Seeking Alpha

Mayascribe's  Instablog

Mayascribe
Send Message
Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 49: Beginning Jan 16, 2012, John Petersen's Follow-Up On FINRA Data 188 comments
    Jan 16, 2012 12:40 PM
    A follow-up article article by John Petersen on FINRA Data 


    Slicing and Dicing Axion's FINRA Short Data
     
    John Petersen
     
    A few days ago I wrote an article  discussing the FINRA Market Maker Short Sale data that H. T. Love was kind enough to share with me. I spent the weekend slicing and dicing with the data trying to get a better feel for when various selling stockholders influenced the market and what their relative impact was. My working thesis is that shares held by Blackrock, Manatuck Hill and one-quarter of the 2009 private placement purchasers are in strong hands while the following stockholders or stockholder classes have been pressuring the market over the last 21 months.

     
     
    Working from the FINRA data, I calculated the number of shares that flowed into the market during each quarter starting with Q2-2010. Then I allocated the selling volume to Special Situations and Quercus based on their SEC reports. All sales that couldn't be specifically allocated ended up in the unknown column. The only number that's an outright guess, rather than documented fact, is Q4-2011 sales by Special Situations, which I've highlighted in red.

     
     
    The relevance of this kind of analysis is that it offers fascinating insight into when the selling pressure was exerted and by whom. Reporting stockholders like Quercus and, to a lesser extent Special Situations, draw the bulk of the attention (and blame) because they report their activities to the SEC. In reality, the substantial bulk of the pressure came from invisible hands that were in there pushing and shoving around the exit along with the big boys. Like I observed last week, it's been like a fire drill in a sumo training stable.
     
    The importance of this kind of analysis is that it shows why the selling pressures of the past are not likely to be repeated in the future. I was surprised to see that the heaviest selling activity occurred during the Q1-2011 run up and the Q2-2011 run down. In both intervals the heavy hands weren't Quercus and Special Situations. Instead the bulk of the shares that flowed into the market came from the invisible hands.
     
    On a go forward basis I see the market as more supply constrained. The remaining shares that are potentially available for sale break down as follows:
     
    The Quercus Trust
    2,530,851
    Blackrock
    7,150,000
    Manatuck Hill
    7,200,000
    Strong 2009 Investors
    3,600,000
       Total
    20,480,851
     
    Quercus has been very consistent in its selling and I think we can plan on it accounting for 10% of trading volume until the last of its shares are sold. I believe the other potential sellers are more likely to hold, particularly if the price continues to firm. That belief and $5 will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. Since total trading volume in 2011 was 77.7 million shares, as compared with 22 million shares in 2010, the market must find equilibrium soon.
Back To Mayascribe's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (188)
Track new comments
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator by almishelvis:

     

    Thanks John, after posting I realized tha the 2500 cycles = 7 years at 1 full discharge per day. I suppose there are other applications where someone or some utility will need to skim off the top for very short bursts or a combination of both. But the bulk of the utility app would be a full discharge scenario.
    From what you're saying the automotive application is not near as severe. Still looks like 7 years life of battery.
    It takes me a lil while, but I think I'm getting it..
    16 Jan 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please remember to thumbs up this Concentrator, which can be directly found above the first comment. Thanks!
    16 Jan 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Note from the desk clerk. John's tables from the above article did not translate when I cut and pasted his article from my email account into the author's board.

     

    HardTo Love! Need your help, buddy!

     

    Hopefully, this situation can be rendered before too many comments stream in. Otherwise, it may be best to lead off the next Concentrator with the complete article.

     

    Apologies from the management for this inconvenience.
    16 Jan 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    After lurking for a while, I've got an interesting question.

     

    How do you keep the trolls (on boards that shall not be named) off the concentrator? Are you (Mayascribe?) actively moderating or is it a more passive effect -- i.e. are there simply more barriers to signing up and posting than elsewhere?
    16 Jan 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Deamiter ... I believe intolerance has worked so far.
    16 Jan 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Something can be said for the sheer power of IQ present here - trolls usually like to at least PRETEND to be the smartest ogre in the room.

     

    JP is a true adept at terminating the arguments of fools, and that is a unique and valuable resource for any instablog or article.

     

    Finally, Maya (and all instablog authors on SA) do indeed have the power to delete offending comments on their own blogs... Though I have seen this used very rarely here. Knowing Maya, I have confidence that it WILL be used only when absolutely necessary.

     

    Finally, I think DRich has it right, ie, the quick action of the long time participants to squash any nascent troll is an effective deterrent.
    16 Jan 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter,
    Since Maya created this concentrator he has the ability to delete posts that are inappropriate and posts can be reported if abusive. He has been very generous about not doing this when we've had a few trolls come along to "discuss" things, but they basically know that if they try to cause problems they can be reported to SA. Therefore, they basically don't bother.
    16 Jan 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you, HardToLove!

     

    The charts have now been imported into the body of the above text.
    16 Jan 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Maya: NP!

     

    Even though you shrunk them to fit, it's neat that you can "Click to Enlarge" still. You might want to add a line above each chart so folks will know, in case their eyes could use the help, like mine.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jan 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Next time, pal. Just happy we go it right in pretty short order.

     

    Thanks again!
    16 Jan 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Deamiter: I try to read every article linked, and every comment as closely and with as much scrutiny as I can...the monitoring aspect of this desk clerk's job. To date, I have not deleted any comments, except my own, which I found redundant, because another commenter had written exactly what I did.

     

    If there are trolls or stealth commenters, they will have a very difficult time attempting to disrupt the APCs, as I will use the delete function if spamming occurs, or a threat becomes obvious.

     

    I will also report such activity to Seeking Alpha.

     

    I want as comfortable a place as possible for Axion Shareholders, or those considering becoming one, to come into the APCs and join the discussions.

     

    Welcome to the Axion Power Concentrator.
    16 Jan 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • brishwain
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    Maya - about 3 concentrators ago a comment that I posted, along with a response from JLP, were both deleted. Any insight on how this would have happened??
    16 Jan 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good observation, brishwain.

     

    Yes. If someone makes a comment, then changes their mind, and decides to delete that comment, while the "Edit Function" is still working, all replies get deleted, too.

     

    I had a "Reply Comment" deleted yesterday, when JP decided to change his "Eeeew" remark into a fuller comment.

     

    At first, I thought it might be a SA monitor, but after thinking through how fast it occurred, I believe I'm correct that Replies to comments can get deleted, if the first person to write a comment decides to delete theirs.
    16 Jan 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Makes since if any threading occurs - the "head" has related comments linked to it (at least it *should be this way). So deleting the head should remove evrything "attached" to it.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jan 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    This is correct, Maya. That is how it works.
    16 Jan 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    JP: One thing to keep in mind, and I don't know how one might estimate this, is the possibility that a large number of shares are delivered to the market-maker(s) in a batch and then dribbled out over time.

     

    Depending on how long "assignment" to the market-makers' portfolios takes vs. how long they take to dribble out the shares, we might get misled somewhere along the line.

     

    I could be wrong on this, but here's how I suspect it could happen.

     

    Seller selects a broker and gets shares to them not as a sale but as an account opening. *Or* broker buys the shares planning to release them into the market slowly (likely if an appreciation is expected within an acceptable time-frame?) or plans to sell to their own customers. No short-sale would be flagged for whatever shares are in their portfolio.

     

    If the broker is one that also has a market-maker function, these shares are now in the market-maker portfolio I think. And no short sale should be recorded when the sales are executed.

     

    I raise this possibility only because of a few things.

     

    Some time back I commented that Quercus needed to be "selling smarter".

     

    A short while later, it became harder to tell when they were in.

     

    Then I *think* I saw some market-makers in consistently that I hadn't noticed frequently before (of course SS was in too, so ...). This may be a shaky deduction because it began in the December time-frame. But the January action sees these same market-makers being more prominent in what I observe on Level 2.

     

    I *may* have identified the market-maker that is selling for someone on a regular basis (I won't name them as my tin-foil hat is tightly in place ATM).

     

    Anyway, just wanted to raise the possibility since I saw some stuff that might throw a wrench into what had good correlation.

     

    Might not be the case at all, might be only minimal effect, ...

     

    I may be able to determine more when I start examining the monthly "tapes" that add some detail to every transaction.

     

    Anyway, I didn't want to be alone in my suspicions, so I thought I'd try and make everyone else paranoid too! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jan 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Shares aren't delivered to a market maker until he buys them. If a market maker has a block in inventory, it won't show up in the short reports because inventory is always under the MMs control.

     

    I believe market making functions are conducted in separate subsidiaries so there is no risk of intermingling firm assets and customer assets.

     

    It will be fascinating to see how the correlation holds, but I think there's something very special about the FINRA short data because the correlation with our experience is just too darned high.
    16 Jan 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    John, what do you think is the upshot? Will we have a rough repeat of early last year? Will the unknown heavies come out and sell big into the next runup? We're all operating on the well-supported thesis that Special Sits is all but out and Quercus soon will be... will the unknowns materialize in force again? And unless the ranks of Axionistas continue to expand in healthy numbers, where will the next tranche of buying power come from? We all believe there has to be a lot of sideline sitters, I guess that's the answer. Also, the other thing that's different than last year is the financing event. So those are two big differences from last year. Plus all the news and development progress. So maybe it's jump ball this time... Sorry all for the unfiltered stream of consciousness. Just having an Axion storm in my head...
    16 Jan 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    I believe the bulk of the people who wanted to sell have done so. It makes no sense to sit on a $0.57 investment for two years and then decide to cut and run just when things are starting to get fun.

     

    In the first two quarters of 2010 the total FINRA short sale volume was 17.8 million shares, or 81% of the total reported trading volume in 2010. To have a comparable dynamic this year FINRA short sale volume would have to reach 62.9 million shares in the first two quarters which simply isn't going to happen with only 20 million shares of potential supply.

     

    Things this year are very different from last year and the year before. If we go to full paranoia mode and assume that all of the 2009 investors are out to get us, the 20 million shares of remaining available supply might be enough to force a couple months of sideways movement. There isn't anywhere near enough stock to cause a replay of last year.
    16 Jan 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 481086: Watching Level 2 for the past months has shown me a most important development.

     

    It works like this:

     

    Imagine a wheel with spokes. Imagine you are the "hub" of the wheel. You yell down one of the spokes to a colleague, friend, or family member about Axion Power. They buy some shares. Now they become hubs and each start yelling down one or more of their spokes and more people buy, and then they all become hubs, who yell down their spokes to others, and others, and others.

     

    Resulting in an infusion of new investors.

     

    I personally know of at least 14 or 15 who do not use Seeking Alpha, but are Axion shareholders. I guess I can say I was a hub, and about 9 of them were my spokes. Two of them have already become hubs, because people they told, now own shares of Axion Power. So that means there's 5 or 6 people out there who now own Axion shares, who I have never personnally met.

     

    It's the closest way through using word-imagery I can figure to describe how the word of Axion Power is getting out there. There are many new Axion Power shareholders then there were only two months ago.

     

    If I could only figure out how to combine both my "church pew" theory, with my "spokes, wheels, and hubs" theory....
    16 Jan 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to both of you gentlemen for the provocative answers. I can make one confident prediction: John will have much to write about as this year (OtD) plays out and even more when it's done. It will be a firebreather. And a maneater. I can't imagine what hill we'll all be on come June, but there will be majestic vistas to survey both in front of us, and behind...
    16 Jan 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    John should we assume the FINRA data is 90%+ former private placement holders bringing their stock into street name presumably so they can sell it? Or is it possible that they are bringing it into street name and just sitting on it and not selling?

     

    If you factor in double counting the FINRA data made up 80% of the volume in some months, presumably with us retail SA members on the other side of these trades.

     

    I used to think the AXPW market couldn't handle it if one player was making 30%+ of the sales. Now it seems that Quercus could up its selling near that level and the stock would hold since a good portion of the other weak hands are gone.

     

    I guess the biggest surprise is that many of the 2009 placement investors are no longer around for various reasons.
    17 Jan 2012, 04:21 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    Maya, of the 15 that you know of, what would you say their collective holding is in dollars or shares?

     

    I too know of a few people who bought anywhere from 10k to 30k in shares. I'm wondering if this keeps up if we can expect Millions of new dollars (and 100s of new SA members) coming down the pipe. Hopefully you can get your Concentrator page view numbers since I bet that will tip you off a bit in regards to this trend.
    17 Jan 2012, 04:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Private placement shares are quirky because as long as they're owned by the original purchaser, they can't be moved into street name. That only happens when the shares are actually sold. As near as I can tell, the FINRA short sale data relates to shares that have been sold by private placement purchasers but can't be properly delivered until the conversion into street name is complete.

     

    Since April 2010, it looks like ±36% of total volume (±72% of all selling activity) has come from the private placement purchasers. So far this year, it looks like ±43% of total volume (±86% of all selling activity) has come from the private placement purchasers.

     

    That dynamic can't continue because there aren't enough shares left to allow it to continue. I may talk about Blackrock, Mantuck and the remaining 2009 purchasers as potential sellers, but I don't believe they're likely sellers.

     

    The big sellers from 2009 (the deceased shareholder's estate and Special Sits) are understandable because Axion is not a good stock for widows and Special Sits brought in a new top dog who restructured its portfolio. Quercus is also understandable given the beating it took in 2008. While I'm disappointed that the smaller 2009 purchasers have been selling, I can understand their disappointment when they expected a double with upside, but ended up with a break even. There are a lot of investors who quickly decide to go play in another sandbox if their initial strategy doesn't work according to plan.
    17 Jan 2012, 05:07 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    So right now there are approx 20M shares left from the 2009 placement (do I have that right)? And assuming that half of that hits the market before our 2012 placement, is it likely that 10M shares could be gobbled up by our current demand at a rate of 200K+ a day? That'd be a quick 2 month disposal of those shares. Then again that might be a worst case scenario, maybe the selling will stop by Valentines day.

     

    Also how quick does the FINRA data report (daily, weekly)? Can one track the sells right after they happen and compare to the previous days volume?
    17 Jan 2012, 05:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The average daily absorption rate in January stands at 353,800 shares a day. For December and January combined the average was 200,000 shares a day.

     

    I tend to see the worst case as sideways movement for a month or two and the likely case as a continued sharp inflection. The 200-day weighted moving average price is currently $0.59. If the price moves up through that technical level and holds, it's all over but the shouting.
    17 Jan 2012, 06:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » bazoooka: That's a difficult question to answer. I know of two 40,000 share owners, of which one "may" have already sold 20,000 shares this past Friday, and, if true, the only one I know of who has already sold shares. There are others in the 25,000 to 37,500 range, and another that only has 200 shares.

     

    Best guess is in the 200,000 range cumulatively. Also, I I know of several who have already increased their position; some averaging down, some averaging up.
    17 Jan 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I've seen a few of my comments go missing too. Maybe a month or so ago... plus or minus a coupla weeks. I'm sure it was a technical issue. It looked to me like the website went back in time about an hour or so and reverted to a prior save, discarding what had transpired..
    16 Jan 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I saw this as well, and since it coincided with gateway error messages and other telltales of gremlins in the SA infrastructure, I reached the same conclusion.
    16 Jan 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Yes, it's on the author board that some comments go missing from time to time. It happened to me several times on Stock Talks.
    16 Jan 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    You think it's bad here, try posting on Axion's Yahoo page. I've gotten to the point that I don't post anything without first copying it, since half the time it gets lost when I hit post.
    16 Jan 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    I have some comments that I wish would have found there way into the abyss... where is the delete button! <grin>
    16 Jan 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    I would like to know what happens when you press, report abuse. Does that go to Maya or SA.
    16 Jan 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Report Abuse goes to SA.
    16 Jan 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Maya: You published this blog at 12:40PM today I believe and a Google Alert arrived in my email inbox at 1:40PM citing this Concentrator with a link to it. That's pretty good Google awareness of the Concentrators.
    16 Jan 2012, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » bang: That's terrific! Thanks.
    17 Jan 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I sent the following email to Mario at Rosewater asking: "What is the battery referred to as the Advanced PB-Acid? Is it Ultrabattery? Here's specs:
    855 Wh
    Cycles 450 +/- (100% DOD)
    384.8 kWh
    150% More $/kWh
    99% Recyclable
    I am referring to Rosewater's Grid Brochure for the PbC here:
    http://bit.ly/zSB27E
    16 Jan 2012, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... Just a guess. Those specs look like AGM.

     

    Has anyone here ever seen a link to "actual" UltraBattery spec? I don't remember ever seeing them and I don't have anything like them in my info.
    16 Jan 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    There are two ultrabattery presentations in the proceedings of the 14th Asian Battery Conference you can download here

     

    http://bit.ly/sJOi0K
    17 Jan 2012, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Mario responded it is AGM. My mind initially inserted a "C" into the category heading of "Advanced Pb-Acid". Don't know why they didn't label that column AGM .
    17 Jan 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    Who is the competition and are they close to the same product?? Reading as fast as i can...lol..

     

    map
    16 Jan 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The competition is basically on a continuum that starts with an AGM on one end, carbon enhanced AGM and the Ultrabattery in the middle and the PbC on the other end. The best single document summary of how the PbC is different from AGM and its enhanced variants is a white paper that's available on Axion's website or here – http://bit.ly/uWo3I6

     

    There are also two powerpoint presentations from the September 2010 European Lead Battery Conference in Istanbul, one from Ford and BMW and one from BMW and Axion, that provide a lot of solid information.
    http://bit.ly/mVBVM4
    http://bit.ly/oIU19K

     

    My SA author's archive also contains an incredible variety of links to source documents and some fascinating comment streams – http://bit.ly/pYHjyh
    17 Jan 2012, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    BMW recalls 90000 Mini coopers, due to fire risk, nothing to do with batteries. A water pump fault in turbo version.
    17 Jan 2012, 04:31 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    From your charts up above it actually looks like it was the retailer that got spooked from the "going concern" disclaimer in Q4 of last year rather than Special Sits driving the price into the ground, since FINRA data accounted for a smaller percentage of the selling. In Q1 of this year the FINRA data accounts for a larger percentage yet we climbed to nearly 100%. This suggests to me that other than in Q2 2011 when the 2009 placement holders had a double after two long years and started elbowing for a profit, they are actually the stronger more patient sellers while the retailers are the ones elbowing in front of the patient 2009 investors. I think you kind of said this in your article so sorry if I am repeating it in my own words, but it is sort of a revelation to me because it puts a totally different spin on things knowing the 2009 placement holders are not necessarily the ones desperate to sell pushing the stock down, but rather retailers at different times push the price one way or the other.

     

    Is that a conclusion that others see or am I reading things wrong?
    17 Jan 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Quarterly data can provide a solid overview of generalized trends, but it's a meat cleaver rather than a surgical instrument.

     

    In a normal market holders buy and sell shares every day. That normal market activity merely reflects the individual needs and choices of the general public. The distortions arise when large blocks of stock that were previously restricted move into the market and create a disequilibrium between supply and demand. I've been active in this game for 30 years and have never been able to accurately identify factors that motivate the public market. We can speculate but we can't know. Private placement investors, on the other hand, are much easier to understand.

     

    If you think in terms of selling activity as 50% of total volume, retail investors accounted for 38.2% of all sales in Q3 and 42.4% of all sales in Q4. It's well within the historic range of variability and not consistent enough to point to a trend.
    17 Jan 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    The most remarkable part about the data is how few of the 2009 placement holders are left. That might be a good thing if one was looking for for a buying opportunity where retail demand overtakes current supply. I think now is as good of a time as any, sprinkle in a little good news from TG and it's hard to see how this wouldn't run up quickly.
    17 Jan 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    You need to remember that the allocation between Blackrock, Manatuck and the 2009 holders is a guess. It's an educated guess based on conversations I've had with the manager of Manatuck and the time I spent with him in Istanbul, but it's still a guess. If the manager has been telling me stories about what he's doing or what Blackrock is doing, the allocation could shift, but it wouldn't change the bottom line potential supply number.
    17 Jan 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Bazooka: "The most remarkable part about the data is how few of the 2009 placement holders are left."

     

    Agree and just want to add how few are willing to sell below .50 other than Quercus (almost gone) and Specials Sits (who already got their profit in the Q2 price spike). In all the quarters that the price held steady at or below the 2009 placement price of .57 the total FINRA percentage is between 25% and 31% (quercus and some others?). In the quarters that the price inclined or was above the .57 price total FINRA percentage rose to between 40% and 43%. In Q4 the increase of Special Sits selling can be attributed to the fact they already made their gains in Q2 and new managers wanted it off their books and therefore were willing to dump below the .50 figure.

     

    I guess this is just my speculation taken from the data, but it combined with some other technical analysis from HTL and others might help to put a pretty firm conviction that ~.50 is a good floor, until news hits one way or the other driving the retailer to move the price or supply just dries up completely.
    17 Jan 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    The TA side still suggests a re-trace of some kind. We seem to have entered the short-term consolidation I have been looking for several times now. It's still really too early to be sure. But part of this would be trading a range, going (maybe) a bit lower and (maybe) a bit higher around some central price point if it extends to a medium or long-term consolidation.

     

    This seems supported by buy:sell which has weakened a bit, a volume "spike" seen recently, falling volume subsequently as momentum and several oscillators have begun to lose some of the bullish tint and pps has softened.

     

    As I first stated, and still believe, we will be able to get some more lower. Right now, I could buy back my 2 x 2.5K trading blocks and be ahead. But I hope to turn them into 3K blocks, so I have to wait.

     

    0103 Vol 0340713, Sht 0099149 29.10% LHC 0.2800 0.3100 0.30 b:s 1.86:1
    0104 Vol 0699563, Sht 0200313 28.63% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.32 b:s 1.50:1
    0105 Vol 0888450, Sht 0436805 49.16% LHC 0.3200 0.4000 0.39 b:s 2.14:1
    0106 Vol 1166583, Sht 0465727 39.92% LHC 0.3851 0.4499 0.41 b:s 1.15:1
    0109 Vol 0757103, Sht 0235677 31.13% LHC 0.4000 0.4399 0.43 b:s 1:1.08
    0110 Vol 0464394, Sht 0261409 56.29% LHC 0.4300 0.4600 0.46 b:s 2.99:1
    0111 Vol 1060818, Sht 0546788 51.54% LHC 0.4700 0.5800 0.58 b:s N/A
    0112 Vol 1432590, Sht 0649648 39.67% LHC 0.4900 0.5900 0.51 b:s 1.20:1
    0113 Vol 0557629, Sht 0288831 43.21% LHC 0.4900 0.5100 0.50 b:s 1.67:1

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Totally agree "that .50 is a rather strong floor, until news hits one way or the other driving the retailer to move the price or supply just dries up completely." There is a wild card in the mix called the timing and price of the essential capital raise. Without news or a complete lack of supply my $5 bet that the capital raise would be at .40 cents (.50-20%) is looking pretty good. Only trouble is I don't want to win the bet!
    17 Jan 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3935) | Send Message
     
    BW > "There is a wild card in the mix called the timing and price of the essential capital raise. "

     

    That is indeed the wild card. TG indicated at the time of the shareholder meeting the planned shelf registration was for contingency purposes, enabling capacity expansion should the need arise. He expressed no expectation at that time of issuing shares absent need for more electrode production capacity with cash on hand sufficient to support operations thru '12Q2. Axion has sold more batteries since '11Q3, presumably at a profit.

     

    From Maya's Concentrator report on the shareholder meeting,
    "Granville said Axion does not currently need money. He does not expect the offering to occur within the next two months. The ability to have the shelf offering, which this time will be public rather than private, will expire on March 15, 2012. Granville stated that if the offering does occur, if Axion needs more money, it will be after a, "Price spike," he said, getting the valuation over $75,000,000. That's potentially a tradeable barometer, for those whom want to trade rather than hold this stock."
    17 Jan 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    Well this spike has lost about 20% already, so it must be after the next spike. :)

     

    A capital raise for capacity due to purchase orders (speculation) would seem to me as being positive news. So, waiting on the drop to buy into AXPW may not work out for those who are not already in.
    17 Jan 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I guess I missed the March expiration piece the first time. That seems a rather significant pivot. If indeed the shelf expires unused, what will that mean? How likely, really, is it that such would happen? And if it does, Is it a negative because it will signify no near-term need for production expansion, or a positive because it lifts the going concern cloud--because evidently they can then keep the doors open with organic sales. How much, in time, opportunity, reputation, money, and calories, will registering an entirely new shelf cost? All these factors to me suggest that it is very unlikely that 15 March will come and go without at least some raise of some magnitude.. as John has said before, either a smallish one just to keep things going, or a large one to expand production to meet a big order..
    17 Jan 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    481086,
    John has had this discussion with me before. It is a incorrect that the shelf expires in March. The shelf can be renewed, until it is executed, on a quarterly basis. There is no time limit and no reason to worry about this.
    17 Jan 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LabTech: Especially because Axion will likely not do the offering until the market, the purchase orders, demand they do so.

     

    But you can pretty much expect that to happen before the end of the second quarter.

     

    You're correct, though, that the offering we all expect, can happen later, after May. For me, that would be bad news. As I fully expect the need to expand to increase production will occur before then.
    17 Jan 2012, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Regardless of the legalities, I believe it's important to have the offering done and closed in March. The September financial statements were weak and had a going concern footnote. The December financial statements will be weaker still. If an offering is not completed before the financial statements are issued, the auditor will need to include a going concern paragraph in its report which is never a good thing. If the financing closes after year end but before the financial statements issue, no going concern qualification is necessary. That reason alone justifies doing the offering sooner rather than later.
    17 Jan 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Which to me, means we'll see some annoucements, coming soon.

     

    Can't have that "going concern" statement by Trego two quarters in a row.
    17 Jan 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Ah Labtech, thanks... Although I have to confess in one way I almost wish it did expire then-- just to get it behind us sooner and remove a restraining source of uncertainty. But then I realize that more time will allow for more important developments to occur, and for more heavies to finish selling, and thus likely a better price to be gotten for the offering. In short it provides TG additional maneuvering room, and I should just be quiet and be patient and leave our virtuoso CEO to do what he does best. Though I do know he will want to get it done sooner rather than later in order to avoid any going concern statement... Oy. It's painful that the older I get, the more I have to review even the simple things... ;)
    17 Jan 2012, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if we might see a bought deal on the next financing (e.g. a quick turnaround on the financing announcement because the participants to fulfill the financing are already lined up)

     

    If I missed something discussed about this in prior concentrators, my apologies. Its quite hard to keep up.
    18 Jan 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    I'd expect a bought deal rather than a wide public offering because the amount will likely be too modest for a broader distribution.
    18 Jan 2012, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Why does "going concern" terminology worry you more then a .20-.40 (hypothetical) haircut on 20M shares lets say? I'd think there is some pps trade-off the going concern can be lived with as we wait for news and orders. Or do you believe a "going concern" phrase will make raising money even more difficult if we wait past March?
    18 Jan 2012, 02:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    I've just found that going concern paragraphs make business life more difficult and frequently upset the market more than I think they should. I've never had a client that didn't try mightily to avoid a going concern qualification whenever it was humanly possible.

     

    Like many, I believe there are a couple of events expected before the end of this quarter that should help move the price out of the doldrums if supply and demand don't do it on their own.
    18 Jan 2012, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Well i hung in and finally got my price of 49 cents. Now i just sit a wait!! From my resaerch and reading your posts it may take a while but i feel confident in this venture, especially at this price..

     

    Now, again i have a lot to learn but i think i have time.....lol...

     

    map
    17 Jan 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I wanted your take on the releasing of news. It appears there are some here that believe TG should time when he release Axion news to maximize the effect.

     

    A few questions regarding that matter:

     

    --Can one even accurately predict market timing?

     

    --Suppose NS was in the bag already, is it imperative to release news that moment (assuming NS approval) or would a delayed announcement schedule like the Navy battery deal in Jan followed by NS in Feb be more favorable to the company?

     

    --What types of events, other than holidays, would delay a positive announcement.

     

    I find it hard to believe that a CEO of a R&D company would readily sit on positive news. I'm looking for some clarity on why some people believe that is happening at the moment.

     

    Thanks in advance
    17 Jan 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    I don't believe anybody is sitting on news. A man in Tom's position has a very clear idea of where projects are in the selling cycle and when they'll mature from discussions to deals. That leaves a lot of room to be confident that events will occur within a relevant timeframe.

     

    If a client of mine had news but wanted to delay for purposes of influencing the market, I'd take them to the woodshed because that kind of behavior creates unreasonable risk.
    17 Jan 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    I have mentioned in the past about the timing of news releases...mostly in hopes of more good news to get to my breakeven number. That was short-term sighted and I am in for the long-term. I absolutely do not want artificial news.

     

    I see companies holding news until Fridays or even Tesla's recent news concerning key employees leaving being released after replacements were found. Some news is held until earnings reports/calls. So, I am thinking there is some play in when newsworthy items are released.
    17 Jan 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    A123 also went on a 3-4 day PR binge in the third week of December last year with some mighty announcements back-to-back. I kind of doubt all that actually happened at nearly the exact same time. Possible, but that would have been one helluva week for their sales team. Not suggesting anything for Axion, just saying it is what it is.
    17 Jan 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    There are news releases that the law requires and PR releases that are optional.

     

    PR releases are a matter of choice and provide a degree of timing flexibility. Axion's zero energy building system probably falls in that class. The same is probably true for A123s announcements of contracts that weren't material but sounded impressive.

     

    True material news must be released promptly.
    17 Jan 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    I'm on board with everything you say. I just don't think he can sit on news.
    17 Jan 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Quibble, John. We know TG has stated there are purchase orders (in-hand). That's the information we have, but we don't know what the purchase orders are, from who(m), for what, and how much.

     

    In my opinion, that is sitting on news.

     

    We do know that TG has stated another Q1 order is coming from Norfolk.

     

    As fun as it is, everything else is pure speculation.
    17 Jan 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    It may just be the anal retentive securities lawyer in me, but there is a major legal difference between items that are mandatory news releases and items that are optional PR.

     

    The general rule is any contract that exceeds 10% of last years revenue is mandatory and anything smaller is optional.

     

    The Navy Yard contract was basically a PR piece. A sale of a PowerCube or a contract from NS would be a mandatory news release.

     

    Tom can sit on PR but he can't sit on news.
    17 Jan 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Did not know about the 10% rule; thanks JP.
    17 Jan 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    Maya are you sure about the "in hand" part. I always got the impression that TG "expects" something from NS but that it will be announced if/when it happens (meaning sometime in the future) . I don't think there is anything concrete yet but I bet TG has a good idea when things will unfold although I doubt he has any control over that process.
    17 Jan 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » bazoooka: Suggesting for you to reread TG's interview I posted in the top of one of the most recent APCs.

     

    As for NS, the order was supposed to happen in the last quarter, and got delayed. I believe TG is on record saying that an order from NS is indeed coming this quarter.
    17 Jan 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Bazooka

     

    Good question...Are potential orders in hand or expected??

     

    MAP
    17 Jan 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3935) | Send Message
     
    John, also, you made the point earlier that to some extent disclosure of sales is controlled by the buyers. And, observers wondering about news/press releases might do well reflecting on the news track record associated with BMW, GM, F and NS. Working relationships, or aspects thereof, were disclosed while battery purchase orders have not really been that conspicuous. Battery pricing information may have something to do with those realities.
    17 Jan 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MAP: Please read TG's interview I posted a couple of Concentrators ago. The answer is there.
    17 Jan 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    John.
    I know you are Not naive,but you know that a contract is only in effect when singed by both parties and dated . A contract can sit in a safe until a time which is mutually Advantageous to both parties . NS and Axion may have a time frame which suites both parties . Neither will force the other to sign before they are ready, then the news must be released. A good working relationship depends on both parties having maximum value and this will be facilitated by both. This is the real world .
    17 Jan 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Maya: "I believe TG is on record saying that an order from NS is indeed coming this quarter." Want to see that in writing. Would either be in the Q3 10Q or Conference Call Transcript. Could also be an answer during a one-on-one telephone call question to one of us after the conference call line died. If anyone knows where it is in writing please post. I can't look for it until very late tonight - got to go out for a while.
    17 Jan 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » bang: Dang! I reviewed my notes from both New Castle visits, and also went through several Concentrators of past, where I thought I could find that info. I'm sure I heard it from somewhere. Sure I posted this info somewhere. I'm almost positive I heard TG say it. Feel like I can still see him saying it from behind a podium. But...

     

    Wish I was about 20 years younger, because back then I likely would have been able to find the NS delay of the next order right away.

     

    ####

     

    Metals Are Precious: Knowing you are reading the Concentrators straight through, if you come across a comment where you see something about the delay of an order from Norfolk Southern, would you please cut and paste that into into whatever Concentrator we're on if/when you find it?
    17 Jan 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    That's absolutely true, and in the case of NS they're trying to keep the re-work of the NS 999 as quiet as possible because the battery failures the first time around were embarrassing. It's still a very dangerous practice to manage business events for the purpose of creating a desired market impact. It's also allowing the tail to wag the dog, which is something Axion has never done.
    17 Jan 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    John.
    In business the size of the tail relative to the size of the dog changes from time to time, and so does the size of the shake . Some dogs are nothing without their tail.
    18 Jan 2012, 04:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Until very recently Axion pretty much thought of itself as a boxer with a cropped tail. Market issues are becoming more important, but I don't foresee a time when market perception will outweigh business fundamentals.
    18 Jan 2012, 04:44 AM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    John.
    Very cleaver and apt analogy ,and of course the sun shines on a dogs ass better in the absence of a tail.
    18 Jan 2012, 05:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Debates about how managers might act can make for fun speculation among people who don't have enough personal experience with those managers to form a basis for informed judgement.

     

    I spent several years working hand and glove with top management and the board of directors, so I know how they think and how they are likely to behave under almost any conditions you can imagine. Conditions may change, but character doesn't.

     

    I'm occasionally taken by surprise, but those occasions are few and very far between.
    18 Jan 2012, 05:24 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I found this in APC 20, you said

     

    " A couple of things confirmed from various sources, some of which this column already guessed, or knew:

     

    --It appears the mystery university Axion is working with is Penn State.

     

    --Seems that NS is working with both Axion and Enersys and that Axion will recieve another order from NS next year. Was this the significant event TG hinted at during the June 20 Investors' Conference that was supposed to happen this quarter? That was supposed to move the stock?"

     

    Does this help your memory at all?

     

    Kent
    18 Jan 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » KentG: Yep, and thanks for doing some mining! Memory (hah!) serves me that I also wrote something about if the delay was due NS switching to the HT30, and that's what was holding up the next round of orders from Norfolk.

     

    There was subsequent debate to this idea.

     

    If Norfolk sweeps in, and a few more PowerCubes are sold to whatever company, hold onto your hat!
    18 Jan 2012, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Here is another one from APC 20. It is a comment from Astroboy7 after he spoke with TG for 15 minutes following the CC problems.

     

    "3. Talked about Norfolk Southern. I remarked that at Investor Day he said that they were still saying it would happen the end of this year but he thought it would actually happen the beginning of next year. Tom laughed and said that yes, he called that correctly. I asked if the delay is what he thought or more than that and he said it is what he thought.
    4. I asked about the other rail applications, and he said there were other customers. Basically, NSC has taken longer than Axion has wanted, even though they expected it, and felt because of the delay that they had the right to see other customers. He said that NSC wasn't too happy about this, especially because they have done so much testing (that would be carried on to other customers), and he replied that NSC has benefited from the partnership a lot as well so it shouldn't be a problem. He wasn't saying that things were bad between the two companies or that things wouldn't be going through, but I felt he was implying that there were some tough negotiations."

     

    Kent
    .
    18 Jan 2012, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » KentG: Thanks again! Astroboy7 asked some great questions. And got some nice answers.

     

    Further confirming that something from Norfolk is soon coming. Norfolk is probably negotiating like WalMart does.

     

    This is the snippet I liked most: "I asked about the other rail applications, and he said there were other customers."
    18 Jan 2012, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    My pleasure Maya. I can't stop thinkin about that future Jaguar of yours. 8-))
    18 Jan 2012, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    (XPW): As of 13:54:48, today's buy:sell had deteriorated to 1:2.44.

     

    Buy, sell, unknown 66,979 163,719 and 1,300 totaling 231,998.

     

    But this should *not* scare anyone away. It's healthy. Market's need to "take a breather". Folks need time to adjust to new price levels: buyers to accept that there's some strength at some new higher level and there's good upside remaining.

     

    Sellers at current levels to get exhausted and folks with a longer time horizon to gain control of the selling so that buyers can see potential strength.

     

    Patience folks. If you're not up to desired strength, wait for another attractive price point and/or pattern suggesting little downside risk and then buy.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    thanks for this kind of data. i have been very happy with the price action over the last three trading days but my experience as a technical trader is very limited. i would venture an educated guess and say the big run-up was the result of a liquidity squeeze and i am much more impressed with the price action in a day where the buy sell ratio is this sell heavy.
    17 Jan 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    Axion mentioned in Forbes today: http://onforb.es/w3QkYl
    Just a small reference in the last paragraph, but nonetheless. They could have mentioned JCI or Exide instead.
    More and more attention from the mainstream media. Good stuff.
    17 Jan 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    nice find f-kru
    17 Jan 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » f-kru: Great to see that a major biz mag is now writing about Axion, even if it's at the end of the article.

     

    Thanks.
    17 Jan 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    Could Axion be positioning itself as a take over target??? Just a thought that came to me reading some postings.

     

    MAP
    17 Jan 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... A subject that has been asked and contemplated in one of the bygone Concentrators. Short answer .... No.
    17 Jan 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    You know what would be fun...thinking the other way. I do NOT want to see an American company fail, but what if Axion could buy Enerdel's facilities for pennys on the dollar? In my little brain, there's our expanded capacity. :)

     

    from Enerdel...
    "We manufacture our cells in Indianapolis, in a 100,000-square-foot, state-of-the-art facility. We also have the ability to provide more cells through Enertech International, the Ener1 subsidiary in South Korea. Our battery packs are assembled only 10 minutes away from Indianapolis, in our 35,000-square-foot Noblesville facility, through a highly automated process."
    18 Jan 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The equipment and infrastructure needed to make lithium-ion batteries is completely different from what's required for lead-carbon batteries, or carbon electrode assemblies. Aside from the desks in the front office there's nothing in the Enerdel facility that would have any value to Axion.
    18 Jan 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Interesting how Forbes sort of truncated any real depth to article. I guess some editor with no clue. Or else it's just part 1. It would have taken maybe two more paragraphs to capture the AGM issue and tie it to both JCI and XIDE as well as Axion. All very investible ideas. As it stands, it's crying out for a follow up. They must know that. They have to. They can't have missed the AGM story if they did any research at all. Stay tuned and watch that space. ;)
    17 Jan 2012, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    If any of the other batteries mentioned (Zinc and Li-ion) have been thru the Stop-Start test cycle Ford and BMW used for the PbC, I haven't heard about it. Maybe they are talking a good game but don't really have a product that can compete? Interesting, if true ;-)
    17 Jan 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3935) | Send Message
     
    I read the Forbes article as much more positive about nickel-zinc and Li-ion battery use in micro-hybrids than about Axion's PbC. May just be me, but that was my take.

     

    Anyone familiar with Ucilia Wang's prior work? Or with Forbes articles re-batteries in general?
    17 Jan 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    I think these are couple of her articles, pls drag down, 4 other articles you will find.

     

    http://onforb.es/yAqUek
    17 Jan 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... It's enough for me that Forbes even knows Axion exists let alone actually mention it. I think the "more positive" inference you might read into the story is that old "Lead-Acid" bias. Ucilia Wang is, from my casual reading, a technology writer that enjoys the cutting edge ... the new .. mainly solar. Doesn't spend a lot of time doing in depth or, at least, I've not read it but have to admit only reading a dozen or so articles. Your can catch up on her over at Gigaom
    17 Jan 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    > DRich - yep for the time beeing it's nice that Axion is on the radar. She mentions Lux Research, an analyst company that John is referring to from time to time. So maybe she just glanced over a study and summed it up in the article.
    18 Jan 2012, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    I got suspicious when they mis-characterized (IIRC) the use of the PbC.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2012, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Ucilia has been writing for GreenTech Media for several years. I think the Forbes thing is new for her. While a Forbes blog is a nice feather in the cap, it's not as good a platform as SA.
    18 Jan 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    The question that interests me is how did she come to find out about Axion.
    It almost seems to me that while she may have known about the other battery makers already, she hadn't heard of Axion - but the name had been dropped into a conversation by *someone* to the point that she thought she should add Axion as an also-ran in her article.
    18 Jan 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The fog of mythology and misinformation that's been assembled by the lithium-ion battery sector over the last several years is difficult to penetrate because people want to believe. They want to believe that EVs are possible. They want to believe that battery performance will skyrocket while prices plummet. Most of all they want to believe that miracle batteries will save them from the scourge of evil big oil.

     

    I don't think there's another Contributor on SA who draws the kind of vitriol and venom I get on a daily basis, but I guess that's what happens when you debunk sweet dreams of nirvana and promise nothing but hard fought baby steps.
    18 Jan 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    I am very aware of venom and vitriol welling up within me when others pour scorn or negativity on my dream storage devise, Axion. However after three years of reading Johns teachings, I have learned to understand and disagree without being disagreeable
    It is difficult at times to be nice.
    Mds
    I have been dropping Axion and Lead Carbon batteries on to as many web sites as possible, and so have many others I am sure.
    I am very proud of my investment in Axion.
    18 Jan 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    With the exception of a few persistent trolls who try my patience, I try to be particularly nice when people disagree because nasty tends to close minds that would otherwise stay open.

     

    A favorite comment from my first SA article in July 2008 said:

     

    "It bothers me greatly that the author of this article has not done his research. Yesterday, Ener1 (HEV) won the prestigious R & D 100 Award, from the Chicago Tribune. This "Oscars of Innovation" award has been around for years and is dedicated to choosing the best new product for excellence and innovative design.

     

    Fact: Ener1 had an independent lab test its battery in a Toyota Prius. The battery increased the Prius' mileage from 49 mpg to 72.4 mpg.

     

    Fact: Ener1 has a $70 mil contract with Think! vehicle in Europe; this city vehicle has a 110 mile range and late this year Ener! will begin shipping batteries...

     

    Fact: ...from its Indianapolis plant, which has the ability to produce $450 mil worth of battery revenue next year.

     

    Fact: Ener1's battery is safe and cool even when operating under 95% stress.

     

    Fact: At the time of this writing ENER1's stock is up 12% today.

     

    I have followed Ener1 now for almost a year. Everything I've read about this company, from its R & D, to its getting its balance sheet fit, to the independent lab testings, to the building of the Indianapolis plant, all the way through to yesterday's award from the Chicago Tribune has been nothing short of a budding success story.

     

    Disclaimer: I own shares of Ener1 (http://bit.ly/x9IQzh) and Sociadad Quimica y Mineral de Chile (http://bit.ly/AA4JjS), the company that produces 60% of the world's lithium."

     

    Mayascribe
    18 Jan 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    LOL, that's a percept explanation for the extensive family of articles you have created on SA, John... One article can't tell such a deep, complex story, penetrate entrenched misinformation, and sway skeptical readers to re-examine their positions.
    18 Jan 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Some of my favorite people started out thinking I was as full of s**t as a Christmas goose.
    18 Jan 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, been there...done that. Though with me it was ALTI. :-)
    18 Jan 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. That was me. Now a total convert.

     

    Can't believe you waited over 8000 comments to pull that one out!
    18 Jan 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    I didn't go to your comments. All I had to do was go to my first article and re-read the comments. My author's archive is an awesome diligence resource, no matter what you're looking for.

     

    http://bit.ly/pYHjyh
    18 Jan 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Sorry Maya for leading John into that one ,but it sure is funny.
    18 Jan 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Gerry W: If I hadn't written what I wrote back then, I wonder if John and I would be as good chums as we are now.

     

    The story has more than one happy ending, and one of them is I made a killing off of Ener1. Enough to assist in a big way me starting up a gamer account, which from day trading I grew well over 300%, after which I liquidated back down to the starting principle, and then parked the gains back into my brokerage account.

     

    The fun continues...when Axion gets above 72 cents...and my gamer account shows it's back in the green.
    18 Jan 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2559) | Send Message
     
    That's a fact!
    18 Jan 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2559) | Send Message
     
    Have to admit the same. I ran into one of JP's articles when considering Enerdel as an investment.
    18 Jan 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Hangs head in shame over the $0.72 thing, ... but figures nobody could have predicted the big guys bailing like they have been.
    18 Jan 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting video on how 12 clean energy companies have received $6.8B in government money, and all are either already bankrupt, or are in financial trouble; Beacon Power mentioned:

     

    http://bit.ly/ymNc4x

     

    Hat tip to OptionsGirl.
    17 Jan 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Another article about the Axion/PJM/Viridity project. However, don't remember seeing previously the estimate on revenue that Audrey Zibelman quotes below.

     

    http://bit.ly/wx3lei

     

    "Axion allows them to both maintain their power sources' reliability and provide a revenue stream," said Audrey Zibelman, president and CEO of Viridity Energy Inc., a Philadelphia-based aggregator that brokers Axion's participation in the program.

     

    Zibelman estimates that for every megawatt of power working around 8,000 hours a year, a facility can make around $200,000 a year from the PJM.
    17 Jan 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3935) | Send Message
     
    Good find, jlyle! Now, if a similar estimate is available showing savings from recharging the PC at lower, off-peak hour rates the return on capital from PC acquisition costs might look pretty attractive.
    17 Jan 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    Good find, I think finally good things are beginning to happen
    17 Jan 2012, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    Maybe this is old news (Don't think so), but I was not aware of American Water's E.H. Aldridge water plant being the first back in November:

     

    http://bit.ly/wBUcxb
    18 Jan 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The original PJM release identified the curtailment service aggregators, Viridity Energy and Enbala Power, but used generic descriptions of "a wastewater treatment facility in Washington County, Pa." and "a behind-the-meter battery in New Castle, Pa." to describe the two resources that went online concurrently.
    18 Jan 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    Great anecdotal column explaining a segment for AXPW.
    When my creative, English major, writer, actor son asks me..."Dad...what the hell is this AXPW you talk about?"...and my brother asks the same...an "AXPW for Dummies" example!

     

    Thanks jly!
    18 Jan 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    8000 hours a year works out to about 22 hours a day.

     

    Is there really going to be a demand for that much?

     

    If we're discharging all the time, when will we charge?
    17 Jan 2012, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I believe when the powercube is "working" it can/will be called upon to both give up and absorb energy on a short term basis, IE fast response, but probably not to any significant DOD. Now, I could be grossly wrong about that and appreciate the correction if it's coming...
    17 Jan 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » wtb: Heck, I work about 2500 hours plus a year. And nobody pays me one dime.

     

    The key I take away from Audrey's comment is that via the Axion PowerCube, suddenly there's a quicker payback, a quicker return on investment, for installing solar arrays and wind "orchards."

     

    Given that my power went out TWICE today, I believe there's more than meets the eye with Viridity and PJM. Way more. Especially after reading jlyleluce's article he linked.

     

    Thanks jlyleluce!
    17 Jan 2012, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Frequency regulation is a grid smoothing application rather than an energy application so the resources charge one minute and discharge the next for the purpose of keeping the grid smooth. There's a very good video explanation of how the application works on Beacon's website – http://bit.ly/xDw20I
    17 Jan 2012, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Thanks. Your link was helpful in understanding frequency regulation.
    18 Jan 2012, 06:29 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Totally stole this video plus your comment on the ZBB instablog
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    which I found as a really well written concise summary:

     

    "The PowerCube is a 500 kw system that's designed to provide full plant-level power quality and reliability, along with demand charge management capabilities. In addition, 100 kw of that capacity is being used to provide frequency regulation service on the other side of the meter. The net result is a plant-scale power quality system that costs far less at the outset and generates ancillary revenue to reduce total cost of ownership even further.

     

    It aggregates several values to the owner rather than serving a single purpose."

     

    and put it up on my Facebook wall today ... where I also posted stuff on AXPW in early January :-
    18 Jan 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    It's always a bit flattering to be quoted in context and in full. Thanks for the compliment.
    18 Jan 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1889) | Send Message
     
    I added a bloc of 25,000 AXPW shares today (filled in 2 odd lots @ 48 cents ps). As HTL indicated "breathers are to be expected" in the share price.
    Thanks again to all of the Axionistas for your continuing education on this industry!
    17 Jan 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Mercy.
    You are beginning to sound like an Axionistas . Please be careful ,this concentrator is dangerous to your health ,very addictive. I am already lost ,save yourself young lady ,run now.
    18 Jan 2012, 04:44 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I hope your buy this time proves to be as prophetic as the timing of your last buy (Jan 3rd ~.32). If so you may find yourself with a steady following piggy-backing your timing.
    18 Jan 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1889) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Gerry. I don't know about impact on health, but it is definitely dangerous (short-term) to my sidelined cash.

     

    FYI -- here is some more good coverage on AXPW out today. I especially liked the positioning of it "being made in the US" and with "domestic raw materials."

     

    This chemistry creates a 3–4 times longer lifespan, a greater charge acceptance in partial state of charge applications, as well as much faster re-charging capabilities, which they claim to be at least twice as fast but can be up to 10 times faster in some applications. When compared to other chemistries, such as lithium ion, the PbC® battery offers better safety characteristics, operates at higher efficiency at C° or sub C° temperatures, and has a total life cycle cost significantly less than that of other “exotic” chemistry batteries.

     

    In addition, PbC® batteries are made in the U.S. at Axion’s operations in New Castle PA., and can be manufactured with readily available domestic raw materials."

     

    http://bit.ly/wwQebb
    18 Jan 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Mercy:
    I agree with the opinion of Gerry: This concentrator is dangerous and addictive, but AXION POWER love, attracts and persuades.
    Yesterday I was reading about: Rosewater & Viridity Power. Conclusion: The future is awesome and the train is now leaving the station.
    18 Jan 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    Mercy...

     

    "In addition, PbC® batteries are made in the U.S. at Axion’s operations in New Castle PA., and can be manufactured with readily available domestic raw materials."

     

    Great link...timely and positive USA notation...we (USA) need it!
    18 Jan 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mercy: I believe HTL is correct in that we'll see a slight dip, while we meander toward the next news cycle. Was hoping 47 cents would hold, but it looks like a 50% pop off the 30 cent battleground, that being 45 cents, is the support. As written before, we did sneak down below the 30 cent battlegorund range last month, so 40 cents is possible, which bangwhiz also predicts will be the price of the shelf offering.

     

    I can't wait to feel demolished once again the day the shelf occurs, because, in my experience, usually about three days after a secondary,
    is when the stock begins to recover.

     

    No doubt we're going to see lower prices. But buying where possibly tops is a 20% short term downturn, to catch a 500% to 1000% gain ain't bad.
    17 Jan 2012, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1889) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Maya. What I absolutely love about your comments, HTL's, John's, and so many others -- is the degree of balance between the short-term risk and long term rewards usually mentioned.

     

    As Trip likes to say -- AXPW is going into my sock drawer or should I be saying "my stockings" drawer? I am under no delusion/nor pressure for a quick buck on this one. I have plenty of other stocks for the range trading part of my portfolio. Any lower tranches will pose another buying opportunity IMHO, although I would not object to another 86% pop like I had after my first bloc purchase.

     

    Thanks again.
    18 Jan 2012, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    If you bring us another 86% up I think every man here will be out trying to coax more women to join you and Sonrisa.
    18 Jan 2012, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday's FINRA short sales were 70,167 shares out of 318,302, or 22% of total volume. One day is merely an interesting data point, but yesterday's FINRA short percentage was just a little over half of this month's average.
    18 Jan 2012, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Gosh darn it! I was going to bet a $1 to everyone that the FINRA sales would be ~22%, dead on that number. Arrgghh, lost a buck. It kind of supports my theory that the private placement holders are not as interested as we once thought with Special Sits (already made their gains) in selling too much below .50 (other than Quercus' 10%) and you could almost see the little retailers popping in their without patience dropping their ask just below the ask for the private placement, which stayed where it was most the day. A good sign to me but we will see what happens today and this week.
    18 Jan 2012, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    I think it shows that SS is on empty and Q won't be rushed. The real question is what happened to demand today? Many bought between .50 and .60 and now that its on sale the Axionistas should reload =)
    18 Jan 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    It looks like the Axionistas resorted to the standard tactic of bottom fishing and the willing sellers blinked.
    18 Jan 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Currently lurking at $.45...
    18 Jan 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    You deserve your price far more than the sellers deserve theirs.
    18 Jan 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Picked some up at .44x, now lurking at .42 and below...

     

    I am already overweight AXPW, but then again, I am using this in place of my normal oil and tech exposure.
    18 Jan 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    I was all in last week with 100k at just under $0.41. Thought that was it but my pension check arrived and my rent cheque isn't due until the end of month so I'm back in at $0.37 and lower.

     

    Just in case, you understand.
    18 Jan 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Oh we understand. 30 cents. And not a penny more, I swear!
    18 Jan 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Hmm...maybe we should call today "The Day the Stock Stood Still".
    Looks like most of the $0.25-0.30/share buyers have flipped their shares and now everyone is just staring at the price to see where it goes from here.
    18 Jan 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Folks, Duke Power decided to replace the transformer for our neighborhood this A.M.

     

    I'll post the summary I wrote before they cut my power.

     

    Have to let the "AA shakes" from withdrawal symptoms subside. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 1/17/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Yesterday we saw the minor support of $0.48 hold throughout the day. Based on the short sales and buy:sell combination, I think this was a market-maker provided support level. Since the short sales percentage and volume suggest continuing receipt of shares backing sell orders, and since I believe that we still have one or more larger sellers in the market and I *assume* they've more to sell still (meaning we may have more shares to be received to back the new sell orders) I do expect price to move below $0.48.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 67,979, 249,023, and 1,300 respectively,giving total volume for the day of 318,302. Buy:sell ends at 1:3.66 and buy:(sell+unknown) is 1:3.68.

     

    Notice the volume, buy:sell and percentage short changes as we moved from the low of $0.25 to the high of $0.59. Note the short percentage 1/17 when the buy:sell is the worst I recall seeing. This suggests to me that shares for sell orders received in the prior days have arrived in the market-maker portfolio, at some price less than or equal to our low for the day (maybe! Average price would do for market-maker purposes) and the market-maker is unloading these shares now.

     

    If this is true, the market-maker is (possibly) providing some price support until most of those shares are exhausted. When a market-neutral portfolio is obtained, price support by the market-maker should disappear. With BTIG and NITE in the market on the offer at $0.50 all day yesterday, other folks that wanted to sell had to come below that. With best bid being $0.48 or better all day, we saw the typical behavior of "consolidation" - narrow spread, lowered volume.

     

    Since short sales were low not only in percentage but also volume, and since I suspect that Quercus or some other larger seller is still in the market, I expect to see behavior typical of consolidation continue until the short-sales percentage and/or short sales volume moves towards more normal ranges. This would include some possible lower price range as a new equilibrium is sought.

     

    1229 Vol 1278042, Sht 0098935 07.74% LHC 0.2500 0.3000 0.2700 b:s 1:2.15
    1230 Vol 1220038, Sht 0195752 16.04% LHC 0.2500 0.2800 0.2700 b:s 1:1.39
    0103 Vol 0340713, Sht 0099149 29.10% LHC 0.2800 0.3100 0.3000 b:s 1.86:1
    0104 Vol 0699563, Sht 0200313 28.63% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.3200 b:s 1.50:1
    0105 Vol 0888450, Sht 0436805 49.16% LHC 0.3200 0.4000 0.3900 b:s 2.14:1
    0106 Vol 1166583, Sht 0465727 39.92% LHC 0.3851 0.4499 0.4100 b:s 1.15:1
    0109 Vol 0757103, Sht 0235677 31.13% LHC 0.4000 0.4399 0.4300 b:s 1:1.08
    0110 Vol 0464394, Sht 0261409 56.29% LHC 0.4300 0.4600 0.4600 b:s 2.99:1
    0111 Vol 1060818, Sht 0546788 51.54% LHC 0.4700 0.5800 0.5800 b:s N/A
    0112 Vol 1432590, Sht 0649648 39.67% LHC 0.4900 0.5900 0.5100 b:s 1.20:1
    0113 Vol 0557629, Sht 0288831 43.21% LHC 0.4900 0.5100 0.5000 b:s 1.67:1
    0117 Vol 0318302, Sht 0070167 22.04% LHC 0.4800 0.5000 0.4801 b:s 1:3.66

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Here’s a link to an interesting 2004 paper on frequency regulation basics and trends: http://tinyurl.com/7qo...

     

    The paper is the first link in the list.

     

    Here is another link to an article that talks about an experiment where the group that oversees the U.S. power grid proposed a change where the frequency would no longer be strictly controlled.

     

    “Tweaking the power grid’s frequency is expensive and takes a lot of effort”, said Joe McClelland, head of electric reliability for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. "Is anyone using the grid to keep track of time?" McClelland asked. "Let’s see if anyone complains if we eliminate it." http://tinyurl.com/88x...
    ---------
    18 Jan 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3935) | Send Message
     
    FPA, thanks for the links.

     

    On McClelland's mid-2011 proposal, I think there were some objections. On reading about the planned experiment I started researching the effects of power frequency fluctuations and stumbled across a document on power meters published by NIST that prompted me to pose a few questions to Edison Electric Institute, Baltimore Gas & Electric and a few other places about a week before onset of the proposed experiment. (It appeared some electric power meters installed in the past rely on power frequency to meter power usage.) A response took six - eight weeks and indicated the experiment had been postponed till a time to be determined later.

     

    FWIW, I read my power meter morning, noon, and evening for three weeks during the proposed experiment time, noting power meter reading, time on electric range clock display, and time display on my mobile phone. Time readings on the grid-connected range display and my mobile phone, varied as much as three minutes.
    18 Jan 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    That's really interesting D... it makes a lot of sense too... some meters might run like a clock... you would think the head of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would know that.
    18 Jan 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the president is going to bend to the will of the evironmentalists and reject the US-Canadian pipeline in an election year.

     

    http://yhoo.it/zv3mqf
    18 Jan 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    cue my rendition of the e-trade baby shocked face...

     

    say, anyone know how to spell "tool" in crayon?
    18 Jan 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Whether in crayon or ink, the mirror image of "tool" is "loot".

     

    I hope Voldemort (my own alias for the Prez - I avoid using his name, which triggers hordes of trolls wearing out the search engines looking for critics) pays a heavy political price...
    18 Jan 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This completely upsets me. As T. Boone pointed out, this is a Saudi Arabia-sized strike that if we don't use, China will.

     

    Don't we need some high paying jobs, too?

     

    Another confirmation that we have a moron as our leader. Like we need more confirmation...
    18 Jan 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way to the next Concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Note: Lab Tech, I had difficulty in getting my...please remember to thumbs up this Concentrator...comment in the next Concentrator, between that and a phone call, there was a lag, and I missed that yours was the last comment.

     

    Still can't get the please remember comment to post.
    18 Jan 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Obama has been wrong on energy forever.

     

    Boone Pickens certainly has his agenda.

     

    But Lord knows that this was a NO brainer.

     

    Jobs! Lots of them!

     

    Energy supplied by a FRIENDLY neighbour at a good price!

     

    Why reject that and send all that energy to China?

     

    Plus being anti Nat Gas!

     

    Where does Obama think the energy to power the USA will come from? Not Solar, Not Biomass, Not Algae....ah I know,
    Capital Hill!!!

     

    Good luck USA!
    18 Jan 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    This may be just what was needed by non-"Inside the Beltwayers" to assure he's unseated in the election.

     

    Green in the wallet, to paraphrase John Petersen, is more important to most folks than the green in their bling.

     

    And when he rejects something that is arguably greener than most of our current energy sources *and* would create lots of good jobs *and* benefit our balance of payments (reducing imported oil) *and* reduce the need for the military to protect so many external oil sources (at the sacrifice of our citizens), ...

     

    Well, if folks can't recognize a mistake of that magnitude we likely deserve what would come by electing him again.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Apparently the oil isn't "low carbon" oil, so they don't want to use it because it will put more pollutants into the air. As opposed to what...coal?
    18 Jan 2012, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Some details of the jobs at stake:

     

    http://bit.ly/wv4sJI

     

    That being said, there were a LOT of people in Nebraska that objected to the original route including the Republican Governor.

     

    Y'all are all about states rights, correct?

     

    Here's a little background:
    http://bit.ly/yun8Bd
    18 Jan 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    WTB: Amen on the states rights. But I heard, on CBNC today, an interview with someone that discussed the "sands something-or-other" being of concern to the citizens and that a new route had been selected which satisfied those concerns.

     

    *If* that is true, I really don't see how the POTUS and his cohorts could object on an environmental basis.

     

    Off to read the link you offered. Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >HTL ... The "New" route, such as it is, has not been committed to a map. There are 2 (possibly 3) alternatives. The states involved haven't settled on one yet but they're working on it. Unless your a fan of the Feds just telling everyone what to do, the objections of the state of Nebraska are being upheld by Obama and it is a little early to "green light" the project. I know that is not the proper "Right-Wing" thing to say ... but, hey.
    18 Jan 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Drich, You always have a good sensible response. It is true that Nebraska, republican state, has voted down the Keystone Pipeline route as it has been drawn up. So it makes for an interesting argument for those conservatives that believe it should fall into states rights what goes through their state and those liberals that believe it should not be built right now, even at a time that the economy could use the jobs, energy, revenue the most.

     

    I guess choosing between a liberal or conservative view is not as easy as it appears...sometimes.
    18 Jan 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >jakurtz ... For reasons of their own, the people that get listened to go straight for the extremes. Makes for good TV and lousy reality.
    18 Jan 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    I agree with everything you said, but it's not like they can't be agreeing on a new route while they start building the thing. It's a long way from Canada to Nebraska. Something tells me they don't need until 2013 to figure out a better route, especially when the Canadian company had already agreed that they would change the route to one acceptable to Nebraska. Just an excuse to push the decision until after the election to try and get all the "green" votes. IMHO.
    18 Jan 2012, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    If it was merely matter of working out the details, much could still be gained by declaring the pipeline approved in concept and avowing an administration commitment to its completion. In so doing much uncertainty could be eliminated and much preliminary work could proceed. Time is money, and the country has got to learn to stop wasting both.
    18 Jan 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... Approval in concept would be met with just as much vitriol from the Right for Obama stepping on the states proposing a new route to satisfy Nebraska. For the present the Feds need to stay out of it until there is something to decide. This way he makes points with the Environmentalists while doing the only rational thing, before making the decision we all know he will make ... build it. One added bonus is that this is good negotiating tool to trade with.
    18 Jan 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Whatever it is, it sure doesn't look like leadership. Which literally means to show the way forward. This is try-to-have it both ways by voting present. Placate the environmentalists with a falsehood, waste everyone else's time.
    18 Jan 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... I've never read you to be a big fan of the Federal government but I might have been reading that wrong and your in favor when a particular mindset is in charge. If you really want to point a finger at who is holding up the show, contact the people in Nebraska that put the first objections in. They weren't environmentalists (well, they weren't the dirty hippie types).
    18 Jan 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    http://yhoo.it/zv3mqf

     

    From the story:

     

    "U.S. President Barack Obama said TransCanada's application for the 1,700-mile (2,740-km) pipeline was denied because the State Department did not have enough time to complete the review process.
    "This announcement is not a judgment on the merits of the pipeline, but the arbitrary nature of a deadline that prevented the State Department from gathering the information necessary to approve the project and protect the American people," Obama said in a statement.
    With environmental groups concerned about carbon emissions from oil sands production, the administration in November delayed a decision on a presidential permit for the project until 2013."

     

    DR, The good people of Nebraska certainly have a say in where the pipeline should run. But this process is three years old already. When did they first make their route-specific objection? Shouldn't there have been a specific cutoff date for that kind of input? And anyway now the proposed route circumvents the Sand Hills. But really how much more time do we think it should take? As much as Yucca Mountain? Do you really think that for the administration this is all about protecting the valor of Nebraska's State rights? I've never called anyone a dirty hippie, but it's clear that for environmentalists this is all about tar-sands oil in general, and indeed all oil in general, and that championing Nebraska's specific issues are just a convenient tactic and the latest thing for them to hang their hat on. I'm not calling for the Fed gov't to run rough-shod over the states, only to stop the obstruction and make a decision. The plain fact is the administration opposes this project for ideological reasons, is afraid to say so publicly and plainly, and instead is simply determined to slow-roll it until after the election. And if everyone knows it's going to be built in the end anyway, then why all the drama? If there was nothing to decide, then what was today about? And for the record, I have no antipathy towards our Federal Government, I have loyalty to it. But I do detest sclerotic bureaucracy. And this to me is that at its worst.
    18 Jan 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... Today was all about a deadline imposed for political reasons. Yes, to the enviros, it is all about the tar sands. To the people of Nebraska it was something else. Obama may not be in favor of it but it is now back on the original time schedule it was on before the deal. Best I can tell, no time has been lost.

     

    I didn't mean to say you were making the "hippy" reference, it is just the common dispersion which I'm sure I will hear. The original objection arose in Nebraska for local reasons and enlisting the anti-oilsands enviros was a very easy sell. If the states had an agreed upon solution I might be on board with the wrenching & whining that is going on. Simple truth, it is not a resolved routing between the states, that agreed to rerouting it on Nebraska's objection, or the treaty terms have been fully worked out with Canada. When you've got 7(?) governments involved in making a decision guided by ... who knows how many corporate entities ... well, bureaucracy is a messy business.

     

    It's silly season and very difficult to get a straight fact right now. To me, a Texan, building a pipeline is a no-brainer. The big hoopla is just one more reason to divert attention.
    18 Jan 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I'm with you on the no-brainer, and I know the process is necessarily going to be messy. How messy it has to be is I guess a good question. It is indeed silly season, and I'm sorry for my part in unduly raising the temperature. All I care is that the thing gets built, in a responsible and timely way, with the end result being a strengthening of our infrastructure, economy, and national capacities. I bet you basically feel the same way...
    18 Jan 2012, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... Ahem to that.
    18 Jan 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I can't believe something could not be worked out. That's one of the big problems with "leaders" today. Everyone want to make a big grand stand play to help insure their election, but the needs of our country are ignored.
    18 Jan 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    You mean operating efficiently like, "Hey, we (fed gov.) are going to approve this pipeline but you states need to work out where it is going to run."

     

    The states either agree on a route or they don't get the revenue, jobs etc. I wonder if it would work?
    18 Jan 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    JAK: How about the Feds return the revenue taken from the states in the first place?

     

    I don't care for the Federal coercion that is the norm, using money taken from the people they coerce.

     

    Oh! You want to rob me? Here, use my pistol!

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    One of the most charming aspects of life in Switzerland is that the federal system is alive and well and the people have prevented the concentration of power in Bern. My annual taxes are higher here than they would be in the US, but there's a great sense of satisfaction seeing a third go directly to my local community, a third go directly to my Canton and a third go to the federal government. Separation of powers and purses is a wonderful thing.
    19 Jan 2012, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Amen to that John. Amen. I'll be voting for Ron Paul in the upcoming election simply because I think our Federal Government has oversteped its rights vs states. He's the best candidate I have.

     

    I have no problem with amount of taxes I pay, I just believe that the pyramid is flipped. I'd rather my taxes flip to the majority to local, then state and then Federal.

     

    When you see local issues like states drinking age, DUI limits etc being linked to Federal Highway dollars and threatened to be taken away 100% for a federal road it makes no sense. I'm from Wisconsin and in reality so much of our statebudget from education is linked via regulation or cost sharing with the Federal government that the state gov't has lost much of its power in the last 50 years.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Since my local community has a population of 800 and most of them are farmers, my tax payments matter and it's good to feel like my payments make a difference.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    I currently live on a farm next to Father in Law who has been a farmer his whole life. At the end of the day that I know that if I have a problem he can tell me who to call and generally its their home number. Its refreshing.

     

    I can also call my local state senator and get a meeting with him.

     

    It took me over 10 phone calls and 5-6 face to face meetings with our Social Security offices, IRS and Medicare to prove that my grandmother was not dead when the IRS declared her dead in 2007. Just like the environmental idea "Think Global, act local" I prefer the "Learn Globally, govern locally"
    19 Jan 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • $LINE shorts finally getting squeezed? LINE's largest holder, Omega Advisors, are "comfortable" with their $200M holdings of LINE
    Jun 18, 2013
  • I will be on Mad Money tonight in Cramer's Lightning Round with stock pick $LINE, which yields almost 9%, and yet hit a 52 week low today.
    May 30, 2013
  • Axion Power (AXPW) announces Dec. delivery of batteries to Norfolk Southern for new all electric yard switcher. Shares up 9.87%
    Jan 11, 2013
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.