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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 47: Beginning Jan 12, 2012, John Petersen's Article 204 comments
    Jan 12, 2012 6:55 PM
    Beneath is a fine article written by battery expert, John Petersen, with a few modifications from the orginal article posted in AltEnergyStocks: 


    An Elephant Hunter's Theory About Axion Power's Price Surge


    John Petersen

    Over the last few days I've been inundated with questions from readers who want to know why Axion Power International (AXPW.OB) has smoothly surged from a low of $0.25 on December 30th to a closing price of $0.58 yesterday. The short answer is the stock is finally emerging from the mother of all supply and demand imbalances and the persistent sellers that punished the price over the last 20 months are almost out of the picture. Since I believe we're witnessing the beginning of an entirely new market dynamic, a detailed explanation seems appropriate.

    In December 2009, Axion closed a private placement transaction where four large buyers and 47 small investors bought 45.8 million shares of common stock at a price of $0.57 per share. I was thrilled. At the time I wrote:

    "To my way of thinking, the most impressive aspect of Axion's financing is sheer size. Axion had roughly 37 million common share equivalents outstanding before the placement and sold 46 million additional shares. Selling 55% of a company without surrendering control is extremely rare. The more telling fact is that the cumulative reported trading volume in Axion's stock for 2009 has only been 6.6 million shares. In other words, these private placement investors bought roughly seven times the annual trading volume in a single transaction. Nobody in his right mind buys that kind of weight with the expectation that he'll be able to resell at a profit in an illiquid market. That tells me this group of investors is taking a long-term view and swinging for the fences with Axion's other large holders. I'm delighted to have the company, even if they did get a better price."

    Based on 30 years in the trenches as a small company corporate finance lawyer I believed the 2009 private placement would put a solid floor of $1.20 under the stock price. The market behaved about the way I expected it would for three and a half months and then all hell broke loose when:
    • A busted hedge fund that owned 2.7 million shares began liquidating;
    • A bankruptcy estate that owned 544,000 shares began liquidating; and
    • Resale registration statements for 2008 and 2009 private placement shares went effective.
    All of the sudden there were far more shares in the hands of willing sellers than the market could absorb. As the sellers started pushing their offer prices down in an effort to clear their books or turn a quick profit, the price fell from a 10-day moving average of $1.18 on March 30th to $0.80 on May 30th. By the end of July the 10-day average had fallen to $0.55. There were no problems with Axion's business, but there were a number of large shareholders who forgot the fable of the goose that laid the golden eggs.

    A few days ago one of my followers on Seeking Alpha drew my attention to the daily short reports OTCBB market makers file with FINRA. The FINRA data is unusual because the market makers report all sales of shares that aren't under their control as short sales. Therefore, two types of transactions show up in the FINRA reports:
    • True short sales; and
    • Transactions where a selling stockholder has a physical stock certificate that must be converted into electronic form prior to delivery.
    Other transaction types are reported from time to time, but they're rare. Since true short selling has never been an issue for Axion, it occurred to me that the FINRA daily short sale reports might provide an accurate and reliable way to track resales by private placement purchasers. On Tuesday my data-mining friend H. T. Love sent me FINRA short data going back to April 1, 2010, just before the resale registration statements for the private placement shares went effective. The accuracy of the FINRA data as a tracking tool for resales of private placement shares is astounding.

    Since April 1, 2010, the total of short sales reflected in daily FINRA reports from market makers is 35,888,306 shares. During that period, my best estimate of the shares that have moved from physical certificates to electronic form follows:

    Busted hedge fund2,746,869
    Bankruptcy estate543,600
    Deceased stockholder8,245,614
    The Quercus Trust5,724,978
    Special Situations Funds7,433,411
    Weak 2009 small investors
     
    10,800,000
    Total35,708,594

    My best estimate of the shares remaining in the hands of 2008 and 2009 private placement purchasers follows:

    Blackrock7,150,000
    Manatuck Hill Partners7,200,000
    The Quercus Trust2,846,451
    Strong 2009 small investors3,600,000
    Total20,896,451

    The only numbers in the tables that are an outright guess are the shares held by weak vs. strong 2009 small investors, and that guess simply assumes that 3/4 the small 2009 investors were spooked by the market decline and decided to take their cash out of the game at a break-even price. While the data for Blackrock and Manatuck Hill is based on old SEC filings, both should file updated reports by mid-February.

    If you look at the Axion chart for the last 20 months there is nothing that would attract a short-term trader, except for a brief run-up in January through March of 2010. In fact, the chart would terrify every trader I know. That means the only people who might have been attracted the stock were investors who attended an Axion presentation and decided to buy, or who've followed my blog for a long time, climbed a personal wall of worry and decided to swing for the fences in hopes of an elephant hunter's return.

    I believe my long-term readers have bought the substantial bulk of Axion’s float. Unless Manatuck Hill, Blackrock or the remaining 2009 small investors start selling in meaningful volume, it looks like the only reliable source of supply is the Quercus Trust which will probably sell the rest of its shares over the next few months. From this point forward, I believe the market price is in the collective hands of the investors who bought over the last 20 months.

    The last 20 months have been a very trying time for Axion's stockholders because of a highly unusual supply and demand dynamic. In a normal market I would have expected the floor of $1.20 to hold till the summer of 2010 when Axion announced an important development contract with Norfolk Southern that would normally have boosted the price into the $1.80 range. Last fall I would have expected Axion's disclosure of superior testing results with BMW to boost the price into the $2.70 to $3.60 range. At this point I don't know what an objective fair value for Axion's stock is, but I expect to find out over the next few weeks.

    Disclosure: Author is a former director of Axion Power International (AXPW.OB) and holds a substantial long position in its common stock.


    ####

    Thank you, John, for a wonderful piece.
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Comments (204)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please remember to thumbs up this Concentrator, which can be found directly above the first comment.
    12 Jan 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4597) | Send Message
     
    nice post on GM...this could be where AXPW fits into GM....time frame to production is about right too.
    Glad to see GM doing things right by going to college campuses and trying to build what people want instead of the old "force" us to buy because that's all they build.
    Maybe someday every time we see "Start/Stop" technology then it is automatically AXPW!
    12 Jan 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    This nation is going to have a new rebirth of manufacturing...
    12 Jan 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    481086 writes (from previous concentrator):

     

    $1.00 I sit tight.
    $2.00 I sit tight.
    $3.00- I get nervous.
    $4.00- I get giddy.
    $5.00- I'm an emotional wreck.
    $6.00- $crew it! I go airplane shopping.

     

    Here's my take: ....Above $5.00, Stock trades on NASDAQ, Calls and Puts get listed, Analyst followership..... I hedge with down-side PUT spreads and add to Long position and ride it through 10.... ok... maybe wishful thinking, but it is important to dream... lol
    12 Jan 2012, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I'll go out on a limb and say price begins slow climb back up tomorrow. Bulk of buys today were at .50-.51. Why would a flipper wait until tomorrow when they could easily have flipped today? Closing price? .515-.535 my guess.

     

    However, the fact that its Friday (which always stinks) may mean HTL is right about a slight downdraft tomorrow. No heartburn if we drift a little bit down. Where's Futurist's predictions when we need them?
    12 Jan 2012, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Last Friday was up from $.39 to $.41 on 20% higher volume so I'm not sure what to look for. Strange times right now.
    12 Jan 2012, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Snowboard 2k01
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Several reference have been made about the main Quercus principle needing cash, for a Solar enterprise he is President of. If he needed cash so bad that he sold millions of shares at less than Fifty Cents, why would he not exercise the warrants soon when they are worth a buck? The rules say he has to wait Six months to sell the stock to cash in.. By exercising the Warrants soon, he improves Axion's cash position, which I would assume would further boost the stock price, thus reaping more money sooner for him. N'est pas?

     

    I f Quercus has not the funds to convert the warrants can they sell them?
    12 Jan 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Quercus is selling Axion shares every day because it needs cash to keep its other portfolio companies from dying of starvation. The solar company is just one of many hungry mouths. If Quercus had $7.5 million to exercise its warrants, it would not be selling Axion at a 75% loss.

     

    At a $1 stock price the warrants would only be worth two-bits. If Quercus sits on the warrants, there's a chance that the stock price will reach $2.25 per share before they expire. That would give Quercus a chance to get out of Axion with its principal intact. If the price is higher than $2.25 Quercus might even make some serious money.

     

    I see no reasonable chance that the warrants will be exercised until the 11th hour on the day before they expire.
    12 Jan 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Snowboard the warrants cost more to exercise of than the current price of the stock. See JP's earlier comments in Concentrator 46 about warrant conversion.
    12 Jan 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (784) | Send Message
     
    Mr John: When they expire?
    Have a good day.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    The original expiration dates were as follows:

     

    2,857,143 on January 14, 2013;
    2,380,952 on April 7, 2013; and
    4,761,905 on June 29, 2013.

     

    I don't think any of those dates have been changed but I don't know for sure that they haven't.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (784) | Send Message
     
    I want to learn about the issue of warrants. Thank you indicate me the way.
    13 Jan 2012, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    There are any number of web resources that explain how warrants work. Unfortunately they're not the kind of things that retail investors get a chance to buy very often because you see them most often in private financing transactions and occasionally in IPOs.

     

    If you google the phrase "stock purchase warrants" without the quotation marks you'll find a ton of resources.
    13 Jan 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Snowboard 2k01
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    If Quercus stopped selling shares, after the price went above .75 they could convert some warrants into stock. That action providing some capital to Axion, would tend to drive AXPW higher providing a better price for their non warrant related stock. Rinse and repeat.
    13 Jan 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Snowboard 2k01
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Bang.

     

    Thank You.

     

    I've traded warrant in the past and despite not using a helmet until the past five years, I sorta know how they work.
    13 Jan 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Carlosgaviria,
    The best free investment educator online (besides John of course) I have found is Investopedia. Here are the definitions, articles, and tutorials about how warrants work: http://bit.ly/wtNXEN
    mj
    13 Jan 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Snowboard,
    Did the warrants you traded in the past have sell restrictions? According to John, once Quercus exercises their warrants they have to wait 6 months before they can put them on the market. While it would give Axion an infusion of cash if Quercus did that, if the stock price went down during that time they would lose money, so it is unlikely they would exercise them until they were assured that the price wouldn't come down.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Warrants are a lot like common stock because the original issuance transaction determines whether the warrants are freely transferable or restricted.

     

    While they're not as common today, small company IPOs were often structured as unit offerings that included, for example, two shares of common stock and one warrant. The common stock and warrants were usually separable after the offering and and it was not unusual to see one Nasdaq listing for the common stock and another for the warrants. In all of those cases, the common stock issuable upon exercise of the warrants was registered under the Securities Act and freely transferable upon issuance.

     

    Today warrants are less common in public offerings, but still used extensively in private offerings. Since they were sold in a private placement transaction, transfer and resale of both securities are limited, and the stock issuable upon exercise of warrants can't be registered for resale until after the warrants are exercised. If the issuer doesn't want to file a resale registration statement, the stock has to be held for six months before the safe harbor exemption of Rule 144 kicks in.

     

    If you understand this response you already know more than 99.9% of retail investors. If you want to drill down deeper I can provide a couple of links that are enough to make my eyes glaze over.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (784) | Send Message
     
    Mercy:
    Mil gracias.
    I'll have to get to study. Finally, I strongly believe in the technology (PbC), no doubt and I am convinced that this will be the year of the launch of the action.
    Saludos.
    13 Jan 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Carlos,
    Bienvenido! Be careful with this group of Axionistas, however, they will capture your investment imagination and not let go until you appreciate the gem that is called Axion. Seriously -- you will not find a group of investors with a better grasp of company and product knowledge -- or a deeper long-term commitment to a game changing technology -- or greater willingness to give you straight talk on anything you ask!
    Saludos,
    Mercy
    13 Jan 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Again I continue to state to you that I mean no disrespect.
    But your post does not make business sense for Quercus. You make statements about actions that would benefit Axion but that is not Quercus issue. Quercus has its own issues. They have said that they are selling some strong investments ( Axion) to support other new green technologies that can't be sold yet. They are selling the Axion stock but not because they don't believe in Axion. They can sell the stock BECAUSE they have the warrants to fall back on when Axion goes ballistic. They are not going to sell the warrants until Axion blasts off and they can put money in their pocket.

     

    You have convinced yourself that they will act on your hope.
    You have not analyzed what they said and their actions correctly.
    13 Jan 2012, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fine Folks: It appears Seeking Alpha is experiencing several layers of issues right now.

     

    Spell check is down. The comment alert function is quirky, at best. And there also seems to be a server loading issue as well.

     

    To speed up your access to whatever the latest comment is, if you load a page, and you seem to be "stuck," hit the refresh button on your browser bar. Found that speeds up access.
    12 Jan 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Disable Flash
    12 Jan 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    At least its not those 404 Error Messages ...
    13 Jan 2012, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Got so many 502's a while back I sent a rant email.
    13 Jan 2012, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Although TG said they "have other PowerCube proposals in various stages right now" this must be the main ace TG's planning to play:
    "A modified version of the design is in the final stages of deployment in the hybrid locomotives market." Key word "deployment."
    13 Jan 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    Bang,
    We know that at the very end of last year the NS 999 was being moved for installation of new batteries (PbC we believe). Are you suggesting that while we have been maintaining a 24/7 vigil of the yard slug, that the over-the-road hybrid locomotive application is already under test in the field, and indeed that this test is in its 'final stages'. That would be a significant advancement of the expected timeline in rail (at least for me). Or does TG simply refer to bench testing of battery strings modeled in a Cube-like format?
    13 Jan 2012, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    The first long-haul locomotive conversion for the hybrid train was originally scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2011, but Tom said in November that the build would probably be delayed until the first quarter of this year. I'm hoping that Q-1 news from NS will include completion of the 999 retrofit and commencement of the road locomotive retrofit.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:18 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4597) | Send Message
     
    Two questions:

     

    1. How long does it take to install the NS 999 battery refit? and has it been moved inside yet?
    2. Is the "modified Cube" version for the NS 999 or just over the road? or both?
    13 Jan 2012, 05:40 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Don't know if this important. A stock watch regarding Axion.
    http://bit.ly/x6F1et
    13 Jan 2012, 04:32 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4597) | Send Message
     
    It's about time!
    I have been looking for AXPW to begin to show up on stock watch sites for 2 weeks based on % increase in price & volume.

     

    It may have already been sent out privately....could be part of the reason for higher volume & price move so fast....much faster than I expected for a very pleasant surprise.

     

    Stock price over $1 helps my portfolio a bunch compared to .25!
    13 Jan 2012, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that it was issued on a day with a little pullback.

     

    I wonder what effect, if any, it would have.

     

    "Buy the rumor, sell the news" has been at work in the market, generally, for some while. I hope this isn't one of those deals.

     

    I just checked a note in my tin-foil hat - it says "Watch out for pump and dump". Hm, ... I'm not sure this would qualify though.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Axion's 10-day moving average has just moved convincingly up through the 50-day average. There are a number of signal sites that key on the 10-50 relationship and send out alerts when it changes. We'll see a lot more of these over the next few days.
    13 Jan 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    It would be interesting to see if a stock watch article significantly ups your article page viewings. Where else would someone do their due diligence?

     

    I read your article and comments on the supply of Axion private placement shares being pretty much gone. Thanks for the data. It cleared up much in my mind as to where the stock was coming from.

     

    It also absolutely convinces me that some day soon the available supply will be nil. Just about the time an announcement will be made. I'm not hoping or dreaming here. At the rate of selling right now all available stock will be gone by mid February or before. We are aware that an announcement from NS is due shortly. An announcement as to new stock is due shortly. I suspect an oil rig application announcement shortly. I suspect the PowerCube income assessment will be made shortly.

     

    Once in a while the stars align in a unique way.
    Can you say " Hang on tight folks. Its going to be a hell of a ride."
    13 Jan 2012, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,

     

    You are absolutely right. One thing that I think has been confirming itself over the past two weeks of trading and is what Johns shows in his article is that soon retailers, most who read these concentrators, will own the bulk of Axion's float. What this means is that thousands of retailers will be making individual decisions about when to sell this stock, which will have no real impact on the the stocks market price.

     

    For the majority of us we are intimately knowledgeable of the business and the managements execution of the business, and while their could be small disappointments, we are a patient bunch who believe with little doubt in the companies certain future.

     

    The only thing that has worried me about this stock in the past was the effects of a new global recession or a really bad economic environment and how that would force the large funds or institutions that still have Axion stock to liquidate their stock (pretty much what we have seen from Quercus and Special Sits). Now that it is us who own the majority of this stocks float unless we all lose our jobs at the same time and need to liquidate not even a recession can bring this thing down. This stock day-by-day has transferred itself securely into the hands of shareholders who will see the PbC come to great success. The 2 funds and institutions that have, a measly 7M shares each, can no longer bring this thing down, at this point all they can potentially do is create liquidity for the stock.

     

    What has been created here with Axion is truly an aberration in the stock universe that I find hard to believe can or will ever be re-created, not with a company that has the kind of potential and technology that Axion has.

     

    So now with each and every one of the announcements you speak about the stock will just get pushed to heights that could potentially seem ridiculous to some, but to those of us that have come to know the company so well.

     

    Disclaimer: I am not advocating newer readers to go out and buy this stock because of what I just wrote. It is better for everyone, current stockholders included, that you acquaint yourself intimately with the company and the management and fully understand why you are buying it, before making your decision. It is much more fun that way because you will have the confidence and security of knowing it thoroughly and you can really enjoy your time of ownership.

     

    P.S. I know that all sounds a bit cheesy, but hey, it is what it is.
    13 Jan 2012, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    The most fascinating aspect of the analysis is that the FINRA data confirms my belief that most of the stock that will trade at low prices already has. I've included Blackrock and Manatuck Hill in my list of potential sellers, along with a quarter of the 2009 investors. That inclusion does not mean that all of them are willing sellers. Since they apparently haven't sold, I tend to think that most are not willing sellers.

     

    Since April 2010, cumulative trading volume has been 103 million shares, which works out to 51.5 shares of selling and 51.5 million shares of buying. If you focus on the shareholders who sold during that interval, 36.5 million shares came from private placement investors and only 15 million shares came from street holders.

     

    Over 70% of the available supply for the last 20 months has come from private placement investors. When the last willing seller runs out of stock, 70% of the supply will disappear in an instant.

     

    If the buy side continues to expect 50 million shares of selling but the sell side only wants to provide 15 million shares, the supply and demand implications are staggering.
    13 Jan 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4597) | Send Message
     
    Jakhurtz very well spoken. It is exactly the way I feel, with one caveat:
    What happens when the new shares hit the market..then our % goes down.
    This is why I mention that two things make a difference and really only #1 - who buys the new shares...if they are strong long term holders then I think the stock keeps on going higher with each announcement.
    because they are not going to sell anymore than I am, so therefore the float remains tight (same as it is now).
    That's how we go high enough for another exchange listing without a reverse split.
    13 Jan 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    John: I agree. Just bought another block for a hair under $0.50. I just don't think it will get much lower.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz: I agree with your sentiment. I wanted to talk about some of these issues in a note that I wrote yesterday, but it was getting way too long, but I would like to piggyback on your note to the new arrivals to this board.

     

    First, JP and some others pointed out some errors in my estimate for the pricing/valuing of new shares, notably the discount to “fair” value of 50%. I do think though that despite this, we should not get overly concerned about the potential increase in shares outstanding. I think the general feeling here is that 34m shares at $.50 is a conservative number and maybe 24m at $.75 might be more likely. In either case, we’re talking about a 25-34% increase in shares outstanding as the price for essentially solving the company’s financing problem. That’s the difference between the stock reaching $4 instead of $5 or $5.50. We’ll all be plenty happy in either case.

     

    What I wanted to say to the new folks is that the take away from my story that I wrote about yesterday was that I’ve followed John Petersen for roughly two years, reading pretty much every single one of his (literally) hundreds of articles. I also read the comment strings to his articles which usually have over 100 comments. Finally, I go through all the crap on the yahoo message boards reading the comments from JP, KT and a few others. When you see all the vitriol JP and KT have to put up with on the yahoo message board, it shows that they are dedicated to their cause.

     

    The point of all this is that after having read thousands of pages of his writings and also thousands of pages of other news in the field, I’ve formed a degree of respect and trust in John Petersen you don’t normally expect to develop for people in the financial field, especially someone you’ve never met. In addition to educating me on Axion, he’s also educated me to a significant degree on green energy and more specifically, energy storage. Also, by extension, I’ve built up a degree of trust in the executives of Axion. All of this, built up over time, gave me the confidence to add substantially to my holdings as the stock dropped further and further.

     

    To the new folks, yes, it is comforting to see all the people corresponding in the concentrator, but you really, really should take the time to go back through JP’s archive. While that might help you intellectually understand, I wonder how much it’s just a function of time to become a real “axionista” where you have the stomach to add to your holdings at very low price points. The opposite side of this coin is that, without this trust which takes time to develop, can a new person have the discipline to not sell out for a 50% gain realized in a matter of days, or maybe even a 200% gain realized in a matter of months?

     

    So, what it comes down to is that I think it will take time and a lot of work (fun and interesting work in my opinion) to take advantage of the learning opportunity JP has given us – for free. What I’ve come to realize is that making a lot of money from investing requires work. For you new folks, your going to need some degree of impulsiveness to jump in to the stock, but then also, incredible discipline (the opposite character trait) in order to hold on for the big score. It'll be hard to do. The good news is that if you've bought the stock, you have a little race: Can you get the work done before your itchy trigger finger hits the sell button?
    13 Jan 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Those are some of the kindest words I've ever read. Thank you very much for what I consider high praise. I couldn't do this if I didn't believe every word, but it's nice to know that others can see it too if they take the time to study, understand and double check the sources I use as reference materials.
    13 Jan 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    i've been reading JP articles since early last year, and the comments. the comments are a bit head on wall. to me anyone suggesting we replace oil consuming vehicles with rare metals consuming vehicles is not rational.

     

    i found the yahoo message boards late december and that coincided with my largest purchase to date of AXPW.

     

    it's comforting that (so far) AXPW approaches financing and press releases like a company that plans on sticking around. for me it's less of under promise and over deliver as it is setting realistic expectations and then executing.

     

    it is rare to actually find green tech that is this feasible, and has this many applications. this thing IS a game changer and in the world of chemistry that is no small feat.
    13 Jan 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Somewhat similar to a biotech with 5 or more drug candidates or "shots on goal" as they're sometimes called.

     

    We got a bunch of phase 3 trials going on :-)

     

    Although sometimes it feels like some phase 2 have appeared without any announcement of the phase 1 :-)
    13 Jan 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    From my perspective, getting the PowerCube up and running as a paying frequency regulation resource in the PJM grid without any prior leakage of information was a giant leap directly to phase 3.

     

    Of all the announcements I've seen out of Axion over the years, that was the biggest surprise for me because I know how hard it is to get something connected to the grid as a revenue generator.
    14 Jan 2012, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (784) | Send Message
     
    Please two questions:
    -.Let me know the better link that lists the principal shareholders of AXPW.
    -.How often the list updated?
    13 Jan 2012, 06:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Axion includes a principal stockholders list in its annual proxy statement. The most recent version is here - http://1.usa.gov/rscz7P - and the principal shareholders list is on page 6. The list won't be updated again before the summer.

     

    Tracking changes in the holdings of some holders like Quercus is easy because it has to file reports on Form 4 every time it sells shares.

     

    The funds are more difficult to track because you have to dig back into their SEC reports for current numbers. For example, the September 30th holdings report for the Special Situations funds is here – http://1.usa.gov/ulFZ8z

     

    Figuring out what individuals are doing is almost impossible.
    13 Jan 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Fun volume check: In the first two weeks of 2011 the volume was ~2.6M. So far this year it is about 5.5M not including today.
    13 Jan 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    You might want to double check that count jakurtz. My spreadsheet says January volume is 6,960,300 shares.
    13 Jan 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Holy guacamole, you are right, over 7M shares now. On track for 3x the volume.....again!
    13 Jan 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    UBSS offering 80K at .500? and much reduced volume today ...

     

    maybe no one wants to buy on Friday the 13th :-)
    13 Jan 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    The more likely dynamic is that the bottom feeders are all bidding $.48 ;-0
    13 Jan 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    hehehe right on... but I just changed to .49.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    LOL.... bid .4902... it's uncanny!
    13 Jan 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4597) | Send Message
     
    I will re-ask these Two questions:

     

    1. How long does it take to install the NS 999 battery refit? and has it been moved inside yet?
    2. Is the "modified Cube" version for the NS 999 or just over the road? or both?
    13 Jan 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    We had a rumor that the NS 999 was being moved into the Altoona shop in late December. The rumor originated on somebody else's Facebook page. Nobody has at Axion has said how long it takes to replace 1,080 batteries and install the new BMS. I'd expect the installation to require a matter of days or weeks, as opposed to months or years, but beyond that I couldn't venture an intelligent guess. Perhaps we'll learn more in the fullness of time.

     

    The PowerCube is a mess of batteries, control electronics and battery management software that have been installed in a semi-trailer. The NS 999 and road locomotives will simply use different containers (e.g. locomotive compartments) for the same basic technologies. If you want a PowerCube to behave like a yard slug, you tell the software to run it like a yard slug. If you want a PowerCube to behave like a road locomotive, you tell the software to run it like a road locomotive.

     

    This is not rocket science but the fact that the PowerCube is already providing frequency regulation services for PJM speaks volumes for its capabilities and flexibility because FR is one of the most demanding applications there is.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    I think the Navy installation, fed by solar(?) and substantially downsized, adds to the flexibility demonstration.

     

    If it's rules-based software driven, the flexibility is almost unlimited on that leg of the system: car, train, boat, oil well, ... define the new rules, download the table to an EEPROM (or flash memory - I'm way behind on the technology side) and you're ready for application X.

     

    'Course it could all be custom code, but that seems much less likely in today's environment.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    But the NS 999 is not a hybrid. Correct? Fully electric?
    If so, that is what caught my eye about Bang's above reporting of TG's recent comment that "A modified version of the (Cube) design is in the final stages of deployment in the hybrid locomotives market." With the key words being deployment and hybrid.

     

    Maybe reading to much into it, but if you take it at face value this must mean the road configuration that is a hybrid?
    13 Jan 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >anthlj ... The hybrid locomotive is the mainline, over-the-road freight hauler. Seems that the configuration will be a "B" unit that will be a PowerCube on wheels. I'm still not convinced this will be the popular in-service configuration but it is a good test bed.

     

    Now the interesting speculation is will this be NS or UP. There was mention of Axion talking to other roads, NS has been dragging their feet on the road unit. Most likely NS will continue tests but the eager beavers to adopt or pass-over this hybrid type seem to be located further West. There is still a 2 year window for the industry to make some serious decisions but battery power is most definitely coming to the rails.
    13 Jan 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Isn't most of (or at least large parts of) UP territory pretty flat? Guessing BNSF (Berkshire/Buffet) would be similar.

     

    I thought part of the appeal would be using the regenerative braking to recharge the batteries. Would there be much of that (or enough of that) in the "flyover" part of the country?

     

    I have no feel for once a freight train leaves say Chicago headed west how often it has to brake before it hits mountains. I suppose the engineers need a little break every now and then :-)

     

    NSC hauling lots of coal in the mountains seems to this uninformed person as the perfect candidate.
    13 Jan 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... UP operates in 23(?) states over 35k miles of track. I guess you could say most of it is "flat" (except for those bumps like the Rockies or Sierras) but there are hills in Kansas, New Mexico and such. Flat is a relative thing. In railroading there are three classes of grades; 0.8% to 1% is "light grade", 1% to 1.8% is "heavy grade", and anything greater than 1.8% is "mountain grade". [from Wikipedia, quote] On a 1% gradient (1 in 100 [ft]) a locomotive can pull half (or less) of the load that it can pull on level track. (A heavily loaded train rolling at 20 km/hr on heavy rail may require ten times the pull on a 1% upgrade that it does on the level at that speed.) [quote]. When your going the other way (down) brakes are handy to have.
    13 Jan 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • jvanwest
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    As a native New Mexican I have to butt in here! The Rocky mountains end in New Mexico with our tallest peak over 13,000 ft.! Large portions of the state from the center westward are mountainous, and compares little to the midwest.

     

    JVW :))
    13 Jan 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WTB: I've driven across our fair country a few times. The first time I was amazed how hilly is western Kansas. From there, you drive downhill into the Mile High City. I would have bet a $100 to get $10 that this was untrue, before I made the drive myself.

     

    If regenerative braking is supposed to work with cars in a flat town like Columbus, Ohio, I'm sure it will work equally well with trains. Even on flat ground, most trains have to slow down as they approach towns and cities. That braking will charge the PbCs, and be used to get the train back up to speed as the train leaves population centers. So, there is usefulness even on marble-top flat tracks, too.

     

    The key with the PcB is that before a train ever departs from where ever, the software will already be programed for every inch of the journey, every hill, every valley, every elevation nuance, to maximized diesel savings. The computer software will tell the engineer exactly what speed he/she is to maintain, at all times. And the computer will tell the batteries when to kick in, or recharge.

     

    It was really fun to have that explained to me when I was standing inside the PowerCube, because it just makes so much darned sense.
    13 Jan 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Trains also have to watch their speed on curves. So unless you have a straight shot and/or only *very* mild curves, there's also slowdowns for the curves (possibly).

     

    IIUC, there's, effectively, optimized programs that say speed up here, slow down there, etc. Some manual, I guess, maybe some programmed?

     

    All for safety and fuel-efficiency I think.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >jvanwest ... To a train the run from Clovis to Vaughn or Roswell to Vaughn and on to ABQ compares quite closely to the west side of Mississippi or the Dakotas. From ABQ/Santa Fe west is a whole different ride. Even the track passing through Santa Rosa is quite "Midwestern" but that is pushing it. Although the track that parallels Interstate 10 is the preferred transcontinental route with heavy & mountain grades for 300 miles but looks awfully flat in the car.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Very low volume this morning. Looks like it could be a base.

     

    However, I don't believe TG would want to take the risk of a retrace back down. So my SWAG is that there will some sort of news in the near future to solidify the price assention.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    If he's playing poker and suspects some bigger seller is still around, I think he waits until some lower point that's closer to when he wants to do the raise and the seller is either out of shares or otherwise stops selling and then starts a stream of releases to start a nice sustained higher-volume run-up.

     

    I suspect timing and sequence of moves will be an important consideration.

     

    Making moves to support price too soon could be a tactical mistake I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    I've known Tom Granville for over eight years and have never seen him make a decision based on its likely market impact. All companies establish milestones that they use to measure progress toward a goal. Unlike many companies, Axion only talks about its milestones when they're visible in the rear view mirror. It can be frustrating for those with trader DNA who are always looking for news and action, but it's a wonderful strategy for avoiding disappointments.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    I agree too soon would be a tactical mistake. But, if we retrace the gains made on the recent news then those become more irrelevant. Although not completely irrelevant because they all build on one another building confidence and eliminating the fear of bad news.

     

    In the past and in the future I am sure TG will lead based on what I have learned about his character makeup from you and others. I just think that at this point in time with needing capital for expansion that he has to have an eye on market price.
    13 Jan 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    No CEO of a public company ever ignores the market, but a smart one knows that he can't let the market tail wag the business dog. A really smart one keeps one eye on evolving business developments and financing requirements and times his actions to optimize both.
    13 Jan 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    I think some company officers let the sweet smell of bonuses based on stock price (stock options!) blind them to the longer term consequences. There is the market cap of the company and then there is the VALUE of the company. Only traders and company officers watching their options worry about the stock price on any given day.

     

    I like to think of myself as an investor, so I mostly watch the stock price if I have an entry point to buy or a target to sell. I go days without worrying about pps if I'm not close to those two numbers. It's fun to "keep score", but it is NOT what matters in investing. IMHO
    13 Jan 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Especially in the last year (and perhaps longer) when it seemed an amazing number of companies moved in lockstep regardless of which ones in a sub-sector was really doing better things. It almost made you want to give up on doing extensive research ... you felt like a chump for wasting your time.

     

    The widespread use of ETFs has been a big part of this problem.

     

    (and yes, I know that generally a large part of a large percentage of all stock's move is tied to what the overall market is doing.)
    13 Jan 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    wtb: As a STOCK buyer, I love the "lock step" price movement! Good stocks go on sale when the entire sector drops for some (perceived) reason that has nothing to do with the particular stock I'm buying. Volatility is good!

     

    I also get some great exit prices that otherwise wouldn't have happened as soon.
    Trading covered CALLS is also much nicer in choppy markets.

     

    13 Jan 2012, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    SHB: I have a biotech that I've been in a very long time and have shorted calls multiple times over the years as folks keep forgetting how long the time-line is to get approval for a drug. Impatient and unrealistically enthusiastic folks kept pushing prices up on some perceived "catalyst" that would come to fruition "soon".

     

    That's when I shorted calls. Also, when normal cyclical tops (as near as I could judge) were reached.

     

    For a long time it was in an uptrend about 7% a quarter and this routine probably put my cost basis much less than half of my entry price. Finally enough disappointments occurred that folks stopped pushing it and I've not seen an attractive price point since.

     

    So now I have to just sit and wait. But with a cost basis so low, it's not as difficult as if I'd not followed the strategy.

     

    Another strategy folks use is to short puts (may not be allowed in retirement accounts?) on stocks they don't mind owning at some very low price. Of course, that's not a hedge as much as it is a cost reduction strategy. And your powder is locked up to back the puts, so it's not always attractive for many folks.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    You can short puts in a ThinkorSwim IRA as long as you have the cash to make it good if the stock gets put to you.
    14 Jan 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Last time we saw this tight of a spread and long of a standoff was last Friday at ~.41 around 2pm and it never went below it. The following Monday morning it touched .40 for 11k shares and the rest of the week...well, you know what happened.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Jsss I can't get a nibble at .49 either.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Two trades, 80K, 15K a $0.50 just went by.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. another 38.5K, Bid/ask now $0.498/$0.505.
    13 Jan 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    the .50 was one of mine.
    13 Jan 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FPA: The bottomfeeding Ratatoiulle eating catfish remnants? Thank you for your support!

     

    I'm pretty sure we're seeing a firm bottom being put in yesterday and today. Iran and the EZ are the biggest threats to Axion pricing right now.
    13 Jan 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    so... my .498 order over/under on getting 12k filled?
    13 Jan 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    lol at .499 trade.
    13 Jan 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    You might have just got filled Tragicslip.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    got 10k sweet.
    13 Jan 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Excellent! My nephew just texted me that he got a couple of his pals in on Axion, too.

     

    New share ownership is spreading faster than a wheat fire in Kansas.
    13 Jan 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Maybe TG can issue the upcoming new shares thru a Maya-subscribed auction, right here. Now THAT would be 2012 cool.
    13 Jan 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    I'm sitting tight today. Looking forward to HTL's analysis of today's action.
    13 Jan 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • sonrisa777
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    I've read comments in these concentrators implying that TG could try to manipulate the price of the stock by keeping important announcements when it would suit the stock best. I always thought that news was news and if something like a sales or an important event happened, he couldn't keep it to himself and "wait for a good time" for the stock to say it. Isn't there some kind of obligation for him to reveal sales or important events when they happen?
    13 Jan 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    You're absolutely right that news is news. More importantly in Axion's case, the decisions about when news is news are usually made by the customer rather than Axion. I'm convinced that Tom has a very good feel for when pending projects will reach the point where they're news, but I believe most of those issues are out of Axion's control. They certainly were when I worked there.
    13 Jan 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    I can't speak for others, but that was not my intent. Some "news" that might not qualify as a material event could be waiting in the wings and not require disclosure.

     

    My thought was that if he had a choice a strategy that helps the stock price move in the most advantageous way for his capital raise would be good.

     

    As with any business activity, my guess is that using whatever tools you have to the best business advantage, as long as it's moral and legal, is the "right thing to do" as it is in the best interests of the company *and* its current shareholders, which IIUC, is where his responsibility lies.

     

    This is not any kind of deception, but it could certainly provide benefit to current holders and new holders. And that is moral.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    On the other hand, intentionally withholding non-material information that might increase the price received by an exiting stockholder would be questionable. Since the most honorable path is to disclose when disclosure is appropriate, that's the one Axion will follow.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    I have mentioned the possibility of withholding news. I don't know the legalities, but assume everything is performed legitimately.

     

    My thoughts are with the timing of the releases. My opinion is that the timing is controllable and strategic.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    News is often in the control of the customer. When it's not, controlling the release of news for strategic reasons is very dangerous.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Yep. Might have a trader that wants to flip today and investor who wants to sell at a higher price a few years out. Who you gonna take care of - maybe what's good for one is bad for the other.

     

    In my mind, it all gets murky. Since I tend to be more long-term oriented, I like to see things done that help the long-term view. So I would see something that makes the capital raise require fewer issued shares as good for the company and investors.

     

    To me traders are not relevant.

     

    Might be a wrong-headed view, but that's my take.

     

    Of course in the real world, the distinction between traders and investors may be moot - they all hold shares.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    They're all shareholders and entitled to the same protection under the law and good corporate governance. I prefer investors who are slow to buy and slow to sell, but it takes all types to make a market.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    My understanding is that there is a difference between PR releases and news releases. PR can be pretty much anything a company wants it to be and released at more or less any time within reason. News is news and is more dictated about who, what, when, where and why.

     

    The term "manipulating" the stock price is irrelevant because it implies he has control over what the stock does upon the release of News or PR. Everyone knows no one has control over what the stock price will do when information is made available. You might have a guess, but if you have not noticed guessing in the stock market is a bit of a losers game.

     

    Case in point PJM/Vridity news...didn't quite have the outcome some may have been expecting did it?
    13 Jan 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Let's take the Navy Building MiniCube case ...

     

    it's got 36 batteries in it ... is that Material News from an earnings standpoint?

     

    We all think it points to getting our foot in the door of a very big market, but who knows for sure if that will really happen.

     

    Anyway, that's the kind of story/PR that I think a CEO (I mean a generic CEO, not TG in particular) can have some influence on whether and when to release.
    13 Jan 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    There's a degree of latitude, but most of us who work in the securities field are pretty gun shy over the prospects of somebody filing a lawsuit that says "The market responded favorably to this disclosure and if I'd been told about the facts in a timely manner I wouldn't have sold for 20% less." I may be overly cautious, but a client that tried to strategically time press releases would scare me - a lot.
    14 Jan 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    Wow guys and gals..... good support at .49c!
    13 Jan 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    JP: I haven't seen anybody mention the EV WORLD article from the 11th but I just saw it. The founder Bill Moore is bashing you. Here is the part that I liked the most.

     

    "I think it's fair to say that Mr. Petersen's 'long position' in lead isn't going to realize him any profits in this life, not unless he bought really low and convinces some poor soul that advanced lead is the future. There are a lot of promising future battery chemistries out there, but he's about the only one I know of claiming lead is one of them."

     

    What a smuck!!!

     

    Keep telling it like it is and thanks for all you do. You have a lot of supporters here, there, and everywhere. 8-))

     

    Kent
    13 Jan 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (389) | Send Message
     
    I read the article you referenced, Kent, and it gets better! For instance...

     

    "How about just fewer cars? How about instead of one or more car's per person, as here in Great American Midwest, we shift to one car per ten people? "

     

    What a concept! Uh... Wait... Who is going to clean out the pizza boxes and chicken bones when they fill the back seat and I can't see out the rear window? Hmmm... I think I'll stick with the One Owner principal.

     

    You're right, this guys a putz.
    13 Jan 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    I'm always interested to read what others see as shortcomings in my analysis. Another recent example is a piece from my colleague Tom Konrad who decided to take me on over my house of card article on the per barrel cost of electric drive – http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Different perspectives are always valuable because I can only speak from the perspective of the shoes I stand in. That being said I do think that a lot of the writers who disagree with me don't recognize that they're knee deep in the mud.
    14 Jan 2012, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/ycRfd7

     

    Tesla has troubles, and the stock price got hit...

     

    Added AXPW at .49...
    13 Jan 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    "Peter Rawlinson, Palo Alto, California-based Tesla’s vice president and chief engineer, and Nick Sampson, director of vehicle and chassis engineering departed this month, Ricardo Reyes, a company spokesman, said in an e-mailed statement."

     

    This month? Talk about timing a release of news. And do it via e-mail? TG oughta take lil Elon out to the woodshed. Oops, the stk mkt's doing it for him.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Somebody cut the elevator cable!
    13 Jan 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Happened. AH trading up $1.28.
    13 Jan 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    That was a lot of money that just fluttered out of fairy land perhaps looking for truly green pastures to rest its weary head on. You know...a place where there is no debt, no hyped up expectations or bloated stock prices, just good old fashioned business execution with potential in multiple several billion dollar markets.
    13 Jan 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    Maya, "AH trading up $1.28. "

     

    ??
    13 Jan 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    TSLA: Holy Cow...getting worse into the close...Good grief.... tough being right, eh John?
    13 Jan 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    Tesla ... Don't fall so fast !!! I want the Exide-Tesla crossover in the upper teens ... please.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    opps... there goes 24 handle on TSLA
    13 Jan 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    I don't find any news that would make this world leading automaker to slip a mere $4 in under an hour. What's up?

     

    I also don't find any reason for Beacon to be up 50%.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    oooohhh, snap. Show that to Bill Whats-his-face over at EV world.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Bloomberg is reporting the loss of two key engineering team members.

     

    http://bloom.bg/x5qcga
    13 Jan 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    2 Director are leaving the company, according to trippleblack's tweet above...
    13 Jan 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    Puts anyone?
    13 Jan 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    I believe that the only corporate concern was that it may have been necessary to delay any big announcements until the massive selling was over (otherwise the good news would be "wasted"). Now that the selling is done, I don't think the timing is all that important. Nor do I think anything is being held back at this point.

     

    As we have discussed, the time period for any further financing moves that might be necessary is a ways out yet. I think we'll hear some sort of good news before that time. I'm not concerned.
    13 Jan 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    Oops. I meant to tag this to the end of the news-release discussion.
    13 Jan 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Fresh article re BMW and A123.

     

    http://aol.it/wmKB5R
    13 Jan 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Hmmmm, I averaged UP my AXPW holding yesterday.
    The day before I averaged DOWN my car from an old BMW to a very old Fiat Uno. (The tax on cars in Denmark is 200%, so we tend to drive in older cars :-) )
    Had to save money for the AXPW purchases.
    And I am getting addicted to keep an eye on this blog all evening.
    Will sell a (very) little AXPW around 3USD, a little more around 5USD. But the majority is waiting for 10USD or more depending on P/E , P/S and growth when that time comes.
    My core holding today is Novo Nordic (http://bit.ly/wpVl6A). Started establishing it in 1981 (yes 31 years ago). I am usually keeping my stocks all the way!
    13 Jan 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    "(The tax on cars in Denmark is 200%, so we tend to drive in older cars :-) )"

     

    What a lovely way to keep new, cleaner technology off the roads....
    13 Jan 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    Seems foolish on BMW's part from a technical perspective.

     

    But maybe not so foolish from a marketing perspective.

     

    Anyone buying a hybrid BMW isn't doing it to save money.

     

    These are the people who have enough green in their wallets that they can afford the green in their cocktail party conversations. Lithium ion just sounds sexier to a BMW-buyer than anything including the word 'lead'.

     

    This is the thing that has always concerned me about BMW being our most advanced testing stage automaker - their decisions are not entirely about the bottom line.

     

    I would rather hear that Toyota or Honda were in talks with Axion since their customers care more about the bottom line and that's where the PbC really shines.
    14 Jan 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Welcome aboard, Poul. Luck with the Uno...

     

    Checking over Novo Nordic...
    14 Jan 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget Ford...
    14 Jan 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    "(The tax on cars in Denmark is 200%, so we tend to drive in older cars :-) ).

     

    What a lovely way to keep new, cleaner technology off the roads...."

     

    Well, funny you should mension that. The government has made EVs tax free! Now they can almost compete with the other cars! But sales have been surpricing slow of Evs so far. (Not surprising for John, of course:-) ).
    14 Jan 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I posted this comment before reading JP's explanation on APC 48.

     

    Use of the A123 lithium ion in the BMW hybrid doesn't preclude the use of the PbC in the far more important BMW EfficientDynamics application.

     

    The EfficientDynamics group of technologies is for people who want to save both fuel and money.

     

    EfficientDynamics is where the PbC, with its dynamic charge acceptance profile and long cycle life, could really help BMW and its customers.

     

    Not to mention Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota and Hyundai's customers...

     

    D
    14 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (822) | Send Message
     
    Based on the chart of novo any other stocks you want to recommend?

     

    What is your return on Nvo?
    14 Jan 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    "Based on the chart of novo any other stocks you want to recommend?

     

    What is your return on Nvo? "

     

    The most interesting share I am invested in right now (besides AXPW) is Topotarget. Listed on the stock exchange in Copenhagen. TOPO.CO http://bit.ly/weP2T2 A small company betting everything on one single new cancer drug (Belinostat), that "may become the 3rd standard cancer drug". The right for North America and India have been outlicensed to Spectrum http://www.sppirx.com listed on Nasdaq.
    The risk: That Belinostat is not approved by FDA some time in 2013. TOPO only has money until medio 2013. (But they are working on many other indications.)
    The potential: 320 mio. USD in milestones from Spectrum + approx 20% in royalty of a double blockbuster. The value of the these 320 mio USD alone is 5 times the entire value of the company. The value of the potential annual! royaly is about 8 times the current value of the company. In addition there will be income from Europe, China, Japan etc.
    So in short: The price per share right now is 2.80 DKK (Danish kroner). I will sell a little on 25 DKK, and much more at 49 DKK.
    Here is a link to the closest there is to "John Petersen" on Topotarget: http://bit.ly/AajtX2
    There are many similarities in the risk/reward profiles of AXPW and TOPO. And this is the types of shares I like (I loose more often than I winn. But when I winn it is big :-) ). And just as many Axionistas have families that are tired of hearing about AXPW my family and friends are entirely feed up hearing about TOPO. However many of them have invested in TOPO :-) (TOPOs share price has been falling and falling for several years, just like AXPW. And I have been catching a falling knife all the way!).

     

    My return on Novo is about 30x.
    17 Jan 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    DRich> You recently said "The hybrid locomotive is the mainline, over-the-road freight hauler. Seems that the configuration will be a "B" unit that will be a PowerCube on wheels. I'm still not convinced this will be the popular in-service configuration but it is a good test bed."

     

    I get cold shivers when you throw cold water on Axion's batteries for the over-the-road freight hauler. Could you add some color to that statement - like what the problem is? Is it the batteries, the whole concept, or the B unit?
    13 Jan 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Every train has a "consist" of several locomotives pulling from the front. Some have a second "consist" in the middle or at the end.

     

    The NS Plan for the road locomotive is to have one or two diesel-electric locomotives mated to an all electric battery powered locomotive. The energy from all mated units will be channeled into the battery unit during braking events and the battery unit will primarily be used as a power boost for acceleration and hill climbing. That's a typical A-B or mother-slug configuration. It's certainly the easiest and cheapest retrofit for the cost conscious.

     

    I suspect DRich would rather see a single locomotive that has both diesel and electric drive like the GE Ecoimagination series. With the low energy density of the PbC, I'm not sure there's enough room for both a diesel gen-set and a battery system in a single unit.
    13 Jan 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Bring back the concept of a coal car, but make it a battery car :)
    13 Jan 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    That's the basic idea. Now just for fun take a fleet of 24,000 locomotives nationwide and convert a third of them to electric using 1,600 to 1,700 PbC batteries per retrofit.

     

    That could keep a small company in Skittles for a long time.
    13 Jan 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the new CPST turbines (new materials, better rotor sealing, higher efficiency) would be the ticket. Could probably get it all on one engine, no sweat.

     

    *Much* smaller and lighter than diesels but right now not quite as fuel efficient. OTOH, much quiter and greener with *no* expensive after-treatment and 99.99% percent uptime, once-a-year scheduled maintenance (might have to add one, depending on how nasty the environment - fuel and air filters need changing) and an overhaul at 40K-80K hours - much less frequently than a diesel. "Overhaul" is mostly replace injectors and check turbine to be sure it's still in specs (long-lived as air bearing minimizes shaft wear).

     

    Can run on almost any liquid or gaseous fuel (selected at time of order) and multi-fuel is under development.

     

    A good dream for me: CPST and AXPW both selected by NS, but not likely I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I like the green ones.
    13 Jan 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Am I right in thinking that a PowerCube stuffed into a locomotive shell given a volume discount of say $800K * 8,000 retrofit units would equate to about $6.4Billion?

     

    If the above numbers are even close it sounds just fine to me.
    13 Jan 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (822) | Send Message
     
    Anybody know the useful life of a loco?

     

    My understanding of the industry is that old loco go to the yards upon upgrades to the OTR fleet so even when looking at a new PbC yard loco you have to compare it to a loco that probably has no value so its batteries + build vs fuel saved as the body is already accounted for @ $0.
    13 Jan 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz & JP .. It is not just me that would rather see a genset. "B" units disappeared for a very practical reason. They were popular in the early days of diesel electrification and are still used today. Early on they were used to add H.P. to trains and were seldom separated. As power increased in "A" units, fewer "B"s were needed on a constant basis. With no cab and independent controls they were put in storage or reassigned to what they do today, train specific pusher (auxiliary) power for grade work in the Alleghenies, Tehachapi Pass and such. They became a logistical headache of limited use. Better to lash up "A" units as needed and have a useful unit when separated.

     

    I'm not saying my thinking is right. John is correct that there is not enough room on many locomotives of the size of a SD40 or GP38 and smaller but on a Dash 8 or SD70 or larger, there might be. If an Axion equipped genset can live with something less than a 16 or 24 cylinder 3k to 6k+ motor and a generator the size of a SUV, then "A" unit gensets will rule. I'm just thinking in terms of utility that doomed the original "B" units.

     

    Now I didn't mean to give you cold shivers, so here is something that an all battery "B" unit would excel at. Westinghouse has been working for years on a retrofit to railcars to capture regen braking power. This would mean a reduction in required H.P. in locomotives (braking require H.P. to maintain control, kinda like a canoe in the rapids needs excess power from oars to overcome the water). I believe they have tested working prototypes in the field already. Trouble is; What do you do with all that energy? Can't really put dynamic resistors on the railcars. Enter the Axion filled "B" unit. Maybe even fulfill HTL's dream of a Capstone/Axion genset "A" unit (if Capstone can build a 3k+ unit because redundant power will still be wanted).
    13 Jan 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    And then there is the issue of NS' patent (pending) on their diesel-less design. I can guarantee you there will be some locomotives with batteries and a donkey engine if the price of a NS icense is high.

     

    kt
    13 Jan 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Kirk Tierney ... Nothing I've seen would suggest that conversion from diesel to battery would be any more expensive than a typical 10 years overhaul.
    13 Jan 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    DRich: "... a 3k+ unit because redundant power will still be wanted)"

     

    ?

     

    HP? Kw?

     

    I'm guessing HP. That would be done by ganging, similar to what is done now. C200 x 5 = 1MW C1000 inside a standard ISO cabinet.

     

    Vaguely recalling the conversion ratio for Kw to HP, it would take an awful lot I think and might not save space (how big is one of those 3k?). It would save weight and have the other benefits though.

     

    The new products, which should be approaching about a year out now, is a C250 and compound C370 (dual stage - much better performance at altitude and elevated temperatures). The C250 size will be the same, I'm unsure of the C370 ATM.

     

    I'm *guessing* getting a couple of MWs on-board would be no problem. Per an online conversion, that would give 2,682 HP. With the new C250 in the cabinets, that would 2.5Mw = 3352.6 HP.

     

    But if they fit in the same cabinet space, a 4 x C370 would do better because of the extra compression. That would be 2.96Mw = 3969 HP.

     

    All guessing since I don't know what space is available. But I can get the C1000 cabinet size from the CPST site - all I know is it's an ISO "standard" size.

     

    There should be a substantial weight savings.

     

    Hm, there might be other gains available. Any possible use for the waste heat? In stationary applications that pushes total efficiency into the 90% range, IIRC. Chillers, heat exchangers, power another device, ...

     

    Oh! Direct the exhaust ahead of the train in ice/snow conditions to clear the rails! ;-)) ~ 400 degrees F IIRC..

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    8,000 locomotives x 1,600 batteries x $250 per battery = $3,200,000,000.

     

    Wow, I'm not sure I can compute how many skittles that would be.
    Hard to Love,
    I need your mathematical help here.

     

    But don't mind my prattle. I just know that it equals $37 per share of income.
    13 Jan 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Isn't the C250 rated at 250kW? I think you used 2,500kW (2.5MW) in your 9:13PM email.

     

    Or I'm hallucinating again. Too much red pepper in the chili ;-)
    13 Jan 2012, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >SHB ... Should cut back on that stuff and try New Mexican Green Hatch chiles.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Are Green Hatch chiles any relation to green chili sauce? Probably not. New Mexico does seem to be the fount of all chili diversity ;-)
    I have a pot of the Texas variety planned for tomorrow. Cold weather and all that. Well, cold for central Texas. Barely "coat weather" for the New England residents.
    14 Jan 2012, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >SHB ... Not even close. You really owe it to yourself to travel to New Mexico and get asked the universal restaurant question; Do you want that with Red or Green on that? Always take the Green. Those chiles grown around Hatch are unique and some the best I've ever had. I usually buy 50 lbs. each year, have them shipped to me wherever I am and they disappear in no time.
    14 Jan 2012, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    When I look at PowerCube and locomotive applications, I mentally break them down into two pieces – the power control systems that are made by somebody else and the batteries that are made by Axion.

     

    A couple weeks ago I wrote an article that explained how the power control part costs about $400,000 per KW while the energy storage part costs about $350,000 per kWh. Until we know different, I think its safe to assume Axion's margin on the power control system will be much lower than its margin on the energy storage system. To keep my thinking very simple, I ignore power control revenues and only tote the batteries.

     

    The NS 999 uses 1080 batteries while the road locomotive will use 1,600 to 1,700 batteries. If we assume a battery cost of around $250 in bulk, then a yard slug retrofit would be worth ±$270,000 while a road locomotive would be worth ±$450,000. Since NS has its own facilities that can do all of the necessary integration, it won't surprise me if they buy the power control systems directly from other suppliers and only rely on Axion for the batteries.

     

    Even at a half million per, 8,000 retrofits would be a nice number.
    14 Jan 2012, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Locomotives last for a very long time because they go into the shop for complete rebuilds every ten years or so. A quick google search for "norfolk southern locomotive fleet age" without the quotation marks shows that average age of the NS fleet is 16.8 years, compared to 15 years for BNSF, 14.8 years for Union Pacific and 17,7 years for CSX.

     

    As near as I can tell, the rebuild cost as a battery electric isn't that much different from the rebuild cost as a diesel-electric, although DRich may have a better handle on those numbers.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Revenue, Futurist, revenue. Correct? Once I got my air back I realised there might be a difference... wait, it's late. There is a difference, right? But even if it's gross revenue and not earnings, that's still a mess of skittles for sure. If those retrofits were spread over say 10 years, that's 800 a year, no mean feat... and would be $3.70 in sales per year per share.. so even if we sold for a conservative 0.5 x sales that's a floor of $1.85 per share just on railroad sales alone.. Now what did jakurtz say?... oh yeah, "Holy guacamole"
    14 Jan 2012, 03:35 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Football and chilli...I like it SH! Tebow time!

     

    (You are in New England? Sorry, I would just really get a kick out of that kid winning again. Perhaps, his yards per pass will give us a new scripture that will reveal some type of plan for 2012.)
    14 Jan 2012, 04:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    AH, SHB. I started working w/2MW (two C1000 cabinets with 5 C200s in each). I failed to state two cabinets again (2 x 5 x 250MW).

     

    So you didn't miss anything but the non-repeated. Certainly understandable at that time of night.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    DRich: if those are some of the one's my uncle Johnny gave me once, you should offer SHB a first aid kit and warning sign.

     

    As a kid in Phoenix I used to brag about how I could wolf down jalapenos no problem. My uncle, who worked at White Sands, must of got tired of it and brought me a teeny-tiny one and said "Here, enjoy".

     

    I took it in one gulp.

     

    4-alarm fire doesn't come near describing it.

     

    I don't know what it's called, but I sure have avoided teeny-tiny ones ever since.

     

    As I got older, learned to use peppers as seasonings rather than demonstration projects and have enjoyed them much more ever since.

     

    BTW, it was green. But I'm sure it's not normally used in the green salsa and I always do take the red - used sparingly.

     

    I hear that milk helps cut down on the magnitude and duration of the burning.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >HTL ... Chili's been a staple of my diet since childhood. The New Mexican Hatch Chili (Green is my preference on eggs, burritos) is about 10-12 inches long & rather mild. Ruffly the same heat as something between the Mild-Medium "Pace" brand (which means no heat at all) you'll find at the grocery but a little sweeter. The Red is about the same heat level but a little less sweet and more and my preference on chicken & tacos.

     

    Just from life experience, I find that if you make the mistake of catching your mouth on fire, eat some bread or anything starchy. Never use anything with water in it.
    14 Jan 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    We saw some discussion in the last few months about switching to 30HT form factors in some PowerCubes.

     

    1) Is there a danger that a switch might be made that delays the locomotives rollout as another testing interval (or software tuning?) is required?

     

    2) If that were to happen, how might that affect some of profit estimates we've been making?

     

    3) if a switch were made, do the volume estimates required to do the job change in any meaningful way? Could changing the form factor mean we could either build a more powerful locomotive in roughly the same space, or a cheaper one using less space?
    14 Jan 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... Good questions. I don't think No. 1 would be much more than racking. No. 2 & 3 I have no clue but wonder about also.
    14 Jan 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    But the fuel savings would be the real deciding factor wouldn't it? I posted an article recently about how in harsh winters they leave them running (and disturbing the neighbors) even when they're not using them just to keep the fuel from freezing. Throw in the Green Publicity (and EPA regulations ???) and it seems like you've got quite a case building.

     

    Now to put solar collectors on these puppies :-) Didn't I read somewhere about Solar Paint and Solar Shingles? We'd have a Green-gasm!
    14 Jan 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    If the railroads can do as much work with two diesel-electrics and one battery unit as they currently do with three diesel-electrics the greengasm will be eye watering.

     

    A string of solar panels a mile long and 8 feet wide would cost a well over a million dollars and generate a maximum of 600 kW during peak insolation; a figure that's roughly equivalent to 1/7 of a diesel-electric for 1/4 of a work-day.
    14 Jan 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Whenever I head to Phoenix or Houston I take an extra suitcase to load up on goodies like Hatch Green and Habanero Jack that are just not available in the spice-free zones of central Europe. Amazon is my favorite on-line shopping destination, but Paul Prudhomme's spice shop – http://bit.ly/wdQh08 – is a close second. Their ground chipotle is definitely worth the air-freight.
    14 Jan 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... Capturing the braking energy of the railcars themselves would be far greater than any solar array. Railcar regen systems (properly referred to as Kinetic Energy Recovery) are rumored to be under development. I ran across a link to Wabco but it no longer works so I'll post one if I find one. Such a system would require a lot more Axion (or GE molten salt) batteries and smaller diesel engines.
    14 Jan 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Ah, I was in the middle of posting this:

     

    Anyone have a quick summary of regenerative braking w.r.t. locomotives and trains?

     

    Would these brake changes be part of the locomotive rebuild, and if so, what are the cost ranges for "parts and labor?"

     

    Do the new model locomotives already have it, and are they totally using the power generated for that locomotive?

     

    What about new cars of various types ... do they have it?

     

    Just wondering if there are other power sources on the rest of the train and whether there would have to be any change in coupling "wiring" to take advantage of it.

     

    If you have a varying number of cars with such capability, it seems to add a layer of software complexity (and testing) into the composition of trains.

     

    Hard to Love ... got a new challenge for you :-)

     

    Off to the Google machine :-)

     

    and first up: http://bit.ly/zUU7h6

     

    with flywheels!!!!
    14 Jan 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL: The fat content in milk neutralizes the "hot" recepters in one's mouth. But don't swallow the milk. I had the same experience once, where I wanted to wrap my mouth around a gushing fire hydrant. Wish I knew the milk idea, then.
    14 Jan 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    I'm with you on that, DR: Let's examine it, based on the conversion to electric vs overhaul.

     

    a) Take out the diesel engine and its heat exchanger, tankage and the fuels lines. (Common to both)

     

    b) Take out the dynamic braking heat exchanger and its heat sink. (Common to both)

     

    c) Overhaul the diesel engine and its heat exchanger, tankage and the fuels lines completely or
    c) Put battery racking and wiring in and seal the diesel heat exchanger vent panels.

     

    d) Replace the cab engine control system. (Common to both)

     

    e) Re-install the dynamic braking heat sink system or
    e) Install the DC power control and BMS system.

     

    f) Re-install the diesel engine and its heat exchanger, tankage and the fuels lines or
    f) Install the batteries.

     

    g) Commission and run-up. (Common to both)
    14 Jan 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Matouk's Calypso Hot Sauce, from Trinidad, is in my opinion the best in the world.

     

    Here's how one can obtain some:

     

    http://bit.ly/xzBXNX
    14 Jan 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... Geez, so many questions and simple answers would run into multi-page length responses. Off to the Wiki for a quick summary for regen brakes. Railcars & locomotives are built & maintained by complete separate companies. Locos use regen brake power to add resistance through the prime movers and the excess is vented to atmosphere as fan cooled, resistance heaters. The railcars are a good source of energy but the problem is not the varying length of the train (software complexity (?), I don't know) but the break in continuity of the system. By train ordering (where each car is to be delivered determines where it is in the train) older and newer cars will get mixed up and over time the new technology will become "lost" to the dispatchers & conductors. Unit trains, like coal drags, that never get broken up would be the first place to implement.
    14 Jan 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >KirkTierney ... You left out the generator refurbishment (which, I believe happens ever 2-3 years & rebuilt every 5). If the battery system proved out to be reliable, a smaller diesel could be the future because the need for horsepower is in the start/stop.
    14 Jan 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    WTB: "Hard to Love ... got a new challenge for you :-)"

     

    I assume you mean the software? No sweat. Using a basic assumption, which shouldn't be far off, just another couple tables over which rules operate.

     

    Much of this data is probably already captured or available on paper, so ...

     

    Each type of, and specific, car's characteristics can be described in a table. This might be manual input or (in the future?) captured from an RFID-like chip that sends data along industry-standard connections (maybe even wireless? Range would be a factor.) and using industry-standard protocols.

     

    Add in load-related data. That should allow the basic calculations needed to control everything. Overlay with some monitoring capability to detect malfunctions, deviations from expected behavior and pre-defined corrective actions, including in some cases "Park That Sucker".

     

    Naturally, the speaking of it is much easier than design, code and test (simulation) & debug, verification of expected operation and real-world testing and modification, and implementation.

     

    But since much of it depends on already-known factors, a bunch of OTS (off-the-shelf) parts and software along with possibly some small number new/custom things, it should be both an economically and technically feasible project with an excellent rate of return for the effort. Of course, the first step is to get the bean counters and engineers together to do a preliminary feasibility upon which a go/no-go decision could be made.

     

    I suspect that a major consideration might be related to maintenance requirements on the cars. With some new stuff on board for the communication/control functions and wheels somehow attached to generators/motors (yes, with enough electrical capacity they could just as well be part of the motive system - might be some large gains there in acceleration, slippery conditions, climbing hills, ...), there should be some (more?) rigorous inspection and maintenance procedures. Some could be automated through the use of sensors with diagnostic software, but other stuff would need a wrench applied I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    John, I'm in Phoenix... let me know the next time your in town. You've got a free dinner at Oreganos (Tempe) comin' your way!
    14 Jan 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Well, it's wasn't late at night when I wrote "2 x 5 x 250MW".

     

    I should've written "2 x 5 x 250KW".

     

    Apoplectic apologies to you! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    I've got a mother and three brothers in the neighborhood, so I hope to get through later this year.
    14 Jan 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    ;-))
    14 Jan 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Yes,
    I meant gross income. Figure 30% gross profit less the administrative and marketing cost for net income. It was late. Sorry for making you gasp.
    14 Jan 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    I can't believe that every Axionista is a pepper lover like myself. Hot, mild, sweet, or spicy. Just let me try it. That is all I ask.
    My friend grows 17 different varieties and makes the most delicious chili powder ever produced on earth. Simply heavenly. But Pepper Patty doesn't sell it. Just gives it away to her friends.
    I can be very friendly to a person like that.
    14 Jan 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    True. Fortunately it is common to both. (I bet we have only half the list, but if they are common-to-both things, your point is made. When their shops refurb these locomotives, they might as well convert them, since, if used in a diesel-electric locomotive string, it pays for itself in just a few years, and yet costs no more than a refurb that they must do anyway.

     

    Assume 1 in 5 locomotives will be converted (is that sane?), and that they have a rebuild every 10 years, so rebuilds are the ones converted. Assume 1500 batteries per conversion (mostly long haul units). What rate of business is that between NS and Axion?

     

    kt
    14 Jan 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >KirkTierney ... The ~1500 is the number for mainline units. These are not even a reality yet. Right now we're talking switchers, only.

     

    This is a link to a comment I made on this very subject. Tell me what you think and where I might be wrong.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    14 Jan 2012, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (822) | Send Message
     
    It seems to me that a generator refurb (between 2-5 years) would be like a heavy check on an aircraft where the 10 year check would be like a major check for airlines.

     

    Airlines maintenace usually goes 18 months (A-check), 36 months (Heavy check) and 60 months (Major check). The 18 month check is usually for 3-5 days and basically checks/replaces everything that moves. The 3 year check does that plus all wiring is review and is usually 7-10 days in length and the major check basically strips the entire plane and takes 3-4 weeks.

     

    When A/C started adding winglets they originally thought it would only schedule on major checks but after 1 year of operation they moved up the schedule as the fuel savings were better than modeled. I hope to see a similar uptake in the rail segment.
    14 Jan 2012, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    I bought some Jan13 $12.50 puts on TSLA a few months ago. Right now I am feeling only compassion for Teslans who have mocked AXPW, and not even a touch of Schadenfreude...I swear.
    13 Jan 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    No man is an island Renzo. "Ask not for whom the bell trolls... " I mean tolls... I swear. :)
    13 Jan 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    I haven't looked for the filing yet, but DJ Says Quercus filed 316.5K shares @ $0.51 sold on Form 4.

     

    Reported dates were 1/9-1/13/12.

     

    At Last! They're getting a decent (relatively) price.

     

    You know I had been muttering to myself the last few days there was a big seller in and I also said they're acting pretty smart about it. But I had doubts because of the big run up.

     

    Off to find the form.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/zbnoR5
    13 Jan 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Wasn't in the mail. Went to edgar.

     

    Well, found only a 144/A amendment filed with a date of 12/28/2011 - we've seen this already? Ditto for Axion.

     

    Checked Gelbaum, nada as of 19:58.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Also see on DJ, 1/9 date 201K @ $0.39 sold 1/5-1/6/2012 and a 1/5 380K @ $0.28 12/28/11-1/4/12.

     

    Why we didn't get 'em?
    13 Jan 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Go to my link above.

     

    Click on the underlined "view" to the far right side for each date in question and you will see the Form 4s but they don't have the 144s there.
    13 Jan 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Yep. After you posted it I remembered that you had posted it before and I had already bookmarked it.

     

    One of my two remaining brain cells is apparently on hiatus! I've fixed that though - made a new subfolder that has nothing but Edgar and that site in it - nothing like a visual reminder to offset declining or overloaded faculties.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2012, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, wtb. 316,500 shares disposed of this past week.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    The Form 4 is up on Edgar – http://1.usa.gov/xqN1CY
    14 Jan 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    So at this pace, they're pretty much done, out, kaput, nada, in 10 more weeks tops? That will be a big change for us. These coming ides of March would seem to be most portentious, indeed...
    13 Jan 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    481086: NO is the answer. The correct answer is even better. I posted a similar comment recently (and I will expand on it) explaining that if Quercus files an amended 144/A, they can add 1,043,000 to the 850,000 that was listed on the 144/A filed 12-28. The 144/A was filed on 12-28 but Quercus started selling against it on 12-19 (late filing? must be OK but puzzles me). This form 4 filed today proves an amended 144/A is coming (predicted that yesterday in a comment to Bang) because the total sales by Quercus reported on form 4s filed by Quercus from 12-19 till today (1,142,500) is well over the original 850K on the 12-28 144/A filing covering the next 90 day period.

     

    Assuming they amended the 144/A to the max number of shares they can sell in this 90 day period, they have 750,500 left to sell by March 17 2012.

     

    So the real answer is, if the current sales volume for the first 2 weeks of 2012 continues, they should be done with the available shares they have to sell around the end of January and can't file to sell more until March 17th. Almost 2 full months w/o Quercus providing liquidity. Wonder how that will play out? At that time they will be able to file a new 144/A for the remaining shares they have left because the higher volumes would mean the rules limiting the number of shares they can sell during the next 90 day period is more then they have left. 8-))

     

    Kent
    13 Jan 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    I made the prediction to my ever skeptical wife that I love dearly, that February 8th, 2012 would be the day she loves AXION. Of course she has already claimed the $.31 shares I bought a couple of weeks ago. I told her the ones purchased in 2009 were just as valuable.

     

    In any event I can't see a mid February stock price at a level close to where it is today.
    13 Jan 2012, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    Kent, are we sure that Quercus remains constrained in its share sales and obligated to file Form 4, 144, etc.? With respect to shares outstanding (http://bit.ly/zbnoR5 -thanks wtb), Quercus now holds 2,530,350 shares outright (2.96% of reported shares outstanding). Unless warrants are counted as part of insider holdings, Quercus no longer holds 5% or more of the company..
    13 Jan 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    D>: I had this discussion about the 144/A rules with JP via a few emails a few or more days back. JP agreed with my numbers. IIRC JP said they didn't have to file the form 4s but they still do (hope I am not wrong on that). I don't know about what they are actually required to file but I am sure JP can clear it up for us.
    I am sure as I can be about the numbers after going back and forth with JP but I am getting old.
    Kent
    14 Jan 2012, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Last week was monster volume and as of today the four week average trading volume is 3.25 million shares. If Quercus files an amended Form 4 next week they'll be able to add 2.4 million shares, which is very close to everything they have left in common stock.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    The beneficial ownership rules require stockholders to include shares they own and shares they are presently entitled to acquire when calculating whether they're a 10% stockholder. Since Quercus has 2.5 million common shares and 10 million presently exercisable warrants, it owns 12.5 million out of a diluted 95 million shares, or more than 10%.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    John, I guess your saying that they can use the four weeks avg volume for the four weeks prior to the amended 144/A they must file and not the original four weeks avg volume prior to the original 144/A filed on 12-28?

     

    If that is the case they will not be around much past the end of Q1.

     

    thanks John

     

    Kent
    15 Jan 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    It's unclear whether the trading volume limitation is fixed when the original filing is made or when the amended filing is made. If the original filing date controls, the 90 day limit is 1,967,525 shares. If the amendment filing date controls, the 90 day limit is 3,249,150 shares. The available SEC phone interpretation on the issue says:

     

    "A holder of restricted securities files a notice on Form 144 reporting the proposed sale of less than the full amount of securities that could be sold under the volume tests of Rule 144(e). During the same three-month period, the holder determines to make further Rule 144 sales in an amount that, taken together with the original sales, would not exceed the maximum number of securities that could have been sold at the time of the notice. By filing an amendment to the Form 144, the holder can proceed with the additional sales."

     

    If I was representing a client in this kind of matter, I'd probably call for clarification.
    15 Jan 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    John, something of a different question on SEC regs and restricted security sales. Could Axion use its active shelf registration (expires March 15?) to de-restrict the potential shares underlying Quercus's 10 million warrants and immediately "monetize" them?
    15 Jan 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Thanks again John. I stand by my numbers as posted before because quote "During the same three-month period, the holder determines to make further Rule 144 sales in an amount that, taken together with the original sales, would not exceed the maximum number of securities that could have been sold at the time of the notice". I read that as the limit is the 4 week volume avg prior to the original 144/A filing.

     

    Let me state a fact. We know Quercus is still selling and an amended 144/A filing is coming.

     

    We will know soon enough how much more they will sell this quarter whether it is my number 1,043,000 (pulled from Scottrade volume charts) added to the original 850,000 or JPs' 1,117,525 or 2,399,150 added to original 850,000, IMHO all the additional added shares will be sold this quarter if the volume holds up. Quercus will either have approx. 1.5 mil or 100K left next quarter and will be done quickly.

     

    Nothing to worry about here. But I am a little curious about what will happen to the volume when they are done selling since last time they paused SS jumped in head first to fill the gap and SS is irrelevant now. 8-))

     

    Kent
    15 Jan 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    KentG> JP definitely has a point in suggesting consultation with SEC. The text, "During the same three-month period, the holder determines to make further Rule 144 sales in an amount that, taken together with the original sales, would not exceed the maximum number of securities that could have been sold at the time of the notice". is ambiguous with respect to the specific notice referenced with "at the time of the notice." Is it the first one or the most recent?

     

    Tying the volume restriction to the original filing views security markets as far more static than tying to the amendment filing date which would permit recognition of change in market dynamics.
    15 Jan 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Unless we have a few additional sellers out there in the weeds, the difference between shares originally available for sale and shares previously sold is just too close to count. There are always unknowns when a significant percentage of the holders are just normal folk that don't have any reporting obligations. I can say with a good deal of confidence that the tipping point is near, but we won't see the tipping point until after it's passed.
    15 Jan 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Even if they couldn't do that directly, I would think Axion *could* use some of the proceeds raised to then approach quercus and offer to buy back the warrants. Circuitous route, but more or less the same outcome..
    15 Jan 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Kent, just the kind of expansion I needed, and was kind of fishing for, thanks much. So I wonder if they hit it hard these last couple of days on the runup to try to raise enough cash to then be able to wait-- throttle it back, until the price recovers so that they can again try to sell another big block on a runup... I know they've been responsible sellers, but it would seem that now, as they're getting closer to the bottom of their own barrel, and they obviously very much need the funds generated, that they would employ just about any reasonable maximization strategy that they have, in order to get the most out of the remaining and dwindling shares... especially now that Special Sits is out of the picture and Quercus' own lone (?) hand on the throttle will have that much more salutory effect...
    13 Jan 2012, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    481086: They could stop but I doubt they will for now. They will have to stop one way or another. IMO they will sell all available for this 90 day period. Just wait till they stop selling, it will get crazy, volume has to drop.

     

    I just hope that the shelf buyers hold those shares tight.8-)).

     

    Kent
    13 Jan 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way to the next Concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 Jan 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Dirtdauber
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    I have now joined SA, having discovered these concentrators earlier this year. I have been a shareholder since Oct 09, and have been avidly reading JP's SA articles on Yahoo Finance's news; these have been very helpful to me, as I like to know more about start-up companies than is usually put in PRs thanks much, John. Thanks also to Maya and the other SA other commenters for your research and willingness to share.

     

    Maya, I believe we met at the AGM on 20 Jul 11. I was the white-haired Texan who told you I RARELY post on message boards.

     

    I do have a few things that might be of interest. My apologies if any of this has been posted before.

     

    ROBOTIC LINE Although there are 11 Epson robots in the line, there are not 11 steps in the process; at least one step (the first one) are slower than others, so 2 robots have the same task -- there might be other(s).

     

    After the 15 Nov CC, I talked with TG about the line. He said that the 2 robots that are not up to speed are close. The line was producing more than they needed, with the excess being stockpiled. The second line will be Gen 2A, but the third and later lines will be Gen 3, which will have a few (more?) design changes.

     

    JP has commented convincingly about the key role of industrial engineering in bringing a product to a point where it can be
    considered commercial. It seems to me that the design for Gen 2A will not be complete until the Gen 2 line is fully up to speed. And, I have difficulty believing that a large customer (especially an auto maker) would commit to this battery until they have a firm schedule for the addition of however many new lines that are needed to provide the essential manufacturing capacity of the carbon electrodes, which requires a final design for Gen 2A. I expect that getting the Gen 2 line up to speed will be an event that will so significant, so important that it will require an announcement. I am convinced it will happen (added >40% to my holdings @ $0.30), and I am waiting impatiently for it. Any thoughts by others, or more up-to-date info to the contrary?

     

    POWER CUBE. With respect to similarities of cube testing to testing for NS, keep in mind that the two systems seem to have only the BMS in common (TG has said the the technology for the batteries & the BMS are Axion's, and the rest is Norfolk's), and there is at least one key difference between the cube and NS versions of the BMS. The cube strings have 40 batteries, that produce 480 to 572 volts (12 to 14.3 v per battery); whereas the NS strings have 54 batteries in 3 pans of 18, producing 648 to 772 v.

     

    It is interesting that none of the illustrations of the cube that I have seen show the BMS. During the cube part of the tour after the AGM, nearly everyone else was in the power/control area with the tour guide, but I was on the battery side of the door with the VP Corporate Development. The battery racks had 6 shelves, with 8 batteries on each of the lower 5 shelves; the top shelf was occupied by cables & a large electrical module. Atop each battery was a small electrical module (about 3/4" by 2" by 4") that was connected to the battery terminals by solid copper wires and to the upper module by a data ribbon about 0.5" wide. I assume that these 2 modules constitute the BMS. I was told that the BMS can make minor adjustments to current flow for each battery, and if any battery gets out-of-spec, the BMS will shut down that rack of batteries and send a messages to on or off-site operator (s) and/or to Axion to replace that specific battery.

     

    I saw several racks of AGM batteries (about 3 or 4 racks?) & the VP said they had initially thought they were needed, but had since found that they are not. All of the batteries were in 30HT (tall) cases.
    15 Jan 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29563) | Send Message
     
    Great to have you on board DD.

     

    The strength of these concentrators is the collective knowledge of the participants. I know a ton about history and business strategy, but am fuzzy on the details since 2008. Those who have been to New Castle know lots of things that others don't, although they may not understand the importance of what they know until it's combined with somebody else's knowledge. When you add the compulsive data miners to the mix and start drawing lines between the dots, the picture is far clearer.

     

    Over the last few months I have learned several amazing things from the work of others. I truly appreciate everything.
    15 Jan 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    What a cool post.

     

    kt
    16 Jan 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    DirtDauber: Good information and welcome.

     

    Maya will likely respond when his emotional trauma over the recent football games subsides! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jan 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dirtdauber: Welcome to the Axion Concentrator. I do remember you!

     

    After the lastest conference call debacle, TG called me. We talked about those last two robots having "dwell time" issues. The short is that each robot was experiencing difficulty in knowing what it's neighbor was doing.

     

    As TG explained to you, he also explained to me that this was no longer an issue. He also talked about the Gen2A and the Gen 3.

     

    Question: On June 20, I saw the HT30 in action, inside the PowerCube, along with PbCs. But I was under the impression that the HT30s had been removed and replaced with PbCs at the Nov. 28 Viridity/PJM unveiling. Everything else you wrote I believe is spot on.

     

    Hopefully, I will see you again this June. Guessing the attendees will be a bit more numerous than last year!
    15 Jan 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3929) | Send Message
     
    Welcome indeed. Thanks for the info. "..., I talked with TG about the line. He said that the 2 robots that are not up to speed are close. The line was producing more than they needed, with the excess being stockpiled" confirms something of an electrode inventory build.
    15 Jan 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
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