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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Concentrator 34: Beginning Dec. 16, 2011, jakutz's article 171 comments
    Dec 16, 2011 12:34 PM

    Folks! jarkutz wrote an excellent article about Axion Power International. Just as when I first sought Seeking Alpha to publish my intitial Axion summation of the June 20 Investors' Conference, jarkutz learned that Seeking Alpha chooses to not publish any articles about stocks priced under $1.00. Upon discovering this fact, jarkutz approached me to have his article lead off a new Concentrator. I could not resist such a generous offer.

    Below is jarkutz's article.

    ####

    Axion Power: The Buy Of The Decade


    I want to start by clearing away a few things so no one is confused. I am not an expert financier (I know a little), I am not a battery tech geek (I know a little) and I am not John Petersen (I do know him). So why am I writing an article on a stock I have limited credentials on? I believe I have a unique perspective that comes from being a non-believer to an AXPWgelical.

    Axion Power Finances:

    I am starting with their finances because this one aspect many retail investors over look, and their finances alone make a compelling case to buy the stock now, considering a 30M market cap.

    Start off with debt, their only debt reported on their most recent 10K is made up of grants and one $500k loan held at 3% interest backed by the equipment purchased. This means no one owns there products, patents, and assets other than the shareholders.

    At their New Castle, PA plant, they have two traditional lead acid battery lines that can produce 2000 batteries a day. Running at only 80% capacity at $50/battery that is a potential revenue of $20M/Year. The same plant also has the capacity to produce 1000 AGM batteries at $120 each producing revenue of $24M at just 80% capacity. Running their current plant at 80% capacity would produce $44 Million a year in revenue and roughly $6.6M in gross profit. Their hard assets are equal to $13.3M. If you factor in their New Castle plant they bought for $700K on foreclosure that would easily account for the remaining shareholders equity of $17.5M (current Market cap at 30.8M minus 13.3M in hard assets).

    You may have noticed I have not mentioned any income thus far being derived from their proprietary PbC Battery technology that will potentially be a disruptive technology. It is no less than extraordinary that I just justified buying the company at the current market price on finances alone, and I did not even need to mention what the company is all about...the PbC battery, which holds extraordinary growth potential.

    Axion Power's Technology and Business Model:

    Axion Power's technology is their proprietary negative carbon electrode. A battery manufacturer will substitute their negative lead based electrode in standard AGM batteries with Axion's carbon based electrode. Sort of like intel selling chips to computer manufacturers. The battery is the computer, the chip is the electrode. A common bit of confusion for a lot of people watching Axion Power is that they believe Axion wants to be a battery manufacturer and therefore should be doing everything traditional battery manufacturers do to sell their product, i.e. publish technical spec, list cost, etc. The problem with this is Axion does not want to be a battery manufacturer, they only want to sell their electrode to battery manufacturers, but in order to do that they have to prove the PbC is a better battery to existing OEM's. So in the short term, they have to make the battery for demonstration and testing purposes, but the last thing they want to do is put existing battery manufacturers (their future customers) into a corner by publishing technical specifications or pricing too early. The beauty of this is they will not be in competition with anyone and they will be making the highest margin possible since no one will be able to make their electrode without infringing on their patents. I think Buffett might call that a moat.

    Axion's recent White Paper does however show categorically the superiority of their PbC technology over existing VRLA/AGM batteries (www.axionpower.com/Profiles/Investor/Inv...=) The White Paper illustrates how their PbC battery shows 10x-20x higher Dynamic Charge Acceptance after 2-9 months and 5-10x shorter charge after 2-9 months than VRLA/AGM. Both of these performance matrices are essential in Stop/Start idle elimination. For further reading on micro-hybrids and Stop/Start idle elimination, you can check out John Peterson's article here seekingalpha.com/article/297511-micro-hy... and Johnson Controls highlights their forecast for the industry in their Power Solutions Analyst Day here www.johnsoncontrols.com/publish/us/en/in....

    Axion Power's Current Testing Markets:

    Their are several markets very conducive to Axion's PbC battery technology where they have made major in roads and are in testing for over two years.

    1. Automotive: Axion Power has been testing their PbC battery with BMW (since 2009, as well as "several other European OEM's"). GM: "We are currently moving to in-vehicle testing with numerous OEM's," is written in Axion's recent application for a grant from the DOE with GM as their partner. This is no small feat, considering how notoriously slow-paced the automotive industry moves when pursuing new technology.

    2. Rail: Norfolk Southern testing in their NS999 (since 2009)

    3. Power Grid/Energy Storage: PJM and Viridity (www.marketwatch.com/story/axion-powers-p...)

    They are dealing with the largest market movers in each industry (keep in mind they are currently trading for around $30M.)

    Axion Power's Market Dynamics:

    Everyone knows the economic market conditions for the past three years have made the markets more than unstable and micro-cap stocks on the Bulletin Board surely were not spared the knife when it came to funds looking to cut out risk. The past 18 months have been extremely tumultuous for the market dynamics of Axion Power. Quercus Trust, a large fund that invests in green technology, was the first to begin selling off their 18M share (including warrants) position looking for liquidity to help support other companies in the fund that were not able to stand on their own feet. From here on out rule 144 of the SEC limits the amount of shares Quercus can continue selling. Other than in the third quarter of this year, Quercus has been a very responsible seller accounting for only 10% of the daily volume. Special Situations is another fund that has been selling, driving downward pressure on the share price very hard. In their 13G filing as of Sept. 30, Special Situations had 3.1M shares left. Since then, total volume for sellers has been ~5M shares, considering the very aggressive selling coupled with the lack of bad news (on the contrary the news has only gotten better) that has taken place over the past several weeks we (Axion Concentrators seekingalpha.com/instablog/228383-mayasc...) believe Special Situations is all but out of the picture. My belief is that myself as well as many of the other Axion Concentrator commentors have done the bulk of the buying. Considering that we all believe it to be a 5-10 bagger stock, most of those shares are in what can be termed "strong hands" and unwilling to sell at any price below a multiple of 5 from the current cap.

    Axion Power's Coming Capital Raise:

    Back in March, Axion announced a shelf registration to sell stock to raise $18M -$28M. Without any expansion Axion can last as a going concern until the end of Q2 2012 without any additional funds. On the most recent conference call Thomas Granville, the CEO of Axion Power, said they had been offered financing but not on terms acceptable to them. The growing consensus is that Axion Power will wait to do a positive press release causing the price to rise and then do the capital raise.

    Axion Power's Risk/Reward Profile:

    The two major risks that could create a bad outcome are the capital raise and worst nightmare scenario that the PbC does not gain any market acceptance in any of the markets it has been testing in for over two years now. If the PbC does not get market acceptance in the next six months, then they would not have to build out additional manufacturing capabilities and they would only need to raise the $18M on the low-end of the shelf registration. Not terrible considering they can still produce at least $44M in revenue and 6.6M in gross profit with their existing plant. They would not have to pay taxes because of NOL carryover from their previous years and no need for R&D expenses, both of which would increase their net income. If Axion does receive commercial orders for their PbC before Q2 of 2012, thereby confirming the PbC market acceptance, they should have no trouble raising capital, considering they are getting offers for that already. In addition, the price should spike since there are a lot of people who are aware of this stock thanks to John Petersen, but the majority are not willing to buy in now because of doubt surrounding the PbC's commercial viability. Once that doubt is put to rest through a commercial order from one or any of the first tier OEM's that are testing it. The share price should finally begin reflecting the true market potential of this disruptive technology.

    I have a hard time believing their is a better risk/reward profile currently in the market. I want to thank John for a lot of the information that I then confirmed with my own due diligence as I would assume anyone reading this article would do.

    ####

    I want to again thank jarkutz for a wonderful article!
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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (171)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator by DRich:

     

    >HTL ... I don't know if this is just my trading platform or not, but I have a button for entering "Anonymous" buy/sell in Level II. It will show a minimum offer of 100 or a slider up to the limit of my offer. This amount is what is shown to other Level II traders. For an additional fee (I think it's $60/mo) I can get a feed from the NASDAQ called "Total View" (again, I don't know if this is just my platform name for it) and it will show every bid/ask offering broken down into whatever traunches the dealer has broken it up into. I've been told (by a less than trustworthy trader that has this) that the offering traunches are client coded. I don't know.

     

    I've never bought into this because I've no interest in trying to front run or go HFT. I do know there are data feeds out there that will give you a lot more granularity than Level II. Everything for a price.
    16 Dec 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is an example of MMs trying to be thieves. The following is from my Market Depth/Level 2 this morning. Note the bid/ask prices:

     

    06:00:06 VFN (VFinance Investments) Bid .0001 Size 5000
    06:00:06 VERT (The Vertical Investment Group) Bid .0001 Size 5000
    06:00:06 LAMP (Lampost Capital) Bid .01 Size 5000
    06:00:06 CSTI (Collins Stewart) Bid .06 Size 5000
    07:40:53 CANT (Cantor Fitzgerald) Bid .20 Size 5000

     

    ####

     

    06:00:06 VFIN (VFinance Investments) Ask 4.62 Size 500
    07:40:53 CANT (Cantor Fitzgerald) Ask 1.01 Size 500
    06:00:06 VERT (The Veritcal Investment Group) Ask 1.01 Size 500
    06:00:06 LAMP (Lampost Capital) Ask 1.01 size 500
    09:53:39 HDSN (Rodman & Renshaw) Ask .72 Size 2500

     

    ####

     

    This is the kind of chicanery I see every morning, companies like the ones listed above, praying on potential fat finger sales. Or, obviously, praying on orders made using Market Order, rather than using a Limit Order.

     

    Despicable.
    16 Dec 2011, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... I know that it is quite common for brokerage traders to go home at night with totally off-the-wall bid/ask up on the board. This is most common on stocks that don't normally trade overseas. The idea is to discourage trades. I'm told it is to be sure of not running afoul of this-or-that regulation but I'm more inclined to believe it's just being lazy and to cut down on paperwork first thing in the morning. Coffee & bagels come first.
    16 Dec 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    jak...one last thing, HTL provides excellent TA, and I also agree with what JLP has said repeatedly..AXPW has to grow revenues. Sales is the catalyst that makes it move higher.

     

    The best model that I know of as to what to expect out of AXPW is Maxwell. They still report a small quarterly loss, but have grown revenues and gained product acceptance. Therefore it trades at $15/shr. Go research their history & stock prices at certain points and that is how I expect AXPW stock to perform.

     

    Trust management when he said they can raise the finances & with the announcement of Rosewater & the Power Cube, he is telling you that AXPW is ready & open for business.

     

    There will be sales in the first 2 quarters of 2012 to obtain their goals. Don't worry about the next 2 weeks, it's end of the year.

     

    Everyone sigh...this was my last post on the reverse split, etc.
    16 Dec 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    It would be nice to get rid of some of these guys next year too.

     

    http://bit.ly/w59P5v
    16 Dec 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    Here it is correctly.

     

    One More Anti-Green Energy Win for the Tea Party

     

    http://bit.ly/w59P5v
    16 Dec 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Today may give us a "volume spike" that suggests the end of the down trend. Already traded 400.66K and the 25-day average is 375.7K. Recent high volume was 12/5-12/7 when we bottomed at $0.30 12/7 and tried to move up. Made a little, but not substantially.

     

    If $0.30 holds today, which I expect (hopium?), we have what Maya suggested, a possible triple-bottom.

     

    Right now (12:33) buy:sell is 1:2.42. Buy:(sell+unknown) is 1:2.70.

     

    Earlier, 11:00, they were 1:4.07 and 1:4.581.

     

    So we've seen improvement. Moreover, the bid/ask spread has narrowed and Level 2 show excellent potential support (as it also did earlier) at $0.30 with 150.5K there on the bid and *presented* bids at $0.305 and $0.31 with *presented* 5K and 7K sizes respectively.

     

    Since the former is PUMA, which earlier we noted apparently has a much greater depth of bids than shown, and the latter is "AUTO", which almost always has *much* greater depth than displayed, I think at worst $0.30 holds and I would be mildly surprised, quadruple witching, tax-loss selling, ... notwithstanding, if we got there again today.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hard: I think your are correct about 30 cents being the base for the day. I see 190,000 cumulative shares bidding right now at that price.
    16 Dec 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    Earlier it was 217K at one point.

     

    Well, during one of NASDAQ's "Cross trade" periods just now, a crossing trade just bypassed the $0.305 best bid from PUMA and went at $0.30 for 41.5K.

     

    This is a broker-to-broker trade. We'll never now who.

     

    So my feeling that we wouldn't see $0.30 again today was wrong.

     

    I feel *so* violated! :-(( ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >TWIMC ... With EOY,EOQ, triple witching and brokers leaving until next year, all happening today, I hope 'whoever' just stands pat with the knowledge they've done the best they can to exit. We all deserve a rest. Happy Chanukah, Merry Christmas to all.
    16 Dec 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    LT> "Because there is no catalyst to make it go higher." Roger that. As I said a while back there is nothing but air under the AXPW price. The only thing holding price up is the unwillingness of a lot of holders to literally give the stock away.

     

    If a potential new investor in Axion does any due diligence it would scare the hell out of them. The chart alone would push most people off without doing another lick of DD. Let's say they are none the less intrigued and they read the 10Q. Right away the necessity of a capital raise to remain a going concern hits them in the face. They also might think if the price is .30 now it could be .20 after a capital raise.

     

    Axion had a two year runway to get the PbC off the ground with the $26M capital raise. It didn't get into the air for one reason - lack of significant sales growth. I don't mean in terms of percentages - a 500% increase from a $1 in sales to $5 sounds nice in percentage terms but is immaterial in financial terms.

     

    DRich summed up the company from an investor viewpoint very thoroughly with this description: "this is a company no one has ever heard of, on the edge of the financial cliff, with a business model that (is) quirky for a commodity product like batteries, isn't in production but hopes to be into a world economic slow down and is in a sector and industry very few market participants care about (even) in good times.

     

    So what is the point of this post? Simply that this is time in Axion's history that try men's souls. It either will make it through this trough and start gaining some altitude or else. It is against that back drop that we are holding or increasing our positions and almost all of us (including the Axion old guard) are underwater. People who keep an investment at this level of risk do so either because of necessity (so far underwater drowning is preferable to salvation) or tremendous courage.

     

    As a sales person I don't see much point in trying to encourage new investors to jump in - the negatives are lit up like a Vegas billboard. It's up to TG, the board of directors, and the gods to make this work out for them and all of us.

     

    I think they can get Axion through 2012 one way or another, and that enough has been accomplished up to now to see a sales break-through in 2012. If I didn't believe that I'd take the 30 cents a share and run for the hills. Wecome to Death Valley and I hope to see us all safely on the other side and in the Valley of Plenty!
    16 Dec 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Bang,
    I think most investors will (sensibly) await financing outcome. Although we collectively think it unlikely, the company could fail at this hurdle, or, more likely (80% perhaps), face a significant down round to add to the last down round, with meaningful dilution (smaller slice of the pie) for existing bag holders and a lower share price (shrinking pie). That would be the moment that the seasoned bottom feeders move in, with some confidence that there will not be another round needed until product orders are firm. But only product sales, the one true indicator of market adoption, will have AXPW moving N. Undoubtedly, further evidence of impressive testing with auto, rail, power will improve the risk reward profile, but, objectively, probability of success may remain well below 30% in each of these markets. Collectively this gives us at least a fair shout of shifting product at some time in some market, but another 24 months before any meaningful volume. Scary times indeed. For the brave/foolish only.

     

    Having said all that I nibbled again today. It is a sickness.
    16 Dec 2011, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    Bang, many believe flooded sales alone can be 15-20M in 2012. It is likely they will break 8M this year. To me that is more then "air" and can justify a market cap of 1.5x-2x 2012 sales. As for the PbC I bet Rosewater and Viridity see some traction in 2012. NS and BMW are also in the wings near term. As far as getting a major order from the Big 3, that might still be years away but I don't think anyone ever thought it wasn't. Also think about all the other irons in the fire that we likely aren't privy to (yet).

     

    Don't lose your conviction and keep some powder dry. Now that this stock screams bargain I'm willing to mention it to family and friends. SS is almost done selling. Unless you think insiders and/or Blackrock/Manatuk are also selling then eventually we will have this float on lock down. At that point it can only go up as laws of supply and demand dictate since supply is not infinite.
    16 Dec 2011, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    When I say it has nothing but air under it I mean in terms of a known catalyst until the year end conference call at the end of March. I expect increased sales in 2012 but I sure as hell hope they are PbC sales to NS or somebody and not low margin toll contract flooded battery sales. There is nothing exciting about flooded battery sales that will inspire the market I don't care what the sales number.

     

    The most important thing the members of the Axion Concentrators can do to help the stock is to have a well developed list of questions to ask during the next conference call that will let TG add "color" to Axion's prospects for 2012. We need to get that information in the transcript. It's a pity that didn't happen in the last conference call.

     

    I'm all in so that's my level of conviction and in the past month I've increased my position 50% with buys at .37 and .34. At the same time I am a realist. Axion has a tough row to hoe for the next 12 months and I'm not wearing rose colored glasses.
    16 Dec 2011, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) 100K @ $0.305 just went and PUMA's 5K offer didn't blink, sneeze, ... nothing.

     

    Volume @ ~599.8K, so we do have a spike in volume for sure.

     

    Looking good except that 100K will show as a sell.

     

    Hmm, I wonder what the daily shorts will look like?

     

    I suspect a larger than normal number of "Crossing Trades", but we'll never know.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » What we are seeing lately is the size of the blocks trading going way up.
    16 Dec 2011, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    That's a significant thing to note I think.

     

    If we have larger distressed (or tax-loss sellers) dumping and equally large folks saying "I think this is a great opportunity down the road", JP's shares sellers->buyers that are strong hands comes strongly into play I think.

     

    'Course, 100K @ $0.305 is only 30.5K, but that's still a chunk 'o change and I think comes from a stronger hand.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    "JP's shares sellers->buyers that are strong hands comes strongly into play I think.

     

    'Course, 100K @ $0.305 is only 30.5K, but that's still a chunk 'o change and I think comes from a stronger hand."

     

    HTL, here is what I am most impressed with, .30 is supported by someone other than "us" here, and they are taking ALL the sellers shares. I just think this is huge for us. This stock winds up in stronger hands. I am sure the articles have helped, but I would bet other things too.
    16 Dec 2011, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    LT: 100% agreement!

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LT & Hard: It appears we are drawing the same conclusion from the Level 2 data.

     

    But what exactly is the conclusion? Who is buying? I'll disclose that I maybe accounted for 8 or 9 percent of yesterday's and today's combined volume.

     

    But who else is making a move? To see several large buy orders slip through yesterday and today, someone else, or entity, or better, entities, are beginning to trickle in with deeper pockets.

     

    Do they see the triple bottom we see? Is this backstop today of a couple hundred thousand shares bidding 30 cents signify some kind of threshold?

     

    My best guess is that we haven't yet landed a whale. But it surely seems like some larger fish in the sea have just begun feeding. And 30 cents per is a tasty priced appetizer.

     

    I can't even buy a Buffalo chicken wing for 30 cents!
    16 Dec 2011, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Whatever we guess is speculation at this point, but I think IMO it is all the above. Especially the "deep pockets" because there was extremely strong support and buying at .30. A few weeks ago this much strong selling would have really pushed us down further.

     

    I really view today as positive (not that it can't/won't go any lower, but I do not expect much more damage.) and at this rate the selling will dissipate rather quickly.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    We can hope for "Strong Hands" but I don't know that we can assume it. (and by "Strong Hands" I mean someone that's going to stick around.) Some recent buyers could easily be predicting, and then looking at a 100% gain with some news and the end of tax loss selling, and not resist taking the profit. We could get hit with another wave of selling, though perhaps better managed than SS if for example Goldman is involved.

     

    They could also expect the "dilution/financing" as soon as the price makes a significant recovery and try to trade around that expected event.
    17 Dec 2011, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    May be Special Situations decided to take up a new position.
    17 Dec 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    I suspect/hope the old guard averaging down and protecting their investment. Would love to know JP's current PPS <grin>...
    17 Dec 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Tim, JP gave a summary of the background of Axion's beginnings in Concentrator 25. In one of the Concentrator's he also gave links which showed how much some of the original investors had to pay for shares.

     

    I just gave it a brief scan but if my memory serves me correctly, most of them are in for 1 to 3 dollars a share.
    17 Dec 2011, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Tim, this is the posting I mentioned from JP. It is in concentrator 26. JP's willingness to share the background of the company in Concentrators 25 and 26 have helped ease my worries of the commitment of those in charge.

     

    The 2009 placement created an unusual dynamic because the deal size represented 110% of the previously outstanding stock (40 million shares) and 650% of annual trading volume (7 million shares). From the perspective of the board and the old guard the 2009 financing was painful but we approved it anyway because it was the right thing to do.

     

    If you look at Axion's board, Granville, Averill and Patterson are each in for somewhere between $1 and $6 million at an average cost well north of $1. Several other members of the old guard including me are in a comparable position when it comes to price. If you want to understand what we invested and what we paid for our shares, the best disclosure in the world is in Note 6 to the financial statements included in this year's Form 10-K starting on page 43. http://1.usa.gov/suQjK0

     

    We'll bite another bullet for the team IF WE HAVE TO, but nobody in a position of power or influence wants to suffer through another down round. Hell, even the employee and executive stock options will be out of the money until Axion hits a price of $1.50.

     

    I've never had a client where the founders poured $15 million of their personal money into a company before going beyond friends and family to an investor like Quercus which paid $2.10 per share. The public stockholders may worry that management will eagerly seek money at any price and terms, but it's a little out there when public holders who bought at $0.50 are worried that the guys who paid more are will do something stupid.

     

    Before the 2009 offering Axion had a $60 million market cap and one disclosed partner, Exide. Today it has a $34 million market cap and publicly disclosed customer relationships with NS, BMW and Viridity. It also has recently ferreted out working relationships with GM and a marketing company created by some very big dogs.

     

    If Axion has to raise money at this price the board will be thinking Ramen rather than tenderloin.
    17 Dec 2011, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    jveal, I am with you and had the good fortune to be around when Maya posted the very first of these informative concentrators.

     

    My post was in response to the HTL/LT thought of a stronger hands gathering shares around the .30 level. Something that I have been doing to mix with my shares above $1 but I am too small to be considered strong hands.

     

    Your post is timely and is a good reminder...
    17 Dec 2011, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    Tim,

     

    "Strong hands", I believe, refers not to size but to strength to hang on through rough seas - not being a day trader, momentum player or one who is "easily" spooked into dumping shares.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Tim, Thanks for your gracious response. I realized after I posted JP's comments that you were probably a long term follower and contributor. I have followed John's comments about Axion since Feb. I did not discover the Concentrator until around Nov 11. I had the privilege of finding it during the most hectic time of new revelations and discoveries of Axion's progress. As a result, like others have admitted, I have broken all the rules of prudent investing and have purchased numerous shares to bring my pps down to $0.426.

     

    In regards to the strong hands, I am a very small investor. I have tried to check some of the insiders trading sites and haven't been able discover any recent purchases. I've only been actively managing my investments for about 10 months, so I am still learning a vast amount of what research is available on the internet for investors.

     

    I'm going to have to go back and read the first 18 or 19 Concentrators to see what I missed.

     

    JVeal
    17 Dec 2011, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jveal: And lest we not forget possibly Ford and definitely Envision Solar, plus strong hints about the military, as well as possibly other OEMs.
    18 Dec 2011, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    Maya...what would you define as "...large orders..."?
    19 Dec 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good question, magounsq. For quite some time until recently, I rarely saw blocks of 20,000 or more moving through on the buy side. So at first blush, I would say 20,000. But the stock has dropped such that when I spent $12K buying ten thousand shares, I now could buy 40,000 shares for the same amount.

     

    I'd say, and this is merely a guess, that 30,000 blocks costing $10K a clip, is a good number to see cross the board. But, as I wrote earlier, I only see a few bigger fish feeding right now, not a whale.
    19 Dec 2011, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    177% greater volume than average. That's Quadruple Witching with an attitude.
    16 Dec 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    I just picked up another 5k at $0.31. At that price I just couldn't hep mysef.

     

    "My will (beat) (beat) is not my own".

     

    Paraphrased lyrics from "Addicted to Love" by Robert Palmer.
    16 Dec 2011, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    and I have for about a week had a 50K purchase order at 0.30. Do not yet know if it has been executed. I am not "online", I just ask my bank to put in the order. Will know on monday.
    17 Dec 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    Good luck with it Poul. 113.4K traded at $0.30, so you've got a good shot. None went at 50K, but there's a decent chance they filled you with some smaller portions to total up to 50K or so. With ~604.8 total traded, that means the 113.4K is about 18,7% of the volume.

     

    xx xx <-- fingers crossed for you!

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    SS involved today?
    16 Dec 2011, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    Pianomanshl, we have no way to tell or make our usual (hopefully) educated guess. Today's, in fact the last few days', actions have been showing patterns different from what was seen when we could be fairly sure SS was in.

     

    The number of market-makers in around the trading price seems different and we have larger trades going both directions, rather than just a more-or-less constant drop in price on larger trades.

     

    SS could be in and they (or whomever is trading for them) could be doing "smarter" trades or it might not be them at all.

     

    My recent thoughts have been thinking that tax-loss selling might be most of the selling pressure, but that's just speculation.

     

    If we just look at the technical analysis alone, we have a "triple bottom" - a strong indication of support. This usually means direction eventually moves up.

     

    So even if they are in, we have stronger indication of buying interest. All our shares should begin to feel all warm and fuzzy in the near future - likely *after* all the holiday's are over would be my guess.

     

    I think the couple recent articles may have sparked some interest too.

     

    I can say that the buy:sell didn't move hugely out of recent character today - 1:2.88 ratio. So whatever was going on today, it wasn't a large increase in selling pressure.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I was checking on JP's comment that OTC exchanges double count volume. I found the following confirmation. I didn't doubt JP, I was just trying to understand the level 2 trade numbers.

     

    "Electronic exchanges with no physical location double count stock volume because they count buy and sell transactions for the same stock as separate. If trading increases by 200 shares, then stock volume is up by 400. The NASDAQ and Over-The-Counter (OTC) markets are examples of electronic exchanges."

     

    Read more: What Does Stock Volume Mean? | eHow.com http://bit.ly/tRYQvq
    16 Dec 2011, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    Thanks BW! I'm always looking to learn more and bookmark good references!

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2011, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Take ehow stuff with a grain of salt. Not saying it's wrong, "Just Sayin'"

     

    From wikipedia's ehow entry:

     

    Search engine DuckDuckGo's CEO Gabriel Weinberg has criticized eHow, along with other Demand Media websites, labeling the company a "content mill," because of the website's search engine driven content, low article quality and low writer salaries. DuckDuckGo filters out eHow content because of Weinberg's perception that Demand Media produces low-quality content designed specifically to rank highly in Google Searches for the purposes of promoting advertising.[4]
    Another search engine, Blekko also regards eHow as spam, blacklists the site and filters eHow results out.[5]
    Wired magazine has also criticized eHow and Demand Media, calling their content: "slapdash" and a "factory stamping out moneymaking content".[2]
    16 Dec 2011, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I just took it as quick confirmation of JP's remark that otc trades double count which I had no reason to doubt - but seeing it from two sources was double proof. I take everything I read on the web with a grain of salt.
    16 Dec 2011, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    Thanks WTB.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2011, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    Every once in a while, some consternation about trades filling (or rather not filling) .

     

    Found this on another board that might help a little.

     

    http://bit.ly/s3mIsz

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    I noticed that John has almost 54,000 followers! I propose an Axion pledge drive. If we can get all 54,000 of us to pledge to buy just 1,000 shares each (~300 bucks each, not asking anyone to donate a kidney or anything). We will pick a day and time and all simultaneously hit the "Buy" button. By my back of the napkin calculations, we could put ~54 Million shares in the hands of us longs. That should be good to move the price up a penny or two. Who's with me!?? :)
    17 Dec 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    Great thought if the market-maker(s) would let us get away with it. I suspect the range would move up on that action.

     

    Might activate a trading-pause trigger too! At least it wouldn't be from price decline due to shorts hammering! :-))

     

    Got to do it like the big shorters do when they cover - slow and easy spread out over time. "Stealth covering".

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    As much as I like the 54,000 follower number, reality is that most of them were accumulated during a period when SA was recommending authors to new users as part of the sign-up procedure.

     

    My average page views per article over the last year has been closer to 7,000 or 8,000 and many of those page views were multiple visits.

     

    Since Mayascribe kicked off these Concentrators. my page views per article have plummeted because readers who used to ask all their Axion questions on my articles are now discussing them in better and crisper detail in the Concentrators. It's not fun to see my "official" readership drop, but I've never seen a grass roots phenomenon like these Concentrators and loosing ground to something this superior is no shame.
    17 Dec 2011, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    John, I have to admit that I had never read the comments to your articles until the first of November. That's when I found a link to the Concentrator. I now read 10 times more of your comments on these Concentrators than your written articles. Your comments are also more focused because you are responding to our questions and comments.

     

    I look forward to reading your responses to confirm or redirect the discussion that has taken place. SA has increased my readership exponentially because of this Concentrator.

     

    Thanks for the time you take to respond. I know I speak for others who have not taken the time to write.

     

    Maya, thank you also for providing this forum.
    17 Dec 2011, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JP: I can only remit to your comment...with how these Concentrators are subtly akin to...how Gene Wilder yelped out in Young Frankenstein, "It's Alive!"
    18 Dec 2011, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jveal: My pleasure!

     

    18 Dec 2011, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I have to admit that a stock-market flash mob is an intriguing prospect. The only flaw I can see is that a flash flood of limit orders a penny under the bid wouldn't have a lot of impact and you bottom feeders are all the same ;-)
    18 Dec 2011, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    John, I'll be the one .$009 under the bid :-)
    18 Dec 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    The good thing is that your page views should now correlate with readership pretty well. I bet you have thousands of follower who at least give your articles the one over. Not to mention the SA bunch is discerning; so that is high praise.
    18 Dec 2011, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Having to care for my mother 24/7 makes Saturday nights pretty slow. To pass the time I listened to the Q3 conference call again to see what I could pick up I might have missed previously.

     

    With respect to the casting machines for the second flooded battery line they were rebuilds. More important was the 35% increase in battery formation area which TG specifically stated was for greater PbC production capacity. I also clearly understood that the next NS purchase order would be for an over-the-road locomotive. That cleared up some of the murkiness in my crystal ball.

     

    TG also said that they had been exploring financing options with the shelf registration since April 2011. He will obviously be well prepared to make the correct decision on financing when he must act.

     

    Lastly, NS is actively testing other battery technologies and TG stated that to date the PbC was performing as expected. That coupled with the recently discovered PP slide regarding NS's assessment of the PbC performance leads me to believe the PbC is the leading battery candidate.

     

    Presumably the other technologies would be lithium ion in some sort of flavor -perhaps from A123 - and/or perhaps the Ultrabattery or enhanced AGM. Unless size and weight are a factor at NS for some reason with their electric locomotives (perhaps the space saved with lithium ion batteries would make room for one or more Gensets on a locomotive) I would expect the PbC to win that contest.

     

    It's never over until the fat lady sings. Excuse me, I've got to take my blood pressure meds.
    17 Dec 2011, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The most critical decision NS made was having Axion build the BMS for the NS 999 and the road locomotive because a BMS is a battery specific system that can't be used with chemistries like lithium-ion. Ever since that decision was made, I've believed the PbC was "Plan A" and there were no active alternative plans. There may well be a "Plan B" or even a "Plan C," but they're standbys in case the PbC fails rather than competitive projects on parallel tracks. There is no question in my mind that Axion has the NS business for now and it's ultimately all up to the battery.

     

    While the level of commitment is a little weaker in the case of BMW, they've also taken a podium and publicly told the battery industry "the PbC is the only device we've tested that has the performance we're looking for in a stop-start battery." Once again, there's no question in my mind that Axion has an inside track for the BMW business as long as Axion can meet their manufacturing standards and the battery successfully completes a million miles of vehicle testing.

     

    I've always been surprised that NS and BMW aligned themselves with the PbC technology before there was a PbC product. In my experience that kind of thing doesn't happen. Axion could lose either customer with a manufacturing standards failure or a technology failure, but the failures would need to be pretty blatant.
    18 Dec 2011, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    So I was wondering about who owns the BMS in this case, and more generally Battery Management Systems patent APPLICATIONS:

     

    Results of Search in AppFT Database for:
    TTL/battery AND TTL/management: 287 applications.
    Hits 1 through 50 out of 287

     

    http://bit.ly/vuUwGk

     

    Oy. Would take a while to read through all that.

     

    "Inventors" are listed by location, not by company affiliation (Guess IF it gets granted, then it gets "assigned" to a company.)
    18 Dec 2011, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    My guess is that Axion owns the basic BMS which was developed for the PowerCube and Norfolk Southern owns any railroad specific adaptations that were made to the basic BMS. Ultimately that will be a matter of contract between the parties and until we see some express disclosure on the subject I wouldn't put too much faith in an educated guess.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    JP: "...Axion has an inside track for the BMW business as long as Axion can meet their manufacturing standards and the battery successfully completes a million miles of vehicle testing."

     

    I'm thinking comparatively low price and manufacturing standards are the best things PbC tech has going for it presently and risk of losing the manufacturing advantage rises with each passing month. There is a great deal of investment in battery R&D occurring and the drumbeat of technological discoveries is pretty steady. Perhaps my relative lack of understanding of battery trades explains my reservations, but articles like http://bit.ly/s7YADP give reason to pause for reflection on Axion as an investment.

     

    I climbed my personal WoW this past week to increase AXPW holdings ~20%. But, an exit plan will commence in absence of commercial product sales within the next few months.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... My personal view only. If you go back and dig into the history of the PbC, you'll find that it has been a near 20 year development cycle from the time it was a lab experiment in Russia to where Axion is today. Every "break through" event you read about has to travel the same road the PbC has. Money & need could speed things up but not that much, let's say 5-8 years shaved off.

     

    I'm following graphene development because I think it is the next great development but I don't think it stands a chance of seeing the light of day until 2025, at minimum. Even if Axion gets supplanted by a better, cheaper technology it has a good 20 year run ahead.
    18 Dec 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The harshest reality of the battery business, and one that investors can't even begin to understand, is that the typical timeframe from a Eureka! moment of discovery to a product that can be manufactured by a crew of technical school graduates in gimme caps is invariably seven to ten years and most Eureka! moments eventually result in "oh crap" misery when materials constraints become obvious and the guys in white coats learn that easy in the lab can be very difficult in a manufacturing environment. I've had very few clients fail when it was all PhDs in lab coats doing the work. The problems always arose in making a dependable, affordable and scalable product.

     

    When I first got involved with Axion, we had an advanced laboratory prototype that had accumulated thousands of deep discharge cycles. We believed we were two to three years from a commercial product. The electrochemistry hasn't changed a bit over the last eight years, but the product conception and fabrication methods have nothing in common with where we started.

     

    There's a reason that over 90% of battery innovations never make it to production. Everybody wants the worlds greatest battery but they also want it to be dirt cheap, and that's the rub every time.
    18 Dec 2011, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Without a discussion of cost, the rest is meaningless.
    18 Dec 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    While out for a run today, I was thinking about the distribution of the number of shares.
    85M shares = 100% (roughly)
    8.5M = 10%
    850K = 1%
    85K = 0.1%
    Suppose the *average* number of Axionista shares were 85K (85K x $0.31 ~ $26K). Suppose we have 100 Axionistas in the Concentrator (I think reasonable?), then we hold 10% (I think conservatively? I think it could easily be double that?)
    I know JP has provided non-proprietary information on some of the holdings, but I’m afraid I don’t remember what they were. However, if I remember correctly and after *quickly* looking at some dated information online, it appears the largest owners hold in total about 18M ~ 21%?
    I think the “Big Boys’ (Quercus, SS et al) had had held about 4-5% each *at last measurable count*, and we think they are driving-toward/arrived-at 0%. If they have reached 0%, that would still leaves 60-70% unaccounted for.

     

    My numbers may be way off, but perhaps those following more closely can take this to the next step? Or at least I hope I may have kicked off an interesting discussion. Depending on the consensus, there *may* be some interesting conclusions possible.
    17 Dec 2011, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » mds5375: Eeeh, ahh...I have this sneaky feeling that your numbers are a tad low. There is a wide expanse to what I believe true, and that is the folks here hold somewhere between 6 to as much as 20 percent of outstanding shares. And it's growing.

     

    I'll also add, in a tremulous, feet shuffling way, is that nowhere else on the I-Net, "is what is occurring as it is here."

     

    And here is what's really crazy to ponder...is how does the SEC deal with common folks who combine their resources via the Internet,
    to overwhelm some GDamned trading house? Has this ever occurred before?

     

    Doubt it.
    18 Dec 2011, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I average something on the order of 8,000 page views on articles that focus on PbC applications like stop-start. If I made a SWAG, I'd say that about a quarter of those readers have bought Axion shares and the other three-quarters are sitting on the sidelines waiting for some sort of development. Since public company shareholder lists usually have an 80-20 distribution where 80% of the shares held by the public are held by 20% of the stockholders, I'd guess that the Axionistas (both active and lurkers) come primarily from the 20% group.

     

    Old wives tales in the brokerage business say the average amount a retail investor puts into a high-risk stock is in the $5,000 range. That number is probably more than a wives tale, but I don't know of any statistically valid studies on the point. On balance I'd guess that regular readers of my blog own between 20 and 40 million shares.
    18 Dec 2011, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • Bob Haeger
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    My friend and I are over the 500k mark and still adding.
    18 Dec 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Maya, JP - Much appreciate the responses.

     

    I opted for a conservative approach for an opening conjecture (never stick your head too far out - Ha!)

     

    I personally believe the Axionistas probably do constitute a 25% to possibly 40% range; then another less-dedicated, JP-article-follower but Non-Concentrator-follower group who each invest $5-10K “a little money on the lottery” adding another 5% to possibly 10%. The latter folks will be divided between those who will sell out quickly, and those who will add more shares upon the advent of rapid price rise confirmation.

     

    I had not thought to apply the 80/20 rule to Axion share ownership, but it makes perfect sense.

     

    Maya – I have to agree that the Concentrator is a very new, uncharted, and yet possibly game-changing concept. Yes, we have had open forums for a while, but having so much information, insight, and dedication concentrated in one place – *without trolls and pages of meaningless dreck to spend hours wading through* - is like having a dedicated research team. So, yes, I *do* believe that this could be a new model. The best concentrator use would be limited to covering startups with great potential such as Axion, but still, I do believe that the trading houses *will* start referring to the “GD Concentrators” in the near future. Ha!
    18 Dec 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    BTW - Does anyone on this concentrator ever sleep?

     

    I know one prominent member is 7 hours earlier in Suisse, but the rest of the time stamps? Really! Gosh - And I have a day job too! Ha!
    18 Dec 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pretty sure over the years I have never made a comment here on Seeking Alpha between 3:58 AM and 4:07 AM. That's when I sleep!
    18 Dec 2011, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    I'd saying counting your block and some of the other "faithful" on here that 20M is conservative. Not to mention any big holders out there who read SA but don't post.

     

    Now we must all hold tight when our double ups start coming since we have seen what happens when millions of shares come back into supply (ex. SS and QT).
    18 Dec 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The most fascinating thing about the kind of redistribution that Axion's gone through over the last 18 months is that instead of having a handful of decision makers that can individually exert substantial selling pressure, thousands of individual holders don't typically make the same decisions at the same time and for the same reasons. Where a few holders who want to sell can be very hard for the market to cope with, a large number of holders making individual decisions is ordinary course of business stuff unless there's a major business failure, and then all bets are off.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Shiver me timbers! I'm not sure what I'm more nervous about this sparkling morning...that my Fantasy Football team is in the first playoff round (with Roddy White already posting 25.5 points), or to ponder about all that I'm reading here.

     

    To even consider followers of JP and this column own HALF of Axion Power is delightfully frighterning.

     

    I once heard a good way to describe when the awaiting fat cats will jump in, and that's catching the elevator at the 20th floor on the way to the 80th. Though we're still mucking around in the basement, when you consider some of us are well over three years of knowing about Axion, I believe JP is right, and that is the elevator door is about to close, and there is only room for a couple more passengers.

     

    We are only mere months away from the elevator passing the 20th floor.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Nice one, Bob. It sure as hell is a safer bet than the bond market. And you could try to guess where the S&P is going and short it or not, but you have a 50/50 shot at that that you might be right at 50% of the time yielding a nice break even (if your lucky).

     

    No, that guess work with the market is for the birds and at this price Axion is even safer than the bank...thinking MF Global.
    18 Dec 2011, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    I have a 3 yr old and a 1 yr old, so no, I never sleep! Or should I say there is never a night I'm not awake at some point and, since the computer is still on, I'll end up checking my email and reading this concentrator before going back to bed. Don't forget that John is over in the Swiss alps, so I'm always more surprised when he's responding to things when he should be asleep.
    18 Dec 2011, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    LabTech: JP's been doing this stuff so long, he probably *is* doing it in his sleep! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2011, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    While Axion's PPS has taken a beating, I stumbled into an interesting comparison using Stockcharts.com to plot the last six months trading for A123 (AONE) versus AXPW. The two stocks have fallen virtually in lockstep. Take a gander here: http://bit.ly/rA2rK5

     

    I think it illustrates that there is little interest in the battery space in the market. To provide a little further confirmation on disinterest the sector try this chart comparing ENS, XIDE and AONE and AXPW. Only ENS has avoided a total meltdown, but it is down 40% from its 12 month high of $40 to $24 and change now. The chart is here: http://bit.ly/uggqvE
    18 Dec 2011, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... As important as this sub-sector is and as much as we, here, get excited about it, the market could care less. If we got another round of QE3 then attention would go from navel gazing back to commodity binge and maybe some one would think of energy & transportation again. Very unfortunate that the "real" economy has to take a back-seat to saving the arse of our current crop of rich people, but these management failures are the market makers and apparently they don't have enough of our money yet to feel comfortable conducting productive economic activity. Derivative our way to the ends of the earth.

     

    Very interesting charts.
    18 Dec 2011, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I think the popularity of my work is proof that there's a great deal of interest in the battery sector, but there's also a great deal of fear.

     

    If I exclude my recent culls, the Chinese companies and the EV companies, my tracking list of 11 pure-play domestic energy storage companies is down an average of 49.0% for the YTD period and down 19.1% for the QTD period while the broader indexes are down 1.4% YTD and up 7.4% QTD. They're all down big for the YTD period and only JCI and ENS are up for the QTD period.

     

    Frankly I view the entire sector as a coiled spring because demand for all types of batteries is growing rapidly and sooner or later business performance will overcome the public's fear that "lead is dead" but the lithium-ion sector can't make money.
    18 Dec 2011, 02:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    BW: Pull up a chart of (GEX) with AXPW, (XIDE), (ZBB), ...

     

    Fairly strong directional, and sometimes magnitude too, correlation, even 3 years back

     

    I think all this is just the (new) "ADD Market", rather than a traditional "investing" market.

     

    Sector rotation occurs, sectors fall in and out of favor.

     

    When GEX starts an up-trend, so will all these others, for the most part.

     

    Might be a side-effect of ETFs being the favored trading vehicles.

     

    If, as everybody claims, our infrastructure is in a sad state of disrepair, including the grid, and *if*, as some claim, manufacturing is *starting* to return to the U.S. as our wages are depressed, then at some point the demands on the grid system will bring energy-investment plays back into favor.

     

    This will cause sector rotation again and stocks like the above, maybe CPST and others, will "pop".

     

    AXPW has the potential for an earlier pop as catalysts are coming out for it. The ADD market will home in on it, for a while, the "Deficit" part will then come into play and it'll return to the trend of the sector *unless* and *until* it's (very near) making money, in which case it will rise to a higher plane of trading and resume following trend at that new level when APXW has transitioned to a production company, rather than a more or less pure R & D speculative stock.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2011, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    P.S. There may be other ETFs that correlate better, but my interest wasn't enough to pour through all the possibilities. (DBE) when compared to such as (ZBB), (AONE), etc., seems a likely candidate as well.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2011, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, bang. Interesting info.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    HTL: "Fairly strong directional, and sometimes magnitude too, correlation, even 3 years back

     

    I think all this is just the (new) "ADD Market", rather than a traditional "investing" market.

     

    Sector rotation occurs, sectors fall in and out of favor."

     

    Interesting perspective. Thanks, HTL.
    18 Dec 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    Bangwhiz & JPL: JPL's list is down 49% because The market and investors know that most new battery technology today is either junk or too expensive to ever make it long term (ex: AGM batteries with 2-8 months life, lithium is still way too expensive & has safety issues, XIDE is known for poor management & inferior products & recent bankruptcy) The market wants to know "what did you do for me today" not a year or two from now.
    JCI & ENS is probably the best managed, and JCI also makes more than batteries to make them more profitable.
    Most of us here found this company about 2-3 years early, there is no doubt they have a product, but are still a year away from manufacturing and maybe 2 years away from mass adoption.
    Almost every week now, we find a new application for energy storage and the PbC seems to be the best technology available at an affordable cost. AXPW is in the tough phase, spending money on manufacturing, and not enough sales history to show for it to bring in the large investors, not to mention it being a penny stock and all the dogma's associated with that, but everyone here believes that is changing. We just need one or two big breakthrough sales to get things going.
    The recent announcements this last month prove that AXPW management is moving to the next phase with the new partnerships with Rosewater, Viridity, PJM, the Power Cube, everyone of these point to SALES of product, and that is what we need. Forget the auto's for a little while...we're just not quite ready for them until manufacturing is in place.
    The biggest thing is green energy lately is the purchase of two solar facilities by Warren Buffett....this had to catch the market off guard. I am not going to argue the advantages/disadvantages of him selling power at higher rates through this, but these are the guys who can buy a Power Cube system if the economics are there...this will make people look at the sector again.

     

    I made AXPW my largest holding because of JLP's articles alerting me to an exciting new technology, but not the hype/biased side that some view, but because when you research the alternatives, there just isn't anything else out there at present. PbC is the most cost effective, easiest to adapt with current production technology, and as all the tests show it works better. Just think of MSFT at $3.00 before corporate adoption of windows, Apple at $5 before the iPod, Maxwell just a couple of years ago,....that's where we are guys, but it shows the potential over the next 3 years.
    If .30 holds next week as a concrete floor even with heavy selling, then we can expect things to improve in 2012. I stick with the premise that it took someone bigger than Axionistas to do this.
    18 Dec 2011, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I believe your timing estimates are overly conservative and based on the pain of the past instead of the progress made and mileposts passed. The transition from R&D to manufacturing a commercial product is always long and painful, but Axion is on the cusp today.

     

    After spending three years refining manufacturing and production processes, Tom Granville spoke of the Gen2A-Gen3 electrode line as a final commercial version. It's no longer an experimental process that needs to be developed and refined, it's a commercial process that needs to be ramped and can be ramped rapidly as demand develops.

     

    The same is true for stationary, railroad and automotive applications for the PbC technology. Device testing has been ongoing for two and a half years with some of the best names in their respective markets. The PowerCube may have been the first shot fired in the commercial product launch, but rail applications will become reality as soon as the EPA paperwork is finished and automotive applications have progressed to in vehicle testing, which is the last step before a design win. I expect to see significant sales in all three market segments by this time next year. The sales won't be millions of batteries, but the path to millions of batteries a year will be clear. This rosebud is ready to bloom.

     

    I also believe you've underestimated the power of the Axionistas, but that's an opinion I'll never be able to prove.
    18 Dec 2011, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    "I believe your timing estimates are overly conservative and based on the pain of the past instead of the progress made and mileposts passed. The transition from R&D to manufacturing a commercial product is always long and painful, but Axion is on the cusp today."

     

    I totally agree John, but it is NOT based on pain( I am in for the long haul) and my estimates are conservative but I tend to err on the side of caution. If Jan. stock price stays at this level (<.40) I intend on doubling my stake.

     

    Read the post that I was typing as you responded....I think TG is executing very well as we speak and a year from now, I couldn't agree more that we will see factual evidence of it...I am not negative at all guys.
    18 Dec 2011, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    LT: "The recent announcements this last month prove that AXPW management is moving to the next phase with the new partnerships with Rosewater, Viridity, PJM, the Power Cube, everyone of these point to SALES of product, and that is what we need. Forget the auto's for a little while...we're just not quite ready for them until manufacturing is in place. "

     

    Nice clear statement in its entirety, LT. I have a somewhat different perspective, presentation of which might be aided by excerpting your material (quote above).

     

    The combined weight of developments you mention had a great deal to do with my decision to add AXPW shares this past week. But, the news that pushed me to top of WoW came from Kirk who reported feedback from Rosewater principals that a decision had been made on PowerCube building block configuration. Until that point, DEFINED PRODUCT apparently did not exist, only prospectively so. Undefined product is rather difficult to mass produce unless one lives in a Lil Abner world inhabited by schmoos.

     

    From my perspective, Axion has arrived at the point where the rubber meets the road. The bait has been cut; time to fish has arrived.
    18 Dec 2011, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    I was pondering the size of the stationary storage market for lead acid batteries. What if 1% chose to replace the lead acid batteries with PbCs. Those LAB have to be replaced every few years anyway. How big and how fast can that market grow? I know it depends on the amount of return the Grid can pay back to a PowerCube Owner but heavens sake. The $125,000 per year figure bantered about by TG and Viridity is a hell of a payback.

     

    I would suggest that if those figures hold true then PJM will send its clients to Viridity and Rosewater so fast it will make Axion's head swim. It saves money on new power production facilities for PJM. It saves the PowerCube owner money. It is a picture perfect win win situation. And it woun't take the bean counters long to say
    " Hey there. Can we get rid of these old LAB that need replaced and buy a PowerCube?"
    18 Dec 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: "D-inv,

     

    I was pondering the size of the stationary storage market for lead acid batteries. What if 1% chose to replace the lead acid batteries with PbCs. Those LAB have to be replaced every few years anyway. How big and how fast can that market grow? I know it depends on the amount of return the Grid can pay back to a PowerCube Owner but heavens sake. The $125,000 per year figure bantered about by TG and Viridity is a hell of a payback."

     

    I tend to agree with your premise that PowerCube sales could start fairly quickly grow rapidly. I'm not sure, though, existing stationary LAB facilities are straight forward replacement opportunities. Inverter/controller requirements for PbC and LAB are apparently somewhat different. Otherwise, it seems to me we should have seen "replacement" battery sales before now.

     

    As Kirk noted, controller/inverter costs are a big cost element in PowerCubes.
    18 Dec 2011, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    D'
    I'm not sure we are comparing apples to apples .

     

    We will assume that Labs and AGMs have been on the market for several years. They wear out and have to be replaced.
    If I can replace them with a $500,000 product that will pay me $125,000 per year then I am in like Flynn, baby.

     

    This is not a decision as to whether or not an inverter is expensive. It is a decision as to whether or not the new product can pay for itselkf where the old fashion LABs can't.

     

    This is what makes the PbC to be a truly disruptive technology.
    18 Dec 2011, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    It occurred to me that some on the board may lack context for interpreting my reference to L'il Abner and shmoos (unless everyone remembers life before Elvis). Allow me to introduce you if that is the case - http://bit.ly/u8P7qe
    18 Dec 2011, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Warning: Uniformed Speculation. But that never stopped me before :-)

     

    And yet there are physical plant issues as well that may have costs on both sides of the ledger. That is, it's probably not the case that you could just "plop" a Powercube into the old location (and wiring) of the LABs. Not sure how "modular" a Powercube might be. Assuming it's outside, or on the edge of the Facility, there's some rewiring to do done. Though this perhaps make it easier and safer to "flash cut" to the new system since you can the leave the old one is in place while you test the Powercube works and meets specs.

     

    On the other hand, freeing up a central? interior room may be a plus if they need the space to grow something else.
    19 Dec 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    WT, thee and me are having similar thoughts. The PbC accepts faster charge/discharge than LAB and exhibits a longer service life, but is apparently NOT a one-for-one trade with LABs in the same size case/box. Given JP's response to one of my first posts to Axion Concentrators, I understand one needs more (or bigger) PbCs for a given amount of reserve power than is needed with LABs.

     

    Could be wrong and, if so, someone please correct me.
    19 Dec 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    wtb

     

    From Rosewater
    http://bit.ly/s4pkQ9

     

    "Q.How does it get installed?

     

    A.It is simply dropped on site and connected like a plug and play device.

     

    Q.Do I need to prepare the area in any special way?

     

    A.On land, the ideal scenario would be to place it on a concrete platform to ensure a level area, on an offshore rig, simply place it along side the gensets."

     

    Probably easier than replacing a genset which has fuel issues as well as electrical.
    Also the gensets are in boxes just as the Powercube is so it depends on the size of the boxes.
    However the genset requires room for fuel which the Powercube does not and probably has a net space savings.
    Things may need to be moved but in total there is likely space savings. (depending on the amount of fuel kept at any one time.)
    11,000 gal takes up a good bit of space.
    20 Dec 2011, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    The whole point of my post above is that 2012 is a very critical year for AXPW. TG must take AXPW to the next level. That means sales, manufacturing = stock price appreciation = new investor financing=listing on a major exchange (the end of the penny stock era)
    Whether we like it or not, large companies/competitors have had no incentive to invest in AXPW. They would rather wait and pay more after we have proved the technology, created markets & sales. They want something as Buffett says that will "move the needle". Creating immediate value, not purchasing something that will be a cash drain on them. 2012 is the turning point. We either do it or not.

     

    I think XIDE really hurt AXPW intentionally. They kept much needed cash for their own bankruptcy, and if they broke AXPW or delayed their progress a couple of years then all the better.

     

    I have one question though....Does the competition really want a battery that lasts 8 years? How far are they willing to go to see that AXPW/PbC is delayed until they can work around the patents?

     

    IMO: PbC will have to be forced on the industry for our business model to succeed. I don't think it comes gladly, willingly or without a fight. I want AXPW to continue to build their own markets and not be totally dependent on the Intel model. I think management is doing this and are executing all this as we speak.
    18 Dec 2011, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I wasn't disagreeing with your first comment and I don't disagree with this one either. My only goal is to clarify my opinion that what Axion needs most is a clear path to target; an identifiable trajectory. As testing and demonstration programs begin to generate meaningful orders, the market's healthy skepticism over Axion's extraordinary performance claims and cost advantages should quickly fade. A clear trajectory in one application should be enough to make the Axionistas very happy. I'd prefer a clear path in two applications but think that all three are not beyond the realm of reason. From a TA perspective the next few days are important. I still think it's all up to the battery and continued careful execution by management.
    18 Dec 2011, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    We agree on everything JLP, you can just put my thoughts in much fewer words :) (wonder if that has anything to do with your profession vs. mine) LOL

     

    I would like to hear from you and others about my question on how the competition views PbC & AXPW.
    18 Dec 2011, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I think the lead-acid battery industry is a pretty pragmatic group. Most companies recognize that yesterday's products aren't robust enough for tomorrow's vehicles. While carbon additives can improve performance, even enhanced batteries aren't really up to the work. So there seems to be a growing recognition that the sector must evolve or die.

     

    At least for now, Axion isn't an existential threat to anybody in the industry because it would rather be a component supplier than a direct competitor. While the PbC could become a dominant battery technology for new cars, it's unlikely to be used in the existing global fleet which will need regular battery replacements for the next 15 to 20 years.

     

    Given a choice between keeping the existing battery market and sharing future vehicles with a component supplier, or keeping the existing battery market and losing future vehicles to a competitor, I think sharing looks pretty attractive.
    18 Dec 2011, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I'm kinda looking forward to the day when we do a hostile takeover of XIDE ... just for fun, and because we can.

     

    Wouldn't that be sweet :-)
    18 Dec 2011, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    LT: ISTR that JP has noted that other battery sent their stuff to AXPW for evaluation.

     

    If so, I guess it mean Axion is viewed favorably. It's also a likely shortening of the path for these other manufacturers to (eventually) do some business (JV, licensing, ...?) since the entities have some sort of relationship and knowledge of each other established.

     

    And we also could wonder exactly what is encompassed in "evaluation". Manufacturing considerations among others? We don't know.

     

    Should minimize the chances of another "Exide Surprise" in the future.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2011, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Actually it was Maya that reported Axion's testing of other batteries.
    18 Dec 2011, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Actually it was Maya reporting that TG reported that Axion was testing other batteries. :-)
    18 Dec 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Futurist: You make me feel like some sort of derivative! ;-) But you are correct. I was merely parroting what I had learned form the head honcho, TG.
    19 Dec 2011, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (414) | Send Message
     
    The bottom feeders here are performing a service that will lead to a higher price earlier. We're in, and apparently at the end, of a situation when a larger holder has been selling as quickly as can be done while trying not to destroy the price any more than necessary. I assume they want have ACPW completely off the books by the end of the year. If the trading volume was what it was in 2009, the process would have taken years, not months, and would have severely limited he capital raising efforts for 2012. 2012 is just when the last major round of risk capital is needed to scale to commercial production levels.

     

    The next step is to see if there is a willingness to buy at higher price. Many of those here may have already bought more than a principled investor should. At some point, someone has to be willing to buy at .45. That is 50% higher than the recent low. I think there is a set of watchers that are willing to give up the first double to be sure the bottom has been reached.. This is when panic buying sets in, but attenuated by sellers ready to give up a some of the extra shares bought at the bottom.
    18 Dec 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I've always figured the watchers outnumbered the buyers by a factor of at least four to one. When the supply and demand dynamic shifts it should be a fun time for those who currently fret about being under water.
    18 Dec 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    JohnM says: "We're in, and apparently at the end, of a situation when a larger holder has been selling as quickly as can be done while trying not to destroy the price any more than necessary. I assume they want have ACPW completely off the books by the end of the year. If the trading volume was what it was in 2009, the process would have taken years, not months, and would have severely limited he capital raising efforts for 2012. 2012 is just when the last major round of risk capital is needed to scale to commercial production levels."

     

    Exactly. What I would add is that I think TG is *well* aware of what is going on, and that we will see news early in the next year followed by financing *after* the price has stabilzed and then recovered.
    18 Dec 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    If I were TG I'd arrange, to the extent possible, for any sales "good news" to appear after the new year. He can read the tape and must know that there is an artificial constraint on the increase in stock pps this year. Removal of that constraint and the announcement of substantial sales should give the stock a solid boost.

     

    AT the start of a new quarter and year, any interested BigBoys will be more likely to open a position on a beaten down battery tech stock with a good story. If AXPW pps increases by 10 cents this quarter, it will look lovely on the quarterly report.

     

    "SEE, I'm still good at picking those baby tech stocks. Look at the gain, in only one quarter, on this jewel I found!"

     

    Given the ridiculously low marker cap of AXPW, even some low cost window dressing by a few funds could produce a nice pps pop.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Great discussion on how many shares this board might have. I was just trying to guess that myself. I would think the avg # of shares owned might be in the 10,000 - 20,000 range and maybe 2000 people. Well,, there may be something we can do as a group some day,, like fund the shelf? Idunno. I firmly believe that once the funding cloud is removed, the sun will shine...brightly.
    On another subject,, or the other subject. I know that there was an effort to short Chinese small caps last year, and this year..and I think some of that focussed on battery companies, just wonder if AXPW didnt get caught in some of that gunfire.
    18 Dec 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    You can review the historic short interest reports at http://bit.ly/uGVJsb

     

    I keep fairly close tabs on the reported numbers and have never seen a report that made me wonder whether the short interest was fairly attributable to factors other than normal market making activity.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >amishelvis ... Since there is a phobia displayed on the board about short sellers from time-to-time, would it not be prudent to ask;

     

    How many people here have put a request in with their broker to not loan out their shares?

     

    If this Concentrator has the percentages discussed a simple thing like this would stop, or lessen, a legitimate shorting attack on such a small float. I know it wouldn't stop "naked" shorting but that is dangerous & expensive on illiquid stocks, not to mention slightly illegal (but this aspect hasn't stopped the practice recently).

     

    Is it a possibility? I don't know, but I've tried to short some stocks in the past and be told there were not any available shares. These weren't stocks that had large short interests either.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    DRich: an excellent thought.

     

    One thing to keep in mind. IMO, from watching both the semi-monthly and daily FINRA-reported short sales: there is very little "real" shorting, likely for reasons that JP pointed out in the past.

     

    Second, market-makers are exempt from Reg SHO naked-short rules. They have extended periods for delivery (and some nefarious ways to extend even that, if need be). All in the name of "liquidity".

     

    IMO, that liquidity (and shorting, of course) tends to suppress price more than it helps find "true market value", all to the benefit of the larger market players and traders.

     

    Anyway, my point was really that until price starts to soar, restricting share loans won't have much effect as the majority of shorting that *does* occur ATM, by the market makers (again my opinion), will continue.

     

    For *once*, I can thank the "liquidity providers" and SS et al for *donating* their unwanted shares to me.

     

    I guess "it ain't all bad"! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2011, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    In the old days, brokers could not loan shares held in a cash account but they could loan shares held in a margin account. I don't know whether the rules still apply, but I could write volumes on the risks of micro-cap stocks in margin accounts. It's one of the many times in life when I had to pee on the electric fence for myself.
    18 Dec 2011, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >HTL ... I've said many times over the past few years that shorting AXPW was just a ridiculous thought but it hasn't stopped people from thinking it's happening or worry about it. Shorting by the MMs is not, to my mind, shorting. Just how business is done and not harmful.

     

    There are mechanisms that a broker can go "naked" and it is quite common on OTCC companies that are harmful and meant to be "bear raids". Since I'm not bright enough to fully understand how this happens (it just seems illegal ... but isn't) I can't make intelligent comment.

     

    My point was to remind folks that share protection from borrow is out there. It could be a useful tool to something like this group (if that kind of coordination isn't illegal (?)) and it might help someone sleep better at night.
    18 Dec 2011, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I believe most of us see 2012 as a make or break year for AXPW. I believe they will make it through 2012 whatever the financing and that something will pop in 2012. Otherwise I would be outta here and Axion too.

     

    NS is our biggest and most important catalyst. Selling several powercubes would be another but I'm not counting on it, just like I am not counting on any auto business. Either could happen, although anything auto would be a surprise.

     

    My dark horse favorite catalyst is the naming of a European battery manufacturing partner and a Axion - Company X (like a Bosch) joint venture including the establishment of a European manufacturing facility with a negative electrode line. That would blow the lid off the stock price IMHO and move Axion's automotive prospects front and center.

     

    You have to remember TG said a 9 to 11 negative electrode robotic line manufacturing facility (forgot exact number but a bunch) would run $50M or so. Financing an expansion of that magnitude is beyond Axion's means without the governments help and DOE has already crapped on Axion twice. Never mind that Europe is the ideal market for the PbC, that BMW proclaimed the battery technically perfect for stop start, that it would create a lot of American jobs and exports. DOE would rather give Nissan a billion for a handful of electric cars sold than invest in an American battery company with break-thru technology.

     

    Axion is under-gunned for the auto market. It just doesn't have the size and financial stability needed for high volume direct sales. Axion needs a big partner for autos one way or another and I look forward to the day they get hitched to the right company under favorable terms - versus Kool-aid from XIDE.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    I see a two-step pop scenario for (AXPW) in 2012.

     

    The first is one or more PRs regarding sales, contracts, ... whatever for it's product. I would like a couple of these in Q1 because ...

     

    The Russell indexes are reconstituted in June. If AXPW has some real business development underway and PR about it "out in the wild" when Russell starts looking at its portfolio constituents, there's an excellent chance AXPW could be on the list as a ("I coulda been a") "contenda".

     

    I can tell you that just being considered provides some increase in pps and volume and making it through the final cut provides a big pop as all the folks that follow (index to) the Russell(s) buy in. See (GWMGF) around mid-June to late-July this last year for an example. I took a really nice profit and missed the top by $0.06 IIRC (no, I'm not kicking myself any more over that "miss').

     

    It takes some time after inclusion for "normalcy" in pps to return.

     

    There's also a couple NASDAQ "green" and "tech" portfolios (CPST was in one year - did wonders for volume and pps short-term) that might consider AXPW. But I can't recall when they do their lists maybe around March? Not sure. I'd have to go digging.

     

    Anyway, my thoughts are that we need to have a steady (as possible) stream of positive announcements beginning ASAP and continuing on a semi-regular basis throughout Q1 to raise awareness (and pps) leading into the March-June time-frame.

     

    If that happens and what I've seen in the past occurs, the needed cash raise(s) could be done in or near those index-construction time-frames and raise much more cash with many fewer issued shares.

     

    As BW and others have pointed out, it need not be automotive. Any JPM/veridity stuff, NSC stuff, Rosewater stuff might be sufficient, depending on the sizes and ... "outlooks" embodied in the PR. Even smaller orders, in relatively quick succession would likely be enough.

     

    A couple "analysts" following would add to the "panache".

     

    So, if TG is playing "roll your own" poker now, I hope he (is able to) roll a few of the cards earlier rather than later.

     

    All just MHO (except the observed pps effects of index inclusion),
    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >HTL ... Doesn't Russel inclusion require that the company be listed on an exchange, not on the OTCC?
    18 Dec 2011, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    According to wiki:
    Russell excludes stocks trading below $1, stocks that trade on the pink sheets and OTC Bulletin Board, closed-end mutual funds, limited partnerships, royalty trusts, non-U.S. incorporated stocks (other than the benefits driven incorporations described above), foreign stocks, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).
    18 Dec 2011, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    HTL, RE: Price prediction. Based on the recent market and government insanity (rewarding high-debt & failure), I went back to my roots and the one guy who never let me down.

     

    "Dear Santa, - What I want for Xmas is for the share price of Axion to go over $1.00 on January 25th, 2012, the day after Norfolk Southern's 4Q11 earnings report and board of directors meeting. http://bit.ly/ueCvyX
    I am asking this because NS has been testing cost-saving yard engine batteries for several years and they are constructing new switching yards
    http://bit.ly/tDWdJ0
    and they may get a federal grant at a time when money is tight
    http://bit.ly/rOAlLV
    (I have emailed NS Investor Relations if the grant covers yard engine purchases or refits)
    As a bonus the new batteries are environment friendly. So please let the NS board of directors not object to an ASAP purchase order for Axion batteries with public announcement.

     

    If I can't have that than all I want is an Official Red Ryder Carbine-Action Two-Hundred-Shot Range Model Air Rifle!"
    18 Dec 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Thanks rgholbrook for the links. http://bit.ly/rOAlLV lead me to an overview of grant funded projects at http://bit.ly/uh8sjf which does not disclose much. Total cost of the intermodal facility expansion is estimated at $60.5 million with $15 million funded by the grant. Project claims to fame are presented as

     

    Project High lights
    »» Reduces Carbon emissions by 1.8 million tons
    »» Saves 162 million gallons of fuel over 30 years
    »» Increases the loaded trains expected to start or
    terminate in Harrisburg to 50 per day

     

    Judging from the claimed benefits, most of the reduced CO2 and fuel consumption benefits are expected from reduced truck traffic and roadway congestion.

     

    Project Benefits
    Currently, one third of all the miles traveled on Pennsylvania’s interstate system are traveled by large trucks.
    With freight demand projected to increase in the area, the congestion, roadway wear and tear, and safety risks
    will also increase. Expanding rail freight capacity reduces the amount of freight transported on these highly
    congested roadways. This rail capacity expansion will benefit freight shippers as well as all other highway users.
    18 Dec 2011, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    HTL - Back to the Market Makers for a bit with a question from an amateur.

     

    Could it be that the Marker Makers as a secondary (or maybe not secondary) part of the game are testing the resilience of the price bottom to determine relative strength? In other words, not drive down the price on shorts for profitability at this point in time, but just test the measure of the stockholders willpower so as to gauge future actions on a possible successful smallcap.
    If I were in that (MM) position, and I thought that Axion had some future potential, it would give me an advantage to know that the core stockholders held on under pressure.
    Thanks.
    18 Dec 2011, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    You'll shoot your eye out!
    18 Dec 2011, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Hey,
    I want that rifle as well. If we both cant have one that is just not fair.

     

    Fair:
    Another 4 letter word that begins with F
    18 Dec 2011, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Market makers are the quick-marts of the financial industry. They want to buy shares for a penny or two less than they can sell them for and couldn't care less whether the price is moving up or down as long as they make their spread. There are some trading games they can play to maximize the spreads, but there's not much future in taking a loss in their business.
    18 Dec 2011, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    DRich: not that I'm aware of, but I have *not* studied all the rules. But GWMGF is listed OTC, per ETrade (and my experience when some really bad fills occured and ETrade refunded my fee with explanations about OTC BB, etc.) and it made the cut on the Russell this year.

     

    Since it's always been below $1 (except for that one time), I know it couldn't make the NASDAQ, and likely no other.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2011, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    Oh ye of little faith that woudst take the word of a wikionite against that of the "omnipotent" HTL! ;-))

     

    PDF, in your reader search for "great western" in the search bar.

     

    http://bit.ly/vszMHv

     

    If you want to see which of the actual indexes it came in from (the "Global" includes all other Russell indexes),

     

    http://bit.ly/7rW9v5~r/RussellIndexesRecon...

     

    will let you pull down the individual PDFs and examine them.

     

    I suspect it was the micro-cap one, but I've forgotten (OK, OK, I'm not *that* "omnipotent") :-((

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    RGHolbrook:

     

    Great post - I know you've been good and will get at least one of those items!

     

    "If I can't have that than all I want is an Official Red Ryder Carbine-Action Two-Hundred-Shot Range Model Air Rifle!"

     

    I had a "Daisy"?

     

    Mom: "You're going to put somebody's eye out with that!"

     

    I can't remember what happened to it. But it didn't matter, we made rubbr-band pistols and rifles (1x4, carved appropriately, clothes pin nailed on and *big* rubber-bands).

     

    Mom: "You're going to put somebody's eye out with that!"

     

    We replaced them faster than she could get rid of them and she finally gave up!

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. your avatar looks like my accounts in May of '09! =>8-O
    19 Dec 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    mds5375: -->> what JP said.

     

    And don't forget I'm an amateur too (I used to not be able to spell that and now I are one)!

     

    IMO, the only time they have much concern and *do* move the market is if their portfolio is excessively long or short. They will try to get back to market neutral and have the tools to do that.

     

    JP may differ on that, but I think he is ill-equipped as he has no tin-foil hat AFAIK. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2011, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >HTL ... Great Western is listed on an exchange, a Canadian exchange. It trades in the USA on the OTC. The fact that it is a Vancouver listed stock, in my mind, would make it eligible for the Russel Global. Our favorite stock here doesn't trade on a listed exchange, although it would be nice if it did. It will someday and that will open a few more doors.
    19 Dec 2011, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    You need to remember that GWG is exchange listed in the Frozen North, and that may be the reason for the inclusion.
    19 Dec 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Of all the goals I had when we did the original Axion reverse merger with my shell, an exchange listing is the only one that still eludes me. The good news is that except for the "minimum bid price" requirements of $2 and $4 respectively, Axion has satisfied all of the quantitative and qualitative listing standards of both the Amex and Nasdaq since December 2009
    19 Dec 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    I wondered about that but refrained from commenting as I wasn't sure if that was a factor. I guess I'll have to read the Russell Rules one of these days.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, thanks for the links and data. It would indeed be interesting to see if the benefits of PbC or other "green" yard engines have already been included in the fossil fuel use calculations, or if deployment of such engines would add even more significant savings. Special thanks for links that show that our govt. may actually be doing something that aids mainstreet, where any long-term national recovery will begin. Could it be the mantras of "Cheap & sustainable" are replacing "Cost is no object & damn the limited resources" in D.C. ? Happy Holidays - RGH
    18 Dec 2011, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    "Could it be the mantras of "Cheap & sustainable" are replacing "Cost is no object & damn the limited resources" in D.C. ?"

     

    I hope it's replacing "Give me (almost) all your money!"

     

    The rest will follow, naturally.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2011, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the short sales analysis.. I always thought that the Frankfurt exchange was a viable conduit for that type of action. I just read that they are not allowing that since 2010.. anywhere else it might be done?
    I do understand the Finra #s,,took me awhile to get that one. With all the trash talk on yahoo I assumed that someone was shorting,,but it could just as well be a competitor, or someone with an axe to grind against Axion mngmnt....
    18 Dec 2011, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The SECs rule changes have made it very hard to short stocks like Axion and I've seen no evidence of shorting in the years I've followed Axion. The trash talk seems to have a life of its own and I'm still puzzled by the question of who would want to support something that transparent on a sustained basis, but short sellers are not on my list.
    19 Dec 2011, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Richard93
    , contributor
    Comments (817) | Send Message
     
    You know its competitors, lazy workers, and people who don't want tech pushed to the limit like it should. In some industries we maybe behind by as much as 40-60 years because of this. To many pay offs and spying. Cloak and dagger can be good but it can also hurt innovation that is needed. Medicine, transportation, teaching, and the media are in this group. What would have happened if JFK's speech from Rice University had not been recorded or MLK's from Washington DC? Lost inspiration for multiple generations to come. The world deserves better!
    19 Dec 2011, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    Needham & Company reiterates a 'Hold' on A123 Systems (NASDAQ: AONE).
    Needham analyst says, "Our financial estimate revision is based on the potential for further delays in lithium-ion (li-ion) orders from Fisker Automotive (N/R). The high-profile Karma has begun to make its way into the driveways of customers. However, probably not at a rate fast enough to absorb the estimated 2,200-plus battery packs shipped until 2H12. In addition, we believe other high profile programs such as the Chevy (NYSE: GM)(Not/Rated) Spark could experience delays due to ongoing industry focus on the Volt."
    19 Dec 2011, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): FYI early Level 2 show BTIG and PUMA present again (those folks that show 5K that never changes). BTW, with everyone showing 5K, that's probably the "stand size" that ignores the SEC/FINRA rules.

     

    PUMA bid 5K $0.305, BTIG 5K @ $0.30 (along with NITE and HDSN).

     

    On the ask side, BTIG 5K @ $0.31 w/PUMA and NITE the same.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2011, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just want to see some larger block buying again today.
    19 Dec 2011, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Looks like you are getting your wish. Over 240,000 shares sold, mostly in 4 large blocks. Unfortunately, the blocks are selling between $0.31-0.29/share. So we have a new bottom.
    19 Dec 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (305) | Send Message
     
    Looks more like block selling.
    19 Dec 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Look like VT is trying to be the new CA.

     

    http://bit.ly/u9DeBA

     

    My favorite line is:

     

    "A push to reduce energy use in transportation, which accounts for more than half the state's current energy demand, by getting more residents to use public transportation, ride bikes and walk. At the same time, many vehicles are expected to be powered by electricity. Energy planners see this as a way to even out energy use, with cars charging their batteries overnight, when demand for power currently is very low."

     

    Good luck with that. Would be nice if VT could just order everyone to buy an EV, or walk, or take the bus because the state government wants to close the local nuclear power plant and can't figure out how to do that and reduce the need for fossil fuels at the same time.
    19 Dec 2011, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Looks like even triple bottoms can't overcome tax-loss selling. I'm getting pretty sure that's what this is now when you look at volumes and the FINRA-reported daily short sales.

     

    A week, as of Friday:
    1212 TotVol 0364751, Sht 00160051 43.88%
    1213 TotVol 0164344, Sht 00082245 50.04%
    1214 TotVol 0411401, Sht 00084400 20.52%
    1215 TotVol 0324683, Sht 00113909 35.08%
    1216 TotVol 0604796, Sht 00082990 13.72%

     

    Not that last line and trend leading to it, for both volume and shorts. This means, to *me*, that these market-maker(s), which are often arms of the brokers, have a lot of shares in their portfolio.

     

    Friday, buy, sell and unknown ended at 122,059, 169,062 and 33,563 respectively. Buy:sell ended at ~1:1.39 and buy:(sell+unknown) at 1:1.66. This also suggest reasonably strong selling.

     

    So they are getting sell orders from their brokerages, I think.

     

    We hit $0.29 today in spite of the fact that there was a relative big buy order, 43K, in place just before a selling wave @ $0.30 took that bid level out.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    I've got a bit for 10k @ .25

     

    Not sure how I'll feel if it fills
    19 Dec 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Old news, but new to me ...

     

    By Philip Newswanger. Posted: May 13, 2011

     

    philip.newswanger@insi...

     

    To keep pace with surging freight shipments, Norfolk Southern has ordered 1,500 specially designed coal cars and 242 AC locomotives.

     

    AC locomotives?

     

    "Locomotives are powered by diesel engines that generate electricity for the traction motors that turn the wheels," said Robin Chapman, Norfolk Southern spokesman, in an email. "The generators produce either direct current (DC) or alternating current (http://bit.ly/vXOjuz).

     

    "Most locomotives in our fleet are DC," he said. "There are operating and maintenance cost advantages of AC over DC, but AC units are costlier to manufacture.

     

    "For us, the chief advantage of AC locomotives is their ability to produce high tractive effort at low speeds, and so they are well suited for hauling heavy coal trains up mountains. At higher speeds, the advantages diminish."

     

    AC technology, however, has improved in recent years, Chapman said. The railroad will order the AC locomotives from two suppliers, GE and Progress Rail Services.

     

    The locomotive prices are confidential, Chapman said.

     

    http://bit.ly/vuE7Co
    19 Dec 2011, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Raise:

     

    With the PPS heading consistently downwards, and without the certainty of any event driven reversal in this trend in the next three months (not withstanding the well discussed supply and demand dynamics which may, or may not, change in the short term), AXPW could easily find that the raise possible from the shelf is inadequate to see it through any significant period of time, <9-12 months, where 18-24 months would be preferred.

     

    In this circumstance, would there be another private investment with appropriate additional share issuance and likely motivational discount to market? How would this course impact the shelf, or are they mutually exclusive?

     

    Raising less than $7MM with the issuance of 22MM shares seems tragically inadequate, but the company executives and board do not control market sentiment (I don't believe in aces up sleeves any more than I do that guy with the red jacket and white hair).

     

    Thanks
    19 Dec 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    With the amount of shares recently traded do you guys feel another big % owner is bailing? It seems as if SS should have been out of ammo a long time ago.
    19 Dec 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    In Q-2 and Q-3 when Quercus and Special Situations were pounding stock out the door at alarming rates, they never exceeded a combined total of 22.5% of volume because every market has normal day to day activity. While Quercus has scaled back its selling in Q-4, the price weakness has no doubt spooked some street holders and it would be unreasonable to assume that Special Sits has stepped in and filled the entire gap. Total trading volume has been 12.6 million shares to date. I believe Special Situations is getting to the bottom of the barrel, but am not convinced that they're out of stock yet.
    19 Dec 2011, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18058) | Send Message
     
    Anthlj & Articula: I think it is tax loss selling now.

     

    Sell now to offset gains, wait 30 days or more and buy back, if they like the company, will avoid the wash rule, IIRC.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    In general an effective Form S-3 registration statement constitutes a general solicitation and precludes a private placement.

     

    Stockholders may not have access to detailed information on the supply and demand dynamic and the identity and remaining holdings of the sellers but management most certainly does. It also has detailed knowledge of all pending business developments and anticipated cash demands. Speculating about horror scenarios that could only occur if management wasn't paying attention to detail strikes me as counterproductive, almost a light version of the Yahoo! message board bashers, but then I've noticed that pattern in many of your posts.
    19 Dec 2011, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    You have to be kidding me John/jakurtz. I posed a perfectly reasonable question given where the AXPW stock is today, its recent trajectory and its need to raise cash. If you can't tolerate even the slightest deviation from the hymn sheet, then in a way you become as bad as the nutty negative elements on the other boards. Please don't be so paranoid. Fair discussion and some circumspection can only strengthen this concentrator and increase its utility as a resource for stockholders, existing and future. I fully understand and sympathize with your desire to protect what has been created here, and understand and follow your enthusiasm for AXPW, but I assume you don't want to create a one party state. Maybe I assume wrongly, and should keep my 'deviant' thoughts to myself.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Questions that incorporate complex negative assumptions do not lead to intelligent discussion of issues. In fact they circumvent intelligent discussion by foreclosing discussion of the assumptions. From what I've seen, most of the comments in your history begin with a distinctly negative spin.

     

    http://bit.ly/uaC7bA

     

    Perhaps I'm a little paranoid after watching paid trolls take control of another forum. I may also be right.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    "Speculating about horror scenarios that could only occur if management wasn't paying attention to detail strikes me as counterproductive, almost a light version of the Yahoo! message board bashers, but then I've noticed that pattern in many of your posts. "

     

    John...IMHO...anxiety.... see real bashers of late...
    19 Dec 2011, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    "...paid trolls take control of another forum..."

     

    You have exhibited more patience than I would with the trolls...I still think stress taking it's toll on many trolls...but...you "...may also be right. "!
    19 Dec 2011, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    JP, both "A" names above have an interestingly/eerily consistent pattern in comments.
    19 Dec 2011, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Since I'm convinced that there are elements who would like nothing more than to disrupt this Concentrator, I'm more suspicious with new commenters than I probably should be; but it never hurts to show a little vigilance.
    19 Dec 2011, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I agree.
    19 Dec 2011, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    point made...suspicion and vigilance healthy!
    19 Dec 2011, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    You're accusing me of that negatively bashing Axion? I'm in for way more PPS than the average shareholder here because I bought on the way up in the March/April timeframe. I want nothing more than to see Axion succeed big. Please don't lump me in with the negative Nancy's. I've posted 13 times so far, how can you possibly see a trend from me?
    19 Dec 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    No one accused you or anthlj of anything, but a small remark that you two have similar postings and somehow you both come out swinging...interesting.

     

    Also, Articula you just so happen to have the exact same avg. share price as the brand new commentor OHBOY over on John's latest article.

     

    Again, very interesting...but I have not accused you of anything yet...should I?

     

    I am getting this strange schizophrenic vibe coming from you though.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    FWIW I've not noticed anything in your comments that concerns me. Your questions are straight-forward and don't have any built in land-mines. I'm less sanguine about others who raise more complex points that incorporate questionable assumptions.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    We're all a bit to mature on this forum to be arguing - I haven't the slightest clue who OHBoy is. I've actually followed John for quite awhile on Konrad's site Altenergystocks.com. This concentrator has kept my faith in Axion when its stock price is at its darkest hour.

     

    I was simply posing whether there could be another distressed seller out here?

     

    Lasty, Unless you have access to my financials you have no idea what my avg pps is so how could you possibly make that statement? It sucks that I'm being accused by someone who wrote such a great article up top. People can and should be allowed to pose tough questions here. If I'm wondering it (and I'm by far the most savvy here) than I'm sure others are wondering it.

     

    Anywho I'm done defending myself, this isn't the forum for hurt feelings. Just know in my heart of hearts I'm a HUGE Axion supporter and enjoy this forum immensely.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP, I come from a simpler mind. I don't have the technical background that a lot of people here do. Still my money is as important to me as others here - even if I"m in for less than 30k shares.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    These are tense times and the inability to access clear and definitive data only makes it worse. We can tell from historical data that we're drawing close to the end of the determined selling, but when you factor in the price declines and EZ problems it's almost impossible to reach a definitive conclusion. The best we can do is muddle through together and try to make sense of the hard data points we do have. Hard questions can only improve the level of conversation and analysis.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    You posted your past comments and avg pps just a few minutes ago...

     

    "22: Beginning Nov. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    Bang I'm in the same boat, I bought my biggest purchase at 1.25, on the way up after the lead acid battery purchase agreement. Unfortunately, it made it to 1.27 and then tanked. My avg PPS is just at .78. Man it woulda been nice to get shares at these prices :-)"
    19 Dec 2011, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Ha didn't even know I did that I stand corrected. As you can see I'm down quite a bit. So yes I'm rooting like hell for Axion to win.
    19 Dec 2011, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Axion Concentrator 34: Beginning Dec. 16, 2011, jarkutz's article [View instapost]

     

    With the amount of shares recently traded do you guys feel another big % owner is bailing? It seems as if SS should have been out of ammo a long time ago.

     

    Dec 19 01:01 PM|1 Like|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Axion Power Concentrator 33: Beginning Dec. 15, 2011: Jarkutz's Article [View instapost]
    Same here Cory :)

     

    Dec 16 10:54 AM|3 Likes|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Axion Power Concentrator 31: Beginning Dec. 12, 2011 [View instapost]
    So I need a bit of help figuring out the psychological behavior of investors. Given the volume the past week at the prices, lets say average pps of .35. At what point do we start to climb given investors who track the stock closely have been picking the stock up for .35 recently. Stocks need buyers willing to buy at higher prices. Given they've seen the recent prices how do we move out of this range? What psychologically takes place to move the price up?

     

    Dec 12 01:30 PM|4 Likes|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Axion Power Concentrator 27: Beginning Dec. 3, 2011 [View instapost]
    The high volume around lack of news is intriguing. SS must be in all-out dump mode

     

    Dec 6 03:30 PM|4 Likes|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Axion Power Concentrator 25: Beginning Nov.28, 2011 RE: Viridity and the Power Cube [View instapost]

     

    Thanks fellas, smaller fish than most of you guys. Still extremely interested for reasons beyond financial gain. This could truly be earth-moving, disruptive technology that helps the rich world ween itself off of Mid-East oil dependence. I look forward, and hope I'm alive to see a clean energy economy. I find Axion to potentially be a huge part of my drea.

     

    Nov 30 12:18 PM|3 Likes|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Axion Power Concentrator 25: Beginning Nov.28, 2011 RE: Viridity and the Power Cube [View instapost]

     

    When is the next time we'd be able to see the share situation for Special Sits?

     

    Nov 30 10:59 AM|2 Likes|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Axion Concentrator 24: Beginning Nov. 24, 2011 [View instapost]
    HTL,

     

    I know you've posted this before, but where do you check the recent bid/sell activity?

     

    Thanks,
    Nov 28 08:41 PM|2 Likes|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Axion Power Concentrator 22: Beginning Nov. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    Bang I'm in the same boat, I bought my biggest purchase at 1.25, on the way up after the lead acid battery purchase agreement. Unfortunately, it made it to 1.27 and then tanked. My avg PPS is just at .78. Man it woulda been nice to get shares at these prices :-)
    Nov 22 11:02 AM|4 Likes|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Axion Power Concentrator 22: Beginning Nov. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    Axion Power's PowerCube Battery Energy Storage System Integrated Into PJM Utility Grid
    8 minutes ago - PR Newswire via Comtex
    Axion Power International, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW), the developer of advanced leadcarbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that its PowerCube(TM) battery energy storage and battery system is being integrated as a power resource for the PJM Regulation Market, which serves 58 million people in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia. The use of PowerCube on the PJM market marks the first time an external energy storage system has been integrated into a major power grid.

     

    Axion Power, working in partnership with Philadelphia-based Viridity Energy on this and other projects, will initially participate in the PJM market as a 100 kw resource that will soon be ramped to higher kw levels. As a curtailment service provider in PJM, Viridity Energy will be managing the Axion PowerCube, a highly mobile and scalable 500kw/250kw Battery Energy Storage System.

     

    "Our PowerCube, based on our patented PbC battery technology, is a first of its kind smaller online storage device that will be ramped up to higher kw levels," said Axion Power CEO Thomas Granville. "Going forward, our technology can be configured in building blocks of 1 MW of power for 30 minutes, for PJM applications. It can also provide power quality, back-up power, power smoothing and load leveling in addition to the initial demand response we provided today. We are excited to be working with Viridity Energy and involved in this important PJM project. We see this project as a great way to demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of the PowerCube. This format will be used for wind and solar storage as well as for our oil rig back up power application."

     

    "At Viridity Energy, we are excited to be among the first active resources participating in the regulation market. I want to thank and congratulate our partner and customer, Axion Power International, for being ready to lead the way and take advantage of this emerging opportunity. Axion's innovative battery technology has the ability to provide quicker, more accurate regulation service than other resources do," said Audrey Zibelman, CEO and President of Viridity Energy. "By increasing the compensation paid to fast acting, accurate regulation resources, the FERC and PJM regulation change strengthens the ability of customers to provide a service that enhances the reliability of the grid while improving the competitiveness of electric markets."

     

    A recent ruling by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reduced the minimum participation requirement from 500 kw to 100 kw and increased the compensation paid to regulation resources, paving the way for the use of the PowerCube on the PJM project.
    Nov 22 10:55 AM|5 Likes|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Axion Power Poised To Dominate Energy Storage For Stop-Start Idle Elimination [View article]
    Isn't the revenue ramp insignificant due to the fact its traditional lead-acid batteries?
    Nov 16 09:58 AM|0 Likes|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Is Stop-Start Idle Elimination Crushing Vehicle Electrification? [View article]
    John,

     

    Could you layout what a possible 2012 timeline would look like if Axion announced a design win for 2013?

     

    Nov 2 03:36 PM|2 Likes|Report Abuse|Link to Comment Energy Storage: A Bloody Q3 Creates Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I find it interesting they haven't reported Q3 - maybe this is just the conspiracy theory part of me but given they announced 1.25 months into Q3 for Q2's earnings I'm wondering if there is a big announcement they intend to deliver during their Q3 call? Volumes have been shockingly low the last few weeks. Odd times for us Axion investors.

     

    Oct 28 03:49 PM|1 Like|Report Abuse|Link to Comment 4 Bargain-Priced Stocks In The Energy Storage Sector [View article]
    K-Lew,

     

    They mentioned they will not release shares until a significant price event took place. Since it's not the DOE announcement there must be a pending Norfolk agreement in the pipeline.

     

    What I"m interested to see is once Special Sits stops releasing shares, will there be demand to drive the price up? Who is buying these shares? Will there be enough demand to push the share price up?
    19 Dec 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    With my posting history posted please don't accuse me of negatively bashing Axion.

     

    Sorry Maya - I don't mean to spam, but I don't take those allegations lightly. I love these forums and want to continue to be a part of of them
    19 Dec 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My thoughts are that all of us did not like seeing 30 cents breached. Part of me right now could quarrel with blue sky.

     

    The other part is screaming for me to buy more.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    I've got kiddo #1 on the way or I'd be in for more. I just can't do that given the recent price turbulence. I can't go back to my wife and tell her that we've lost ~55% so far. Granted I'm playing with house money since I was able to ride the XIDE wave up earlier this year.

     

    Given that - I'm still very very bullish on Axion and she's behind me 100%. I just can't put more in, even though I think its the value of a lifetime :)
    19 Dec 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Rolling onward to the next Concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Dec 2011, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    anyone else get "dropped" for "Track New Comments" on maya's concentrators?
    maybe just a SA hiccup with me...
    19 Dec 2011, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I did. Resolved by itself though.
    19 Dec 2011, 07:47 PM Reply Like
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