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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Concentrator 29: Beginning Dec. 8, 2011 230 comments
    Dec 8, 2011 11:12 AM
    Given what is going on over in Europe today, or better, what is not going on, I thought it would be timely fun to post the following:


     ALERTS TO THREATS IN 2011 EUROPE : BY JOHN CLEESE

    The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror
    alert level from "Run" to "Hide." The only two higher levels in France are
    Collaborate" and "Surrender." The rise was precipitated by a recent fire
    that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the
    country's military capability.

    The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Libya and
    have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon,
    though, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A
    Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940
    when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized from
    Tiresome" to "A Bloody Nuisance." The last time the British issued a
    "Bloody Nuisance" warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish
    Armada.

    The Scots have raised their threat level from "Pissed Off" to "Let's get the
    Bastards." They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have
    been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

    Italy has increased the alert level from "Shout Loudly and Excitedly" to
    Elaborate Military Posturing." Two more levels remain: "Ineffective Combat
    Operations" and "Change Sides."

    The Germans have increased their alert state from "Disdainful Arrogance" to
    “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs." They also have two higher
    levels:"Invade a Neighbor" and "Lose."

    Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat
    they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels .

    The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy.
    These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy
    can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

    Australia, meanwhile, has raised its security level from "No worries" to
    "She'll be alright, Mate." Two more escalation levels remain: "Crikey! I
    think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!" and "The barbie is
    canceled." So far no situation has ever warranted use of the final
    escalation level.

    John Cleese
    British writer, actor and tall person

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Comments (230)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator by John Petersen:

     

    I FINALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING.

     

    The website that sends my daily horoscope just explained everything.

     

    "For the past five months, Uranus has been stuck in a retrograde cycle, forcing us out of our comfort zones and into a rut. We've known which direction we need to go in, but haven't had the motivation to get started.

     

    Well, I have some good news: The revolutionary planet goes direct on December 10 in go-get-'em Aries, giving us some much-needed energy and enthusiasm that will help us make the most of what's left of 2011."

     

    To make matters worse we've been in Mercury Retrograde since November 24th and won't return to forward progress till December 14th.

     

    The problem hasn't been Special Sits or EZ worries, it's been those pesky stars.
    8 Dec 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    I wanted to work through this exercise considering the stock price and put to rest my worst fears...

     

    What if the PbC turns out to be a dud, nothing more than an elaborate paper-weight? What happens to Axion?

     

    With there existing plant able to turn out AGM and lead acid batteries, could that potentially support the company at current market cap? At $30M market cap, no debt and $13M net worth, cut out further R&D costs, could they produce AGM and lead acid batteries for other battery manufacturers (saving them from expanding out) and still produce enough earnings to support a 30M market cap?

     

    I believe the answer is yes and then some, but I would love to hear from people who are a little better with numbers and manufacturing capacity go through the exercise, John?

     

    While everyone works through those numbers, I am going to go buy more stock. :)
    8 Dec 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The New Castle plant has three lines and is permitted for 3,000 batteries a day. Two of the lines make flooded batteries and one makes AGM batteries. I am not positive that each of the three lines has the same daily throughput capacity, but think it's reasonable to assume they do.

     

    Two thousand flooded batteries a day at $50 each represents a revenue potential of $25 million a year at full capacity and $20 million a year at 80% capacity.

     

    One thousand AGM batteries a day at $120 each represents another $30 million a year at full capacity and $24 million a year at 80% capacity.

     

    If Axion was forced to just make flooded and AGM batteries and operated at 80% capacity, it would throw off about $44 million a year in revenue and probably $6.6 million a year in gross profit. If you cut out R&D it could probably throw off a couple million a year in net income and not pay any taxes for the foreseeable future because of NOL carryovers.

     

    At $0.33 per share, Axion's market capitalization is $28.2 million. Of that total $13.3 shows up as hard financial statement net worth. The $15 million difference is easily attributable to the 3,000 unit per day battery plant that we bought for $700,000.
    8 Dec 2011, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » PriceWaterhouseCoopers warns of ticking time bomb with REs used in automobile, energy, and chemical sectors.

     

    [extract] "The chemical, energy and auto industries are in ‘red alert’ over the future disruption of rare earth metals supply, according to PwC."

     

    Full article below, including a list which REs are nearing a critical supply shortage (including...lithium!)

     

    http://bit.ly/vn8imJ
    8 Dec 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    Looks like a Mexican stand off between buyers and sellers today. Volume dropped like a rock. But buyers still timid about chasing and sellers seem to be waiting for higher bids. Exactly what HTL predicted.
    8 Dec 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    It's very interesting how it played out just like he said, I bought 5000 shares at .33 at 11:49 at the offer and then soon as it cleared someone sold a measly 100 shares at the bid of .31 just to knock the price down.
    then volume picked up at about 20,000 sold at the offer of .33
    Someone commented yesterday how market makers of OTC stocks will do that to clear trades for larger accounts...I just bought another 5000 at 12:12...wonder what happens when that last 27,100 shares is gone?
    I think SS may be gone...but that's just my opinion.
    8 Dec 2011, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LT: Yep, that's what HTL and myself are also thinking. Possibly, and this is only a SWAG guess, the past three days spike in volume was a final push by SS to get out of Axion completely, opportuned by both the Verdity/PJM/PowerCube ribbon cutting ceremony, and Brishwain's phenomenal digging that GM is the mystery Detroit OEM.

     

    If this idea bears truth, then we are now entering into a NEW ERA OF OWNING AXION POWER!

     

    Still need a few more days to verify.
    8 Dec 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I look at the size of the bath they are taking and I wonder what they are thinking.
    8 Dec 2011, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Through yesterday afternoon Q-4 volume was 10.4 million shares, which represents 5.2 million shares of selling and 5.2 million shares of buying. We know Quercus sold 237,200 shares, so there's about 5 million shares of selling that can't be accounted for.

     

    Special Sits had 3.15 million shares at September 30th.

     

    The selling in Q-4 has been far more aggressive than it was in Q-1 and Q-2. The total volume has been heavy enough to represent a full exit by Special Situations. The only real question in my mind is how much of the selling came from investors who were spooked by the intense selling pressure.

     

    Given the tone of the comments on the Concentrators, I think most are holding tight and waiting for the storm to pass. With the standoff we're seeing today, I'd give it better than 50-50 odds that Special Sits may be little more than an unpleasant memory.
    8 Dec 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FPA: My painter, sort of in the family, was over here yesterday, painting my upstairs hallway and the broad chimney in the great room. He knows that I have been hoping Axion would continue downward, knows I have been accumulating during the plunge, all while taking a severe beating.

     

    Yesterday, he asked me, so do you still want Axion to go down? I smiled, and answered, "No. Today it bottomed. And I have enough."
    8 Dec 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    FPA, IIRC what JP posted in the past, SS took major profits in their initial (last) round of selling and what they had left was "gravy". So they can sell at any price and make their books look good for EOY.

     

    All their remaining risk in the stock vanishes.

     

    John will clarify if I miss-remembered that.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    I would not be surprised if SS saved a little for the rise up and we do continue to see a few larger blocks that need to be eaten through (it reminds me of piranhas nibbling at a slab of cow) as we move up.
    8 Dec 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Just for grins I ran the numbers using an unweighted average of the high, low and close prices for the periods when we know Special Sits sold and the period when I suspect it sold.

     

    In Q-1 they would have received proceeds of $1,088,500 from the sale of 1,280,000 shares between February 4 and March 31.

     

    In Q-2 they would have received proceeds of $2,382,300 from the sale of 2,984,900 shares.

     

    In Q-3 they would have received proceeds of $820,400 from the sale of 1,354,800 shares.

     

    In Q-4 they would have received proceeds of $1,190,000 from the sale of their 3,152,000 remaining shares (assuming that all sales were made between November 15th and yesterday).

     

    All in they'd have netted $5.5 million on a $5 million investment.
    8 Dec 2011, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I really think that SS wanted out by EOY to clear the books. If you include settlement time, book keeping time, and the fact that no one wants to be working the last 2 weeks of the year, they need to finish NLT tomorrow. Yesterday is even better.
    8 Dec 2011, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I still think TG is well aware of the SS selling situation and will make an announcement AFTER the the share price reaches the steady state - so it can rise without being weighted down by furhter SS sales. Then is much better time to seek additional funding.
    8 Dec 2011, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (426) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the yuks from John Cleese, God knows I could use a few laughs after watching AXPW evaporate these last few weeks.
    8 Dec 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bylo-: What got me laughing out loud was Cleese's bit about the Spanish.
    8 Dec 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    That was my favorite too.
    8 Dec 2011, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    LOL...yea about the spanish... Now the big test when Quercus returns in two weeks. Can we form a consortium and buy Quercus out?
    8 Dec 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Grrrreat post of the Cleese humor.

     

    I hope he does some more when various major turning points are reached.

     

    I love his stuff.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    I need everyone to wait until after the New Year to buy out Quercus. I can't buy anymore shares until I see what my taxes are going to be for 2011. You guys gotta leave me at least a few $0.3-$0.4 shares to buy before the stock goes back up! ;-)
    8 Dec 2011, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Me too on the Spanish comment. It took me by surprise ...
    8 Dec 2011, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    Wouldn't it be nice if next year we could all just give Quercus a call and say, "The Axionistas (even though we are mostly men) will give you $.25 a share right now and spare you the labor of selling day-in and day-out."

     

    That is only 850K in capital for their 3.4M. We will have to setup the Axionista Fund.

     

    Seriously, I think it might work.
    8 Dec 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    We'd have to sell most of our shares to obtain dry powder, I suspect, concurrently having a nasty side-effect of driving the price into the ground!

     

    OH WAIT! Then we could buy back substantially cheaper! :-))

     

    Seems like it would be like a dog chasing its tail though - lots of round and round with little progress seen! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2011, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    Just decided to put in an order for 10,000 at .32. I am not as good a trader as HTL and if we did see the bottom yesterday I do not want to chase it after it is back at .50, or worse, watch it go to $1.50 late next year and wish I had more. Close enough to the bottom for me.
    8 Dec 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    Mayascribe: I didn't want to let your comment near the end of the last Concentrator, just before John's breakthrough explanation, slip by without comment.

     

    I agree with it wholeheartedly. With Axion, I've been much more aggressive about recommending the stock to family and friends than I have ever gone in the past. So, yes, the last few months have been painful to me in this regard. I will also say that while the members of this board have helped give me the courage to buy more of the stock (I've increased my total Axion shareholdings by 35% over the past month), I also know that I'm violating the #1 rule of professional traders about catching falling knives.

     

    John's comment above about the book value of Axion's stock and it's battery plant in the worst case scenario is of some comfort as well. Given the regulatory (environmental) issues around battery manufacturing, I would suspect that expanding an existing plant is much easier to get approved than building new plants. With the rapidly increasing demand for AGM batteries, Axion's $700k purchase will prove to have been very timely.

     

    On another front, KT's point about inverters accounting for 60% of the value of a power cube seems hugely important.

     

    I can understand why inverters are required for solar and wind applications, but why are they needed for storing grid power?
    Whose inverter is in that first power cube? I own a little stock in (PWER) PowerOne, a very beaten down stock, likely due to its exposure to the solar sector. Would PWER be a beneficiary?

     

    Thanks
    8 Dec 2011, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    APM: "I also know that I'm violating the #1 rule of professional traders about catching falling knives"

     

    One must distinguish between "traders" and "investors".

     

    I've advocated, elsewhere to others, that the most important thing is to decide which you are for each stock you consider. You can even be both by having a "core" long-term position, which you don't sell, and "trading blocks" that you use to rake a little profit from to avoid the feeling of "dead money".

     

    For *me*, this is an important distinction - I'm an investor in AXPW who has some trading blocks.

     

    With that, I don't sweat the price drops on the core. It helps me maintain a less stressful demeanor (internally) regardless of what pps is doing.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    "Never get married to a stock" is another rule that I'm afraid most of us would be breaking. Good point, thoguh - HTL. This is not about trading, it's about investing in a company that has phenomenal potential.
    8 Dec 2011, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    apmarshall62,

     

    As I understand Kirk's comments, you need the inverters to switch the power back and forth between the grid, the batteries, and then the grid again (i.e. from AC to DC and then back to AC). And you need inverters that can handle a little to a lot of energy all at once.
    8 Dec 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    My latest missive just hit the main pages.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    This one's fun because it includes a link to a Lux Research webinar that's usually reserved for people far more important than us.
    8 Dec 2011, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » apmarshall62: Welcome to the axion Concentrator.

     

    I am aware of (PWER). But, as I wrote in the past Concentrator or even the one before, I did not note who made the inverter when I stood inside the PowerCube. Axion's COO, Chuck Trego, did point out the inverter, though, and as I recall, it's a fairly significantly sized piece of apparatus.

     

    I had once wondered why the PowerCube was going to be priced at about $1M (when I heard that). If the PbC costs $250 per, and there are about 600 used to make a half megawatt PowerCube, we can see that the total battery cost was about + or - $150,000. That left for me to figure out where and what all the other $850K was used for. We know that there is a elements-proof tractor trailer bed used to house the PowerCube, plus racking systems, wiring, lighting, A/C, software, a computer, a fire extinguishing system, a monitoring camera, etc. Still this did not add up to $850K.

     

    Now I know where the missing ingredient of cost is, and thanks to KT, I now know it comes in the form of an expensive inverter.

     

    I can only offer that the next time I get the chance to stand inside the Cube, my first priority will be to take a mental picture and some notes of and about the inverter.
    8 Dec 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Looks like here's the answer!

     

    http://bit.ly/sZEjSM

     

    http://bit.ly/ub2KpR

     

    Note that their inverters are used in two different projects ... one is PbC and the other is " lithium-iron phosphate."
    8 Dec 2011, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » wtblanchard: Possible candidate the Princeton Inverter is. But this particular one in the article mentioned was used in conjuction with lithium batteries. Pretty close on the specs, though.

     

    Thanks.
    8 Dec 2011, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Maya> Press release says "Princeton Power Systems (PPS), announces today its Grid-Tied Inverters are being used as a power resource for the PJM Regulation Market. The inverters, in conjunction with lead carbon (PbC) and lithium-iron phosphate batteries, will participate in two locations as 100 kW resources to enhance reliability and increase the efficiency of the grid."

     

    No question in my mind from the press release the inverter is from Princeton Power Systems.
    8 Dec 2011, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I should never, ever, and mean ever...read anything while watching a Steelers game!

     

    Apologies, wtblanchard.

     

    Great catch!
    8 Dec 2011, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    Hmmm...we gonna have a bet if your Steelers make it back to the Superbowl to take on my Packers again??? :-)
    8 Dec 2011, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    You are right; this is one of their inverter suppliers.

     

    kt
    8 Dec 2011, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LabTech: You are on. And quite possibly, it would be one of the most hyped Superbowls, ever. Though, I guarantee you, I'm not betting any Axion shares.

     

    Coolest Steelers "ring-shaped" bumper sticker I saw when I was in the 'Burgh for the PowerCube unveiling: Lords Of The Rings.
    8 Dec 2011, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Great find WTB. PbC is a registered trademark for Axion's lead carbon battery. The fact that the release specified two locations tells me that one is PbC and a presently unnamed draft choice will use LiFePO4.
    8 Dec 2011, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    A reasonable explanation as to why they are testing at 100 kW instead of 500 kW (question raised in previous concentrator)...
    9 Dec 2011, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    wtb: "Looks like here's the answer!

     

    http://bit.ly/sZEjSM"

     

    Nice find!
    9 Dec 2011, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Looking pretty much on track today.

     

    An early 49.2K offer at $0.33 has now been exhausted.

     

    It's replacement is smaller offers @ $0.34 and volume is nicely where we expected it to be.

     

    ADVFN data is available again. As of 13:01 the buy:sell is 3.64:1, a velly, velly nice ratio.

     

    Thanks to folks on this board (and from elsewhere?) for their support in this effort! :-))

     

    NBBO bid/ask ATM is $0.32/$0.34, 40K/12K *presented*.

     

    The EOD buy:sell, combined with daily short sales later in the evening, should give a strong indication as to whether or not we are on the right train ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2011, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL: Unfortunately, at this precise time of Axion potentially bottoming, we now have to deal with the ECB macro crap.

     

    So we have seen a big decline today in volume. I expect that tomorrow will offer up much of the same. I also expect the market to do more retracing, which will likely play into the minds of anyone looking to invest long right now in any stock.
    8 Dec 2011, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The third act of this charming political opera began today and by late tomorrow we should hear a rousing rendition of the Kick the Can Chorus as the Germans win this version of the war without firing a shot.
    8 Dec 2011, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I don't believe there is any effect from EZ issues on AXPW AT THIS TIME. Disaster there mght have effect going forward as sales are impacted, programs scaled back, etc. Other than that ....

     

    EZ, IMO, effects traders more than investors, mid and large cap more than micro-cap, members of indexes and major listings, and those included in ETFs (the preferred traders' vehicles these days, from all I've heard, which explains the "everything's correlated" mantra).

     

    AXPW is behaving exactly as we predicted thus far, whether the market was up on the latest EZ hopium or down on the latest disappointment.

     

    Thanks to folks like JP, we knew what was going on with Quercus and SS and I believe we have reliably *recently* predicted AXPW price and volume behavior without factoring in the EZ.

     

    This leads me to believe that my assessment that EZ has little effect may hold water.

     

    In all ignorance and incomplete information, of course.

     

    MHO,
    hardToLove
    8 Dec 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL: I expect there will never be a chance to prove correctly what will happen, because we both are predicting lower volume levels for a period of time, regardless of the macro.

     

    I agree that Axion does not move with the pitches and swales the market brings us, but this bit of the news cycle is rather more extreme than most news cycles.
    8 Dec 2011, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Maya, my theory can never be proven correct because "you can't prove a negative" and I'm asserting a negative!

     

    I'm hopeful that means that I also can't be proven *wrong*. Ego, after all, no matter how well I try to manage it, does stay right there in the background hammering to get out and rule my roost! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2011, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    HTL, your market smarts is making you easy to love. You may have to change your handle.
    8 Dec 2011, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    No chance sir! It was selected based on *my* perception of my wife's view of me!

     

    Plus, we do have to consider that this might be an aberration born of familiarity with a specific stock or two.

     

    In that case, I wouldn't fare so well. E.g. I just made my 3rd (or was it 4th?) foray in shorting the S&P via SPXU. This was my first successful attempt. The prior times I placed very small amounts at risk, realizing "the market" per se, was a different beast. Each time I lost, I noted what I could learn.

     

    I guess in a way its, for me, a lot like a development process: iterative in nature, refining on each iteration.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2011, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Hey all,
    For those of you who are intelligent enough not to spend your days arguing with Sockpuppet and OMY on the Axion Yahoo webpage (unlike me), I thought you might like to read this repost of some comments Kirk T. made today to OMY as he (once again) tried to explain to her why the RoseWater deal is a good one. (Of course it won't make a difference. OMY just argues to argue and will turn anything positive to a negative for her own amusement.)

     

    Anyway, Kirk T. wrote:

     

    "Omy, in Axion-world, I am generally in a bind of knowing lots of things about people's business, and yet not wanting to step on their toes and their privacy or Axion's privacy. You know that. I do not trade Axion stock for that reason, and I do not discuss the price or the financing prospects, or ever recommend a buy. Not once, not ever -- it's that, or get cut out.

     

    For instance, I knew about Rosewater and GM and BMW for years before it was public -- but I did not know Veridity's name -- just the sketch of the application. I know about other famous unnamed-names still, but if it does not come through Granville, I cannot say anything. In the midst of this, much of your sky-is-falling hysteria is driving me effing crazy. It's not the questions you pose, it is the style -- it is clearly intentional, but man, it is both ineffective and hard to even follow.
    ---
    I called Joe Piccirilli of Rosewater, Omy -- I have known him for years; smart, smart man. So I do not give a rat's a s s about your deep suspicions about Rosewater (edited name), because it is just the kind of thing that we need in Axion-land. We don't need some wretched exclusives, we need a ball of fire in moving the finished goods out of New Castle, and in my experience, never will "Joe Pic" take his eyes off the ball, Omy: product sales now.

     

    Rosewater is selling the Power Cube, straight up and with adaptations, and also introducing new-format products that are scaled for other markets, which I have described vaguely, previously.

     

    o Yes, Rosewater is a Newco, but it is almost an adjunct of Axion through long history and trust, and it has solid power systems people involved.
    o Rosewater can make 'Cubes if they wish, or contract their manufacture.
    o Rosewater has business with giants in the works; utilities who are watching the PJM-Veridity deal. They will take time, so Rosewater has immediate prospects too.

     

    Axion needs more "Rosewaters", and so, typically, TG has made sure that prospect is kept wide open. So I suggest that you salute Rosewater, and look for such news more to appear. More for you to fret-yourself-crazy-about is in the works.

     

    But back to Joe... Joe Pic confirmed that the 'Cube is currently 30H battery format, and is moving to the taller 30HT battery format. 16V. So I was right about that, but it was old-news to me when I said it. The transition explains some of the loosey-goosey numbers floating around: a 30HT is a more stack-efficient, more energetic version of the big 30H case. 500 30HT's will do ~650 30H's work.

     

    Joe confirmed that the Cube being discussed was a single 40' container with all electronics and batteries in it. He told me the inverter manufacturer being used -- major league -- and a bit about the degree of customization from their stock inverter. Almost all their stuff is a bit customized. From there, I learn more about the costs on that side. So, Omy: I am not changing what I said about the PowerCube.. it was correct.

     

    o A 16V 30HT system with room for 500 to 650 batteries in it (not saying the exact count).
    o Scalable mildly-custom inverter. Full BMS/charger included in the unit.
    o 1000 KWH / 500 KW-for-30 minutes in a 40'. 250 KWH / 500 KW-for-30 minutes in a 22' unit.
    o Synchronizable design, capable of being ganged-together immediately.
    o Instant reservoir expansion with additional container units
    o Available with or without Veridity utility-command system. Veridity is middleware, profiting from actual utility buffer-use cashflow, but doing that requires tariff-work and systems integration with a power utility.
    o The buffers like the 'Cube can save a lot of money for facilities that are on generators; there are some interesting pilot studies on that done by the DOE; the main issue is cycle life in the batteries, and response time. Remote communities, mines, oil fields, oil platforms and drills, etc. We have some of those in Canada.

     

    The sky is not falling because of Veridity or Rosewater; just the opposite. NS has not banned Axion from the hybrid locomotive market; just the opposite. GM and BMW (and several others) have not written off PbC; they know that AGM is a band-aid, and in fact it is confirmed that they each were working on mild-hybridish projects with Axion as well as ISS projects. The Gen-2 line is not a failure; just the opposite -- it is operating with good quality and can if needed be immediately brought up to speed as Gen-2A and further enhanced in Gen-3. The carbon composition work has not failed; just the opposite -- specs will rise.

     

    kt"
    8 Dec 2011, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Great info LT!

     

    Thank you!

     

    We need to see if we can get this stuff posted here first, since it will be well received and appreciated - no one has a reason to argue with him - just ask (hopefully) intelligent questions and throw out the odd thought or two that may not have been addressed.

     

    OTOH, that might draw folks like OMY over here - a big downside from what I gather.

     

    There's a reason I don't visit Yahoo boards anymore. I know there's some good folks there too, but the SNR is just too crummy.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, thanks for posting this here Labtech.

     

    I visited the yahoo board but I don't have an account to respond to omy, but if you felt like it you could respond to her with the following. I saw Omy was up in arms about Axion giving Rosewater license to manufacture the PowerCube or have it manufactured. She should understand by now that Axion does not want to make the PowerCube, they don't even want to make the batteries that go into the PowerCube. Ultimately, all they want to manufacture is their proprietary carbon negative electrode that goes into the battery that other manufacturers make. This is where there margin will be the highest, since no one else can make that without infringing on Axion's rights.

     

    This also keeps Axion from being a competitor to other battery manufacturers and even other PowerCube manufacturers in the future. The reason Axion makes the full manufactured end product now is only for demonstration and testing purposes to prove the technology out and gain market acceptance.

     

    One other thing about the coming capital raise, which has her fearful (understandably to a degree). Just b/c Axion's market price is in the doldrums does not mean they have to offer investors less than the current price, especially when they can prove they are worth substantially more. An investor or bank will know they are worth more because their current assets including the 15M plant at New Castle comes close to the current market price of $30M. Of course, that can be up for debate, but I think it is pretty accurate and others could chime in if they feel I am wrong.

     

    Good luck over there and keep it real.
    8 Dec 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz,

     

    "She should understand by now that Axion does not want to make the PowerCube, they don't even want to make the batteries that go into the PowerCube. Ultimately, all they want to manufacture is their proprietary carbon negative electrode that goes into the battery that other manufacturers make. This is where there margin will be the highest, since no one else can make that without infringing on Axion's rights."

     

    I've come to realize that OMY doesn't really care about understanding. She says she does, but whenever you can point out that he/she is 100% wrong about something, after backing it up with facts, OMY will just ignore it and go off on another tangent. For OMY only two things matter: 1) trying to prove that he/she is right all the time and 2) arguing for the sake of arguing because OMY finds it fun. OMY likes to put at the end of his/her posts that all her comments are just for entertainment purposes and no one should follow anything he/she says for investment strategies. That way OMY figures he/she can say anything to piss everyone else off while hoping to be proven correct in the end. OMY likes to point out that he/she is a good guesser, so why should silly things like facts get in the way!
    8 Dec 2011, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    Hi, LT.

     

    Correction to that: the smaller unit is 500 KWH / 250 KW-for-30-minutes.

     

    {Yah, Omy was getting to me. After this response, he (yes) complained that Axion had not issued a press release about a Rosewater manufacturing license for the 'Cube -- a bigger blunder than ever, no less. Sheesh.

     

    I noted that Rosewater would probably just distribute the 'Cube and would manufacture sized variants for their other targets, based on the small (yah, you guys figured one of the suppliers out; 'grats) Princeton inverter and on other new inverters.

     

    Omy actual does raise some interesting points, but then exaggerates them and cross-links them with other bizarro thoughts to form a miasma-d'jour of doom. Would not last a day here, but I do wish he'd learn; the finance points do need to be answered.

     

    Recently, he concluded that NS was barring everyone in the world from the hybrid locomotive business because they had filed a patent application broadly covering NS999. As a result, Axion, he concluded, was actually at NS' mercy instead of being their partner -- it was somehow game over for Axion. When I noted that it took me about 1 minute to break the patent, it all became a rant that NS would never file a "frivolous patent".

     

    So the ranting is apparently the objective. But It can never come here. Promise?}

     

    kt
    8 Dec 2011, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » KT: Either so far the detractors are unaware of this thread, or they recognize they will be eaten alive, exposed, consumed, like cow parts tossed into the Amazon River. So far, this column is devoid and pristine; honest, challenging, curious and forthright.

     

    As desk clerk, I encourage all kinds and sorts of opinions. That's how I/we all learn. When/if things get obtuse, or brazened attempts to speak or write the preposterous, then that's when I guess I will reluctantly have to do some moderation.

     

    Totally amazed I have yet to have to make these sorts of decisions.

     

    My hope is that I will never have to.
    9 Dec 2011, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    KT, I was thinking it was the other that needed correcting, but just so I'm square... 500 KWh is the total energy stored but power delivery is rated at 250 KW for at least 30 mins? (which only equals 125 KWh) but then presumably maximum power deliverable drops off on a curve, say like 200KW for the next 30 mins.... maybe 150 for the next, etc.. etc down to 100% DOD... Is that sort of how it goes?
    9 Dec 2011, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The fact that somebody has the power to moderate and an interest in encouraging intelligent discussion is usually enough to keep the trolls at bay. I've had more than a couple comments that I thought were suspect, but I took pains to answer them with a greater than usual attention to courtesy and detail. The result was that the troll pitched low and slow I and my response knocked the issue out of the park. That's the last thing these types want so the trouble makers didn't hang around for long.
    9 Dec 2011, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Kirk,

     

    "Omy actual does raise some interesting points, but then exaggerates them and cross-links them with other bizarro thoughts to form a miasma-d'jour of doom."

     

    Oh, I agree. OMY found the Honda service notice that pointed out the fact that Li-ion batteries don't do great in constant stop-start traffic and the constant recharging at low state of charge damages the battery. And there have been others. But it's so wrapped up in a veil of "I'm the only one telling you the truth and everyone else is misleading you" along with "the sky is falling because Axion doesn't do what I say they should", that the facts get loss in all the noise.
    9 Dec 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The smartest distortions in the world are 90% to 95% truth.
    9 Dec 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    What am I thinking? must be getting lysdexic. Yah, watts is higher. I thought I had written it wrongly.

     

    Tks

     

    kt
    9 Dec 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Ah okay... so my first read was correct.... it should be 500KW for 30 minutes which equals 250KWh total stored energy delivered? If that's the right understanding then it's a higher power/shorter duration device more in keeping with where Lux says the market is heading...
    9 Dec 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2691) | Send Message
     
    481086: Higher kW and lower kWh makes much more sense to me. I was wondering if there was an error or maybe my understanding was faulty ;-)
    That discharge rate seems reasonable, given what we know about the PbC being more of a Power battery than an Energy battery. The carbon composite plate gives it the "capacitor like" high charge-discharge capability that makes it so useful to the power quality and railroad applications.

     

    I sure would like to see the peak "C" rate during a maximum braking event of the yard slug. I am hoping that sort of information will be available within the next few quarters.
    9 Dec 2011, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    Yes, in fact {straps on his "cilice"} there was an error in the original {ow!} all right -- it was just the first part of the models, not the second {yikes}. Followed it by a a nice cut and paste error in the attempt {arrgh} to correct original error. {I gotta go now} Watts is the bigger number.

     

    <grin>

     

    kt
    9 Dec 2011, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2691) | Send Message
     
    Come home, come home KT, all is forgiven :-)
    9 Dec 2011, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Kirk: One of the wonderful aspects of the Axion Concentrator, as well as other Concentrators my peers have created here on Seeking Alpha, is that when someone goofs up, the goof gets corrected, almost immediately. And, most often the correction is either done with benign intention, or presented with a humorous, keen rub.

     

    I call it the Wiki-effect.

     

    BTW: I'm stealing the word, "lysdexic!" "

     

    "Ferpectly" describes some of my writings.
    9 Dec 2011, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    "One other thing about the coming capital raise, which has her fearful (understandably to a degree)."

     

    On the subject of the capital raise ... this is something that has definitely been on my mind as I have argued with myself about accumulating more ... However, looking at it generally, if some large investor wants to get a 10M share piece of Axion, it could never accumulate that type of position in Axion without materially increasing the price ... Does that potentially give Axion some type of leverage to a price between lets say .30 and .60?

     

    Axion doesn't get totally screwed by current market dynamics and the large investor gets a guaranteed price without having to bid up the price?
    9 Dec 2011, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I was pondering along those same lines myself... and also the thought occurred to me that once the details of such a deal were made known, ie that a large investor actually paid *up* for a big block of shares, that the news would elevate the market price fairly smartly for all other shares--to something near that price paid, thereby giving the large investor some level of comfort right away...
    10 Dec 2011, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Today's thoughts are only intended to begin confirmation that SS is indeed out of the market for now.

     

    Buy:sell ratio ended at 3.81:1, an excellent ratio. The buy:(sell+unknown) end at 2.142, also excellent.

     

    The short sales percentage alone can't really be judged as telling us much today. My best guess for the lower percentage short sales today is that some more "covering shares" were received from previous sell orders (that were "naked shorted" at the time) or some sales were broker-to-broker trades (but I do think this less likely).

     

    Combining the slightly lower short sales percentage and volume with the fact that the "buys" outweigh sells *and* sells+unknowns so heavily suggests the market-maker had a limited number of shares "in hand". I draw this conclusion since even though shorting was less than the "normal" 36% we calculated for an extended past period, shorting was necessary to satisfy even the demand in the low volume we saw today.

     

    From all this, I conclude that the distressed sellers are off the field at least temporarily. This suggests that *if* demand has been increased by the Veridity, PJM and Rosewater knowledge that must be out "in the wild", we should continue to see price appreciation for a bit.

     

    It also suggests that if this sort of behavior holds for a little while, any substantive new news should act as a catalyst without fear that the distressed sellers would reappear. But we need a little time to see if this seems confirmed.

     

    We had a higher low and high today, a beginning of a move I think, to a "reversion to the mean" around $0.38 (I think).

     

    When we get there, we might move right on by it or, more likely I would *guess*, bump the $0.40/$0.41 previously demonstrated resistance for a short while. This range is where I would (likely) see the evidence that we are consolidating, briefly, again *if* that's what's going to happen.

     

    As we move towards this range, we could anticipate that volume will stay low, or even fall off a bit more. Notice that today's volume (below) has fallen off dramatically. However, if rather than moving towards consolidation we are starting a run up, we could see increasing volume as price moves up. So the volume/price combination behavior will give us some clues.

     

    Here's the short sales stuff, with a little context.
    1201 TotVol 000304750, Sht 00113950, 37.39%
    1202 TotVol 000114099, Sht 00040049, 35.10%
    1205 TotVol 000790577, Sht 00134087, 16.96%
    1206 TotVol 000923239, Sht 00221009, 23.94%
    1207 TotVol 001074969, Sht 00452620, 42.11%
    1208 TotVol 000140689, Sht 00043843, 31.16%

     

    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2011, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I don't know HT. We have Quercus to deal with in Q1 and while they held volume down to 10% or so a day, who knows for sure what they will do next time around. As much as I would like to think SS is done I can't enjoy any kind of warm and fuzzy feeling until JP looks at their SEC filing and sounds an official concentrator "all clear". The only thing I am certain of with AXPW is everytime I thought I knew where the price was heading in the past I was dead wrong.

     

    Since my investment horizon is 2013-2015 I am thinking beyond the current drama and the capital raise - but I seriously doubt the stormy weather is over - might just be the "eye" passing over us.

     

    My ACH funds transfer was to slow for me to catch the .30 - .31 bottom. It'll post to my account next week. I'm going to let it sit for a while and watch the action next week. Probably put in a GTC buy at .31 to cover myself.

     

    As for OMYOMY I hope Maya while use his death ray on her if she shows up. I can't stand the idiots posting on the Yahoo board, although their are some good posters on it like Indelco and KT.

     

    I need a better snorkel. The one I have leaks water occasionally and I choke on it from time to time.
    8 Dec 2011, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    We just came out of a two-month period where the 10-day average volume fell way below the 200-day average (9/20 through 11/21). At the bottom of the trough, the 10-day reached levels it hasn't seen since September 2010 before the big volume ramp started. I think there's a good chance that Special Sits has sold the balance of its position. If I'm right, the market going forward is not likely to follow the TA rules you'd expect in a normal market.

     

    Everybody who regularly comments on the Concentrators is in a class that I think of as bottom fishers. You put out a GTC order at an embarrassingly low price hoping to snag stock on the cheap while hoping that your order won't be filled. The vast bulk of the buying over the last 18 months has come from bottom fishers.

     

    There's another class of lurkers out there who I think of as coffee shop patrons. Their goal is to sit in the coffee shop reading a paper until one minute before the train leaves the station. They want to be the last one on the train, even if they have to run to catch it. A good example is a fellow I correspond with who said a couple months ago that he was waiting for a high-volume blow off to the downside with a same-day close to the upside like we had on the 7th. As it turns out, he was a buyer on the 7th.

     

    The market activity we've seen over the last two months has been enough to catch the attention of the coffee shop patrons, but most of them haven't left their seats yet. They'll wait and watch for a couple more days or a few more pennies, but then they'll decide it's time to board the train. I've lived through two supply and demand inflection point deals in my career and both of them had surprisingly strong runs to the upside when the persistent sellers ran out of stock.

     

    I think people are spending way too much time worrying about Quercus. I expect them to file a Form 144 sometime next week because the market has had very strong volume for the last four weeks and if they file next week the rules will allow them to sell about 1.9 million shares over the next 90 days. Since that's more than 2x the normal limit of 850,000 shares per quarter, I'd be surprised if they missed the opportunity.

     

    The great thing about Quercus is that they've been a predictable seller and when they're in the market they want to account for 10% of total volume. The reality is that the market is going to need them as a seller over the next few months because most people who bought over the last 18 months are not going to be terribly interested in prices that don't get them a multi-bag return.

     

    After 18 months of willing seller hell it will sound almost crazy, but the next stage will be one where there aren't enough sellers. So Axion is going to need Quercus as a moderating influence to provide a predictable short-term source of supply. It will also need to put additional shares out into the market through a reasonably sized offering to provide additional working capital.

     

    I pray that I'm right about Special Sits being gone with nobody else waiting in the wings. If I am, the next 18 months (or 90 million shares) will be a lot more fun than the last 18 months.
    9 Dec 2011, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    JP, I have trouble with the concept of needing more sellers. As you point out, the company has the chance to raise capital with share issuance. The fewer sellers the higher the price. If the next few months have low volume that could scare potential investors (as you point out was the case in 2009), Axion can point to the trading during 2011 and concern addressed. How can more sellers be an advantage going forward from here?
    9 Dec 2011, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Bang: "I need a better snorkel. The one I have leaks water occasionally and I choke on it from time to time".

     

    LoL! The ancillary benefits of being in (AXPW). Another day started with a good laugh. Thanks!

     

    As to Quercus etc., (haven't read JP's reply yet), I do expect them back in at higher volume. But my belief is that the good news roll has just begun, that it will (haltingly at first) continue to grow and that will provide enough positive sentiment to keep new buyers coming in.

     

    Now, add in the effects of "time", a valuable resource, combined with JP's articles, Maya's concentrators and an itty-bitty company called ... "Google". And I guess I should mention "Bing".

     

    What those combinations provide is an increasing awareness of a heretofore unknown company, and increasingly more-educated "market" in terms of both energy and Axion, and a potential plethora of new investors getting in later than most of us, but at still *very* attractive prices for any *reasonable* growth scenario.

     

    Ergo, IMO (alliteration!), a wave has begun, is building and will achieve proportion substantial enough to absorb Quercus' placements with no more than a hiccup.

     

    And with the discipline they have displayed, I'll be glad to see them here getting better prices for what they must, unfortunately, dispose of. I hope, regardless of my potential benefit, that they are able to sell quickly at high prices so they may continue their efforts in their support of other promising and beneficial-to-society investments.

     

    None of this is related TA. I may be wrong in my assessment, but that's my take.

     

    Now, on to JP's comment to see how badly I've missed.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2011, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Institutional investors love liquid, stable and sustained markets that move predictably and reasonably. When the supply and demand dynamic is out of weight on the sell side you see a situation like Axion's had for the last 18 months. When the supply and demand dynamic is out of weight on the buy side, it's easy for a stock to run to unsupportable levels and then abruptly reverse course. Both patterns set off red flags in the minds of potential investors who are always asking themselves "will it bite me if I buy at this price."

     

    It's always important to have enough sellers to achieve liquid, stable and sustained. For 18 months it's been easy to be bullish because the price has hovered around the 2009 private placement level. I'd hate to find myself in a position where I had to start cautioning that Axion's price was getting ahead of the business.
    9 Dec 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if when Quercus files its Form 144 next week it will spook enough people to let me complete my planned buy next week in the low 30's? What do you think HTL?
    9 Dec 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bang: You may get your chance anyway. I was paying a little more attention to Level 2 time and sales today than I normally do, in trying to see if the bottom really did come in the day before yesterday.

     

    I noticed a few decent sized blocks trickle through; a 20,000 block, a 15,000 block and a 7,500 block. I also saw some pretty large Ask sells, one above 70,000 share range, which I believe was some gamesmanship going on, as it was later withdrawn.

     

    My conclusion is that though I do believe SS is pretty darn close to being done liquidating, I may have been a tad early on the call. Being that I own Axion shares at $1.20 and $1.14, I'm...ahh...good at being a tad early on the call.
    9 Dec 2011, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Bang: CAVEAT: I'm a lousy judge of how people think and react. Having done the necessary CYA ...

     

    It's really too early, IMO, in a potential trend change to *guess* what the reaction might be. However I do believe that most folks that are now investing or trading are better informed, thanks to you-know-whos, have a little longer view and came well-stocked with patience.

     

    I also hope they've read and well understand what constitutes "dilution" or not in JP's various posts - but that's another subject.

     

    There should be some sellers, but if the buying urge is well-supported by many folks trying to get in, the drop should be minimal and easily absorbed with little lasting effect. I believe this will be the case because I believe that the recent buyers are as I mentioned above and will not be what's termed "weak hands".

     

    I believe the price level and volume current at the time of announcement will have a controlling influence - if we are at "high" levels, any sag would be to a much higher level than if we were at "low" prices and volumes. And I really don't expect much sag regardless.

     

    Now, here's the "cool" thing, IMO. Quercus can file and ... wait (I hope). I expect they know what's happening, re PJM, veridity, GM, ..., know there has been a positive turn in both volumes and price, suspect that price and volume *may* improve further when folks return from the holidays (I expect a lull in these as we approach holidays), suspect that there is now a strong core of buyers that will support better prices, know there's an excellent chance that SS is out of the market, ...

     

    And I *hope* they are aware of what we've noted about SS and trends and that we continue to be fairly accurate in our assessments of what's coming regarding price and volume.

     

    All of this might allow them to start releasing later, in smaller initial volumes, and obtain better prices, benefiting them and all but (us?) inveterate bottom-feeders. As time and favorable news or sentiment develops they could increase the volumes slowly.

     

    That, of course, presents a risk to their goals though so I can't say if its a strategy they might choose.

     

    MHO, along with some unavoidable (unfortunately for the reader) meanderings.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2011, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    As an addendum to John's comment, it occurred to me that many of us, including myself at one point, are *totally* naive about both the mechanics of the market (I'm still there, but not as badly as before - if I can unwind much of the DTCC and it's interactions with the market participants, I will feel that I've acquired a significant portion of the education I need on the mechanics) and the goals and behavior of the significant players within it. In this latter area, I feel still *almost* totally naive.

     

    Here's a very brief introductory discussion of that latter topic that I think many folks will find useful. It is *trader* oriented, but for investors, the brief overview offered can provide both better recognition of potential entry points *and* (more importantly?) more restful nights when the stock price seems to be moving against you.

     

    Such as this article have given me the gift of patience, which seems to be a key portion of *investing* rather than trading, although I do both and exercise patience in both.

     

    http://bit.ly/tCoCk3

     

    I would *love* to have links from others that help me further understand this topic if any of you have such. Any on the mechanics of the market would be welcomed as well.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The piece in Investopedia is a very good discussion of how the market works in larger stocks that can draw the attention of money managers, but it doesn't address the issues that are most important in nano-caps like Axion.

     

    There are essentially two classes of public companies – large well-known companies that have an established market presence and trade on the basis of an established earnings history, and small unknown companies that have to work their way up from the minor leagues. Top tier companies have enough visibility that they'll trade on their own merit without much work. Lower tier companies face a daily struggle to build visibility and show investors why they're a good value proposition. One of the best descriptions of the differences I've seen explains that large companies are "bought" by institutions on the basis of performance while small companies are "sold" to retail on the basis of events. Every sold company's primary goal in life is to graduate into the bought class.

     

    Right now Axion is clearly in the sold class because its business is not well-developed enough to hold the attention of a money manger. One glance at the price chart and it goes into his "pass" pile so he never digs deep enough to find the strong relationships with first tier partners that will ultimately be the key to Axion's success.

     

    The lesson I've learned over the years is that a small company must first develop a strong base of retail support. It must then execute well enough to draw the attention of institutions. Once the institutions start paying attention, they buy the stock away from the retail base. I can't tell you the number of conversations I've had with managers over the years who said "I can't buy your stock at $3 or $5, but I'll be happy to move you from $10 to $20."

     

    Unfortunately I can't think of any written resources that do a good job explaining the process.
    10 Dec 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. And I will be happy when I can sell my Axion for $10.
    10 Dec 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    old news from August, but has some interesting names associated with battery development.

     

    http://invent.ge/uKMlAZ
    9 Dec 2011, 04:35 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    This article was from a link embedded in LTs last comment. It is an interesting piece discussing the "Intel inside" sales stategy in the battery business.
    http://bit.ly/thDoqp

     

    I believe that trying to sell components of a lithium battery is different than selling components in a lead acid battery. My reasoning is that LAB manufacturers all know that the batteries are the same and have know it for years. The Lithium space manufacturers all believe their battery is different. Anyway it is interesting to find the discussion taking place.
    9 Dec 2011, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    One of the more interesting bits in the article was the thought:

     

    "The large battery makers also fear losing a competitive advantage. If they license a third-party anode and their arch-rival does the same, their batteries might perform identically. The market would devolve into a price war."

     

    The lead-acid battery business has already been fully commoditized and the technical performance curves of comparable batteries from different manufacturers are basically identical. As a result price competition is brutal because there's no real product differentiation.

     

    The whole idea with the partnering concept was that Axion would pick a couple manufacturers on each continent and partner with them for a niche like automotive. It would then pick a couple of different manufacturers on each continent and partner with them for a niche like railroads, or commercial installations or renewable power projects. If you carry the logic through, the plan gives selected partners a truly differentiated product for sale into a specific niche at a premium price.

     

    We won't know if it works for sure until Axion starts forging relationships, but the possibility that the PbC could be a significant margin booster for future partners is something that shouldn't be overlooked.
    9 Dec 2011, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Actually, I am surprised that new partners haven't already been selected. Its obvious that the large manufacturers already know about Axion. After the Exide debacle Axion is probably just happy as all get out to have their neighbor East Penn as the first American future partner.
    But I'm with you John. If I were a battery manufacturer I certainly would be looking at a way to make my product more profitable.

     

    In fact I would be saying. Hey TG. What can we expect if we loan or invest the money you need for Axions future?
    9 Dec 2011, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've always been leery about putting customers or competitors in a position where they can exercise significant power in a client company because once the camel gets his nose into the tent, the body invariably follows. Investors who just want to profit are far more predictable, even if they're harsher on the terms.

     

    Your last sentence blithely used the word "loan" and sent an evil shiver up my spine because I've come to view debt as a MORTAL SIN in small company finance. My second law of small company finance is "Never even promise to give the money back." It applies to both debt and dividend paying preferred stock because I've never had a client that didn't have a better use for their cash than a debt or dividend payment. I have, however, lost several million dollars in companies that borrowed money when they really needed equity.

     

    Beacon and Ener1 are in the tank today because they borrowed money they couldn't pay back based on hopes, dreams and a desire to avoid the dread spectre of dilution. It's the biggest mistake a company can make until it has sustained and consistent operating income that represents several times debt service cost. My personal bottom line is that if a small company believes it's big enough to incur substantial debt, it's too big to have me as a stockholder.
    9 Dec 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Is it possible that some of the partners have already been 'selected'? Perhaps when they have NS or BMW or whoever placing a full-size order all the other pieces fall into place, such as whose batteries the Axion carbon negative electrode will go into.

     

    I'm also wondering if it would be reasonable to dedicate a negative electrode assembly line at a certain price per unit to, say, East Penn, in exchange for a certain investment in Axion.
    9 Dec 2011, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I certainly understand your concern about debt. Borrowing money on a hope can be disastrous. However, in Axions case it should need money to build electrode lines pursuant to a contract that will make Axion profitable. If profitability is still a few years off ( due to R&D,etc) then I would agree. They would still be needing Equity.

     

    As I think through it even a large Automotive order could not provide enough profitability to avoid an equity raise next year.
    You are right. Shudder at the word loan.
    9 Dec 2011, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    D.M.,

     

    I have begun to analyze the partners that do exist. Think of East Penn ( privately held) and Princeton Power ( privately held). They went with a privately held marketing company ( RoseWater). It appears that TG might be making sure that Axion doesn't get in to deep with the publicly held companies . Private companies that do over $ 50,000,000 per year in business are pretty good partners.
    9 Dec 2011, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Earlier in my life I managed a lumber store for a good friend of mine who ran a multi-million dollar lumber business in South Africa and a more modest enterprise in America. His cardinal rule was cash. He showed me everything in his store and said, "You know who owns that? I do." No bank could ever claim any of it or take it away from him. We as shareholders of Axion Power can go to their plant and point at every product, patent and asset they have and say, "You know who owns that? We do."

     

    I am thrilled about the way they have chosen to finance their operations.
    9 Dec 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    Hi there, Futurist -- I much enjoyed our talk; must do that again.

     

    I think that you are onto something here -- add Viridity to the list.

     

    TG now seems righteously-shy about deals with companies that may try to take advantage of Axion instead of working in synergy. Say those words, and "Exide" instantly becomes the topic, where issues were "rumoured to be", (i) the grant travesty of course, and also (ii) painful attempts to "improve" the terms of the manufacturing license.

     

    With issues like that in Axion's history, it must be a relief for TG to deal with (smaller) companies whose agenda is clear, and actions compatible. There will be more like them, and as you know, I really like East Penn (from my own history with them).

     

    Not trying to shove any words into your mouth, but as a matter of considered opinion, knowing that big battery manufacturers are a "must", do you believe that Exide should continue to have a door open for ...

     

    o A semi-exclusive license?
    o Sole manufacturing rights in a territory?
    o Worldwide distribution rights?
    o Other?

     

    Personally, I bet that the words "sole" or "exclusive" are off the tabIe, and that Exide will have competition in any territory they eventually get for PbC; they have probably used up their "head-start" time, although they do know how to make the line conversion, jig-time. Both sides await, knowing that they may yet need each other.

     

    But again, I think you are right about the pattern, at least for now.
    9 Dec 2011, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    Hi, DMc,

     

    I agree with the general idea, but note that East Penn has Ultrabattery, and may be constrained by that. As a second source for PbC battery-making, I think they are a shoe-in. As a second source for carbon electrode-making (which *will* eventually be required) I cannot think of a better candidate.

     

    More than anything, I dully-think that @#$!# PIPE's should be out and maybe Corporate VC's should be in. Let me test the water on this:

     

    Group: Imagine that in front of you is a red button that lethally electrocutes an SS executive. {Not yet!} .. {No, stop that!, I didn't finish.} Damn. What was I saying?

     

    It's time to cross the chasm, and it would be much easier with bucks and patient consistency, connections, and the backing of a big name. I am sure you have much-discussed this.

     

    kt
    9 Dec 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3662) | Send Message
     
    Hi KT (regarding your quote pasted below),

     

    Are you saying that Axion should avoid a placement (i.e. PIPE) with finance institutions and instead allow a partner in from the energy sector (similar to how Google held a small portion of Facebook when Facebook was still tiny). Also what "chasm" are we talking about; the commercial sales to NS, BMW, etc..?

     

    Finally I assume SS means Special Situations (not Start Stop); yes I have a love/hate with them. I hate them for putting me underwater but I'll love them if these current prices turn into a 10 bagger for us. Anyhow I think SS management will likely get fired when they realize they quit digging right before gold was struck.

     

    >>
    More than anything, I dully-think that @#$!# PIPE's should be out and maybe Corporate VC's should be in. Let me test the water on this:

     

    Group: Imagine that in front of you is a red button that lethally electrocutes an SS executive. {Not yet!} .. {No, stop that!, I didn't finish.} Damn. What was I saying?

     

    It's time to cross the chasm, and it would be much easier with bucks and patient consistency, connections, and the backing of a big name. I am sure you have much-discussed this.
    9 Dec 2011, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Kirk,
    I'm not sure i would make the decision right now for any of the licenses that you asked about. I would let the bids answer the question.
    If I am TG (and I am not even worthy) I have to let the PbC do the talking. If more want it than can have it then I ask "Who wants to build it?". If someone wants to get in the game early ( like Exide did) then I ask them " What are you willing to give to get future rights?".
    But this is all based on the assumption that Axion is the dream machine that all LAB manufacturers want to make.

     

    A more realistic picture is a company that will grow its business one piece at a time.
    1st they will build NS batteries and those large and small PowerCubes that are requested until they get to building 3000 PBCs per day. In case you have forgotten that is about a $175 Million dollar per year production company.
    2nd they might win a large automotive contract that has to be bid out to so some AGM battery company that can produce a few million PbCs per year. In America, that probably will be a friend that saved your behind when the Exide people were breathing down your throat. One flooded lead acid battery contract did wonders for Axions burn rate. God Bless East Penn.
    In Europe it will be interesting to see if Exide wants to play or JCI and other privately owned Battery Manufacturers come into play.

     

    Basically my answer is this:
    If the PbC is wanted then TG can name his game. If other competition lurks then he had better partner up and shore up the long term relationships for Axion.
    9 Dec 2011, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Well I'm not sure at all that Axion will allow another company to ever make the Negative electrode. They might build the plant and staff the plant, but I bet Axion controls all other facets of the manufacturing process. I know that other scenarios exist, but protecting the patent has to be a #1 goal.
    9 Dec 2011, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    Hi, Futurist.

     

    In the big leagues, a sole-sourced component is at a distinct disadvantage. A common solution is to find a "friendly" to second-source the component (carbon electrode in this case) in a controlled manner. It may be literally be required.

     

    That said, I personally don't want to do it for no reason -- and there is no other reason. But if so, who better ?

     

    kt
    9 Dec 2011, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    I have seen enough shenanigans in PIPES for now.

     

    Suppose GE Capital took an interest. Someone who understands the process of commercialization, whose name opens doors, and who has some knowledge and connections in the field. Preferably someone who is not directly a battery maker, or even indirectly.

     

    It would be my favorite right now -- this topic is not being my strong suite.

     

    kt
    10 Dec 2011, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    As long as their partner is based in a region with strong patent enforcement (ie: not China).
    10 Dec 2011, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    I like that answer.

     

    kt
    10 Dec 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    Yes, it needs to be someone trustworthy, in place primarily for big-OEM risk attenuation. Its all been done. A bit of tolling business in exchange for a bit of electrode business.

     

    But Futurist is right, of course, there is no other reason for doing this. It is a future thing, part of big contracts that are still smoke on the horizon.

     

    kt.
    10 Dec 2011, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Here is an interesting article about the closing of APTERA.
    The three wheeled EV that obtained 190 mpg equivalency.
    http://bit.ly/ux66dt

     

    Its all about the money. Even when Google is your initial investor, at some point a company has to be able to perform profitably.
    9 Dec 2011, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    Product too - this design was a joke. Make a hybrid or high mileage car that is otherwise desireable (e.g.Tesla) and sales will follow. The Prius is close enough (barely) to mainstream that it sells well. Off the wall designs are for dreamers... not investors.
    9 Dec 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Don't know if it's just short-term profit taking or SS. NITE exchange *presents* an aggregate 64K offer at $0.35 and bid ask now is $0.32/$0.35 15K/74K.

     

    With a 16%+ rise (@ $0.35) off the low of $0.30 in just a couple of days, profit taking would not be out of the question here. What happens later might add clarification.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I think you are right, just some profit taking and end of year selling adjustments...most trades now are small 2000 sh blocks or so. The big seller at 35 had a chance to move 15-20000 and did not take it.
    9 Dec 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    I still maintain that SS would not necessarily wipe themselves out on the way down, but rather leave 500k or so as steps on the climb back up.

     

    Hopefully, like piranhas we can just chomp at the slab of beef SS lays down at each cent climb up and as people get burnt we won't have sellers undercut SS selling, thinking SS will then dump a large block for a cent or two less and they snag them back up causing the price to drop even more. Buying at the ask price can potentially drive that behavior out.

     

    In all truthfulness I think a lot of bid/ask spread players/gamblers are as much to blame about driving the price down as SS, because they "forced SS" to beat them to the buyer by dumping large loads at cheaper prices. We can't control any of that though.
    9 Dec 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    That's what I noticed just a few minutes ago. I decided that it's the folks you mention.

     

    Add to that: the trades have been predominately buys coming up to meet the offer, rather than the other way around.

     

    Buy:sell ratio at 10:30:57 is 3.628:1. No unknowns - so no "negotiated" trades so far.

     

    Combining all the above, it doesn't have a profile we saw when we thought it was SS doing the damage (alternately, presenting us with opportunities).

     

    All told, just what I would like to see going on. Just need to get at least one $0.36 in today to have both high and low be higher, assuming $0.32 doesn't get taken out.

     

    Hard to judge how volume will end yet. Trades coming up to meet the offer has been relatively vigorous thus far. If it doesn't slacken too much we might exceed yesterday's volume. If we get a higher high as well, we might need to think of a steady crawl up that's doing more than just heading for a near-term consolidation around $0.40.

     

    Time is on our side. I believe those in this link are talking about Axion (and) price per share. Who knew they were smart investors?

     

    http://bit.ly/tGADXt

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    JAK: At these price levels, and the (until recently) volumes, I've had to come around to JP's POV: this stock is not attractive to momentum, day or spread players.

     

    Those all really need high liquidity.

     

    As to SS keeping some, no way to tell. All I do for now is accept that they are apparently out for now and *guess* they would have no reason to hold more since they took ~10%, per JP's rough estimation.

     

    JMO,
    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    I think you are right, HTL. As a younger Aries than you my attention to detail is not as well refined...yet. thanks for the reply.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    Link is to Princeton Power Systems press release about their inverter and PbC batteries being tied into PJM grid. Don't remember seeing a link previously, but apologize if some one already made link.

     

    http://bit.ly/vdOMXp

     

    Also see where Princeton is working on U.S. Army microgrid, but they specifically mention lead acid batteries.

     

    http://bit.ly/sbtCd4
    9 Dec 2011, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    NEW NORFOLK SOUTHERN CONFIRMATION

     

    Indelco over at Brand X made an important confirmation discovery today.

     

    On October 21st, Gerhard Thelen, Norfolk Southern's VP of Operations, Planning and Support gave a powerpoint presentation titled "Energy Savings a Key to Successful Railroading" that discusses the PbC on slide 34 and says:

     

    ➧Batteries Can Not Accept the High Rate Energy Pulse from the Dynamic Brake
    ➧Advantages of Axion PbC Technology Over Traditional Lead-Acid Batteries for Road Application:
    ➨Higher Charge Acceptance Rate - “Capacitor-like” Behavior
    ➨Greater Useable DoD Range
    ➨Longer Cycle Life

     

    I can't seem to post a link that works, but a Google search of the title including the quotation marks will take you right to it. Choose the ict.illinois.edu result.
    9 Dec 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    Nice find.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    I'll give the link a shot. This should get you manuevering.

     

    http://bit.ly/t9PA7J

     

    Hope it works.

     

    hardToLove
    9 Dec 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks, HTL: I did do some manuevering, and liked seeing page 34, as John mentioned, plus the surrounding pages of renderings of the locomotive with batteries, charts of battery performance of the competition, slides of monitoring panels, etc.

     

    Great stuff!
    9 Dec 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Excellent news, John. Excellent! The kettle is beginning to simmer.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    My ACH clears Monday. I'll make another buy at the best price I can get next week. I missed the .30-.32 range with the slow transfer, but a couple pennies higher (or even 3-4) won't break my heart.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I'm mildly concerned about the previous Line on the slide: "Batteries Can Not Accept the High Rate Energy Pulse from the Dynamic Brake"
    Without the context, I can only hope that it is reference to pre-PbC, Lead-Acid batteries.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The previous slide showed the performance of batteries from both Enersys and Firefly that simply couldn't hold up to the strains. I read the presentation as saying that the PbC is an entirely different animal that's well suited to rail applications.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    My take as well.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    My take too. That previous chart kills the other batteries. However, I wish they had a chart showing the results from the PbC batteries on that chart. That would have been icing on the cake.
    9 Dec 2011, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Those charts were from Penn State's testing, this is from October so they probably did not have the results from Penn State on the PbC yet, and would not release the results until after they have made their order anyway, I would think.

     

    I agree about the line "Batteries Can Not Accept the High Rate Energy Pulse from the Dynamic Brake" is more or less referring back to the original 999 failure and then countering with what he thinks will be the near-future solution, the PbC. I would have loved to hear the words from Thelen's mouth as he presented though.
    10 Dec 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Here http://bit.ly/rBYLyG is an article on PowerGenix, and their Nickel-Zinc battery. It seems they are a few years back on the curve. Targeting stop/start , Axion is mentioned.
    9 Dec 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    amishelvis

     

    We discussed about this article before. Chek this concentrator.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thanks.
    9 Dec 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Yes but I don't remember any discussion on the last paragraph...

     

    "PowerGenix is also looking beyond car batteries, and plans to sign a licensing agreement with a “large, U.S.-based, publicly held battery company” to use rechargeable nickel-zinc batteries for uninterruptible power supply and backup power applications, Squiller said. He wouldn’t name the potential licensing partner, however."

     

    There are only two that I know of - XIDE and JCI...
    10 Dec 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    My nominees would be Enersys and C&D, which are both far more active in UPS and backup power than JCI and Exide.
    10 Dec 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    “large, U.S.-based, publicly held battery company”

     

    ..Since C&D is/soon will be private, does that make Enersys the most likely?
    10 Dec 2011, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Probably, although there's an outside chance they could be talking with Ultralife.
    10 Dec 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking Enersys would be pretty formidable... but is there a chance that rising costs of nickel over time would preclude really significant widespread adoption?
    10 Dec 2011, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Beneath is an excellent article on one lithium/EV play I do like, Kandi Technologies. The article is lengthy and very detailed. Even SA Kandi expert Arthur Porcari was very impressed:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Dec 2011, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Hi, everyone

     

    One possible scenario that comes to my mind is if PowerGenix or other non-lead acid battery turns out to work better than AGM batteries made by JCI,XIDE, don't you think these two companies desperately need Axion electrode?

     

    And if certain type of Non-lead acid batteries and Pbc are pretty comparable, I think JCI and XIDE still want to push their lead acid based batteries through their established marketing line.

     

    Any thoughts?
    9 Dec 2011, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    My immediate thought was "What a fascinating scenario."

     

    kt
    9 Dec 2011, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    I have not used my car for a week and battery died this morning. I could not start engine. Of course with the help of booster cable I fixed it.

     

    Dual battery system sound like a good idea for Stop/Start.
    9 Dec 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    This past week I went to the Rosewater Energy website, opened the contact page and posted an email wishing them good luck. I also said I had long believed that the PbC needed a bigger sales push and that I was very happy they were representing Axion's products.

     

    I received a reply today from Mario Bottero of Rosewater Energy which I will share with my fellow Axion Concentrator members:

     

    "Thank you for the well wishes and I don’t think we will be letting the Axion faithful down. We have some exciting opportunities in front of us and have made some great progress this past year. I truly believe 2012 will be a watershed moment in terms of sales. We’re still climbing the (steep) hill, but it looks like we’re almost there.

     

    We are taking on the marketing and sales for several applications, and have had some high level meetings with government officials, LDC’s, solar and wind producers, drill rig operators and more. The message has been clear, that storage is a key enabler for any true growth moving forward and we are excited to be a piece of that puzzle.

     

    Our network is truly global and with the kind of product Axion is making, we feel we can do it the proper justice it deserves.

     

    Thank you and best of luck to you (and all of us) with the Axion investment.

     

    Mario Bottero"

     

    I've wanted to see a more visible and aggressive sales and marketing push for the PbC for a long time and I think we are finally getting it from Rosewater Energy. Axion could never pay Rosewater Energy's executives the kind of compensation package their prior business experience would command, nor could they offer them enough incentive within Axion's structure either. It is the perfect deal for both parties, and Axion's stockholders as well. Let's cheer them on and hope for all the best!
    9 Dec 2011, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    bang whiz...Thank you for the post & thanks to Mr. Bottero for the comments.
    9 Dec 2011, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Nice BW! Thanks for sharing the email.
    9 Dec 2011, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    You have certainly not been alone in concerns about marketing of PbCs. Thanks for sharing Bottero's response.
    9 Dec 2011, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for this. Rosewater execs own pretty good snout-fulls of Axion shares, so they are aligned.

     

    OT: At some point in a lull, I'd value a discussion of marine-use apps, and perhaps strangely, e-bike apps.

     

    kt
    9 Dec 2011, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    e-bike? Are you sure?
    9 Dec 2011, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Another thing about Rosewater occurred to me:

     

    1) doesn't Rosewater they already have enough skin in the game that they wouldn't want to 'quit digging before stiking gold'?

     

    2) didn't the owner create and sell 2 companies for $100M+ and therefore have deep enough pockets to take part in an additional round to ensure the success of his initial investment?

     

    I'm plagued by financial worries so am always thinking of those who are motivated and able to ensure Axion's survival (East Penn, OEM VCs, etc).
    9 Dec 2011, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    D> IMHO relax! Seriously, Axion has a very low burn rate which gives them a lot of flexibility. They are going to get through 2012 one way or another, and I think developments over the course of 2012 will ensure the company will have the ability to raise any additional capital it may need after 2012. It may not be pretty, it may not be perfect, but I bet Axion raises whatever capital it needs to raise, and without becoming someone's prison b*tch. It is obvious TG values Axion's independence over all other considerations when he told XIDE to take a hike.

     

    As for me I could care less about "dilution" whether its JP's "shot of whiskey added to a beer", or just a glass of pure moonshine. Right now Axion needs to concentrate on execution and survival while maintaining its independence. The rest will follow when the orders begin flowing. If you want to worry, worry about orders, not financing.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    Ahh the bait is bit. <grin>

     

    Yah. I think it is possible. And it is a truly huge market -- bigger than cars, ne c'est pas, JP? But this is might be engineering lolli-gagging, except that you do not need automotive certification to enter the market. If it worked, the uptake could be fast. Much faster than automotive PbC.

     

    a) Lead acid actually already works, except it wears out.
    b) Lithium ion is great for western sensibilities, but people who own e-bikes in (Asia) can't easily afford such an expensive battery pack. It's often 3 to 5 months of wages.

     

    So, if one had a lighter battery with the same energy, and using a bit more space, will it physically fit? Yes.

     

    Are there advantages to offset the cost increment for people with limited income?

     

    o the current LABs have to be replaced ever 2 years or so; an 8+ year life would be nice.
    o a 30-minute recharge would be nice.
    o a better charge indicator would be nice.
    o a bit less weight would be nice.
    o a lower price than a LiFePO4 lithium ion battery would be nice.

     

    So, yes, I think it can be done. Need a 3x16V pack for 500WH, C/W a controller-charger in the pack.

     

    kt
    10 Dec 2011, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    PM DRich about marine apps, and while you are at it see if he will discuss lighting apps with you also (big animated Vegas type outdoor lighting or convention displays).
    10 Dec 2011, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    compelling points..
    10 Dec 2011, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2691) | Send Message
     
    KT: To get that voltage and energy at a sufficiently low price would require a new package, I believe.

     

    I keep wondering if the PbC technology is compatible with a "bipolar" design, where single electrode pair cells are stacked in series without the individual cell compartments and lead straps over the top of the compartment wall for electrical connection.
    The PbC is an AGM design, which means no liquid electrolyte slopping around as in a flooded cell. The question is, can the cells be physically stacked with electrical contact between the lead electrode of one cell and the carbon electrode connection point of the next? I believe a new carbon electrode assembly would be needed to allow this "end to end" type cell connection.

     

    If this is possible, then the weight per Wh could be reduced substantially by building one battery of 36 to 48V, for example. The reduced battery to battery (think 12V each) interconnect wiring would also save weight and connection time.

     

    This is just speculation. I have no idea if Axion has even looked at the concept. It might be a future project when the "lower hanging fruit" applications has been harvested.
    10 Dec 2011, 01:45 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    silhilbil, That's an intriging idea, but I think there's a fundamental flaw which would preclude that arrangement... namely, with such a series stack, wouldn't all the charge flow necessarily have to transport across the electrolyte? If so, I think that would defeat the capacitor characteristics, one of which is rapid and massive charge transport... in other words on one side of the bipolar electrode, you'd have the carbon sponge, which would readily accept and liberate charge, but then it's mated on the other side to PbO2 which would need to ionize/react in order to achieve charge transport.... which I believe would just slow everything down and leave one with just a regular battery... apologise to all if I gooned this royally and just made everyone stupider.... but that's what jumped out at me...
    10 Dec 2011, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    Hi SHB,

     

    -- SHB wrote: "To get that voltage and energy at a sufficiently low price would require a new package, I believe."

     

    Thoughts:

     

    a) Design speculation is not necessarily helpful to this Concentrator's consideration of the realities -- but it is something I like to do anyway.

     

    b) A (very) new case per battery. 3 narrow batteries in a pack for 48-to-36V swing. A new mini-charger-regulator in the pack, so that it just acts like a normal lead-acid for easy uptake. It could fit in the vee-space above pedals (which has been done in many e-bikes, or it in another configuration it could fit behind the seat (a common retrofit strategy).

     

    c) Here's a fun speculation: PbC works in non-VRLA (flooded) configurations if you slow down the charge rate at the top end. Considerably cheaper than VRLA-PBC, still longer lasting than Lithium Ion. Manufacturable on less-sophisticated lines. Not as quite as high performance, but it would be an interesting evaluation. Ultrabattery has now gone there, possibly because of their inherent gas generation problems in high-speed charging -- in a flooded design you can top up the electrolyte water.

     

    -- SHB wrote: "I keep wondering if the PbC technology is compatible with a "bipolar" design, where single electrode pair cells are stacked in series without the individual cell compartments and lead straps over the top of the compartment wall for electrical connection. ... {snip much good stuff} ... This is just speculation. I have no idea if Axion has even looked at the concept. It might be a future project when the "lower hanging fruit" applications has been harvested. "

     

    This is an electrochemistry issue, as I recall. In talking with PbC's inventors, at length, they anticipated a gas-generation issue in doing that -- I do not recall why. But then (it's a story involving East Penn, some shouting, and midnight oil) at "gun point" we had one built exactly thus, and it just worked. So we ordered up many more, and they *all* worked. The first multi-cell PbC's were what you proposed. I do not recall if there was shown to be a problem long-term with gas in this, but there's another thing: Converting existing VRLA lines (a critical design goal) meant using separate cells, as per the equipment in those lines.

     

    Your point is well-taken, and I will think on this. Heck, I just suggested a flooded version, so I ain't shy.

     

    kt
    10 Dec 2011, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    Bang...
    just wondering if Mr. Bottero has read or been alerted to your sales concern over the past year.
    I know someone made mention AXPW et al are aware of John and Maya's blogs.
    Maybe your concerns have not fallen of deaf ears after all...
    10 Dec 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    KT,

     

    E-bike with pedals, motor assist *predominately* for acceleration and hills, regeneration (at a *very* low rate) via pedaling, once acceleration/assist periods end, and/or coasting (mostly downhill?) and/or braking (charging rate higher on these last two)?

     

    The rider, trip distance and terrain play a big role in determining how "big" a battery would suffice. Add in a simple 3 or 5 speed drive train.

     

    Figuring you want sufficient speed to be not *too* much slower than traffic and not much faster than what's safe for a typical rider, how much horsepower is needed for initial acceleration, assist on hills? What distance should be covered in "typical" use and a few of the nearer extremes?

     

    Unassisted, the average 5/10-speed rider can likely make 15-20 MPH without *excessive* effort (aiding health maintenance at the same time). With a 3 or 5-speed drive train, maybe another 5 MPH or so?

     

    http://bit.ly/uSGFYr

     

    It seems this takes about 0.4 horsepower. I suggest that a couple horsepower *maximum* (for hills and acceleration) would easily satisfy the need. A 12 volt (initial ~13.5-14.2 volts?) pack at ~4 amps ~~ 500 watts = ~0.67 HP. That's *more* than a substantial portion of the population can generate.

     

    http://bit.ly/vB2Ju0

     

    A simple fairing that pays attention to wind resistance reduces power needs all around, as well as providing some protection from the elements.

     

    We might be able to get away with a smaller energy pack. And if it's a ~16 volt?

     

    For those that don't want to pedal, an optional larger battery.

     

    These thoughts prompted by the lower energy content of PbCs.

     

    Sell it as a cost and health-aid benefit with motor assist when needed? Just first-blush thoughts.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    BangWhiz! That was a great move you made! Kudos to you and Mr. Bottero.

     

    For me, "... and have had some high level meetings with government officials, LDC’s, solar and wind producers, drill rig operators and more. The message has been clear, that storage is a key enabler for any true growth moving forward ...".

     

    This suggests that the ball is rolling right along. Depending on how long it has been rolling, I think something notable in Q1 might be issued - at least a PR of some pending deal that seems pretty-much a certainty at the time.

     

    Thanks again,
    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2011, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    As I understand it, the idea for a residential PowerCube originated with Joe Piccirilli because he's made a couple fortunes in integrated home technology systems and wants to do it again with higher-end systems that include solar and storage. You can find out more about Joe by Googling Piccirilli and Avad or Piccirilli and Sound Advice.
    10 Dec 2011, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Again, just from the consumer perspective... having one's power go down for any length of time can be a real problem... the biggest issues for most I'd say being comms, tv, internet, but mostly refrigerators (particularly if heating/cooking/hotwater and dryer are all on natgas) ... lighting is not such an issue anymore now that flashlights/lanterns with batteries last very long with the advent of LEDs... but internet, sat tv, cable, security systems, cell phone/laptop charging, and of course food refrigeration--those are the things that people really miss if they are without power for a few days (as just recently happened due to high winds in areas of SoCal)... anyway, a residential sized UPS, one that could handle those kinds of light loads more or less transparently, and which maybe featured an optional solar panel or two for off grid charging... that product could be a winner if it was cheap enough and long-lived enough and integrated in a smart way...
    10 Dec 2011, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    A more attractive solution might reside in micro-grid installations that serve a neighborhood. Batteries collect and store energy from PV, wind, geothermal, CPST (you knew I'd squeeze that in somewhere, right?), the grid, ... whatever. Then if power from whatever source goes out for extended period, the PowerCube (could be camouflaged to be aesthetically pleasing) serves the whole neighborhood.

     

    Potential advantages: lower initial cost per residence, lower service costs, greater flexibility and reliability, lower energy costs as storage is "topped up" at low-cost periods or from near zero-cost sources (PV, wind, ...) and some % released into the micro-grid or even the real grid to generate revenues) at high-cost periods.

     

    There's likely more, but those crossed my mind easily.

     

    Greenvironment is implementating such in Europe already, but without the batteries, AFAIK, using CPST microturbines as the generation facility.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think the plan was more along the lines of giving the Manhattan Beach crowd a great opportunity to show their green and tech credentials while splashing out for a six digit home upgrade. It's like Bill Gates said about solar a few months ago, "the rich can afford to be cute."

     

    http://bit.ly/tk73GF
    10 Dec 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Hmm... I could see that say for new (or retrofit) subdivisions, where the initial investment and ongoing O&M could be folded into the HOA..and the whole thing could be integrated from the get-go. The trouble is it would have to be sized to service the full cumulative load... which ups the ante.. the difference for individual residences is that the energy store wouldn't be a common resource and therefore wouldn't experience the trajedy of the commons--- within one house, only a few circuits/loads (only the most essential) would be able to be powered by the UPS, thereby minimizing the watt/capacity size needed..and thus minimizing cost... I'm visualizing something for only a few thousand dollars that basically keeps two main things running--comms, data, security, and also refrigeration. Households that need something bigger -- a well pump, electric range, dryer, water heater etc.. the size/ cost would be much higher and/or a generator would have to be in the mix...
    10 Dec 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, the more I think about it (sometimes I mix up the order of writing/thinking) for the application to make sense for PbC/Axion, the batteries would really have to be cycled a lot, rather than just being there in standby... ordinary LA can do that... so the renewables integration piece has to be the focus (to make sense for PbC) ... so it would have to be a sizable solar array for a house, defraying a lot of electric bill, that would lean on the PbC hard every night.. the UPS function would be a major bonus of course, and could serve to make the whole package more attractive.. but yeah, it's gonna be more for the executive home/mini-ranch market, costing more like tens of thousands to make sense for Axion. I still want a battery-backed refrigerator though. ;) As far as comms/data/security, the individual UPSs we can all get at best-buy are probably good enough ...
    10 Dec 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Go to 25:19 of the Lux webinar JP posted a link to earlier and see what EDF is doing. EDF is large, has several subsidiaries active in micro-grid stuff. In the Lux presentation, the details the 4-8KWh approach being taken are presented there.

     

    I'm not saying your concerns are invalid, I'm suggesting that they may have been effectively addressed and solved.

     

    I was already aware of them through following CPST, which may be beneficially affected by the strategy some of their subsidiaries are pursuing in this country and elsewhere.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2011, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2691) | Send Message
     
    KT wrote:
    "b) A (very) new case per battery. 3 narrow batteries in a pack for 48-to-36V swing. A new mini-charger-regulator in the pack, so that it just acts like a normal lead-acid for easy uptake. It could fit in the vee-space above pedals (which has been done in many e-bikes, or it in another configuration it could fit behind the seat (a common retrofit strategy)."

     

    My thought was one long package with ALL the cells in it. 18+ cells all squished together with every plate in contact with it's neighbor cell. Very much like the older (and possibly present) higher voltage zinc-carbon primary batteries. If there is no "runny" electrolyte it should work.

     

    I can't envision the existing electrode design(s) well enough to figure out the geometry and potential leakage paths. I keep thinking that a compression O-ring type seal between the cells might work.

     

    If the cell dimensions (height x width) are small enough, you should be able to supply enough compression using two rigid end plates and 4 long machine screws to compress the package.

     

    I even thought of boring a hole thru the center of the stack and usign a fiber reinforced plastic rod to compress everything together.

     

    Roger the different assy line. That would be an added price, obviously.

     

    Just thinkin'
    10 Dec 2011, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Regarding the residential uses. I'd guesstimate there are at least 180 odd countries or so that have more frequent power outages than the ones most of us live in. Some of those places average daily power outages at times.
    11 Dec 2011, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Lots of recent discussion has focused on likely near term share price dynamics.

     

    Anyone care to venture opinions on a reasonable PbC market development schedule?

     

    Is expectation of more than one PowerCube sales in 12Q1 realistic?
    Is expectation of an NS announcement by March-April realistic?
    Is there any real prospect of BMW adoption of PbC in one or more models in first half 2012?
    9 Dec 2011, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    NS order is very expected and extremely realistic (check out the post further up with a link to a recent NS presentation in which NS speaks about the PbC.)

     

    BMW announcement in the first half of 2012 I give about a 50/50 shot at.
    PowerCube sale in Q1 2012 I don't bank on but would be a nice surprise.

     

    Side note...
    If you are an investor in Axion you believe in the technology and you believe in the company, it is however a speculative stock which means you have no concrete answers to what the future holds. You weigh the risk of none of those announcements coming to the reward if one or all come through.

     

    Considering Axion is currently trading for nearly book value, and production of lead acid batteries and AGM batteries at 80% capacity at their existing plant could bring in about $44M in revenue and 6.6M gross profit (with no value being put on the PbC at all). I would say the risk to reward is one you will be hard pressed to find again in your lifetime. I am not being foolish by insinuating there is no risk...that would be foolish. I just find the ratio extremely compelling.
    9 Dec 2011, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    :-) JP, Maya and I share capacity for earrrrrly entry on prospective game changers. I have been long AXPW since before the reputed agreement with Xide and have averaged down multiple times to a current average cost basis of $0.68. I'm good with a bit additional "averaging down" in the right circumstances (which do not require another year or more of patience for confirmation of PbC commerciality by clear PbC sales for product beyond protype/evaluation development).
    9 Dec 2011, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I consider a ramp up of PowerCube sales and an order from NS very likely in Q1.
    Automotive is an entire different story, however. No doubt that the PbC is doing excellent and is what BMW and others need. The problem is manufacturing. Automotive is very much locked down regarding quality standards (certification), manufacturing process, etc.
    The PC and railroad applications require large strings of batteries. If a single battery fails or performes a little bit different from its siblings, no problem. The BMS can handle it.
    For the single battery that sits in a BMW, it's a totally different story.
    So, compared to automotive, the PowerCube and railroad applications are really the low hanging fruit.

     

    10 Dec 2011, 06:04 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Sorry if my response was a little presumptuous to an "old hat in the game". My Axion defense mechanisms are a tad sensitive as I am more used to "newbies" subtly asking for guarantees in a stock that can not deliver them...for now.
    10 Dec 2011, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Interesting perspective, f-kru. Thanks.

     

    The past few days I've been thinking prospects for one or more PowerCube sales in 12Q1 are better than anything else known to be in the works. Mention of NS needing an environmental impact statement and EPA clearance of plans for the NS project location gives real pause there. And, given the clear economic headwinds in Europe I've begun to discount BMW adoption for European markets anytime soon.
    10 Dec 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, did I miss something? NS needs an environmental impact assessment and clearance from the EPA before they can proceed with the PbC in the 999?
    10 Dec 2011, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    D.M, I don't know that EPA clearance is needed for the 999. Isn't the 999 already built? My concern flows from a comment made on an earlier concentrator about EPA requiring an environmental impact statement on the railroad yard in which the prototype "slug" is located. I interpreted that comment as implying movement beyond the prototype "999" is not likely until EPA acceptance of the required impact statement.

     

    I'm pretty confident there are others on the board who have a better understanding of EPA regulations and dynamics. Perhaps someone can help enlighten us both.
    10 Dec 2011, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Railroads are very sensitive to environmental issues and always take a very conservative approach. An environmental impact assessment that says "we're going to use batteries and an electric motor instead of burning diesel fuel" is a no-brainer, particularly when the batteries are in a sealed AGM format that will be made and recycled somewhere else. My wife who is also a lawyer is fond of saying "you can beat the rap but you can't beat the ride." The process must be respected even when it seems silly and presents a foregone conclusion.
    10 Dec 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D.McHattie ... This EPA issue is not something akin to licensing to operate (although there are some of these). Look at it more like a "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval". Railroads keep statistics, referred to as "inventory", about various air quality component suchas particulates, NOx and others. They need to be able to "prove" statistically that each NS999 unit will improve air quality by such-and-such ppm through out the fuel usage chain (well to wheel, so to speak). First thing you need to do this is an operational unit in a real world setting. Then monitoring equipment over a certain time to establish evidence agreeable to all parties.

     

    If they were just to build and field units in, say, California and the air quality did not improve then they need some baseline to argue that the source is something other than their railroad. You can bet your sweet bippy that whoever is responsible for a lack of improvement is not going to voluntarily "fess up". There are hefty fines that go along with failure and tax credits that go along with improvement.
    10 Dec 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    >f-kru: "I consider a ramp up of PowerCube sales and an order from NS very likely in Q1"

     

    I'm "hoping for the best but expecting the worst" so I can't be disappointed.

     

    Here's what's crossing my mind: "first adoption". It implies quite a few things to me. *Extended* ramp of testing full capabilities so that *many* data points can be gathered. Evaluation of each set of data after collection, decisions to proceed or adjust something are made, time passes (albeit minimal?), rinse and repeat, ...

     

    Meanwhile, "back at the (market) ranch", the other ranch owners stand around jaw-boning watching their first-adopter neighbor's results to see if they might decide to follow his lead.

     

    So I reach two guesses. One is it will be at least a few months before enough data-collection, analysis and tweaking has been done for PJM/Veridty to have the confidence to issue an unqualified endorsement of the PowerCube for *that* market.

     

    The other is that most (all?) the others in *that* market wait for the endorsement. In those (conservative?) business areas, zero-risk is acceptable.

     

    So no Q1 PowerCube in that market AFAICT *if* my *guess* is in the ballpark.

     

    As a side effect of that, installations that are considering swap-out, upgrading or new installation of similar UPS arrangements are also awaiting some kind of endorsement. The best possible, in my mind, prior to the final unqualified endorsement from PJM/Veridity would be a statement from them to a specific customer that "Yes, it looks like it's working out well, but we need confirmation from a second site as part of our validation process. Would you be willing to ... if we share some of the risk?" and shortly thereafter an order appears for another PowerCube.

     

    Time-frame? I have no idea. But even that relaxed-endorsement scenario *seems* to me to require a few months because the time gained by suggesting the PowerCube, to a selected potential customer, before *all* validation is completed is lost in contracting and negotiating, etc.

     

    The NS *seems* the most likely just because of the time they've had to play with it so far. And they've publicly discussed results, have a desire to be seen "green", have the potential that the EPA might bring pressure, have cost savings that begin to accrue immediately, ...

     

    I'm of a mind that the next big surprise may emanate from Rosewater. They're "marketeers", they are addressing a very large potential market, they have extended reach, they have (or are in rapid-development mode on) a new product line, ... My take is that these sorts of folks are quite nimble and able to move quickly.

     

    They likely know how to take advantage of "off the shelf" technology, effectively utilize "partnerships" with companies that have needed skill-sets in-house, etc.

     

    They likely know how to maximize the effectiveness of PR. And they know there's nothing like getting that first installation done to serve as a "showcase" to bring new customers into the fold.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2011, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, all, responses much appreciated.

     

    So we know that the NS999 with PbC will result in an environmental improvement but the impact assessment must be done to prove it and get credit for the improvement. Got it.

     

    But the question remains: does the performing of this assessment hold up implementation of the NS999 on a full scale and, if so, how much?
    10 Dec 2011, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hatttie: Ben Franklin once said: A penny saved is a penny earned.

     

    Surely, the EPA's approval of NS using Axion's technology is a huge feather in NS's cap.

     

    But we have to remember that Norfolk will also be improving their bottom line in using Axion PbC technology. A potential win-win scenario. I believe Norfolk is probably targeting both to occur nearly simultaneously.
    10 Dec 2011, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    > HTL, I agree. Utilities will not move so quickly. RoseWater will get the ball rolling. TG talked about oil-rigs years ago in a conference call, so they've come a long way here as well.
    Another thought - I don't know much about drilling companies, but they might not just order one single cube, they might order a whole series.
    Also, I think there's a nice overlap between the PC and Norfolk Southern. They might even use the same battery management system. No inverters needed for railroads, though.
    The SEPTA wayside project fits right in the middle, although the pilot is done using batteries provided by Saft:
    http://bit.ly/teBRex

     

    But again, NS was supposed a Q4/2011 event, so chances are good it hapens Q1/2012. The RoseWater PowerCube is a ready to sell product that's beeing pitched right now to oil companies world wide. Pretty good chances they will order a couple (~$1 Mio) each next quarter.
    10 Dec 2011, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    What a radical concept, conservation that also conserves money.
    10 Dec 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    EPA: Control of Emissions from Idling Locomotives

     

    http://1.usa.gov/sDJ7Sa

     

    Note they have contact people for each of the major railroads :-)
    10 Dec 2011, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Someone posted a reminder that the latest NS schedule had slipped, possibly, as late as Q2. I wonder if that's a result of the environmental impact statement requirements.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    I didn't get that. That's hard to love indeed ;-) Still hoping for Q1.
    10 Dec 2011, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >HTL ... It was my understanding that NS was being held up because of patent issues with the train controller. I believe that was mentioned either in the Q2 CC or annual meeting notes. I'm not sure which.
    10 Dec 2011, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Thank you sir! I am apparently suffering a mild overload condition, from too much switching around different places, for my current capacity. First I missed the delay on the Green Goat stuff and now the reason too!

     

    Oh well, one of the benefits of "aggregate knowledge" is we don't all forget simultaneously!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2011, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to all for the many thoughtful responses.
    11 Dec 2011, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nice work, bangwhiz.

     

    What a wonderful response from Mario.

     

    Isn't is great fun to be part of a group of investors with such tenacity as yours?
    9 Dec 2011, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Maya. This is a tenacious group of investors and what I like is the balance between our positive attitude towards Axion's future and our cautious nature as individual investors. If there is a problem, or even a hint of a problem, no one in this group is going to turn a blind eye and a deaf ear towards it - we're inquiring people who want to know!

     

    Thanks for creating and maintaining the Axion Concentrator series Maya. Its a powerful group of organized investors. During the last conference call most people on the CC heard "Since there are no further questions - click" - but not us!! We were WTF!!?? - Call Ext 6!! - and we got and shared between us good in-depth answers to most of our important questions.
    9 Dec 2011, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I just wish we had had this concentrator together since 2009. For a long time I thought John Petersen and I were a couple of Sirens calling ships into the rocks. But lets be clear. He was the Siren. I was simply the lemming jumping off the cliff at $1.00 PER SHARE.

     

    Its been a wonderful journey into the world of energy storage. I'm a believer that this is a money making field in the short term future. But dealing with the last economic downturn and the current EZ future has big effects on our investments. Hope we all soon see benefits of our future vision. But understand that building a better mousetrap does not guarantee that your mousetrap will succeed.
    ( I remember in college the story of a company that built a better mousetrap. It worked better but was more expensive. The cheap mousetrap was preferred because people simply wanted to catch a mouse and dispose of it mousetrap and all.) Basically cheap beat cool and I hope and dream that Axion is the same kind of product.
    9 Dec 2011, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, I came across Axion via John's articles in early 2009 as well. Bought some shares around $1 before the Exide annoucement, more at $2 thinking it was starting to really take off.
    I discovered the BMW relationship on the Istanbul Conference website a week before it was announced, got some more shares and hoped the waiting would be over.
    And now here we are at .30, with things looking better than ever before ;-)
    10 Dec 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    F-KRU,
    I was fortunate to buy at $1 before the upswing. I did not buy more until the collapse. $1.50, $.90, $.75, etc. I just had "the conversation" with my beloved. She thinks I'm risky. I think I'm sane. But I will say this. If I hadn't been doing this a long time I wouldn't touch this stock with any of my money. I am invested ( and continuing) because it is the first truly disruptive technology I have ever understood. I used many dot.com products as they skyrocketed upward. But I didn't understand the company. I have invested in sure things ( like GM) that fell from heaven to hell.

     

    But this stock has me as a believer in the true technological advancement of the battery itself.

     

    Are there risks? Sure. A better battery could kick this can down the road.
    Can Axion go broke? Sure. Management can waste the resources and run out of money.
    Can a new stock issue wipe out the equity of present owners? Sure. If the company takes in and wastes the money then present stockholders are screwed.

     

    What is the risks? As I stated to my most beloved wife. The chances of Axion failing is less than the risks that the banking industry loses all the money in bank accounts right now. Bank accounts can go under due to a myriad of banking issues. The FDIC can go under by the magnitude of inflation if the banking sectors go under.

     

    I can't find a safer haven for our money than Axion. Most might not see it that way but I can not argue the point any better.
    10 Dec 2011, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Today's trading lesson ...

     

    So my current position was 400 shares short of a multiple of 5000 shares, and I put in a limit order to buy 5400 shares, not on the bid, but showing 2nd among the "exchange bidders" on Level 2. This was approximately an hour before closing. Willing to be patient, and "looking for a bargain." I'm $.001 above the 3rd bidder. I think the were making an offer for 5000 even. Stepped away for some other duties.

     

    What happens? Top bidder gets taken out, and then ...

     

    Somebody sells me 500 shares (less than $200) at my bid, taking my remaining offer down to 4900 shares, and out of sight on Level 2, since at this price you need 5000 shares to be seen on Level 2.

     

    Ouch, and touche.

     

    I suppose it's possible (but I doubt it) that someone sold at the market a number of shares that took out the 1st listed, and just happened to have 500 more to go.

     

    Guess I could have used "All or None," but we've seen some discussion about how that has issues too ...

     

    And yes, that was me closing this puppy with 4900 shares on the offer. Guess I'm not that patient, and really not wanting to look back one of these days and say ... "My God, what were we quibbling over a couple of pennies about?"

     

    Opinions? Don't ya just love OTCBB?
    9 Dec 2011, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    WTB, the best thought I have: get orders in early. That gives the MM time to get a piece here, a piece there, ... Of course, you're "firing blind" to some degree since you risk paying a "lot" more (percentage-wise) than you might have needed to. The only solution (for me) there is "Hey, this is a good price even if I could've done a bit better". It's the inverse of taking profit: I seldom hit the precise top, but I'm happy with the profit I took. That's what trailing stops do to you, BTW: trade off some reward for less risk.

     

    Earlier order entry has worked for me a couple of times when I was trying to get it for less than the currently best *presented* offers.

     

    For my broker, which is ETrade, when that sort of very small partial fill happened to me, I called and they refunded the charges, understanding that the remainder of the order would be entered and they'd still get their fee. Maybe your broker would consider the same if it happens in the future. I'm a "frequent trader" by ETrades criteria - that may be why they were willing to refund.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the insight. I'm doing a small 3K share buy next week. Appreciate the insights from your lessons learned. I want to stay at or under .37 which should work out fine. Hoping for .32-.34 with help from Quecus's Form 144 filing which I will wait on, unless I can get .32-.34 without waiting for Quecus. I'll start out with a limit .32 or .33 all or none GTC on Monday and go from there. I don't want to go over .37 so I may have to change my plans if price starts appreciating rapidly which I don't expect.
    10 Dec 2011, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I found a new link to the October 21, 2011 Norfolk Southern presentation at the University of Illinois Fall Railroad Engineering Seminar.

     

    http://bit.ly/vJOoNb
    10 Dec 2011, 02:01 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Ahhhh, I see, another fabricated NS presentation by John, the genius manipulator of the masses. Very sophisticated indeed. I will unveil a picture of Thomas Granville (click the link and it is a picture of none other than John Peterson, The OZ of Switzerland.)
    10 Dec 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    You have to know about the related post on Yahoo's message board to appreciate this good grin from jakurtz!
    10 Dec 2011, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    John,
    This is fabulous. NS is admitting its Green Goat failure publicly and endorsing the PbC. Now I don't want to shout to loud but HELL YES, this is a Great Thing.

     

    For anybody that believes this is a fad just look at these slides.

     

    Railroads can save millions of dollars by redesigning the shape of its rails and wheels. It can save millions by using PbCs in rail yard slugs. It can save millions in using electronic monitoring of long haul routes.

     

    For those that can't piece this together I want you to imagine this. A long haul locomotive that has a PbC engine ( as one of its engines) that recuperates the energy from a steaming locomotive slowing down, and then uses that energy to go uphill ( by using a PbC). The entire route is computer preplanned and monitored to get the maximum fuel efficiency.

     

    It is what it is. A brilliant way to make at least a few thousand fuel saving long haul rail engines.
    Thank you John. That was very encouraging.
    10 Dec 2011, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Very funny and quite effective. From one that hates the Yahoo message board I have this to say. Very well done.
    10 Dec 2011, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm...I resemble this remark! :-)
    10 Dec 2011, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2691) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Exactly right. But only one technology can be implemented quickly and without hundreds of millions of dollars being invested up front.
    The PbC electric regeneration system can be implemented on an engine by engine basis. Each chunk of money invested in a PbC storage retrofit starts returning dividends immediately in saved fuel and lower pollution.

     

    That's the best use of money I can see for the options mentioned.
    10 Dec 2011, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    One of the most important points I try to get across is my experience from the biodiesel business that taught me people care far more about the green in their wallets than they do the green in their cocktail party conversation. The rail and oil field applications for the PbC pursue the dual goal of saving money while offering an environmental benefit.

     

    Particularly when it comes to energy storage, the tension always arises from the conflict between the cost of waste and the cost of conservation. While waste is cheaper it will always win because of the laws of economic gravity. When conservation becomes cheaper it will always win because of the laws of economic gravity. Environmental considerations are simply a factor that increases the cost of waste.
    11 Dec 2011, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Ever since I became aware of (NSC), thanks to JP, I've been tracking the stock, waiting and waiting. Since rail has the best ton/mile cost and NSC is leading the pack in aggressive improvements to their input costs, I believe they are destined to outperform for a long while until the others (maybe?) catch up.

     

    What I'm counting on is the expected dip in the upcoming year to tank share prices on the market so I can get a good entry point.

     

    Now, this may not be a smart move - I may love it because they are aggressive risk takers, as am I (life-long MC rider probably says it all). But I've found that the failures and subsequent successes that come with that learning experience tend to lead to very good long-term outcomes if you survive the failures.

     

    Anyway, just wanted to pass that on as what I think is a good adjunct investment (or trade?) to Axion. While Axion will be following the erratic (somewhat) path of a rocket whose directional control system is not quite perfected yet, I believe NSC is a perfect stable counter-balance to that.

     

    I wish they had a better dividend though.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    11 Dec 2011, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Watch the coal issue, e.g.,
    http://bloom.bg/t9vBgN
    11 Dec 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >wtbanchard ... This is just my take. As strange as it may sound, a recession might speed up adoption of the NS999 model. Fuel is the single largest operational expense (followed by road bed) and in bad times lowering expenses is a top priority. A lot of engines will be put into storage which has always been a good time to do maintenance work. The attractive thing about upgrading to NS999 class locos is that it is not any more expensive than a typical 10 year engine overhaul. The capital cost can be put off until later and paid for with better margins on the other side of a slow down.

     

    Who knows, if NSC could get UP or BNSF interested in NS999, a slow economy might just turn into a booming business for NSC. No better time to work on equipment than when it's not needed to make money serving customers.
    11 Dec 2011, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I've been concerned about that. As well, Jon Springer has been doing some excellent instablogs on Mongolia and there appears that down the road a good deal of China's demand may be satisfied by Mongolia.

     

    Not sure how much affect that would have.

     

    Regardless, with diesel fuel where it's at, shortage of capacity (drivers have fled the trucking industry and don't seem poised to return), I suspect that if our economy continues to at least muddle along, NSC would would hae a lot of intre-modal businss going forward and would also adjust as needed to stay on a good track (pun intended).

     

    But I apopreciate the heads up - no telling what I might still be overlooking.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Dec 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    I think India is a big market for coal as well.

     

    Google "India coal shortage" for a taste.

     

    Not sure what the difference in shipping to India is from East Coast (where NSC might have an advantage out of Norfolk) and West Coast where UP would be the go to I presume.

     

    Another interesting factor to assess is whether (or better when) the natural gas glut in the US will lead to a significant reduction in US Coal consumption. Throw in the next Presidential election and whether we still have an EPA in 1.5 years :-)

     

    I had thought that Japan was going to use a lot more coal to address their immediate power issues, but I haven't followed up with research on that theory.
    11 Dec 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Also, see Bloomberg's efforts to move the US away from coal:

     

    http://bit.ly/rUMG4B

     

    Check out the "Related Information" links at the bottom of the article.

     

    Not to say there wan't be trades in the space, and of course you can add your Fundamentals v. Technical Analysis debate in here too.
    11 Dec 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Early indications are than Japan might migrate to more LNG imports.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Dec 2011, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Isn't most coal produced in NSC territory? I've not investigated, so it's really a question. If so, whether it ships east or west coast, itt looks like NSC would get a part of that.

     

    But, repeating, I've not investigated.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Dec 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Yes, there's a movement that makes much sense, even economically, with NG reserves and prices where they are and environmental concerns.

     

    I think met coal will be all that's used here, in any volume, eventually unless coal gasification promises, especially the environmental ones, can materialize.

     

    I'm not betting on that, but science and technology do have a way of surprising us.

     

    Regardless, greater energy *efficiency* efforts and changes I believe will appear in grid structure, greater use of landfill gas, wastewater treatment, ..., so many "renewables", will slowly reduce the need for it anyway. Ideally, even NG would become a smaller part of the mix in the long-term, unless it ends up being the best fuel to replace most oil-based transportation fuels.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Dec 2011, 03:58 PM Reply