, there were several times I got clobbered.
But as I realized I was competing against HFTs, and that the markets were not soaring, I pulled back from doing sometimes as many as 150 trades in a month. With the recent intraday swings of 200-300 points, and overnight futures swinging wildly, it's become ever harder to keep track.
I've also heard many pro traders on TV state this market is really difficult to trade.
I will say, though, that today I put in a trade on Cemex (CX)--a cement outfit. I recognized a bottom was being put in last week from indicators such as Williams%R, MACD and RSI, plus a few others. That combined with Obama's jobs speech tomorrow makes this trade nearly a no-brainer.
Since I have little dry powder in my gamer account--it's nearly all in with Axion--I'm not able to make the kinds and numbers of trades I've in the past made.
Guess the result? I've a tad more free time these days.
For now I am happy to see myself as a VC and what worry me most is unable to load up enough Axion shares before the inflection point showing up from nowhere.
AMEX, I believe has a minimum share price of $1.00.
Typically, reverse splits, say for 3 shares you end up with 1, at three times the value, don't go well.
Citi did this a while back and the stock is down a lot (due to market conditions and the US suing the banks).
A classic case near and dear to me was when Ener1 did a reverse split, I believe 8:1, and the stock took off from there, all while John thought I was a knothead for owning the stock in the first place!
Another cause for a reverse split is to stay listed on an exchange. Beacon Power (BCOND) did this a while back, and they may have to do it again, because their stock has once again sunk under a buck. I was looking at that stock today, and with this in mind, I did not buy any, even though the technicals right now are showing a screaming buy.
Hope this helps.
I can't believe they even bother to mention an institutional holder that only has 10,000 shares. Heck, I've got more than that in my IRA and I'm nobody!! :-)
What got me thinking was a friend that traded in the early 90's told me I'd know Axion had arrived when you see it splitting. I understand that a split is warranted when price gets too high and/or volume drops so a lower price brings in smaller investors. This makes sense, in particular, if the company has stock on the shelf it wants to sell.
The other reason is that price is out of kilter with the sector peer group. That's the one that has me stumped. I guess I'm trying to figure out just who Axion would be a peer of. The business product and the business model are quite unique. Would Li-on manufacturers be the peer group? The other LA manufacturers? Ultrabattery is the closest thing in the market place and I don't see them as much competition. I could be completely wrong and peers would niche market competitors like Maxwell, Beacon & Capstone.
Once Axion is up and growing, the common wisdom says that a stock's price is 50% determined by its sector performance. The big boys trade in baskets. I guess I'm looking for a yard stick to measure by to forecast by. I apologize for not making myself clear or maybe this is just a mental exercise in stupid on my part. I do get confused easily.
Went through a similar situation with ALTI where they did a 4:1 reverse split to keep themselves on the NASDAQ, since you're required to stay over $1.00/share there too. The stock went up a little just after the reverse and then tanked when they started the process of selling a majority share of the company to Cannon, a Chinese investment firm, for a price that was a full dollar less than what the reverse was for. Needless to say the stock tanked again and is now only slowly recovering. Last time I willing agree to a reverse split.
As for a stock being worth $100, when their peers are worth $30, it does indeed behoove the shareholders to have a split occur.
Perhaps the most famous recently, was Berkshire Hathaway splitting hugely, so that commoners like me can afford their ~ $70 per pricing.
Your friend was very correct. The day Axion does a split will be a day my heirs enjoy greatly. Axion will indeed have arrived by then.
I wouldn't worry about any splitting for years to come.
www.sec.gov/Archives/e...
Still, anyone got a clue who Axion would consider a member of it's peer group?
They seem to have done a fine job of positioning themselves as unique and carrying some of the highest valuation multiples in the sector.
www.ehow.com/list_5904...
DRich: Thanks heaps for asking a question that launched me on an information quest.
Axion's current market cap is $55.6 million, its equity is $15.1 million and the market value of the float is over $15 million. The only standard it doesn't meet is the $2 minimum bid.
Nasdaq is very horsey about it's minimum bid requirement and insists on 90 days at or above with no temporary retreats. Amex is far simpler to live with and can be satisfied in as little as 30 days.
Given my druthers I'd take Nasdaq over Amex, but I certainly see no harm in doing a two-step process to get there – start with the Amex and upgrade when you can.
BCON and ZBB come to mind. They have different products and are pursuing different niches but they are all still relative newcomers and all stand to benefit from JP's 'energy storage mega-trend' caused by permanently high energy prices.
An Axion peer is any junior energy storage company.
D
Talking of selling AXPW is way early. I know that. I was simply pointing out that Technical analysis, for a company this small, probably isn't much help. I commend anyone who can make money using it. I have left way to much money on the table, in the past, when trying to sell into a technical top. But it is an infectious hobby.
Mr. Petersen,
I'm confused by the assertion of yours that you need a stock price of over $4 to be listed on the Nasdaq? ALTI is currently listed on the Nasdaq and their share price is $1.20. When they were down to $0.64 the company asked for a 4:1 reverse split from the shareholders because Nasdaq rules required them to get back above $1.00 within 90 days or lose their listing. Even after the reverse split we were still only in the $2-3 dollar range. So is it that you need to be above $4 for the initial listing, because you only need to stay above $1 to stay listed?
www.nasdaq.com/about/n...
Once a company is listed on the Nasdaq, it has to maintain a minimum bid price of $1 or it will be subject to delisting. The continued listing standards are set forth on page 5.
In other words, it's much harder to get a Nasdaq listing than it is to keep one.
Don't I also recall you saying somewhere else that it's almost advantageous that Axion is an OTC.BB stock right now, instead of being listed on one of the major exchanges, because the cost for legal and auditing to keep one in compliance for those exchanges can often run a company at least $500,000/year? Seems a no brainer for an R&D company that doesn't like to spend money it doesn't have to.
finance.yahoo.com/news...
Earnings to be released prior to market open this morning. This conference call should answer questions about the China expansion agreement and the acceptance of the product into the marketplace.
We may someday need separate concentrators for some of our other favorites: zbb, bcon, xide.
D
If it's in your portfolio on SA, they e-mail you a link if you've signed up for such.
HardToLove
So far looks to be heading towards lower volume as it re-traces, as I hoped.
HardToLove
You definitely called that one with your TA yesterday. Keep it coming, I really like seeing the updates on volume and trades, and I am learning a lot. I suppose a lot of people are going to need to see it climb above the .6x range and stay there for a while before they really "believe" this is the true start of its ascent to $1+
I've been thinking about the catalysts that might appear down the road and the effect on price. Foregoing all we've discussed, I'm making an assumption that we will be well above $1 by 2nd quarter of 2012.
Another catalyst then becomes *possible* that I've not heard discussed - inclusion in one of the Russell indexes. Now, there's not $1 requirement that I know of, but another stock I'm following, (GWMGF) had that benefit last June. It went from a close of $0.61 on 6/16 to a close of $1.04 on 7/26. It has since dropped back to its more appropriate price range.
I had observed this behavior before with (CPST) and was able to alert my cohorts as soon as we knew it was being *considered* for inclusion. I took my profits just 4 pennies off that close (the hihg intra-day was $1.06 so I missed a bit).
I wanted to mention this as I believe the catalysts between now and that June period will put AXPW in the running for inclusion and a likely inclusion when the final list is published.
The bump that would be *almost* certain is due to many funds that track the Russell indexes rebalancing to match the new composition.
I know it's a bit early to be thinking of that, but this is one of the things that TA of charts could not yet possibly include that I think is a real possibility *if* Axion progresses as we all think it might!
As to "You definitely called that one with your TA yesterday", just remember, "One Aw Shit wipes out 1000 Atta Boys"! Right now I'm *waaaaayyyy* behind in "Atta Boys"! :-((
HardToLove
If you're looking at GWMGF, you might consider as an alternative Alkane Resources (ALK on ASX, ANLKY or ALKEF on OTC). They have heavy and light rare earths, but more importantly they have large zirconium and niobium resources as well as gold. They are within about two years of production. Here's their most recent investor presentation:(www.alkane.com.au/pres...)
Don't want to get any further off track on Maya's forum.
Renzo
My problem ATM is dry powder. I have to rotate out of something to rotate into something else. This is a side-effect of my commitment to (AXPW), (CPST), mostly, and being "po' folk".
I've been in and out of GWM and Lynas and taken profits on both at various times. Right now I'm just in very lightly in GWM to track it and looking for another entry point for a small Lynas position again.
I've found the big movers in REE much more difficult to do TA on as they are so very volatile with lots of gap moves and subject not only to sentiment but also currency fluctuations, the "What's the Hype on MCP and lockbox Status", etc.
So I'm really cautious with them until I see they have some sustained trend going on.
Thanks for mentioning though! It's that willingness to help another that I value on these "boards".
HardToLove
Lurking for more low $.6x shares for AXPW...
Hard: Excellent call yesterday about the downward move today.
With AXPW's linkup to BMW, I wonder if upgrading the battery might have someting to do with "laser headlights"?
SWAG: Since laser headlights would reduce the stress on a battery, I'm not sure what effect it would have to make the PbC a better choice. What I'd like to know about this BMW concept car is if it will be stop/start, and of course what battery will be used in the car.
www.bmw-i.com/en_ww/bm...
A way cool set of wheels, but definitely not an economy car.
"The company (JCI) had stated that it wanted the partnership to have more flexibility and [access to alternative technologies}."
Saft,apparently, didn't want to. Hence the divorce.
tinyurl.com/3hflpj7
which is: finance.yahoo.com/news...
Northfolk Southern realeased there 2011 Sustainibility Report an hour ago, below is a link. In the report page 18, they talk about NS 999 (the battery powered switcher). It quotes, "Currently, we are working with industry partners on a second-generation lead-carbon battery system. We have applied for a patent on the technology developed to manage the pioneering battery system." It continues, "In addition, we are working on a battery-powered road locomotive that would be paired with a diesel-electric locomotive to supply tractive power on line of road."
nssustainability.com/
Does this mean that the road locomotive will have two engines? The main engine is battery powered and other other generates power to re-charge the batter powered one?
For JP - "Start stop is everywhere, it's everywhere" Check page 8 (16 in the Adobe reader box at the top on my system), "Deploying idle-reduction technologies, such as automatic engine start-stop systems and auxiliary power units."
In a prior place someone asked about multiple engines?
Page 17 (25 in the Adobe box) talks about multiple engines distributed throughout the train controlled by the lead engine.
Probably lots more good stuff, but I'll have to finish tomorrow.
HardToLove
Any updates about NS and Axion? Is all well with testing as far as you can see? Hope to see you back in the concentrator.
Here's a little more direct way to the PDF (on page 26 is where max's quote comes from, which by the way tops the list of most "promising alternatives.")
nssustainability.com/i...
"We have applied for a patent on the technology developed to manage the pioneering battery system"
I had wondered about how Axion and NS were working closely together and if Axion would be able to offer this technology to other railroads, or if NS paid for and "owned" this technology? Now that NS has applied for a patent on what it sounds like is the Battery Management System, how does that affect Axion's prospects of selling to other railroads?
Actually this is good for Axion - designing BMS will provide extra service revenue on top of sales of product, and, usually customized design work has higher margin (at least, it is the case in aerospace industry).
So, KSU decides NSC had a good idea. But "jeez we don't want to spend a year-and-a-half building a customized BMS".
So Axion says "Why don't you see if NSC will license theirs for your use? It's table driven code that allows customization because they needed to be able to adapt it to the different requirements they had. And they'd probably add any additional customization for a very reasonable fee. And the designers and coders that wrote the software would be the same ones doing some work for you! And ..."
You can see where my thoughts lead: win-win-win situation. KSU gets some really useful stuff really quickly and relatively cheaply, NSC recoups some of their costs (and probably more as other customers appear), Axion sells lots of batteries and consulting services to help KSU "get it right the first time".
Everybody gets "Fat, dumb and happy".
Thoughts?
HardToLove
That's a great thing for NSC because it drives upgrade work the Altoona works from every road on the continent. I can think of some other business opportunities through licensing NSC could derive.
Should we hold a memorial for his loss?
HardToLove
Take a look at that page in the PDF on distributed generation that I mentioned. They are so sophisticated and aware of the dynamics of kinetic energy losses that they estimate a 1 - 3 percent fuel savings from side loads reduction/distribution from interspersing the engines throughout the length of the train. With the amount of fuel they use annually, even those small percentages equate to very large savings.
So even on really flat terrain, every little bend, no matter how small, has the potential to increase fuel usage unless ways are found to mitigate the energy losses. They've found another way.
HardToLove
GE Hybrid Locomotive PDF
www.getransportation.c...
GE Hybrid Locomotive page
www.getransportation.c...
NS and GE symposium news:
www.nscorp.com/nscport...
www.prnewswire.com/new...
The best I can suggest is to check either AXPW web sire under investments and/or R&R site as the date approaches to see if any new links to a webcast appear.
HardToLove
Pikeresearch on Hybrid Locomotive:
www.pikeresearch.com/r...
Note that Pike thinks MOST of the batteries will be Lead Acid and Advanced LA. That's the Axion PbC as the ALA battery, I think.
The ability to handle large amounts of POWER is what strongly favors the PbC, compared most other battery technologies.
They predict 500MWh battery consumption just for new hybrids. Retrofits are not mentioned in the short blurb I read.
Sales price of 1MWh of PbC is around $350k just for the batteries. Racking and control electronics not included ;-)
That totals to $175 million for batteries, if the PbC gets all of the market. $35 million for 20% of market. Nice numbers, even spread out over 10 years.
www.rodmanandrenshaw.c...
Back in a previous Concentrator, did you read the section where a bunch of us, including myself, listed questions to be asked during Axion's last quarterly conference call?
Unfortunately, I chose to listen into another conference call that day, at the same time. So a lot of those questions went unanswered. If you would like, I can go back into the archive, fetch and consolidate those questions and send them to you via a Seeking Alpha email.
Please let me know if I can help in anyway.
If not, have a safe and successful trip, and I will be looking forward to learning your observations and anything new not yet discussed in these Axion Concentrators.
Never thought those drunkun camping trips would contribute any useful info.
Background about medium/heavy truck applications, hybrid through BEV.
I know I'd much rather be sitting in front of a rack of PbC batteries in my APC than lithium batteries, advanced or not. : )
Im sure the military, more than anyone needs to ensure reliability before taking on such a program. First, do no harm?
In a previous concentrator there was a statement that people posting here probably had millions of the shares of AXPW. That is great and all but I have a different question for many of you.
Instead of wondering how many shares you have, my question to you is what % of your investing portfolio is your in AXPW? Second follow up is what % of your net worth is tied up in investments. The reason I ask is that I have done work for a guy who owns 50+ MCD and therefore dabbles in the stock market. He owns lots of shares of lots of promising tech but no stock is more than 2% of his investments and considerably less as a % of his net worth. I have recently established a small starter position and hope to add to it over the next few months but its about 10% of my investment portfolio which is basically all my net worth (less my house). For me its more about convinction in my investments that a scattered approach.
AXPW is well north of 10% of my net worth.
In my defense, I'm mid-career, single, contribute about 18% of my salary to my 401k and have a relatively steady, somewhat decent job.
And I never intended to own this much but when shares went on sale I couldn't resist: I have about 40k shares purchased at or below 60 cents (my average price is around 75 cents).
Oh, and I have a pretty high risk tolerance and think that diversification is a scam perpetrated by the investment advisor industry on an ignorant public.
D
"Get even - live long enough to become a problem for your children"!
Hm, spell check just moved out of the house. I must've offended.
HardToLove
Actually, the high diversity mutual fund is the biggest scam. The managers collect a percentage for producing lower than market index returns, calculated after their percentage!
I think the poor return numbers show that most "investment advisers" have a monetary agenda they don't advertise. Why else point people towards those funds?
I am also embarrassed to say that i am in pretty much the exact same boat as you. I have a ways to go before retirement as well. I believe if one can find just a couple stocks at a great price that allow you to sleep well at night...go for it. I just try not to tell too many people.
Not that there are not times that I have doubt. coming up with all kinds of black swan scenarios that will send the stock further south. But when I calm down and think rationally, the risk/reward of Axion right now is about as good as it possibly gets.
Seriously, I'm a sucker for the crooked grins and "googly" eyes when they're *very* young.
I think you-know-who planned it that way so the males wouldn't disown them even knowing what was in the future as they became teens!
HardToLove
It'll be a little higher, then.
My question is, who has more Axion stock...you or Petersen?? ;-)
Once declined a "handshake" offer from the Baltimore Orioles, perhaps my most stupid mistake I ever made in my life. But the offer was only a tad more a month than was my car payment.
You never know where those little opportunities would have led, but you do know it most likely would not not have led to where you are now. Which is a pretty fun place, writing a book in the evenings and trading stock during the day.
Wrote about it in QC.
Next party I'm throwing in Honduras, if attendance justifies, will be the "Ending Of The World Fiesta, 12/21/12."
Hopefully by then, Axion will aid in paying for it.
I'll have iced tea, instead of champagne, with my caviar, please ;-)
Say, if Axion stock goes that high I can afford my own plane ticket!
finance.yahoo.com/echa...;range=my;indicator=vo...
this is what happened in the end
www.theaustralian.com....
the market had been "flooded" with Chinese imports..
Imagine the future for AXPW when start-stop technology becomes compulsive like airbags, (we are not far from this point...) and there is no Chinese company having this technology...
greek gatsby
I presume accurate books, of course, if licensed.
HardToLove
Axion is in a much better position in that government is not subsidizing it but, rather, imposing regulations requiring stop/start - these regs cost the government nothing and are extremely unlikely to ever be removed.
Also, given the patent protection and the natural difficulty of reverse engineering the PbC, Axion is also extremely unlikely to ever to see its market flooded by cheap Chinese knock-offs.
Yet another positive market dynamic for the good guys!
D
www.nytimes.com/2011/0...
If there is a benefit, I would hope that Axion's advantages would far outweigh whatever pressures the Chinese might bring to the table, giving advantage to Axion.
HardToLove
Next Concentrator------> this way.
seekingalpha.com/insta...
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