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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 11: Beginning September 16, 2011 140 comments
    Sep 16, 2011 11:53 AM | about stocks: NSC
    Since we appear in a holding mode, hopefully short term, I thought it would be fun to start this concentrator off with a short satire about how Social Security Reform encourages Americans to "live faster" and "die younger," all to do their bit to help with our national deficit.

    Suggest paying attention to the ticker stream at the bottom of the screen. I didn't catch this hilarity until my second viewing. 

    I learned of this quite funny video through my eldest sister, who is a mere couple of months away from turning 65.

    There is profanity, so if profane dialogue bothers you, then please do not watch this video.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QuFnOYcy4E
    Themes: Automobile, Railroad, Marine, Oil, Satire Stocks: NSC
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Comments (140)
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  • Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from almishelvis:

     

    anthlj, on Granville and your dishwasher comp.. I have met him, and on a one/one he is funny, and very social. I understand what you are saying about his public speaking, for me it underscores some of his traits,, which are methodical, patient, deliberate. All of these are great qualities for a company that is running in a marathon. In a way he is the perfect guy for the job... step by step getting all the details crossed off and moving forward.
    I also had a quick chat with Phil Baker,, and walked away being very impressed.
    16 Sep 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » John: Hopiing you won't nap through the above satire!
    16 Sep 2011, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • ONN is one of my favorite channels in the world. Another classic is here:

     

    www.theonion.com/video.../
    16 Sep 2011, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • I love that one John. Unfortunately - adjusts tin-foil hat - there's likely more truth than fiction to it.

     

    Needless to say, I'm not on facebook, twitter, ...

     

    HardToLove
    16 Sep 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Great stuff, John! Hilarious.
    16 Sep 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Over the years I've laughed and I've cried - laughing is better.
    16 Sep 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,

     

    The video was hilarious. But we don't need to encourage oldsters to do that sort of stuff. IIRC, we all, as teenagers and early-20-somethings did those things with no prompting, ergo no government funding needed.

     

    So make more youngsters that work hard and contribute more and die young. Then us old farts can live in luxury for our remaining years and the fund will not only stay solvent, but grow exponentially.

     

    Should take only 20 years or so to start seeing positive results.

     

    Downside? We need to make jobs so they can pay FICA etc.

     

    Hmmm ... *that* might be a problem unless we ship the youngsters off-shore where we are sending all our jobs. Bummer maaan!

     

    But we can do that - send 'em overseas! And this'll make Obama happy: then institute an international tax system so that we tax the earnings, regardless of source, and bring at least the tax portion of the earned income back here.

     

    No need to bring the offspring back - just the tax revenue! That assures solvency going forward!

     

    HardToLove
    16 Sep 2011, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • HTL

     

    "Hmmm ... *that* might be a problem unless we ship the youngsters off-shore where we are sending all our jobs. Bummer maaan!

     

    But we can do that - send 'em overseas! And this'll make Obama happy: then institute an international tax system so that we tax the earnings, regardless of source, and bring at least the tax portion of the earned income back here.

     

    No need to bring the offspring back - just the tax revenue! That assures solvency going forward!"

     

    Hmmm....tempting to ship the kids out, but mine are only 3 1/2 yrs, and 10 1/2 months so I guess I'll have to wait until they get a "little" older. Let's see...which countries don't have child labor laws?? ;-)
    16 Sep 2011, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like the Chinese have found a scapegoat for their lead poisoning in Shanghai. Why of course...it's the American company!! Love the fact that they had won awards for running the plant so cleanly, and now they are supposed to be the cause of the pollution.

     

    SHANGHAI (AP) — Shanghai's environmental watchdog ordered two factories in its suburbs to halt production pending an investigation into the source of lead poisoning among children in a nearby village.

     

    The Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau said in a notice on its website Friday that it was studying lead emissions from the two factories, one of which is a large lead-acid battery plant run by U.S.-based Johnson Controls.

     

    The Pudong district government, where the cases were found, issued a statement saying it believed the Johnson Controls factory was the main source of lead emissions in the area.

     

    Milwaukee, Wisconsin-based Johnson Controls said it was taking residents' concerns about lead exposure very seriously and cooperating with the authorities, but that it had no reason to believe its battery factory was causing contamination.

     

    The company earlier confirmed it had suspended production after hitting its annual lead use quota.

     

    Staff at the other company, Shanghai Xinmingyuan Automobile Accessory Co., confirmed it had stopped its lead-related production, which the environment bureau said was unauthorized.

     

    "We did not know that we cannot produce products with lead without a license," said Li Zhiliang, a manager at the factory, which according to trade websites makes wheel balance weights and plastic auto accessories for Shanghai Volkswagen.

     

    Li said his plant did not produce any lead emissions.

     

    "Actually our products have won awards for environmental protection," Li said.

     

    Families living in Kanghua New Village, a small block of apartment buildings erected 15 years ago to house farm families moved to make way for the city's Kangqiao Industrial Zone, say recent checks showed many of their children had abnormally high blood lead levels.

     

    The source of the lead contamination has not been confirmed. But the village is located just north of the zone and close to chemical, battery and electronics equipment factories.

     

    Johnson Controls says its battery plant was named a "national model enterprise for occupational health and safety" in 2006. The factory has lead emissions at about one-seventh the Chinese national standard and employees are regularly tested to ensure their blood lead levels remain low enough, the company said in an emailed statement.

     

    Earlier this week, the company announced it was expanding in China, planning a new $100 million plant to make start-stop batteries for vehicles.
    16 Sep 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • They probably ought to check the paint in those apartments - likely from a Chinese company.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Sep 2011, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Guess JCI didn't want to create any jobs over here.

     

    edit: Ok, I'll admit this might be harsh; it's probably very hard to find a place to put a factory that uses hazardous material (which I'm assuming lead to be).
    16 Sep 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • I think in the case of JCI's plants in China it has more to do with building a plant where they want to sell the product, than it does the cost of the work force. It's no different than Toyota or Honda building a plant here in the US so that they don't have to ship the cars across an ocean to deliver them. JCI has major plants in or around all the countries they sell in. With their latest projections on AGM production, I would assume they will be expanding their production facilities here in the US as well.
    16 Sep 2011, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • In a new story from Design News, Lux has started naming names of lithium ion battery companies that are potential early candidates for the coming shakeout of manufacturers. Since I'd hate to spoil the fun, I've decided to just post a link instead:

     

    www.designnews.com/aut...
    16 Sep 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Maya et al: Regarding the discussion of a "flag" on Concentrator 10: that pattern has broken down and we seem now to have a descending wedge. This developed over the last few days.

     

    This patterns performs well with downward breaks in a bear trend.

     

    I believe it lends support to a near-term possibility of the mid-to-high $0.5x pps range as a possibility.

     

    OOPS! Just hit 0.595 as I typed!

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. On rising volume as price moves down - bearish!
    16 Sep 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Following up on the above as to why ...

     

    Remember we saw a price move up when the R & R conference was announced?

     

    We theorized that some momentum players were positioning to sell into possible buying demand. With the flip of the flag to a descending wedge and yesterday's and today's rising volume on price move down, I believe what we are seeing is the momentum players taking profits.

     

    Remember we had that big volume spike on rising price on 9/6 - lends support to our theory?

     

    We had one more day of price up and then it slowly started moving down, making the flag. Then the flag pattern ended 9/13 and after a couple more days we see enough to recognize a descending wedge.

     

    Looking at the price ranges and volumes, in just a few days those momentum traders, if they are there, should be out and we could/should see price recover again if folks at the R & R conference got enthusiastic and are starting or continuing to buy.

     

    I presume they are smart and will not pile in all at once with huge trades, so an "orderly" recovery seems most likely.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Sep 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks a bunch HTL, excellent stuff. It is very nice to have your TA, you have been dead on recently.
    16 Sep 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Did some checking into XIDE yesterday and today, after I added some in the brokerage account. My findings led me to call my broker, feeling like a poor street dog, ears back, tail between my legs.

     

    I sold off my entire position of Exide today for 5 reasons (what follows is pasted in from a comment I made in Mitch Vine's latest piece about Exide, and will lead off my 5 Reasons For Dumping Exide by first posting what Mitch Vine posted in his article:

     

    Comment by Mitch Vine: Note - heavy selling by GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL over the last three days, and probably today. The hedge fund manager has been paring down their large XIDE holdings for many months. 875,000 shares sold just the last few days. Seems like they are selling into every sign of strength. They reportedly still held 8,614,476 shares on the 15th. This is a lot compared to 78 mln shares outstanding. Don't know if today's odd price drop was related but it seems like a good bet.

     

    ####

     

    I saw that Mitch. Yesterday, I added XIDE. Today, I liquidated the whole position; shares I held that were purchased at $3.94 a long time back.

     

    My Five Reasons For Dumping Exide:

     

    1) I, too, noticed Gendell dumping...fast

     

    2) That typically stocks that are significantly beaten down, as XIDE has been, this time of the year is not the time to buy, because around Thanksgiving the trading houses sell their dogs to offset their gains for tax reasons

     

    3) XIDE's goodwill on the balance sheet is exorbitantly high

     

    4) XIDE has huge debt

     

    5) This is my largest concern, (as written above) XIDE does a significant share in the after market. If batteries are literally being forced become much more powerful, and last much longer, than XIDE's business model comes into question

     

    Kudos to you Mitch, for writing this article. Kudos also to my broker, an article I read about Exide on Motely Fool, and also a little poking around their balance sheet, which led me to run for the hills.

     

    Just watch XIDE bounce big next week! ;-)

     

    Note to JP: I sold off my XIDE shares that I bougth around the same time you bought (for under $2 per) for around $7.xx a while back. Then bought back in after XIDE had dropped under $4)
    16 Sep 2011, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Hey, Maya, I saw where there were still a few more shares of AXPW available...

     

    Serious note, though...

     

    I also help moderate a few car sites. Recently we have been seeing a lot of posts touting batteries.

     

    Here's one of them:
    VRLA batteries don’t pollute the equipment and environment, which can be used along with electrical devices, so you don’t need a special room to place and maintain it, meaning less maintenance. Besides, you can use the folded battery rack to install it, which occupies a little space to save the investment cost of power source system.
    The valve-regulated lead acid battery VRLA is a sealed battery that doesn't require maintenance, such as topping up the fluid level. It also contains a one-way pressure release valve so that that any excess gas produced in the cells can escape, but also ensuring that external air cannot enter the cells; this improves the batteries shelf life.
    Due to the features of security valve controls venting design, the VRLA battery can not be tested with a hydrometer like a regular battery, rather, it must be tested with a digital voltmeter. By following a few simply steps, you can easily test the VRLA battery to ensure they are in shape.
    1. Look for the terminal covers on the VRLA battery and remove them to expose the terminal posts.
    2. Clamp the positive lead on the digital voltmeter to the positive post on the VRLA battery. Clamp the negative lead on the digital voltmeter to the negative post on VRLA battery.
    3. Turn on the digital voltmeter. A reading of 12.8 to 12.9 volts means that the VRLA battery is fully charged. A reading of anything lower means that the battery needs to be charged.
    Just with a digital voltmeter, you will know whether the VRLA battery needs to be charged. Giving them full charge will extend their life anyway. There are two types of VRLA battery; absorbed glass mat AGM, which has fiber silicone glass between the plates, and gelled, which has silicone gel in the cells.
    VRLA batteries have a long shelf life, so even if your vehicle isn't used for some time you can expect the battery to still remain charged, as the discharge rate is only 1 to 3 percent per month. You can charge an AGM VRLA battery using any standard vehicle battery charger, and because there isn't any liquid in the cells, your battery won't be affected during extended periods of freezing weather, which can cause the casing to crack if you have regular wet-cell batteries.
    www.marshell.net/
    16 Sep 2011, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • I still think Exide's going the other direction but will be more than happy to treat that issue as a bet between friends.

     

    1. Gendell is Exide's Gelbaum, except that he started with a bigger position in Exide (23.7 million in 7/08) and less diversity. Redemptions have been killing him since the 2008 crash.

     

    2. Exide's chart for the last two years has been beaten down for the first part of their fiscal year and come roaring back in the second half. They report on a 3/31 year and their Q1 ended June 30 is always their worst because it's lawn and garden season.

     

    3. Goodwill is only problematic if you don't have substantial income before special items. For the last two years Exide made $70 million if you add back restructuring costs. There will be no significant restructuring costs this year and they're expecting Net Income in the $70 to $90 million range.

     

    4. The huge debt is a series of notes that were just issued and are very long dated. I can pretty well guarantee that they'll want to convert that to equity once the Gendell pressure on their price goes away.

     

    5. Batteries for new cars built in coming years need to be a lot better. The hundreds of millions of vehicles on the road today will take years to cycle out of the global car parc so while change will be needed long-term, there is no short term existential threat.
    17 Sep 2011, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • Maya,

     

    The goodwill and huge debt is what has kept me out of Xide and I thought I was the only one around here scared of them. I have been EXTREMELY close to starting a position with them if for no other reason the confidence many posters have had in them.

     

    I just see the story to close to resembling C&D...I know, different companies, Xide has the revenue moving in good directions but I am just afraid we are going to get someone wanting to call them on that goodwill sooner or later, especially when there are so many advanced battery manufacturers making some distinct improvements thereby pushing their goodwill to obsolete. Yikes.

     

    IMO, if you want a good battery play and balance that Axion risk in your portfolio, I would personally go with JCI. They have a lot of energy products, energy efficiency buildings and they are setting themselves up for whatever battery technology takes the cake, Lithium, LA, PbC, AGM; they go well beyond just selling a battery. There stock has been beaten down the past few months from all the volatility and perhaps some of that Saft thing. It is now in the lower $30's and I am very confident it will hit again well into the $40's at least in the next several months, especially if we have some economic stability. They are a very well positioned diverse company in the energy storage arena.
    17 Sep 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » jarkutz: Actually, JCI's goodwill is also higher than I would like to see. But I'm a JCI lover. Cool story about my grandfather was that he was a builder of homes before the Great Depression. In a joint project, my grandpop and Abraham Linclon's grandson built the Camelback Inn, in Scottsdale, AZ. During that time, Abe's grandson told my grandpop to invest in some outfit that made zigzag springs for car seats. This company's name was Universal Wire and Spring (I believe). They ended up making the zigzag springs that went into Jeep seats during WWII. Sometime later, the company name morphed into...Johnson Controls.

     

    My grandfather was stuck with 18 Shaker Heights, OH homes on his hands when the Great Depression hit, and the story goes, he nearly drove himself off a cliff.

     

    Later on in life, my grandpop told my mother to never ever sell JCI. Unfortunately, post-Lehman, my family convinced my mom to sell JCI at just under $20.00, after JCI had plummeted over 50%, and get more diversified. One of the reasons why I'm on this website, in fact, the biggest reason, and why my novel was delayed, was that I had to buckle down and learn and get my mom's portfolio back up to where it was pre-Lehman, while also increasing her annual income. (Though JCI had an admirable record, a historical record, of increasing their dividend every year, the yield still isn't real impressive).

     

    Both my sisters and I worked at it hard, and we eventually did achieved that goal.

     

    Speaking of diversification, JCI was brilliant in picking up York International, and now has become a global leader in building climate control.

     

    I still own a little sentimental chunk of JCI, because I believe it's one of the best operated industrial powerhouses in the USA.

     

    I believe that you're right, and JCI will get back above $40 within the next year. (caveats, caveats caveats!)
    17 Sep 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • That is a great story. I wonder if my brother owns one of your grandpops homes in Shaker Heights. Some of the most beautiful (and affordable b/c of economy) homes in the US.

     

    "I still own a little sentimental chunk of JCI, because I believe it's one of the best operated industrial powerhouses in the USA." -- I second that!
    17 Sep 2011, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • John, regarding "convert notes to equity", I don't see this is good for Exide's stock price, as it means possible dilution of shares in future. Or I miss something here?
    17 Sep 2011, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Dilution is the most poorly understood concept in the investment world. Today Exide has 78 million shares out and $416 million in equity, which gives the shares a book value of a little over $5. If the price runs to $15 for example and it converts the debt to equity at that point, it would take 50 million shares to flush $750 million in debt off the books. At the end of the day the 128 million shares would have $1,116 million, or $9.01 per share.

     

    The old stockholders would watch their shares pick up a $4.10 accretion to value.

     

    The people who would suffer the dilution are the debt holders who watched their book value decline from $750 million to $500 million.

     

    Think bartenders school. If you own a beer and you add a shot of whisky, the beer gets fortified and the whisky gets diluted.
    18 Sep 2011, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » John: Bet's on, pal. Not quite sure what the parameters are! Your ear is closer to the rail than mine. But, Exide has a history of poor leadership; they've undergone bankruptcy not long ago. The product they are making they asked Axion to take a peek at, and learned from Granville their AGM battery stinks.

     

    If I recall correctly, they are building a lithium plant, and if they truly are building a lithium battery plant for cars, and it works, then the my investing premise for Axion gets skewed. I bailed because the largest position holder is bailing because I believe Exide's up that dirty creek without a paddle, and he, or they, know it. I'm not certain of this, but I recall Exide has some bonds that pay (or paid) 19%.

     

    According to the Motely Fool article I read, Exide's debt-to-equity ratio is 182%, and their quick ratio is 0.8. The cost of lead has gone up; COGS up 18.2% YoY affecting the top line. Margins are narrowing. Even with this, they expanded inventory that appears too high for tough times. Another bad mistake by management, exacerbated by the Japan tsunami. Though their EZ growth is good, US sales are lagging, and the increased COGS eats into that growth.
    I'm not predicting that Exide is going bankrupt again. But I don't like the fact that the CEO has a huge stake, and appears to be liquidating fast. It appears he is preserving his capital, and to an infinitesimal degree smaller, so did I.

     

    As things currently stand, I'm not liking their business model. Nor the planned direction they're heading.

     

    I do not want to be underwater with two battery stocks.

     

    I have to make a correction. I just checked my brokerage statement and I bought back into Exide at $4.73, on May 11th last year. Not $3.94.

     

    The "bet" should probably be that Axion shares in 30 months will be priced higher than Exide. Of course, both of us would end up on the same side of that bet!
    17 Sep 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • I guess that should keep me doing what I last did - just trade the options based on TA to make profits.

     

    Took 40.5% profit, friction included, from 8/23 to 8/29.

     

    If I hadn't been cautious, I would've bought a lot more contracts and made some really noticeable bucks.

     

    What I like about using the options is that I risk less (in this case it was $0.30/share equivalent + friction) and *if* the stock moves favorably really big gains can be had.

     

    Prior to that I took a small loss on my Exide long equity position. I had also taken some profits being short $10 calls over those positions.

     

    A few more cycles and I should be back to even, net.

     

    There is a *very* strong directional correlation between the S&P 500 and (XIDE). This makes the options plays even a little less risky if you can be near right on the market move for just a few days.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Let's define some terms that don't confuse Exide with Axion.

     

    I'll go for dinner at a time and place to be negotiated at a later date. I'm picking Exide at $12 to $15 by March 1, 2012.

     

    I'll also propose a second tier bet that you won't be underwater with any battery stocks at year end unless you go out and buy something new.
    17 Sep 2011, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • I am not quite sure yet but I think I may be with JP on this one. Last October Gendell and Tontine each dumped 1.6M shares @ $4.86. Two months later they each sold another 90k @ $8.26, 237k @ $8.40, 47k @ $8.51. They did this in tandem. Each were holding the same number of shares on 12/03/10 until Gendell started selling in semi-random blocks beginning 12/13/10 thru 03/21/11. Tontine hasn't sold a single share since 12/03/10 AND the CFO has been building a LARGE position.

     

    So, last September the stock was in the $4 range (like it is now). Thanksgiving it was in the high $7 range (so much for the selling). However, the most interesting thing is that it was in the $12 the following March (go figure). All things considered, a $12-15 price next March doesn't seem too far fetched. Thinking about doubling my position next week before the price goes up...

     

    18 Sep 2011, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tontine is the name of Gendell's family of funds, so I'm not sure whether the mirror trades were a single block of stock or a double.
    19 Sep 2011, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • The two funds had similar investments but when I revisited them I noticed one (Tontine) had not been updated so I suspect they may be one in the same with Gendell being the most current. So, maybe today will be a do nothing day instead ;)

     

    Looks like we are off to another rough start...
    19 Sep 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • The last Schedule 13G for Tontine, Gendell and related funds is here:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/qseOQc

     

    What's interesting about the Tontine position is that it was 8,614,476 shares in mid-August after the latest sales. Once the position falls below 7.8 million shares, their duty to file Form 4 reports for each transaction will end, although their ownership will continue to be trackable on a quarterly basis through the funds' holdings reports.

     

    I believe what we're seeing with Tontine is investor withdrawals that are making them reduce all positions, rather than a decision to sell Exide and keep something else. Nevertheless, I haven't taken the time to really study the details.
    19 Sep 2011, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the info on the Gendells. I have a small investment in the stock and thinking about adding soon. Other than the Gendells, can you provide some information on why the stock would rise from $4 some to $12. Thank you!
    21 Sep 2011, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • In a word, restructuring - or more accurately the lack of restructuring charges. For the last couple years they've been closing plants and restructuring their global footprint. That effort cost $42.2 million and $80.6 million in the years ended March 31, 2011 and 2010. Without restructuring charges Exide made $70 million each year and actually made $80 million last year if you add back $10 million in refinancing costs on their debt.

     

    Exide has already said the restructuring is finished and provided earnings guidance for this year. The stock is currently trading at 5x guidance so it has to run unless we have a complete meltdown.
    22 Sep 2011, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you!
    22 Sep 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » You're on! Possibly, New Castle, PA, next June? Right now, I can't recall the name, but there is, if it's still open, a fantastic restaurant in Beaver, PA, that had the top wine collection in PA, before Nemacolin Woodlands Resort set up shop about 22 years ago.

     

    I know you don't imbibe, but a restaurant with that kind of selection of wines, must also have a mouth-watering menu.

     

    By the way, if Gendell/Tontine push Exide beneath $2.00 again, I'll likely pick up a few shares, just not as much as I sold yesterday.

     

    Or, if Exide joins up with Axion, I may add some then, at whatever the share price will then be.
    17 Sep 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Axion has already had the pleasure of the big fish inviting the little fish to dinner in early 2009. Since then it's grown a vicious set of teeth.
    17 Sep 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • You guys make a bit too much sense. Yesterday I opened a limit order to sell March 2012, 7.5 PUTs on Exide to generate some income. The worst that could have happened is that I bought more (XIDE) at $4.60.

     

    I just canceled that order. I don't need the income enough to take the risk of holding more XIDE or it's proxy. I do believe most stocks are now correlated to the S&P ( per H.T. Love) and I believe that the S&P will trend up over the next 6 months. In ordinary times it would have been a good bet. But the worldwide market and economic situation is just too squirrely.

     

    I feel better already :>)
    17 Sep 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Rule One - never own a stock that costs you sleep.
    17 Sep 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • www.theoptionhouserest.../ This restaurant looks very interesting,, in Butler Pa.. I suppose there are a few nice ones in Pittsburgh
    17 Sep 2011, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    Wooden Angel
    S
    19 Sep 2011, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Wow, anybody been over to Axion's Yahoo business webpage today? Lewis Taylor from Mega-C just went off on Kirt T. about how Axion stole the rights to the PbC technology from his company and how we are all going to lose everything when the US appeals court rules in his favor in November. Granted he's lost every lawsuit he's brought to this point, but it was quite the grandstanding statement.
    19 Sep 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Three words – when pigs fly.
    19 Sep 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Not great PR for the stock. Weren't Mega-c Shareholders converted to Axion shareholders. What is Lewis T. after? the 400k he had invested but then signed over to Axion through the reverse merger. Isn't there a limit to how many times he can appeal? How many times has he tried already? What a bunch of BS.
    19 Sep 2011, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Some people will go to great lengths to appear relevant. This guy failed years ago, but that doesn't mean he can't whine in a public forum.
    19 Sep 2011, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • I figure he's got two motivations. 1) Just doing it for spite and hoping any bad PR he generates now hurts Axion when they are trying to grow the company. 2) Hopes that Axion doesn't want the bad PR right now and will throw him a bone to get him to shut up. I've always wondered if he's not the one bankrolling Sockpuppet on the Yahoo site.
    19 Sep 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • I believe the entire plan was greenmail from day one because I never saw a legal position that I thought sound. The time for bone throwing is long past and I can't imagine that Axion is paying any attention at all.
    19 Sep 2011, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • "Weren't Mega-c Shareholders converted to Axion shareholders."

     

    According to Kirk T., much of Axion's original stock was issued to a trust fund, controlled by the courts, for distribution to Mega-C shareholders. However, there have been more shares of Axion sold since, and a lot of the shares that were in the trust have been sold to fund the various lawsuits by Mega-C shareholders and Lewis Taylor, so that there isn't much worth left in the trust fund.
    19 Sep 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » SD: That's it! Thanks.
    19 Sep 2011, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • check in on ZBB, worth a cursory look, especially if drops to mid-.50s.

     

    power grid here's help:)
    19 Sep 2011, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • re: (ZBB) They have a good product and apparently a market is in the making. All they need now is more customers. I don't consider government sponsored "demonstration installations" as customers. More like publicity. But I suppose every bit helps the cash flow.
    19 Sep 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Adding AXPW today...
    19 Sep 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • 1. I own some ZBB. Anyone else here own it? It keeps dropping and looks like another buying opportunity is coming up.
    Any ideas?

     

    2. What is going on with BCON? I feel like hitting buying button today.

     

    Thanks.
    19 Sep 2011, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • They are breathing heavy on the yahoo board.
    S
    19 Sep 2011, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • With the behavior I've seen the very *few* times I visited a Yahoo board, I'm surprised there's anyone left breating, in any fashion, over there.

     

    I don't bother to go there anymore and have removed all the bookmarks to those boards. I'm sure there must be some good ones though. It's not worth my time to try and find them.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Sep 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL ... I feel compelled to ask; Is this sham litigation threat the reason for AXPW pps dropping as hard as it is?

     

    Personally I think it is just market forces in the energy sector & alt-en in particular (Risk-Off). The volume is not really very heavy so I just had to ask for other opinions.
    19 Sep 2011, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • >DRich: I can't comment on the litigation - I'm totally ignorant about that sort of stuff. But, ...

     

    Nothing unexpected here. I take this as a good sign anytime it behaves close to what we thought might occur.

     

    http://bit.ly/oTHMaV

     

    WARNING: lots of assumptions in the following that are not supported by any hard facts.

     

    I *suspect* that it's traders that hopped aboard prior to the nice move up (low of $0.42 8/19) through the high of $0.68 a few days prior to the R & R conference looking to take some short-term gains, which we suggested might be the case here.

     

    http://bit.ly/qSaewp

     

    Looking at intra-day activity, these thoughts seem to hold water as the largest trade was 17K (a form t, which is one that's been parceled out in small lots so as not to move price - *could* be one of the institutionals though and it is ~9% of today's volume - near a figure mentioned by JP that Quercus uses) and a few 14K and 10K blocks. So, mostly retail trades.

     

    So nothing exceptional. It looks like a combination of momentum players that took early profits and some others that entered late and are cutting losses - along with a possible Quercus sale?.

     

    Our volume is down from Friday's, so we can expect the rate of descent to slow *unless* we break an important support. We have a "minor" support in the $0.53-$0.54 area and a major one at $0.48.

     

    My *experimental* 10-period lower Bolinger is at ~$0.59 and we broke through that, so there ought to be some resistance to much more move down. Allowing for intra-day vacillation, I really think the $0.53-$0.54 area ought to hold *if* we see it.

     

    With the volume falling off and being about 1/2 the 25-day average of ~350K Friday, I suspect one, *maybe* two, more down days, with a narrowing price range and further reduced volume, ought to be near getting it done. My estimate is that the $0.53-$0.54 range ought to be our bottom *unless* Quercus has scheduled another small dump in this period. Of course, it's always possible that today made the bottom too, but the pattern & volume suggest a small move further.

     

    If it plays out that way, we should see price start to claw back up slowly again after another day or two.

     

    I'm going to have at least one small trading block buy in at the $0.54 range. Downside is no more than $0.48, IMO (and might be at the gap of $0.50-$0.51 of Fri 8/19 - Mon 8/22), and near-term upside s/b at least $0.61 just from "reversion to the mean" performance.

     

    Please be careful in consideration as both I and my charts are *experimental* in nature, as well as me being relatively new (i.e. I've not been doing this for decades like some and have a lot to learn yet).

     

    HardToLove
    19 Sep 2011, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL ... Thanks.
    19 Sep 2011, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » This is the kind of governmental BS that grates me no end. Saft recieved a $95.5 million grant from the DOE to open a 235,000 square foot lithium battery plant in Jacksonville, FL.

     

    This France-based company is expected to create 300 jobs. That's $318,333.33 of taxpayer money invested per job...to make lithium-ion batteries for cars that make absolutely no economic sense.

     

    http://bit.ly/pMU0rG
    19 Sep 2011, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • >Maya:

     

    But they are GREEN jobs! That makes all the difference............... to a politician :<(
    19 Sep 2011, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Wonder who they bought the photoelectric cells on the roof from? Nice to know that Saft was so invested in the Li-ion battery industry here that they were willing to spend our money to build a plant. I guess we should be happy they at least put up half of the money for the facility themselves instead of making the taxpayers foot the whole bill. At least they are diversified enough that it won't just be for EV batteries. Hopefully that will keep the doors open and the workers employed for awhile.
    19 Sep 2011, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Looks like the Mexican Standoff is in play again.

     

    With bid/ask of $0.57/$0.60 and about 15K best bid this am and 10K best offer, we just got our first trade @ 10:36:58 of 2K @ $0.57.

     

    I wonder how many days it will go on this time.

     

    Should we start a poll for volume today? Over under 50K? Yesterday was ~$1.89K and 25-day average is ~340K through yesterday.

     

    I vote under.

     

    In the TA biz, we suspect this is entering consolidation. Short, medium, long term? Can't tell yet.

     

    One good take-away is that it seems unlikely Quercus is releasing any shares into the market today.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Sep 2011, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hard: Looking like a very slow day in trading, so far. Have you noticed that it appears a greater amount of trading is done after noon, then before noon, recently?

     

    4411 so far today.
    20 Sep 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • I hadn't noticed on individual stocks, but following (SPY), trying to decide to cut losses or hang in with (SDS), I had noticed it there.

     

    Of course, it does have a late-day spike on a regular basis but has a long falling volume period generally starting somewhere around 10-30-11:00.

     

    The few times in the past I looked at (AXPW) when we had days like this I did note that the folks seemed to get tired or staring at each other and we finally get some movement but other times I didn't pay attention to that.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Sep 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • HTL,

     

    The past two days have been pretty strange can you make TA heads or tails of it? Did we hit our .57 bottom.
    20 Sep 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • "Volume is the truth teller".

     

    Until we see volume start to come in all the charts and TA indicators are suspect. TA includes consideration of volume as an important factor.

     

    So far, only 32,380 volume and that started after a long "stare down" with a big spread. Even with the spread now at $0.015, still no volume coming in.

     

    So I can't say we *made* the bottom, but it is certainly possible. The TA indicators are mixed right now, some suggesting move up in the works, others still showing negative action possible. This is normal at points of indecision, which is essentially where we are.

     

    For a penny or two either way, a long-term investor could jump in anywhere here and not worry, IMO. And since we did penetrate the lowr support and bounced right back above it, some folks might feel confident moving here. Especially since it has come back above $0.60, an important level. But without volume it could be what's called "a head fake".

     

    For a trade, you really want to wait until some trend, supported by volume starting to appear, can be seen so that you can make sure risk/reward seems attractive for what is expected.

     

    I'm waiting ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Sep 2011, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the analysis.
    20 Sep 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • I find it interesting that the price suddenly climbed back to $0.61/share on really low volume. While I like the price moving up, it almost seems like someone is trying to prime the system by agreeing to higher prices on a few small purchases in hopes that they will spur a run. We'll see if the price holds at the end of the day or we'll have the usual quick dump in the last half hour as profit takers try and sell at the higher price.
    20 Sep 2011, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Gang: I just put in a "mock" order for Axion Power at $0.55 and this is what my trading platform cautioned in red text:

     

    This security may not be DTC-eligible and may be subject to Physical Stock Certificate Fees as high as $700 per order. Moreover, sales of Low Priced Securities may be subject to buy-in, without notice, when certain market conditions are met. By submitting this order you indicate that you have read and understand Zecco Trading's

     

    I also put in mock orders for (http://bit.ly/nZAV1I) and (http://bit.ly/qu5K9F) and got the same warning!
    20 Sep 2011, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • No such warning on NYMellon, FSC or Schwab, Maya.
    20 Sep 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • O.K...so for the scientist is the room who didn't get an MBA, anyone want to explain what the heck that means? Sounds like the only stock that is available is coming from sellers who have physical paper stock only, and so you are going to have to pay a hefty fee if you want to buy it for the trading company to facilitate its transfer? Am I understanding that correctly or am I completely wrong??
    20 Sep 2011, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe, LabTech. My successful trial orders were NOT done inside a margin-enabled account, so perhaps it has to do with options at that...
    20 Sep 2011, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Time out for editing because of a furniture delivery. The other two stocks I put in mock orders were (SPLM) and (URRE).
    20 Sep 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Also, the incomplete sentence following, "...understand Zecco Trading's..." reads as follows. (It was two links that would allow anyone to link directly into my account. Can't have that!)

     

    And so it reads, "...understand Zecco Trading's "Low Priced Equities Disclosure and FAQs."

     

    ####

     

    Recently, Zecco also upped the friction for trading penny stocks from $4.50, to $6.95.
    20 Sep 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • No warning on FMR.
    20 Sep 2011, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • It is absolutely DTC eligible because I did that work years ago.
    20 Sep 2011, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • I'm betting over 50 but under 100. I agree with Maya. I does seem like the movement comes in the late afternoon on days like this. You have two groups. The first group knows it has sell orders to fill, but sits there all morning hoping that something will move the price up. Then by the end of the day they rush in to get their deals done before closing. The second group has limit buy orders in and isn't moving from those. If they get them, they get them, but with no new news, they don't seem in any hurry to buy.
    20 Sep 2011, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Just talked to Zecco, with HTL conferenced in, and learned from Zecco that Axion will not be charged with DTC extra fees.

     

    Phew!
    20 Sep 2011, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Seems like anything that has to do with a battery today is getting spanked. Xide -5%, ACPW -5%, Aone -5%, even JCI is down which usually follows the S&P that is up. HEV continues there free fall albeit for good reason.
    20 Sep 2011, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): <*chortle*>

     

    47,017. I win! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    20 Sep 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,

     

    Hey, the stock stayed above $0.6...we all win! :-) Now if it would just keep moving up on higher volume, that would be even better.
    20 Sep 2011, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): And it started low and closed higher ($0.61). But it was very small trades on the 1-minute chart that put it up there.

     

    So, overall, a decent day considering how much of the day was spent in the "stare down".

     

    If it's like the last time, it'll take some time to break out of this mode and we'll all start carping, including me, wishing it would do something.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Sep 2011, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • (XIDE): Don't be fooled by the current apparent pps of $5.37, almost close ($4.48) plus a dollar ($5.37). It's after hours 500 shares.

     

    Makes it look like the day's gain is +11.64% when in reality we closed down 33 cents, -6.69%.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Sep 2011, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • New Axion article here:

     

    http://bit.ly/n45VUJ
    20 Sep 2011, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » User: Great find! Only a couple of inaccuracies in the article, and though indicated, I did not see a link to the Seeking Alpha article mentioned, but it reads well.

     

    Thanks!
    20 Sep 2011, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • It was pretty obvious that the author doesn't want to fully understand the positive attributes of the PbC. He knows it works but doesn't comprehend the full benefits of the carbon based negative electrode. It seems like one of those cases where it simply is to simple an explanation to accept.

     

    Someone really should explain to him that it is the negative electrode that fails in a lead acid battery first and foremost. That is simply the problem that the PbC has solved. We will await further testing to show what other issues have been resolved.
    20 Sep 2011, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist,
    He's basically acknowledging an argument that Killacycle was making on one of Mr. Petersen's seeking alpha articles, where he claims that even though the PbC eliminates sulfur crystal build-up on the negative electrode, it doesn't stop it from happening on the positive one. Therefore, he argues, the PbC battery will fail due to sulfur crystal build-up on the positive electrode. Granted there's no proof of that, and all of Axion's testing in the white paper didn't show this to be a problem, but there is still the possibility that "some" sulfur is deposited on the positive electrode and so at "some" point it may be a problem. Just not in the 100,000 cycles that Axion already tested the battery for.
    20 Sep 2011, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • >LabTech ... So the race is on. Will the electrolyte give out from old age before some heretofore unknown problem makes the battery fail. In 15 years we'll have an answer.
    20 Sep 2011, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • IIRC, the anode (positive electrode) doesn't fail from large crystal formation, but from sloughing of material. The sulphation is the agent for that?

     

    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2011, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • In spite of the table pounding from my favorite troll, grid corrosion is the primary problem. As the grid corrodes the active materials lose their supporting substrate and slough off. While sulfation can be a problem on the positive plates, it only happens under highly abusive conditions like letting a battery sit around in a fully discharged state.
    21 Sep 2011, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting though...author had no AXPW holdings in May article.
    He now discloses a long term retirement fund position.
    21 Sep 2011, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • His disclosure in May said "Frank does not own any shares in this stock at this time, but has an open order to buy at the 200-day moving average as part of his long-term IRA investments."
    21 Sep 2011, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Actually, it's the positive anode that's being (amazingly) tested, which never, ever by any battery company, has before ever been done. The cathode always wears out first. So why test the anode?

     

    Again, I'm not a battery expert, but as I learned at the Investors' Conference, and then wrote in the first Axion Insta, that fact I found incredible...and now somewhat beguiling.
    21 Sep 2011, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • The testing so far shows that the carbon electrode assemblies don't degrade at all and the life limiter is the anode. While the PbC has more than adequate cycle-life for automotive and hybrid rail applications, utilities have a hard time wrapping their minds around anything less than 7 to 10 years, which is a challenge for all battery systems. When you're talking to a utility, there is no such thing as too much cycle-life or too long a calendar life. That's also the reason for the 100% DOD cycle-life testing.

     

    Ultimately utilities have to think in terms of "what can we sell the PUC?" rather than "what can we sell the board?" That accountability to outside regulators makes them far more conservative than most businesses because if they don't position an investment properly, getting that investment included in the rate base can be a challenge.
    21 Sep 2011, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • John,
    You raise an interesting point about the utilities needing long life batteries. But what do they use now? If its lead it doesn't last long. They test lithium, but know it is very expensive. Why would they pass on PbC? Maybe the PbC provides little improvement over old fashion lead for this application. Doesn't sound like it to me, but I am not in that field
    21 Sep 2011, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • Utilities don't use batteries except in highly unusual circumstances. Telephone companies use billions of dollars of batteries per year to keep their systems up regardless of what happens to the grid, but most utilities are too cheap and constrained by regulation to adopt storage quickly.

     

    Globally 99% of all utility storage is pumped hydro. The most commonly used battery by is sodium sulfur. Lead-acid and NiCd have been used in small installations and testing of lithium-ion and redox flow batteries is ramping, but it's the barest of beginnings.

     

    http://bit.ly/qwEQLH

     

    There is basically one utility company, AES, that's seriously testing lithium-ion for grid based storage and that seems to be as much politics as practicality. Most applications beyond frequency regulation and short-term renewables integration are cost sensitive enough that battery solutions are very difficult.

     

    http://bit.ly/mWKsEv

     

    There will be many years of testing for technical merit before the utilities get down to the business of deciding whether the economics work. There's a lot of potential out there, but it's a very long way from being a business. I'm confident the PbC will get its share of testing projects. Then it will be up to the battery to either prove or fail to prove its technical and economic merit.
    21 Sep 2011, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Ener1 is at .16. What a fabulous story...to have shorted it. 4.20 to .16 in a little over six months!
    21 Sep 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Shorts are easiest to identify in the rear view mirror and while I don't have any qualms about saying a stock is likely to head south, I don't have a big enough pair to actually pull the trigger on a short sale. The dynamic just seems wrong to me.

     

    In a long purchase, my investment amount is the theoretical limit of my loss, and if I buy the stock right the loss potential is usually far more limited. The upside potential, on the other hand is only limited by the quality of my stock picking.

     

    In a short sale, my maximum potential gain is the price of the share I sold. But if my picker was way wrong and the trade went the other direction, I could lose multiples of my initial bet.

     

    Call me a coward, but I'll leave the shorting to guys with stronger spines.
    21 Sep 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » HTL: How about an under/over today of 40,000? An hour in, and only 1,000 shares traded?

     

    I'll take the under.
    21 Sep 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Shoot, I can't fade that! My take is the same. With the bid/ask spread @ 4 cents, I don't see narrowing until afternoon and then only grudgingly.

     

    But at $0.57 bid, I'm really tempted to shoot @ $0.58 and see what happens.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2011, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • I'll take the over since neither of you seem willing to, but it's a bet I may lose. In any event, 10-day average volume will likely be at or below the channel minimum after today.
    21 Sep 2011, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Can't resist some friendly smack talk...you're not doing well in our little contests so far, John. Believe only 5000 shares have traded since before I went out shopping well over 2 hours ago. We passed by your $1.00, 9/16 guess. Exide is clinging to $4.50 support, would have to be up almost 300% to cross your March finish line.

     

    I can already smell that Wooden Angel Porterhouse!
    21 Sep 2011, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • I'm seeing 32K now so my over for today looks pretty safe. I figured the 9/16 might have been a bit early, but I'll still be closer to the date than you.

     

    I'm sure we'll both enjoy the steak, but I'd much rather rely on the weighing machine to hit my $15 target than the voting machine to keep the price down.
    21 Sep 2011, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • "I'm seeing 32K now so my over for today looks pretty safe"

     

    Careful John! These folks have demonstrated an ability to just stare at each other for *very* long times.

     

    I'm still thinking < 40K.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: It just hit 40K+ You win!
    21 Sep 2011, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • I got my over, but just barely so far. The staring always seems to abate a bit in the last hour of trading. I'll upload my volume charts before I toddle off to bed.
    21 Sep 2011, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Congrats! You won today's cyber bet, John. That and a cup of coffee...

     

    I've heard you speak of $10 before, not $15. I like that kind of thinking!
    21 Sep 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • He's getting used to us, Maya, loosening up just a bit.
    21 Sep 2011, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • I think if you check back through the last couple concentrators you'll find a couple places where I talk $12 to $15. Actually I just found it in this concentrator so the search is simple.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Sep 2011, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • I'm really beginning not to trust the closing price on a lot of these stocks. There definitely seems to be a trend for investors to make small buys just before closing to make it seem that the stock didn't lose anything for the day. I was watching JCI a lot today. It's been down over a dollar for most of the afternoon, yet it "closed" at even because someone made a buy just before closing for more than a dollar more than the previous sale. Axion actually did something similar as it yo-yo'ed between $0.57-0.6. With all the bears out there, its seems investors are doing anything they can to prop up their stocks so they don't have multiple down days on the record. IMHO.
    21 Sep 2011, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • The 10- and 200-day average volume chart isn't enough different from the one in my Instablog to merit a new entry. The 10-day volume spiked up to a peak of about 384,000 on the 16th and has dropped like a stone back to 173,000, which is pretty much the baseline of the volume channel. It may fall a little more, but I wouldn't be surprised to see volume and price move up tomorrow or Friday.
    21 Sep 2011, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I thought you were referring to Axion with an eventual $15 price target.

     

    Rats. Got "cornfused" on which bet was which. Think I just ate some bad canteloupe.

     

    Anyway, the "hope" is that Axion some day gets to $10.00.

     

    The "bet" is about XIDE getting to $12 to $15 by March 2012.

     

    Speaking of 2012, I just emailed Don Udo's in Copan, Honduras, to reserve a suite for the 12/21/12: Ending Of The World Fiesta. I'm looking to book it for a little over a month.

     

    DoubleGuns just booked his today.
    21 Sep 2011, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • LT: Good eye. It's also possible that it's a market maker positioning, whatever that means. That's why whenever I see "odd" moves I check "Time & Sales" for the individual trades and/or the 1-minute chart.

     

    There are a lot of stocks that have the symptoms you detected.

     

    hardToLove
    21 Sep 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • >LabTech ... It is a time honored practice know as "Painting the Tape".
    21 Sep 2011, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • "LabTech ... It is a time honored practice know as "Painting the Tape".

     

    Turns out, it didn't work. The after hours selling brought the price right back down -$1.47/share. Problem with after hours selling stocks...it's harder to "paint the tape" for them.
    21 Sep 2011, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • >LabTech ... Quite true but after hours isn't what shows up in the news or on the open. If a broker wants to push the price around it is easier to do after hours or in overseas futures. Sometimes the price movement just before & after the close is buy/sell on close orders (on open in the morning) from brokerage and/or mutual funds. Nothing works all the time.
    21 Sep 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • And let us not forget day traders, which do a lot of by at open and sell at close. But I have now idea how many are in a stock like this one.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2011, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL ... Yes we do. I can assure you that there are no day traders using their margin to buy/sell AXPW unless they have a death wish. A swing trader ... maybe ... but that is a push because where the company is in its development and the chart sucks.
    21 Sep 2011, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • I think AXPW is going to close very close to yesterday's volume. So I'll bet 45,000. As for the price, since there just isn't anything new under the sun and we haven't got a clear date for something to happen, I'd think the price is going to go down to .59. That would be my hypothesis.

     

    I've been reading you guys all along. I do find you very interesting. I'm a firm believer in Axion's PbC. I just hope that John's claims will materialize. He does make a convincing case.
    21 Sep 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome Sonrisa!

     

    The $0.59 is one of the ranges we called for a short while back - $0.57-$0.59. We were hoping that it might find a bottom there and we got close, $0.555, so far.

     

    That *looks* to be a near-term bottom ATM and seems to have entered a short-term consolidation. But that is within a falling trading channel we called for and until it breaks out of that channel we can't have much confidence about near-term direction.

     

    There's no doubt about the long-term prognosis ATM. I think no doubt will enter unless some milestone is unexpectedly extended out (NSC?) and/or they suddenly raise cash when it was not expected (I.e. contrary to what they said their plans were).

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Sonrisa: If we include after-hours (AH trades) you also hit - 50.47K!

     

    Congrats!

     

    HsrdToLove
    21 Sep 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): JIC anybody else sees the low of $0.57 and exclaims "OMG", be aware that it was a single trade of 557 shares.

     

    So no need to get your panties in a bunch! :-))

     

    Other than that, our low was $0.59 - we still look good ATM for very little downside. But (queue the "Jaws" theme http://bit.ly/nPpUob;NR=1&amp;feature=... we still need to get out of this falling channel before it drags us down!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2011, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): DJ reports Form 4 for Quercus sales of 55.5K @ $0.60 9/16-9/21.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2011, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Allentown-based International Battery announces a modular, high density 24 volt battery that the US Marine Corp is testing for advanced ops in tactical military vehicles. What follows is an extracted paragragh with some technical data. Full article provided in the link below:
    .

     

    Pennsylvania-based International Battery is a leading manufacturer of large-format Lithium-ion cells and energy storage systems that incorporates the company’s Battery Management System (BMS) that performs monitoring and balancing at the individual cell level. International Battery’s energy storage systems offer superior high temperature performance, over 90 percent efficiency and more than 4000 cycles at 100 percent depth of discharge. The system with an efficient electrical bus and low thermal management requirement allows for compact packaging and excellent energy density. International Battery is involved with various fuel saving programs including the U.S. Marines’ Ground Renewable Expeditionary Energy Network System (GREENS) as well as the Hybrid Advanced Microgrid Power System (HAMPS) which several branches of the military are adopting.

     

    http://yhoo.it/ohMy8l;.v=2
    21 Sep 2011, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Maya. Now isn't that interesting? "low thermal management problems", "4000 cycles at 100% depth of discharge". Notice that they never actually say the battery system for the Marines uses Lithium ion cells. It sounds like they did, but if you read carefully they did not.

     

    I like the feeling of this announcement! PbC; available NOW! Why wait for Li-ion promises that may never work? :-)
    21 Sep 2011, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » SHB: That was my take, too. And why I extracted that particular paragragh... to leave up to you teckies to take it to task.
    21 Sep 2011, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » "Boston Power: A Rising Star, Or The Next Solyndra?"

     

    Forbes article states Boston Power raised $125M from private equity investors anf the Chinese goverment. The capital raised is to continue to develop lithuim batteries. Forbes argues that Boston Power may be either too late, or too small to get in the battery game in a big way:

     

    http://onforb.es/npkSih/
    21 Sep 2011, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • With so many companies in that space the shake-out down the road is going to be awesome! ... And devestating to a great number of folks I fear.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Sep 2011, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » At least Boston Power didn't pull a Saft shaft on us taxpayers.
    21 Sep 2011, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Don't know if anyone watches Solar stuff here, but Power One (PWER) who makes power inverters for solar, wind and energy storage is getting hammered as if no one is going to ever need a power inverter again. I just bought some today. Its cap is 568M and they have 278M in cash alone. revenue this year is already over 500M and estimated EPS is $1 throught the first two quarters it is .41 eps. Needless to say it is so cheap in my book I think Benjamin Graham would buy it, and they are a well run american company. Can't see the downside over the next six months...unless all renewable energy falls off the face of the earth.

     

    AXPW looks very solid at .60, might be able to queeze in some at .58, but there is/was a sizable ask order at .615 of 66k shares yesterday that I saw peek through during trades, might not be there anymore. Hopefully someone just chews right through it this week.

     

    cheers
    21 Sep 2011, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • >jakurtz: re:Power One (PWER)

     

    Reality is, wind turbines and solar PV are the two largest users of DC to AC inverters and those markets are doomed. Also, this is another area where the Chinese can steal the technology and cheap copy the product.

     

    The one possible happy spot is that Capstone (and no doubt other) microturbines need an inverter to change the DC alternator output to AC for distribution. So that is a possible new market, although still tiny compared to solar and wind.

     

    If someone would package up 10kWh (and multiples) of PbC batteries with a BMS and sell it as a "storage solution", there would be another market for medium power inverters. That WILL happen, and probably soon. Once the "off the grid" types learn that there is a good solution, with a 10+ year life, they will start buying. Storage IS the big problem with "renewable", intermittent power sources.
    21 Sep 2011, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • >Siliconhillbilly ... As a person that spends his day hanging out at a company named "Inverter Designs", I have to have you qualify that. Maybe in a particular size inverter that might be true but the inverter market for DC to AC is huge and is in so many industries I couldn't begin to guess which is the largest. My guess would be transportation & lighting. Although it's not growing right now it isn't really in recession, just slow.
    21 Sep 2011, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • >DRich: You are correct. I saw the obvious connection to renewables and disregarded other possibilities. I need to reign in those hair trigger responses :-)

     

    It would be interesting to know what percentage of over 5kW inverters are used for solar PV and wind turbines.
    22 Sep 2011, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • Buying opportunity today? Whose got the cojones? (or the stupidity, I am not sure yet which I have.)

     

    UUUHHHH Daddy, 100k block?

     

    looks like I am bold. I didn't change my GTC order of .55 so I picked up 5k shares just now. That's a great mistake if the world does not burn.
    22 Sep 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Through 09:45:59, largest block 47,255 @ $0.555 so far on my "Time & Sales" panel.

     

    Another @ 22.5K $0.55 and 15.5K @ $0.55 at later times.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Sep 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Another 47.5K block $0.51 @ 09:57:34.

     

    Two similar size. Quercus?

     

    Let's see if that's the "Last of the Large" today.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Sep 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • It was nice to see that the stock did rebound to $0.55 after those $0.51 sale blocks. But it's going to be a bloody day in the markets, that's for sure. Great day to buy, but I've got no liquidity left, so now I just sit and watch and hope that not too many of the shareholders get itchy sell fingers.
    22 Sep 2011, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » On a macro level, my thinking is that we may test the August lows. Come mid-October, the weak hands will be shaken out, and those with longer term investing goals will hold, and add during those lows. What might push us lower than the August lows is the lack of buyers. If this happens, we're in deep trouble, as credit will further tighten in Europe, the dollar will strengthen, and commodities will plunge further.

     

    When it comes to Axion, and even though I don't think Axion moves relative to the greater markets, I believe Quercus today sold off a little more than usual in reaction to Bernanke's usage of the word, "Significant."

     

    Anyone shagging some shares today will likely look back in about three to five weeks and be happy they pulled the trigger today.

     

    I have a GTC order in for $0.52 in the gamer account, and another, if things get really crazy, for $0.44 in my brokerage account.
    22 Sep 2011, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Bite your tongue!

     

    Actually, I figure any volume is good volume because while I may not be able to identify the sellers I think I have a pretty good handle on who the buyers are. We've been seeing stock moving out of weak hands and into strong ones for a long time now and the puddle just keeps getting smaller. At some point supply and demand must prevail, but I always want that to happen yesterday.
    22 Sep 2011, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Adding AXPW on the dip...
    22 Sep 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ugh! What a day. Next Concentrator~~~this way----->

     

    http://bit.ly/nOhCr7
    22 Sep 2011, 12:59 PM Reply Like
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  • Axion Power (AXPW) announces Dec. delivery of batteries to Norfolk Southern for new all electric yard switcher. Shares up 9.87%
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