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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 33: Beginning Dec. 15, 2011: jakutz's Article 164 comments
    Dec 15, 2011 7:26 AM

    Folks! jarkutz wrote an excellent article about Axion Power International. Just as when I first sought Seeking Alpha to publish my intitial Axion summation of the June 20 Investors' Conference, jarkutz learned that Seeking Alpha chooses to not publish any articles about stocks priced under $1.00. Upon discovering this fact, jarkutz approached me to have his article lead off a new Concentrator. I could not resist such a generous offer.

    Below is jarkutz's article.

    ####


    Axion Power: The Buy Of The Decade


    I want to start by clearing away a few things so no one is confused. I am not an expert financier (I know a little), I am not a battery tech geek (I know a little) and I am not John Petersen (I do know him). So why am I writing an article on a stock I have limited credentials on? I believe I have a unique perspective that comes from being a non-believer to an AXPWgelical.

    Axion Power Finances:

    I am starting with their finances because this one aspect many retail investors over look, and their finances alone make a compelling case to buy the stock now, considering a 30M market cap.

    Start off with debt, their only debt reported on their most recent 10K is made up of grants and one $500k loan held at 3% interest backed by the equipment purchased. This means no one owns there products, patents, and assets other than the shareholders.

    At their New Castle, PA plant, they have two traditional lead acid battery lines that can produce 2000 batteries a day. Running at only 80% capacity at $50/battery that is a potential revenue of $20M/Year. The same plant also has the capacity to produce 1000 AGM batteries at $120 each producing revenue of $24M at just 80% capacity. Running their current plant at 80% capacity would produce $44 Million a year in revenue and roughly $6.6M in gross profit. Their hard assets are equal to $13.3M. If you factor in their New Castle plant they bought for $700K on foreclosure that would easily account for the remaining shareholders equity of $17.5M (current Market cap at 30.8M minus 13.3M in hard assets).

    You may have noticed I have not mentioned any income thus far being derived from their proprietary PbC Battery technology that will potentially be a disruptive technology. It is no less than extraordinary that I just justified buying the company at the current market price on finances alone, and I did not even need to mention what the company is all about...the PbC battery, which holds extraordinary growth potential.

    Axion Power's Technology and Business Model:

    Axion Power's technology is their proprietary negative carbon electrode. A battery manufacturer will substitute their negative lead based electrode in standard AGM batteries with Axion's carbon based electrode. Sort of like intel selling chips to computer manufacturers. The battery is the computer, the chip is the electrode. A common bit of confusion for a lot of people watching Axion Power is that they believe Axion wants to be a battery manufacturer and therefore should be doing everything traditional battery manufacturers do to sell their product, i.e. publish technical spec, list cost, etc. The problem with this is Axion does not want to be a battery manufacturer, they only want to sell their electrode to battery manufacturers, but in order to do that they have to prove the PbC is a better battery to existing OEM's. So in the short term, they have to make the battery for demonstration and testing purposes, but the last thing they want to do is put existing battery manufacturers (their future customers) into a corner by publishing technical specifications or pricing too early. The beauty of this is they will not be in competition with anyone and they will be making the highest margin possible since no one will be able to make their electrode without infringing on their patents. I think Buffett might call that a moat.

    Axion's recent White Paper does however show categorically the superiority of their PbC technology over existing VRLA/AGM batteries (www.axionpower.com/Profiles/Investor/Inv...=) The White Paper illustrates how their PbC battery shows 10x-20x higher Dynamic Charge Acceptance after 2-9 months and 5-10x shorter charge after 2-9 months than VRLA/AGM. Both of these performance matrices are essential in Stop/Start idle elimination. For further reading on micro-hybrids and Stop/Start idle elimination, you can check out John Peterson's article here seekingalpha.com/article/297511-micro-hy... and Johnson Controls highlights their forecast for the industry in their Power Solutions Analyst Day here www.johnsoncontrols.com/publish/us/en/in....

    Axion Power's Current Testing Markets:

    Their are several markets very conducive to Axion's PbC battery technology where they have made major in roads and are in testing for over two years.

    1. Automotive: Axion Power has been testing their PbC battery with BMW (since 2009, as well as "several other European OEM's"). GM: "We are currently moving to in-vehicle testing with numerous OEM's," is written in Axion's recent application for a grant from the DOE with GM as their partner. This is no small feat, considering how notoriously slow-paced the automotive industry moves when pursuing new technology.

    2. Rail: Norfolk Southern testing in their NS999 (since 2009)

    3. Power Grid/Energy Storage: PJM and Viridity (www.marketwatch.com/story/axion-powers-p...)

    They are dealing with the largest market movers in each industry (keep in mind they are currently trading for around $30M.)

    Axion Power's Market Dynamics:

    Everyone knows the economic market conditions for the past three years have made the markets more than unstable and micro-cap stocks on the Bulletin Board surely were not spared the knife when it came to funds looking to cut out risk. The past 18 months have been extremely tumultuous for the market dynamics of Axion Power. Quercus Trust, a large fund that invests in green technology, was the first to begin selling off their 18M share (including warrants) position looking for liquidity to help support other companies in the fund that were not able to stand on their own feet. From here on out rule 144 of the SEC limits the amount of shares Quercus can continue selling. Other than in the third quarter of this year, Quercus has been a very responsible seller accounting for only 10% of the daily volume. Special Situations is another fund that has been selling, driving downward pressure on the share price very hard. In their 13G filing as of Sept. 30, Special Situations had 3.1M shares left. Since then, total volume for sellers has been ~5M shares, considering the very aggressive selling coupled with the lack of bad news (on the contrary the news has only gotten better) that has taken place over the past several weeks we (Axion Concentrators seekingalpha.com/instablog/228383-mayasc...) believe Special Situations is all but out of the picture. My belief is that myself as well as many of the other Axion Concentrator commentors have done the bulk of the buying. Considering that we all believe it to be a 5-10 bagger stock, most of those shares are in what can be termed "strong hands" and unwilling to sell at any price below a multiple of 5 from the current cap.

    Axion Power's Coming Capital Raise:

    Back in March, Axion announced a shelf registration to sell stock to raise $18M -$28M. Without any expansion Axion can last as a going concern until the end of Q2 2012 without any additional funds. On the most recent conference call Thomas Granville, the CEO of Axion Power, said they had been offered financing but not on terms acceptable to them. The growing consensus is that Axion Power will wait to do a positive press release causing the price to rise and then do the capital raise.

    Axion Power's Risk/Reward Profile:

    The two major risks that could create a bad outcome are the capital raise and worst nightmare scenario that the PbC does not gain any market acceptance in any of the markets it has been testing in for over two years now. If the PbC does not get market acceptance in the next six months, then they would not have to build out additional manufacturing capabilities and they would only need to raise the $18M on the low-end of the shelf registration. Not terrible considering they can still produce at least $44M in revenue and 6.6M in gross profit with their existing plant. They would not have to pay taxes because of NOL carryover from their previous years and no need for R&D expenses, both of which would increase their net income. If Axion does receive commercial orders for their PbC before Q2 of 2012, thereby confirming the PbC market acceptance, they should have no trouble raising capital, considering they are getting offers for that already. In addition, the price should spike since there are a lot of people who are aware of this stock thanks to John Petersen, but the majority are not willing to buy in now because of doubt surrounding the PbC's commercial viability. Once that doubt is put to rest through a commercial order from one or any of the first tier OEM's that are testing it. The share price should finally begin reflecting the true market potential of this disruptive technology.

    I have a hard time believing their is a better risk/reward profile currently in the market. I want to thank John for a lot of the information that I then confirmed with my own due diligence as I would assume anyone reading this article would do.

    ####

    I want to again thank jarkutz for a wonderful article!

Back To Mayascribe's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (164)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last Comment in the previous Concentrator from Kent G:

     

    Thanks again John and you too LabTech.

     

    JP, your reply to my other question, "The capital spending in Q-3 wasn't high enough to represent a changeover of one line from flooded to AGM, but it seems to be the right order of magnitude to accommodate an increase in the rate of flooded battery production." makes more sense now as well since the rebuilt casting machines will not change later when the line may be converted over to an AGM/PbC line.
    15 Dec 2011, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    "JP, your reply to my other question, "The capital spending in Q-3 wasn't high enough to represent a changeover of one line from flooded to AGM, but it seems to be the right order of magnitude to accommodate an increase in the rate of flooded battery production." makes more sense now as well since the rebuilt casting machines will not change later when the line may be converted over to an AGM/PbC line"

     

    John,
    KentG pointed out correctly that Mr. Granville said the money was to rebuild casting machines (not buy new ones as I misquoted). Which begs the question as to whether they were retrofitting older casting machines, that were already in use, so that they could be used more easily for both flooded and AGM lines, or rebuilding ones to put into use that were previously not in use? When Axion originally purchased the battery plant did it come with casting machines and other equipment that were there but not functional at the time or could they have possibly purchased used equipment and rebuilt them for their needs?
    15 Dec 2011, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    PP&E spending in Q-3 was $748,000. It's unclear to me whether that total includes part of the Gen2 line or if its all allocable to spending in the battery plant. In either event, it's a lot of money for a single quarter.

     

    When we bought the equipment in New Castle the plant had been shut down for an extended period of time but it was fully equipped to make 3,000 batteries a day. Any time you restart manufacturing equipment that hasn't been used for a while, you have to plan on major maintenance or even a minor overhaul.

     

    Since our goal in 2006 was to use the New Castle plant as a prototyping facility for PbC batteries, we focused on the AGM line and didn't spend money on the two flooded lines and other parts of the plant we didn't plan to use.

     

    Tom's statements about the work they did in Q-3 were pretty vague, but my interpretation is they were either working to get the second flooded battery line ready for production, or working to upgrade grid fabrication capacity to increase production from the working AGM and flooded battery lines.
    15 Dec 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Another very unattractive element for a 20:1 reverse split is that would drop outstanding shares to around 4M.
    15 Dec 2011, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    First, battery sales are seasonal. Cash flow is higher in 4th and 1st quarters, declines in 2nd and 3rd quarters. The first nine months includes two low cash flow quarters. The quarter we are in now, plus the next quarter, are high cash flow quarters.

     

    Second, as others mentioned, capital spending accounted for much of the prior decline in cash. That is over for a time. TG says we have cash to get through 2nd Q next year and that still looks right when I look at the numbers.

     

    Third, I do not expect management to wait until the last moment to get needed financing. But I do expect them to wait until a strong stock rise which is only likely with positive news. I think management expects significant positive news and is waiting for that news before any stock issuance. That would be consistent with all previous comments.
    15 Dec 2011, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    That's right. We need a strong stock rise before financing.
    15 Dec 2011, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Future posts on this should be shorter as I'm thinking I'm starting to repeat too many of my thoughts on the mechanicals.

     

    (AXPW): EOD wrap for some metrics I watch 12/14/2011.

     

    In light of the buy:sell and short sales today, I want to highlight that 400 share trade at $0.36 again, along with my "hmmm...". This sure looks like an enticement to buy when the market-maker(s) are selling down their long portfolio. If it had been multiple trades and larger sizes, and if we had not seen it just once before on a day when short-sales were also lower than normal, I would not be suspicious.

     

    An interesting day in light of my earlier supposition that a few 100K more needed to be traded (sold?) to finish the consolidation process and allow us to rise. Some speculated that tax selling might be in play. I can not dispute nor contradict this.

     

    What's of note to me is that *if* my "few 100K" was in the ballpark, today *may* have been it, as the volume today suggests at least 200K sold (using JP's divide by 2)and maybe substantially more. There's some interesting numbers from today. Take a peek at the buy:sell ratio and some FINRA-reported daily short sales numbers.

     

    EOD buy, sell, unknown 127,850, 283,051 and 500. Buy:sell 1:2.214, buy:(sell+unknown) 1:2.218. Total volume is 411,401.

     

    1129 TotVol 0139466, Sht 00073667 52.82% buy:sell 4.17:1
    1130 TotVol 0155326, Sht 00051276 33.01% buy:sell 1:1.69
    1201 TotVol 0304750, Sht 00113950 37.39% buy:sell 1.191:1
    1205 TotVol 0790577, Sht 00134087 16.96% buy:sell 1:2.9
    1206 TotVol 0923239, Sht 00221009 23.94% buy:sell 1:1.85
    1207 TotVol 1074969, Sht 00452620 42.11% buy:sell NOT AVAILABLE FROM ADVFN
    1208 TotVol 0140689, Sht 00043843 31.16% buy:sell 3.81:1
    1209 TotVol 0193569, Sht 00128829 66.55% buy:sell 1.683:1
    1212 TotVol 0364751, Sht 00160051 43.88% buy:sell 1.36:1
    1213 TotVol 0164344, Sht 00082245 50.04% buy:sell 1:1.084
    1214 TotVol 0411401, Sht 00084400 20.52% buy:sell 1:2.214

     

    Yesterday I suggested that the 50%+ number was near where I would like it, but was looking for a little more. Well, the market decided to make me look foolish.

     

    The prior few days had a decent bias to the buy-side in the buy:sell ratio with short sales ranging near and into the "normal-to-high" range. This is expected if the market-maker(s) receive sell orders and they don't control the shares.

     

    Some may: e.g. ETrade has both a brokerage and market-maker unit (I'm sure many others do too) - if an ETrade client sells, are those shares in control of the market-maker? I believe so. As sell orders are received, the market-maker(s) naked-short shares not in their control, pushing prices lower. I *believe* that as the prices drop a smart maker would be buying some to cover the naked short positions as an immediate profit is garnered. This is likely going on throughout the day.

     

    If that's what happens:
    - the market maker received cash on the naked-short sale,
    - the market maker covered some portion at a lower price (netting a profit and
    possibly fees for "providing liquidity") and maintained a more-or-less market-neutral position,
    - shares related to the naked-short sales for sell orders flow in each day, causing a long portfolio position,
    - these shares are sold into the market from a long position and represent
    near-100% profit (if covering buys had been made already), so any price (more or less) is acceptable.

     

    This seem to fit with the few days pattern of a strong buy-side bias in the buy:sell ratio at the same time rising short sales are seen and culminating in what was seen yesterday - a strong sell bias in the buy:sell ratio with really low short sales.

     

    As the shares related to sell orders continue flowing in (normally three days or less - with networks we have now I'm thinking next day is most common) either the DTCC "nets" the market-maker(s) positions (I don't know about this) or makes covering buys (if I was a market-maker I'd prefer to cover myself and get a profit in hand).

     

    With a buy:sell decidedly biased to the sell, in stark contrast to the bias towards buying in the prior few days, and very low short sales on (relatively) high volume, I'm looking for ... as a SWAG ...

     

    A bias up today on lower volume. But please do keep in mind I'm still early in trying to work this stuff out and don't pillory me too badly if I'm way off the mark! >8-O

     

    The reasoning is straight-forward: the market-maker(s) portfolio should be more market-neutral, containing only more recent sell-order shares from a day or three ago, which *averaged* lower volume than today. If few *substantial* new sell orders come in, there's no reason for the market-maker(s) to be aggressively shorting, although there should be some rise. If we see a strong bias towards buying, we could expect more aggressive short selling to appear just as an effect of the market-maker mechanics.

     

    Most of the following was written earlier in the day and may not be all that interesting to many folks. I've added a few lines that integrate with what I penned above.

     

    Earlier in the day, buy:sell was 1:4.10. This seems to have been sparked by an aggregate *bid* of 100K @ $0.34 (appeared @ 10:21:08) as selling into that bid was noted. Larger "sells" were noted, including 57K. Might be: - the market-maker(s) portfolio being long and getting to more neutral,
    - the market-maker doing his "liquidity" thing,
    - some sell orders received in response to such a nice-sized bid (filling almost assured) - possibly the dregs of SS appearing,
    - last of the profit-taking by ~$0.30 buyers (excluding me - I'm holding for now.

     

    After looking at stuff at EOD, I'm leaning towards market-maker(s) were long and getting to a more neutral position.

     

    After that 57K trade, many more trades were "buys", a few larger, most medium to smaller, as price dropped as low as $0.31. Good support was seen at this level as bid volumes went to 143K and then as high 150K+ at this price.

     

    We closed at $0.335, up 1/2 penny from yesterday.

     

    The spread widened and volume increased today and engulfed yesterday's candle entirely, suggesting indecision and that a change is near. This is reinforced by a candlestick known as a "spinning top", which indicates indecision. No direction is implied by either of these indicators, in isolation.

     

    The FINRA-reported short sales should offer a clue to narrow the likely ones to one or two of those. If there's a jump (I mentioned before I thought it needed it to go a bit higher), at these sizes I think it's:
    - new sell orders (shares not yet in the market-maker(s) portfolio, such as a
    new SS or sell order),
    - the market-maker(s) providing liquidity.

     

    As it ended up, short sales were *way* down, so the market-maker(s) had long portfolio, supported by a strong sell bias in the buy:sell ratio.

     

    If there's a drop, the market-maker's had gotten long (shares from prior sell orders they shorted that finally came into their control or shares obtained while providing liquidity, although that seems less likely due to the sizes).

     

    It turns out that the above came to fruition.

     

    Another possibility is market-maker(s) accumulating in response to a big buy order - but I would expect smaller trades pushing price down in this case. Eventually, that bid was exhausted

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 Dec 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Consider creating separate Google Docs for each one of these. Then you can just post a link to the "published" version.

     

    Also suggest a separate quarterly or Monthly (or both?) Concentrator just for these with each day's link as a new "comment."

     

    Separating them into different documents makes it much easier to retrieve any particular day's documents.

     

    Using Google documents could also allow you to retrieve pieces of data from centralized spreadsheets or Fusion Tables which be useful later in ways you haven't thought of yet.

     

    As for Publishing it (so everyone can see it:)
    http://bit.ly/smMoXm
    15 Dec 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    WTB: good thoughts. I think it's better for me to just start not repeating so much. My thinking is that as time passes the older daily moves become less germane. ISTM that if I just summarize results and make a best SWAG, that should be more useful, over time, than my current too-long stuff.

     

    And if someone has questions, I can fill in the blanks or provide links ... in some cases.

     

    Running Linux systems and being an old long-term computer guy, I've got lots of tools - WPs, DBMs, Graphics, ... right here on my various boxes. I'm not a "cloud enthusiast" either as I trust neither government nor business with anything out there.

     

    And I do like to keep the instablog going as long as I can tolerate SA's issues (not just mechanical).

     

    Thanks for the suggestions though.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Dec 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I had an old celeron laptop I repaired and I am running it as a test of a cloud based laptop like the Google Chromebook. I am using cloud applications for everything except a couple of apps. Google Docs works well for me because I have two laptops, a desktop that's nice but not in use at the moment, and another desktop in the house with my own user account if I need more processing power.

     

    I like access to my doc data (all spreadsheets at the moment plus a Doc that HTL and I used to summarize the questions for the last conference call) from whatever computer I am using. I'm looking to buy a new laptop eventually and the Chromebook was a potential option since I spend most of my time on the web. Alas, not having any potential to have a specialized app just knocks it out of consideration for me. Its close, but no cigar.

     

    I think Google Docs for collaboration within the Axion Concentrator threads would be useful, but I haven't proposed anything yet. I have thought about how to control it and I would ask people to PM me an email address for access to whatever Google Docs we were all interested in maintaining. That way we would have better control over access than just making it a shared doc open to anyone with a link - the email address authorization would prevent a troll from messing with us. It is also possible to allow any user with access to register any new user also. Essentially anyone with access would be an administrator.

     

    I think this idea would work for developing questions for the next conference call but I haven't married the idea. Anyone have any ideas along this line?

     

    Lastly, HTL, just glancing at the AXPW chart it is pretty obvious that Axion is in a consolidation period with no clear direction to either the upside (above .36) or downside (below .30). In my discussions with JP he's convinced me that price is more supply and demand related than news related. You can get a small pop on run of the mill news, but a lasting uptrend - particularly a sky rocket - is all about supply and demand.

     

    With so many buyers in cheap (less than .40 and as low as .30) there is an inherent risk of profit takers on any movement above .38 or more. I think it will take both good news and time for the flippers to sell at .40-.45 before we get a sustained uptrend. Just MHO.
    15 Dec 2011, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    I agree we're still consolidating. I just keep seeing small signs that it may be nearing an end. But, just as with yesterday, bias flipped from buying to selling on - my guess - the market-maker(s) being long in their portfolios ATM.

     

    Oh well, it is what it is.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Dec 2011, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    BW - Note the difference between ownership/collaboration of the document creation and then *publishing* the doc so that anyone can read the results via the link without being able to change the "source material."

     

    But I certainly understand that cloud has potential security issues that nobody talks about much ... yet.

     

    I'm a Un*X guy, so I get the attraction of having control and real power to do whatever you want and need to.
    15 Dec 2011, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I was only considering ownership and collaboration, however publishing it might make it easier for thread members to view the list of questions being developed without participating in the development process. Be nice to give TG a peek at it before the conference call also.

     

    Maya could put a link to the doc in the header of the concentrators to keep question development focused as we roll along. The doc could be divided into logical sections for question topics (R&D, Finance, Production, Organization, Sales, Etc.)
    15 Dec 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    WTB: "I'm a Un*X guy"

     

    Welcome brother! Since 1978. Was still dong some mainframe, mini and micro work but *IX was "True Love" as soon as I found it.

     

    I was the guy that shipped the tapes to the colleges and government for a short while until we got production set up. Gave short presentation to DARPA at U of GA on how UNIX could so easily communicate (some *really* sharp folks in that crew). They then went on to develop you-know-what.

     

    All my boxes are *ix (since my very first PC at work back in ... 1984? - a biggee with 64K "RAM" - upgraded later to a wopping 96K - on an 8086?) at home, except the one needed to trade using ETrade Pro and a laptop I've not yet converted. My trading UNIT is dual-boot and when I get the VM installed (some day) W7 will be running under CentOS (a free RH repackage distro).

     

    Suddenly, I don't feel as lonely in here ! ;-))

     

    As to the cloud, it's not the security issues as much as (adjusts tin-foil hat) the abuse by the government. There has never been a tool they won't abuse to the detriment of the people and benefit of power-interests.

     

    I used to be (as one of many functions I've served) security admin for corporate development of ~200 folks. During that stint I learned that security would never be absolute and adjusted my POV and actions accordingly.

     

    You'd either laugh or be in awe at my passwords: rigorous would be understatement. I go so far as to not even *ever* use the same one twice even within my LAN at home, JIC. And SSH keys are used for login in most cases.

     

    Oh well, enough of this OT stuff.

     

    Good to know you're here.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Pssst - Think Mac OSX
    16 Dec 2011, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    JP: A long time ago, I decided that a Mac OS was based on Unix. While visiting my mother last year, for an extended period, I got to observe various Macs used by her and my sister and her husband.

     

    Nice GUI. When I went to the command-line interface (CLI), which is my "natural" MO, it still looked like it. But I didn't really dig deep.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You'll be happy to know that after 23 years I don't know what a CLI is. Of course I don't know most of the computer stuff that most PC users seem to carry in their DNA.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    I'm a PC. But MacOSX is indeed based on BSD Unix and the Terminal is a complete Unix shell.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Well, that explains the overall better performance of the MAC vs. Linux, e.g. A true Unix-based system includes preemptive scheduling which is/was(?) missing in most (older?) MS and Linux systems.

     

    I'm not sure if those latter ones have it yet - haven't bothered to look since I wrote a driver for a network card on an older Linux variant.

     

    I can tell you that the code in many of the Linux drivers back then left a lot to be desired.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    "ZBB Signs New Joint Development and Stock Purchase Agreement With Major US Technology Company
    Strategic Stock Purchase Part of $1.8 Million Market-Priced Financing"

     

    http://yhoo.it/sPcwF6

     

    Looking forward to seeing more of the details.

     

    Earlier in the year ZBB signed a big deal with a Korean firm for joint development/improvement of their Flow Battery. Looks very promising, but time will tell.
    15 Dec 2011, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    If you look at the ZBB prospectus they give a good illustration of JP's whiskey analogy:

     

    "Our net tangible book value as of September 30, 2011 was $1,702,891 or $0.05 per share of common stock. Net tangible book value per share represents total tangible assets less total liabilities, divided by the number of shares of common stock outstanding. On a pro forma basis following the issuance and sale of 1,425,000 shares in this offering at the offering price of $0.7101 per share, our net tangible book value as of September 30, 2011 would have been $2,603,833, or $0.08 per share. This represents an immediate increase in net tangible book value of $0.03 per share to existing stockholders and an immediate dilution in net tangible book value of $0.63 per share to purchasers of common stock in this offering"
    15 Dec 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Interesting to note that the "major US technology company" is not named. One could surmize that either they didn't want their name attached to the project in case it fails, or they didn't want other companies coming to them asking for money too.
    15 Dec 2011, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    ZBB seems to be able to add financing here and there (lately at market prices) and just keep developing their product. Here they contract to do research for $700,000 and allow the customer to buy some shares. They would have done the research anyway but use these larger corporations gigantic research departments to help speed the process up. I like what they are doing. I see some risks to it but the risk is a lot better than dying.

     

    If it is true that having relationships with the big boys is a good thing for Axion,it probably is also a good thing for ZBB.
    15 Dec 2011, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nissan suspends EV battery plant construction in Portugal:

     

    http://bit.ly/spx0eE
    15 Dec 2011, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    "... the plant has turned out to be unnecessary for the immediate future. "
    15 Dec 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    "Nissan is considering how to use the facility under suspended construction, the officials said."

     

    Maybe they can fit it to make AGM batteries and we can sell them some PbC electrodes! :-P
    O.K....not likely, but it does show once again that limited ranged EV that cost a lot of money aren't the big sellers everyone hoped they'd be.
    15 Dec 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think I should be roundly congratulated for biting my tongue and not saying anything snarky.
    15 Dec 2011, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Like Willie Nelson's song, with Nissan announcements like that "you were always on our mind!" You probably feel like a cat with a tummy full of mice.
    15 Dec 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations John. My 1st thought went out to a certain blogger that thinks the Leaf is the cats meow. But, I hate to say that my thought wasn't pleasant. So, like yourself, If you have nothing nice to say. Please don't say it.
    15 Dec 2011, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2726) | Send Message
     
    But John, I was looking forward to your unique and implausible suggested use for the ex-battery factory :-)
    15 Dec 2011, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Winery. That always works in Portugal.
    16 Dec 2011, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Ok, Ok,

     

    That was hilarious.
    16 Dec 2011, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Corkery: that used to work in Portugal!

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Or turn out the lights and go for multi use aging wine and cheese and growing mushrooms.
    16 Dec 2011, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Something a little closer to home for me showing what happens when electric companies say "no" to paying for the high price of wind power with a backdrop of federal incentives ending. Apparently NC isn't like CA, and won't force it's utilities to buy the green power.

     

    http://bit.ly/sro7c0
    15 Dec 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    My favorite line of the story:

     

    "Without an extension of an expiring federal program that would offer a grant of up to $200 million for the 300-megawatt project, it is unlikely to be built in the near term," the Charlotte Business Journal reported."

     

    What is this. Renewables must be funded by the taxpayer. Its their God Given Right.
    15 Dec 2011, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    "Apparently NC isn't like CA"

     

    If it was, I would've exited long ago, as I did CA back in the late 60's. Not that NC is perfect, but it's better ... for the time being since 1975.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. I was waiting for that one to die! Based on what happend to the projects in CA I felt it was a massive misallocation.
    16 Dec 2011, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Remember: BHO's mantra that green = jobs! He doesn't consider that enforced uneconomical green = fewer jobs as money is taken from the economy and misallocated.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    You live here too? Might I enquire region? I'm in the Triangle, been here since 1998. Oh, and even though I'm originally from the Midwest, I do not live in Cary (i.e. Confinement Area for Relocated Yankees). :-)

     

    "If it was, I would've exited long ago, as I did CA back in the late 60's. Not that NC is perfect, but it's better ... for the time being since 1975."
    16 Dec 2011, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    I grew up in Raleigh and went to NCSU. Went to grad school at Northwestern and stayed in the Chicago area. Both areas have much to suggest them. One gets too cold in the winter, the other too hot and sticky in the summer. But there's nothing like the beauty of the Raleigh's blooming dogwoods in the Spring and Chicago's Lakefront in the Summer.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    LabTech: Burlington - just a stone's throw. My last contract with IBM down in RTP was just a 47 mile commute, each way. I was in the IBM offices when 9/11 happened and we all stared at the TV in disbelief!

     

    Later IBM sold the PC business to Lenovo and the contract ended (was developing a Storage Area Network using the PC as a platform to compete with other players - they had no in-house *IX expertise so I was brought in to get them on-board and up using Linux). That product would've likely been used in "cloud apps", although the cloud concept had not been developed yet.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    G'head WT, tell em how wonderful winter is in Chicago. I've seen a lot of winters in a lot of places but none of them compared with three winters in South Bend.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    I'm basically a reversal. I grew up in Iowa and went to UofI in Iowa City. Got my Masters there too, then went to Chicago for my first job at Northwestern's medical campus in downtown Chicago on Superior. Lived in a crappy little studio apartment, but I got to walk up and down the Magnificent Mile everyday on my way to and from work. Loved walking out of my apartment and being on Oak Street beach in 5 minutes during the summer. And nothing is quite as pretty as the lights on the Magnificent Mile during Christmas. Came to Durham in '98 to work at Duke. Summers aren't that bad here, and as for winter, I came to work today in a long sleeve shirt with the sleeves rolled up. The only thing that drives me crazy down here is the month of tree pollen in the Spring from the pine forest that surrounds us. Lots of Zyrtec that month.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John,
    The winters aren't that bad. O.K., so they are, but if you grow up in the Midwest you just accept them and learn to like them. I'll never forget when I first came to NC. We had a big snow storm with 2 ft of snow. Got up the next day and got out my shovel to shovel the driveway. My neighbor asked where I was from, since it was obvious from my old, snow shovel that I wasn't originally from around there!
    16 Dec 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    Since this is location sharing. Grew up in the Wisconsin (Madison) but spent a lot of time on Lake Superior (Apostle Islands area) town called Washburn. Went to UW-Madison then worked for Northwest and then Continental Airlines in Newark, NJ when 9/11 happened.

     

    Saw the second tower get hit from my window and spent the day inspecting planes and the building for bombs. My boss' girlfriend was the United Station mgr where flight 93 left from and therefore knew some of the crew, had incredible guilt and had to go in front of congress twice to get grilled. Her hair fell out and their relationship fell apart under the stress. Remember her security folks followed all Federal protocals so it was simply a dog/pony show bringing her out.

     

    Moved back to Wisconsin when we decided to have kids and have a 4 month old and a 2 yo 2 mo old. Fun, tiring times.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I lived in Phoenix from 59 to 76 and my idea of a hard winter was an eighth inch of ice on the dog's bowl.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Being an (originally) desert-southwest boy, when I flew out here in April '75 I looked down from the plane and saw all the dogwoods in bloom and exclaimed "My God look at all those trees"! :-))

     

    They were absolutely gorgeous.

     

    I now look forward to the spring and autumn of each year - sesaons I had never really experienced like most of the country does.

     

    No plans to move.

     

    'Course, the area has grown, lost a little of its natural beauty.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    JP: when Chi gets a bad one with the "lake effect" it's truly miserable.

     

    Had to go there a few times for co. business at the worst time of the year.

     

    IN has some rough areas too.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    :) HTL, your recollections prompted memory of driving from Texas to the Washington, DC area in mid-60s before completion of I-40 through Tennessee or I-81 up through Western Virginia. I-40 ended heading East at the edge of the Cumberland Plateau. As my wife (who had not previously been out of Texas) and I descended off of the plateau on a two-lane U.S. Highway surrounded by 50-60 ft high deciduous trees she sort of wailed, "I can't see anywhere except straight up!" Something of a shock after a lifetime of views of many square miles of cultivated fields and occasional stands of 20'- 35' tall trees.
    16 Dec 2011, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    I used to be (and still am) big on back roads if I had the time. When I first moved out here, had to make a drive to/from Denver CO to get some my stuff here.

     

    Late night I recall driving winding and rolling two-lane roads where I could see nothing outside of my headlight beams.

     

    Had to stop a wee bit and all I could see were fireflies by the millions. Couldn't see trees (moonless night, no town around. It was eerie.

     

    Coming back was daylight and I saw the smallest trees were likely 50+ feet and think as fleas, to use a phrase I learned out here.

     

    No wonder I couldn't see anything.

     

    Sure is different from the deserts.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I am originally from Iowa. Surprised to see the number of mid-westerners on the board. Actually this board does represent mid-western nice. Like you first accept a person for what they say and then only disrespect them if you find that they are indeed foul.

     

    It is the way in that part of the country. Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Kansas, Missouri, and Indiana. Basically Big Ten country.

     

    As we discover more about each other I am sure we will find reasons we all are attracted to Axion. Can't wait for the stockholders meeting after the stock hits $10.
    16 Dec 2011, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    If you're ever planning on being in Durham during the week send me a PM and we can do lunch.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Will do LabTech! But I don't get out much. I treat this like my job, hit it hard and use the weekends to catch up on reading SA and other articles I couldn't hit during the week.

     

    So, might be a while. :-)) But I won't forget!

     

    Thanks for the invite. I look forward to it!

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2011, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    Axion article just out on Bloomberg!!!

     

    http://bloom.bg/rEnZqH
    15 Dec 2011, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    VERY NICE INDEED!
    15 Dec 2011, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Wow, great find and thank you. Any mention in Bloomberg is going to get a lot of people looking at the stock. hopefully they will find their way to John Petersen's articles on why cheap beats cool. They might actually become new buyers of the stock.

     

    BTW: Whoever was nice enough to sell me a block of shares at around 2:00 PM at $.31, I thank you kindly. From the bottom of my wallet.
    15 Dec 2011, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    For any who wish to follow suit:
    I posted the first reply to the Bloomberg article on their blog below the story.

     

    If any one else wishes to extoll on JP's articles or mention other positive things ( like the white paper,etc..) on the Bloomberg blog, feel free to do so.
    15 Dec 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    The article was sitting in my mailbox from Axion when I just logged on. I do wish they would have talked more about the PbC for auto and rail as well. It was nice of you to mention that in the comments, but I wish it would have come from the authors as well.
    15 Dec 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    LabTech and others,

     

    Don't delay. Tell the world what you want them to know about Axion. Keep it short and simple and lead them to other good research.

     

    This is our chance for real free exposure.
    15 Dec 2011, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just did my bit about the Bloomberg article. Wait until the underinformed author reads all of our replies. Man, is he in for a shock!

     

    Pun intended!
    15 Dec 2011, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Very nice write-up Maya.

     

    I did my part as well. I'm Joe.
    15 Dec 2011, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Great job by all of sending the message without sounding like a PR statement. I guess when its your own money talking we all can speak from the heart.
    15 Dec 2011, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    Here is some info on the author of the article. I wonder if the comments will make him dig a little deeper?

     

    http://buswk.co/rY2VH8
    15 Dec 2011, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Did my part. The rest of you had already extolled the many virtues of the PbC so I felt the need to put my own little "buy American" spin on it. I think Axion is a great Canadian/American success story that is just waiting to happen.
    15 Dec 2011, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Great article, User! Finally a little limelight!

     

    Futurist: Just checked with my broker's assistant, and a little more than 3/5ths of my GTC order at $0.31 hit. Still more time yet today....
    15 Dec 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Better up your bid on the last 2/5....say $3.10 ????? LOL
    15 Dec 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    All of mine was taken out. Lowered my average cost to below $.80.

     

    If this is a falling knife I will lose my whole hand. If it is the bottom I will keep all of my body parts.
    15 Dec 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Maya, a little playful needling of your broker might be fun (not for him).

     

    :-))

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL: Yep! Good idea.

     

    I also find it quite humorous that this column debates "The Manners Of How To Write A Tactful Reply."

     

    This is one heck of a good group. Learning all the time....
    16 Dec 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    Axion's PR group sent a link out at 3:19pm Eastern Time about 30 minutes after User432382's alert in the Concentrator.

     

    I'll quibble with the article in that at the beginning the article makes it look like Axion is merely repackaging standard lead-acid batteries.

     

    Later on, the 1/4 the cost of Lithium Ion and 4-5x the life of lead acid sure statement sounds very apples to oranges to me. Overall, not the sort of article to turn heads but better than a sharp stick in the eye
    15 Dec 2011, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    My other observation was that they didn't hesitate to call it a penny stock ( which it is,now). That is why I think it imperative to boost the knowledge of the company by posting on the blog comments after the article.This is our first real chance at a major financial publication
    15 Dec 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I found it a little worrisome when JP posted over on Brand X that if Axion used its shelf registration today (at current prices .31 - .34) it would only raise about $7M dollars. Somehow my mind had the target capital raise at $18M. Perhaps JP could fill in all the blanks I am leaving - but $7M isn't much money.

     

    $7M would probably get them through 2012 with virtually no CapX spending, but they would be facing another 3rd and 20 at the end of 2012. A price spike is pretty important to increase the amount of capital that could be raised with the shelf registration. I wonder what TG has up his sleeve between now and the end of Q1 2012?
    15 Dec 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I think John was simply stating a fact. He wasn't suggesting that Axion do the shelf at $.31. I'm sure it will be misconstrued by the masses. It always is over there.

     

    But the trick up the sleeve is the NS order, PowerCube order, one auto order, and an extension of the flooded battery contract. All of this will double the revenue for 2012 and make the cash burn a trickle.
    15 Dec 2011, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The number of shares that can be sold pursuant to the shelf cannot exceed 1/3 of the company's float, which is basically stock not held by officers, directors and 10% beneficial owners. Using that definition, Axion's float is about 66 million shares and the maximum number of shares that could be sold is 22 million. Shares times price equals the maximum possible raise. At $0.35 the number is $7 million. At $1.25 it would be closer to $28 million.

     

    There's a very good reason Axion wants to raise money at a better price per share.
    15 Dec 2011, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    C'mon Axion,
    Lets get that NS train rolling so we can sell that shelf registration at $1.25 or more. Toot Toot
    15 Dec 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Futurist> I never thought or suggested JP believed Axion should do the shelf at .31. The important information from John is 22M times price equals maximum capital raise with the shelf, probably minus a discount (up to 20%). Handy math to keep in mind going forward don't cha think?
    15 Dec 2011, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Yes, good info.
    Sorry to have misinterpreted your post. I was a little surprised to find that his comment worried you. Extropolated that to a bad conclusion.
    Srry Mate. I should have known better. A gambler like you doesn't worry that much.
    15 Dec 2011, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Bangwhiz,

     

    It does bring up the point that, we as Axion investors, might have to stop trying to always push the price of the stock down so we can get the lowest price with each purchase. At some point, we are just shooting ourselves in the foot. If Axion can't get it's share price up high enough next spring to make those 22 million share add up to more than $7 million, then what good are all our $0.3 shares? Of course I say that with my average share price at $0.65/share and wishing I had more money to buy shares cheap right now too, but it still is something to consider.
    15 Dec 2011, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >LabTech ... The price will recover when whoever it is that is willing to sell so cheap finally goes away. The only other way it would stay down here is if most of those buying are only looking to make a few pennys. Buy & Hold ... is hope.
    15 Dec 2011, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    "Buy & Hold ... is hope"

     

    And make a lot of batteries! :-)
    15 Dec 2011, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    This 22M share limit seems like an issue. It would appear that even if the shares get back to the .50 level by early 2012, after a placement discount, it'd be under a 8M raise and that's assuming the max raise.

     

    How did Axion raise so much in the past? Do you think they may have to do a "private placement" similar to what was done with Quercus in order to bring in funds that will last past 2012 and not this shelf offering as proposed.

     

    With the current 2M per quarter burn rate I'm not sure a 22M share max raise buys us enough time to get past the small revenues and into the bigger oem orders.

     

    Furthermore, even if TG has good "news" isn't cash flow the issue. News might move the stock price but only incoming revenues can offset Axion's negative income.

     

    I'm sure my above logic is off somewhere so please correct (anyone).
    15 Dec 2011, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure how we "push the price" down. I would think that our group has hopefully put a floor in.

     

    It is the sellers who are killing the price but they become moot as they exit. I just hope that SS is out of bananas soon and has no more friends that want/need out.

     

    I agree that I hope there is dry powder for more buying when the price starts to rise.
    15 Dec 2011, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Financing in small companies is typically an incremental process and the most common number is 12 to 24 months of operating funds. Anything more is a tough sale to investors and a tough sale to management teams that expect their stock price to improve with maturity. The limit of Rule 415 is an annual limit that replenishes itself 12 months after a funding and goes up or down in value with the stock price.

     

    Discounts are common in PIPE transactions, but the word PIPE is an acronym for "private investment in public equity." Discounts are far less common in registered public offerings like the S-3 and when they arise they're typically modest.

     

    Investors always assume that the bottom line has to turn positive for a company to have a decent market valuation and that's simply not the case. Maxwell, for example, carries a ±$450 million market cap based on $100 million of equity, $150 million of sales and a small TTM loss. Even Valence, which is underwater to the tune of $57 million, carries a $135 million market cap based on $50 million in sales and a $12 million annual loss. What Axion needs to do for now is continue a credible revenue ramp.
    16 Dec 2011, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, I've never seen a small company stock make a large sustained advance based on news of an important business development. News has a very short half-life and can influence price for a month or two. Supply and demand dynamics, on the other hand, tend to cycle with each complete turnover of the outstanding stock, although even that number varies depending on the amount of short-term trading activity.

     

    For its first six years as a public company there was no demand for Axion's stock because the company was operating in stealth mode. Total volume from 2004 through 2009 was 11.5 million shares. 2010 volume of 22 million shares was 2x that cumulative number. 2011 volume in the 75 million share range will once again be roughly 2x the cumulative number through the end of 2010. Axion is just now getting to a point where I'd call the market liquid and active. To put it in perspective most of the companies I track turn their floats two to five times a year.

     

    The first turnover which is just now coming to an end is usually a deep down cycle because holders get impatient and push the stock price down. Once the stock is owned by people who bought at bargain prices are in control, the market price moves to meet their expectations. That means the second and third turnings are generally a good deal more positive.

     

    I've seen the dynamic more times than I can recount. I've never been able to predict the when with precision, but sure as night follows day the price dynamic will change completely when the last of today's willing sellers runs out of stock.
    16 Dec 2011, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    When I read the first comment on the Bloomberg article ,I wondered who it was. I knew who it was not.
    15 Dec 2011, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I do resemble that remark.
    15 Dec 2011, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Hi, Axionists

     

    I tried uploading comment on Bloomberg but failed. I do not know why. I read comments by you guys and think they have a little too much hype atmosphere. It may cause side effect. Just cool down a little bit and I suggest you guys go like " This is a pretty interesting small company. Do your own due diligence though. Some articles below" and provide links. Investors are very cautious about hype.
    We have to very skillfully introduce them to Seeking Alpha and other sources.

     

    Just my 2cents. Thanks!
    15 Dec 2011, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Like the Chevy Volt, Tesla, or AONE, and now the Leaf haven't enjoyed any hype? Juz kidding.
    15 Dec 2011, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Your perspective is shared here, pianomanshl. I read comments like "best battery for start/stop" and immediately flinch in anticipation of the obvious come back, "If its the best and cheap then why is it not being used?" Until an actual "design win" in start/stop materializes the prospect is no more tangible than "a bird in the bush" or "eye candy" walking down the steet.
    15 Dec 2011, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    I agree. There's a real art to being promotional without looking like you've drunk too much Axion cool-aid.

     

    Remember, one key person reading the comments is the author or the article; we're really like him to write another.

     

    I posted a simple 1 sentence link to Rosewater; the comment is currently in the review process.
    15 Dec 2011, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    No good deed goes unpunished ... don't include links ... reposted without the link and it was immediately "approved."
    16 Dec 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Out of all the opportunities the PbC offers the one that intrigues me the most is the PowerCube and the Viridity connection because it generates revenue. Second is the NS and Rosewater projects that reduce overhead and conserve energy for the companies that adopt the technology. Last but not least is the multi-billion dollar emerging stop-start automotive standard.

     

    Next year we need to be thinking about buying a PowerCube. I have retirement income that I need to be thinking about...
    15 Dec 2011, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    I started following the company since early 2009. The idea that a simple lead acid battery, that is 99% recyclable, is able to take a charge and deliver a discharge, without dying quickly simply has 1,000s of possibilities for use. We have no clue where the best application of this product will be. Could be those you mentioned. Could be one that some garage techy mechanic guy has floating in his head right now. JP always thought an oil rig would use the drill head going down the shaft motion in a regenerative battery charge. Apparently that isn't as feasible as he thought. Somewhere somebody will find a regenerative use that is better than any field we have talked about to date.
    But for now we wait on those applications you suggested for our bread and butter. At least I hope that is the case. But I'm with you on one theme. The applications that save companies money (or makes companies money) will be the first applications that buy the PbC.
    15 Dec 2011, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    :) Futurist, we think alike on the question of "where the best application of this product will be." JP's thought about capturing gravitational energy on downhole leg of pipe string "trips" could well be realized. Once PowerCube's are established I don't think it will take all that long for rig architects/engineers to devise and install alternator drive systems beneath rig floors. One should be able to devise a system that is triggered on removal of the "slips" holding pipe in place while an additional joint of pipe is added to the string that presses rollers (encasing shafts driving alternators) against the pipe as it starts to move downward. I wouldn't think the apparatus needs to be very large, clutter the rig deck in any way or entail a lot of cost. But, it does require development of a system that is external to the PowerCube as well as complementary to it. And, there could be timing issues between when the gravitational energy is available for capture and when PowerCubes can absorb the power generated.
    15 Dec 2011, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    "But I'm with you on one theme. The applications that save companies money (or makes companies money) will be the first applications that buy the PbC."

     

    Especially in light of rising fuel prices and/or a struggling economy...
    16 Dec 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2726) | Send Message
     
    Elevators in highrise buildings. Lots of gravitational and kinetic energy involved, with most of it wasted as heat.

     

    Many cycles per day = high cycle frequency usage of the PbC. High peak power in the "accelerate to speed" part of the up-elevator cycle and "slow to stop" of the down-cycle requires high power for a few seconds. That uses the high charge-discharge current capability of the capacitor-like part of the PbC to very good advantage.

     

    It seems an obvious application to me, and I know others have thought about it. TG is a veteran of the elevator industry, after all.

     

    An interesting point is that a brush type DC motor might be used for the elevator drive that would allow the PbC to operate at DC and so avoid the loses and expense of a DC to AC converter.
    Less capital expense = faster recovery of investment.

     

    This all assumes the numbers work.

     

    16 Dec 2011, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    See, you have a great idea and you are not an inventor. Wait till the inventors start mulling this product over.
    16 Dec 2011, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Piano.
    I respect your view but dissagree with it. Every thing in this world is about hype .Independent investors are not stupid they do as much DD as they can, Axion will sell it's self we just need to stimulate their intreats. The less intelligent invetors hand their money to others to invest for them (rip them off )
    15 Dec 2011, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Have to agree with you Gerry W,
    Any publicity is good for Axion right now. The fact that investors will stand up and share their insights and the facts can not hurt Axion. Sure we are boosters. But we have facts that we can lead the other interested persons to find.

     

    This is a microcap stock. We don't often get the privilege of corresponding with the stock buying public that reads bloomberg for its information. Just give them the facts. Let publicity take care of itself.
    15 Dec 2011, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Agreed Gerry and Futurist,

     

    The article could have been almost anything if it had Axion's name in it it is a positive. I think JP once talked about being a bit worried running into CEO's of companies that he talked about, perhaps, not in the greatest of terms, but it turned out the CEO's would thank him.

     

    Investors may not remember the whole story on Bloomberg or all the comments that follow. However, one thing is for sure, (especially in regards to the comments making an impression) the next time that investor sees Axion's name somewhere they will think to themselves, "Shoot!...I *really* need to look into that company."
    16 Dec 2011, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Sorry for the misspellings , hit the publish instead of the spelling check ,technology makes you very lazy
    15 Dec 2011, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Gerry, Futurist - while i agree that "hype" abounds in many venues, there is a difference between "hard" sell and "soft" sell. There is no question in my mind the "hard" sell approach can in and of itself turn potential investors away from investigating further.
    15 Dec 2011, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >TWIMC ... As long as we're being all critical here, I'll jump right in. I loved seeing an article where the world gets the chance to read the name of Axion Power in a mainstream publication.

     

    The only thing that struck me as over the top was a comment by "GUEST" when he said "... ,the share price is about to rocket". A totally unknown statement. I hope it's true, but sounds so ... I don't know ... like one of those free news letters. He went on to say " ... glad ...the opportunity to see the lithium hype disappear in it's wake". Well, we all know the lithium hype is not going to disappear nor will Li-on. Axion is a solution among many and all are needed. Too "Lord of the Rings", but a little PR for our favorite lead solution is nice to see. I would refrain from unfounded declarations like "it's the best" for this or that and it's best to let the investor assess facts not feelings and let the market determine what Axion is "best" at.

     

    I guess I'm just too much a "Joe Friday" type. I do enjoy seeing the enthusiasm of this Concentrator out in the real world. Good job all.
    15 Dec 2011, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    DRich .
    You criticize Guest because of conjecture,yet you state that,that lithium hype will not diasappear. You do not know that. Criticism for criticism sake is no help.
    16 Dec 2011, 05:00 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Gerry W ... An object in motion tends to continue to stay in motion.
    16 Dec 2011, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    I was tempted to say it went over my head,but it did not. Unless it meets an unmovable object. Lead in enough quantity has a big mass and can be unmovable.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Gerry W ... At my age the eye sight is fading. I can't see that immovable object on the road to the future, yet. I can see what looks to be speed bumps made with some dull silver material and maybe a growing pothole. I can't really tell for sure. I've been on this, or similar, roads before but I drive slow and get passed quite often. I can judge what may be ahead but I only know what I can see.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I posted my comment to the BB article - thanks for your lead Futurist.
    15 Dec 2011, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Liked your comment and all of the others. Some are always worried that people will hear to much and be turned off by the noise. Its possible. I would suggest that anyone new reading those comments will either be intrigued by the relationships, the product, or the fact that so many supporters exist for a small company. In any case it has a better chance of leading new stockholders or new customers to Axion than silence.
    It would be a shame if no one commented and the author thought " crap,no one knows about this little company and I don't need to know anymore either."
    15 Dec 2011, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Hey Futurist, I was the third commenter under Gman. Thanks for the little push. I can't see any comments for the article when I open it from my work computer. I was wondering if the problem is here with the damn DSL at my site. Can you still see al the comments? How many are there?

     

    Thanks in advance
    15 Dec 2011, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I counted 9 remarks and no remark from KentG
    15 Dec 2011, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Thx Bang, For my remark I used Gman as my name. Talked about JP.
    15 Dec 2011, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Sadly, we know that on the Yahoo board there are paid pumpers and bashers. So the trick is be factual, but do you best not to look like either. Also, I think short and sweet (with pointers to the details) beats a long "argument for the defense." My $.02
    16 Dec 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I'm not to worried about the hype, although my approach was to simply write a summary of key market possibilities for Axion's PbC battery. . Intelligent investors filter hype comments out and pay attention to the more reasoned remarks - they are par for the course including the trolls and bashers for comment threads. Not that we shouldn't be careful with what we say and how we say it, but given how few people are aware of Axion all publicity is good publicity to me.
    15 Dec 2011, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article on the California ISO and beginning to allow demand response ... opens up a big potential market for the power cube.

     

    http://bit.ly/vnXi3H
    15 Dec 2011, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    Hype is not a concern with Axion. In all my trading small caps I've never seen a company do so much yet say so little.

     

    We live in a trading world where most small cap companies put out PR and IR campaigns whenever there is an inkling, of a rumor, of a relationship, with somebody that might maybe bring in an ounce or two of revenues way down the road.

     

    Axion, on the other hand, only speaks after the fact.
    15 Dec 2011, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Bloomberg comment section does not allow link to other site. I really wanted to introduce potential investors to JP's article on seeking alpha, so I used other method. hope it will work.
    15 Dec 2011, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    I placed a link to this concentrator on the Bloomberg comment section (wish the had an edit function - my formatting is all messed up!)...
    16 Dec 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    John, were you involved in bringing Quercus into Axion?

     

    Is it likely that Axion is still reaching out to institutional Investors who specialize in energy and Greentech (or do they come to Axion and would this process be in the later inning already). And how long do these discussions normally take (months).

     

    For example, do the two parties start far apart (ie did Quercus want a bigger or smaller stake then what was settled upon; did they want a big discount to the then pps)? I'm sure Quercus didn't just come right in and give Axion 20M without some haggling. Things like warrants, strike price, board seats, etc all must have been negotiated/contested.

     

    Would you imagine Axion is far along in this process right with whoever our next white knight maybe. And to what extent does the current market price enter into the negotiation. Or if someone is bringing in 10M+ does market price not matter too much since both parties know that kind of money would move the market if someone sat on the bid all month buying (similar to how SS has killed us by sitting on the offer).

     

    Thank you for your insights.
    16 Dec 2011, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Since the Quercus financing was the last project I did as legal counsel for Axion, it would be improper for me to discuss details and discussions that are not public. The closing price of Axion's common stock was $2.15 on January 14, 2008. The details of the Quercus transaction are reported here - http://1.usa.gov/vG70me

     

    Significant fundraising transactions typically take several months to pull together. You start with a long list of potential investors and then narrow it down to a short list of willing investors. From there you start negotiating, mixing and matching the needs of your short list to arrive at deal terms that everyone can live with. Since there are so many variables, each deal is different and there's really no way to guess at what the discussions have been. The only things I can predict with confidence are that Axion's list is getting short and the discussions and negotiations have been extensive.

     

    It's very hard to convince an investor that he should pay a premium to the market because you believe there's a supply and demand imbalance or some other anomaly. I have, however, seen a number of deals where the parties agreed to wait until an anomaly resolved itself before finalizing their price negotiations.

     

    Tom Granville is a very deliberate and careful negotiator. He doesn't seek to take advantage of anyone, but he won't be taken advantage of either. He always knows the cards in his hand and plays them carefully. I'm a pretty fair negotiator in my own right, but Tom's taken me to the woodshed a couple times when I had to negotiate with him. I won't start second guessing him now.
    16 Dec 2011, 05:29 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    John, thank you for the above response.

     

    Also do we know if management/employees have any anti-dilution provisions. And/or can we expect this down round to sting them as hard (or harder) as any of us investors who got in closer to $1.

     

    Furthermore, will option pricing be reset as we saw with Quercus during the last raise. Is there any waivers needed by existing investors. I'm just trying to factor in a fully diluted scenario when this thing does head back toward those option strikes.
    16 Dec 2011, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Nobody has any anti-dilution protection and Quercus owns the only significant block of warrants or options. A down round would hurt the old guard far more than the new.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    The Bloomberg article is now fading into old news . Congratulations to those who got in fast and were not afraid of the slings and arrows which are part and parcel of a quick response.
    16 Dec 2011, 03:38 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Gerry,
    Nice response to the California article. You are the new Axion PR department.
    16 Dec 2011, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Nice indeed. On checking a moment ago, the California article had three comments mentioning Axion favorably.

     

    The Bloomberg article had 12 comments at last check, all favorable, with the most recent mentioning AXPW, unlike a host of other players in the news, is a public company presenting small investors with an opportunity to participate to market growth.
    16 Dec 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I remember when the first article I ever read about Axion was a small piece concerning how the company had bought an old battery plant. Somewhere it mentioned they had a new idea for a battery. My interest was peaked and I have become an Axionist (sic).

     

    This gets me thinking. I'm not good at social networking but couldn't ten or so of us create a facebook page and share information about Axion through other clean tech blogs and investment forums? I do not use social media but would be willing to learn. It simply seems to me that the Axion story needs to grow in order for those inventors out there to figure out how to use it.

     

    Just a thought.
    16 Dec 2011, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    This is a thought that is worth discussion here and consideration if not direct action. I am all for it.
    To give the public links to articles & pertinent info, an extension of this concentrator (lead people here) and to tell the AXPW story could only be good.
    16 Dec 2011, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    A good thought. ISTR that we have a sales-oriented individual participating here.

     

    I await his opinion (BW? Are you thinking?)

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Just and FYI: pre-market we see MM BTIG in again at 5K @ $0.33 offer.

     

    This was in place all day yesterday and *never* varied even though almost 60K shares trade at that price.

     

    I've not posted my thoughts from yesterday yet, but this is mentioned in what I will post.

     

    I conclude that BTIG is the MM/broker being used by some "larger" seller(s) and they are *either* violating the FINRA/SEC rules requiring *presentation* of the full amount offered or they are honoring a "reserve quantity".

     

    Regardless, the point is that there's a lot more shares backed up behind that offer, unless they are running out or shorting (legal if they borrowed stock, but why at this price?).

     

    Until they are exhausted, we are likely "capped" at $0.33, since that seem to be their price regardless of what the market might support. Otherwise they would have adjusted behavior to see what might be supported.

     

    If you see them withdraw for a while and come back at another price, I'll think they're acting "smarter" and in the best interests of their client(s) (and us too!).

     

    http://bit.ly/w1572e

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Q: Is it "hype" if it's factual? I think not. However, *presentation* does make a difference and could be perceived as "hype".

     

    Avoidance of superlatives helps. Inclusion of verifiable facts and links, if possible, to supporting citations helps.

     

    An occasional gleeful giggle should do little harm. :-)) (giggling here)

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): EOD wrap for some metrics I watch. 12/15/2011

     

    At 11:13:30 MM BTIG put in 5k offer @ $0.33, it stayed there all day, never increasing or decreasing even as trades went at $0.33. Apparently this was something like a "reserve order" *or* the market-maker was *not* displaying the full order book at that level, violating the recent FINRA/SEC rules IIUC.

     

    50.359K shares traded when the best offer was that of BTIG *presenting* 5K @ $0.33. There were nine trades. 5K never changed. ~50.5K ouf a day's total of 324.84K is pretty hefty.

     

    So who is the market-maker BTIG?

     

    http://bit.ly/w1572e

     

    We had a lower high today, $0.345 (vs. $0.36, but that was only 400 shares, seen before on 12/12 so I don't trust it - discounting it would make that high yesterday $0.35 yesterday), an unchanged low ($0.31), reduced volume of 324.68K (vs. 411.4K) and ended with a "doji" (open and close the same, $0.33). All this is suggesting continued indecision.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 122,059, 169,062 and 33,563 respectively. Buy:sell ended at ~1:1.39 and buy:(sell+unknown) at 1:1.66. So in spite of BTIG keeping price capped low, there were still trades coming in to meet the bids.

     

    Daily short sales moved back up: short sales 113,909, 35.08%. Fairly low. Combined with the buy:sell ratio and the knowledge of BTIG action, I feel that at least some of the market-maker(s) (BTIG at least) are still in a long position. If BTIG, e.g., is both broker and market-maker and they have a large sell order from one of their broker clients, this suggests my general thoughts on market-maker(s) in general being in a long position is unlikely.

     

    If the Bloomberg article has much market-effect, this long-position could be quickly taken out. But considering the season, allowing a delay for DD, ... I can't decide for myself if this seems likely.

     

    Prognosis for now is more of the same - consolidation continues.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Looks like the other 2/5ths of my GTC order got filled already today.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article posted on the ZBB board:

     

    Grid Integration, Part 2: The Rubik’s Cube of Renewable Energy
    Can the California ISO’s new Flexible-Ramp software tool line up 33 percent renewables and a fast, diverse, competitive market?

     

    http://bit.ly/vnXi3H

     

    Oh, and the PowerCube got mentioned in the Comments :-)
    16 Dec 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    "“California has seen sudden changes over a 10-minute period as large as 800 megawatts and 1,200 megawatts of wind generation dropping,” according to Abdul-Rahman. “These drops in supply require greater system flexibility and ramp capability” to sustain grid reliability."
    That's a whole lot of PowerCubes worth of back-up! Obviously that can't be all battery back-up, but it does point to the fact that even a fraction of that is a lot of money.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Sorry lsd_lsm, missed your posting of this article earlier.

     

    It's Fast and Furious on the Axion Concentrator!

     

    ... so much great info it's hard to keep up!
    16 Dec 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    HTL...there is some serious selling this morning. But I noticed something different this morning, Schwab shows one of the MM's trading on HDSN, they always have the high & low bid/ask.
    Always before the low bid was .16...today it is .30, and ask has risen from .60 to .78..
    I just find this interesting...any thoughts?
    16 Dec 2011, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Other than some folks play a "fat finger chance", no opinion on those.

     

    But today, we have a competitor for BTIG, PUMA.

     

    http://bit.ly/u1etAn

     

    The have also been displaying a consistent 5K offer at $0.31 and no matter how much is bought at $0.31, offer quantity stays unchanged so far. And 120.989 shares have gone @ $0.31.

     

    Now, the Q for me becomes: is this predominately tax-loss selling? I'm suspecting such because of what the change has seemed like over the last few days.

     

    Then, will $0.30 hold under this kind of pressure? ATM 192K *presented* at $0.30 and no offers. So sellers are having to come in and meet the bid for these to go off at that price.

     

    So far (11:03:33) 113.3K traded at that price.

     

    *IF* we can assume that these bids also are *presenting only a portion of the real quantities (PUMA and BTIG are both also on that side of the board), I think we hold.

     

    Further, seeing PUMA and BTIG on both side of the board, and seeing them presenting only portions of their true order depth on both sides (apparently - won't know until they get to the "top" or their quantities change on a trade, which I might miss) I ... adjust my tin-foil hat and ...

     

    Say this sure looks like some manipulation to help some bigger folks (maybe the market-maker(s) themselves) acquire (AXPW) at dirt cheap prices.

     

    *IF* this is truly happening, there's several things to look forward to down the road.

     

    Some "analysts" or "brokerage firms" or paid minions of such issuing positive comments about AXPW.

     

    Some positive real news should also come not directly related to this.

     

    Price being supressed as it tries to move up on such. These firms that are doing what they're doing now will be selling hard into any rally in pps at some point.

     

    This will make it harder for AXPW to hit the most attractive price for any new issuance.

     

    The only way I see to overcome this gets to JP's supply/demand issues. Whatever comes out must be so powerful that it absolutely overwhelms the selling by these firms.

     

    I've posted this "The Market Participant Playbook" before, but some may not have seen it.

     

    http://bit.ly/tI8tmZ

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION (SA EDIT BROKEN FOR ME ATM) Quantities w/o "K" after them should be interpreted as "thousand".

     

    Apologies.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    The manipulation has been palpable for some months now, would you agree? So I wonder is the same manipulation tolerated on larger exchanges like AMEX. If not, I believe that in itself would be good reason to do a reverse split and you would have the added benefit of being more visible to funds that won't go near the Bulletin Board.

     

    We have market makers and whoever sitting at the Special Sits desk knowing the market dynamics and supply demand of this stock very well. A guy working at Special Sits could say to himself, "I could careless how much money I lose SS on this tiny thing, I am going to drive the price down and every time it looks like it might rise again, I am going to knock it down some more until SS is out and I want in."

     

    These guys at PUMA and BTIG and other MM's could themselves be playing the bid/ask spread?

     

    I think at some point Axion has to suck it up and say, "Our shareholders are getting slaughtered. Our commercial viability has taken longer than expected. It is time for a 5:1 reverse split and move to the AMEX." Reverse split might be bad if it does not help with the exchange you are on, but in this case going from the BB to the AMEX seems well worth it.

     

    I do not know what the drawback of that would be. Thoughts from those more experienced than myself?
    16 Dec 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    JAK: "The manipulation has been palpable for some months now, would you agree?"

     

    Not really, from the mechanics of it and the environment.

     

    "So I wonder is the same manipulation tolerated on larger exchanges like AMEX."

     

    Emphatically, manipulation is rife regardless of exchange or listed or not. One of the most manipulated that I track is CPST and it's a NASDAQ listing. Failure of the SEC to tear themselves away from watching porn on the computers (reported with video a couple years ago), failure of FINRA/SEC to impose fines that make the risk reward unfavorable for manipulation (I think, like "legal fees", just a cost of doing business), failure to have adequate staff to regulate effectively at all levels (this may be a good thing - there's pros and cons) so that only "large and egregious" violations are pursued, ...

     

    All MHO of course.

     

    Anyway, reverse split shouldn't be enough. It's the market cap and float that could affect it. If those are large enough they become attractive targets for constant and on-going manipulation. At some point, *that* could attract regulatory scrutiny and make certain folks more cautious.

     

    "We have market makers and whoever sitting at the Special Sits desk knowing the market dynamics and supply demand of this stock very well."

     

    That and the rest of the paragraph is on the mark. But it applies regardless of markets, listed or not, ... it's always determined by a combination of factors that make it an attractive target. That, for example, is why if you look at historical semi-monthly short reports for AXPW, shorts are very low, with a couple very brief exceptions.

     

    "We have market makers and whoever sitting at the Special Sits desk knowing the market dynamics and supply demand of this stock very well."

     

    Absolutely! And articles are written that detail that. But it's been so long since I looked at them, I'd have to dig. Let me know if you would like a few links, or if you're feeling energetic, Google or Investopedia should get your there quickly.

     

    "I think at some point Axion has to suck it up and say ..."

     

    This is where I disagree. *Traders* are maybe losing some, but *investors* that see the timeline and ignore these daily perturbations are *not*.

     

    I only track the daily moves as a service to myself (and any who want to watch) so that I can identify good entry points for my investing blocks and entry/exit for my few trading blocks. And even with my trading blocks, I don't worry because I have that timeline stretching ahead of me.

     

    *Unless* there are attempts to destroy the company by shorters and the like, which I don't see, these daily up/down and the effect on *today's* portfolio value don't bother me. I could've got in lower? Doesn't matter. I could've sold higher? Doesn't matter. Also MHO.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't think you're seeing manipulation. What you're seeing is a classic case of what happens when there's more selling pressure than buying volume. Whenever you get that kind of imbalance holders who want to sell start pushing and shoving around the pay window to be the first in line and the bid falls. The dynamic doesn't change till everyone who wants to sell has sold. Then, unless buying demand dries up at the same time, it's like flipping a light switch.
    16 Dec 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL and JP,

     

    HTL, that relieves some of my nagging questions about the whole bulletin board vs AMEX thing and I am very satisfied with that. Your response is logical and it also ties up and kills my growing unrealistic conspiracy theory that Market Makers secretly want to destroy Axion Powers stock.

     

    JP, The simple explanation that there's more selling pressure than buying volume is obviously waaaayyy to trite for a man of my sophistry.

     

    Seriously, thanks for grounding me guys. Another benefit of this concentrator so I can talk through my thoughts, irrational or not, and have people pull me back and say, "You are not quite right and a bit off track. Here is the reality of the situation..."
    16 Dec 2011, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    HTL, thanks for reposting.
    16 Dec 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    another interesting point.... bid size of 1,408 @ .30 has not changed even with all the heavy selling this a.m. (even blocks of 25,000 doesn't lower the size)
    16 Dec 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Triple bottom now in play?

     

    Selling at hectic pace today (after an hour, already 244,202 shares moved). Guess I could have nabbed shares at 30 cents rather than 31.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Most Fridays are slow. HTL has noted in the past Fridays especially toward the end of the day it seems the selling action stops. I am hoping someone just wants to take the day-off early, like lunch time or now would be nice.

     

    We know next week will be slow market week with Christmas so, once again, is this the last hurrah?!? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome...I am afraid we are all certifiable.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jakurtz: Have we also not seen a pick up in selling coming in at the end of the month?

     

    HTL: Haven't we noticed this before?
    16 Dec 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Maya: my brain is so befuddled and befogged with so many issues ATM, I can't recall.

     

    But book closing times, EOQ, EOY, etc. are often marked by odd behavior, termed "window dressing" for the general activity of making portfolios look good and locking in bonuses, etc.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Welcome to my world Maya. Never bought a share of Axion at any price that wasn't underwater before I could blink.
    16 Dec 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    I wish I had the courage to pull the trigger on more
    16 Dec 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I wish I had the money to pull the trigger on more :)
    16 Dec 2011, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Same here Cory :)
    16 Dec 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    I wish I had the self-discipline to stop thinking of pulling the trigger, knowing I'm already way overweight.

     

    "Bears make money, bulls make money, hogs get slaughtered".

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    HTL or WT, How do the buys keep going off @ .30 but the buy/size does not change. Is this a market to market exchange, a broker with two clients trading internally or two brokers trading externally, i guess?
    16 Dec 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    JAK I just posted on that this A.M. and touched on it again in a new comment a few moments ago.

     

    SA's "failure to flag" bug is probably biting you. In a (almost) one liner, sort of (everybody can applaud me now :-))

     

    "What you see is not what you get". There's *presented* quantity and the real quantity which may not be shown. Computers manage it all too.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >HTL ... I don't know if this is just my trading platform or not, but I have a button for entering "Anonymous" buy/sell in Level II. It will show a minimum offer of 100 or a slider up to the limit of my offer. This amount is what is shown to other Level II traders. For an additional fee (I think it's $60/mo) I can get a feed from the NASDAQ called "Total View" (again, I don't know if this is just my platform name for it) and it will show every bid/ask offering broken down into whatever traunches the dealer has broken it up into. I've been told (by a less than trustworthy trader that has this) that the offering traunches are client coded. I don't know.

     

    I've never bought into this because I've no interest in trying to front run or go HFT. I do know there are data feeds out there that will give you a lot more granularity than Level II. Everything for a price.
    16 Dec 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    There are hidden bids & asks on all exchanges, I used to use e-trade and it had on icon to "hide bid" that I used a lot. So the bid/ask sizes not changing with 1,408 bid & ask @ 5000 with 200k shrs. traded tells me there is basically one or two sellers and a ton of buyers/&one big buyer at .30. If .30 holds then someone is willing to take all the sellers shares at that price and your triple bottom is in & more important, someone big is accumulating at .30.

     

    re your question on other exchanges & reverse split: all exchanges are the same. It would make no difference. They can manipulate APPL & they can sure still manipulate AXPW (which I don't think they are). I just think someone wants out and this is the price someone/alot of us have been willing to give on large volume of shares. (but remember-I think someone much larger than us is buying here at .30 too- because the price was rock solid here)

     

    The reverse split won't change any of this. If it happened today without powerful news to over come the selling, then true traders will short the heck out of it and drive it 50% lower so fast your head will spin. Because there is no catalyst to make it go higher. Just go look at Citigroup(symbol C)
    16 Dec 2011, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Yes! That's what I've been calling the "reserve quantity", ETrade's nomenclature. That's why I've had to note that the MMs may not be violating the recent new "show what you've got" regulation as they are allowed to honor the "reserve quantity" by any name when a customer requests it.

     

    'Course with so many MMs also being brokers (the "customer" of the MM unit), there's no likelihood of ever seeing enforcement of the rule by the FINRA/SEC folks.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Next Concentrator now under way:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Dec 2011, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2726) | Send Message
     
    >HTL: Is the jump in CPST price and volume caused by short covering? It seems to have the characteristics, but my "technical" knowledge is very limited.
    16 Dec 2011, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    SHB: I really have no way to know. All I can tell you is that the last many days (at least a week maybe?) they bid has been pecked (constant small trades hitting the bid regardless of big or small buy imbalance) drive the price lower and lower. Just before EOD a buy:sell is biased to the sell side and then the closing block brings in a little more balance.

     

    I new something was up today when the opening block traded 446.28K, a *very* unusually large block. Throughout the day, bid pecking kept it down,

     

    The last 15 minutes traded 2.6794M shares (1.11M at 15:59), over 50% of the day's total so far of 4.637M (very large increase over the 10-day average of 2.59M).

     

    My *guess* (emphasized) is this is not short covering as *usually* that happens very stealthily and the shorts are quite adept at this.

     

    My best guess is "window dressing" by a bunch of larger holders (institutions, hedgies, ...) looking to close books looking good for customers and securing bonuses for "a job well done".

     

    E.g, if I hold a couple million shares I can buy 50K-100K more at rising prices with little effect on my real cost per share. If a bunch of other larger holders do something similar at a (un)coordinated (HAH! They all know the game - no communication is needed anymore) last 15 minutes in the day, we can drive price from $1.04 at 15:46 to $1.15 at 15:59 (+10.57%) for a relatively piddling amount of cash. This is what we saw today.

     

    Now, 16:51, pps is back to $1.06. But it doesn't matter because we operate on the closing price.

     

    And we can also get some of our money back by selling the shares we just bought back into the market AH or in subsequent days.

     

    A trade of 567,828 shares (~1/4 of the volume traded in the last 15 minutes) just got traded at 16:51 for $1.0602.

     

    So let's say I was tardy and bought that amount at $1.15 and now sell it back for $1.0602. My buy was $653,002.20, my sell was $602,011.25 and my total cost for looking good to my customers and securing my EOY-based bonus was $50,990.95.

     

    For larger "players", this is likely less than they move every normal day in trading.

     

    Another benefit is that many naive folks may jump in the following days thinking this is "real". So many of the shares might get unloaded at a price higher than $1.0602, meaning the realized cost will be smaller.

     

    So, there's my "tin-foil hat brain dump".

     

    I expect price to retreat again. Time-frame unknown as I don't know when all the books are closed. But with holidays approaching I suspect many close around this time. I've not several years that volume drops substantially in the last couple weeks in December.

     

    One other possibility is *big* news, but that liklihood seems remote this time of year.

     

    We'll be able to make a better guess around three weeks from now when the semi-monthly short report for this period comes out. But even that's iffy, as shorts could jump the stock at this price. But I suspect they'll just twiddle their thumbs, knowing what this action was.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    BTW, want to know the sad part? All day long I kept saying I should buy when it was down at $1.01-$1.03 because I suspected after a week of bid pecking something might pop today.

     

    But I kept telling myself that I'm waiting for the trend change - stick to the plan dummy! :-((

     

    A one-day 10% gain would've been just ... "tasty".

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2726) | Send Message
     
    >HTL: Roger. I wondered why the oh so obvious jump in price and trade volume in the last few minutes. As you say, short covering shouldn't have been so blatant!

     

    Am I right in assuming that those managers who didn't want to hold the stock over the holidays would have sold out over a longer period in the weeks before the "drop dead" date for closing the books?
    Only those wanting to hold the stock for a longer term would bother to play the window dressing game. Maybe. Sigh.

     

    I knew there was a reason I invest and bottom fish rather than "trade". I'm just not that good at games.
    16 Dec 2011, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    SHB: "Am I right in assuming that those managers who didn't want to hold the stock over the holidays would have sold out over a longer period in the weeks before the "drop dead" date for closing the books?"

     

    That's really beyond what I've learned so far. But I can tell you that on another board there's a guy that reports institutional holdings as they are reported and, as you suggest, we do see IHs sometime reducing positions and others adding. Reporting is delayed, of course, and mostly it looks like EOQ is when they make their filings.

     

    Anyway, from what he's posted in the past, I believe you are correct. Further,some just reduce or add. I believe this would be taking profits based on some trading plan and profit targets and adding at attractive entry points to do a trade cycle again.

     

    This seems supported by that link I've posted about "Market Participant's ...". I can post the link again if you've missed it.

     

    He uses a service ... hang on I'll get the link ...

     

    http://www.mffais.com

     

    I don't know what's free and what's not. I've not yet had time to pursue myself.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 07:07 PM Reply Like
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