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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 48: Beginning Jan. 13, 2012, John Petersen's Article 174 comments
    Jan 13, 2012 10:40 PM
    Beneath is a fine article written by battery expert, John Petersen, with a few modifications from the orginal article posted in AltEnergyStocks:


    An Elephant Hunter's Theory About Axion Power's Price Surge


    John Petersen

    Over the last few days I've been inundated with questions from readers who want to know why Axion Power International (AXPW.OB) has smoothly surged from a low of $0.25 on December 30th to a closing price of $0.58 yesterday. The short answer is the stock is finally emerging from the mother of all supply and demand imbalances and the persistent sellers that punished the price over the last 20 months are almost out of the picture. Since I believe we're witnessing the beginning of an entirely new market dynamic, a detailed explanation seems appropriate.

    In December 2009, Axion closed a private placement transaction where four large buyers and 47 small investors bought 45.8 million shares of common stock at a price of $0.57 per share. I was thrilled. At the time I wrote:

    "To my way of thinking, the most impressive aspect of Axion's financing is sheer size. Axion had roughly 37 million common share equivalents outstanding before the placement and sold 46 million additional shares. Selling 55% of a company without surrendering control is extremely rare. The more telling fact is that the cumulative reported trading volume in Axion's stock for 2009 has only been 6.6 million shares. In other words, these private placement investors bought roughly seven times the annual trading volume in a single transaction. Nobody in his right mind buys that kind of weight with the expectation that he'll be able to resell at a profit in an illiquid market. That tells me this group of investors is taking a long-term view and swinging for the fences with Axion's other large holders. I'm delighted to have the company, even if they did get a better price."

    Based on 30 years in the trenches as a small company corporate finance lawyer I believed the 2009 private placement would put a solid floor of $1.20 under the stock price. The market behaved about the way I expected it would for three and a half months and then all hell broke loose when:
    • A busted hedge fund that owned 2.7 million shares began liquidating;
    • A bankruptcy estate that owned 544,000 shares began liquidating; and
    • Resale registration statements for 2008 and 2009 private placement shares went effective.
    All of the sudden there were far more shares in the hands of willing sellers than the market could absorb. As the sellers started pushing their offer prices down in an effort to clear their books or turn a quick profit, the price fell from a 10-day moving average of $1.18 on March 30th to $0.80 on May 30th. By the end of July the 10-day average had fallen to $0.55. There were no problems with Axion's business, but there were a number of large shareholders who forgot the fable of the goose that laid the golden eggs.

    A few days ago one of my followers on Seeking Alpha drew my attention to the daily short reports OTCBB market makers file with FINRA. The FINRA data is unusual because the market makers report all sales of shares that aren't under their control as short sales. Therefore, two types of transactions show up in the FINRA reports:
    • True short sales; and
    • Transactions where a selling stockholder has a physical stock certificate that must be converted into electronic form prior to delivery.
    Other transaction types are reported from time to time, but they're rare. Since true short selling has never been an issue for Axion, it occurred to me that the FINRA daily short sale reports might provide an accurate and reliable way to track resales by private placement purchasers. On Tuesday my data-mining friend H. T. Love sent me FINRA short data going back to April 1, 2010, just before the resale registration statements for the private placement shares went effective. The accuracy of the FINRA data as a tracking tool for resales of private placement shares is astounding.

    Since April 1, 2010, the total of short sales reflected in daily FINRA reports from market makers is 35,888,306 shares. During that period, my best estimate of the shares that have moved from physical certificates to electronic form follows:

    Busted hedge fund2,746,869
    Bankruptcy estate543,600
    Deceased stockholder8,245,614
    The Quercus Trust5,724,978
    Special Situations Funds7,433,411
    Weak 2009 small investors
     
    10,800,000
    Total35,708,594

    My best estimate of the shares remaining in the hands of 2008 and 2009 private placement purchasers follows:

    Blackrock7,150,000
    Manatuck Hill Partners7,200,000
    The Quercus Trust2,846,451
    Strong 2009 small investors3,600,000
    Total20,896,451

    The only numbers in the tables that are an outright guess are the shares held by weak vs. strong 2009 small investors, and that guess simply assumes that 3/4 the small 2009 investors were spooked by the market decline and decided to take their cash out of the game at a break-even price. While the data for Blackrock and Manatuck Hill is based on old SEC filings, both should file updated reports by mid-February.

    If you look at the Axion chart for the last 20 months there is nothing that would attract a short-term trader, except for a brief run-up in January through March of 2010. In fact, the chart would terrify every trader I know. That means the only people who might have been attracted the stock were investors who attended an Axion presentation and decided to buy, or who've followed my blog for a long time, climbed a personal wall of worry and decided to swing for the fences in hopes of an elephant hunter's return.

    I believe my long-term readers have bought the substantial bulk of Axion’s float. Unless Manatuck Hill, Blackrock or the remaining 2009 small investors start selling in meaningful volume, it looks like the only reliable source of supply is the Quercus Trust which will probably sell the rest of its shares over the next few months. From this point forward, I believe the market price is in the collective hands of the investors who bought over the last 20 months.

    The last 20 months have been a very trying time for Axion's stockholders because of a highly unusual supply and demand dynamic. In a normal market I would have expected the floor of $1.20 to hold till the summer of 2010 when Axion announced an important development contract with Norfolk Southern that would normally have boosted the price into the $1.80 range. Last fall I would have expected Axion's disclosure of superior testing results with BMW to boost the price into the $2.70 to $3.60 range. At this point I don't know what an objective fair value for Axion's stock is, but I expect to find out over the next few weeks.

    Disclosure: Author is a former director of Axion Power International (AXPW.OB) and holds a substantial long position in its common stock.


    ####

    Thank you, John, for a wonderful piece.
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Comments (175)
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  • Author’s reply » Last Comment in the previous Concentrator from 481086:

     

    Kent, just the kind of expansion I needed, and was kind of fishing for, thanks much. So I wonder if they hit it hard these last couple of days on the runup to try to raise enough cash to then be able to wait-- throttle it back, until the price recovers so that they can again try to sell another big block on a runup... I know they've been responsible sellers, but it would seem that now, as they're getting closer to the bottom of their own barrel, and they obviously very much need the funds generated, that they would employ just about any reasonable maximization strategy that they have, in order to get the most out of the remaining and dwindling shares... especially now that Special Sits is out of the picture and Quercus' own lone (?) hand on the throttle will have that much more salutory effect...
    13 Jan 2012, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, Did you check the link that WT gave to Insider Cow? It shows that Quercus (Gelbaum) sold the usual 10% these last three days.

     

    http://bit.ly/zbnoR5

     

    Edit: Excuse me Maya, I see it was 481086 instead of you that made the post.
    13 Jan 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • I do see that, but overall still looks to me like they've had a heavier hand than usual, going back to about Dec 23... during that time they've sold about a million shares total... and if you look further, it appears it took them a lot longer to sell the million before that..

     

    I guess we'll see what they do, but it's true that whatever that turns out to be, they can't do it for much longer..
    14 Jan 2012, 04:13 AM Reply Like
  • Since Quercus is scrupulous about limiting sales to 10% of daily volume, their sales go up and down with the market. In the last 30 days, total trading volume was 14.25 million shares. The previous high volume champions were March and April when monthly numbers were 13.1 and 8.7 million respectively.
    14 Jan 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • O.K. people...it's the weekend. The stock market is closed until Tuesday (it is closed for MLK, isn't it?) Go spend some time with your families and stop posting 150 messages a day!!! I need to get some yard work done this weekend, and spend some time with my wife and kids and I don't have time to read three new concentrators on Tuesday after MLK! ;-)

     

    Good night.
    13 Jan 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • it's my birthday today, so roger wilco!
    14 Jan 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Lab Tech: Change of mind. I have since the beginning encouraged everyone to comment whenever they want, about whatever they want. As long as I'm the desk clerk, I will never ask anyone to slow down their ideas/comments. Weekends, holidays, makes no difference.

     

    Those with skin in the game will keep up; they have $ on the line.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • Maya,

     

    Speaking of "skin in the game"...since the Steelers are out I feel I can post the following:

     

    "Go Pack Go!!! :-)
    14 Jan 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • LOL.
    Ditto. I have a day job besides this...
    14 Jan 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Arrrgh! I always root for the team that beat mine. I can't stand all this Tebow crap. But I HATE New England. Quandry.
    14 Jan 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Lab: I'm all about that! I'm heading for a beer momentarily, and finally.

     

    But...

     

    bang: I noticed that when I corrected the APC # 46 caption, that it dropped off the front Google page (when one Googles, "Axion Power) . I want to do some title correcting and add in to the Concentator titles TG's interviews, which I somehow omitted. If I correct/expand these titles, will that affect Google's weighting?
    13 Jan 2012, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Don't change them - leave them alone. You wind up changing the URL and the old URL's are already in the database. It will create confusion and drop weighting when previously cataloged URL's disappear.

     

    I got a google alert email on Concentrator 47 today, alert key word Axion. Leave stuff alone. Only person or thing paying attention to the titles other than the first few words and concentrator number is Google.s spiders. Don't confuse them - they don't like getting lost.
    14 Jan 2012, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks, buddy. That's what I thought, and expected.

     

    I will wait a month or so to clean up some back stuff, when it's off Google's third page, or so.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Maya, Please accept my apology for not sending my condolences sooner n regard to the Steelers demise. :)

     

    (sent in good cheer & I really couldn't believe it)
    14 Jan 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LT: I'm still in disbelief.
    14 Jan 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • >Mayscribe ... That truly was a dumb defensive line-up.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Come on, Maya. You gotta love it. He wears 3:16 on his eye makeup and he passes for 316 yards on an unlikely 10 passes giving him 31.6 yards per pass, in an uncanny win against the Steelers where he throws the overtime touchdown pass, which had to give him the exact yardage for the 316 yards. What is there not to love about that story? :-)

     

    Disclaimer: I am a Ravens fan so that could have helped me love it.
    14 Jan 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Not arguing about the poor defensive call on that play.

     

    And I also won't forget how it was as if someone striped some napalm up and down the center of both Steelers starting lineups. The Steelers were not going to the Supe this year anyway.

     

    As much as I loath the Ravens, since they are from the AFC Central, I'm going to be pulling for them.
    14 Jan 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • To call it an amazing coincedence would almost be playing it down. It really was quite the game and quite the "miracle". Tebow is the best story of the playoffs by far.
    14 Jan 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • LEAVE THE URLS ALONE MY BEST ADVICE! The content you can change to your heart's content - but don't mess with the URLS. It will lead to 404 (page not found) errors by Google's spiders and you really don't want that, trust me. I am working on the website I have been developing offline and haven't posted new content to the site yet until its done.

     

    One new piece of work I will be doing after I finish the posted links is summarizing the focus of the principal discussions in each Concentrator, like Annual Meeting, 3rd Quarter 10Q and Conference Call, January Stock Run Up, etc. I am currently working on putting all the posted links from all Concentrators into a grid by topic now like Rail, Grid, Auto, etc. To do that I am looking individually at over 500 links pulled from all the concentrators by a custom spider developed by Concentrator Member F-KRU and emailed to me . He did a super job! Having to separate the wheat from the chaff.
    15 Jan 2012, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Okay. I'm just miserable that I did not once spell "Concentrator" correctly. Hate that. But I will abide.

     

    Loving your work, bang!
    15 Jan 2012, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Ditto Maya. I've been a huge Steeler fan since '75 (those were the days!), sometimes feeling like I, alone, was carrying the entire team on my shoulders (those were the ugly days!).

     

    I'm so frustrated with them. You just never could tell this year, whether they would show up for the game that week or not. It was like rolling the dice.

     

    For me, football season is over except for the beer. I guess we'll commiserate together!
    24 Jan 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • That is a great story ja. No question about that. I'm the iup there with the biggest of the biggest Steelr fans, but I can still appreciate that. Tebow isn't nearly as gifted an NFL QB as say Colt McCoy or Cam Newton, but the kid has intangibles that money can't buy. He gets things done, that nobody wold be believe could be done. To think that his coach was still not a believer in week 13 or 14 is just pathetic. He truly is an amazing story.
    24 Jan 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Guys

     

    You can always jump on the Gmen WAGON !!!!! We never hold grudges....

     

    map
    24 Jan 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • I have said since the pre season ended. "I don't think any team can score more points than the Patriot offense". After the season I said the same thing. After the play-offs I am still saying the same thing. But, I will concede that if a team can do it, the G Men are the ones.
    25 Jan 2012, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Beat em already this year..Peaking at the right time, and Cundoff will no longer be a Raven...
    25 Jan 2012, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Well ,
    having been a fellow graduate of the same college I would like to think the Billy Cundoff's play was no less significant than the other bad plays by fellow Raven players during the game.
    25 Jan 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • AND i would like to think AXION will hit 15 bucks a share tomorrow as well....Cundoff blew it !!!

     

    Do they still have the CFL???
    25 Jan 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting background to the missed kick:
    http://deadsp.in/xAqj3e
    26 Jan 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • WT,
    That was a very interesting read. I had no idea how a kicker went about his routine. It really shows the intricacies of pro football.
    I am always amazed how people view obvious errors as the source of a team victory or win. Why isn't the Boldin fumble the mistake that cost the game? The earlier bad throw by the QB? Whether in business or sports its important that all parts of the team work together.
    But Billy had the last opportunity to do well and he failed. There will be consequences to him for that.. I suspect the fans of Baltimore do not care about the scoreboard or routine. They simply cared about tying the game.
    26 Jan 2012, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • I am a huge fan of the Ravens, and I can say I am much more disappointed in Lee Evans dropping the TD pass than Cundiff's big kick. But even there you can not blame Evans. He is a very good receiver and while he was hurt for part of the season he only had four catches the entire year (rarely played) while Tory Smith dropped pass after pass after pass all season.

     

    The offense had a lot of potential and the offensive coordinator never allowed it to realize that potential. We should have scored at least 30 points that game with the way Brady played and threw 2 pics. For me, it is all on Cam Cameron. He never got the offense "synced-up" all season.
    26 Jan 2012, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • Ok, i will buy it...But as a gambler he still choked as the snap was fine..He gets paid plenty of money just to KICK a frihhen ball. Should be ready under any condition....God i hate the Pats!!!
    26 Jan 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Geez MAP...hate is such a strong word!...;-)

     

    Obviously a Pats fan...
    26 Jan 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mag

     

    No, a JETS fan now rooting for my dads Giants as he passed away a year ago. He would be going crazy right now...As a JETS fan how can i not hate Belichek????

     

    I am a NY er.....
    26 Jan 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • MAP,
    I understand your fandom, your respect for your Dads team, and your fan hatred of the Pats. All are a part of sports. But your line indicating that a kicker must be perfect just will never be logical.
    As a Viking fan that saw a kicker miss his only field goal of a season ,that cost us a trip to the Superbowl, I know what I'm talking about. The most prolific offense in NFL history lost to the Falcons on a kick.

     

    But it did not make the kicker different than he had been all year. Not a choker. Just an error at an inopportune time. Its what makes football great.
    26 Jan 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • MAP
    Apologies...I meant I am a Pats fan.
    Condolences... about your dad...I can understand your excitement and energy...no pun intended! (AXPW)
    I'm sure your dad is looking down and smiling.
    27 Jan 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • On a different message board there was a thread earlier this week on what sporting event did you most enjoy watching someone lose. As its a Wisconsin Badger message board two of the top ones listed were:
    1. Vikings lose to Falcons on missed FG
    2. Vikings lose to Saints in OT as Favre reverts to form of last few years in GB.

     

    I must say I really enjoyed watching the Vikings lose that game as we were with family who were evenly split Packer/Viking fans. That said, I hope Ziggi doesn't move the team to LA.
    27 Jan 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist

     

    I understand your point, kickers are not perfect. But i betcha most people thought that game was headed to OT...That is what makes players earn different salaries. Does the wideout drop passes???

     

    When i have to pay in excess of 100 bucks a seat, and have to actually buy the seat as well in NY, i just expect efficiency . To me i still consider that miss a choke. If i am wrong he will be on the roster next year. Whats your guess on that one??

     

    No, that does not make football great, it makes gamblers sick !!!
    27 Jan 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • mag

     

    I am in a knockout Super Bowl pool and i have the Pats for the game. Talk about mixed emotions. The way i look at is i can't lose no matter who wins.

     

    Thanks for the condolence as we were really close. Only 20 years apart in age so he was like a big brother to me as well. Honestly just hoping for a good game..

     

    MAP
    27 Jan 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • MAP,

     

    Thanx for the offer good buddy, but I think I'm going to "pass" on that one. After 36 years behind the greatest team in NFL history, I don't see me jumping anywhere very quickly. After all, if we win the Superbowl EVERY year, there wouldn't be much fun left in watching ... for anyone. We would be like the Yankees were a decade ago.

     

    I lived in north NJ for 13 years. All I ever heard about was the Giants and the Yankees. You know how you feel when a really good hit single is released and the radio DJs just play it endlessly? You just begin to hate the song after a couple of weeks! Same thing goes for sports. I thoroughly enjoyed the 15 or 20 Giants games I went to with my college buddy who had season tickets. And there was a group of 7 of us that had season tickets to the Yanks; Friday night games, just 5 or 6 rows off of third base.

     

    Chris Snee, #86, the Giants starting OG (right I believe) graduated near the top of his class of 185/190 kids from our local high school and my place of employment. Great kid! Incredibly hard worker! He dutifully returns to our little cow town, his place of humble upbringing, several times each year to do fund raisers with the United Way, the Punt, Pass and Kick competition, some training camps with the little guys, etc. He's a bit of local hero I suppose. My 12 yr old step-daughter is a huge Giants fan because of him. But even with all of that to connect me to them, I grew sooo sick of hearing about them, I pretty much just shut the door on them. The Yanks to a greater extent because I also despised George Steinbrener and the way they bought their way to the pennant year after year. Don't care much what they do.

     

    But hey, since you were so gracious, I'll return the favor. If you ever feel the need to get behind a team that can WIN a Superbowl, you're more than welcome to join the Steeler Nation. We hold no grudges either and we fully understand that deep inside, everyone wants to be a winner. NOBODY does it better than the Steelers! Those numbers never lie.
    28 Jan 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist,

     

    Per my NFL Mobil app, the Pats are actually the #3 scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 32.1 pts / game.

     

    They trail the Packers and the Saints who average 35 and 34.2 pts / game, respectively. The Pats are the top scoring team in the AFC, however.
    28 Jan 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • EGG

     

    Now you are starting to sound like my brother in law...Sure you aren't him??

     

    I also know why you GAVE UP on Santonio Holmes as well. To tell you the truth i am actually a JETS fan so i have nothing to say about that. Except i gave up my season tickets when you had to actually BUY the seat. Four seats in fact. Can buy a condo in Florida for that price!!!

     

    Just hoping for a good game with some Axion shareholders . One is a die hard Giants fan that flew out to SF as his friend has season tickets. Got a flight for 350 bucks, on the way home got bumped off the flight and picked up a 400 buck voucher and flew first class home on the red eye.

     

    But the idiot wore his BLUES and got pounded. Hey he asked for it !!

     

    MAP
    28 Jan 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Guys please - this football talk is killing me. As a 49er fan who waited a decade for them to be relevant again, and then watched them lose like that, popping into a concentrator and being reminded of the loss is like opening a old wound all over again ... :P
    28 Jan 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry, but it's small talk..plus the 49ers were overrated anyway !!!!
    Just become a Jets fan , well i take that back, your club does suck more...lol..
    28 Jan 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome Jay, Can't you just feel the love?
    28 Jan 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Jay,
    Sorry for your loss but it was great to see the 49rs relevant again.
    I was fortunate, that the last time the Vikings had an extended period of terrible teams, the 49rs were being great with Joe Montana. I loved them 2nd best of all. Like their coach, players, and entire team attitude.
    Good luck in the future, but hope the Vikes kick them when we can.
    28 Jan 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » If bangwhiz wouldn't kill me for changing the title of this particular Concentrator, I would change it to, "APC # 48, JP's FINRA Article, with NFL Smack Talk."

     

    Enjoying the banter. And I appreciate you guys keeping all of this in a past Concentrator. Thanks.
    28 Jan 2012, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • MAP,

     

    LOL! He did ask for it! As for Holmes, he's a sell out. You can have him. Great receiver. You can't deny that. But these clowns that are already making $5 or $8 mil and then they turn around and bail on their "teammates" for another $2 mil make me nuts! No sense of loyalty. No character! It's all about them. Receivers are particularly famous for it. Yeah, I know it's a 25-30% raise, but how much do you really need? Especially when you only *work* 8 months out of the year and *work* is doing your favorite thing in the world? And the truth is, they would have gotten a big raise to stay too, just not quite as big.

     

    That's one of things that I really enjoy about the Steelers is that they have very few players do that. Guys get there with a group of hard working players that know how to get things done and they stick. I'm sure that nearly all of the starters get offers to go elsewhere for more $$, but very few do. That says a lot for their character, IMO, and I think it has a lot to do with why they win. We had a QB who did that at the same time Holmes turned traitor. Can't even remember his name, that's how significant he was! But he thought it was all about him, bailed for a bigger check and BAM! The door slammed shut on his career. I think he played for the Jets for 1 season. He sucked. Sat most of the season IIRC, and I never heard about him again. Poor bastard! After all, it was him that made the Steelers great wasn't it?!?!

     

    I really do wish the best for Snee and the other Giants. I just can't really get behind them. I'm sure it'll be a very good game.

     

    Am I understanding correctly then, that you don't want to jump on board with a team that WINS superbowls? ;-)

     

    Enjoy!
    29 Jan 2012, 04:00 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry Maya! I'm done now. No disrespect intended. Just havin a little fun!
    29 Jan 2012, 04:05 AM Reply Like
  • Meh. Why not be a fan of the packers? Since we are all shareholders of axion, why wouldn't you want to be an owner of your team. Proud owner of 1 share of the packers.
    29 Jan 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Egg

     

    Nah, although i agree with you about team loyalty. I have to stay loyal to my JETS....But that superbowl winning may be a thing of the past if you don't get a running back, and a GREAT ONE!!!

     

    Did Harris REALLY make THAT catch????

     

    MAP
    29 Jan 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • MR

     

    Lets hope Axion shares will be more valuable than Packer shares. You really didn't get suckered into buying one did you?? Another team that spit the bit come crunch time!!!!

     

    Regular season means nothing. I think Maya propsed this in the past but maybe an AXION FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE next year?? I know someone who will commission it!!!

     

    Then we can see how good we all are !!! Just have the smack talk on a different concentrator, thats all...

     

    map
    29 Jan 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Birthday gift from the issuance in the 90s. Looks nice on my wall. Looked better when I lived in nj around jets/giants fans.
    29 Jan 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • MRHOLTY

     

    Nice!!!

     

    map
    29 Jan 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » No prob at all egg! Like I wrote, I'm enjoying the banter.
    29 Jan 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Someone else must have come up with that idea, MAP.
    29 Jan 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • MAYA

     

    Well we should consider it next year if we have a core of investors that have kept in touch..If not no biggie..I believe that a bunch of posters here are gamblers, and it seems that they like football as well. Just a thought!!!

     

    map
    29 Jan 2012, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • I am so confident in the football knowledge of the Axionistas I believe Bang should put a separate section on the website for football updates. I will be happy to let everyone know why Christian Ponder will lead the Vikes to an upset Superbowl victory next year.
    And just so you don't think I'm only a smack talker, I did come third in a very strong fantasy league this year. That my friends is close to the definition of expert.
    29 Jan 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist

     

    Got a better one for you. I picked up Cam Newton after the first week as a flier.No one drafted him !!! Yup, i won my league as well....So it looks like we have a bunch of experts here...CAN'T WAIT TO SEE WHO DRAFTS BILLY CUNDIFF!!!! Futurist, looking at your prior post i guess you'll be all over him in the 5 th round.

     

    Whats a strong fantasy league anyway??? Above 6th graders??

     

    Nope, have a league, name a price, collect the money prior to the draft. and let the cream rise to the top!!!

     

    Ok, going to place my order for my AXION shares now....

     

    MAP
    29 Jan 2012, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • MAP,

     

    That was me. I think I suggested it on the QC. I think it would be great. I'd even run the Smack Talk Concentrator. I wonder if SA would even allow that, or would they shut it down?
    29 Jan 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Egg

     

    Well we could just get the participants from here and run it on CBS site. Nothing special having the smack printed here anyway. Lets start by having ANYONE interested in joining it PM me and well take it from there..You ok with that Egg??

     

    MAP
    30 Jan 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • MAP,
    "Nothing special..", OK but do you think they would allow a Concentrator dedicated to "smack"? I mean, do they really want to be paying for that on a site dedicated to finance and economics? On the other hand, I guess if it adds to the culture and the community enjoys it, then it's positive in terms of traffic to the site and keeping people here, so why not?

     

    Yeah MAP, running the league on CBS is actually what I was thinking of too. I don't care if people PM you. If you want to do that, who am I to argue? Are you thinking that you want to co-commish it with me?
    30 Jan 2012, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Egg

     

    Not at all. You can have it!!! What i meant by nothing special is we don't have to smack talk on a concentrator at all..We can keep that seperate.

     

    By all means please run it as i have enough on my plate already. I wasn't sure you wanted it, and i really don't...So it is up to you.

     

    MAP
    31 Jan 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Well, to be honest, I think it would a good thing if you were interested in sharing that with me. I would really enjoy it, but unfortunately my schedule often leaves insufficient time, even for my family, so I think I would be doing all of you a disservice by trying to handle it on my own and then end up not doing a proper job. If you want to do it together, that would be great. If not, you can handle it. That's would be fine too.
    31 Jan 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Lets see the interest first and then well decide,,,i was thinking about an independent person who might have an interest. I am not a computer person , so i really don;t think i would be a good candidate to run it...

     

    But i would compete..so lets see how many others are..
    31 Jan 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Works for me MAP.
    31 Jan 2012, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Off topic but I would really like to hear some good feedback on AONE.
    They just keep landing contracts which lose huge amounts of money to the point they could jeopordize their future. Their product has many problems which may or may not be corrected.

     

    I will have to admit I was disappointed in BMW using them in the new 3 & 5 series. I was so hoping that they would use PbC in their S/S systems.

     

    All of us here thanks to JLP knew that Tesla could not maintain their market cap for whatever reason. The recent loss of two top engineers is just as good an excuse the send it lower as any.

     

    Just wondering if AONE can survive or is this pie going to be large enough in 2 years to support everyone? They only have cash for that length of time from what I read. Comments appreciated on this and how this affects AXPW.
    14 Jan 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • BMWs hybrids are a different animal from their conventional cars with stop-start systems.

     

    The HEV upgrade on the 3 and 5 Series BMWs costs about $8,000 and is a full Prius-class hybrid electric drive – http://aol.it/xSKTFg

     

    BMW's EfficientDynamics package which includes stop-start is going into over a million cars a year – http://bit.ly/wAQI4Z

     

    A123's in an interesting position right now. The stock has fallen 90% from its peak and is trading at a discount to book value. They're finishing construction of a monster new factory that's supposed to slash their manufacturing costs. The cost reductions are not clear yet and all anybody can go on is happy-talk, but if they do succeed in reducing costs substantially and are able to book enough orders to fill their new capacity, it may be a good investment. The lithium-ion battery market scares me because global manufacturing capacity is hugely overbuilt and battery users have no qualms about dropping suppliers if somebody else comes in with a lower price.

     

    I don't expect A123 to cross swords with Axion often because their products are focused on different markets. Where they do cross swords I expect Axion to have a 3 to 1 price advantage, which is pretty hard to overcome unless size and weight are mission critical.

     

    The good news is that storage is a monster opportunity and there's plenty of room for both companies to thrive. A123's battle will be with other lithium-ion battery manufacturers, not Axion.
    14 Jan 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • I agree. I really hope AONE does well -- the battle ground between them and PbC will be mild hybrics, not ISS and not Full hybrids like the two captioned above. That said, is AONE making any money on these deals?

     

    kt
    14 Jan 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting article today. Some snippets:
    No less than one third of a car's fuel consumption is spent in overcoming friction, and this friction loss has a direct impact on both fuel consumption and emissions. However, new technology can reduce friction by anything from 10% to 80% in various components of a car, according to a joint study by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in USA. It should thus be possible to reduce car's fuel consumption and emissions by 18% within the next 5 to 10 years and up to 61% within 15 to 25 years....
    By comparison, an electric car has only half the friction loss of that of a car with a conventional internal combustion engine.

     

    Don't get me wrong; I agree that electric cars are not what they are cracked up to be. Just an interesting fact.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » alpha5one: Could you please provide a link? I know someone who is in the very early stages of working on a friction-free motor, testing it right now with a scooter, and has proposed to me to make an investment. I'd like to forward him this article.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • >alpha5one ... One of the things that Beacon Power advanced was the application of magnetic bearings. No matter the fate of the company in the power industry, this is something with wide application that I hope survives.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Yo Mayascribe, This should do it - http://bit.ly/ABDIrT
    14 Jan 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks, A51! Appreciated. Also, ScienceDaily is one of my favorite websites.
    14 Jan 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » SB: Please read the past two Concentrators. Lots of discussion. No need to repeat it here.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • So going back to a guess as to the value of a serious commitment from NS I believe we have the following.

     

    JP guesses that up to 8,000 of the total 24,000 locomotives might be converted to PowerCube technology and apparently the locomotives are rebuilt every 10 years and the current guess is revenue per conversion accruing to Axion might be about $500K.

     

    So the best case could well be 8,000/10*$500K/12=$33 million per month in revenue from NS.

     

    66 locomotives/month*1,600 batteries = 105,600/ month*30 electrode assemblies each = 3,168,00 electrode assemblies per month required.

     

    The numbers are vast especially if you remember the following,

     

    A quote from JP from the Concentrator 4 follows,

     

    "I believe 30 carbon electrode assemblies per battery is right. When you start talking about adding shifts, the productivity per shift that I've always heard from industrial engineering types is 80% for a day shift, 70% for a swing shift and 60% for a night shift. So if I was doing a back of the napkin capacity calculation for a three shift operation, I'd expect to produce 9,600 electrode assemblies per line per day - or enough electrode assemblies for 320 batteries. For a 50 week work year, it works out to electrodes for 80,000 batteries per line per year. So a hypothetical 12 line operation would cost about $60 million to build and be within spitting distance of electrodes for a million PbC batteries per year.

     

    Since Axion has always been careful to avoid setting a clear price, but they've previously published numbers that imply a $100 price spread between a PbC and an AGM battery, I like to separate the revenue potential into two pieces. If a 12 line facility can make electrodes for a million batteries per year, I think in terms of $100 million in electrode value which is all Axion, and $150 in AGM battery value which will go to whomever owns the battery plant.

     

    The permitted capacity in New Castle is about 750,000 batteries per year from two flooded battery lines and one AGM line. I'm not sure whether the throughput capacities of the lines are different, but think that 1,000 PbC batteries per day is probably on the high side. It that number is right, then Axion could max out it's PbC manufacturing capacity with three electrode fabrication lines.

     

    My sense is that Axion would like to build as many complete batteries as possible before it starts selling electrode assemblies to others, but even 250,000 PbC batteries per year would represent a revenue potential in the $85 million range from the New Castle plants with under $10 million in additional capital spending.

     

    When you start talking about building additional electrode fabrication facilities for other battery plants, the numbers can quickly get very silly.
    17 Aug 2011, 01:37 AM ! Report Abuse"
    14 Jan 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • >AlbertInBermuda ... One clarification, the 8k locos is the number of mainline machines owned by the Tier 1 Railroads in N.America (BNSF, UP, CSX, NS). Norfolk Southern owns 3,897 of which 2,178 would be considered over-the-road, 1,719 would be locals or switchers. It is this last number to which the NS999 design would be for. How many, I don't know, but would guess ~1200. The hybrid, using a battery box slug mixed in with "A" units, hasn't been build (best I know) or tested except as a static model in Roanoke.

     

    Going by what I've been told, in a normal year, complete rebuilds of switchers are on an order of 50 and can vary up/down. I would suspect a changeover to BEV would be higher. The other Tier 1 roads would look quite similar, so let's say, at full ramp, 250 locos x 1080 Battery/each = 270,000 PbC/year x $250 = $67.5M cash flow x 15% margin = $10M gross from 4 mainline switcher conversions. The real bonanza in this segment is the thousands of smaller roads you've probably never heard of that make their entire living doing shunt work at ports, terminals and urban commercial sites.

     

    Just for switchers Axion could run 1M+ total batteries for many years to fill conversions worldwide before settling down 300k-500k for as far as projections can see. Add in the mainline hybrid a few years down the road ... I just don't do number projections like this well ... I just think it will be worth the effort.

     

    I would appreciate those better suited to this task to jump right in here.
    14 Jan 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Albert, I believe JP's 24,000 locomotive count was for U.S. railroads taken together. Focusing on NS alone would give us a much better picture of what a substantial NS PbC battery commitment might look like and a more probable near-term RR market potential.

     

    NS serves only a part of the country with about 21,500 miles of track out of ~140,500 overall or about 15% of the national track miles. Pulling a number out of the air, assume that NS operates 20% of the country's locomotives in part on the premise that a larger portion than average of NS track serves hilly/moujntainous terrain with need for more helper/pusher locomotives. So, we might consider the NS market opportunity as something on the order of 0.2x24,000=4,800. Assuming complete overhaul every ten years gives us 480 annually for retirement from service, overhaul or conversion. Evenly split between "yard" and "road" locos, PbC batteries per conversion would average around 1,350. At Axion's present installed PbC electrode production capacity (~320 batteries/week), it could support conversion of about one loco per week with enough electrodes left over for ~150 batteries in other applications. Converting just 10% of NS's hypothesized locomotive workover volume to battery electric would insure high utilization of Axion's installed capacity. A 5% conversion rate (24 locomotives) could absorb nearly half of Axion's electrode assembly output and give Axion room to support development of oil/grid PowerCube markets.
    14 Jan 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for those NS locomotive counts, DR. The mix between "over-the-road" and "switchers" as well as ~annual "switcher" rebuilds is fascinating.

     

    Question. Why would you expect higher rates of changeover to BEV? Assuming unions are cooperative, wouldn't NS be more likely to phase in changeovers, re-training existing workforce/hiring different skill sets on retirements with increasing proportions of conversions vice rebuilds?
    14 Jan 2012, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... Unions(?) like, as in, Labor Unions? I don't see where that comes into the picture. As is common with any change, some one is going to complain but it's not something to focus on, unless you want to focus on the unimportant. I would expect a few years of lower proportions of complete changeovers while the technology proves itself but spreads to other roads. Then, with solid data from the field, a quick ramp to higher than average rebuilds. There is nothing beside tonnage & roadbed that matter more to a railroad than fueling expenses.

     

    After the majors prove fuel savings, Altoona & Cheyenne are going to be jammed with the small roads that are even more dependent on fuel savings for profit margins. I don't know the timeframe but it is looking like 3-5 years to me. I'm just talking switcher here. You can take and double the numbers mentioned above for a good 5-10 years. The road engines will be muscling in to this but truly the initial road units will be new and built by GE, EMD, NRE, Brookville and the like. This will quadruple the numbers mentioned above for a good 5 year run and longer if my idea of "A" units getting smaller diesels and go "Green Goat" or if more power is recuperated from some new technology like Kinetic Energy Recovery braking.

     

    There, that's my pie-in-the-sky vision of the rail industry for Axion. One half to three quarter billion in revenue for the next decade and a quarter billion as far out as you want to go. If you throw in S.America, Asia, Africa and the EU ... I'd put a 3x multiple on that. A guy can dream. Let's see if the damn thing works first..
    14 Jan 2012, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • DR: "Unions(?) like, as in, Labor Unions? I don't see where that comes into the picture. As is common with any change, some one is going to complain but it's not something to focus on, unless you want to focus on the unimportant. I would expect a few years of lower proportions of complete changeovers while the technology proves itself but spreads to other roads."

     

    :-) We seem to a bit of difference in perspective re-capacity of unions to shoot themselves as well as others in the feet. But, it appears we have similar outlloks on BEV conversions.
    15 Jan 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... I'd venture to guess that my personal views on many commonly held views & beliefs of the average SA reader/investor differ ... by a country mile.
    15 Jan 2012, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • >DR ... :-) Why should you be any different than the rest of us?
    15 Jan 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... I don't think of myself as any different ... well, until I open my mouth and other people inform me of that difference and how out of place the words & ideas are.
    15 Jan 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertInBermuda: "My sense is that Axion would like to build as many complete batteries as possible before it starts selling electrode assemblies to others"

     

    IIRC, it has been stated that Axion's goal is not to be a battery manufacturer, but rather would like to supply electrodes and/or technology to battery manufacturers (maybe some JVs in there too?).

     

    IIRC, the battery capacity they envision is for their own purposes, e.g., maybe the demo with PJM/Veridity, supplying NS and automakers for testing, etc. And JP has mentioned that we need second-source capability anyway for the automakers, so another entity *has* to be making them anyway.

     

    Someone will holler if my memory is faulty.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL ... If you had a paid for battery plant, wouldn't you want to build batteries there, at the highest possible margin, to cash finance the expansion of the "Intel Inside" business model? I know I would go that route before boppin' down to BofA and asking for a loan.
    14 Jan 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, agreed. I was just recalling (correctly I hope) what was said about the company's business model.

     

    Longer term, they certainly ought to utilize as much as possible of their resources. As a transition from a pure R & D effort to a going manufacturing concern, that's a given. Short term, the needed capex vs. cash availability vs loan expense, ... might make licensing revenues very attractive as a first step since (apparently) a second-source would be mandatory for the major auto segment anyway.

     

    Although I can't surmise that those revenues would appear before a cash raise is needed, TG might have knowledge of when such might come and be able to make a smaller cash raise when the shelf shares are issued. With the expected time-frame of only 3 weeks for additional GenX lines *delivery*, ordering can be delayed until 3 weeks plus installation and final setup time before needed (plus a little fudge factor).

     

    When one is strapped for cash and going to the market for it, a lot of alternatives might be very attractive as compared to what's needed to push into full manufacturing mode right away. So, I can see deferral of full ramp of production capacity as a possible first step. If one is managing to cash flow as one of their parameters.

     

    I think we shouldn't overlook that other battery manufacturers have had Axion testing their batteries. To what end? As I suggested in an early comment, this means that relationships have been established.

     

    What's implied if that is true? Lot's of speculation possible.

     

    Add in that we know several major auto makers have some activity and some speculation that one or more of them will be using PbC somewhere down the road. The impetus for a known reliable second source should be fairly strong at some point.

     

    To me, all that suggests a *possible* source of cash that we may not have been factoring in.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jan 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL ... Nah, I'm not a fan of licensing as a first step. Too easy to lose control of the IP because the one's available to capitalize on this are far better able to progress the product right out of Axion's control over contract and margin pricing. I'm not a fan of taking on debt either because the means of generating cash exist in the proper hands right now ... bought & paid for. I might think different if conditions were different but they are not. Axion is about as perfectly outfitted to control their own destiny as a company could ever hope for. Let's not get hasty and blow it.

     

    No, I'm, personally, fine with taking a hit to share price to raise money that will eventually put Axion on stronger footing to deal with whoever becomes a customer and manufacturing partnerships. I see this as much better than pissing away interest payments and running the risk of outside bean counters modifying the business to meet their needs. Being independent, debt free and strapped for cash is not good (been there) but better than strapped to "The Rack" and more important to me. I don't see the need to rush.

     

    "Axion Power. We will not manufacture a battery before its time [apologies to Paul Masson Wines for bastardizing their slogan]
    15 Jan 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Licensing is a great way to lose control of your technology. Partnering with a battery manufacturer on a co-owned plant that makes electrode assemblies can satisfy the multiple source issues.

     

    Axion has spent eight years protecting the technology and avoiding grasping suitors who wanted too much. I don't see an outright license in the cards a this late stage in the game.
    15 Jan 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Battery Manufacturing:

     

    I don't think I am wrong that TG has laid out the strategy for Axion going forward. They will build PbCs up to the permitted 3,000 per day at the New Castle manufacturing site. If an order from NS came in for 8000 locomotives at 1,700 PbC's each then 13,000,000 PbCs would need to be produced.

     

    This is not an issue. It is simply fact. Once Axion has one or more orders that max out capacity at New Castle they will simply sub contract with East Penn ( our friendly neighbor up the road) or another friendly AGM battery manufacturer to build the battery that NS needs using the Axion electrode. Negative electrode expansion is cheap and easy because it doesn't require the same legal permits a lead acid battery plant requires.

     

    Here are my easy formulas for figuring future profits for Axion.

     

    Battery Plant max capacity = 1 million PbCs. Profit equals 72 Million per year.

     

    Electrode plant: For each million PbCs produced at another plant Axion will need to invest 25 Million dollars in equipment for a profit of 30 Million dollars per year.

     

    Now for those of you trying to analyze revenue that translates to this:
    250 Million in revenue for PbCs produced in house.( 1 Million PbCs)
    100 Million in revenue produced outside of the New Castle plant. (1 Million Pbcs produced outside of Axion)
    14 Jan 2012, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • I will settle for 50M in revenue over the next few years. I think projecting out to 200M+ is too soon. I bet a lot can change between now and New Castle being maxed out. At some point someone would likely offer $5 share and try to buy Axion - imo
    14 Jan 2012, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • I think JP has previously laid out that max revenues from existing plants, batteries (2 lines, $250 each battery) and electrodes (10 lines, $100 each electrode), comes to about $115 million annually. That was my recollection from long ago, possibly even pre-concentrator. Note that not all of the existing battery lines are appropriate for PbC production (2 of the three I think are). Taking these figures, if we assume a 30% margin, and a $50 million CapEx to get the current plants working to capacity, then your $30-35 million earnings ($300-350 million valuation) will be divided up between a
    significant number of additional shares (estimate $150 million), leaving an approximate $2-2.50+ pps, plus value assigned on what might be coming down the track from any number of growing markets. Another equivalent electrode facility and the opportunity roughly doubles, but another $50 plus million of CapEx is needed.

     

    Just one wild guess as to where this could be in a couple of years.
    14 Jan 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • $5. What a lovely thought
    14 Jan 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Well your assumptions that a company will buy out Axion before it orders PbCs in large quantities from them kinda flys in the oppositye direction of where Axion is heading. Exide tried to squeese Axion a couple years ago but was bushwhacked by Axion management. At the time Axion most needed a cash infusion God sent East Penn with a contract to make flooded lead acid batteries for them. Just enough of a contract to keep the dreaded Exide vandals at bay.
    This is real life corporate finagling.

     

    If someone thinks East Penn isn't getting the first US based order for PbCs that Axion can't produce then they are using revisionist history to get to their conclusions.

     

    If they think Axion is simply a takeover candidate then they don't understand the number of insider shares plus the number of Axionista shares that are not for sale at todays prices.
    14 Jan 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • I think many will be surprised how many shares will turnover between now and $5 whenever that day comes (2013/2014). We need only to turn 10M shares a month to turn the whole outstanding one time over (although the likelihood is we will be churning a much smaller float many times as some will never sell). That being said I only said a $5 offer will likely come in at some point, whether Axion takes it is another story. These are high class problems. By my count $5 offer would mean a above 500M market cap once the new sharers come into the equation this Spring.
    15 Jan 2012, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • If Axion raises 15M dollars at .55-65 a share (assume 25-35% discount to Maya's .87 prediction for the raise) that'd bring in 25M plus more shares. Also 10M more will come come when the Q warrants are in the money. At some point the insiders lose the ability to thwart a takeover. I'd be happy with $5 but if it's more that's great too. I wish that it all unfolds so easy.

     

    "If they think Axion is simply a takeover candidate then they don't understand the number of insider shares plus the number of Axionista shares that are not for sale at todays prices."
    15 Jan 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • I think the numbers I suggested as possible for revenues with $50 million in capex were:

     

    Two flooded lines at 250,000 per year run rate = $25 million
    One PbC line at 250 per year run rate = $62.5 million
    Surplus from 1 million electrode set plant = $75 million

     

    If the PbC is successful enough to fill one electrode fab it should be successful enough to require at least three (NA, Europe, Asia) and possibly far more than three.
    15 Jan 2012, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • John do you see the excess capacity, once New Castle is maxed out from an NS order (let's say 600+ locos), being subbed out immediately? Or do you think Axion would build their own fabrication facilities to maintain margins and customer control as long as we're talking railroads and the orders don't go much over 1000 retrofits.

     

    Also how many more lines can be built on site at New Castle assuming we max our Spring placement out and raise 25M+ dollars. And does the 1M PbC cap (mentioned earlier) at New Castle already assume more capital equipment needed on site?
    15 Jan 2012, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • Let's not forget about the additional revenue potential from the BMS and the PowerCube "package".
    15 Jan 2012, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • John, How many electrodes in each PbC battery and how many electrodes can each line due per day? We only have 1PbC line right and those cost at least10M I'd assume. Also is there permit limits even if there's extra space at the plant for expansion?

     

    Sometimes I forget all the little details =)
    15 Jan 2012, 04:52 AM Reply Like
  • I have to believe demand will ramp at a reasonable pace rather than ramp rapidly to impossible levels. With some time and money, Axion could replace the two flooded lines with AGM lines which would bump their PbC capacity from 250,000 units a year to 750,000 units a year. Given a choice, however, I'd rather see Axion ramp electrode capacity because I expect higher margins on the electrode segment than the battery fabrication segment.

     

    The original plan was to prove the PbC's performance in industry specific demonstrations, and then carry that proof to other battery manufacturers saying "Lets partner up for this segment. We'll appoint you exclusive manufacturer for railroad applications and sell you all the electrode assemblies you need at a cost of $100 per battery. You'll handle the day-to-day work of manufacturing, distribution, sales and customer service functions. In return, you'll realize a higher per battery revenue and earn a better margin from your plant than you're making today."

     

    If Axion has to build plant and hire manufacturing, sales, distribution and customer service bodies to deal directly with the railroads, the up front costs will be huge. If it can prove the value, and then leverage somebody else's manufacturing, sales, distribution and customer service networks while keeping the highest margin business in house, partnering will be far more profitable than trying to bulk up to do it all in-house.
    15 Jan 2012, 05:38 AM Reply Like
  • Once upon a time Tom spoke of 30 carbon electrode assembles for a 12 volt battery, or five electrode assemblies per cell. Since a 16 volt battery makes each cell narrower while keeping the case dimensions constant, I'd expect a 16-volt battery to have either 24 or 32 electrode assemblies. The capacity of the Gen2 line is on the order of 4,800 electrode assemblies per shift, or perhaps 11,000 per day with a three shift operation. So each electrode line works out to ±150 battery equivalents per shift or ±360 battery equivalents per day. Working backwards from capital spending for the last two years, I'd guess that the cost of an electrode line is on the order of $3 million.

     

    Permitting is not an issue for the electrode lines, but it could be a big issue if Axion wanted to expand the capacity of the battery plant. The battery plant has a permitted capacity of 3,000 units per day. Currently 2/3 of the production capacity is in flooded battery lines and 1/3 is in the AGM lines. I don't know what it would cost to upgrade the battery factory to a point where it could make 3,000 AGM batteries per day, but it would not be cheap.
    15 Jan 2012, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • Given the above fabrication limits, what would we expect for an initial NS order to be (10 retrofits ?). It wouldn't take long for revenues to head past 50M if an initial order like this doubled in size every quarter going forward.

     

    Maybe my earlier thoughts of 50M in revenues should be moved up to 2012 but I've been told we wont break that until 2013 or later. To me that's when we start getting a nice market cap multiple. Then again supply and float dynamics might give us the big pop before these orders are a reality. Also I'd expect somebody would want to buy Axion if revenues can ramp at 200% yoy for the next few.
    15 Jan 2012, 06:17 AM Reply Like
  • The 2010 to 2011 YoY revenue ramp should be ±300%, going from $2 million to perhaps $8 million. Ramping to something in the $16 to $24 range for 2012 would be spectacular and draw a lot of attention. If you factor in a significant high profile industry order in any of the principal niches, analysts will take over the forecasting and do a far better job than you or I ever could. Until a willing seller and a willing buyer can agree on a fair price, I don't see a buy-out as likely.
    15 Jan 2012, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka> "assume 25-35% discount to Maya's .87 prediction for the raise" That's to big a discount. Max of .20% is more accurate.
    15 Jan 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • While they aren't our favorite battery maker after 2009, let's not forget that Xide has been building out their AGM plant in Ohio and it is supposed to be ready for production by the end of this year. Xide's update from Feb 2011 said they were 42% done and I expect that to be closer to 70% by next month's update. Since part of the DOE grant was to make those line capable of making PbC/AGM batteries, and the plant was supposed to be able to produce 1.5 million AGM batteries/year, there is a lot of production capacity that is supposed to be available to Axion if the NSs and BMWs of the world ask for PbC batteries.
    15 Jan 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • IMHO this is kind of a biggie.
    15 Jan 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Pity NS doesn't have 24,000 locomotives.

     

    Apologies! Must do more research before blogging!
    14 Jan 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • No apologies needed. Many times I blog before I think. In this case you are accurate. And no one knows how many loco's NS will have converted in what time frame. We are all believers, dreamers, and snort a little Hopeium from time to time.
    Bear with all of us until we all get the facts straight from NS as to the future.
    Just make sure and buy your Axion stock before the announcement.
    14 Jan 2012, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • You know while spinning my wheels waiting for the waiter to bring my G&T I'm trying to think of where else a PowerCube might come in handy.

     

    Anyone thought of applications like ships, particularly large ones like cruise ships? Of course an aircraft carrier would be a good fit.

     

    I live in Bermuda and our local electricity provider uses oil as fuel. We use massive amounts of electricity and have a dozen or more generators online at any one time, but several just sit there idling in reserve should the demand spike. Surely a PowerCube or 3 would be just the ticket to reduce the fuel bill and to as a bonus regulate the current flow especially since all power is generated from one central site.

     

    Certainly Bermuda must be just one of many hundreds of remote places where Axion's PowerCube technology would make a huge difference in the cost of providing reliable electricity supply. I wonder if the Axion sales people monitor this site?
    14 Jan 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • >AlbertinBermuda ... Yes, it is a market that would at least rival autos in sheer numbers. It is also a market that is severely underdeveloped. The only segment that would presently be available is sailboats and motor yachts. The working fleet barely has experimental demonstrators and the freight market has nothing at all.
    14 Jan 2012, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • The US Navy has looked at using batteries and regeneration for ship mounted cranes. These cranes make the supply ships independent of dockside cranes, which are often not where you want them.
    The ability to get back a significant chunk of energy when you LOWER a load to counteract the energy you supply when you RAISE a load has a large effect on the amount of generated power needed. It eliminates the big pulse of power when the crane first picks up the load. That allows several cranes to run on one generator by lowering the peak power requirements of all the cranes. The study numbers were impressive.
    That could require a noticeable number of batteries, which must have high Power capability to supply and absorb the peaks. PbC is engraved on the application.
    14 Jan 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • >SHB ... I was thinking propulsion unit, as in series electric hybrid drives for harbor and barge, open sea propulsion would be a huge MegaWatt user but I like the crane idea (kind of goes along with the oil rig thingy) and a sale is a sale.
    14 Jan 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • The thing I like about the crane app is that it cycles the batteries frequently, as in <10 minute cycles. That type of use is exactly what the high power, capacitance like behavior of the PbC is aimed at.

     

    Every new and diverse application that tries out a PbC is one more potential marketing bonanza. I suspect there are many applications that have never been "penciled out" for high Power capable battery storage. Mostly because the combination of storage cost and peak power were just not available before now.

     

    How many apps now use over-sized gensets that run inefficiently 90+% of the time? Down sizing those engines and generators could save capex, maintenance and fuel.
    Hugh potential for sales must exist; we just need to find them.
    15 Jan 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • >SHB ... Never mind the apps. We need to find the maker of the world's leading Kinetic Energy Recovery System and partner up. The apps will find us.
    15 Jan 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • That's my question about all the regenerative applications. We keep talking about them for oil rigs, forklifts and cranes, but do we know if anyone has designed a system for any of these that can capture regenerative braking?
    15 Jan 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • First off, any vehicle that uses an electric motor for propulsion is a candidate for regenerative braking. I think fork lifts are an obvious candidate.
    Do fork lifts use hydraulics to lift the forks, or electric motors? Or is it an application thing? If it's electric you can use regeneration to recovery energy when lowering loads.
    Help me out, anyone who knows something about fork lifts.

     

    16 Jan 2012, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • SH, I know nothing about forklifts other than they are made to lift things and law of gravity says what goes up must come down. Seems to me whether hydraulics or electric power is used to energize lift, it should be possible to capture gravitational energy when the weight support arms (fork) descends.
    16 Jan 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • >SHB .. I'm not sure it is worth the expense. Not enough travel distance for most and I would doubt the number of cycles to be economical when it did have a long enough lift travel.
    16 Jan 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Maya

     

    And to the rest of the posters i want to thank all of you for your input. I engage in talks with a few of you on other chat sites and just want to let you know that i broke my virginity on this stock. Although i have more technical learning to do i feel the product holds a very promising future.

     

    I hope not to ask foolish questions and will reread past comments for answers. But i have added this to my core holding and pray for the best!!!

     

    Just wanted to introduce myself to a new group, and hope to one day add some insightful info. ( had to turn off the New England game after the first thriller)

     

    MAP
    14 Jan 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome Metals Are Precious, good luck, and join the party!
    15 Jan 2012, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • Welcome MAP,

     

    It should be an interesting journey over the next two years. Like Drich eludes to, the ride could be bumpy and even frustrating at times as proving out commercialization in Auto and Railroad takes time, testing and more time.

     

    One market that most of us believe could bring commercial orders to the PbC sooner rather than later is the PowerCube/Mini Cube market. This year started things out right with the purchase order from Siltek for a Minicube for the DC Naval Yard's Zero Energy Building, we look forward to more announcements similar to this one throughout the year.

     

    http://prn.to/xRUlbi

     

    No questions are foolish questions here unless you ask for certainty's to base your investment on in a stock universe that does not give any. Even these questions will be answered cordially the first nine times asked or eluded to but on the tenth time you may get a slightly snide remark in reply. :-)

     

    Cheers and welcome again.
    15 Jan 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Jak

     

    Thanks, i had already read that article and to be honest that is what pushed me over the edge. I just believe something will happen that will take all by surprise and either make all happy or frustrated.

     

    But seeing the product in a naval yard just made me think the gamble might be worth it. Now that i laid a foundation down i just need to do my DD to decide how much i want to add. But appreciate the welcome from you all

     

    I might add owning physical metals for a few years now the only certainty is that manipulation will be involved in the metals.....lol...

     

    map
    15 Jan 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • BANGWHIZ

     

    Thank you, Looking forward to a solid education and hope i caught a product ahead of the curve that gets accepted in society. That question should get answered within a few years...

     

    What scenerio can move that timeline up besides war?

     

    MAP
    15 Jan 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • >MAP ... How about a few A-holes somewhere in the world marking their worthless assets to true value, collapsing the SWAPS market and having a few strategic, well deserved bankruptcies so we can get back to a little normal "productive" economic activity.
    15 Jan 2012, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • DRich...Following the markets, and the metals in particular, i only wish we could get those A- holes out of the manipulation. Unfortunately i do not see that happening soon. Hence my overweight in the metals...

     

    Hell, they are so brazen they don't even try to hide it anymore, been studying gold and silver for years. Was hoping this would turn out different. Bright new product that makes sense...probably won't work in spite of that,

     

    Learning a new product, just wondering if this was discussed already and save me a ton of research , thats all. Reading Maya's great work i might have missed this conversation.

     

    MAP
    15 Jan 2012, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • >MAP ... Well, short of fighting another war to find out which set of multinationals are going to control the last known easy oil reserves, Axion is just going to be a slow slog forward. The product requires testing by many market segments (underway) to explore its limitations but even in a stagnant economy the product is needed because it can save money at an affordable price. Can the company hold on? We will find out soon but all indications are pointing toward ... yes. Worse times have already been encountered, the product is known to be real, the management could squeeze a penny into a dollar, there is no debt to speak of and assets are free & clear. About as good as it gets ... pending the end of our economic world as we've known it.

     

    So, welcome aboard.
    15 Jan 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • DRich

     

    Thank you, and you Eagle is very close to being Tattooed onto my arm. Midlife crises plus a few nephews overseas..

     

    As far as Axion goes that is what i surmised from my reading but of course i am sure you folks have dug under a ton of rocks already so i appreciate a quick summary.

     

    map
    15 Jan 2012, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • If you really want to drill down into the depths, there's a wealth of information and history in my author's archive.
    15 Jan 2012, 02:20 AM Reply Like
  • John

     

    Thank you, as Maya has already given me that assignment. I chat with the gades for over a year...You come with high regards...

     

    MAP
    15 Jan 2012, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • NS got burned once on batteries. They are going to let this yard slug run for 6 months to a year. But that doesn't preclude the development of a road version.

     

    With NS, mini power cube, and others that are less definitive, Axion is getting some interest in enough different industries, that the uncertainty is diminishing. A product that fills a need in multiple industries means the company is not beholden to any one company or industry. It also solves the chicken-or-egg problem for automotive. The capacity should be higher by the time they make any decisions, but Axion can get by without them.

     

    The Bermuda model is similar to the oil fields with an exception. The peak load diesel generators may still be needed, but can be turned off 99% of the time. Currently generators have to be activated when the operator thinks there might be a need. A power cube can respond to in a few seconds, and give the generators time to power up. There are islands and buildings all over the place that can use this.

     

    By the way, electric motors need 2 to 3 time the power to start that they need to run. The generator has to have the capacity for this peak load for just a few seconds. A power cube allows for a smaller generator, so there may be capital savings, but definitely fuel savings by adding a micro-cube. There are plenty of backup power units for A/C in the world that can use this.
    15 Jan 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Funding for the NS 999 started as a 2007 Congressional earmark from Rep. Bill Shuster (http://bit.ly/x7Amfi) The unit was built and dedicated within two years. Since they used top of the line AGM batteries from Enersys (http://bit.ly/uYBkC8) the rapid battery failure was embarrassing.

     

    Norfolk began testing the PbC in October 2009 and hired Axion to develop a new BMS in June 2010 (http://prn.to/yIsD15) for the last 18 months, exhaustive testing has been duplicated at three different sites – Axion, Norfolk Southern and Penn State.

     

    NS has spent more time testing the PbC than they did building the NS 999 in the first place. They're not about to have a second embarrassment. Axion's Investor presentation talks about the NS 999 and speaks of "Additional yard switchers and OTR locomotives planned in 2012." Management would not use the plural form unless they expected to provide batteries for multiple units of each type.

     

    By the time the first PbC switcher hits the rails, Norfolk will have tested everything there is to test and it appears they have at least modest expansion plans for 2012. Assuming that a decision is a long way off may be unduly pessimistic.
    15 Jan 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • All the revenue predictions above remind me of a chart I sent a silent partner (not to silent in my ear) showing when we would double revenue based on the previous 2 years growth. He responded "Now all we've got to do is do it."

     

    While all these projections are fun they are based on an unproven premise, namely that the rail roads are going to buy the PbC's and make the locomotive conversions hoped for by all. I also think JP said the regenerative energy recapture from drill rigs lowering pipe was not feasible. I hope he corrects me and that I am wrong.

     

    So far we have a confirmed sale of 36 batteries in a mini-cube and a lot of test and demonstration programs. Long way to go to millions in sales IMHO. Yet, speaking of betting, I've bet the house on AXPW. What makes me believe it will be successful is the PbC is an improvement in a technology that sells billions in product a year now - lead acid batteries.

     

    I don't look for L-ion in all its incarnations to change that fact much. The PbC will carve out niches in that multi-billion dollar market so I have confidence of success IF Axion can survive until market acceptance and order flow.

     

    What happened to my revenue projection? 2008 and all the aftermath that resulted in me having only SS for income and swinging for the fences with Axion stock by risking the family jewels. :<D If you suggested that would happen to me at the 2006 company Christmas party eating lobster tails and sipping brandy after dinner I would have looked at you like you were insane. One and a half years later it was all gone with the wind.
    15 Jan 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • I was wrong about the energy recapture aspects of drilling rigs, but getting rid of an idling standby generator is a good deal easier and probably more cost effective. So it's one of those mistakes I don't mind making.

     

    Just remember that small companies are like babies in sub-saharan Africa. They rarely die of starvation, but they need to be really careful about fiscal dysentery.
    15 Jan 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • The way I'm understanding the situation with NS the good news is, that when the contract does come, it's going to be a solid one as opposed to the one Enersys got. I prefer it to take time and to have a really solid product than a big fireworks and a product that doesn't live up to expectations.

     

    But... from what I recall, TG did say that the Power Cube was going to be what he expected to be the first market to have activity. I don't remember if he said sales but I definitely do remember him mentionning that the Power Cube would be where he expected something to happen early in the new year.

     

    Now... what I don't know is if he was referring to the news we've had already or... if some of the sales that are in different stages, some would be in the really last stages and we could expect sales very soon (days, or weeks). No one really knows the answer to that question except the clients who will buy but let's just hope that some are ready to buy now :o)
    15 Jan 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • >sonrisa777 ... I always thought rails would lead because on the needs and they are their own customer. PowerCube into utility work or UPS was a surprise. TG did say "purchase orders in hand" ... but whose? Turn in next week for another suspense filled adventure in batteries.
    15 Jan 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • "suspense filled adventure in batteries."

     

    Electrifying isn't it?!

     

    <ducks for cover>

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jan 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Hello Maya!

     

    I'd like to start off by telling you how grateful I am for these concentrators. I love being an Axionista and I couldn't be a "real" one if someone didn't go through the trouble of having a place for us to meet. So, thank you for all the time and work that you devote to Axion :o)

     

    The reason I'm writing you today is that I am just done reading John Mauldin's letter and he said something that I was just curious to have your view on. You are somewhat of an expert with regards to the Mayan world so here is what he said:

     

    "Solving the Mayan Code
    There are so many pieces of data to go through in order to augur Europe's future – I want readers to know I have left no stone unturned! In fact, I went to some very old stones to get help with this week's letter. I began to scrutinize the Mayan Code from ancient Central America, which so many feel predicts the end of the world on December 21 of this year, bringing my fresh eyes to an old mystery.

     

    After much deliberation, I have come to this astounding insight: The Mayan academics who created the code were not in fact astronomers or even astrologers. No, it is clear they were another breed of even more dubious forecasters, called economists. Once you approach the glyphs with that understanding, it becomes clear they are not predicting the end of the world, merely the end of Europe. One symbol clearly shows the Greek flag dipping to the ground. Another depicts the Italian flag with its wheels coming off. Oh, and you don't even want to know what they have prognosticated for the French. This is a family e-letter and I can't squeeze such language past the censors. But now that I have provided the basic insight, I leave it to you, fellow scholars, to decipher the rest of code."

     

    What is your view on this? If anyone else wants to comment, feel free to do so!

     

    Sonrisa.
    15 Jan 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • One ancient Mayan stone I've seen depicts the unmistakable prairie lily, sheafs of wheat and green and gold colours of the Saskatchewan flag. The flag is born aloft by a host of angelic figures.

     

    You do the math.
    15 Jan 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hattie: Be careful with what you "may" be seeing. As the Europeans did not have chocolate, tomatoes, maize or tobacco, pre-Columbus, the ancient Maya did not have wheat.
    15 Jan 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • I think perhaps more people than myself thought this was tongue-in-cheek by John Mauldin and McHattie is giving his own version of "prophetic visions", tongue-in-cheek.

     

    After further thought, I suspect that Mauldin actually believes this to be real, which is surprising because I have only heard his name tossed around here on SA from people who respect his views.

     

    I have not read him, but by reading what he wrote here I am highly skeptical of him and would just caution against anyone reading too much into this "prophetic" jargon, and I almost certainly would not place any decisions in my real life upon such circumstantial predictions that seem to take advantage of our human natures' susceptibility to superstitious beliefs. My humble opinion.
    15 Jan 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • I'm worried about you Bang. I realize we're all in different stages of life here. I have kids starting college in a few years. I wouldn't think of risking college money on this kind of speculation. But it has become the majority of my speculative risk capital. If it works out, that's great, it not, life goes on. Some of my Axion money is coming an earlier speculation in Bakken shale. (The EPA looking for an excuse to shut it down to keep it from competing with wind and solar)

     

    In 2008 a Bennigan's restaurant chain suddenly shut down when financing could not be rolled over during the meltdown. Axion may not have any debt, but macro-events at the wrong time can bring down any company. I may feel safe on the walkway by the Grand Canyon, but that can change pretty quick in an earthquake.

     

    I don't want anyone to realize that the dog is costing them 2 axpw shares a day, so they dropped the dog off at pound.
    15 Jan 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • My wife would be very upset if I even suggested that her cats were costing us a thousand shares a month.
    15 Jan 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • When you love something, WIFE, axion stock, kids, dogs, and cats (all of which I have and in this order based off of needs) you find ways to keep them all happy. 8-))
    15 Jan 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • I like your list of priorities.
    15 Jan 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Note the relative position of the stock vs the kids. ;)
    15 Jan 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Sometimes the kids rank below the dogs as well but never lower then the cats. 8-))
    15 Jan 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for your concern JohnM121. I am a semi-professional poker player normally. What's a semi-professional poker player? Someone living on SS that plays online and picks up a few hundred to a thousand or more in a month. Yes, I have dry spells also - sometimes as long as 4-5 months, but that's part of the game. The key is to keep your losses small.

     

    I have my poker stake stashed away, but thanks to the governments meddling with online poker I don't have that supplemental social security check now. Wonderful living in a "nanny" state as JP put it writing from Switzerland.

     

    However, I'm currently caring 24/7 for my 92 year old mother and when I am no longer needed I'm heading for the nearest decent country with reliable internet service and at least one solid bank. First place in locations for me right this minute is Boquette, Panama. Perpetual Spring - 70's everyday, 50's every night. Check it out. Maybe some millionaire Axionistas would like to consider it when they cash in. AARP The Magazine has chosen the highland town of Boquete in Panama as one of the top five places in the world to retire. See it here: http://bit.ly/A9y4if

     

    I can rent this furnished house on an orange and coffee plantation for about $450 a month: http://bit.ly/AxsVqr Scroll thru the photos. Sure, I've got a lot riding on AXPW, but win. lose or draw I know what I'm going to be doing. Deal the cards!
    15 Jan 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I've always admired people who can operate by day in the same comfy clothes they sleep in. Dang. I think just described myself!

     

    Sounds dreamy wonderful, bang.
    15 Jan 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • It'll cost me a little to knock off the rust, but I know that also. Unfortunately, it is part of poker. Takes a while to get your poker instincts honed to a razor's edge. Unfortunately, that usually is by getting your head handed to you for awhile!

     

    I know you've played a few hands of Holdem Maya. Love to take you on heads up Maya. Not thinking of beating you per se, more thinking you would be a dang good opponent.
    15 Jan 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Stocks might support you in your old age. Kids want to "borrow" the down payment on a car or house ;-)
    16 Jan 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • Live long enough to become a problem for your children!

     

    That's how you get even! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jan 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » sonrisa777: It's my privilege to host this comfy living room. In a little less than six months the APCs have generated over 8000 comments. But this past week has simply been amazing. About a 1000 comments! As JP wrote to me via regular email, it appears the APCs have hit a new "inflection point." So yes, I've been a tad busy doing the monitoring/learning thing...a tookus in chair labor of love.

     

    It's quite satisfying to see all the new commenters grabbing a seat in our living room--which means new shareholders, more minds digging, sharing, asking pertinent questions, as well as having some tangential "peppery" fun, too.

     

    John Mauldin is perhaps my favorite economist writer. Though I make it a practice to read his work every Sunday, I haven't yet created the time to read this week's edition. Probably won't until tomorrow, as I have company coming over tonight; lot's of things to do around the home before they arrive, and then head out for some slow-cooked, bleeding prime rib. Yum!

     

    But you've piqued my interest as to what his theme is this week. I'll be going into his article with a skeptical eye, as I have never heard of Maya epigraphy being interpreted in the way you (Mauldin) does. There is so much cherry picking of data and of the Maya writing system out there right now that is being twisted into a logical, linear thought...to suit almost any form of illogical 12/21/12 ending of the world scenario. There is a huge selling-fear play going on right now by many alleged experts, who are using the Mayan calendar to gain limelight, and lace their pockets with cash. I can hardly watch the History Channel anymore because of the sensationalized crap they're putting out.

     

    The bottom line is that no living Maya today believes the world will end this coming December. (With the exception of a few who claim to have Mayan blood, and are being charlatans to make a buck off deluding the truth).

     

    Due to all the crony capitalism going on throughout the world, I was forced to take off my fiction writing hat before the Lehman debacle, and learn, and learn, and learn and then execute an end run to the stock market crash. It worked. But I haven't had my ear to the ground with all the Mayan developments since I spent 4 months in Honduras in 2010 (Expect to be heading back down their mid-March).

     

    The point I'm trying to make is that I hope Mauldin is on point, because I would not enjoy informing him he's been duped, too.

     

    Just want to communicate with you, so you don't feel like you're hanging, or that I ignored your comment. I will get back to you on this matter. Looking forward to it, in fact.
    15 Jan 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • You'll get a grin from John's discussion of key epigraphs.
    15 Jan 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » sonrisa777 & JP: Couldn't resist, and had to take a peek at Mauldin's latest. Mauldin provides no link or source for these flag interpretations. I believe he's been duped, just as millions were led to believe that on the sarcophagus lid in Palenque, the king, Pakal, which means "Shield," the charlatans proclaimed he was in a spaceship, and the king's sceptor Pakal was holding was a stick shift that operated the spaceship.

     

    What a bunch of bunk!

     

    Alas, people believe what they want to believe. Case in point is that NASA has stated repeatedly that there will be no solar flares coming this year (and not for another 60 years, in fact) that will disrupt every computer chip on the planet. Possibly envelope the entire planet and kill all forms of life. But, people still believe this will happen. I met a woman just last week, whose mother is frightened to death about these coming solar flares. Thinks the ancient Maya predicted this all along.

     

    Of course, Mauldin may also have been just joking around. He's way too smart to get caught up in sensationalized cherry picking spin. As for the glyph he could not write about, his site being family oriented, I know of another one that I would have trouble explaining to a ten year old. In Copan, there's a glyph of a guy on his knees, with something that looks exactly like Aladdin's lamp, the spout of this "oil lamp" is being inserted into his rectum--the guy has a big smile on his face!

     

    How did an Arabian oil lamp appear in Copan by 700AD?

     

    A while back, I was interviewed on a NYC cable station, and the interviewer quipped that he hoped no fraternity brothers were watching, as what I was saying might start a whole new fraternity hazing trend.

     

    In fact, the ancient Maya did get "drunk" that way. Only we're not exactly sure what the elixir ingredients were.
    15 Jan 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Regarding the Mayan epigraphs, I think the second one showing "the Italian flag with its wheels coming off" might be a clue to tongue-in-cheek intent since rumor has it that the Mayans didn't use wheels on a large scale.

     

    Regarding the magic lamp, Eeeew!
    15 Jan 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • JP, I second that "eeeew!" as I wipe the sweat from my brow. Thank goodness we subverted that disaster.
    15 Jan 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JP: You're correct, in part. The ancient Maya did have wheels. Their calendars are actually wheels, with cogs. The children also had something amazingly close to looking like automobiles, with wheels. There are wheel-looking roundstones scattered about Copan, of which play a gruesome role in my book (betting Rachel remembers the rapist, tied to a post stuck into the "wheel-hole," getting repeatedly whacked with a heart-of-oak stick, then burned to death).

     

    But there were no carts, nor draft animals to pull those carts.

     

    Most certainly, Mauldin was messing around.
    15 Jan 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • I thought that was supposed to be more of a "pheeeww".

     

    Sorry, I am getting really confused right now about what is real, what is false and what is supposed to be funny. ....wheels .... cogs.. spaceship coffins... and upside down Greek flags....with cherubs?!?!?

     

    I think we might need a new concentrator. :-)
    15 Jan 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • I am sure most of you saw this as well, but you never know

     

    http://prn.to/yXvbUZ

     

    This helped me take a significant position with this company, looking to add more as well

     

    map
    15 Jan 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Rosewater Energy has a new brochure aimed at the utility market, It is in PDF format here. Sent to me by Mario Bottero of Rosewater, Enjoy it here: http://bit.ly/zSB27E
    15 Jan 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • Bang, thanks for the link.
    16 Jan 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks Bang,,One thing I wonder about here, it looks like they quote the 100% depletion cycles, maybe that is the easiest way to measure, but I think pbc really shines with just the 20% depletion. Wouldnt that be a more likley scenario?

     

    100% = 2500 cycles

     

    20% = 200,000 and counting.
    I think I got that right.
    16 Jan 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • I think the 3,300 Amp-second BMW-Ford stop-start cycle is more like a 1% to 2% discharge, but it's done around an 80% state of charge, meaning they deplete the battery to an 80% SOC and cycle the heck out with 1 minute cycling. It's my understanding that the "sweet spot" cycling range for the PbC is from a 20% SOC to an 80% SOC, but I haven't seen any hard numbers on cycle-life testing in that mid-range.
    16 Jan 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • My favourite part:

     

    PRICING
    All of this can be done for a fraction of the price of
    other advanced battery chemistries. No other com-
    mercially available battery technology can compete
    with the PbC battery in all of these categories.
    16 Jan 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Did you guys see the brochure for the oil rig industry? Looks very compelling for an oil rig operator.

     

    http://bit.ly/ze5Drs

     

    (there is a link to it on the right side of the page. I don't know how to link directly to the PDF brochure, any tips on that?)
    16 Jan 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz: I just left clicked on the White Paper tag and it ran. There was a several second wait while the Adobe Reader software (resident on my PC) loaded.
    16 Jan 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Good morning, all - SA published my first instablog on ZBB. If you have time, please take a look. Thanks.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Jan 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • "In a current project with PJM Interconnection and Viridity Power, the
    PowerCube has worked flawlessly."
    16 Jan 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks John, after posting I realized tha the 2500 cycles = 7 years at 1 full discharge per day. I suppose there are other applications where someone or some utility will need to skim off the top for very short bursts or a combination of both. But the bulk of the utility app would be a full discharge scenario.
    From what you're saying the automotive application is not near as severe. Still looks like 7 years life of battery.
    It takes me a lil while, but I think I'm getting it..
    16 Jan 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » This way to the next Concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Jan 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • John/Maya...

     

    My apologies...playing catch up...for some reason SA lost me from #47/48.
    Re...thesilverbullet.
    He/she appears to be the ultimate troll.
    (...deliberately provocative...intention of causing maximum disruption and argument)...my opinion...my perception.
    Like many, I am trying to keep up with the new medium...especially investment medium...and learn/appreciate via your blogs/instablogs.
    Do you find trolls increasing? (especially as your blogs enjoy an increased following)
    Do you think there are hidden agenda?
    Is there a competitive...ego... misleading trading innuendos... segment to this?
    Just wondering out loud as my learning curve hopefully increases.

     

    Thanks!

     

    Joe
    18 Jan 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • I'm not at all sure what the motivations are, but every popular forum has to cope with those who want to silence the conversation through disruption. The only way to effectively deal with the phenomenon is to either take them on directly, which confuses the discussion even more, or follow common internet wisdom DNFTT - Do Not Feed The Trolls, which works best if a board like this one has a conscientious moderator like Mayascribe.
    18 Jan 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • I'm not much versed in troll lore, and I would imagine they do come in some very devious forms, but if I had to guess, I think TSB is probably just a brash young guy, who has had some success (thus far) and likes to talk and argue to some extent for sport... He's arrogant and not particularly deferential to be sure, but it's hard for me to see what the point of all that energy would be otherwise..
    18 Jan 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
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