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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Concentrator 35: Beginning Dec. 19, 2011; jakutz's article  136 comments
    Dec 19, 2011 2:03 PM
    Axion Power: The Buy Of The Decade


    I want to start by clearing away a few things so no one is confused. I am not an expert financier (I know a little), I am not a battery tech geek (I know a little) and I am not John Petersen (I do know him). So why am I writing an article on a stock I have limited credentials on? I believe I have a unique perspective that comes from being a non-believer to an AXPWgelical.

    Axion Power Finances:

    I am starting with their finances because this one aspect many retail investors over look, and their finances alone make a compelling case to buy the stock now, considering a 30M market cap.

    Start off with debt, their only debt reported on their most recent 10K is made up of grants and one $500k loan held at 3% interest backed by the equipment purchased. This means no one owns there products, patents, and assets other than the shareholders.

    At their New Castle, PA plant, they have two traditional lead acid battery lines that can produce 2000 batteries a day. Running at only 80% capacity at $50/battery that is a potential revenue of $20M/Year. The same plant also has the capacity to produce 1000 AGM batteries at $120 each producing revenue of $24M at just 80% capacity. Running their current plant at 80% capacity would produce $44 Million a year in revenue and roughly $6.6M in gross profit. Their hard assets are equal to $13.3M. If you factor in their New Castle plant they bought for $700K on foreclosure that would easily account for the remaining shareholders equity of $17.5M (current Market cap at 30.8M minus 13.3M in hard assets).

    You may have noticed I have not mentioned any income thus far being derived from their proprietary PbC Battery technology that will potentially be a disruptive technology. It is no less than extraordinary that I just justified buying the company at the current market price on finances alone, and I did not even need to mention what the company is all about...the PbC battery, which holds extraordinary growth potential.

    Axion Power's Technology and Business Model:

    Axion Power's technology is their proprietary negative carbon electrode. A battery manufacturer will substitute their negative lead based electrode in standard AGM batteries with Axion's carbon based electrode. Sort of like intel selling chips to computer manufacturers. The battery is the computer, the chip is the electrode. A common bit of confusion for a lot of people watching Axion Power is that they believe Axion wants to be a battery manufacturer and therefore should be doing everything traditional battery manufacturers do to sell their product, i.e. publish technical spec, list cost, etc. The problem with this is Axion does not want to be a battery manufacturer, they only want to sell their electrode to battery manufacturers, but in order to do that they have to prove the PbC is a better battery to existing OEM's. So in the short term, they have to make the battery for demonstration and testing purposes, but the last thing they want to do is put existing battery manufacturers (their future customers) into a corner by publishing technical specifications or pricing too early. The beauty of this is they will not be in competition with anyone and they will be making the highest margin possible since no one will be able to make their electrode without infringing on their patents. I think Buffett might call that a moat.

    Axion's recent White Paper does however show categorically the superiority of their PbC technology over existing VRLA/AGM batteries (www.axionpower.com/Profiles/Investor/Inv...=) The White Paper illustrates how their PbC battery shows 10x-20x higher Dynamic Charge Acceptance after 2-9 months and 5-10x shorter charge after 2-9 months than VRLA/AGM. Both of these performance matrices are essential in Stop/Start idle elimination. For further reading on micro-hybrids and Stop/Start idle elimination, you can check out John Peterson's article here seekingalpha.com/article/297511-micro-hy... and Johnson Controls highlights their forecast for the industry in their Power Solutions Analyst Day here www.johnsoncontrols.com/publish/us/en/in....

    Axion Power's Current Testing Markets:

    Their are several markets very conducive to Axion's PbC battery technology where they have made major in roads and are in testing for over two years.

    1. Automotive: Axion Power has been testing their PbC battery with BMW (since 2009, as well as "several other European OEM's"). GM: "We are currently moving to in-vehicle testing with numerous OEM's," is written in Axion's recent application for a grant from the DOE with GM as their partner. This is no small feat, considering how notoriously slow-paced the automotive industry moves when pursuing new technology.

    2. Rail: Norfolk Southern testing in their NS999 (since 2009)

    3. Power Grid/Energy Storage: PJM and Viridity (www.marketwatch.com/story/axion-powers-p...)

    They are dealing with the largest market movers in each industry (keep in mind they are currently trading for around $30M.)

    Axion Power's Market Dynamics:

    Everyone knows the economic market conditions for the past three years have made the markets more than unstable and micro-cap stocks on the Bulletin Board surely were not spared the knife when it came to funds looking to cut out risk. The past 18 months have been extremely tumultuous for the market dynamics of Axion Power. Quercus Trust, a large fund that invests in green technology, was the first to begin selling off their 18M share (including warrants) position looking for liquidity to help support other companies in the fund that were not able to stand on their own feet. From here on out rule 144 of the SEC limits the amount of shares Quercus can continue selling. Other than in the third quarter of this year, Quercus has been a very responsible seller accounting for only 10% of the daily volume. Special Situations is another fund that has been selling, driving downward pressure on the share price very hard. In their 13G filing as of Sept. 30, Special Situations had 3.1M shares left. Since then, total volume for sellers has been ~5M shares, considering the very aggressive selling coupled with the lack of bad news (on the contrary the news has only gotten better) that has taken place over the past several weeks we (Axion Concentrators seekingalpha.com/instablog/228383-mayasc...) believe Special Situations is all but out of the picture. My belief is that myself as well as many of the other Axion Concentrator commentors have done the bulk of the buying. Considering that we all believe it to be a 5-10 bagger stock, most of those shares are in what can be termed "strong hands" and unwilling to sell at any price below a multiple of 5 from the current cap.

    Axion Power's Coming Capital Raise:

    Back in March, Axion announced a shelf registration to sell stock to raise $18M -$28M. Without any expansion Axion can last as a going concern until the end of Q2 2012 without any additional funds. On the most recent conference call Thomas Granville, the CEO of Axion Power, said they had been offered financing but not on terms acceptable to them. The growing consensus is that Axion Power will wait to do a positive press release causing the price to rise and then do the capital raise.

    Axion Power's Risk/Reward Profile:

    The two major risks that could create a bad outcome are the capital raise and worst nightmare scenario that the PbC does not gain any market acceptance in any of the markets it has been testing in for over two years now. If the PbC does not get market acceptance in the next six months, then they would not have to build out additional manufacturing capabilities and they would only need to raise the $18M on the low-end of the shelf registration. Not terrible considering they can still produce at least $44M in revenue and 6.6M in gross profit with their existing plant. They would not have to pay taxes because of NOL carryover from their previous years and no need for R&D expenses, both of which would increase their net income. If Axion does receive commercial orders for their PbC before Q2 of 2012, thereby confirming the PbC market acceptance, they should have no trouble raising capital, considering they are getting offers for that already. In addition, the price should spike since there are a lot of people who are aware of this stock thanks to John Petersen, but the majority are not willing to buy in now because of doubt surrounding the PbC's commercial viability. Once that doubt is put to rest through a commercial order from one or any of the first tier OEM's that are testing it. The share price should finally begin reflecting the true market potential of this disruptive technology.

    I have a hard time believing their is a better risk/reward profile currently in the market. I want to thank John for a lot of the information that I then confirmed with my own due diligence as I would assume anyone reading this article would do.

    ####

    I want to again thank jarkutz for a wonderful article!
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Comments (136)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from John Petersen:

     

    Since I'm convinced that there are elements who would like nothing more than to disrupt this Concentrator, I'm more suspicious with new commenters than I probably should be; but it never hurts to show a little vigilance.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Nice summary review in the Header Maya... Thanks!
    19 Dec 2011, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Articula and anthlj,
    You'll have to forgive JP a if he tends to jump a little hard. We've had more than our share of posters on Yahoo who came to "discuss" issues, only to prove to be posters with agendas to rival Sockpuppet. And let's face it. We're all worried and stressed about the future of Axion. The stock price still won't keep a bottom, and it's had almost a year of unrelenting selling driving it down by Quercus and Special Sits.
    As for the question:
    "With the amount of shares recently traded do you guys feel another big % owner is bailing?"
    I think it has been pointed out several times that any of the other large, "insider" holders would have to file SEC paperwork to sell their shares. Since I'm sure we've got enough members of this concentrator who look for things like this, we can assume this is not the case.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    The other two big holders, Blackrock and Manatuk Hill, are not subject to any particular SEC filing requirements unless they fall below a 5% ownership level. For that matter, Special Situations is not required to include Axion in its holdings report, but it does. So in that case, at least, we get better information than Special Situations is required to provide.

     

    The last couple months have been pretty brutal and that will always spook some street holders. I think the selling pressure we've been seeing is part Special Situations and part retail holders who are moving to the sidelines. We'll know more in about 60 days when Special Sits files its next holdings report.
    19 Dec 2011, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. As usual, I stand corrected.
    19 Dec 2011, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    LT - Thanks for the clarification. What is the requirement for having to file to divest? Is it simply anyone who invests on the behalf of others?
    19 Dec 2011, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    As I explained in my last response the two other big holders don't have any particular filing obligations with respect to Axion.

     

    There are basically two levels of reporting. If you own more than 10% of a company's stock you have to report every transaction. If you own more than 5% of a company's stock you have to report when your ownership goes over 5% and report again when your ownership falls below 5%. Professional fund managers also file quarterly reports on exchange listed securities held in their funds. While the fund manager rules don't specifically apply to OTCBB stocks like Axion, some managers like Special Situations provide the information voluntarily.
    19 Dec 2011, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    Two other large holders that have been discussed are Blackrock and I forget the second that has holdings similar in size to SS ...

     

    JP - are their holdings big enough that they would have to file paperwork if they started selling? I can't remember if the threshold is 5% or 10% ...
    19 Dec 2011, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Got it, it will be very interesting to see what happens in Feb when we see SS filings. This must be a decimal point for Blackrock in the long-term scheme of things. I can't imagine they'd be pulling out now.
    19 Dec 2011, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    Blackrock and Manatuck Hill both own more than 5% but less than 10%, so the only report that would be required is a Schedule 13D that would have to be filed if their interest dropped below 5%. Since Axion is an OTCBB stock, fund managers don't have to include it their holdings reports, although Special Situations does so voluntarily.

     

    We can't know that Blackrock and Manatuck are not selling, but my occasional conversations with the manager of Manatuck have convinced me that both are in for the long haul, rather than a short term trade.
    19 Dec 2011, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    The captain has illuminated the fasten seat belts sign. He has extinguished the no smoking sign so smoke 'em if you've got 'em. If needed air sickness bags are in the seat back in front of you. Please don't move about the cabin. If you would like a courtesy beverage the drink cart has spilled its contents in the aisle. Enjoy the beverage within your reach.
    19 Dec 2011, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    I laughed and laughed. Leave it to Bang to simplify the situation.

     

    If you have ever got caught trying to catch the falling knife ( like I have several times) then buying Axion right now is a squeamish situation. However I am glad to have recently bought. Until one thing pops up that is negative news I am going forward. In 40 years of stock purchases I have not seen a product so ready to hit a growing market at the perfect time. Doesn't mean Axion will make it. But it is a lot better bet than anything else I can find.

     

    To entice you some more I have written an article which outlines Axion's production capabilities and my idea of what holds true for 2012. Maya will publish it at his leisure after fact checking my work. If you don't see it, know that I have been scrutinized by the best of them and failed to pass the honest argument test.
    19 Dec 2011, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    If you want I'll be happy to take a look too.

     

    jlp at ipo-law dot com
    19 Dec 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Futurist: I'm getting to it. Tomorrow, carpets go down. To empty out seven closets and two bedrooms, was a bit tasking, and took most of yesterday, and a lot of today (I have to fight my way into the bathrooms around here). While they are being put down, I'll give it a read and an edit, and hopefully your article will top the next Concentrator.

     

    Appolgies for the delay.
    19 Dec 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    I am in no hurry. I thought you might want John to take a peak. I will send it to him tonight.

     

    Just keeping the buzz up. Not pushing you. You have house restoration to keep you busy. I wish I had the time to do house restortion and write a novel. Ah, the exuberance of youth. Me, I simply work my 12 hours per day.
    19 Dec 2011, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ha! Great timing. Just sent you an email suggesting to do what you are going to do.

     

    Great article! Terrific follow up to jarkutz's. I encourage JP to first take a peak.
    19 Dec 2011, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    All documents are forwarded. Enjoy your remodeling project.
    Some day I would love to hear how far the actual cost came from the initial bids?
    19 Dec 2011, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "Me, I simply work my 12 hours per day."

     

    Where do people find these half time jobs?
    19 Dec 2011, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-inv: Gut busting funny. I expect to invest most of next year into a book that from which I may never make a nickle.
    20 Dec 2011, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Glad you appreciated, Maya.
    20 Dec 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    That should be great reading Futurist, looking forward to it. Just be sure when Maya is done fact checking and what-not he posts your article with your avatar spelled correctly...otherwise it might be "Fartuist Article" or something of that sort :-)
    19 Dec 2011, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Ouch,
    Here I have cultivated my followers with my bold predictions of the future, like, AXPW will increase in value.

     

    I have used a photograph of art I find awe inspiring for those wanting to see something solid in the future.
    And to what avail?

     

    For a fart joke. Excuse me , Are we on Yahoo? :-)
    19 Dec 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yeah, I noticed that jakurtz. Some editor I am!
    19 Dec 2011, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh, so sorry, my dear futurist. I have soiled your heir of dignity and opulence with my untoward snickery. Please, pardon my lack of decorum as I sit back down to quietly finish my crumpets and tea. :-)
    19 Dec 2011, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    NStar to test A123’s storage cell

     

    Would boost access to wind, solar energy

     

    By Erin Ailworth | GLOBE STAFF DECEMBER 19, 2011

     

    http://b.globe.com/uQTnD0

     

    Trailers, Trailers, everywhere!

     

    The giant battery system - a collection of 82,000 to 84,000 lithium-ion battery cells housed in a 53-foot-long shipping container - is expected to be up and running by the middle of next year.

     

    A number of utilities around the country are testing various energy-storage technologies, but it is too early to tell which will be the most cost-effective and efficient, said Theodore O’Neill, an analyst at Wunderlich Securities in New York. While A123’s advanced battery system is impressive, O’Neill said, its $2 million installed cost is too expensive.
    19 Dec 2011, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    A123's press release specified that it was one of their 2 MW systems, but omitted the detail that it represents 500 kWh of energy.

     

    http://yhoo.it/vWXqav
    19 Dec 2011, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    HMMM,
    That sounds suspiciously like a $500,000 PowerCube. Nope, that can not be. Lithium is the best ever solution till the end of time.
    Just can't be.
    19 Dec 2011, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    "Under the terms of the agreement, one of A123's two-megawatt (2MW) GBS solutions is proposed to be interconnected to the power grid at NSTAR's substation in Medway. It will be owned and operated by A123, and will be designed to provide area regulation services, which are used to address momentary differences between electric power supply and demand. A123 expects to earn revenue from these area regulation services from ISO-New England (ISO-NE) as part of the Alternative Technology Regulation (ATR) Pilot Program, which allows "non-generating resources" such as advanced energy storage systems to receive compensation for area regulation and other ancillary services. In addition, the pilot project is expected to allow A123 to learn more about how its GBS performs in real-world applications in order to facilitate further product improvements designed to reduce total cost of ownership."

     

    So, like Axion's PowerCube test, NSTAR isn't buying the 2MW system from A123, they're just using it in their system as a test demo for themselves and for A123. Seems like this is the pattern now. The utilities aren't going to pay for these initial battery tests, they are going to let the battery companies provide them so that both can get test data. Then everyone can see which ones work best, compare prices, and go from there.
    19 Dec 2011, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    I'm beginning to think that we should be invested in shipping containers instead of battery companies. No one knows who's battery system is going to win out in the end, but the container companies are able to sell to all of them! :-)
    19 Dec 2011, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Lab Tech ... I pass by a couple of storage yards of shipping containers in my regular travel. I only know the actual size of one of them and it's 40 acres stacked 5 high and tightly spaced. The others are just as jammed. If you want you can buy one for less than $1 a pound, about $6k for a 40 ft. So I'd guess you could really get one for about $4k and maybe less. Not much profit in them right now.
    19 Dec 2011, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Ah, well. Guess I'll keep my day job.
    20 Dec 2011, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    HTL ... looks like CPST news leaked on Friday ...

     

    Capstone Turbine Corporation Receives Orders for 4.2 Megawatts From Multiple Oil & Gas Companies for Use in Marcellus Shale; Distributor E-Finity Opens West Virginia Office to Meet Demand

     

    http://yhoo.it/sTd2iw

     

    The microturbines will be installed in early 2012 and used in prime power and combined heat and power (CHP) applications. In the CHP applications, the microturbines' exhaust heat will be used for building and onsite fuel-gas heating.

     

    We have tremendous opportunities to sell Capstone microturbines to oil & gas customers in the Mid-Atlantic region due to the continued expansion of the Marcellus Shale," said Jeff Beiter, E-Finity Managing Partner.

     

    ======================...
    PJM country????
    http://bit.ly/uXaTs2

     

    Wonder if Rosewater is watching or involved with what's happening here ...
    19 Dec 2011, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Microturbines used at gas and oil wells strike me as a different market then PowerCubes would address.

     

    The MTs supply electrical power when either waste gas is cheaper then local electricity or when there are no power lines at the site and the cost to run them is not competitive with MT generation.
    Neither of these uses are closely related to the power quality regulation or energy regeneration that the PC would be ideal for.

     

    IMO, of course.
    19 Dec 2011, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    WTB: News has leaked before. But I don't believe that was related to the late trading pop Friday.

     

    I believe it was window dressing and posted that on another board and also stated it would drop back.

     

    Why? Well there's a lot of data collection that I'm doing that suggests that CPST should've been going or staying down just above the $1 area for now.

     

    More importantly, I think, is most of the ... "minor good news"(?) recently has been nothing more than a selling opportunity - likely for the folks that bought at the recent lows ($0.85-$0.86) and nothing has been able to sustain price appreciation since.

     

    Lot's of reasons. The one I think is most significant is concerns about cash burn and an expected raise in the next quarter or two.

     

    Adding to that is the way management has started to "spin". They emphasized $1.8M cash used in the last Q report but if you go down to the details it was (apparently) $7M+.

     

    This goes beyond the expected "profit is just around the corner" stuff, which we (I guess most investors) accepted as honest belief and typical (unexpected?) issues beyond their control prevented it.

     

    Going into deliberate misleading, IMO, removes my long-held belief in the new management team that was installed back in ... ~'07(?) that had been very forthright and made laudable progress on many fronts.

     

    My take now is that they may have started to fall into "typical" corporate behavior to support share price, when it's not warranted, and maybe to convince the board they should get their bonuses again even though they'll (apparently) miss the goals just like last time when they got a portion of the bonus.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2011, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • matthewchic
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Is anyone else seeing info that says after market hours trading for Axion went off at .63? I see it on Morningstar. Can anyone see the after hours volume and price on their consoles?
    19 Dec 2011, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Mattherchic,

     

    I see that a lot on morningstar. It is not trading for that though. I believe the market makers remove their bids and that shows up, but perhaps HTL has more insight on why morningstars after-hours show up like that.
    19 Dec 2011, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    I can't see anything - I took my snapshot when the last shown was 16:10:10, 38K @ $0.293.

     

    I *suspect* some kind of market-maker bookkeeping or positioning entry. I've never looked at Morningstar, but on CPST I often see 3 or 4 trades *very* late (around midnight) that have pricing of $0.0001. On ADVFN, these show as "form t", which is what most after-hours also show, which means (according to the help desk - but I'm suspicious that they may not be entirely accurate) these are the ending entries in trades that were dribbled out during an earlier time. E.g. if someone was selling 100K, maybe they sell 10K at a shot and when the last is done the trade(s) are logged. Probably as the total quantity.

     

    That's all I know that might fit. And I'm not sure any of it relates.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I don't follow capstone but i have lived through the hell of mismanagement, lying, and misinformation that unscrupulous management can muster. It is never a good thing for the stock price. If you truly feel this is happening protect yourself. No one else will do it for you.
    19 Dec 2011, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    I got out at $1.23. Not for that reason, but I recognized it was making a move down again. Since then been waiting to see what develops. I'll get some at least for a trade, but now I'm "all ears" because of management's recent seeming turn towards "The Dark Side".

     

    I may be misreading it, but caution is warranted for me.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Looks like candlestick Park could use a PowerCube or two (the game is delayed). Too bad I was looking forward to Maya's Big Ben and the Steelers get crushed by another Harbaugh. I am a Big Ravens fan Maya, hence the animosity, especially since we lost yesterday. :-) (Don't worry, I recognize the Steelers greatness. When you have a QB like Ben get his leg nearly twisted off and then hobble back out onto the field to finish the game, you can't help but to respect them....I just don't like them.)
    19 Dec 2011, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I was just logging on to "CALL IN THE POWER CUBES" blackout at the ball game .

     

    P.S. I was out today and you guys let AXPW go to pot!
    19 Dec 2011, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    We were just letting the tax-loss selling wind down.

     

    Today we stabilize and start the long, slow grind back up ... until folks recognize that the train powered by a PbC-locomotive is leaving the station without them.

     

    Acceleration will be rapid then! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2011, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    The more I look at the last few weeks the more I'm convinced that we were seeing the final clean up work from a fund manager that wants to go skiing for the last week of December and the first week of January.

     

    I've never bought into the tax loss selling theory because anybody who follows Axion should be more than a little concerned about their ability to effect a covering purchase 30 days out. Ultimately there's no way to ever know, but I'm willing to bet a nickel that the year-end holdings report from Special Situations shows a zero Axion balance.
    20 Dec 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    When the reports come out, I suspect you'll see total volumes in excess of what SS could provide?

     

    That might support the tax-loss selling I think some of action suggests.

     

    So far this month, 6.16M. November 5.35M. Divided by two would be ~5.5M.

     

    And there were patterns *suggesting* SS was done earlier than last week.

     

    But your "skiing" theory would also hold water (albeit, frozen). :-))

     

    But we'll not know for sure, of course.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    I have the feeling ( no facts) that a couple of large holders from the last financing round might have ditched some shares. But when you look at the size of the trades that HTL has posted it seems like the same size lots that SS was selling.
    Hard to put a finger on it. I just keep asking "Who's buying?"

     

    Bet you find employees of BMW, NS, Envision Solar, ect. And I'm not talking about lunch pail Joe. I'm talking about those higher level employees that could buy 500,000 shares over a few months time.

     

    I really can't imagine testing this product and not saying :HMMM, I need to get me some of those"
    20 Dec 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't underestimate the amount of "strong hands" becoming "weak hands" to becoming "strong hands" again during this past quarter as we plummeted from one new low to the next. I am sure any additional volume beyond what special sits could account for is the retail investor that still tends to trade on emotion without a full understanding of the company.

     

    It has been a wild emotional quarter and things can still be quite scary for this micro-cap if someone traded just on John's articles or even this concentrator without having a conviction of their own for the company. I would bet, buying and selling and buying again retailers could account for more volume than we think.

     

    The positive aspect of this is that Special Sits essentially shook the tree for those of us with conviction and many here bought more and more on the cheap, even cheaper than if it was just Special Sits.
    20 Dec 2011, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    There are only a few reasons to care about the price going down.
    1. You want to buy more. (greed)
    2. You already bought too much and paid more. (angst)
    3. You need to sell and raise money for something else. (panic)
    4. You have no conviction about the company.
    5. Company has a reduced potential to raise money.

     

    The first 4 are physiological problems. (OK, with #3 sometimes things happen, but when dealing with a small company, never bet the farm)

     

    #5 is not occurring until well into 2012.
    19 Dec 2011, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    "#5 is not occurring until well into 2012. "

     

    I can not agree with your statement. The timeline might be true. It might not. The company has exactly the same potential to raise money as it had last month. It has more potential to raise money than last year. The new potential markets, the extreme size of some of the markets, and the fact that the PbC seems to be coming in at a low retail price, increases the potential to raise money early into 2012, not late.
    But things do happen on their own time in their own way.
    19 Dec 2011, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    At some point a company that desperately needs cash is handicapped by that need. I think what JohnM121 was suggesting is that a desperate need dynamic won't kick in with force until we're well into 2012.
    20 Dec 2011, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    A123 Systems (Nasdaq:AONE), a developer and manufacturer of advanced Nanophosphate lithium ion batteries and systems, today announced that it will supply a Grid Battery System (GBS) to Maui Electric Company (MECO), a utility serving residents and businesses on the islands of Maui, Lanai and Molokai in Hawaii. To be installed at MECO's Wailea Substation on Maui, the advanced energy storage system will be designed to deliver one-megawatt (1MW) of power for a full hour to reduce the peak energy load on one of the substation's transformers, which is expected to increase grid stability and improve power quality to help MECO meet the objectives of the Maui Smart Grid Project.
    "A123's advanced energy storage system has demonstrated the ability to shift peak energy loads when demand is high to provide the consistent delivery of quality power, which is an extremely valuable service that supports MECO's ongoing effort to increase the reliability of the grid and maximize the generation resources we have in place," said Ed Reinhardt, Maui Electric president. "The Maui Smart Grid Project will enable us to evaluate new technologies for enhancing our operations, and we look forward to the successful demonstration of A123's versatile energy storage solution in not only meeting our peak load shifting requirements, but also performing a number of additional valuable services."
    Led by MECO and the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute, the Maui Smart Grid Project is designed to help MECO demonstrate and evaluate new technologies for operating the electric grid more efficiently. The project also aims to help residents better manage and reduce energy consumption during periods of high demand. Specific objectives include reducing distribution circuit peak load, minimizing emissions, enabling greater utilization of renewable energy sources and improving power quality and grid stability. A123's GBS storage systems are designed to provide a complete, turnkey solution to help MECO meet these objectives by providing a number of services in addition to peak-load shifting, including regulating voltage fluctuation, reactive power (VAR) support and relieving wind curtailment.
    "The Maui Smart Grid Project is an excellent opportunity for A123 to showcase the flexibility of our dynamic GBS product, and we look forward to working with MECO to illustrate the value of our technology within the framework of the next-generation electric grid," said Robert Johnson, vice president of the Energy Solutions Group at A123. "We believe that our energy storage system will help MECO meet the ambitions objectives of the Maui Smart Grid Project and further demonstrate the commercial benefits of our solutions."
    About A123 Systems
    20 Dec 2011, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    It looks like the grid is the first good market for the PC...and AONE is being very aggressive in all markets too.
    20 Dec 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    Most of the grid-projects announced to date are for "frequency regulation" or "short-duration renewables integration." This new project is an example of "transmission and distribution upgrade deferral."

     

    The utility has a weak substation that's a bottleneck for about an hour a day. By putting the battery pack in to help carry the load for that one hour, the utility can put off a much larger and more expensive substation upgrade for anywhere from two to five years. When it finally decides to do the upgrade it will be able to move the battery somewhere else.
    20 Dec 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Why Hawaii is not using geothermal power is beyond me?

     

    Volcano's - check.

     

    Actually sat on a flight between HNL and Kona a few years back that was doing research on it. Told me that the biggest challenge for geothermal was environmentalists.

     

    Has anyone ever been to Iceland?
    20 Dec 2011, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Looks like A123 has been lining up a few of these tests for awhile so they could announce them one after the other before the end of the year. Probably trying to prevent the same end of the year selling that is killing Axion right now. Interesting to note, that once again it says that A123 will "supply" the GBS for the test...not sell. Just like the press release from WTB above, there is no mention of being paid for the system.
    20 Dec 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    I have to believe that the word "supply" in this case is synonymous with a commercial supplier of products. In other words they will be paid for their product. This isn't a demonstration project. Its a commercial project.
    20 Dec 2011, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I noticed that LT, I never really viewed A123 as that strong of a competitor but I give them credit, they are getting their product out into the market however losing a lot of money in the meantime. I am sure you are right on lining the announcements up was planned.

     

    Can the PbC or Power cube do the job in this application in Hawaii?
    20 Dec 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    A123 is battling tremendous headwinds in the automotive space and the shift to grid-based storage has been forced on them because the entire EV sector is about to turn turtle. They're doing a good job of getting out in front of things from a PR perspective, but this is a major change in their business model.

     

    The PowerCube will be very competitive in grid-scale applications. The only real disadvantage is that it will take a couple containers of PbC batteries to do the same work as a single container of lithium-ion batteries. The PbC will also save the owner at least 50% on his all-in capital cost for the same life-cycle performance.
    20 Dec 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    You may be right, but I'm still not completely convinced. Whenever ALTI sold one of these systems the first thing in the press release was how much they were able to sell the system for, so that the stock holders would know how much it was effecting the company's sales for the year. Maybe A123 is big enough that they don't have to worry about that, or maybe they don't want to admit they are selling the system at a loss, but whenever a company doesn't use the word "sale" in their press release I am a little skeptical.
    20 Dec 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    LabT, I tend to agree with your assessment.

     

    I believe it worth noting also that the "will supply" announcement did not include a date/timeline. The earlier announcement regarding the 2MW system indicated installation in mid-2012, so these grid power storage systems are apparently development stage pro-type products.
    20 Dec 2011, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    QUOTE FROM BERNSTEIN & RICARDO

     

    Yesterday Bernstein and Ricardo released the transcript of a conference call presentation on their Black Book that I wrote about recently. There isn't enough new material for a story, but the following answer to a question really crystalized things for me and I wanted to share it.

     

    "Clearly, stop-start systems are very successful. But we think that we haven't seen the end of it yet - we are only at the beginning. And what you see at the moment is that's pretty much every new product launch comes with a stop-start system, while older models still lack this technology. So if you extrapolate that to 2015, virtually 100% of the cars sold in Europe will have stop starts. There is a lot of growth potential still left in that technology.

     

    One of the reasons why it is so successful is because it is a very, very low-hanging fruit. Simon previously talked about this hierarchy of need as to when OEMs adopt which technology. From experience of having worked at an OEM, technology costs are a key decision factor.

     

    Stop-start just costs about €10 to €15 per 1 gram CO2 reduction. You won't get that with much else."
    20 Dec 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    As far as cash in the door would a potential NS deal be signed with an upfront billing aspect? Working for a .com company we are very lucky in the fact that we are allowed to invoice a customer upfront for a service we will eventually render. This allows us a lot more freedom with our cash.
    20 Dec 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    Contracts for batteries that will go into prototype devices like the NS 999 and the planned road locomotive are typically carefully negotiated to match the needs of both parties. If cash is a concern for Axion, I'm sure management will cover those details in the negotiation. Selling hardware to a company that has $28 billion in assets and $242 million in cash is not exactly a high risk credit.
    20 Dec 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    What's showing on Level II this morning??
    20 Dec 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    ATM 90.8K bid $0.29, 20K ask $0.30.

     

    BTIG is missing from the sell side until $0.53 and on the buy side until $0.04 (that's no typo!).

     

    PUMA on the sell side 5K @ $0.33, 5K on the buy side $0.20.

     

    Other misc. 5K at various prices on both sides.

     

    The low for today so far, $0.28 was only 346 shares.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2011, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'll check in a few, John. Carpet installers just arrived. (At first, they said they didn't have enought carpet! But the guest and MBR room were inverted. There's more frustartion that occurred yesterday. I won't bore this column with my frustrations.)
    20 Dec 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    I find it a welcome relief to hear somebody complain about something other than the stock price. It's beginning to look like our fund manager successfully cleared his decks for a two week ski vacation. Since the 22nd is the winter solstice and the shortest day of the year, I'm willing to bet that we'll be seeing more and more sun with each day that passes till the middle of June. I just did my bit for the thousand share at the market flash mob and it feels like we're all in for a very Happy New Year, particularly you with a completed refurbishing.
    20 Dec 2011, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yesterday, there was a Form T buy at 16:10:10 for 38,000 shares at $0.293.

     

    Today, little action so far, but...

     

    I'm seeing a 50,500 bid via VERT ( Vertical Trading Group) put in at 10:38:51 for $0.29.

     

    At 09:50:21, a 20,000 bid at $0.29 via NITE (Knight Capital Americas).

     

    At 09:30:04 via ETMM (E*Trade Capital Markets) there is a bid of 11,200 at $0.28.

     

    At 09:30:04 vua UBSS (UBS Securities) a 128,000 bid at $0.27.

     

    UBSS is playing the other side with an ask at $0.34 for 60,000 shares. This is the largest ask block.

     

    There are several other smaller ones, with the next largest of 20,000.

     

    Average bid size is in Level 2 is 15,784. Average ask is 7,075.
    20 Dec 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Mini-bump in ACPW today, interesting
    20 Dec 2011, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    http://tinyurl.com/7nd...
    "Active Power Inc. (ACPW): ACPW manufactures flywheel-based uninterruptible power supply systems to generate short-term backup electricity. On Friday, Kinderhook Partners, a corporate insider by virtue of their 10% plus ownership in the company, reported that they purchased 376,616 shares for $0.2 million, ending the week with 8.8 million or 11.0% of the outstanding shares of ACPW. This is in addition to the 302,733 shares that they purchased in late November and early December, so that overall Kinderhook has purchased 0.68 million shares in the last four weeks. For Lee, NJ-based Kinderhook Partners is a venture capital and private equity firm specializing in small public companies such as ACPW, and also in private companies. They invest across a wide range of industries, and typically make investments between $5 and $20 million. ACPW shares have been very week this year, falling almost three-quarters YTD and trading at its lows currently on account of unimpressive operating results during the last few quarters, so the insider buys by institutional insider Kinderhook Capital could be interpreted as an indication that shares are likely near a bottom here."
    20 Dec 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Also, currently on the board is 40,500 bidding $0.29, and the ask is 10,000 at $0.31.

     

    The above bid came via VERT at 11:09:49.
    20 Dec 2011, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    RATS! (AXPW) just went at $0.28 for 5K.

     

    Bid/ask $0.28 11K/$0.31 5K *presented*.

     

    But had some nicer ones at $0.29, 10K/40.5K and $0.30 20K earlier.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2011, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    These things are always hard to guess with precision. When things were quiet early it looked like our willing seller was all set for his Christmas vacation. Now it's beginning to look like he may still have a little tidying up to do after the party.
    20 Dec 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I had drawn the exact same conclusion.

     

    Just want to point out that at the aptly named Candlestick Park, where my Steelers got crushed by the 49ers last night, there were two power outages totaling 36 minutes, delaying the game.

     

    Quite impressive seeing one transformer blow up in slow mo, sending an eerie green-blue color outward, then a flame upwards maybe 20 feet or so.
    20 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I am so sorry for your loss last night Maya....not.

     

    I do wonder how many magewatts of power it would have taken to keep the lights going for the two 20 minute black-outs until they got the generators turned on.

     

    It seems huge stadiums might have to start thinking about back-up power like that for safety and the local utility could then of course borrow that power to smooth the grid.

     

    Rosewater, call Candlestick Park.
    20 Dec 2011, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Although we've hit a low of .27 most of the selling has revolved around the .30 mark. If you forget the early price history (sorry John) and look at that long period in the .50's after the $26M PIPE at .57 the carnage hasn't been that bad - 54%.

     

    Look at the sector losses like busted flat in Reno XIDE and even sector star ENS's -40% and it is just not that bad given the times. Sucks to be sure, but not the end of the world when you remember JP just deleted a ton of companies from his quarterly roundup in the battery space. In comparison to death like HEV and BCON it is a sunny, balmy day holding Axion stock.

     

    While the AGM makers are hoping Axion will just go away, I am also sure they are also mulling what competitive advantage they would have versus their kindred if they had rights to the PBC for autos. They have to be aware of the poor stop start life and they are probably also looking over their shoulders at the rise of all the lithium ion flavors. Wouldn't you want another club in the bag given the battery industry in toto, and wouldn't you love to be the only one with that advantage?
    20 Dec 2011, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    So the real question should be "Aside from that Mrs. Lincoln how did you like the play?"
    20 Dec 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    LOL.
    20 Dec 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Hilarious!
    20 Dec 2011, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    :) From another perspective, yahoo finance is presently showing AXPW up $0.01 (3.45%) on the day. In terms of relative price performance today, AXPW is rubbing elbows with or surpassing some pretty well known characters: F - 2.5%, ETN - 3.44%, HON - 3.4%, LOW - 3.22%, INTC - 2.94%, DD - 3.95%.
    20 Dec 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Good summary, John! ;<D
    20 Dec 2011, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (CPST); +4.35%. But it *sure* looks like short-covering to me - just pecking the ask, very small trades, mostly, very low volume - sometimes 3 minutes with zero volume.

     

    There was a "take down" at 10:28 that took it from $1.10 to $1.08 on 62.5K when volume into and out of that period was almost non-existent.

     

    Then just marching, every hour or so, up one penny in the trading range.

     

    Now doing $1.12-$1.13.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2011, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    For me its sort of like a severe beating is so much better than being beaten to death. To relieve my frustration I took it out on OMYOMY on brand X last night with a message thread that ended in Adios MF.
    20 Dec 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JP: Did I send you that joke? Or, did you send that one to me. It's a great line.
    20 Dec 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    It's an old Dave Lehrer line - but still funny.
    20 Dec 2011, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    An Amish ramble,, I remember talking to an old friend that was leading the crusade to depose an ancient trade school president , and replace him with a more vibrant version. He was being hammered for it in the local rag.
    We spoke of how change does not come without angst,,real change often is painful.
    The same often happens in the stock universe,,I never have gone for a good ride without some serious pain along the way,, those horsies do try their best to shake the loose hands off.
    As history would have it,, they deposed the old president (A political favor from gov Shapp in the 70's)..and turned a rusty institution into a vibrant one.
    20 Dec 2011, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I like the ramble, Amish. Well said.
    20 Dec 2011, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I've been trying to find JP's remark about the shelf registration as to when it expires. Could you post that date again John? Could you also tell me if it does expire before the end of Q2 2012 would that allow Axion to do another PIPE? I know no one wants another down round but Axion needs money to move forward and a PIPE might have the potential to raise more than the shelf.

     

    Let me also add that I don't know Jack about public financing and I'm just looking for as many financing avenues as possible as the new year unfolds. I know TG has been working on it since April 2011 so he will undoubtedly choose the best course of action, so my question is just for informational purposes.
    21 Dec 2011, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    Shelf registrations don't expire, Instead they incorporate new SEC filings into the registration statement by reference so it's perpetually current. I'm not sure where the March 2012 mythology came from, but I suspect it was somebody's effort to reconcile the requirements of SEC Rule 415 with Form S-3. They got it wrong but some myths are hard to debunk once they establish themselves.

     

    PIPEs and registration statements don't mix because SEC rules prohibit general solicitation in connection with a PIPE and an effective registration statement is by definition a general solicitation.

     

    The interplay between Form S-3, Rule 415 and the requirements of investors is one of the most complex quagmires in the field of securities law and trying to figure out in advance what might be negotiated is impossible. Axion has the ability to do what it needs to do. The interplay between all the applicable rules may impact valuation. Beyond that, trying to figure out how a deal might be structured is like trying to predict next February's weather.
    21 Dec 2011, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    JP> "Axion has the ability to do what it needs to do." Thanks and good enough for me.
    21 Dec 2011, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): EOD wrap for some metrics I watch 12/20/2011.

     

    Only 30 trades for the day, only 6 >= 10K, but we did have "buys" of 25K, 40.5K and 10K at $0.30 for the first and $0.29 for the latter two. "Sells" included 17K and 13.5K at $0.30 while "unknowns" had one 20K at $0.30. All other "sells" were less than 10K, an encouraging sign.

     

    The low was $0.28, a 380 and 5K share trade. 18 of the thirty trades were at $0.30 and one (5K) at $0.31. The $0.30 trades were evenly split between buys and sells.

     

    Buy, sell, unknown 93,007, 71,580 and 20,000 respectively. Buy:sell ratio is 1.299:1 and buy:(sell+unknown) is 1.015:1. But it's a low volume day, so only one handspring is warranted.

     

    OTOH, look at the short trend and, specifically, the short sales the last three days. JP's "skiing" scenario or his thought that the last of the big sellers cleaning out may be in play. My thoughts about tax-loss selling might also hold.

     

    If those tax-loss sellers are thinking as I am, that AXPW is worth owning and that they can re-enter in late January without running afoul of the wash-rule, we might see some buying pressure in late January. We'll have to keep that in mind.

     

    The market-maker(s) were obviously long in their portfolio(s) either from purchases or shares held by customers of the broker that owns them being put up for sale.

     

    I think watching for another turn up in short-sales percentage, if accompanied by volume and continued improvement in the buy:sell ratio, might be a sure sign that the selling pressure from larger sellers may be over.

     

    1201 TotVol 0304750, Sht 113950 37.39%
    1202 TotVol 0114099, Sht 040049 35.10%
    1205 TotVol 0790577, Sht 134087 16.96%
    1206 TotVol 0923239, Sht 221009 23.94%
    1207 TotVol 1074969, Sht 452620 42.11%
    1208 TotVol 0140689, Sht 043843 31.16%
    1209 TotVol 0193569, Sht 128829 66.55%
    1212 TotVol 0364751, Sht 160051 43.88%
    1213 TotVol 0164344, Sht 082245 50.04%
    1214 TotVol 0411401, Sht 084400 20.52%
    1215 TotVol 0324683, Sht 113909 35.08%
    1216 TotVol 0604796, Sht 082990 13.72%
    1219 TotVol 0626525, Sht 060821 09.71%
    1220 TotVol 0171087, Sht 011207 06.55%

     

    HardToLove
    21 Dec 2011, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Wow HTL,

     

    You really put a lot of effort into analyzing these trades. I find nothing in the data that suggest anything, other than the fact that buyers and sellers appear to exist on a large enough scale at $.30 that deals are getting done. However I like the fact that major amounts of stock were not offered for sale even at $.30

     

    Hope your right that sellers are running out of stock.
    21 Dec 2011, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Interesting speculation, HTL, about upward price pressure in late January following tax loss selling recently. Anyone selling now with the wash rule in mind is apparently discounting prospects of any positive news shortly after year-end. IMO, one or two PowerCube sales announcements in January are quite possible.
    21 Dec 2011, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I agree D-inv. Anyone selling now to make a few bucks on their taxes with the mind to get back in, in one month is playing Russian-roulet with 5 bullets in the revolver. You just can't do that with micro-caps you like, if you don't like the stock that is a different story.
    21 Dec 2011, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Tax loss selling could have been going on all through December and maybe even earlier. Some folks probably take a moment over the Thanksgiving holiday to see where they stand and prepare a plan.

     

    The stock has been on a steady decline since March ... so anyone who bought since then has an "opportunity" and make take it even if they believe in the story long term.

     

    Really, if you're gonna do it, better to sell early ahead of the wave of selling if that's what you expect ... you get to buy back more shares than you owned, and a tax break as well ... what's not to love if you're feeling lucky?

     

    This might include folks that have both a core and a trading position. Those folks might actually want to be ready to buy back in right at the end of this year.
    21 Dec 2011, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: Quite right. But if you can get a nice benefit on your taxes right now and feel that longer-term the pps will move well above $1, you likely still come out profitable if you get the tax benefit now, buy back iin at ... $0.50-$0.60(?) and then it moves up to well over a $1.

     

    What's not to like? Paying 20 cents more? If you're in a 30%+ tax bracket, you may save more than that.

     

    Pure speculation, of course.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Dec 2011, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Great analytics, HTL!

     

    I'm going to be watching UBS Securities today (UBSS), as yesterday they had sizeable orders on both sides.

     

    What I liked seeing yesterday was the lower volume, but with some higher block orders. We need a few "yawn" days for consolidation.

     

    Hopefully, we're seeing a "distributive" bottom now.
    21 Dec 2011, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Hej Maya. My mother just bought 20K at 0,30 USD.Trust it might help you in your studies of what is going on.
    21 Dec 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Poul: Thanks. My nephew just texted me that he added 1500 shares this morning.
    21 Dec 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    I am adding right now on most days when it is $.30-. Keep cycling program buys under $.30 in there. Now I'm averaging toward an enhanced core goal which I might not reach until March.

     

    Its hypnotic.
    21 Dec 2011, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    maya...interesting phenomena...my brother finally bought in at .38...complained to me about the "discourse" on the "other" board and the sub .30 pps...I forwarded him yours and jakurtz articles...with JP's SS analysis...and he doubled down...10,000 shares.

     

    I know John suspects a small investor base from his blog, but it appears to be growing beyond the current fellow bloggers...

     

    just a thought...
    23 Dec 2011, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mag: Have to wonder how many of us have influenced peripheral investors to buy some Axion. I figure between my friends, my family, and myself, all combined, threaten 400,000 shrares.

     

    That figure does not include Seeking Alpha pals.

     

    And I know of several others who are contemplating starting a position. And others thinking about adding.

     

    Lucky them! At these prices.
    23 Dec 2011, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    I don't suspect a small stockholder base at all. I think there's a very large base of stockholders who each own relatively small positions. In late 2009 Axion sold 45 million shares to about 50 people. Over the last 18 months, the bulk of those shares have been resold in the market where they've been purchased by a couple thousand people.
    23 Dec 2011, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Way to jump (again) on that point, John. The investor base of Axion Power is broadening, perhaps spectacularly.
    24 Dec 2011, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    That's the way distributive transactions work. A private placement like Axion did in 2009 puts 45 million shares into the hands of 45 investors who have an average of a million shares each. When those investors sell, the average buyer picks up something closer to 10,000 shares. By the time the redistribution has finished, you have a base of 4,500 holders even though you started from a base of 45.

     

    During the distribution process, every sell decision is a major upset to the market because the number of shares involved is so high. Once the process is complete, individual sell decisions are just normal market activity unless there's a bad event that causes a bunch of holders to run for the exit at the same time.
    24 Dec 2011, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yawn day in progress. Only sizeable ask is UBSS for 60,000 @ $0.34. They are again playing the other side of the tape with an 8000 share bid at $0.29.

     

    UBSS's bid is two cents higher than yesterday, and hugely smaller in size (I like putting "hugely smaller" together).
    21 Dec 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I just went back to read some articles from 2008 on the energy storage sector and, of course, found an article by JP with Maya in it bemoaning his dogging of Ener1, it is comical.

     

    Fast forward through the financial crisis and three years later all I can say is EVERYONE lost money in the Energy storage sector the past 3 years. I think Maxwell is the only one with a higher market cap now.

     

    I believe the economic malaise made everyone arrive a bit early to the party. We all came to dance but the music hasn't played, the drinks have not been served and our partners have been stuck in traffic.

     

    2012 should get this party started.
    21 Dec 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jakurtz: I am a convert, thanks to JP. He and I were definitely butting heads way back (I'm not real proud of that). Thing is, I shagged a few dimes owning Ener1, back when John was quoting things like a $25,000 car wrapped around a $75,000 battery. Though JP was a little high on the $75,000 part, but he wasn't wrong with today's news that FocalPoint Analytics gave us a few Concentrators ago about how the Ford Focus (?) costs twice as much with EV technology, than the tried and true internal combustion engine.

     

    I agree. 2012 will provide us with an interesting year. We only need three things to happen: Axion gets orders. Axion raises cash. And Axion begins ramping production.
    21 Dec 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I am a convert too, Maya. I think it is interesting how a lot of people know energy storage is going to be an enormous market but it takes a while getting acquainted with all the different technologies before figuring out how to play that market. I think we definitely have a winner here.

     

    The point I drew from the article from 3 years ago was that while we now sulk about Axion's seeming delays into this market there were a ton of companies vying for a seat at the table and none have actually sat down to eat, Axion in this case is not an exception. Additionally, while this quarter has really made Axion's chart look deplorable, before Nov. they had actually loss less market cap than most of the other pure play storage companies over the past three years and many were a lot bigger than Axion. (others have already noted the chart correlation through this quarter with others in the sector).

     

    My summary: there is nothing out of the ordinary with Axion's performance over the past three years, most companies have had a similar experience and many much, much worse.
    21 Dec 2011, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    GREAT LINK FROM THE BRAND X BOARD

     

    In April of this year Sandia published an "Energy Storage Systems Cost Update" report that calculated the total cost of ownership of several grid-scale storage technologies in four typical grid scale applications. The bottom line conclusion was that excluding CAES and pumped hydro for long term storage, "Lead-acid batteries with carbon enhanced electrodes" had the lowest total cost of ownership in all categories.

     

    http://bit.ly/uW0Icz

     

    Hat tip IINDelco. I sure wish he'd come visit here from time to time.
    21 Dec 2011, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    That is a hell of a find. He's a knowledgeable and worthwhile contributor and its unfortunate we do not have his insights in our concentrators.
    21 Dec 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Yes, saw that article yesterday. What I found interesting was that pumped hydro, for a new installation, cost more than PbC batteries when you averaged it out over only 10 years. Obviously it's cheaper if you already have a big pool of water somewhere, or can make one and use it for more than 10 years, but as I said to IINDelco, that's kind of like hydroelectric, it's a great source of green energy if you can find a river that someone will let you put one on.
    21 Dec 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    It really screws up the economics if you need to build a mountain valley.
    21 Dec 2011, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    What...shouldn't be a problem? They are tearing the tops off mountains all the time around here. I think they call it coal mining in WV. They must have made a few valleys by now that could be used.
    21 Dec 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Here's probably a stupid question but with the growth of wave energy wouldn't there be a way ot capture energy as we flow water to people's homes, ala micro-hydro? I thought about the sewage system on the backside but it would probably clog up too much to be worth it.
    21 Dec 2011, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Why will no one try out my idea of an A-bomb created deep cavity hydro storage system? So the water gets radioactive. Just don't drink it ;-)
    21 Dec 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    It takes a lot of head pressure and water volume to efficiently generate electricity.
    21 Dec 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Yes, and don't try and do it during halftime of the Superbowl! Many cities' water pressures go down when everyone runs to use the bathroom.
    21 Dec 2011, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Well, with the pps of (AXPW) right now, we've got plenty of "head pressure"! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    21 Dec 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    CPST makes another sale in the Oilfield ... this time in:

     

    "power to central processing facilities and metering stations at remote well sites in the Eagle Ford shale play. The microturbines, fueled by pipeline quality gas, will produce electricity to provide all power to the onsite equipment, including heaters, pump motors, circulation pumps and distribution panels."

     

    http://yhoo.it/veO943

     

    Second US contract announcement in a week ... wonder if there's momentum building here for their solution ...
    21 Dec 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    A former partner's daughter is a steering geologist for one of the big Eagle Ford operators and the dynamic in South Texas right now is the darned wells are making way more gas than the gathering systems can handle. They're also making bite enough volumes of condensate that the gas values are trivial in comparison. It's my understanding that a lot of operators are flaring gas because they have to produce the condensate but don't have adequate pipeline facilities for the gas. That sets up a perfect dynamic for a company like Capston that lets them turn waste gas into very cheap electricity.
    21 Dec 2011, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    I've always been curious as to how much refining of the gas has to be done to allow it to be used in a Capstone generator? Or is that just part of the normal distillation happening at the well to separate it from the oil?
    21 Dec 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    Natural gas is usually pretty pure and doesn't normally take much in the way of processing unless it contains Hydrogen Sulfide or a large amount of condensate. If you have sour gas it needs to pass through a water bath to strip out the H2S. Separating out the condensate isn't rocket science either. Once you've stripped out the H2S and condensate, it's pretty much ready for the gathering and distribution system and could be burned in a turbine with no problems at all.
    21 Dec 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    "Shale oil boom sends waste gas burn-off soaring"

     

    http://reut.rs/tljvRa

     

    July 25, 2011. Especially in North Dakota and Texas where the infrastructure hasn't caught up ... yet.
    21 Dec 2011, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    And CPST can run with a high H2S content. IIRC, ~37% (or was it 17%)?

     

    But don't quote me. Anyway, a lot of places can run right off the flare with little or no cleaning need.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Dec 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Too bad you can't put electricity in a tanker truck and ship it 'cross country :-)

     

    Then again, if you built a hybrid tanker truck that burned CNG for its microturbine generator, it could make sense for moving the gas liquids at lower cost. Especially if the NG was "free" at the well end of the journey.
    21 Dec 2011, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Google buys tons of lead acid batteries and bought quite a few from CRTP. They would be a good target for Axion.
    21 Dec 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Wow, even I'm seeing an ask of $.285 on Fidelity. And I thougth the 5k I just got a .29 was a steal...
    21 Dec 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    I sold half of my CRTP yesterday and thinking of buying more AXPW with the cash from it.

     

    No earning release for couple of quarters...definitely bad....right?

     

    Anyone has this kind of experience? No earning release for quite a while?

     

    still hanging at 0.7 range........that is kind of amazing though....
    21 Dec 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    When CRTP terminated its US listing, it also terminated it's obligation to release information to the public. They may be considering a Hong Kong or other foreign listing, but I'd be very uncomfortable owning stock in a company that didn't provide detailed quarterly and annual financial information.
    21 Dec 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    .7 range since I sold at $4.40 is probably best it will ever do. Dumping it was only course of action available to you. Sell the rest of it and move on to bigger and better things. Buying more AXPW will depend on how much you want riding on a spec stock, but this is certainly at or near the bottom if Axion succeeds. I'm heavily invested in Axion and recently averaged down with buys at .37 and .34. I'm up to my eyeballs in AXPW stock since I'm all in on Axion. Not a wise decision but if successful (and I think there is a strong case they will be) the return will be spectacular.
    21 Dec 2011, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Even if they are not obliged to release information to the public, if they care about share holders, they have to do it, I guess. That is why I decided to sell. Do I sound too naive? I do not know...may be I am...

     

    Really really tough real world....
    21 Dec 2011, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    I would not hold onto the stock of any company that didn't provide full, accurate and timely information to stockholders.
    21 Dec 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    By the way, I have pretty high expectations for KNDI in 2012. Their business has been progressing very nice. Good exposure to media and relationship with State Grid..etc.

     

    Just like AXPW, they need to show sales ramp up......

     

    Golden cross recently and up about 6% so far today when my other holdings are all down a little bit.
    21 Dec 2011, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29445) | Send Message
     
    KNDI seems to be making all the right moves and I still think they have the most sensible EV plan going. I hope it works out very well for you.
    21 Dec 2011, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    Me too.

     

    Disclosure: long KNDI
    21 Dec 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We have all been waiting for Futurist's fine article! Please follow the link to read it.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Dec 2011, 03:51 PM Reply Like
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