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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 44: Beginning Jan. 9, 2012 160 comments
    Jan 9, 2012 4:30 PM

    PURCHASE ORDERS! That's plural, folks!

    Another Thomas Granville interview:

     

    Q: Can you give us a quick description of what the PowerCube™ is and how it works?

    Ans: The Axion PowerCube™ is a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) that leverages our patented PbC® battery technology. The PowerCube™ integrates the batteries, power electronics, safety systems and computer controls into a complete system module. The current “building block” is rated at 500 kW but can be scaled to a 20MW system. The system can also be configured into smaller building blocks for residential or community storage initiatives. Our PowerCube™ can be configured to participate in the utilities ancillary markets, such as the frequency regulation and energy markets. Capabilities include providing power quality, back-up power, power smoothing and load leveling.

    In the utilities ancillary markets, we have partnered with Viridity Energy, a curtailment service provider (CSP). As an example, Viridity Energy bids the PowerCube™ into the frequency regulation market at various times during the day. If our bid is accepted, Viridity receives a regulation signal (REGA) from PJM, the RTO in our area. That regulation signal is transmitted to the PowerCube™ and commands the BESS to either charge or discharge. The system is capable of responding to the signal in 250 milliseconds.


    Q: How does the PowerCube™, with PbC® Technology, participating in the regulation market benefit the RTO, utilities and end user?

    Ans: In October of this year, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved rule changes that reduced the minimum required amount of resources to 100 kW, from the previous minimum of 500 kW. This new minimum level for participation allows the PowerCube™ to participate in the utilities ancillary services. The regulation services correct for short-term changes in electricity usage that could affect the stability of the grid. It also helps PJM optimize the power generation and adjust the generation output to maintain the desired frequency of the grid. Previously, system operators have relied on slow responding generating resources to vary output to balance system frequency. Now,with assets like the PowerCube, those generators could be re-tasked to focus on load generation.

    Follow on Question: What is the response time of the PowerCube™ to the REGA signal and how does it benefit PJM.

    Ans: The PowerCube™ can respond to the REGA signal received from viridity in 250 ms. The roundtrip communication time between PJM, Viridity and the PowerCube™ is on the order of 3 seconds. Currently, utility assets (natural gas fired peakers) that are participating in the regulation market have 5 minutes to respond to the regulation signal. Fast responding assets like Axion’s PowerCube™ will benefit PJM by providing them with the ability to control the frequency of the grid in real time. It should be noted that the further the frequency drifts out of balance, the more difficult rebalancing becomes. The amount of power required to move back into balance increases geometrically, so it is incumbent that the provider respond quickly.



    Q: How does the PowerCube™ benefit renewable energy sources like Solar, Wind, Tidal, etc.?

    Ans: Incorporating renewable energy sources into the grid infrastructure is challenging. Energy from solar panels, wind turbines, etc. is derived from unregulated natural resources (e.g. the sun is blocked by passing clouds; the push of the wind is inconsistent in both force and direction, etc.). This intermittency makes it difficult for utilities to predict what their output will be, thus the importance of battery energy systems like the Axion PowerCube. The PowerCube™ is charged or discharged as needed to smooth out these natural irregularities, increasing the quality of renewable energy output and the value of renewable expansion.


    Q: The PowerCube qualified in the PJM market as a 100 kW resource. What is the benefit to PJM? Is the technology scalable to larger power ratings?

    Ans: PJM is able to re-task the generation assets that are currently being used for frequency regulation and optimize them for load generation. Fast responding technologies, like the PowerCube™ can be used to maintain the frequency of the grid in real time. The technology is scaleable in building blocks of either 500 kW or 1 MW.


    Q: There are many battery technologies available, what makes the PbC® technology better choice over Li-ion, Na-S, traditional lead acid, flow batteries, etc.?

    Ans: The PbC® battery represents the best value/performance fit for battery energy storage applications. It overcomes the significant performance limitations of lead–acid batteries (traditional and advanced) that include low cycle life and low charge acceptance, as well as lead-acids high module variation seen within battery strings. PbC® batteries are fully recyclable and a fraction of the cost of non-recyclable chemistries such as Li-ion. Both Li-ion and Na-S have significant safety issues, each with recent fire incidents garnering national attention. While Na-S batteries contain inexpensive materials, they are operated at extremely high temperatures and are especially unfit for mobile applications. In addition, they require hours to re-charge compared to our fast rate of charge – minutes or even seconds depending on the application.

     

    Q: Is the PowerCube™ a behind or in front of the meter resource and does it have any impact of the system design?

    Ans: Currently, the PowerCube™ is configured as a behind the meter resource. In essence this means that Axion acts as a virtual generator by curtailing load. When the PowerCube is commanded to take load from the grid it uses that power to charge its battery. When commanded to discharge, the battery is discharged into the plants load effectively reducing or curtailing its power consumption. The PowerCube can easily be configured as a behind or in front of the meter resource. The main impact is on system layout and interface with the power systems.


    Q: What other markets does the PowerCube bring value to?

    Ans: In addition to the portfolio of grid services, the PowerCube is capable of (frequency regulation, load leveling, power quality, backup power and renewable smoothing), it has uses in other markets that require dynamic power storage and utilization. Power back up for oil drilling platforms is one example. A modified version of the design is in the final stages of deployment in the hybrid locomotives market. We are preparing to release a smaller scale version of the technology for improving power quality in large residential homes and in community storage.


    Q: What type of battery management and/or remote monitoring is available?

    Ans: Axion utilizes our proprietary Battery Management System (BMS). The system allows us to monitor the health and State of Charge (SOC) of each battery. With this information, the computer algorithms can make intelligent decisions on how to operate the BESS. The PowerCube can be monitored and controlled remotely through a secure VPN tunnel.


    Q: Why is the charge acceptance and module variation of the PbC® technology important to the end user?

    Ans: The charge acceptance of a battery determines how fast it can be recharged and how many cycles it can participate in over a given period of time. The PbC® battery’s proprietary carbon negative electrode does not sulfate as does the lead negative electrode in a lead–acid battery. The result is a PbC® battery that can cycle much longer (3 to 4 times) and much faster (2 to 3 times). In grid applications, this translates into a significantly longer life product that bumps up against the utilities “length of life” requirements. Furthermore, in 2012 FERC and PJM will begin “pay-for-performance” market participation compensation. The exceptional response time of the PowerCube will provide an increased financial benefit to the Owner.

    In a series string of individual batteries, the overall string capacity is limited by the lowest performing battery. The module-to-module voltage variation of PbC® battery strings is ten times lower than that of lead–acid battery strings, which require frequent equalization charges and/or battery replacements to maintain system capacity over time. The end user of a PowerCube gets more capacity output with less variation, cost, and downtime – all contributing to improved ROI.

     

    Q: Does Axion provide the entire contents of the PowerCube™ or just the batteries?

    Ans:We currently provide the entire piece of equipment as a plug in module. In the future we will have others assemble this for us and in some circumstances we may just provide the batteries for an application.


    Q: Are there any installations currently using PowerCube™ technology?

    Ans:The PowerCube on our site is the first deployment of this technology. We have purchase orders for batteries and have other PowerCube proposals in various stages right now, but everyone wants to be able to see one and touch one that is actually operating in the marketplace. That's why we’re so excited to see our PowerCube in action.


    Q: Where does Axion go from here with this technology?

    Ans:As mentioned already, we have applications in numerous markets that alllend themselves to the unique characteristics of our product namely – increased cycle life; high state of charge acceptance; fast re-charge capability and low voltage variation in large string applications. The hybride vehicle stop/start market; hybrid trains; solar and wind storage; oil rigs; residential storage – are but a few of these market applications

     

    Thomas Granville has been Chairman of the Board of Axion Power International since 2003 and President and CEO since April of 2005. Prior to joining Axion, Mr. Granville served as managing or general partner for startups and emerging companies in the construction, commercial real estate, multi-family housing, and cable television industries. Mr. Granville also served as president of the National Elevator Industry Inc., a leading trade association representing elevator manufacturers and contractors.

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Comments (160)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from John Petersen:

     

    That much volume in the .41 to .43 range should be a pretty solid floor to build from, especially with a close in the middle of that narrow range.
    9 Jan 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree, John. I'm mildly surprised and am liking the sustained level of today's volume of 847,203. I would have expected a volume and price pullback.

     

    Also, after hours 85,100 ripped through, possibly just a settling up of today's action, as it was executed 19 seconds after the bell rang.
    9 Jan 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I think that was Quercus' 10% after hours. It doesn't effect market price as much when they do an orchestrated sale AH.
    9 Jan 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jakurtz: If so, and the 10% number is pretty much dead on, then this is something new I've yet to see...Quercus trading after hours.

     

    AXPW dropped $0.001 AH.
    9 Jan 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    It's been happening with a good degree of regularity on up days. I've noticed the pattern too and think jakurtz theory may be a sound one.
    9 Jan 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Yes, it is not the first time I have seen it. During Q3 2011 it happened several times.
    9 Jan 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I think you called the possible floor of .41 on Friday based on your TA. Pretty darn good seeing it was not expected by most.
    9 Jan 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Well, I can't let modesty prevent me from saying "Thanks" twice in a row.

     

    Thanks! :-))

     

    I'm mulling how much to chalk up to blind luck ATM.

     

    But from my "daily blurb" that will be found below, maybe I can cautiously take credit. Time will tell.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jan 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks all for taking the time to thumbs up the Axion Power Concentrators. I spent some time today looking into a few articles to see how many thumbs up are occurring. Very few. Which means likely the APCs are topping the thumbs ups in Seeking Alpha's data tracking, and most likely by a wide margin.

     

    I have yet to write Seeking Alpha founder David Jackson. My goal is to try to figure a way with him to allow the nearly 900,000 SA members some better way to discover these Concentrators.

     

    The thumbs ups we're generating shows that page views are much higher than comments posted. If page views are anything near what JP's articles generate, than SA logically should consider advertising in the margins each side of this column, to pay back the money SA spends on server usage.

     

    I want to again add that I would never take a dime of anything the APC's would generate if such advertising occurred. I'd help out with Axionistas T-shirts, or donate the money generated to a Honduran school I used to do charity work for in my, "Pens and Pencils for the Children of Honduras," charity I used to run.

     

    Please continue to thumbs up this Concentrator, which can be found directly above the first comment made in this thread. Thanks!
    9 Jan 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    And while you're at it thumbs up my articles too because it has a big impact on the number of times I hit the front page. Since I rarely publish SA exclusives, I don't get paid for any of this anyway.
    9 Jan 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Let's all go over and give JP some thumbs up! On my way John.
    9 Jan 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Wilco. I've been deficient.
    9 Jan 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    We've got to spread it out over time so as not to arouse suspicion.

     

    David White already complained that the 'Gades thumbing each other up all the time was ruining the ... "goals" I guess. I'm sure SA will be on the lookout for a plethora of late-coming thumbs, especially from folks that commented long ago and far away.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jan 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    I use Google Chrome as my default browser, and use this extension

     

    http://bit.ly/zvUtEQ

     

    Pretty sure there's a version for Firefox as well ...

     

    My combination makes for a pretty pleasant SA experience ...

     

    (was that subtle enough?)
    9 Jan 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I just disable flash (in both Chrome and Firefox) and SA pages load and scroll fast.
    9 Jan 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    JP - Guess, I only pay attention to the things I am interested in ... What exactly is an SA exclusive?
    9 Jan 2012, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Isd_Ism: That's applies when JP writes/submits articles exclusively submitted to Seeking Alpha. SA then holds all copyrights to that article. And..Seeking Alpha only pays $10.00 per article, plus a miniscule amount for page views.

     

    All over the Internet, financial writers are getting screwed, as are everyone writing anything on any subject. It's why tactile newspapers have a bleak future.
    10 Jan 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Maya. Sheesh, $10.00 per article ...
    10 Jan 2012, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    Geez. Thanks for the info. So since John posts these articles somewhere else he doesn't get paid. The reason I was asking is I was at an open house for a family to show off their newborn and the father said he was a professional blogger. His blogger doesn't appear to wildly popular (blogs about being a stay at home dad, kid friendly toys, vegetarian and raising a 2 year old as a veg + fish, and that he is a professional symphony peformer). I was trying to figure out if there was real money in it.

     

    I guess that his description is the new way. 10 years ago he would have said he's in two symphonys and 20 years ago he would have said he's unemployed.
    10 Jan 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Maya - I mentioned these concentrators about a month ago in a dialogue with one of the SA editors (on the AuthorBoard conversation pages where they're taking suggestions). I was suggesting that they continue to have "instablogs" but add a feature I dubbed "frequablogs". Frequablogs - or whatever SA wants to call them - would be blogs that have enough daily traffic over the prior 30 days to suggest running ads on them and paying the Frequablog author would be profitable. The comment was acknowledged and I was told it would be looked into FWIW (for what its worth).

     

    I've been traveling today and suddenly there's 150 posts to catch up on. Traveling tomorrow too... probably be greeted by 200 posts on the other side - do you want the over or the under?
    10 Jan 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks, Jon! That's great that SA is receptive to your "frequablog" idea. I like that name. Creative!

     

    But we should have a naming contest.

     

    How about Bloglogs? Or Chapterblogs. Or, Sectorblogs? Or, how about...Concentrators?

     

    The only problem I see coming is that Quick Chat might get overwhelmed, and also attract another round of insidious trolls.

     

    I'll take the under on the 200 comments by tomorrow, midnight. If the over happens, betting we're over 50 cents!
    10 Jan 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Always do, John. I always thumbs up your articles, even if I don't make comment.

     

    And I think it's a great way to vault your wonderful articles onto Seeking Alpha's home page.
    9 Jan 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Particularly with Contributors, SA pays a lot of attention to reader response. It really galls that they changed the way they classify articles by industry because I went from the top slot in a couple of categories to the middle of nowhere. But I still knock down 150,000 page views per quarter and that's not shabby by anybody's standards.
    9 Jan 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    John and Maya--Do the comments one is asked to make with the "thumbs up" make a difference? It's tempting to write "Just because" although I have refrained thus far.
    9 Jan 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    John -

     

    Can you comment on how the payments made are for with SA and/or any other blogs you write for (Altenergy)?

     

    Simply curious.
    9 Jan 2012, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    This is a labor of love for me and I do it because I enjoy it. SA offers contributors $10 per thousand page views for exclusive content. I've had comparable offers from others. When you turn the crank it would work out to about $1,500 a quarter if I made everything SA exclusive. Since my wife spends that much on cat food, I'd rather give the content away and get the extra viewers that come from multiple sites.
    10 Jan 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    LOL on the Cat food remark John.
    10 Jan 2012, 05:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I'm a firm believer that every number needs a relevant context, and in our household budget cat food came closest to the mark.
    10 Jan 2012, 05:37 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    How many cats do you have. I know Switzerland is expensive but thats $125/month. We have one cat and at $25/month he's about to become an outdoor cat. With the neighbor dog he'll end up being a cat that lives on the roof and trees.
    10 Jan 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Sounds about right. I had two cats before I got married. They wouldn't eat dry cat food, so between the can cat food, pet insurance for the vet, toys, cleaning solutions for when they made a mess in the house, and a cat sitter if I ever wanted to go anywhere and not take them, I can believe I spent that much. Then I got married to a woman who was allergic to cats and so I traded them in on her and two kids. Hmmm...wonder which was the better deal? ;-)
    10 Jan 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    We have five, and Rachel tells me they're not fat, just big boned.
    10 Jan 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I think it's pretty much a wash until they start driving.
    10 Jan 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    LOL LOL... you are on today John!
    10 Jan 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    There's nothing like a little air between the current price and the recent lows to put a spring in the step and an edge on the wit. It's hard to sound clever when you feel really stupid because the market's being unpredictable.
    10 Jan 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    John, do you recall the page view numbers (weekly, monthly) during the March 2011 run. And do you see any correlation with what's happening now. I'd think there's some value in those hard earned page views.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    SA gives me access to the monthly page view numbers for the last year. They are:

     

    Feb – 49,286
    Mar – 63,745
    Apr – 65,980
    May – 55,478
    Jun – 40,572
    Jul – 64,384
    Aug – 65,185
    Sep – 39,018
    Oct – 48,483
    Nov – 49,708
    Dec – 43,420
    Jan – 21,378

     

    August is way out of line with trend because my "It's time to kill the electric car" piece drew 36,563 page views all on its own.

     

    What I see when I look at the numbers is my readership falling off a cliff when Maya kicked off the Concentrators. Frankly I love it because I feel more comfortable talking frankly in the friendly confines of the Concentrators than I would on the main pages.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    Great data. Also does it show how many times people look at your "archive" comparing last year's run to this weeks. I suspect that could be some kind of volume (or even pps) indicator? Thank you for sharing.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The only thing I've seen over the last few weeks that strikes me as a change is an increase in the level of recurring daily "background" hits. Typically a new article gets 90% of the page views it will ever get within the first two or three days, then daily page views drop off to a background level until the next article. In the past I got used to the idea that my daily background number was in the 500 page view range. Now the background level is closer to 1,000 which tells me that a lot of people are doing their homework and accessing the historical archive. It's all good, but it's a terribly fuzzy indicator because I have to work from memory instead of records and all men of my age know that memory is the second thing to go a little soft.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the response and levity =)
    10 Jan 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    "I think it's pretty much a wash until they start driving."

     

    The kids or the cats?? ;-)
    10 Jan 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Renzo: That's what I'm counting on with this "thumbs up experiment." That the number of thumbs up will make a difference, somehow, someway.

     

    Individual comments can only be "Liked." Articles and Instablogs (like this Concentrator) can be "thumbsed-up."
    9 Jan 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    I think I may be the only one regularly doing the Google Plus +1 thing on the Concentrators.

     

    I'm pretty sure that I read it has some affect on the page's Google Page Rank.

     

    https://plus.google.com

     

    It's clearly not going to replace Facebook, but it's pretty easy to set up.
    9 Jan 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    I +1 too. I get the feeling that the +1 counter doesn't add up all the people who hit +1.
    10 Jan 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 1/9/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 393,826, 436,477, and 11,900 respectively,giving total volume for the day of 842,203. Buy:sell ends at 1:1.08 and buy:(sell+unknown) is 1:1.139. But note that 1:1.08 does *not* reflect a lot of selling sans buyers (yet?).

     

    85,100 shares traded at the close (but at 16:00:09) in 4 trades immediately after close at $0.424. They were of sizes 36.5K, 25K, 10.4K and 13.2K. They were all classified "buys" as the bid/ask was $0.4151/$0.425 at the time.

     

    I believe this statistic, in isolation, having gone from a reducing positive buy bias to an increasing positive sell bias is the early suggestion that we have begun to enter consolidation as the last of the momentum players begin exiting.

     

    This seems confirmed by the higher low and lower high and a change in the intra-day pattern where we went flat from 14:00-15:00 (approximate) rather than seeing a rise (albeit small) during that time in the recent past. Support is also offered by the early trading seeing more buyers moving bid closer to the ask and very late in the day more sellers moving the ask closer to the bid. As it becomes apparent that momentum is reducing, these "weak hand" sellers should be exhausted relatively quickly.

     

    For a "snapshot" of how quickly the sentiment swung, look at a few buy:sell ratio snapshots from earlier in the day (which also highlight how the bids and asks were moving, generally). Note the change in the early afternoon. Also note the volume jump in the afternoon (and the volume at close above). A *lot* of sellers said "This run's done" today. And by that action they plant the seeds for the next run because *current* buyers are *not* looking at that short-term behavior - the momentum has run it's short-term course and ADD momentum traders will be (are?) off to greener pastures quickly.

     

    Buy:sell ends (including the AH blocks) at 1:1.08
    14:18 buy:sell 1.01:1 vol 369,434
    13:14 buy:sell 1.52:1 vol 267,134
    11:13 buy:sell 1.27:1 vol 213,444
    10:14 buy:sell 1.18:1 vol 110,295

     

    Another thing I liked seeing is the generally reduced number of market-makers at the best level on the bid/ask. I take from this that we have a new class of "bottom feeders" and a reduced aggregate number of profit-taking sellers developing. I'm betting sellers get exhausted first during consolidation and we start another leg up in the next few days to a week or so. *But* we have seen in the past that we can consolidate for a very long time. But this time we have news already and likely more to come soon. We'll see.

     

    The daily short sales are still running near normal (a long-term average percentage from 10/3 through sometime in December was ~36%). Note the difference in the volume calculated above from the ADVFN trade data numbers of 842,203 and the FINRA volume. The difference is 85,100, composed as detailed above.

     

    103 Vol 0340713, Sht 099149 29.10% LHC 0.2800 0.3100 0.30 b/s 1.86:1
    104 Vol 0699563, Sht 200313 28.63% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.32 b/s 1.50:1
    105 Vol 0888450, Sht 436805 49.16% LHC 0.3200 0.4000 0.39 b/s 2.14:1
    106 Vol 1166583, Sht 465727 39.92% LHC 0.3851 0.4499 0.41 b/s 1.15:1
    109 Vol 0757103, Sht 235677 31.13% LHC 0.4000 0.4399 0.43 b/s 1:1.08

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jan 2012, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    HTL, sorry, I'm sure you explained it before, but what is considered "normal" for the daily shorts?
    9 Jan 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    When I use the otcbb website's short interest lookup page (http://bit.ly/w2v2wj), I see that AXPW's short interest has been almost zero at the twice-monthly reporting dates recently. How does that reconcile with your daily short sales reported numbers?

     

    Thanks!
    9 Jan 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    "The daily short sales are still running near normal (a long-term average percentage from 10/3 through sometime in December was ~36%).".

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jan 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I think you need to explain what you mean about daily shorts every time you mention them. New comers and a lot of people can easily get confused that you are talking about people shorting the stock. Daily shorts are what the market makers use to trade the stock and remain market neutral could be something you write each time you talk about them.

     

    AXPW has pretty much zero short interest.
    9 Jan 2012, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor,
    You are correct there is no short interest in AXPW.
    9 Jan 2012, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mr Investor: You can also retrieve short % by using Short Squeeze.com

     

    Here's a link to AXPW's short info for today:

     

    http://bit.ly/w9wxUd

     

    Welcome to the Axion Concentrator.
    9 Jan 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Summarizing stuff posted in previous concentrators and other places so as not to bore everyone to tears ...

     

    Market-makers routinely naked short (exempt from REG SHO naked-shorting rules) to provide liquidity (most frequently done as a response to sell orders received for shares not in their portfolio yet: FINRA and SEC rules *require* these be marked as short sales even though they have a supposedly valid order in hand).

     

    Market-makers owned by brokers (a high percentage) may have a great number of shares "in their control" immediately and would not have to short. For shares not in their control, they would naked short and then receive the shares in (normally) three trading days or less. Then either the received shares are "netted" with the short position (I've not been able to confirm this since nothing I've yet found discusses the secretive DTCC) or the market-makers can make covering buys as price drops (naked shorting id "free" to the market-makers and increases supply tending to push price down).

     

    When the shares are received, they can be sold, if not to be "netted" by some DTCC operation.

     

    Since we have no way to see covering buys (good old SEC and FINRA make sure we can't get complete information even though every real short has to mark a covering buy as such), there is no relation to the semi-monthly reports *except* that during the last few days of the period shares not covered will appear on the report. That's why you seldom see zero.

     

    So I conclude that:
    - *most* shorts we see on the daily and semi-monthly are not "real" shorts as we would normally think of them but are
    - side-effects of normal daily market-maker operations.

     

    What I use it for is *not* trying to determine short interest in this stock (there are others where it is significant in that regard). Instead it gives a very slim glimpse into the market-makers' portfolio position (very long, very short, neutral, ...) at any moment and I have found this useful in predicting (with some greater degree of confidence?) what near-term price action might be as the market-makers try to maintain a more-or-less market-neutral position.

     

    Since the market-makers control price, to a great degree in a market that is not running away, they can be sure they make money on whatever long position they have by setting opening bids and asks to suit their needs. And to some degree, by selling, buying or naked shorting during the day, move the price to be favorable to their position.

     

    In the past (and I can inundate you with price, buy:sell and daily short sales data to demonstrate), when daily short sales are *extremely* low, we observe very strong upward pressure.

     

    When the percentage is "normal", price seems more likely to act as normal supply, demand, news, ... catalysts would dictate.

     

    When the percentage has been excessive, price has struggled.

     

    So, it's just one additional little peek into a normally hidden operation that allows us a slightly better chance of countering the system designed to fleece us.

     

    I've been studying for a long while on this, will never learn all I want and am still refining the ways that I try and apply this little additional bit.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Trades within a brokerage - one customer to another - don't require any shorting. So the nature of the trades being made (intra-broker, inter-broker, "cross trades", ...) can effect the appearance as well. so nothing can be considered in isolation.
    9 Jan 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    ACHTUNG: Be aware that for some stocks which get traded on EDGE exchanges (EDGX and EDGA MM ID's) they post their results three hours later and shortsqueeze is reporting the EDGE data a day behind and incorporating it into current data.

     

    I presume that this is because they have a batch-scheduled system and never bothered to confirm their data as I have done.

     

    Several times I subtracted a prior day's EDGE data from shortsqueeze reported volume and added the current day's *true* volume and get a match with what I report.

     

    It's not significant always, but it's an error and should be accounted for if you're going to pay for their service.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Theymay have, or may in the future, rectify this and render what I post erroneous. But last I checkd (a few weeks ago?) they had the same error.
    9 Jan 2012, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I'll make a compendium in an instablog so I can just link them to it.

     

    Yeah, I've got so much free time. Someday. But I hate to author something that *seems* complete when there's yet so much hidden.

     

    The digging continues as time permits though. Someday ...

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jan 2012, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    This is another example of where we need a mechanism to isolate certain content to a single small page, and just include the link over and over.
    9 Jan 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Is any of this shorting discussion specific to OTC-BB?
    9 Jan 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    HTL> You could post daily to a Google Doc, give us the link, name the link with the date in name and we could view your posts consecutively when we want to compare daily action to your analysis. Just a thought, not a sermon.;<)

     

    What I would like to know is what are your early conclusions on the ability of your analysis, either intraday or in the future, to accurately predict direction? Today I looked at the fact momentum (as viewed reading chart indicators) grew at the end of the day and obviously price rose after a few huge transactions. l also looked at volume by price for the day and saw a hell of a lot of volume at .43. Then looking at the price recovery to .424 after 350K (or 150K if half due to double counts) shares were rapidly sold left me to conclude price would continue to climb tomorrow. Most of today's trades won't be back on the sell block for quite a while. (Yipee!) If I had to guess a close tomorrow I would say .44 to .445. Over .45 by end of the week.
    9 Jan 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the explanation, and your time.
    9 Jan 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Gracias Mr Maya. I presume your investment horizon ends Dec 21st? ;^)
    9 Jan 2012, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wow! Really HTL? Their edge data has a lag? I also noticed the outstanding shares were wrong, too.

     

    Great work, buddy.
    9 Jan 2012, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mr Investor: Answering with one word...hardly.
    9 Jan 2012, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Yes. I notified a person on another board of this months ago and he said they come highly recommended, have lots of customers, must pay for their data feed, have sources I don't, ...

     

    He sent them an inquiry about it and received no reply at all.

     

    I seldom argue those sorts of things as they can't be easily (dis)proven.

     

    But the numbers (in this specific case! :-)), combined with manual observation, don't lie.

     

    There are times, very few, that the EDGE data doesn't appear until the following business day early in the A.M. They are the only ones in the FINRA reporting process that have this behavior.

     

    Although it doesn't affect anybody here, AFAIK, be skeptical of all this so-called reliable data. I have reported two bugs in the FINRA process, one fixed and the other under way. Keep in mind that people design these systems and don't always do as good a job in the design, implementation and testing as one might presume.

     

    Part of this may be the "new paradigm" of development - whip it out, throw it up on the net let the multitudes test and debug for you. From a cost basis, maybe this works.

     

    But it does make us the guinea pigs.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The EV theory of software development. Don't bother testing it first just sell it to gullible lab rats and fix problems if they're discovered.
    10 Jan 2012, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    WTB: "specific to OTC-BB"?

     

    Not AFAIK. I currently track CPST (trades on NASDAQ), in much greater detail, and see similar trends, although because the liquidity has been much higher much longer, the numbers have slightly different ranges.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    BW: "HTL> You could post daily to a Google Doc, give us the link, name the link with the date in name and we could view your posts consecutively when we want to compare daily action to your analysis. Just a thought, not a sermon.;<)"

     

    Hm, want to hoist me on my own petard, huh? ;-))

     

    I'm going to be a bit selfish here. It takes a lot of work for me to try and progress in my learning and the occasional re-post of something like this is a (relatively) small load on me. To take the chunk of time and do what you suggest to me at the level of quality I would like (on-going content improvement, not form) is not worth it to me *unless* I could have confidence that others would commit to trying to add to the knowledge by taking up the load of digging into the mechanicals, regulations, ... etc. over time to add to what I've been able to learn so far.

     

    Another possibility that might make it worthwhile would be a commitment to take a bunch of the data I've collected and throw it into spreadsheets that would be maintained so that we could accelerate the refinement of using this data effectively. I would even modify my daily short report programs to generate that data as .csv so it could be automatically loaded. But there's no mechanization possible (yet?) of the ADVFN snapshots. Would require some graphics-to-text software and I've not gone looking to see if any is available yet.

     

    BTW, before I forget, anyone who would like to receive, regular or on-request, any of the snapshots, daily short sales data, ... anything I have, just send me your e-mail addy in a PM on SA here. I'll set up a group folder and send 'em out as desired. I can't assure that I'll never miss a day or a snapshot though. But what I've got (or get) is yours for the asking.

     

    "... what are your early conclusions on the ability of your analysis, either intraday or in the future, to accurately predict direction?"

     

    That's a tough one. As I mentioned, I'm still trying to refine the usage of all this stuff. My refinement process is slowed by the fact that most of my energy is devoted to making (not losing) money, if possible, as I simultaneously try to gather new information about the processes that affect action, integrate external influences, ...

     

    So I've not yet been able, e.g., to make some comprehensive spreadsheets to allow inspection for trends, correlations, accuracy of predictions, etc.

     

    If I'm hitting better than 50% percent right now, I'd be satisfied that I'm progressing. But, being that recent memory trumps old, I'm remembering my thought that $0.30 was the bottom and we know how that turned out.

     

    I think you folks are better positioned to judge. I'm mostly trying to share what data I get and pass it on for whatever use it may provide. I add my comments about what I think it may portend so that all can make both their own judgments and integrate it into their thoughts as they see fit. They can also dig to see where I may have flaws in my thoughts or facts and, hopefully, improve the results by providing corrections where needed.

     

    That's one reason I'm so verbose - by exposing the thinking I hope you can better judge the validity of whatever thoughts I present.

     

    "Today I looked at the fact momentum (as viewed reading chart indicators) grew at the end of the day and obviously price rose after a few huge transactions".

     

    Might want to look at my buy:sell post from last evening. IMO, that assessment is wrong.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    In the *recent* past, we typically had some rise from late morning and a continued small rise in the 14:00-15:00 area. Monday that 14:00-15:00 was absolutely flat. Further, we had buy:sell flip from buy positive (greater than 1:1) to sell positive with volume increase starting in the afternoon.

     

    The "few huge transactions" began with the first at 13:20:40 on 40,375 at $0.42.

     

    Prior to that the largest was 25.8K at 10:00:08 at $0.41.

     

    Price had been pretty solid in that $0.42 range (getting as high as $0.4298) from 10:03:10 through 11:10:49. At 11:13:22 we moved to $0.4349 and stayed in that range until that 40K trade. So price did not rise, but in fact fell when larger transactions in the afternoon began to come in. *But* price did recover some, initially, moving as high as $0.4299, staying in the $0.4201-$0.4299 range, and not falling off again until 15:28:33 when we went to $0.4201 and *stayed* <=$0.42 until the last trade within market hours at 15:59:54, which was 4.6K @ $0.425.

     

    The 81K+ that occurred after market close (16:00:10-16:00:19) were lower in price, $0.424.

     

    So, overall, I would not classify the afternoon action as "the price rose" or "momentum grew". Relative to buying pressure, it actually did a 180.

     

    Also keep in mind that the trade type of those last 4 trades (the 81K+) were shown as "form t" by ADVFN. What this is *supposed* to mean (I have some doubts) is that these were the closing trade reporting of trades that began earlier in the day (or even in days past) and were dribbled into the market over time. The reported price is *not* necessarily the actual prices seen in the trades. These trades were supposedly opened with a notification that this sort of trade was beginning and would not be reported at all until the notification of the closing trade was posted!

     

    Can you spell "obfuscation"? Can you believe this is for our own good?

     

    Regardless, I *suspect* these are the closing trades from a Quercus sell. It would fit the scenario. It would be ~10% of the volume I calculated in my buy:sell post (*including* those four AH trades), it would be dribbled in so as not to have substantial effect on market price.

     

    Best yet, Quercus is getting a better price for the shares they must dump. This *does* please me.

     

    "or half due to double counts"

     

    We are never certain of this, as you already know. *If* they were intra-broker, they will be 1:1. *If* they were from a customer hand at one broker to a customer hand at another, 1:1 I believe. Only if a market maker took shares would we have 2:1. And, of course, we have no idea what the ratio of those various types are.

     

    "conclude price would continue to climb tomorrow. Most of today's trades won't be back on the sell block for quite a while. (Yipee!) If I had to guess a close tomorrow I would say .44 to .445. Over .45 by end of the week".

     

    I agree with the substance of that. *Except* the climb and close. Using *only* TA of the chart action, we *may* (repeat *may*) have started to consolidate. *If* so, we'll have higher low, lower highs and reducing volume. Alternately, same low and lower highs. Or alternately again same lows and highs. All of these, especially if volume is lower, suggest consolidation.

     

    But we may not be entering consolidation. My suggestion that we *may* be doing so comes *only* as the *first* day of a *possible* trend which I *expect* to develop ATM, based on *normal* behavior after a big run up. So I have begun the call for consolidation and add an admission of "confirmation bias" being a part of that call.

     

    Reviewing my comment that I linked above, and considering the recent swing from this

     

    1230 Vol 1220038 Sht 0195752 16.04% LHC 0.2500 0.2800 0.27 b/s 1:1.39
    0103 Vol 0340713 Sht 0099149 29.10% LHC 0.2800 0.3100 0.30 b/s 1.86:1
    0104 Vol 0699563 Sht 0200313 28.63% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.32 b/s 1.50:1
    0105 Vol 0888450 Sht 0436805 49.16% LHC 0.3200 0.4000 0.39 b/s 2.14:1
    0106 Vol 1166583 Sht 0465727 39.92% LHC 0.3851 0.4499 0.41 b/s 1.15:1

     

    from this comment

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    to the buy:sell end seen today, ...

     

    I feel the odds are substantial that we're entering at least a short-term consolidation since our buy:sell is now *slightly* biased to the sell side after being strongly biased to the buy side and weakening.

     

    For me, I judged that we had another class of bottom-feeders and that momentum traders are exiting. When they finish, price will rise again. My best guess was a few days to a week, but it is only a guess. The continued good volume of trade does make me think it won't take long - (hopefully) no more weeks on end of sideways (yet).

     

    A catalyst, like positive PR, could change everything instantly, of course.

     

    Today's action? Normally I avoid precision because precision is not really possible given these circumstances. But if I had to guess and assume that Quercus is in again today, I would guess the low stays +/- 1/2 penny of yesterdays and the high does the same for the high.

     

    All with incomplete information, SWAGS applied, in experimental mode, etc.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    If Quercus did sell that 81k yesterday then they have sold ~840k shares which is what they filed an SEC for. They should be done for the next 70 days, until they file another SEC 144.
    10 Jan 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Wow! That was quick of them. In that case, BW's call may be spot-on.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Quercus is not necessarily done. Rule 144 has two limits and a selling stockholder can sell the greater of:

     

    1. One percent of the issuer's outstanding stock; or

     

    2. The average weekly trading volume during the four calendar weeks preceding the filing of a Form 144.

     

    Publicly available SEC Phone Interpretation say:

     

    "A holder of restricted securities files a notice on Form 144 reporting the proposed sale of less than the full amount of securities that could be sold under the volume tests of Rule 144(e). During the same three-month period, the holder determines to make further Rule 144 sales in an amount that, taken together with the original sales, would not exceed the maximum number of securities that could have been sold at the time of the notice. By filing an amendment to the Form 144, the holder can proceed with the additional sales."

     

    Amending a Form 144 can be tricky because the selling stockholder has to look back and look forward, but it can be done. Since weekly trading volumes have been very high for the last few months, I won't be surprised to see an amendment.
    10 Jan 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    I figured we would see that amended form by now to sell more securities but I guess they would wait until they exhausted this one.

     

    When they do amend the form would they have to limit themselves to the avg weekly trading volume that took place the five weeks prior to the original form or would they be able to use the trading volume prior to the five weeks of the amended forms date? There will be a substantial difference in the average volume for the five weeks prior to those two dates.

     

    Either way the 850k already sold will be counted for the 90 day period.
    10 Jan 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    HTL> I hate to split hairs but when I said price rose after the big blocks were sold towards the end of the day the price action as summarized by you was "until 15:28:33 when we went to $0.4201 and *stayed* <=$0.42 until the last trade within market hours at 15:59:54, which was 4.6K @ $0.425. The 81K+ that occurred after market close (16:00:10-16:00:19) were lower in price, $0.424." So all of the end of the day trades were higher than <=.42

     

    With respect to "momentum" I was looking at the "momentum" indicator on bigcharts.com which increased at the end of the day following the large transactions. I wasn't talking about the full day or entire afternoon.

     

    As for "If I had to guess a close tomorrow I would say .44 to .445. Over .45 by end of the week"." we'll just have to see. It was a swag based on reduced supply. Good SWAG so far:

     

    $0.4400 1,000 OBB 10:15:25
    $0.4400 10,000 OBB 10:10:02
    $0.4400 5,000 OBB 10:09:59
    $0.4400 2,000 OBB 10:09:42
    $0.4399 7,472 OBB 10:09:29
    $0.4399 1,000 OBB 10:08:32
    $0.4399 800 OBB 10:07:04
    $0.4399 200 OBB 10:07:04
    $0.4399 5,000 OBB 10:03:11
    $0.4350 1,761 OBB 09:58:33
    $0.4399 3,000 OBB 09:46:05
    $0.4399 3,000 OBB 09:45:54
    $0.4399 4,300 OBB 09:40:58
    $0.4399 430 OBB 09:38:53
    $0.4399 500 OBB 09:37:09
    $0.4250 1,675 OBB 09:35:13
    $0.4250 3,375 OBB 09:30:15
    $0.4250 1,625 OBB 09:30:10
    $0.4250 5,000 OBB 09:30:10
    $0.4250 500 OBB 09:30:07
    $0.4250 1,000 OBB 09:30:03
    $0.4250 2,325 OBB 09:30:03

     

    Cheers.
    10 Jan 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I think you may want to adjust your sights a bit for Friday.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I love it JP. You are so subtle.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    BW: Ah, as to momentum.

     

    As to today's price action, right now you look closer than I and I'd rather be "richer than righter"! :-))

     

    Nothing would please me more than having confirmation that the momo traders were gone, at least for a while, and our buyers remained strong!

     

    And this is *before* the next bit of PR/news appears!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    If you peruse StockTalk today -- you'll find some explicit confirmation of some of the momo trader departures. As you say HTL -- "at least for awhile."
    10 Jan 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    All, I had this discussion with JP last week. We know after the latest form 4 filing that Quercus (anybody know the correct pronunciation?) have sold 826,000 shares. If they amend they will be limited by the four week avg volume for the 4 previous weeks prior to the 12-19 start of the latest form 144 filing. Here are the numbers.

     

    wk 11-21 1438163
    wk 11-28 1132643
    wk 12-5 3131043
    wk 12-12 1870152 total 7572001
    4 week avg 1,893,000

     

    1,893,000 - 850,000 = 1,043,000

     

    They can amend their 144 registration and up the sales count to ,1,893,000 by adding up to 1,043,000 more shares for sale.

     

    If they amend and add the max and the volume holds up, they could still be done by the end of January or mid Feruary. We may get 6 or 8 weeks w/o Quercus in the market prior to the end of March.

     

    If they amend to the max, they will be down to approx. 1.8 mil to sell after the end of March.

     

    They are helping us right now with liquidity and it has not stalled the current rise.

     

    Thanks Quercus! 8-))

     

    Kent
    10 Jan 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    All that volume at the end of the day at .41 to .424, along with a lot of accumulation at .43 during the day, bodes well for tomorrow. Supply will tighten up even more I suspect leaving price only one direction - up! I wouldn't be surprised if those big blocks toward the end of the day were the large .25 cent buyers when SS probably exited taking profits. Or - maybe SS wasn't done.
    9 Jan 2012, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    See my reply to your previous questions.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    Can anyone provide a bit more info on the 1,085,714 derivative warrants exercisable through 6/2013 at a price of $0.57? Who holds those warrants and what are they "derivative" of?
    9 Jan 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The warrants that are classified as derivative were issued to Merriman Curan Ford, the brokerage firm that acted as intermediary for the Quercus transaction. The details are discussed on the bottom of page 37 with a carry-over to page 38.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/suQjK0
    10 Jan 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John.
    10 Jan 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Look at the volume by price from Dec 30th thru today on this daily chart. See the similarity between volume at .25 and today's volume. Does it mean the big buyers at .25 flipped today? Who knows, but correlation is exact.

     

    http://bit.ly/y3WAZv
    9 Jan 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Nice find Bang,
    Doesn't mean that it is the same shareholders but it certainly has that look and feel about it.
    9 Jan 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Hate to say it but chart was only thru 8th and did not include today. Here's thru today. Rising price, falling volume. I still believe we close higher tomorrow unless volume falls off a cliff and higher by end of week. To much volume at recent prices for lot of flipping. Sellers may chase price down if they are desperate, but why? Frankly I don't care, the more that gets sold in today's price range the tighter stock availability becomes tomorrow.

     

    Here's the correct chart including today. Still a lot of correlation and yesterday's shares were selling for more than today at the high.

     

    http://bit.ly/AhnRWe
    10 Jan 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    All I can say is that my measly 5K bought at .252 didn't get flipped today :-)

     

    As M.Smart would say .... "Missed it by that much."
    10 Jan 2012, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    WT> Enjoy that 4 bagger at a buck!
    10 Jan 2012, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    I bet that $1300 dollar purchase will be worth over 10k in the next 3 years. Nice buy indeed.
    10 Jan 2012, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    I like it because it seems confirm what I suggested a short while back that I felt the momentum players were rapidly exiting and either are exhausted or will be soon. I based that also on volume combined with price action.

     

    But I *think* there's a few hanging in yet. But *very* few.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Just to be clear, that wasn't my only buy. The measly was in reference to BW's initial reference to "big buyers at .25"

     

    But it brought my average down to .36, so I'm doing the happy dance, and so far my easily debatable decision to sell both winners and losers and "high quality" stocks in December that I only "kinda liked" (to both overweight and de-diversify) to buy more AXPW is looking good. I saw it as a once in a lifetime opportunity/gamble. And given I'm no spring chicken, probably the last one :-)

     

    It's interesting though when you do finally hit almost the low ... it's no doubt still a great buy, but now instead of averaging down, I would have to average up ... and truth be told I'm not that "smart/unemotional" a trader ... and I'm already way over-weight in the name, so that's my "excuse" for standing pat here. That plus I keep waiting for the pullback that doesn't seem to be coming ... certainly not as soon as I expected.
    10 Jan 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    John was correct when he said Quercus was not an albatross as I had called them. We need liquidity from Quercus to supply buyers because most of us Concentrators, the insiders and many others are all underwater still and not going to sell. People buying in today are not going to be sellers tomorrow.

     

    WTB> You make sick to stomach - with envy!

     

    JP> I said "Over .45 by end of the week." No adjustment needed.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    If Quercus kept selling at this pace - 100k shares a day - he would be out in 6 weeks, ignoring the Form 144 limitations for a moment.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » f-kru: I was just doing the same calculation using 75k per day. Came up with ~ 78 trading sessions left for Quercus, including that times 2 thingy. Which seems more and more up for discussion.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Oh, and thank you to everyone who everyone who makes this place what it is. There's no way I would have done what I did without this community.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I think you can ignore the double counting... e.g. according to the latest SEC filing, he sold ~200k in two days, leaving him with ~2.840k.
    If you assume he accounts for 10% of (double counted) daily volume, you're at 20% of daily sales. Probably volume will go down with a rising pps, though.
    We've been through this for such a long time, it's hard to believe that it will be over in a few months time.
    Next "speed bump", to use JPs term, IMO will be the finance placement (March?) and Quercus exercising it's warrants in 2013.
    My guess it we'll see $.60 in no time, $2 end of year and $4 by 2013 before the warrants are exercised.
    10 Jan 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Quercus just filed another Form 4 for sales on Thursday and Friday last. Thursday was 88,000 at $0.359 and Friday was 113,000 at $0.409. http://1.usa.gov/z1kCHv

     

    I think we can expect an amendment to their Form 144 pretty quick.
    10 Jan 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/oNHcd3

     

    down to 2,846,450 shares owned.
    10 Jan 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    Wow. Disposed of 826,000 shares between 12/19/11 and last friday.. At that rate of sales Quercus could left holding only warrants by end-April.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My nephew just texted me and wrote that he likes the slow, steady climb, rather than a spike.

     

    "Huh?" I texted back. "We're only 4 cents away from the stock doubling in six and a half trading sessions? That's slow and steady?"

     

    He's yet to reply.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    He's probably transferring his SIM card into his newly acquired iPhone
    10 Jan 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    If we can get near .50 we"ll be back at levels not seen since Halloween. I wont be happy until we get back to the levels seen around Easter 2011 though =)
    10 Jan 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    In the age of HFT, quants, ADD markets, he *may* be right! =>8-O

     

    Get into 21st-century trading you old fart! ;-))

     

    I need the company!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Anyone have a good conversation with Allen & Caron recently? Back in my days of micro-cap investing, such a conversation with the IR/PR firm would often yield a LOT of valuable info. But, that was pre-Reg FD environment.

     

    Thanks again.

     

    Tom
    10 Jan 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    RSI is approaching overbought. Hopefully the market will stay "irrational" on the buy side for awhile. We are 2.5 cents from erasing that horrible slide after the conference call. C'mon choo choo!
    10 Jan 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    FUN VOLUME FACT. In January 2011 Axion reported total trading volume of 4,122,900 shares. In January 2012 reported total trading volume is already 4,167,400 shares.
    10 Jan 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More facts:

     

    Williams% R is the highest it's been since September 6, 2011.

     

    Momentum is the highest in two years @ 157.89

     

    $0.45 price right now is the upper Bollinger Band resistance. We bust up and through we could continue riding this "spike."
    10 Jan 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    Touched .60 for about 6 seconds, according to the otcbb.com.
    10 Jan 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    DMc (sound like a rapper ;-))

     

    Today? My Level 2 shows a high of $0.46??

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, guys, I meant .46.

     

    We had a break in meetings and I compulsively checked otcbb.com and saw how briefly it hit .46, then saw Maya's comment (since I also compulsively check the concentrator) and dashed off a quick response.

     

    .60 would have been nice but perhaps a little too much in 1 day.
    10 Jan 2012, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sixty cents?

     

    I see that we nudged above 45 cents:

     

    500 @ $0.455
    1000 @ $0.455
    6000 @ $0.46

     

    But no 60 cents.
    10 Jan 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Looking at volume by price the majority of shares have gone for .45 today, mostly retail judging by size, and unless someone wants to take out a lot of price levels with a huge block there is little else the stock can do but continue climbing. Even if it dropped a lot on a big block at .41 to .42 it would jump right back where it is now. As long as all of us hold our shares tight there is little alternative but continued price appreciation until it starts trading sideways in a consolidation range.
    10 Jan 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A new kind of squeeze is going on. Basically, we Axionistas have reduced the float by millions of shares, maybe more than 30% of all outstanding shares. Add in the board and institutions not selling and the available float has to be pretty small.

     

    Hence, we're in the very early stages of a squeeze going on that should keep the price on the rise, even though every technical indicator states we should be pulling back in a reversion to the mean.

     

    My break even is 55 cents. I'll be ripping a cork of the bubbly the day we close above that price. I had better be stick a bottle in the fridge...it may not chill in time.
    10 Jan 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    I was jonesing and bought another 5000 at 0.45

     

    I can stop any time I want.
    10 Jan 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Renzo: You just think that, until you try and stop! Once an Axionista, always an Axionista ;-)

     

    Actually, averaging UP makes good sense from a strategic viewpoint. Reserve your cash until you see a real bottom and THEN start buying. But how, exactly, can you "find a bottom"? That's my big problem.
    10 Jan 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Renzo ... Trend following is a standard pro thing to do. Buy high and sell higher until the whole thing collapses past some indicator you selectively use to judge such things. Chasing performance at a trailing percentage basis price actually makes more sense than averaging down, "Catching a falling knife" or one a hundred other cliches.
    10 Jan 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    siliconh..

     

    I never seem to have any problem finding the bottom
    in wine buttles.
    10 Jan 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Me too Renzo. Mine was the first trade of the day 2325 @ 0.425.

     

    I don't want to stop yet. I'm still averaging down but on the way up now.

     

    8-))
    10 Jan 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    I'm still below my cost basis but I was surprised to see how little the purchase lowered that basis.

     

    Some time ago I suggested we love our family, dogs (or expensive Swiss cats) and our country, but NOT our stocks.

     

    Guys, I'm trying to be strong, but I think I've fallen for AXPW.
    10 Jan 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • jvanwest
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    Some info about the detroit auto show. They mention a BMW 5 series hybrid, there has been some speculation on this board about wether or not it has Axion inside?

     

    http://nyti.ms/zxENPo

     

    JVW
    10 Jan 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I'd love to think it possible, but am firmly in the highly unlikely camp.
    10 Jan 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » javanwest: Gotta love this quote from the article you linked:

     

    "McKinsey said hybrids could account for up to a quarter of sales by 2020, with battery-powered cars making up 5 percent."

     

    And this one, too:

     

    "Hybrids and electric cars typically cost at least several thousand dollars more than their conventional counterparts. BMW said Monday that its ActiveHybrid 5 would be priced at $8,700 above the gas-powered 535i. The Volt costs nearly twice as much as the similarly sized Chevy Cruze, after a $7,500 federal tax credit."

     

    Thanks for the link!
    10 Jan 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Scientists at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory have invented a sensor that can detect minute fluctuations in lithium ion batteries. This sensor, "... can warn of impending catastrophic failure in lithium-ion batteries."

     

    US and international patents are pending.

     

    http://bit.ly/wUjtVl

     

    We don't need no stinking impending catastrophic sensor!
    10 Jan 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Maya, how can you say that?

     

    I need an "impending catastrophic failure sensor" one for my portfolio! :-))
    10 Jan 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    I need one for my relationship with my wife! =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    My chart doodles: http://bit.ly/y06R05
    10 Jan 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    BW, pretty good doodles! Got cheese to go with 'em? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. Let's start a guessing pool as to when we close at .50 or above. I want to say by next Wednesday so I'll stick to that as a guess.
    10 Jan 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    BW: Shoot! You've trounced me so soundly today I wouldn't want to go 'gainst you!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Just lucky HTL. For whatever it is worth I have been looking mostly at price/volume levels since the .25 low. Today, the majority of the buys (or sells if you like that word better) today have been at .45 putting a pretty firm foundation in at .44-.45. Stock has to go up except for large blocks at a discount to current PPS.
    10 Jan 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Friday
    10 Jan 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Wednesday
    10 Jan 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Which Wednesday?
    10 Jan 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    LOL - tomorrow.
    10 Jan 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    You may well be right FPA. I was just trying to be conservative.
    10 Jan 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Remember its "when we close at .50 or above" not a brief high.
    10 Jan 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Why not tomorrow! .55 by the end of the week. 8-))
    10 Jan 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    :) Thursday (1/12)
    10 Jan 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    Earlier, I suggested Thursday (day after tomorrow).

     

    :) That speculation assumed there would be no announcements tomorrow of PowerCube sales, design wins, or large PbC purchase orders.
    10 Jan 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just recalculated my brokerage account break even cost; it's 46.8 cents (forgot to include the 25,000 shares I bought at the end of last year).

     

    It's always, ahem, greener on the other side of the fence.

     

    You'll get there, JP. When you arrive, I'll be the guy gleefully snoozing in the hammock under the elm tree.
    10 Jan 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    You're probably right Maya, but don't worry. I'll ask one of my liter bearers to wake you gently with an adult beverage and a foot massage.
    10 Jan 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Good for you Maya. I'm at .535. Hopefully back in black by end of this Friday. 8-))
    10 Jan 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Another PowerGenix China JV Start-Stop story:

     

    http://bit.ly/A41We5
    10 Jan 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Is it possible to talk about 400,000 battery production without test complete by now? Test complete already?

     

    Ford, GM, BMW..........already tested this battery?

     

    I do not know..............
    10 Jan 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    They are going to "set up a factory to produce 400,000 batteries per year" by the end of 2012. That's a long way from making the batteries in quantity.

     

    Too bad the Chinese own 51%. That's like removing any profit for the Western company partner.
    10 Jan 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The article speaks of "400,000 batteries per year or 200,000 watt-hours total." A lead-acid battery for stop-start is about 1,000 watt-hours. Presumably the PowerGenix battery packs will have less energy, but even if you slash the energy requirement by 80%, total production of 200,000 watt-hours per year equates to 1,000 vehicle battery packs, or enough to support a reasonable testing program.
    11 Jan 2012, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I kinda liked the Axion plug at the end of the article.
    10 Jan 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    John, when did you start liking plugs?
    10 Jan 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The other kind of plug smarty pants.
    10 Jan 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I believe there's a military term called "threat assessment" and it might be useful to apply here. How real a threat can these guys, and their chemistry be? There is a finite number of chemistry pairings with which to form a battery. Nickel-Zinc has presumably been known a long time... why has it not risen to dominance before? Does it have an achilles heel? I read a few comments on their consumer cells on amazon, and there seems to be mixed reviews... Anyone have experience with them?
    10 Jan 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    lol. Sorry, couldn't resist :)
    10 Jan 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    You are referring to powergenix? From a Q&A with their CEO at their website it looks like they are about 3 years behind Axion trying to get to commercial market. They have not begun testing but plan on providing sample batteries to European OEMs this year in August. We all know how long testing takes as does Maxwell Tech. stating their testing with OEM"s took 4 years. So my "threat assessment" for powergenix in the micro-hybrid market over the next three years is on code yellow at this point.

     

    http://bit.ly/ypTSH6
    10 Jan 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... Here's 2 cents from not a battery guy but I'd bet that NiZn battery will not be a great threat to Axion.

     

    1) On a volumetric basis, they are not as energy dense as a LAB so they might be on an even keel with PbC. (+0 Axion)
    2) They are high current fast discharge (& fast charging) but aren't good at providing or accepting surge (+1-Axion). They don't like low rates of discharge because it causes "whiskering" of the Zn electrode (something like stalagmites when the Zn doesn't make it all the way back) or just disappears into the electrolyte (+1 Axion).
    3) Best cycle life I've heard of is ~3x a standard LAB (+1 Axion, 'cause we don't know the answer to this)
    4) They are totally recyclable but cost is higher than Pb and virgin metal cost more than Pb. (+1 Axion)
    5) This I'm not sure of but NiZn can't be put into an AGM formfactor. They are flooded. (???)

     

    As this relates to PowerGenix ... got me. They say they've made a "Great Leap" forward but I don't know if that is just going Chinese or a meaningful technological advancement. I'd venture to say that a really new & improved NiZn battery would be great in full hybrid (right alongside an Axion for Start/Stop functions). Testing will tell.
    10 Jan 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Is it just my eyes or was that a laminate floor in the power cube?
    10 Jan 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    D, good stuff. Thanks much. Sounds like it will be worth tracking, and keeping an eye on, but not kicking up the defcon level...
    10 Jan 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Excellent back handed stab and compliment Isd. All are in good moods with the price up. Its amazing what 10 cents will buy in the way of goodwill right now.
    10 Jan 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: "Its amazing what 10 cents will buy in the way of goodwill right now".

     

    That made me LoL!

     

    Good way to end the day, just need to do my EOD post.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2012, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Hi DDR,

     

    I had some additional notes from six months ago on PowerGenix NiZn. Under their covers, there are a number of unmentioned problems, but it is a promising technology with a very good CTO.

     

    a) Their cycle life is unpredictably variable as a function of use. For instance, charging them slowly gives a shorter life than charging them in the intermediate speed. (Think about that!) Cycle life problems continue, even after PowerGenix "big fix" to their zinc electrode. As you notes, they do not like slow discharge either.

     

    b) Nor fast charge. NiZn has a gas generation problem at high charge speeds, without a gas recombination mechanism of worth. This is a 1C battery technology in reality. PbC in the mid range (20 to 80% SOC) can handle 5C easily and in fact I've seen then eat up 15C regimes.

     

    c) Some Comparatives:

     

    Battery type PowerGenix NiZn
    Energy density (Wh/kg @12A) 60
    Energy density (Wh/L) 170
    Continuous power density (W/kg) >900
    Price (¢/Wh) 30-50
    Cycle life 100-500
    Internal resistance (mOhm) <4.5
    High-rate Operating Temp (°C) -20 to +60

     

    Battery type NiCd
    Energy density (Wh/kg @12A) 40
    Energy density (Wh/L) 135
    Continuous power density (W/kg) 600
    Price (¢/Wh) 35-60
    Cycle life 100-800
    Internal resistance (mOhm) >5
    High-rate Operating Temp (°C) -30 to +60

     

    Battery type NiMH
    Energy density (Wh/kg @12A) 38
    Energy density (Wh/L) 135
    Continuous power density (W/kg) 600
    Price (¢/Wh) 40-60
    Cycle life 100-800
    Internal resistance (mOhm) >5
    High-rate Operating Temp (°C) 0 to 50

     

    But think about the slow charge and discharge issue, killing their cycle life. Wow, how do you deal with that? They need another electrode "fix", I think. But if it gets there ...

     

    kt
    10 Jan 2012, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >KT ... Such is the nature of Zn.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    My only worry about a company like this is that they won't have to do the normal testing if they are just selling in China. Since when has the Chinese government bothered to see what the impact of something will be before they threw it on their own market? I agree they are at least 3-4 years behind in the Western world, but they might start selling to Chinese consumers and automakers well before then.
    10 Jan 2012, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    I try to Google Axion Power several times a day. I usually limit it to a search for the last 24 hours. Since the latest press releases and articles have been released, the first three pages of results are filled with good info and at times many links to the Concentrator. I was shocked to see my first ever blog on Motley Fool's CAPS come up first on two occasions when I Googled Axion Power.

     

    Post good quality blogs on the services you subscribe to about Axion. Many of them will be found when people hear about the company and begin searching.
    10 Jan 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, your Motley Fool blog just popped in my inbox as a result of my Google Alerts set to "Axion Power". You're getting good exposure for us.

     

    Today's volume by price showed volume rose the higher the price went. See chart here: http://bit.ly/xkvJao

     

    Looks like tomorrow might be another leg up. Guess? High of 48, low of .45, close around .475
    10 Jan 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way to the next Concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 Jan 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    One small tidbit to bake into the equation. This is probably something most of you have thought of. We just had a bit of a death spiral because,,,the lower the share price , the worse the future offering might dilute. duh.
    It certainly looks like we made a bottom,,,due to the high volume, and annual timing of the lows. Another big duh.
    My point is,, yes, I'm getting to it,,,is that the more axpw goes up, the better it is for the stock,,,= less dilution in the offering. So this sword cuts in both directions. Which very well may be a duh.. but it may also figure into the current and future share price..ok,,back to my Gilligan's Island rerun.
    10 Jan 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
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