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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 22: Beginning Nov. 19, 2011 189 comments
    Nov 19, 2011 2:27 AM

    This is ERIE! You are in the car with the driver watching everything that is happening. It is in Jananese, but you don't have to understand it to realize the effects of the Tsunami.

    This is the first time that I had seen this one...Amazing...

    ...............................

    The Japan tsunami - View from a car.

    Hard to believe the photographer had the presence of mind to video this and not worry about dying. Several things that were interesting was that many of the cars and trucks still had occupants inside, the windshield wipers continue to wipe while the video was being made, these people had no warning that a tsunami was coming in, the image stabilization worked great on the camera.

    http://www.wimp.com/japanesetsunami/


    ####


    BTW: Fantastic stuff in the last Concentrator, everyone! Thanks!

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Comments (189)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from DRich:

     

    >maxkilmachina ... You said "The PbC batteries are tested in NS Roanoke, VA." . Please explain. NS999 is the test bed.
    19 Nov 2011, 02:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Of course, there is always an honorable mention each week. Was quite tasking not to decide to post this chimp shooting up the camp. This brief vid is absolutely hilarious:

     

    http://binged.it/ufLIHO

     

    Hat tip to my pal Gary, the one-armed Armenian pizza delivery guy, for providing this humorous vid.
    19 Nov 2011, 03:00 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the video, Maya.

     

    Up until about a month ago I had found all the tsunami footage to be fascinating novelties. But then I went to Nicaragua and had a near-drowning experience. Now clips like this one are absolutely terrifying to me. I think that's a good thing because nature is a far more powerful force than most of us like to acknowledge.

     

    Reminders of the power and immutability of forces beyond our control are particularly important at times like these. Perhaps it would make us think twice about such tempting but vain ideas like electric cars, AAA-rated tranches of bundled sub-prime mortgages, and currencies backed only by the full faith and credit of reckless and irresponsible governments.

     

    I wish everyone running for office could have their reality checked by a near-drowning experience.

     

    D
    19 Nov 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    Images like those show that mother earth does not need a whole lot of protecting from the politically powerful. Over millennia mother nature has had her own particularly vicious ways of dealing with things like overpopulation and unsustainable lifestyles. I have no doubt that the pattern will continue and humanity will end up in a more sustainable place. I just hope that I'm moldering before Ma does her next round of spring cleaning.
    19 Nov 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    Wow! on the Video. I wish I knew what they were saying. I hope the driver made it out.
    21 Nov 2011, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Apologies, I didnt get to check out the NS999, didnt get online this am, although I think I was at the Juniata yard,,I didnt see any action.
    19 Nov 2011, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Hope to pick up 2500 shares next week early in the high .30's. Probably should have wire transferred for quick availability but decided to just ACH the money (takes 3 days to be available) and see which way the wind blows over the time to clear. So far so good. We'll see what the first of the week brings. Dry powder should be available Monday AM. I'll put in a GTC at .38 Monday AM.
    20 Nov 2011, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if this is a repeat ... haven't worked through all this series

     

    has there been a discussion of either of these seeming competitors?
    (or do we not focus on competitors here?)

     

    1) http://bit.ly/ryWTGv

     

    2) ZBB Energy, e.g., http://bit.ly/rYGAt9/

     

    I know ZBB got a mention late in the previous (21) concentrator ... and I would add that during the 11/14/11 conference call the company said that the 25 kW inverter that actually ties to the Grid would achieve UL 1741 certification within 3 weeks. The inverter is part of what is now called the Enersection and what used to be called the PECC. UL 1741 seems to be a big deal, and I'm not clear on where Powercube stands on that ... I thought it was required for say PJM to allow the system to be connected to their Grid.

     

    ZBB also has a Zinc Bromide (Flow) Battery, but they're quite willing to sell the Enersection without a ZBB battery. To paraphrase the late Al Davis ... just sell baby!
    20 Nov 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    From my perspective, it looks like Princeton Power and ZBB are more in the category of potential partners than potential competitors. Axion is a battery company and its goal is to sell mass quantities of PbC batteries or the electrodes that go into them. Princeton and ZBB are both focusing on power control electronics that can accommodate a variety of battery chemistries to best suit the customer's needs.

     

    One of my biggest personal crusades is to slay the "Silver Bullet Dragon," the idea that there is a perfect battery technology for all needs and applications and that one ring will rule them all. It's just not going to happen and in a $30 billion industry that's heading to $50 or $100 over the next decade, there's plenty of room for dozens of successful companies.

     

    I frequently get a chance to chat with company CEOs about their view of the market. The bottom line is that nobody I talk to is worried about competition, but they're all wondering how they'll expand manufacturing capacity fast enough to satisfy explosive demand growth.
    20 Nov 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    John,
    I was hoping that your thoughts on Xide had jelled into a new article. This EU meltdown has me concerned. The bond market for EU is signaling a significant change in European monetary philosophies. How does that effect the Euro and Xide. I get that AXPW might get a BMW order this year. Good for AXPW. But we need a European AGM manufacturer. But Exide is a company heavy in debt. Does this worry you? Could someone other than Exide provide an AGM plant to produce the PbC in Europe?
    Inquiring minds would like to know your thoughts on these questions?
    20 Nov 2011, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    JCI owns Varta, the largest European based manufacturer of AGM batteries. If I had to pick a dream future partner for Axion, JCI would be at the top of my list. For obvious reasons I'm fairly pissed with Exide's behavior toward Axion and it galls me to have to write good things about it. But when a stock is a gift it's a gift, regardless of how I feel about past behavior.
    20 Nov 2011, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Bosch in Germany advertises an AGM battery with their label on it on their website. I don't know if they make it or not. Searching on AGM battery Europe with Google turns up a lot of battery manufacturers I do not recognize by name but offer AGM batteries.

     

    The whole battery sector has had the crap beat out of it recently. If AXPW ever frustrates you its only down 30% over the past year while Exide is down 70% past 12 months. ZBB seems to have done better than just about everyone else over the past 12 months, but I could be mistaken. and it is up only slightly.
    20 Nov 2011, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... If Axion were to build in the EU, Bosch would be it. Axion has had dealings with them for several years now. I've no idea what that might entail just the companies aren't strangers to one another.
    20 Nov 2011, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    If what you say is true about Axion and Bosch it makes me feel great. Bosch is the largest developer of start/stop systems in the world. What a great partner they would be. But it wouldn't surprise me if their battery was a private label from a major manufacturer.

     

    The amazing thing, to me, are the big names Axion has as friends. BMW, East Penn, Norfolk Southern, etc. When the Exide contract was negotiated TG was saying there were two companies bidding to work with Axion. Axion is like the 16 year old genius that gets accepted into college. If the kid can survive they grow up fast.
    21 Nov 2011, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Interesting Reading.

     

    I came across this old investor presentation by Axion Power. It was TG selling the world ( and me when I read it in 2009) on Axion in 2007. Its a very interesting read now that we can look back 4 years.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Nov 2011, 06:31 AM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    "AEP, American Electric Power, there is an article in USA Today, several weeks ago, they tied on with the Japanese company, [JAS] to build a grid buffering project, with sulfur-sodium batteries at $2500 a kilowatt hour. $2500, that's how desperate they are. Our cost in this I mean I am not going to tell you exactly what our cost in this is, but it's not 10% of that, it's not 5% of that."

     

    This was an interesting quote from the question and answer section of the above presentation.

     

    John, any thoughts on these numbers as of today?
    21 Nov 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    Another quote,

     

    "I would rather talk about cost, because our margins are going to be what we can get quite honestly. Our margin is going to be a value proposition for, that will reflect the fact that it last four times longer. Our costs are marginally higher than a standard lead-acid battery, which in terms of kilowatts $150, lithium-ion is $1200, nickel-metal-hydride $1000 in that range.

     

    Your Prius, hope none of you own a Prius, that's five years old. That Prius battery replacement is going to cost, if you are very lucky and if the electronics mesh, it's going to cost $5000 to replace that battery. If the electronics don't mesh, it's going to cost $8000 or $9000 to replace that battery. We can replace that battery for less than $1000."
    21 Nov 2011, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    This quote speaks to how long the East Penn relationship has been ongoing,

     

    "Well, actually that's in part one of the negotiating points with these battery companies. They are trying to get in line, so they get an opportunity at our proprietary products going forward.

     

    First position right now is with East Penn. Second position, quiet honestly is up for grabs between the two battery companies that we are talking to right now."

     

    Interestingly, and I think John has addressed this before, East Penn ultimately went out and licensed the ultra battery ...
    21 Nov 2011, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    East Penn has been around for a long time and they're trying to cover as many bases as possible. At the recent Asian Battery Conference, there were two presentations on the Ultrabattery that you can download here: http://bit.ly/sJOi0K

     

    It seems pretty clear to me that the Ultrabattery is, as I expected, a step up from conventional lead acid, but several steps down from the PbC.

     

    There is nobody that understands the silver buckshot approach to energy storage better than East Penn. As a result they want to keep their fingers in as many pies as humanly possible so that they can continue to grow the most successful family-owned battery company in the world.
    21 Nov 2011, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    NPR is doing a series this week on the electric car. Even NPR, about the most liberal of mainstream media organizations, is pretty critical of the electric car.

     

    The final quote from today's segment:
    "Not that much has changed with electric cars in more than 100 years. Casey says if they're to be widely adopted, it's drivers themselves — and their habits — that will need to change."

     

    http://n.pr/sqNziX

     

    D
    21 Nov 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,, That was an interesting read. I have been investing for 28 years now, many times with small caps that are devloping technology, and the biggest lesson I have learned,,well, one of em... is that things always take longer than anticipated,,,always. One would think that if you bake this into your reasoning and expectations that it would solve the issue. not so.
    That all being said, I still believe we (axion) is running down the home stretch now,and things should be resolved by 2013 and a serious up swing in place. We will see.
    21 Nov 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    amishelvis,
    I agree with you. No matter how hard I try and be rational about these small caps I always have more hope than brains. But this one is the best development stock I have ever come across.

     

    I went to the PJM website and noted that they have just started an electrical storage update section on their website:
    http://www.pjm.com//~/media/about-pjm/ne...

     

    I sure hope that a new page is updated to it this week about the new axion relationship and the order that comes with it. Another interesting item on their site is the explanatory interactive graph that explains the smart grid. Included is a one MGW lithium storage trailer. It looks just like the power cube trailer. HMMM.
    http://bit.ly/tVoDtP
    21 Nov 2011, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    was looking at the video earlier today and thinking that the lithium and power cube trailer were similar looking - I guess they would be. Read another article in Forbes about AES Energy Storage - the company that owns the trailer and how batteries for trailer are supplied by A123. Maybe AES is looking for cheaper batteries as well.
    21 Nov 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Since PbCs will be 20% of the price of lithium without the "cold weather" issues I'm sure the utilities will be looking at them. The test market projects often run into the millions of dollars. We can only hope, but I can't imagine what other joint project the two would be announcing.
    21 Nov 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    I went to the press release page for PJM today as well. no news there either. Gotta assume it will be tomorrow or Wednesday, with the holiday on Thursday. I will be "really" depressed if they don't have a press release this week!
    21 Nov 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Things that make you go hmmmm...

     

    [Pjm-newsm​edia] PJM NEWS RELEASE: First 'Small Scale' Demand-Sid​e Projects in PJM Providing Frequency Regulation
    November 21, 2011

     

    "To provide regulation service to PJM, demand resource provider Enbala Power Networks uses water pumps at a wastewater treatment facility in Washington County, Pa., adjusting its water pumps up or down to match PJM’s regulation signal. The other project from Viridity Energy uses building load and a behind-the-meter battery in New Castle, Pa. The battery responds to the PJM signal—either charging or discharging as appropriate."
    21 Nov 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    PR types generally tell clients that Mondays, Fridays and the days before legal holidays are bad times to do anything you want people to take notice. So if I were a betting man, I'd bet on tomorrow.
    21 Nov 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Here's the link.

     

    http://www.pjm.com/~/media/about-pjm/new...
    21 Nov 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    The link will only take you to the front page. The PDF is down on the left side of the page.
    21 Nov 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Very interesting, magounsq...from a proximate to Axion scenario.

     

    Great digging!
    21 Nov 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    So who is Viridity Energy?

     

    http://bit.ly/v5ohew/

     

    Viridity Energy
    Viridity Energy is a smart grid technology provider. Its customers are large energy consumers with a need to increase energy efficiency and decrease energy costs. They include: colleges and healthcare centers, commercial and industrial complexes, utilities, and all levels of the government and the military/public sector.

     

    The company’s VPower™ platform solution enables customers to dynamically shift and balance energy load, integrate advanced energy technologies and convert existing energy investments into new revenue streams.

     

    Viridity Energy helps organizations achieve sustainability goals and contribute to the greater good by stabilizing energy price fluctuations. Headquartered in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania, Viridity Energy was founded in 2008 by former executives of PJM Interconnection.

     

    Viridity Energy is a separate entity from, and not to be confused with Boston-based green IT firm, Viridity Software.
    21 Nov 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LabTeck: Conshohocken, PA, is about 10 miles from where I live. Hmmm...
    21 Nov 2011, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    I find it fascinating that the PJM press release referred to the Axion PowerCube installation as a Viridity Energy project. Viridity is backed by Intel Capital and has an amazing string of accomplishments if you glance through their news release section. Their team is strong as a garlic milkshake and has very deep PJM roots.

     

    Unless I'm reading this very wrong, PJM just quietly told the world that a joint venture between Viridity Energy and Axion Power is providing small scale frequency regulation services for the PJM grid. It's not a plan or a proposal, it's fait accompli.

     

    I think I ought to buy a bigger turkey because there's a lot more to be thankful for today than there was yesterday. Now I'm really curious to see what Tom has up his sleeve for next week ;-)
    21 Nov 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    As I read the limited press release, it looks like PJM is using Viridty to manage the PowerCube at New Castle, and in doing so, they are using the PowerCube to add or subtract power from the local grid as needed to smooth things out. So the PowerCube doesn't have to leave New Castle for this test, but is being controlled by Viridity as a direct tie-in to the local grid from there.
    21 Nov 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Road trip!!! :-)
    21 Nov 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Interesting to note, that Dan Scoli over on Yahoo had mentioned that when he was at the shareholder's meeting, and went for the tour of the plant, someone, while describing the PowerCube, had said that it was build for a PJM order, and that he thought they said it was a done deal. I always assumed he misheard, since you wouldn't have thought it was a done deal until PJM took delivery, but apparently they didn't have to take delivery because they are using Veridity to run the test right there on site!
    Of course that brings up the question...is PJM/Veridity paying for the Cube, or is Axion supplying it for free to use as an in house test? I would have thought we would have noticed the cost of the Cube showing up in sales on last Q's report if they had bought it?
    21 Nov 2011, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    I suppose we'll find out more next week when Tom promised an Axion statement explaining the opportunity presented by the PowerCube.

     

    Since Axion is an industrial power user in its own right, it may retain ownership of the PowerCube to track and prove the economics for a similarly situated power user, e.g. a potential commercial buyer of a PowerCube. The last few minutes of the presentation made it pretty clear that Tom sees the PowerCube as a NOW product. I can imagine any number of tie ins that would make the product offering more compelling, but will have to wait patiently through the holiday.
    21 Nov 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    John...unlike you to exhibit this much immediate emotion (re turkey) without digesting (pun intended) more information.
    Must be my Irish cautionary heritage.

     

    That said, it should be an interesting EOM.
    21 Nov 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Kind of funny in an ironic way, is that right now feel pregnant, feel like I'm going to break water at any moment, and yet the very baby we are all commenting about, I stood inside of on June 20th. The Power Cube.

     

    Hoping this is one of two major announcements shortly coming, NS being the other, as I don't expect the hat trick of "fast tracking" BMW occurring until next year.
    21 Nov 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mayscribe ... So what's the guess for the date that Axion breaks the buck?
    21 Nov 2011, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    did't HTL have an 11/20/11 date?
    Closest to the hole?
    21 Nov 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    While I go out of my way to avoid contact with Axion, I know almost all of the pre-2008 stockholders and my ear is about as close to the root of the grapevine as one can get. I don't discuss rumors, but that doesn't keep me from hearing them.
    21 Nov 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Didn't do so well with the last one, eh? ;-)

     

    I honestly can't figure a best guess.
    21 Nov 2011, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Right or Wrong, it's a fun thing to do. This is typical for my spec stocks though. Small, obscure PR announces "Great Leap Forward" and the market is worried about something that hasn't been a surprise to anyone .... in like forever.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DRich: The reason why it's so hard to predict has nothing to do with Axion, but more about macroeconomics. As mentioned, I just bought some more Axion today via my Wells Fargo brokerage account.

     

    My broker, a senior advisor, is quite humored by the success of the Axion Concentrators, and ate up all the latest news popping up since the Axion CC, especially the news today about Viridity.

     

    Usually, my broker has a pretty good idea about which way the market will move during the next quarter or two. He is as clueless as are the rest of us. Today was the first day I have ever sold stock since getting back into the markets post-Lehman, with the idea of shorting the market, and to create some $ to pick up a little more AXPW.

     

    Usually, as he pointed out, when liquidity comes out of the market, it's the lower priced shares that get hit the hardest. That's why it's so darn hard to get a clear sense of when Axion will pop to a buck per.

     

    So many cross-currents out there right now.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but I don't think it makes a buck on the news. The distressed seller(s) have still been in the market, AFAICT, and still have a lot to dump.

     

    They did get smarter about "presenting" their offers though and that did allow us to move up to the high $0.3x range.

     

    I was thinking that NSC would be the announcement. The PowerCube was completely below my radar.

     

    'Bout the best I could claim was my thought of an announcement before T'giving. Small consolation though.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1106) | Send Message
     
    This is very interesting to me. Anybody have the specs on the power cube?

     

    The version talked about was 500KW which would be equilavent to .5MW correct? Anybody have an idea of how many PbC's this would be and therefore the upfront cost of these things?

     

    I'm trying to compare to Beacon who it costs $70M to get 20MW.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mayscribe ... I'm with your broker on being lost in the ozone again. There are just sooooo many bad choices to be had. The most encouraging thing I read today was the Spanish govt. nationalizing 3 small bank instead of TARPing them out with more sovereign debt. To me it's about time someone, somewhere told the private sector to step up or the Swedish solution (which I believe is the logical Capitalist solution) will be implemented. I know the EU banks function differently ... but come on.

     

    For Axion the race is really on to get some receivables into the bank before the credit markets freeze. I'm glad they have no debt but the last time management was as lucky as they are good. I'm figuring a 1-2 Q recession is in the cards next year if the powers that be don't go crazy and monetize, else .... I don't know ... This macro is just plain nuts. If we were all younger and come out the other side alive, we should be the best investor class of the last 500 years.
    21 Nov 2011, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » mrholty: Half megawatt is correct with the PbC (with the HT30, the tractor trailer hauling Power Cube is a full megawatt).

     

    I am not positive, but I believe 1080 PbC batteries are what the PbC Power Cube consists of.

     

    If true, at $250/PbC times 1080 batts for one-half megawatt, which figures to be to be $270,000 (not including the tractor trailer bed, software, wiring, cooling sytstem and storage racks, delivery charges, etc.) Base price for a full megawatt would then be $540,000, times 20 to equal $10,800,000 for a 20 megawatt system. Way cheaper than Beacon Power, even with all the missing costs mentioned above.
    21 Nov 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    HTL...far be it from me to question your market technical prowess and the distressed sellers' status (I qualify as a novice), but any further announcement from PJM (with the AXPW name) this week...and TG having an opportunity to further expound upon next week, might just stir things up enough 4Q11 to at least start an ascent.
    21 Nov 2011, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    I agree, but the wager was when it would hit a buck. And the bets were made before Special Sits started their dumpin, IIRC (unsure 'bout that).

     

    As to questioning my market prowess, I do it all the time (still early on the learning curve) and I need the reinforcement of someone else also questioning it. Otherwise I might think I was wrong about that and begin to believe I really know more than I now think I do and that might be hazardous to my (financial) health.

     

    Having said all that, when you combine bottom-feeding long-term sharks, like we have here, with a large holder that really wants to get out of their position, our actions actually encourage the lower prices because we *know* the large seller is here, we are more patient than the large seller (usually) and until the news does appear, there's likely not a lot of new entrants on the buy side.

     

    I took out a price level once before to get things moving up, but there wasn't a 1M-2M holder on the other side of that trade. I've considered attempting it several times the last couple of weeks, but saner thoughts prevailed, thank goodness.

     

    Anyway, as you noted, when the news hits and if it is really significant, buyers will come crawling out of the woodwork... if the Eurozone and "Stupid Committee" doesn't scare the pee-wadding out of everyone and their brother.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2011, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    For what it's worth, Dan Scolnic over on Yahoo, who first suggested that he heard that the PowerCube was a done deal at the investor's meeting, said that he was told the price to PJM was $1.5 million. Don't know what that was supposed to include, but he got the first part right so I'm inclined to believe him on the price.
    21 Nov 2011, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LT: That price Dan Scolnic suggested on Yahoo! for a tractor trailer load of PbCs seems to be about correct--if they are going to order two, giving a full megawatt. We have to remember that the remote monitoring software has to be pretty expensive. Of course, this is also based on conjecture; none of us really knows how much a PbC really does cost; $250 per?

     

    But a nickel gets ya a dime that the peripheral expenses I listed above have to be in the 30-50% range over the cost of picking up a "drive through window" PbC.

     

    Pretty sure Dan is wrong about one tractor trailer bed of PbCs costing $1.5M (he may have heard the cost for a HT30 bed of batts for a megawatt?). The smoke is clearing about all the facts we do not know...and, I have before been wrong.

     

    But, if Dan S. is correct, and if my memory is also correct about the Power Cube consisting of 1080 PbC's, than the $250 per PbC is then off by 100%, which would through wrenches into all cost analysis (conjectured) studies throughout the brief history of this Concentrator.
    21 Nov 2011, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    John - and right you were:
    http://bit.ly/v0VmZs

     

    Gonna be fun to dissect this.
    22 Nov 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I'd bet on .85 buy April 1. Far as I would go for money, but $1 before the capital raise not out of the question by April 1.
    22 Nov 2011, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    Well, having the cube in operation offers some potential for faster progress. My thinking is that it won't take long to start capturing both major and minor data points. Assuming the are positive, that opens the door for more frequent PRs that highlight the results, mention "other customers expressing interest based on results so far", etc.

     

    Now I don't think this would violate the "keep your mouth shut and deliver" philosophy. As the power cube does deliver (my presumption), it should be important to TG to get that information out there for both the marketing benefits and the desire to get pps higher before the next capital raise will be done, which is his stated goal.

     

    He also has an ally in Veridity and PJM - both have a vested interest in getting successes publicized. A success throws open the door for more aggressive variable generation pursuit by the utilities and grid managers.

     

    All I'm suggesting is that we may see appreciation faster than expected.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    Me too... I find myself saying: Softly, Softly, Catchee Monkey
    21 Nov 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    My comment was in response to LabTech's comment:

     

    I will be "really" depressed if they don't have a press release this week!
    21 Nov 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • zumppi
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    I own some AXPW. However, I am not up to date with the stock. Why has the price plummeted lately (after the March/April peak)? AXPW has underperformed IWM during the last 6mo, 1 year. Is it just high beta ? Anything to to be worried about in the long run?

     

    PS. My huble thanks to all the contributors here. These concentrators are very valuable and indeed the discussion is much much better than in many of the spam-laden discussion boards
    21 Nov 2011, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    There have been two large holders selling very large amounts of stock since March. Collectively the accounted for 13% of Q1 volume and 22% of volume in Q2 and Q3. One seller is a private investor who put about $400 million into a portfolio of public and private cleantech companies just before the 2008 crash and is having to sell its liquid holdings to provide survival financing for its illiquid holdings. The other is a family of funds that seems to be getting hit with redemptions because the size of its portfolio has fallen by almost 25% this year.

     

    Mercifully the private investor's sales will be more limited going forward and it looks like the family of funds will be out of stock by year-end.
    21 Nov 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    White House Honors Viridity Energy CEO Audrey Zibelman as Champion of Change

     

    News|Press Releases on Nov 15, 2011

     

    In light of the latest government subsidy fiascos, I make no judgement...just an fyi.

     

    I assume Viridity is private?
    ENOC also lurking in the background.
    21 Nov 2011, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, Viridity is not publically traded.
    21 Nov 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just bought another 25K, time stamped just after 3:14PM, with 19.5K, then 5K, and 500 shares filled last. All for $.38. Not worried about one or two pennies, as my broker advised.
    21 Nov 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Can't blame you, I bought 12.7K @ .37 over the last two days. Makes me wonder how much of the company our group owns?
    21 Nov 2011, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    My ACH hasn't cleared yet##@$@!!. Tomorrow. Sure like to get my next buy at .37 or less. I wonder what prices will be Wednesday afternoon? The determined sellers aren't letting up. Might take a shot with a GTC at .36 thru close Wednesday assuming the funds are available tomorrow AM at the open.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Good for you Maya! My 20K order @0.35 wasn't filled. I set the price low because of the panic selling of the market, but seems AXPW is able to hold on at the high 0.30. Tomorrow I will see if I am still able to get some at 0.37 or 0.38.
    Congratulations to all who have their order filled today!!
    21 Nov 2011, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » KentG: Really. Good question. I expect we're in the millions of shares held as a group. If I have not previously welcomed you to the Axion Concentrator, I do so now.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Maya. I've been around since before "Note and more..." was published. I actually bought my first shares over a couple years ago around $1.40 a share. I don't comment much but am an avid follower of axpw, JP, and these concentrators as well as a hoarder of axpw shares. 90% or so of my shares are avg price .55 per share. This is my fast track early retirement plan and I feel very, very good about it.

     

    To all,
    I can't thanks all of you enough for the information I've learned from these concentrators and their contributors. We will get rich together.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    Well, we have to exclude JP to get a fair assessment of "the group", no?

     

    I presume his holdings would bury us all several times over.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2011, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    HTL I agree and I hope he has that many.
    21 Nov 2011, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2357) | Send Message
     
    I find it instructive that the PJM-Viridity testing of the PC occurred on site at Axion. That implies to me that other businesses could place a PC on site and run it directly for their own savings on peak usage and/or day-night electricity cost differentials.

     

    But might they be able to partner/contract with an "energy quality integrator" (my name) as part of a larger power quality control system? That is, Viridity would add it's real time communications and local power control to the PC and run many remote PCs from a central control facility. That could put many MW of rapid response "electricity buffers" on line, but distributed in location. That distribution might be VERY advantageous at easing load variance without pumping lots of MVA thru a single line, as to a single location power quality facility. Think about the 100 flywheel Beacon site as an example of a one site system.

     

    Could companies play financial games with the local electric supplier to help defray the capital costs of a PC? Could there be a monthly payback that exceeds the payment on the loan for the PC?

     

    I suspect that any financing would depend on the creditor understanding and believing the long useful life of the PC.

     

    This is speculation, of course, but it looks possible that buying a PC could have a rapid ROI for very little actual space or effort on the part of the industrial company that owns it. I like that very much!
    Combine the PC with a local microturbine generator and you have actual distributed electrical generation of the finest kind. With local natural gas availability, it could kill the need for new coal plants.

     

    AXPW and CPST, merging electrons for the betterment of my portfolio ;-)

     

    21 Nov 2011, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Silicon,

     

    If you read Viridity's webpage, you will see that you are basically describing their model. They supply the management system, someone else supplies the batteries (Axion), and they integrate it all together with things like renewable energy systems on the roofs of the companies they are serving to offset their capital costs and supply energy to the system, while keeping PJM as a base load to make sure the company is never without power.
    21 Nov 2011, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    "I am sure the automatic "cuts" to be imposed over the next 10 years are just cuts to future increases and not real cuts to present spending".

     

    That's basically what Greenvironment P.L.C. does over in Europe with Capstone turbines to. Their software allows them to make "mini-grids" with remote control and dispatch.

     

    Part of the DG (Distributed Generation) initiative, of which one of the Capstone Officers is prez, IIRC.

     

    Given that it's already working in Europe, I don't see any headwinds, technically, to prevent its implementation here.

     

    Keep in mind that the batteries make intermitent generation more palatable to the network, so reducing (to some small degree?) the desirability of CPST in some areas and ways.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Nov 2011, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2357) | Send Message
     
    I guess I need to read the Viridity business model :-)

     

    My comment was partly to address the advantage to Axion of having many sources of capital to finance purchase of their batteries. Having a central managing entity (Viridity) to more or less guarantee a market for the benefits of the PC is important.
    All of the solar or wind energy stuff is just noise, but gives any company a "green tinge" if it wants to go that way. The money is in the power management, without subsidies.
    But adding a Micro Turbine is still a big advantage to any company that wants to have the ability to ride out a longer power failure. The MT can allow the plant to function at "idle" after the PC has been drained to allow orderly equipment shutdown.
    If natural gas is available and the MT waste heat is used, the host company can increase its ROI.

     

    The ability of the energy customer to supply substantial ENERGY to the grid has to be a benefit worth something to the grid generation utility. It might allow the utility to avoid adding low efficiency peaking generation, if small distributed generation is widely implemented.

     

    Anyway, it opens up lots of interesting possibilities and a large potential market for my favorite battery company.
    21 Nov 2011, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    OK tech type guys. Help me understand how this market is a 47 Billion dollar market.

     

    Axion built the power cube. A .5MGW power supply. They charge the PbCs at night at cheap rates. During the day they feed off of those batteries when the plant is in full production using electricity during the day at high rates. If the plant doesn't need the power it goes back into the grid. I get the idea. But up to now the cost of batteries has been greater than the long term cost of building new power sources.

     

    I also realize that PJM is using ( leasing, buying) the power cube as a test model. I suspect that they are planning to order more to test in different temperature zones and different loads. But as a long term market why wold the PbC be cheap enough to overcome the utilities objections to battery cost.

     

    As a Final question. Is PJM just grasping at straws or have they jumped on a truly breakthrough technology that is cheap enough to be a really cool solution to the power smoothing dilemma.
    21 Nov 2011, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    You just reminded me of something. While we are dismissing the green energy part of the equation let us not forget that the Axion test "does" include a green energy component. There's a SolarTree sitting in the parking lot! So not only can they run the battery test there and show how Viridity can manage it with the local grid, they can also show what parts you can add to supplement the system like a SolarTree!!
    21 Nov 2011, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Makes one wonder if the Envision Solar project is a triad of strategic partners between Viridity, Envision Solar and Axion Power.

     

    BTW, I saw two solar trees at the Axion plant...has it been verified who made these trees?
    21 Nov 2011, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1106) | Send Message
     
    My understanding of the size of the utility market has been through the eyes of a recent BCON shareholder. The FERC Oct 21 note the expectation is that companies who can respond in 6 seconds should get a premium. I haven't seen pricing but it was expected that they would get a price to provide stability which may be equal to 2x the cost of peak payments. Beacon had estimated $8-$11M in revenue annually for 20MW.

     

    Using the low end of $8M for 20MW, that means you are talking about $200k/500kwh. If the cost to Axion for a system of that size is $270k plus monitoring, cabling, etc, lets say it costs $400k. If they sold it for $750k (1/2 of $1.5M price tag) that is pretty good margin which should cover monitoring, etc but more importantly for a company to buy something for $750k that could produce a return of $200k and an return of under 4 years. Assume its has a useful life of 20 years, that is a very profitable business. Now, Beacon's math has been high by a magnitude of 3 for their entire life but its a decent starting point. If that math works, I'm buying a couple of powercubes as a business opportunity.
    21 Nov 2011, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    June 8th, 2011
    Axion Power Facility Site of Envision Solar Groundbreaking on Electric-Vehicle (EV) Charging Enabled Solar Tree® Structures

     

    A release issued by Envision Solar reports that the installation will enable Axion Power and Envision Solar to learn more about the characteristics of solar energy in the region, and how to better tie solar energy to the Axion Power Cube™ storage system. Axion Power plans to take advantage of the Solar Tree® structures to charge electric vehicles during the day with excess generated electricity being fed into their patented storage system.
    21 Nov 2011, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget, for new plants/installations, the value of potentially replacing whatever "UPS" solution they would have purchased.

     

    That's my conjecture ... I don't know how fast the Axion based system might respond ... it may be sufficient for parts of the complex, but not all, and it may be too complicated to split this "chore," but it's a question to be investigated.

     

    I am reminded of all the flooding we've had this year, and the Japanese nuclear plant meltdown due to the physical location of the backup generators. Though obviously there are also issues of how the wiring is done, and whether there's any design that could deal with a partially flooded (immediately and after it recedes) building w.r.t. safety, one wonders just what future creative designs might be required w.r.t. to "form factor." Having a trailer in a relatively low elevation might not cut it from a "UPS" standpoint.
    22 Nov 2011, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    One of the more interesting features of the PbC is that the carbon electrode provides for very fast response. I don't know whether it's computer system fast but I do know that it's speedy.
    22 Nov 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1106) | Send Message
     
    To get the premium pricing to provide stability to the network or grid the items needs to be able to draw or add power to the system within 6 seconds. Officially demand requests go out every six seconds and the key to BCON and the powercube is to be able to respond that quickly.

     

    Like everyone else I was trying to figure out exactly what the news was on this. The only thing I could find last week when I looked was PJM is having their monthly meeting with their individual utility companies in their grid. See Agenda here.

     

    http://www.pjm.com~/media/committees-gro...

     

    The important parts to me as it relates to AXPW Power Cube are:

     

    #5- LOST OPPORTUNITY COST FOR WIND RESOURCES
    This is important as we have discussed on other concentrators wind (and solar) energy is not consistent so for the grid they have to have a base load in addition to wind due to the face that it can change by second. The FERC ruling and the ability of companies to provide power in 6 second increments is very useful and now demand premium pricing.

     

    Most important to me:
    #14- SMALL GENERATOR INTERCONNECTION PROCEDURE

     

    This is reference to this in that this is what we are talking about! 100-500kW.

     

    #8 - FERC ruling is not vuitally important as it has to do with credit reform in the wholesale market.

     

    Like #8, #9 in reference to FERC 1000 is important to AXPW in the long term but not in the short term. FERC order 1000 in simple terms states that FERC and therefore the ISOs have the right to force states to comply with their ruling which while are official orders do not really have teeth. This is major in a 3-5 year view as without it local grids could decide that they don't need to provide or pay a premium for the services that the PowerCube and Beacon are proposing to servce. Here is a decent article on it.
    http://aol.it/tNuXKw

     

    22 Nov 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    I think the real key here may be the way the PowerCube is being configured. It's a behind the meter asset that belongs to an owner who get's power reliability, power quality and demand management benefits from owning the system and using it for his business, but it also provides distributed frequency regulation services to the grid on the other side of the meter.

     

    In the conference call Tom promised more before the end of the month to describe the opportunity. I'll be fascinated to hear what he has to say.
    22 Nov 2011, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... In my typical style, I'm confused. Behind the meter asset? I understand this is good for both sides of the meter. My question is; Who is the ultimate customer here? The utility, the business, a company like Viridity Energy with a lease agreement between the two?
    22 Nov 2011, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    I'm not clear yet, but the customer might well be an industrial or commercial concern that wants its business to enjoy the advantages of:

     

    (a) Electric Service Reliability;
    (b) Electric Service Power Quality;
    (c) Time of use cost management
    (d) electric energy time shift and
    (e) demand charge management
    (f) renewables integration (?)

     

    While billing the grid operator for

     

    (1) area regulation,
    (2) voltage support,
    (3) T&D upgrade deferral (?).

     

    I'm waiting for Granville to say more on the issue, but it seems to me that a behind the meter PowerCube could aggregate a pile of the grid applications I discussed in this article http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    My guess is that Viridity will run the interface between the grid and dozens, or hundreds or thousands of geographically dispersed storage batteries and the grids they serve.

     

    Like you I have more questions than answers right now.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2357) | Send Message
     
    DRich: My understanding is that all three are the "customer". The collateral for the loan to finance the PC initially will come (my assumption) from the company that has physical possession of the PC. I would hope the within a year or two the lending institution will accept the PC itself as the collateral for the loan to buy the PC.

     

    The electric utility or power distribution entity will pay per kW for the use of the PC to "smooth power", by whatever definition.

     

    Viridity Energy is paid as a value added service that orchestrates the integration of many PCs spread over a relatively large geographic area by using telecommunications assets and proprietary software. My guess is they charge by the total kW under their management, not by the kWh actually delivered. They have a payroll to pay and don't have alternate revenue streams. Again, my assumption.

     

    So who its the Axion customer? Looks like all of them. The direct customer is whoever writes the check for the PC.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >SHB ... Could you make that just a little more murky? Practicing, are you, for taking up a political career?
    22 Nov 2011, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Where I work we have a UPS and a Generator. Would the Cube work as a replacement for the generator or possibly a replacement for the UPS with the Generator as a long term backup?
    22 Nov 2011, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Incomplete thought. Used as a UPS for short outages up to size of the cube and then generator kicks in after hour or two? Seems to me it would save on generator use.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2357) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Sorry you didn't find my comment useful.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    I think that's one possibility of several and I don't want to climb too far out on a limb until Axion says more about its plans. A battery that's big enough to actively participate in the power management market while providing better power quality and service reliability for the owner presents a number of intriguing possibilities. For now I think we need to let Axion tell us instead of guessing.
    22 Nov 2011, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • matthewchic
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Then out of pure curiosity, are there any women in this group? Or is this an online community of 100% men speculating on microcaps? Something about the future of everyones investment would make me feel better if there was a woman who also thought this investment was a good idea. Investment decision making research agrees with me!
    22 Nov 2011, 03:23 AM Reply Like
  • matthewchic
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Amishelvis - very funny. Hi concentrators - I'm interested in starting a discussion on how members of this forum are valuing Axion. I wrote a quick thought a couple days ago about looking at the price to sales ratio and JP suggested that it is too early for P/S to be a meaningful metric and YOY growth is more important. At the current rate of roughly 250% YOY increase to net sales that would mean ~$21M by EOY 2012 and $72.5M by EOY 2013.

     

    As we stand the snap shot is:~85M shares,~$35M market cap, $17M assets, Book value per share ~$.16, current share price = 2.3x book, ~We estimate 20% of sales was PbC+AGM but expect PbC products to be Axion's main source of growth.

     

    PbC Products & revenue
    -PowerCube: 1000 PbC per .5 MegaWatt = ~$500K rev per MG
    -Locomotive: 1600 PbC per unit + system = ~$500K rev per sys
    -Auto: 1 per micro-hybrid = $250 rev per bat

     

    Market success per segment by EOY 2013:
    PowerCube: 5MGs (? on what to base?) = 10,000 PbC
    Locomotive: .5% of 24K locomotives = 192,000 PbC
    Auto: .5% of 7.5M projected stop-start vehicles = 37,500 PbC
    = Axion would have manufactured 239,500 PbC's by EOY 2013.

     

    Break it by 80,800 PbC in 2012 (40% of cube/locomotive) and 158,700 in 2013 (60% of cube/locomotive + auto)

     

    Estimate max production capacity w/1 PbC assembly line indicates it's possible. (250 days x 1000 Pbc per day = 250K PbC /yr)

     

    In that scenario PbC sales adds ~$20M to rev in 2012 and ~$40M in 2013 which at 23% gross margin would mean adding $4.6M to income in 2012, and ~$9.2M to income in 2013.

     

    Those figures would be roughly consistent with achieving 250+% YOY growth, counting on revenue from other product sales + service.

     

    The sales targets seem very modest if the next few months announcements tell us that these market segments have accepted the PbC as a viable product in their respective applications.

     

    Q's for the concentrators:

     

    1) Is this the type of revenue growth speculation that concentrators are valuing Axion by? What else are you using to value the company?

     

    2) For those with manufacturing expertise...saying Axion finishes by having manufactured 10,000 PbCs in 2012, is roughly an 800% ramp in product production within the ballpark of reasonable moving from prototypes to fulfilling orders?

     

    3) It seems to me that 2 things need to happen for the forum to see a large increase in share price. 1) Volume needs to go way up to absorb the sellers and 2) management needs to offer very few, or even better, no extra shares in June 2012. Assuming news releases help wipe the sellers out, would any concentrators be advocates of debt over equity financing to continue operations next year?

     

    4) How aggressive does everyone take this thinking to be given the current status of affairs?

     

    22 Nov 2011, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Announcement is officially out, AXPW supplying PowerCube to PJM with Virility.
    22 Nov 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    link:

     

    http://bit.ly/uZNbUI
    22 Nov 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Matthewchic,
    I'll let John and others comment on YOY ramping numbers, since they've got a better feel for it than I do. As to item 3, I would say that we all know that management "is" going to offer more shares next Spring. They've repeatedly said that they can't make enough PbC's with one line to cover all the costs of production and research, even with supplemented sales from flooded LA batteries. What many of us are actually hoping for is that they say they need to raise more money quickly than less, since that would suggest that they've got real orders coming down the line and need to ramp up more PbC lines faster rather than slower. We're also hoping that, if they can point to those orders, that will make the share price go up to offset the new shares. The company has said it won't put out more of a stock offering than they need, and we tend to believe them.
    I would also comment that, while some things will ramp slowly, (ie auto), it is quite possible that PowerCube and Rail could ramp far more quickly. John likes to point out that, before the Green Goat's batteries failed from the last test, there were several rail companies that had orders in for the battery systems. The need is still there, so if Axion and NS can prove the system works to the needs of rail, there could be a lot more sales there in 2012. IMHO
    22 Nov 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    "before the Green Goat's batteries failed from the last test"

     

    Are you speaking of previous battery suppliers or PbC batteries?
    22 Nov 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    The Green Goat was a 2004 -2006 vintage yard slug from Railpower Technologies that wrote orders for 175 units and delivered about 65 before customers started returning them.
    http://bit.ly/sHlXQ2

     

    Axion had nothing to do with the Green Goat project, or for that matter the original NS 999 which also failed from battery problems.
    22 Nov 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Whoa 100k share bid at .36 and I just filled my last 5k shares at .37 to finalize my position. I feel good.
    22 Nov 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    It's rather a refreshing change to have some bid size to battle the pressure from the distressed seller(s).

     

    I'd like to see this hold for a while ... DUH! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I agree that one of the biggest benefits of this announcement is not any price movement but rather increased bid volume to eat up those Quercus and Special Sits shares.

     

    Also, TG said this will be "a great way to demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of the PowerCube". I hope we'll have some metrics that can be discussed at the next conference call.

     

    It would also be nice to hear some projections about demand for this application at the next CC.

     

    D
    22 Nov 2011, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    I'm a little dissappointed as I expected the news to cause a larger spike in price OR volume. Volume is quite low compared e.g. to the day of the CC.
    But I still have hopes that Special Sits is out of shares end of this quarter.
    22 Nov 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    The day is yet young and with volume currently standing at 180,000 shares it's a safe bet that today will be fairly solid for the Tuesday before Thanksgiving.
    22 Nov 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (839) | Send Message
     
    Probably shouldn't be too disappointed that there wasn't a spike on this news. There's just not that many people who know what an RTO is, much less read their news releases. This is great news long-term for the business, it just won't help us much in getting the price up in the short term.
    22 Nov 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    I think it'll take a day or two for the buyers that don't track as closely as we do to evaluate and make a decision. Since, as JP has pointed out, this range and volume is not attractive to momentum and/or swing traders.

     

    So that means the *new* buyers would be prone to DD first and also likely to wait until any pop dissipates.

     

    So the likely buyers in today are folks like us that already know the story and know the distressed seller(s) are on the field.

     

    They'll feel no need to rush in or add more.

     

    That's my thinking,
    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    H.T. Love

     

    Good analysis! I fully agree. I did not expect huge spike today. Good thing is more and more investors are geting to know about AXPW and they are going to start DD.

     

    Happy Day!
    22 Nov 2011, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    847K Volume, not bad at all
    22 Nov 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Patience paid on moving money to broker last week with ACH. Picked up close to 3K shares at .37 on the open and saved the $25 wire transfer fee. Setting up 2500 share trading block. Not big as blocks go, but easy to move in and out I think. Cheapest block I have otherwise is a bunch at .57.

     

    My mistaken belief that Axion would get a DOE award and decent pop truly screwed up my average prices. Special Situations sucked up a bunch of my money during the glide down from 1.27. One account is averaged at $1.00, the other at .65 with the bulk of the shares. Now we wait and wait and wait and .................
    22 Nov 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I have been adding on the dip, collecting shares at $.37 and $.38 mostly. I will continue doing this until they hit $.50 again, at which time I may start trading around my core holding, particularly as it gets into the $.6x area, where my most expensive block of shares lies.
    22 Nov 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    I am not so patient. Got 20,000, half at .39 and half at .40. My average is under .50 at this point. I am hoping for $0.80 or higher by March with NS announcement.
    22 Nov 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Rick> Think that is a good target price for end of March IMHO.
    22 Nov 2011, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (276) | Send Message
     
    Axion Power's PowerCube Battery Energy Storage System Integrated Into PJM Utility Grid
    8 minutes ago - PR Newswire via Comtex
    Axion Power International, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW), the developer of advanced leadcarbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that its PowerCube(TM) battery energy storage and battery system is being integrated as a power resource for the PJM Regulation Market, which serves 58 million people in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia. The use of PowerCube on the PJM market marks the first time an external energy storage system has been integrated into a major power grid.

     

    Axion Power, working in partnership with Philadelphia-based Viridity Energy on this and other projects, will initially participate in the PJM market as a 100 kw resource that will soon be ramped to higher kw levels. As a curtailment service provider in PJM, Viridity Energy will be managing the Axion PowerCube, a highly mobile and scalable 500kw/250kw Battery Energy Storage System.

     

    "Our PowerCube, based on our patented PbC battery technology, is a first of its kind smaller online storage device that will be ramped up to higher kw levels," said Axion Power CEO Thomas Granville. "Going forward, our technology can be configured in building blocks of 1 MW of power for 30 minutes, for PJM applications. It can also provide power quality, back-up power, power smoothing and load leveling in addition to the initial demand response we provided today. We are excited to be working with Viridity Energy and involved in this important PJM project. We see this project as a great way to demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of the PowerCube. This format will be used for wind and solar storage as well as for our oil rig back up power application."

     

    "At Viridity Energy, we are excited to be among the first active resources participating in the regulation market. I want to thank and congratulate our partner and customer, Axion Power International, for being ready to lead the way and take advantage of this emerging opportunity. Axion's innovative battery technology has the ability to provide quicker, more accurate regulation service than other resources do," said Audrey Zibelman, CEO and President of Viridity Energy. "By increasing the compensation paid to fast acting, accurate regulation resources, the FERC and PJM regulation change strengthens the ability of customers to provide a service that enhances the reliability of the grid while improving the competitiveness of electric markets."

     

    A recent ruling by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reduced the minimum participation requirement from 500 kw to 100 kw and increased the compensation paid to regulation resources, paving the way for the use of the PowerCube on the PJM project.
    22 Nov 2011, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (276) | Send Message
     
    Bang I'm in the same boat, I bought my biggest purchase at 1.25, on the way up after the lead acid battery purchase agreement. Unfortunately, it made it to 1.27 and then tanked. My avg PPS is just at .78. Man it woulda been nice to get shares at these prices :-)
    22 Nov 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4218) | Send Message
     
    The PR claims the Powercube HAS BEEN INTEGRATED into the PJM grid for small scale grid backup power. Seems to me that means Axion has a commercial customer. Share price up to $.41 - $.42.
    22 Nov 2011, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    The press release by viridity is more extensive. Link below. If link doesn't work, press release is on their homepage.

     

    http://bit.ly/tov7J3
    22 Nov 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    "I congratulate FERC and PJM for their forward thinking approach, and our partner and customer, Axion Power International, for being on the cutting edge and prepared to take advantage of this emerging opportunity.”

     

    So it appears that Axion is actually the customer, is that correct?
    22 Nov 2011, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    If I read this correctly, Axion will maintain ownership of the PC?
    22 Nov 2011, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    Yes! And "Axion Power International will be able to earn new revenues through Viridity’s proprietary VPower System, which integrates, supports and optimizes the real-time dispatch of distributed energy resources and flexible load in the wholesale market".

     

    That means that AXPW is now generating revenue, albeit small(?) for now, from more than selling battery components, batteries and services. Further, they may be reducing power costs by charging off-hours and then releasing into manufacturing facility when rates would be higher. A good situation all around.

     

    With winter weather coming, it would be nice to see the installation ramped up, but I don't believe that's in the cards at this time. Too soon on several fronts would be my guess.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (209) | Send Message
     
    Trying to paraphrase the Viridity NR stuff into something that can be explained in one or two sentences..... would it be fair to say that, in a commercial situation, this product would appeal to someone who needs their own (large) UPS, as they can offset some of the costs (rather than necessarily making a lot of money), by selling some excess capacity (implying a larger unit than I would otherwise need) back into the grid-regulation market? Such a buyer needs to compare the lifetime monetary benefits with the presumed lower costs of a combined battery/genset solution for their UPS needs.

     

    Or should I see the Viridity-PowerCube as an actual profitable investment in its own right? If so AXPW could perhaps make a case for raising (separate) cash for building these as a revenue source rather than for resale.
    22 Nov 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    While I don't normally post the same core message twice, this one's important. While Axion is using the PowerCube for it's own plant, I think the potential customer is any industrial or commercial concern that wants its business to enjoy the advantages of:

     

    (a) Electric Service Reliability;
    (b) Electric Service Power Quality;
    (c) Time of use cost management
    (d) Electric energy time shift and
    (e) Demand charge management
    (f) Renewables integration (?)

     

    While billing the grid operator for services including:

     

    (1) Area regulation,
    (2) Voltage support,
    (3) T&D upgrade deferral (?).

     

    I'm waiting for Granville to say more on the issue, but it seems to me that a behind the meter PowerCube could aggregate a pile of the grid applications I discussed in this article http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    My guess is that Viridity will run the interface between the grid and dozens, or hundreds or thousands of geographically dispersed storage batteries and the grids they serve. A few years ago distributed small scale generation was a huge topic in the industry. I'm wondering if small scale distributed storage won't accomplish the same goals and then some.

     

    Like most I have more questions than answers right now.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1106) | Send Message
     
    Dave T-

     

    I think you got it. I was thinking of it all wrong. I was thinking of it as an actual investment for frequency regulation of the grid, where it would have competed with Beacon and AOne. This opens, imo a much bigger market. Think of every business that needs UPS (Airports, Hospitals, mfg., etc) you now have a different option.

     

    I worked at the Newark Airport when NY had it several day power outage 5-6 years ago. We (the airline) had backup power to run our jetbridges and ticket counters and not the entire building. The problem was our generator was gas powered and guess how the diesel was provided to the generators from their storage tank, you got it electric motor. Shitty design so that when the initial tank ran empty we were done. The best part of this story is that the building operated by the Port Authority had its generator fail in 30 minutes due to never maintaining the system. The next year the PortAuthority approved $50M of capital spend to redo the entire backup power solutions at the bridges, tunnels and airports.

     

    This industry is very lumpy as people generally ignore it until there is a problem with our grid and then they rush out to fix it the next time. Generac is local to me (#1 I believe for personal home generators) and their sales is lumpy by region but nationwide is large enough to be flat.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2357) | Send Message
     
    DaveT: My understanding of the UPS concept is that the energy storage batteries used for the UPS system are usually on float charge (idle) unless the UPS is actually needed. Probably well below 1% of the time. So typically the battery cost is simply the "insurance premium" and is otherwise dead money.

     

    With this new concept, the cost of the energy storage batteries is defrayed by income they generate. It even appears that the income from integrating the batteries into the power grid as bidirectional power elements, using Viridity as the manager, might actually generate positive cash flow for the owner/user immediately after install certification.

     

    That seems to indicate that the UPS function drops drastically in cost to the owner of the PC. The implication is that many companies that want an on site UPS system, but couldn't justify the capital cost, will now be able to purchase one. Keeping the PC at a nominal 80-90% charge state works for both UPS and power quality functions. I see no conflict between the two uses.

     

    Does anyone see that differently?
    22 Nov 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    "Think of every business that needs UPS (Airports, Hospitals, mfg., etc) you now have a different option. "

     

    I agree. And think of it this way. It's a lot better than trying to convince a lot of EV buyers that their cars can be used as back-up power for the local grid.
    Let's see...trusting back-up to battery packs in an EV or to a 100-500KW PowerCube....Hmmm.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    "I'm wondering if small scale distributed storage won't accomplish the same goals and then some."

     

    IMHO, no. Central generation still has the big negative of transmission losses, discussed in comments to you other articles. Further, breaking of the network (earthquakes, flooding, ...) can disable the grid in so many ways.

     

    I believe the storage solution has a big place along with DG. IMHO, micro-grids, such as Greenvironment already implemnts in Europe, are in our future. With good storage added into the equation the maximum efficiency, lowest cost and greatest reliability against a plethora of assults on the grid results. In a word, "robustness".

     

    But I am a novice in this area, so ...

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    I wasn't thinking of replacing DG and micro grids, but supplementing and strengthening them. Certainly the robustness and appeal of shared use storage resources is not to be overlooked. I'm really anxious to hear what management has to say about their plans and the nature of the Viridity relationship.
    22 Nov 2011, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Numbers:

     

    From the Viridity press release, 'As an example, based upon historic prices, a 1 MW resource could achieve a projected revenue between $160,000 to $240,000 on a yearly basis'

     

    What is the manufacturing cost of a PowerCube? $1MM?
    With a fraction of the $160,000 to $240,000 flowwing back to Axion, where is the value proposition here? Long ROI, no?

     

    Thanks
    22 Nov 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget the savings from charging the pack off-hours and feeding the plant during high-rate periods.

     

    Also, why assume "a fraction"? Viridity likely has a very small overhead cost for the service they provide and I suspect that the majority of the revenues flow to the provider of the storage.

     

    Back when I worked at a very large manufacturing company, we liked a 5 year payback period. I doubt that a single cube costs that much, but even so if the majority of revenues flow back to AXPW and they achieve substantial energy cost savings in the plant, it looks like the pay-back would be in that 5 year time.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » anthlj: Though no concrete data about costs has been released, my best guess of the cost of one complete PbC battery is around $200. Best guess for one unit sold is $250.

     

    Times (again unverified) 1080 PbCs for a half megawatt Power Cube, we get $216,000 for Axion's cost.

     

    If we figure that Axion is selling the PbC for $250, that's a net profit of $54,000 per Power Cube.

     

    This does not include both Axion's cost (and markup) of the platform upon which the batteries lay and are transported upon (a tractor trailer bed?), software, wiring, shelving and a cooling system, all of which costs Axion more, but also items upon which Axion can make addtional profit.

     

    Again, these are only best guesses.

     

    What we do know from other commenters is that Axion appears to be building inventory...for more biz with Viridity, or Norfolk Southern?

     

    Either is a fine option with me.

     

    ####

     

    Seems Special Sitz is pounding back today. Volume picking up to now 546K shares.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... No good news goes unpunished.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    My order at 0.37 filled unexpectedly.

     

    Thanks Special Sitz.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    DRich> and I thought poker was the only game that punished good decisions. Thought I'd done good pre-announcement with a buy at 37 only to watch price fall to .35 and change. Is the only smart CTC order .30 cents?
    22 Nov 2011, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... If these clowns don't stop selling and the macro economy has a credit freeze a GTC of $.15 might look pretty good.
    22 Nov 2011, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Though it would appear from an outsider poker player that we buyers of Axion shares while they plummet would be a hand to fold; we know the deck is "stacked."

     

    Perhaps TG is truly the best poker player of all of us. Because he knew exactly how much money to raise to get his company onward to contract signing deadlines, before his company has to raise money...to expand. That's knowing the odds.

     

    JP: Maybe you are correct about someday me challenging Tom to a heads up Hold'em event. He'd kill me.
    23 Nov 2011, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Picked some up at $.358 today.

     

    Its below there now.

     

    So what's going on?:
    a) Market is typically slow to react to news on stocks trading under a dollar, and we'll see a reaction in 3 business days or so.
    b) This is being viewed as good-news-yet-bad-news as increased operations may mean a need to raise more funds sooner?
    c) This news is somehow disappointing to a large shareholder who is dumping their stock
    d) A large shareholder is being pressured by other holdings to dump their stock regardless of news

     

    Trying to weigh adding more as this price seems absurd but my position is already chunky.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    It would appear that Special Sits has used the good news days to ramp up their selling. I can not figure out the angle as to why they don't take off the good news days and let the price spike a bit on good days and then sell the following day...but it is what it is and can only be done until their supply has run out.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    No ramp up that I can see - they've been in for quite a while.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4218) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, jlyleluce. Viridity's PR puts a much different spin on the announcement. It appears AXPW has opened a small new battery rental revenue stream rather than executing a commercial sale of PbC batteries.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    The PowerCube at Axion is part demonstration facility for potential customers and part money saving and revenue generating installation for Axion, just like it will be for a customer. It has nothing to do with renting batteries and everything to do with reducing the end user cost of protecting his business from an aging grid while supporting the grid at the same time.
    22 Nov 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4218) | Send Message
     
    The potential for what you suggest is certainly there, John, but until the Powercube is owned by other than Axion isn't potential all there is beyond a small revenue stream from essentially renting "warehouse" space for power storage? I don't mean to downplay importance of the news as it is quite promising if Powercube costs are competitive. As I understand the U.S. grid and regulatory regime, the prospective market is quite large and had no chance of developing until FERC authorized small scale storage solutions and RJM certified/approved Powercube connections within the RJM service area. The Viridityenergy link appears to give Axion an incentivized marketing agent for Powercubes.

     

    In my mind, announcement of some Powercube sales is needed to confirm commerciality of the system.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    I agree that future PowerCube sales are the only things that matter. A new and fully functional demonstration unit is essential if you want to be able to show a customer how the system works and how the numbers work, but the additional revenue from power operations on one cube won't make a dent in Axion's revenue-expense balance.

     

    Even so, I wouldn't discount it as insignificant, or somehow less important than the opening of a showroom in the automotive industry.

     

    The thing I find most intriguing about this system is that it straddles both sides of the meter. Historically an industrial user with an energy storage system had to justify the costs based on the value to his enterprise alone. Likewise a utility that was contemplating an energy storage system typically evaluated the system based on the economics of a particular dedicated purpose. There has been a lot of talk about how aggregating revenue streams on one side of the meter or the other could speed adoption.

     

    It appears that what Axion and Viridity have done is develop a system that can aggregate benefits from both sides of the meter, meaning that the user's primary incentive for buying is solving his own power quality and reliability requirements, but the ability to aggregate benefits from the other side of the meter make his economic decision easier by reducing his total cost of ownership.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    All I can think of is CCR's old rock song, "Who'll stop the rain?""
    22 Nov 2011, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    A while back a minor discussion ensued in one of the comment streams about larger-than-residential electrical customers (say small factories or a farmer) having to pay the grid not only for the actual electricity they actually use, but also a hefty flat-rate surcharge just for the grid connection, IE for the nameplate capacity of their service... Now if such a factory or enterprise could, by buying and using one or more Powercube(s), reduce their own anticipated peak power demand needs from the grid, could they not then get by with having a lower nameplate capacity for their connected service thereby saving even more money through not having to pay such a hefty surcharge for say a 2MW connection when maybe all they need with a powercube integrated is half that? Maybe they only need that full 2MW for short periods throughout the workday, periods during which a charged powercube onsite could sufficiently augment to carry the load... then when that full load is reduced, the powercube recharges over time.. the customer now never needs to draw that full 2MW or whatever from the grid, they can scale back their service, pay a lower flat-rate surcharge for their connection and.. and.. mo' money! mo' money!...
    22 Nov 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    Demand charge management and time shift are a couple of the potential direct benefits to a commercial PowerCube user. They are, however, just a small piece of the puzzle.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (839) | Send Message
     
    +5k @.35

     

    Wish the CC would've been next week
    22 Nov 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    Hej all of you.

     

    Been following this concentrator for 4 days now. Did not know about it before, although I have been following Johns articles for more than a year now. Thank you John for introducing me to Axion over these many articles. The info in this concentrator gave me the last info I needed to make the decision to go into Axion.

     

    It was me that placed the 100K purchase order at 0,36 today. Seems to have been executed.

     

    Some days ago there was a discussion here about how to value Axion. My simple calculation some months ago was: 20mio USD estimated turnover in 2012. Thats about 0,10 pr share (using 200 mio shares as worst case basis). Based on experience with other similar companies I will not pay more that around 3 times sales, i.e. 0,30 USD. Therefore I did not purchase before.

     

    Thank you to you all for very valuable information shared here.
    22 Nov 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (428) | Send Message
     
    Welcome and I appluad you. You have spent about the same USD as I, but have many more shares. Congratulations.
    22 Nov 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Congrats on a very shrewd purchase. I am averaged at nearly twice your price so I envy you. I'm coming to the next party a lot later than I came to this one.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    I took a glance through "Viridity in the News" on the Viridity homepage. They are working on several projects that potentially could include a PbC element, i.e. VPower, if Viridity and Axion are working as partners on other projects.
    22 Nov 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    One thing we can count on: if this first application proves out, and it shouldn't take long with the instrumentation Veridity must have to manage all this, companies tend to quickly repeat what works. They have familiarity, a proven base equipment, a "showcase" installation, ...

     

    And it fits in a standard 52' trailer, which ought to be a dime-a-dozen right now, which makes it easy to add/subtract and re-locate.

     

    Personally, admitting I'm an optimist here, I wouldn't be surprised to see follow-on orders in much less that 6 months. Winter should provide a reasonable stress test and there might be an urge for some folks to get it up before the summer A/C demand hits the grid.

     

    All conjecture, but if I was a pessimist I wouldn't own it now would I?

     

    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    Since relationships with Axion seem to have a significant history before we ever get word of them, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Viridity has been working with Axion on the PowerCube for several months and already has a very good idea what it will do.

     

    I've seen what it takes to get a grid connection for generating assets in Texas – lots of money and about a year of work. The announcements said that entire process is complete and the PowerCube is currently providing FR service to PJM grid. The planning, testing, validation, permitting, system design and programming did not happen overnight.

     

    Maybe one of our fellow travelers can make a better educated guess as to how long Axion and Viridity have been working together in stealth while the project came together.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I really need to set up my Adobe files for quick search and keep them on the computer I'm using. If the memory serves, didn't TG mention in a CC that Axion was "pursuing" (?) grid applications in 2009 and in 2010 mention grid application "relationships" (?).
    22 Nov 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    They've been working on the PowerCube for a couple years now. In his discussion at the tail end of the CC Tom spoke of several false starts and lessons learned. Given how long it took another client to build, permit and get the interconnect for a 5 MW turbine in the Houston area, I have to believe the principal relationships have been in place and maturing for at least a year if not longer.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    If I am not mistaken, Viridity started business in 2008 and they are relatively close to New Castle ... maybe they have known about each other since Viridity's inception?
    22 Nov 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    For as useful the power cube is in the States, I would think it might be 10 times that in a third world country. Thinking Mexico/Africa where they have rolling blackouts to supply a small city.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4218) | Send Message
     
    HTL - "Personally, admitting I'm an optimist here, I wouldn't be surprised to see follow-on orders in much less that 6 months."

     

    :-) Call me super optimist. I'm hoping the Axion inventory build was an early indicator of reason to expect follow-on orders before year end.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "And it fits in a standard 52' trailer, which ought to be a dime-a-dozen right now, which makes it easy to add/subtract and re-locate."

     

    Better yet a stack-able container (various sizes). It has become very popular to build into a shipping container. They are cheaper than a trailer, easy to move and as I said stack-able.

     

    In the IT world portable optimized data centers (PODS) built in containers have proven themselves as a solution (cheaper and more efficient than engineering a data center in to a building).

     

    Most importantly its very scale-able. You need additional capacity just add a POD. Likewise with the UPS or PowerCube that goes with it...

     

    ... tim

     

    PS Standard trailers are 48' & 53' ;)
    22 Nov 2011, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    I swore I was not going to buy more. I swore I didn't need more. I swore I was overweight and should be "smart".

     

    Added 5k (2x2.5k) at $0.34.

     

    I swear this will be my last add. I swear I don't need more. I swear I'm overweight ... until the next time.

     

    Thanks Special Sits!

     

    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >HTL ... Don't feel alone. I'm over weight for spec stock. I broke my rules today and added at $.34.
    22 Nov 2011, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    We just can't get enough of this Kool-Aid can we? :<D
    22 Nov 2011, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... You ought to be afraid. VERY AFRAID. I very seldom have good ideas or do things to my own benefit.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    I'll tell ya', I don't think anyone adding at these levels will regret it.

     

    I was comfy at a higher average price level, this knocked it down a teeny bit. And I got my mind set to "patience" before I bought the first shares this time around.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    HTL - I feel you're right. I hope there'll be some room left for breathing between when Special Sits is out (could be any day now I hope) and Axion selling shares, which might or might not happen if they find another way.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2357) | Send Message
     
    To quote JP, "Us Axion junkies are all the same."
    22 Nov 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    I just wish I had anymore money to buy shares with! My average of $0.65/share looks very high compared to what everyone is buying it for today. Of course all the poor souls who paid $1-2/share are really hating Special Sits right now.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Haeger
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't resist either and added 28k at 0.35 to my hefty pile.
    22 Nov 2011, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    HTL: me too! I just could't help but add 30k of AXPW today. Now my wife gets really worried and decided to stop me from this kind of "reckless" buying by asking me to surrender password of our on-line brokerage account. I couldn't argue with her because of the poor performance of stock price. Maybe it is good thing. Maybe it will give me chance to add more Axion at much lower price in future. When looking back, what I can say is - I really lack the imagination about how determined the sellers are and how low this stock can go...
    22 Nov 2011, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    Maybe she'll give it back to you when the stock doubles, triples, ... and she sees the difference between a long-term vs. short-term "risk" POV.

     

    With folks like JP advising here, this is a lot less risk than many I've entered.

     

    As I'm moving predominately to cash, as opportunities arise, in some of my others, this one is being held. I've got a couple of small trading blocks, but the core will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

     

    Let's hope your wife doesn't move you *heavily* into treasuries and certain bonds - that's going to be a difficult market not far into the future.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2011, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    No. she won't touch anything, especially AXPW. She just wants to make sure I won't have any chance to put more money into AXPW.
    Happy Thanksgiving!
    23 Nov 2011, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1106) | Send Message
     
    Remind me again how many shares Special Sits and Q still have?

     

    What are their other investments? I bought at the high of the day today, ugh.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    At September 30th Special Situations had 3,152,246 shares and Quercus had 3,372,452 shares. While Quercus is limited to about 850,000 shares a quarter under Rule 144 and has only sold 237,200 shares in Q4, Special Situations has an unrestricted position. Since September 30th, total reported trading volume (including today) is about 6 million shares.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    John, I get confused about the double count for companies listed on BB. When Quesrcus sold 1M a while back it showed up as 1M and they filed a form 4 for 1M -- so no double count that I could see.

     

    I looked up total volume since sept. 30 and found roughly the same number as you. If we say SS accounted for 22% or ~1.3M they should be down to about 1.8M. But then the double counting thing throws me off, do you take into account a double count.
    22 Nov 2011, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    Quercus sold a million shares to a market maker. That market maker then turned around and resold the million shares in 5s, 10s and 20s to retail investors. By the time the trading was done, 2 million shares showed up as reported volume but only 1 million shares moved from the hands of one investor and into the hands of perhaps a hundred investors.

     

    With total reported volume of 6 million shares in Q4, I'd say that 3 million have left the hands of old holders and entered the hands of new holders. We know that 237,200 of those shares came from Quercus. We won't know how many came from the hands of Special Situations till they file their year end holdings report in mid-February.

     

    One thing we all need to keep in mind is that the overall market is pretty psychotic and there are a number of investors heading to the sidelines with their cash. While I want to believe Special Situations has a heavy hand on the sell button, it would be foolish for me to assume that Axion doesn't have other stockholders seeking cover on general principles.
    22 Nov 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So let's speculate an angle yet taken. If Special Sitz has liquidated 1,150,000 shares since September 30, then that leaves them with about 2,000,000 shares left.

     

    At today's closing price of $0.331, the market should only need about $660,000 more to buy these blankety blanks out.
    22 Nov 2011, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I like this line of thinking, Maya.

     

    As I said above, the big value of these announcements for me is that it increases volume and eats up Quercus and Special Sits shares.

     

    There's no telling where pps would be if these 2 weren't constantly dumping shares at any price. I honestly would expect it to be right back where it was last year ($1.25+).

     

    If there is another announcement next week and maybe another early in Q1 2012 then that should lift volume enough to drain all the shares out of Special Sits. I will sing hallelujah when that day arrives.

     

    At that point Axion can hopefully raise more funds from the market at a decent price (honestly, I'd be fine with anything above .50 for now). I plan to be a buyer of that round, assuming it's public.

     

    The money Axion raises in Q1 would then be enough to fund expansion and take us to the end of 2013 at the very least.

     

    Once they raise more money and set about ramping capacity to meet ramping sales, each quarterly CC would be a cause for celebration.

     

    D
    22 Nov 2011, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Very nice thinking Maya. It didn't even dawn on me but, of course, lower price means less capital is needed to buy these fools out. They might be done in a blink of an eye with just a couple well educated decent sized investors. Maybe, things are not so bad.

     

    Thanks for the perspective as I shut down for thanksgiving. Have a good one all!
    23 Nov 2011, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    I would like to add more at these low prices, but don't have the colhoes - as they say in Portuguese.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    The Vol is pretty good today and the stock is decidely down. I get the impresson that the news somehow disappointed.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I get the idea that Special Sitz is trying very hard to get their books in order.
    22 Nov 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    FPA: it's all about distressed sellers.

     

    That's all.

     

    I've been watching Time & Sales closely for some weeks and feel strongly that the majority of sales, and downward pressure is from such.

     

    What makes it work is we all know their situation and have become inveterate bottom-feeders with patience. An they weren't too smart at the beginning (Special Sits I believe) and just offered large quantities. After a few days, they learned to work in smaller chunks, but the patterns and sizes still showed through to one that tracks as closely as I.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30453) | Send Message
     
    I sure hope that's the case because this is no fun at all. How anybody could be disappointed by an announcement that Axion was involved with Viridity and had been working with them and PJM long enough to plan a project, permit it, build it and get it interconnected to the grid is beyond me.

     

    Companies usually hype the hell out of ambitious plans to do things like this over the course of a year. Finding out for the first time that the work is done and the battery is making revenue is unparalleled. There's no wishful thinking here, just solid accomplishment with some of the best partners around.
    22 Nov 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1106) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely could be. One could have interpreted TG statements on the call to mean a large, large announcement on say something the size of cash flow break even.

     

    I doubt it due to the size of the volume today vs since the call.
    22 Nov 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Mrholty, then they weren't listening to the same call I was....Business is dandy, Special Sitz can go suck an egg!
    22 Nov 2011, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    I already answered my own question regarding Axion working on other projects with Viridity by reading the press release again. "Axion Power, working in partnership with Philadelphia-based Viridity Energy on this and other projects..............." Looking at Viridity homepage, they have a project with Con Edison that potentially could involve PbC.

     

    http://bit.ly/rFv4rn
    22 Nov 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    I like that article. And notice the tag line for the city of "Valhalla"!

     

    These projects might lead us there, no? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    22 Nov 2011, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2357) | Send Message
     
    On lower Axion pps.

     

    The "bad news noise" from Europe is approaching the deafening level. I see many tech stocks being sold, apparently to raise cash and avoid any possible big market drop. With holidays around the corner, the pressure to "step aside" and hunker down must be powerful for the BigBoys. Therefore the hint of an upswing in a "dead money" stock like Axion could easily have caused some to clean house of "small cap losers" at a hoped for higher price.

     

    Will January see an upswing in buying, given the news and possible increase in earnings for AXPW? Sigh. Waiting is.
    22 Nov 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Axion's market performance never ceases to perplex.
    22 Nov 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >jakurtz ... Makes a person wonder what kind of "good" news will get the pps down to $.25 or less. Maybe NS announcing a full year rebuild schedule of 30 engines. Maybe a BMW announcement of full product line implementation could get the stock down to $.10
    22 Nov 2011, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Exactly, then when Axion has a delay on a Gen 3 line we should see the price sky-rocket...finally, I have it figured out.

     

    Seriously, though. Treasury sold 5 yr notes at lowest yield on record...risk-off big time.

     

    http://bit.ly/sDCVDw
    22 Nov 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sheesh! This Concentrator filled up fast. Onward to the next Concentrator...with many, many "flashes" from the past:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Nov 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
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