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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 50: Beginning Jan. 18, 2012, John Petersen's Follow-Up on FINRA Data  193 comments
    Jan 18, 2012 1:40 PM
    A follow-up article article by John Petersen on FINRA Data


    Slicing and Dicing Axion's FINRA Short Data
     
    John Petersen
     
    A few days ago I wrote an article discussing the FINRA Market Maker Short Sale data that H. T. Love was kind enough to share with me. I spent the weekend slicing and dicing with the data trying to get a better feel for when various selling stockholders influenced the market and what their relative impact was. My working thesis is that shares held by Blackrock, Manatuck Hill and one-quarter of the 2009 private placement purchasers are in strong hands while the following stockholders or stockholder classes have been pressuring the market over the last 21 months.

    (click box to enlarge) 

     
     
    Working from the FINRA data, I calculated the number of shares that flowed into the market during each quarter starting with Q2-2010. Then I allocated the selling volume to Special Situations and Quercus based on their SEC reports. All sales that couldn't be specifically allocated ended up in the unknown column. The only number that's an outright guess, rather than documented fact, is Q4-2011 sales by Special Situations, which I've highlighted in red.

    (click box to enlarge)
     
     
    The relevance of this kind of analysis is that it offers fascinating insight into when the selling pressure was exerted and by whom. Reporting stockholders like Quercus and, to a lesser extent Special Situations, draw the bulk of the attention (and blame) because they report their activities to the SEC. In reality, the substantial bulk of the pressure came from invisible hands that were in there pushing and shoving around the exit along with the big boys. Like I observed last week, it's been like a fire drill in a sumo training stable.
     
    The importance of this kind of analysis is that it shows why the selling pressures of the past are not likely to be repeated in the future. I was surprised to see that the heaviest selling activity occurred during the Q1-2011 run up and the Q2-2011 run down. In both intervals the heavy hands weren't Quercus and Special Situations. Instead the bulk of the shares that flowed into the market came from the invisible hands.
     
    On a go forward basis I see the market as more supply constrained. The remaining shares that are potentially available for sale break down as follows:
     
    The Quercus Trust
    2,530,851
    Blackrock
    7,150,000
    Manatuck Hill
    7,200,000
    Strong 2009 Investors
    3,600,000
    Total
    20,480,851
     
    Quercus has been very consistent in its selling and I think we can plan on it accounting for 10% of trading volume until the last of its shares are sold. I believe the other potential sellers are more likely to hold, particularly if the price continues to firm. That belief and $5 will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. Since total trading volume in 2011 was 77.7 million shares, as compared with 22 million shares in 2010, the market must find equilibrium soon.
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Comments (193)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from Focal Point Analytics:

     

    Here’s a link to an interesting 2004 paper on frequency regulation basics and trends: http://tinyurl.com/7qo...

     

    The paper is the first link in the list.

     

    Here is another link to an article that talks about an experiment where the group that oversees the U.S. power grid proposed a change where the frequency would no longer be strictly controlled.

     

    “Tweaking the power grid’s frequency is expensive and takes a lot of effort”, said Joe McClelland, head of electric reliability for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. "Is anyone using the grid to keep track of time?" McClelland asked. "Let’s see if anyone complains if we eliminate it." http://tinyurl.com/88x...
    ---------
    18 Jan 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Please remember to thumbs up this Concentrator.
    18 Jan 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    f-kru: you suggestion about a PbC mini-cube in the lat concentrator disappeared.

     

    Just wanted to tell you I began wishing for one 6 months ago when a brand-new APC 1200 VA BBS had a "battery fault" reported two days after a power failure. I had the computers shut down in about 6 minutes (should have been good at least 15 minutes) so it should not have sulfated.

     

    Last week ditto. This time I had all shut off in <= 3 minutes.

     

    But with a three year warranty, it's just an inconvenience as I get on the floor with a phone to APC to get new batteries shipped.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I'd love a PV paired with a mini-cube in my house, but I didn't write the comment you're referring to. Maybe this one got deleted along the Silver BS user's comments.
    19 Jan 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): At 13:40 buy:sell was ~ 1:1.1 - 60K/66.3K.

     

    At 14:05:04, a 10K $0.44 went by, likely in response to prior sells at $0.45 triggering a stop. We came right back to $0.45/$0.46, so it may hold.

     

    But I think it ruined the buy:sell ratio.

     

    Maya, $0.45 has acted as a minor stop one time (?) before, but the mid-point you picked was using too high a low I think. I used $0.25 as my low and see a mid-$0.30 if we do a "reversion to the mean".

     

    But $0.40 has demonstrated as a good resistance/support point and even $0.43 might offer some.

     

    Anyway - I'm looking to add my trading blocks back around that $0/40 area if things don't convince me waiting is better.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Was lots of buyers waiting at $0.45 - volume more than doubled as of 14:34. That's a hopeful sign.
    18 Jan 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    HTL....the heavy handed sellers are back. My charts suggest .30's too unless news comes soon. Hope you get electricity soon, I miss your posts.
    Ever thought about a PowerCube for home? lol
    18 Jan 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Thank you - it helps to know what I'm chasing may be useful.

     

    On the mini-PC ...

     

    Yep. F-Kru posed the same thought but it disappeared. Answered him in #50 concentrator

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    CNBC doing a story at this moment on E-bikes.. didn't someone here predict their growing popularity in the US?
    18 Jan 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    Bottom fishing away... I got a partial fill at .43.
    18 Jan 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Me too. Picked some up at .44x, now lurking at .42...
    18 Jan 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    Focal.... I dare congratulate you early (30 minutes to go) on possibly nabbing the low water mark of the day. You beat me by .02 ;-)
    18 Jan 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    opps.... make that a penny.... public math lol
    18 Jan 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    Got my 20k shares at .43 when someone wearing a cape elbowed by me, knocked me down and snagged some shares at .42. By the time I got up, they were gone.

     

    Not sure yet where my next buy point will be. I am going to watch it for a bit now.
    18 Jan 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    S&P 500 breading out to new highs... adding to AXPW on the dip.
    18 Jan 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    FocalPoint: Thanks, I'm looking through this paper now. Below is a comment I wrote a couple of minutes ago that I was going to submit when I saw your post. It sounds like Ms. Zibelman was referring to "Regulation" and "Spinning Reserve" with the former lasting for minutes and the latter 10-120 minutes. Maybe Spinning Reserve describes what Mr. Granville was referring to in the quote I reference below.
    --
    A couple of questions derived from the articles posted by jlyleluce and Mercy.

     

    The latter article states that a power cube can deliver 1 megawatt for 30 minutes. Is that correct? I thought the peak figure was 500 kw. If it is the former, then would that mean that a single powercube could earn the $200k/year in the grid smoothing role?

     

    If memory serves, $900k for a powercube would bring a 4.5 year payback for this application alone.

     

    Next question relates to the intensity of the grid smoothing role. If one megawatt hour is worth about $100 ($.10kwh) then to make $500 per day implied by Ms. Zibelman, we’d have to have something like 10 1 megawatt events of 30 minutes each at that price. Of course, if the pricing is 10x then we’d only need one such event per day. In the former case, it would seem to leave little room for the powercube performing other routine tasking although of course it could still provide backup power for outages.

     

    Later in the article Mr. Granville is quoted: “Granville said the PJM is typically looking for short periods of curtailment - around an hour - and said he anticipates the New Castle facility will bid on these opportunities on a daily basis.”

     

    Now, this strikes me as a little bit of apples and oranges. A powercube generally (also stated in the other article) can’t deliver its full output for that long a period (depending on the inverter/battery ratio) and for events happening on a daily basis, you probably wouldn’t want to drain the batteries below 20% state of charge.

     

    I guess what I’m thinking is that if the events Ms. Zibelman is talking about last for only a few minutes apiece, then possibly a single powercube could generate $200k/year. If the events (at full load) typically last around an hour, then it would seem that one would need two, or even three powercubes to be able to deliver 1 megawatt for that period of time, driving down the payback to 9 years.

     

    A less than 5-year payback might make it feasible for a purely financial investor to purchase powercubes specifically for this purpose while a nine-year payback puts this squarely in the realm of needing another revenue stream or justifying purpose.
    18 Jan 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    You're focusing too tightly one one application, and that leads to confusion.

     

    In a behind the meter facility like the New Castle PowerCube, the goal is to aggregate as many value streams as possible. The first purpose of a plant-scale facility is power quality and reliability - the so called UPS function. The second purpose is demand charge and time of use charge management. Tertiary benefits that flow from the Viridity relationship include demand response and frequency regulation service revenues.

     

    When aggregating value streams, the goal is to give the end-user the primary values it must have and the cost reduction values it would like to have. The ultimate goal is minimizing total cost of ownership.

     

    The purpose of the PowerCub is not to put the end user in the FR business. It's to make sure his plant has all the power quality and reliability it needs at the lowest possible net cost.
    18 Jan 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for following up on that apmarshall62.
    18 Jan 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    We're always looking for a PowerCub (sic) here in Chicago :-)

     

    But seriously, let's not forget where and how does the Solar array fits in the picture for the "demonstration unit."

     

    As I posted (and some discussion ensued) on the ZBB instablog,
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    my Google Alerts spit out yesterday a reference to the Princeton Data Systems Inverter PDF that I think is being used in "our" PowerCube, I presume because the document got updated in some way:
    http://bit.ly/z8p1Bi

     

    Please help me understand what I may have goofed up below:

     

    I presume the batteries can get charged from either the Gird or the Solar Array, but I would like to understand how that works.

     

    As for the efficiency mentioned, I'm not exactly sure what it refers to.

     

    Some scenarios I can dream up with would a varying number of "conversions" between AC and DC:

     

    1) Converting the PV Solar DC power "directly" to the AC output port to the Factory. Is there enough "juice" that it doesn't need to be augmented by the Grid? If it needs both power sources, can it "combine" both at the same time?

     

    What if a big ole cloud storm comes over ... does the Solar power need to be stored (always) in battery strings first to provide a smooth constant stream as output?

     

    2) For whatever reason, they decide to store the Solar PV DC output in the batteries. Are there efficiency hits both in and out of the batteries? The Solar PV seems to be an input to the inverter, and not somehow "directly" to the batteries in some other way.

     

    3) For some reason, we use some Grid Power to charge the batteries and at the same time run the factory. This would be the case if there wasn't a Solar Array on site and might be aimed at taking advantage of different charges for different hours, not to mention different factory energy requirements at different hours.

     

    Might also be the case if we had significantly discharged the batteries after responding to a Viridity request for a "demand response" say at late afternoon or evening when there were no Solar Power available to use for recharge, and we want to recharge the batteries in anticipation of the next "event" or say later potential nighttime power outage.
    18 Jan 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The solar array is a pretty small component, so my guess is that the DC is dumped directly into the battery so there's only one conversion. The rest is out of my depth, but 500 kW is a lot of electricity and it wouldn't surprise me to learn that the average plant load is lower.
    19 Jan 2012, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Just as electrical panels are customized to the local need from standard parts, so can a 'Cube be.

     

    A 'Cube breaks down into

     

    o Inverter: Provides AC power to the user. These are modular, so they can be of any size into the 20 megawatt range. They can be synchronized in gangs.

     

    o Converters: Provide DC power for recharging batteries. These too can vary in size and number.

     

    o Batteries. Strings are series-connected groups of batteries.There are many strings in a unit, with each string being severable from the operation for maintenance or such. Additional strings can be provided in additional "reservoir" containers.

     

    o A battery management and monitoring system. Modular too. Very small micro-controller modules individual batteries, reporting to a control system. These report batteries that are falling below standard, and help balance the individual state of charge among batteries in a string.

     

    So if you want a 1 hour of energy, you can have an additional battery/BMS/converter reservoir module. If you want more power, you can have a bigger inverter.

     

    If there is a need, there is the ability to meet it using a different mix of standard modules. I am not sure that one-offs are the way the business will unfold, but if there is a viable need, there should be a viable solution within this system.

     

    kt
    19 Jan 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    Partial fill.... tight market right now...
    18 Jan 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    @ .44 Happy to get some more under .50 !!! ;-)
    18 Jan 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    The silver lining to this big price decline since 58 cents is the renewed ability to pick up shares cheaply. All the recent hubris of champagne and trains leaving the station told me that the price reached a near-term top.

     

    I suspect we won't reach 25 cents again, but I expect continued selling pressure until material positive news of orders.
    18 Jan 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    have to chill the break even champagne for a while longer. It was originally for new years, then for my b-day, then break even and missed celebrating all three occasions. My daughter called me a few weeks ago on my b-day to wish me happy birthday, and I had no idea it was my b-day.
    18 Jan 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jlyleluce: Me, too. Have another bottle in the fridge. But I won't be ripping that cork until we have a full week above 55 cents (my average share price cumulatively from both my gamer account and my brokerage account).
    18 Jan 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    There are a lot of pending catalysts for both the company and the stock, and in truth, any one of those things could drop *any day now*. TG could announce a bought deal on good terms. Norfolk Southern could announce an order or even just testing success. Another PowerCube gets sold or even several. An oil rig deal gets made. BMW says something favorable. GM or another automaker pipes up. Yet another article appears, again raising Axion's profile another inch . EastPenn could extend or expand their contract. etc etc... Meanwhile we all watch the hourglass as the last of Quercus' shares inexorably dwindle down to nothing, we all await confirmation of Special Sits "has left the building" status. And throughout all this the Gen2 line grooming continues...the number of people who've heard of Axion grows, the number beginning their DD grows, the number completing their DD grows too... among them perhaps a HNW individual who decides he needs a million shares, today.. So yes, things could happen quick. Whiplash quick. Or yet more grind for a while. The next ten-cent run could be a head-fake or it could be that start of a sustained move. Like John has said, we won't know for sure until it's in the rearview mirror. So HTL is right, maintain a core, use a smaller block to trade. But this Spring is bound to be eventful. The time is ripening fast...
    18 Jan 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Note from the desk clerk: Because of numerous complaints, even some from people who rarely ever comment on the APCs, all of thesilverbullet's comments have been removed. Further, all replies to TSB have been removed. And further yet, all derivative comments streams have been removed. Even my own.

     

    This person has before tormented and caused havoc in QuickChat under the identity of "thistimeitsforreal."

     

    I will not tolerate this here.

     

    I ask all of you to not acknowledge any more comments from thesilverbullet, and will be removing all comments made by TSB hereforward.

     

    He has been reported to SeekingAlpha as an abusive commenter. Tomorrow, I will be writing to Seeking Alpha founding father, David Jackson, about this matter.

     

    I did not find this decision easy to make, but regret that I did not make it sooner, as I've known for sometime who this person is.
    18 Jan 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • tocoadog
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    Glad I was away today...

     

    Maya - sorry to bother, what is the quickchat I occassionally see mentioned? Thanks in advance.

     

    ...and thanks for managing this insightful group.
    18 Jan 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » tocoadag: QuickChat is the mother of all Concentrators on Seeking Alpha, where many gather to chat about any subject; stock picks, geopolitical events, science, to link in news from all four corners of the planet, even how to better polish silver! An unwritten goal us QuickChatters hold, is to stay ahead of the main stream media, to have an open and civil discussion as to where the markets are heading, almost in real time.

     

    A bunch of brilliant news junkies, all hanging in the same living room. There's nothing like this anywhere on the Internet.

     

    Here's a link to the latest QuickChat thread, our 221st:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Jan 2012, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1822) | Send Message
     
    Good move Maya. From my perspective your action honors the consistent value and grace which have become such a trademark of this Concentrator. I celebrate the good AXPW buys several folks added today -- for trading -- for holding -- or for starting to build a core base as I have just barely started to do. I genuinely appreciate the generosity of spirit so many Axionistas have demonstrated in welcoming new shareholders who are buying at 2012 entry levels.

     

    I also wanted to share an observation: during my two bloc purchases I have not found access to the shares -- as easily or as quickly as other penny stocks I have purchased in the past. For example, an outfit like Fidelity informed me of the following during my two trades:

     

    1) First bloc: Fidelity cannot execute an OFF-HOUR trade for AXPW online OR by phone -- regular market hours only. They have only one electronically linked broker for AXPW and that one does not execute before or after market hours.

     

    2) Second bloc: When I asked a trader why my order yesterday was not getting filled even though I could see others at the same bid getting filled -- he indicated that with AXPW the ordering is not "centralized" (whatever that means) so they had to go out to other brokers (besides the one they are linked to electronically for AXPW) to fill the order piecemeal which added time. In a declining price trend -- not a problem for a buyer -- but this delay is not so good when the price is on an up trend.

     

    The bottom line is -- that if I am having to go through these hurdles for moderately small blocs when a big seller is currently active -- I hate to think what happens when that well dries up. The new share issuance (whenever that takes place) may present additional price pressures -- but perhaps it will help in keeping some modicum of volume liquidity. In any case, for someone like me who has just started building a core position the hurdles may grow down the line. On the other hand -- that's probably a good challenge for AXPW to have!
    18 Jan 2012, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    Sorry Maya. I know it sucks to be the heavy, but sometimes there has to be a grown-up in the room to enforce the rules.
    18 Jan 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for protecting the integrity of this valuable resource Maya.
    18 Jan 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • bobhaeger
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Maya. I thought Silver's rants sounded familiar.
    19 Jan 2012, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    He ain't heavy, he's Maya brother... <snare, cymbal>
    19 Jan 2012, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Would the oil drill rig application work the same for natural gas fracking? Are they the same rigs? Anyone know?

     

    Maya, good job on getting rid of silver.
    18 Jan 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    batt, drilling operations for oil and gas are pretty much the same. Conversations with a high school classmate who worked on drilling rigs for several years longer than I did lead me to believe all or virtually all drilling rigs operating in this country (and probably Canada) for the past 25 years or more have been PowerCube candidate diesel-electric technology.
    18 Jan 2012, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (729) | Send Message
     
    Reached out last week to an accountant for EOG who I went to high school with. She knows nothing of the tech of drilling but promised she'd send it to a few guys she spent a week with in the field in middle of nowhere North Dakota.

     

    Got a response last night of "Guys say its pretty cool and should work. What are the economics for one? NPV/IRR/etc" That is all the confirmation I need. I think this could be big for Rosewater if they get infront of the right people which I expect they would. From an accountant/finance guys perspective (mine) and hers the only thing I would add to their presentation would be a NPV chart at different fuel prices and a clarification if the #s they are seeing in utilization of the generators and fuel savings are based on models or a real study. They state a "model" but they look real to my eyes. My guess is that we find out more in time.
    19 Jan 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Does your friend know if Rosewater is talking to them?
    19 Jan 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (729) | Send Message
     
    The field guys haven't heard anything around them but that doesn't mean anything. She is a simple accountant and not in the area that would be looking at NPV on these rigs. She said she'd make a call for me but not to expect much.

     

    I hope Rosewater is talking to them as they are quite large.
    19 Jan 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    Another company I like a lot is Gasfrac ... waterless fracking using gelled LPG in place of conventional fracturing fluids.

     

    http://bit.ly/tcSovO

     

    They got their start and proved their technology in Canada ... they seem to be a bit more open to experimentation there. And it seems if you head to Calgary, you can talk to a lot of players in a relatively small amount of the city.
    19 Jan 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Strong likelihood there will be no mention of Axion PbCs, NS999, or anything else pertaining to RR electrification, but for those interested in the off chance possiblity of Axion relevant news, NS quarterly earnings CC is scheduled for Tuesday, January 24 at 4:30 pm EST.
    18 Jan 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Guys

     

    I am going to say this once. Reading the old concentrators you battery geeks talk another language...lol...But i bought my shares at 49 cents and am throwing them in the sock drawer ( THANKS TRIPLE FOR THAT ) and hope you guys know what you are talking about..

     

    But the product seems to be second to none and it seems that it just needs time. I honestly thought i would find it hard to find something to invest in other than my physicals as i expect a correction soon.

     

    However reading what i can understand i am truely excited about this and am hoping for the best. But i am an investor with this one, no trading and hoping to buy it back at a later price lower. All it will take is some good orders and this is ripe to take off ..imo

     

    So back to the old concentrators but i feel like i am studying for my CPA exam all over again. Those FASB'S were killers in the 70's..

     

    MAP
    18 Jan 2012, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The volume that appeared as short in yesterday's FINRA market maker report was a tiny 28,000 shares out of 473,850, the lowest it's been since December 20th. It's not a trend yet, but it's a very low number.
    19 Jan 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking then that the bulk of the sellers thursday were retail lurkers or drive-by traders who got in very cheap over the last few weeks, lost patience with the fading pop, and then bailed out with what they could get. That's the best I can surmise.. Who else would sell here?
    19 Jan 2012, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I tend to agree. I'm certain that Quercus was in there for its 10% even though it doesn't show up as a MM short, but I don't see a lot of incentive for the holders to trade at these prices.
    19 Jan 2012, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    How could Quercus sales *not* show up as a MM short though? Is there some kind of lag perhaps? I'm still a bit fuzzy on how it works...
    19 Jan 2012, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Quercus had two blocks of shares. One was registered for resale and the second was only eligible for sale under Rule 144. Depending on how Axion's counsel handled the paperwork, it's possible that the registered shares were converted to electronic form prior to resale, which would keep those shares out of the short count. The important thing to remember is that the FINRA short numbers seem to be very reliable over time but there's no way to know for sure what the day to day reliability is. They're an indicator of what's going on behind the veil rather than a detailed report.
    19 Jan 2012, 02:01 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    Ah... layers and layers of complexity and key distinctions. My education continues, slowly... ;)
    19 Jan 2012, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The problem with supply and demand analysis is that I'm trying to derive a sensible and coherent picture from a canvas with a very limited set of data points. It's complicated by the fact that the data points that do exist, things like Section 13 filings and the like, are frequently out of date and not always consistent. The FINRA market maker reports fill in a big swath of canvas that didn't have any data points in the past. They add a lot of clarity, but don't clear out all the fog.
    19 Jan 2012, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    JLP under attack now: Who wants to kill the electric car

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Jan 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.

     

    Don't know about you, LT, but I thought it was another weak attack, as was Konrad's. They just give up on the numbers and go to the green. But the reality that JP also provides is that in GHG reduction, far greater reduction can be made by efficient IC engines than can be by electric cars.

     

    kt
    19 Jan 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    ditto KT...and I might add that SA is the worst about letting authors take another "fellow" author's work and dissect it to make the writer look bad.
    This is too easy as the attacker has no homework to do. JLP does all the work compiling the data and then someone tries to discredit it. The only truth is in a couple of lines such as "It is not in the interest of oil companies for GM's electric cars to make it"
    19 Jan 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (729) | Send Message
     
    I disagree that SA makes it too easy to "take another "fellow" author's work and dissect it to make the writer look bad". He references John's article properly and shows his points. A reader with any critical thought process who missed John's articles before may read this rebuttal to the original argument. When you read the two side by side its hard not to be swayed. Debate in any form should applauded as they at least are using 1 common source whereas the best example I can think of is in politics where both sides use non-sequitors to disparage the other. The only loser then is us.
    19 Jan 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't see the article as an attack. Besides, I'm the one who told Mr. Moore that the externalities he wanted to focus on were way out of my depth to estimate and I preferred hard black and white numbers from credible third party sources.

     

    Whenever I have commenters who strenuously disagree with my views, I tell them there's a "Submit an Article" link at the bottom of every SA page. I'd much rather see them arguing in their own space than in my back yard.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 1/18/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    CORRECTION: I forgot about the 15 minute lag in my trades data feed yesterday - no substantive change though. 3K shares added to the buy volume in three trades at $0.435. The buy, total and two ratios were reported as 128,390, 470,580, 1:2.54 and 1:2.67 respectively. These have been corrected in the following.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 131,390, 326,140, and 16,050 respectively,giving total volume for the day of 473,580. Buy:sell ended at 1:2.48 and buy:(sell+unknown) at 1:2.6.

     

    I think the deterioration in the buy:sell ratios that is apparent below is suggesting continuing downward price pressure is still in the cards, in line with my thinking of likely consolidation after the price spike up. This is bolstered by the generally reducing short sales percentage, as I believe this indicates shares backing sell orders are flowing into market-maker portfolios How much longer this will continue is anybody's guess. But *if* I've gleaned an understanding of the mechanics of the market-maker and John Petersen's contributions on their goals are accurate, we can expect price pressure to continue until the market-maker(s) can get near "market-neutral". This seems unlikely until large sellers (if they are on the field) take a break.

     

    Since we saw volume move up appreciably (48.8%) on a down day with a still bad buy:sell and a *very* low short sales volume (more on that below) and percentage, *and* we penetrated a minor potential support level ($0.45), I have to think that a test of the $0.40 level is certain, sans some stimulus.

     

    The $0.42/$0.43 range, touched and held yesterday, may offer support, but that's a "minor" support in it was tested only twice recently and was not at an inflection point - it was just a low within a sideways trading range. Given this fact and the items I mention above, I don't expect it to hold for long.

     

    The $0.40 level *may* have better chance of holding as it demonstrated intra-day resistance during the 11/16-12/2 period, signifying a "psychologically significant" price point even though traditional TA would assign no significance to this action. It also would be a small "overshoot" (quite common) of a "reversion to the mean". But I'm not assigning good odds to it while the conditions we see from above are still in effect.

     

    As much as I hate to say it, it's looking very likely that the "reversion to the mean", ($0.585 - $0.25)/2 + $0.25 = $0.4175, plus a larger-than-normal overshoot, maybe to ~$0.37 or so, is likely at this time.

     

    Anything around the $0.40 level puts price into the range where I can consider a buyback of my trading blocks, but I'm not going to rush it.

     

    As much as I wish Quercus well, I'll be in bottom-feeding mode and likely wait for an indication that we might be bottoming (but be aware that when I thought $0.30 was it, it wasn't - $0.25 was). Fortunately, with so much upside potential if I miss that by a few pennies, no serious harm will be done. This gives me the luxury of maybe waiting until a turn up occurs and jumping then. Even if it pulls back, there should be little damage in the grand scheme of things.

     

    The only risk with waiting for a turn up is the rocket-effect that might be seen if the turn is in response to some PR or news. So, as before, I will evaluate and set a target for a buy and be satisfied if I get it, regardless.

     

    I want to touch on the low short sales percentage, briefly touched on with BangWhiz yesterday. With the help of JP, we've apparently concluded that daily short sales are a generally reliable indicator of what's happening with Quercus and others of their ilk. However, we shouldn't (yet) take yesterday's low number to be a indication that they might be moving away from the market for a bit just because it was nowhere near 10% of total volume. ISTM that an occasional lower number would be normal if they are trying to "sell smarter". Whoever is handling the shares may be of the opinion that the downward pressure will be abating shortly and better prices can be had. If volume rises again, there's likely *some* higher price available intra-day even in an overall down move. Keep in mind that the *average* percentage for daily short sales was 36% from 10/3/11 through sometime in late December.

     

    A one-day abberration should not be considered significant.

     

    0110 Vol 0464394, Sht 0261409 56.29% LHC 0.4300 0.4600 0.46 b:s 2.99:1
    0111 Vol 1060818, Sht 0546788 51.54% LHC 0.4700 0.5800 0.58 b:s N/A
    0112 Vol 1432590, Sht 0649648 39.67% LHC 0.4900 0.5900 0.51 b:s 1.20:1
    0113 Vol 0557629, Sht 0288831 43.21% LHC 0.4900 0.5100 0.50 b:s 1.67:1
    0117 Vol 0318302, Sht 0070167 22.04% LHC 0.4800 0.5000 0.4801 b:s 1:3.66
    0118 Vol 0473580, Sht 0028000 05.91% LHC 0.4201 0.4900 0.4350 b:s 1:2.48

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    My take:
    When we are not hitting the buy target, indicating falling price, retailers are getting antsy and selling by dropping their ask below the bigger boys ask resulting in much lower short sales (Quercus and others don't sell as much on these days).

     

    When we are hitting the buy target, indicating a rising price, retailers are hardly selling at all leaving only the big boys to sell resulting in the higher percentage of short sales, but still a rising pps.

     

    The trend that I am beginning to see from the FINRA short sales data is that it is really up to the retailer to hold strong on his price resulting in a rising pps or to sell lower than the big boys resulting in a falling pps.

     

    It seems to be playing out this way day by day. I would guess that if we stay steady or go higher short sales percentage will rise, more FINRA shares. If we go lower short sale percentage will fall, less FINRA shares.

     

    I thought the retailers were the strong hands, but that may not be entirely true.

     

    Thanks for the data HTL, looking forward to seeing the trend play out.
    19 Jan 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    If Spec Sit really is all done, it would not be surprising for the Quercus strategy to change a little and the patterns we've been observing to change as well.

     

    But the big news is Spec Sit being gone ... if they are. Gamechanger, along with the increase in (and repeated so far in January) publicity ... gaining some traction and new buyers.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    If Special Sits is gone the last thing I'd do as the manager of Quercus is change my strategy. Feeding a hungry and rising market is a lot more fun than trying to force stock into a falling one. It's all about the money where Quercus is concerned and I'm sure they'll have no objection to making up some lost ground, or at least reducing their losses on the balance.
    19 Jan 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    More bees with honey.
    19 Jan 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    People are looking more for affirmation in the information they consume. It takes a while for the feel-good aspect of EV's to be faced with the complications of reality. When I hear of the plans for a smart grid controlling car charging, I think of people with range anxiety who really need to get to work and back tomorrow.

     

    Speaking of EVs, if all of the the GM EV1s were not crushed, there
    would be a nice platform for PbC.
    19 Jan 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    It's interesting to see the flimsy arguments that the opposing side develops and makes the argument against EVs that much more compelling.
    19 Jan 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    that article I posted earlier is now the #1 on SA.... It is not that good of an article so......

     

    This tells me how many JLP followers & Axionista's there are.

     

    We need to learn how to harness this power. I truly believe that this concentrator and axionista's has the ability to change investing/investors power. Scary isn't it?
    19 Jan 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (729) | Send Message
     
    Personally, I'd like us and Axion to be quiet a little longer. I get my bonus check on Valentine's day that I would like to put to work. I understand everyone else wants a higher price but for someone like me I'll gladly take what I perceive to be a disconnect between the stock price and business story longer. I have a long term horizon that way. ;)

     

    I've been out of dry powder for a while so I'm not one of the pirranahs that John mentions.
    19 Jan 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... I just ran back from "Who Wants to Kill the Electric Car?" ... I mean ran. WOW! The crazy flag is flying high for both sides. It makes the EVangelics that J.P. puts up with to be a reasonable lot. What is it about thinking a problem through to a logical solution so hard to do?
    19 Jan 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I really liked Mr. Carlini's comments; enough so that I sent him a PM inviting him to keep an eye on my future work and join the comment stream with his infrastructure expertise. Maybe we'll get another friend.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    John, we can all hope that one day you will post an old Carlini quote like Maya's early argument, and in the same context...

     

    You are always looking forward, I like that.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    I'm with you, MH. I was just told my last day of employment is 03/19 and I'd like to put my severance and bonus to work while I don't, LOL. I've been outsourced to India and I am very lucky that it is the right time for me to go. 03/19 can't get here soon enough.
    19 Jan 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    The article is his first. The article has 59 comments even after getting front page treatment by SA. He has made 14 comments on SA. He has 3 followers. Did anyone see anything in that article that would justify it getting front page treatment on SA? If not, than why is it on the front page?
    19 Jan 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    Simply the title. It touches several erogenous zones. Everyone knows that electric cars are cool and green and sexy. They just make too much sense. Any threat to the religion is going to bring the eyeballs, and the knives...

     

    And SA wants the eyeballs. 59 comments thus far is probably an above average rate.
    19 Jan 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    LOL, to bait John and us, of course.

     

    A little admin-trolling going on?
    19 Jan 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    They don't get many submissions of that type so being able to claim that they give the other side equal time is important.
    19 Jan 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    My first article is the only one of 10 so far that got onto SA's front page. Most of the other 10 were better. I think SA does try to encourage new authors and tries to give them a push when they can.
    19 Jan 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    Just got back from reading it too. I love comments like "I don't know what it will cost to upgrade the grid to allow charging stations everywhere, but they are going to do the upgrading anyway, so it doesn't matter". Not an exact quote, but when you are dealing with readers at that level of information, why bother. I did have to post the following comment about the 70% battery reduction by 2015:

     

    "The price of the vehicles will certainly come down, as Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu said at the Detroit Auto Show he expects the cost for electric car batteries to drop 70% by 2015, down from a whopping $12,000 in 2008, to $3500 by 2015 and $1500 by 2020."

     

    Sure it will. Let's take American's best Li-ion battery company A123. They've been selling batteries for years, but still can't make a profit at it selling them at the current $12,000 price tag. They are opening a new plant that they "hope" will bring down the cost enough so that they can actually make a profit selling them. So how are they miraculously going to cut that price by 70% by 2015? Just because Secretary Chu says something doesn't make it true. He thought giving half a billion dollars to a now bankrupt solar company was a good idea too. How'd that work out? He has also said that for there to be any real advancement in energy storage it is going to have to come from chemistries that aren't on the market yet and are still under development. When those "breakthroughs" happen, and actually make it to the market, then I will believe this nonsense about price reductions.
    19 Jan 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Chu is literally the last man on earth to trust when it comes to predicting market prices. Talk about a "kiss of death" endorsement...

     

    A123's managment must have been squirming like an acting crew at a hemorroid commercial cattle call!
    19 Jan 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Alsobirdman: sure sorry to hear about your job fleeing the country.

     

    We all hope that your investments will support you in a manner *better* than that to which you've become accustomed! :-))

     

    SA failure to flag let your post from yesterday slip until this A.M. when I did my customary "look at 'em all to see what's been missed".

     

    I wish you good fortune!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that a "cross trade" (apparently) went at $0.46 at 10:51 for 27,057K shares when bid/ask was $0.435/$0.449.

     

    This resulted in a move up in price, at 10:55, which is still the last price of $0.4799, but no follow-on volume.

     

    It's a "head fake" I think.

     

    This leads to say keep an eye out for around the 14:00 time. Yesterday, just before that is when the selling pressure that moved us down began.

     

    If it was part of the big sellers strategy ("selling smarter") to let price rise in the A.M. through early afternoon on low volume (which we had yesterday) and then start gentle selling, they may want to repeat "what worked before".

     

    Today is now looking very similar.

     

    Hmmm ... 11:13 moves us to $0.4845, for a moment, on 23K.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    I am surmising mid-40s will hold this time. The weaker retail holders got out during yesterdays drop. I am thinking those that didn't sell yesterday won't sell today and this is a support level.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Could be a head fake, but what if the sellers really are pulling back and holding tight for the higher number? Forces the buyer to chase a bit. Not much volume and the price just seems to be moving up.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    It wouldn't surprise me CoryM.

     

    The net result of consolidation is to find a price new level and we really can't know what sentiment is until it develops.

     

    One thing I forgot to consider in my post this morning was potential support from market-maker(s) if their portfolio is long. They will not lose money, that's for sure. If yesterday's short-sale percentage is indicative, they were long yesterday and may have finished the day longer than they want to be.

     

    Add in what you suggest and we might find that $0.42/$0.43 will hold.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    I came across this article this morning and thought it was relevant though older from nov. 2010. It mentions an issue I believe some were discussing here about fitting the batteries into a certain space to make OTR hybrid-locomotives more feasible. Thelen, NS's VP of Operations, says their R&D is working on a six axle locomotive that could hold battery and battery strings up to 3000hp. It also talks about making a BMS system, which they subsequently hired Axion to do and is now completed. Also notice at the end the goal is to do 35 locomotive rebuilds per year, I believe someone was asking about that as well. All good stuff.

     

    I will paste the link to the article here but I also pasted an excerpt of the most pertinent information to Axion here. Some of this might be old news so I would welcome Drich and others to fill in what has changed and what is the same and maybe give more color to it all.

     

    http://bit.ly/wzpPQb

     

    From the article:

     

    "In the meantime, the mechanical department is advancing a few other projects. Department managers are working with Axion Power International Inc. to develop a battery management system designed to power locomotives and recharge via regenerative braking. Featuring Axion Power's PbC batteries, the system would enable certain locomotives to operate without diesel generator sets, cutting the motive power's fuel usage and air emissions down to zero.

     

    Batteries Included

     

    A battery-powered unit would be part of a three-locomotive consist with two conventional units to help push a train uphill. Batteries would recharge while a train applies dynamic brakes heading downhill via a system developed by Brookville Equipment Corp.

     

    A prototype currently undergoing tests — the 1,500-horsepower "NS 999" switcher — features 1,080 lead-acid, 12-volt batteries. NS chose lead-acid batteries instead of nickel-metal hydride or lithium-ion models, which continue to be developed, says Thelen.

     

    However, finding an energy management system that can ensure equal battery performance when charging and discharging is proving difficult because current systems are limited and better ones need to be developed, he says.

     

    "We need to find the right battery management system," says Thelen, adding that it's equally challenging to configure enough batteries in the tight confines of an engine frame.

     

    NS' R&D department managers also are trying to develop a six-axle road locomotive powered by batteries. They're working with Penn State University researchers to test batteries and battery strings with a maximum potential of 3,000 horsepower, says Thelen.

     

    "We have a large R&D department, and it's a strategic benefit to do things independently as well as keep up with TTCI and other researchers, so we don't double up," he says.

     

    The R&D partnership approach led to the development of another alternative locomotive: a modified GenSet produced by Progress Rail Services Corp. that features two Caterpillar Inc. engines working in tandem to generate power. In 2008, officials from NS and Progress Rail — which is owned by Caterpillar — began to jointly develop the high-horsepower "PR43C."

     

    The repower locomotive features a Caterpillar C-175, 3,600-horsepower engine and a secondary Caterpillar C-18, 700-horsepower engine. The PR43C uses the larger engine when operating and smaller engine when idling to maximize fuel savings, reduce emissions and lower lifecycle costs.

     

    "The advantage is that we're working with Caterpillar, which has expertise in engine research and development," says Moorman, adding that Caterpillar also recently added locomotive expertise to its repertoire after acquiring Electro-Motive Diesel Inc.

     

    NS currently is using three PR43Cs — two owned by the railroad and one Caterpillar demonstration unit — and has four more on order with Progress Rail, says Thelen. The four new units will feature upgraded traction systems, control systems and modernized cabs.

     

    Although NS figures to consume a lot less diesel because of the alternative locomotives, as well as a number of other fuel-management measures, the Class I's annual usage still totals hundreds of millions of gallons. So, senior execs are analyzing the potential of synthetic — and perhaps lower-cost — fuels. The railroad has tested a coal-to-liquid fuel produced in South Africa that burns cleaner than diesel, says Thelen.

     

    However, to be a practical diesel alternative, the coal-to-liquid fuel would need to be produced domestically; NS is seeking a U.S. company to produce it, says Thelen.

     

    "We're trying to encourage companies to get into that business," he says.

     

    Fuel costs — and total operating expenses — also are factors in senior execs' decision to modernize locomotives produced prior to 1972. Workers at the Juanita Shops in Altoona, Pa., continue to rebuild four-axle GP38s into helper units renamed SD50Es. The units are stripped down to their frames and rebuilt. The SD50Es include new cabs featuring a low-nose, full-glass view instead of the former high-nose configuration, says Manion.

     

    "We have a fleet with a lot of age in it. The rebuilds can add 20 years to the life of a locomotive," he says, adding that work can be done at less than half the cost of a new locomotive.

     

    The goal is to rebuild 35 locomotives per year; so far, shop workers have rebuilt 175 units."
    19 Jan 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I think the 35 unit per year reference relates to their more efficient big diesel-small diesel configuration. Still it provides a clue about the kind of pace NS likes to set with early stage retrofit programs. By the time you roll the opportunity through all the nation's railroads, it's not a shabby demand profile.

     

    When I'm trying to assess the near term potential, I look back at the history of R.J. Corman's Green Goat which booked orders for 175 units before the battery problems became obvious to end users.

     

    http://bit.ly/sHlXQ2
    19 Jan 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Great post JAK!

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    Brookville Facebook: page: http://on.fb.me/zLriKM

     

    "On the right track
    New locomotive in S.J. reduces pollution, costs"
    http://bit.ly/zbKg94

     

    Kinda like ICE builders keeps raising the bar for the EV

     

    LInkedIn: http://linkd.in/zC8ZIT

     

    http://bit.ly/yntGJ7

     

    http://bit.ly/zfL3IZ

     

    another Pennsylvania company!
    19 Jan 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    "When I'm trying to assess the near term potential, I look back at the history of R.J. Corman's Green Goat which booked orders for 175 units before the battery problems became obvious to end users."

     

    So... you can't end the story there John. Are they out of business or are they looking for the right battery? I will do a little exploring myself but thought you could give us the short answer now...
    19 Jan 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    It looks like Brookville's strategy is similar to well drilling in that the engines come online as the need arises. Do you suppose Rosewater plans on paying them a visit?
    19 Jan 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • brishwain
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    John - the article states:

     

    "A prototype currently undergoing tests — the 1,500-horsepower "NS 999" switcher — features 1,080 lead-acid, 12-volt batteries. NS chose lead-acid batteries instead of nickel-metal hydride or lithium-ion models, which continue to be developed, says Thelen.

     

    However, finding an energy management system that can ensure equal battery performance when charging and discharging is proving difficult because current systems are limited and better ones need to be developed, he says.

     

    "We need to find the right battery management system," says Thelen, adding that it's equally challenging to configure enough batteries in the tight confines of an engine frame. "

     

    What is your take on NS' concern that they apparently have not found the right BMS??
    19 Jan 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Interesting links, wtb!
    19 Jan 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    Brishwain - It appears that article was written in November 2010. If my recollection serves me well, that was before they agreed to have Axion build a BMS?
    19 Jan 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    That is correct. The BMS has already been built by Axion, as stated in NS's environmental impact study for 2011.
    19 Jan 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    I also think that NS has patented some parts of the BMS in 2011. I posted concerns on this in the last couple of months in 2011.

     

    my take is....the BMS is in place and fully functional.
    19 Jan 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >jakurtz ... Thanks for posting the article. It is information that has been out there a while but it is still interesting to read and remind. I did learn something ... so it is all good.

     

    I was unaware that the GP38 was being refit to SD50E for helper service. It would be interesting to know if this was going to be a new technology but rebuilding a 4 axle to a 6 axle unit is unusual. NS999 is the original truck configuration. I was aware of the PR43C, built on SD50 frames, but was surprised that Norfolk liked them so well they bought enough to make them an in-service locomotive. I guess I shouldn't be because it is existing technology re-purposed to meet a current need.

     

    John, I believe that the 35 per year rebuild refers just to the pre-1972 units brought out of storage and not necessarily rebuilt to new technology. I know that many CJ Corman & NRE units have been refit with genset kits at Altoona for many roads. This is probably the bulk of those 175 units (roughly the number of "Green Goats" though there are still quite a few still original, NS has 2).

     

    The info on the NS999 is well known to most here but there seems to be a little quandary about the hold up. Is it the BMS or batteries? Probably not. The best suspect would be the train management system. The batteries & BMS probably work perfectly and is, in fact, a simple piece of the system. The management system would be the program and hardware to control input/output all power systems.

     

    It is not rocket science to build the management system but a data collection problem and hardware sizing problem to maximize efficiency. The "Ladder Logic" diagram that would drive a programming department crazy and the equipment sizing would be no walk in the park. The train management needs to deal with all loaded/unloaded train weights pushing or pulling the loco, varying numbers of cars, battery charge levels, motor amp draws & whether that power comes from battery, brake or engine, balance current power requirements for train speed, grade & wind loading to what is coming up ahead and more. All of this can be dealt with by just oversizing all components (more batteries, larger dynamic brakes, same size engine, ... ) or modeling with computers but can't really be evaluated until it is put in the field and run through various field trial data collection. My personal opinion is that the complexity of adding the battery pack and knock-on tweaks to existing systems is what is holding up an order for Axion and slowing the development of the road slug.
    19 Jan 2012, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Corman stopped building the green goat and many that had been sold were returned by the purchasers. After completing a Chapter 11, Corman is now working with standard diesel gensets.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Axion announced a contract to build a BMS for Norfolk Southern on June 9, 2010. The project was not complete until early 2011. So it was a work in progress when the article was published.

     

    It's my understanding that they started with the standard Axion BMS as the core technology and made some changes and additions to suit the customer's needs. NS has apparently filed a patent application for the parts of the BMS that constitute a work for hire, but that application won't impact Axion's rights to its core BMS technology.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Tim Enright ... The "Green Goat" was the product of Railpower Technologies, a Canadian company. R.J. Corman bought Railpower in bankruptcy in 2009 and only builds diesel genset locos, only 2 new and 35(?) from retrofit Green Goat conversions mostly done at NS, Altoona.

     

    http://bit.ly/wibKd0
    20 Jan 2012, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for clarifying and correcting my poor memory on the chronology.
    20 Jan 2012, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    John, why do companies keep trying to use conventional LA batteries in this and similar traction drive apps when it has been known for years that they will not stand up under rapid, or deep, State of Charge cycling?
    Do the battery makers swear they will work and take the money?
    There MUST be a distributed experience archive with this information in it for a battery chemistry that is over 100 years old. Why the surprise at the failures? Both the Green Goat and the original 999 tried and failed within a few years of each other. I don't understand.
    20 Jan 2012, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    I think it's because AGMs were a relatively recent development and the batteries tried were state of the art latest and greatest. But alas, sore indeed was the trial, and sulfation felled them too in the end...
    20 Jan 2012, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Until the launch of the Prius nobody thought about doing really big things with batteries. We had experience with golf carts, fork lifts and wheelchairs, but that was pretty much the upper limit. So while we had a century of experience with small systems, there was no relevant experience with big systems.

     

    The Green Goat used a 130 hp generator to charge a bank of 320 lead-acid batteries (± 320 kWh ?) that were expected to deliver 2,000 hp (±1.5 MW of power). It put tremendous discharge strain on the batteries but recharged them slowly. It didn't work well in the hands of users that were less gentle than the system developers.

     

    The NS 999 used a bank of 1080 AGM batteries (±1,080 kWh) to deliver 1,500 hp (±1.125 MW of power). It was far kinder to the batteries on the discharge cycle, but required much more from the batteries on the charging cycle. As I understand it, the NS 999's failure was due primarily to the recuperative braking loads.

     

    A lot of our understanding of how lead-acid batteries behave in large systems and how dynamic charge acceptance changes over time and use is very new science. Now that newer and larger needs are obvious, the science is developing rapidly. So far all signs point to the PbC as an order of magnitude better for large-scale cycling intensive applications, but we're still learning.
    20 Jan 2012, 01:56 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    What do you think of the PR43C's 700hp engine being replaced by 700hp of batteries for the idling...I guess the challenge is finding a way to charge the 700hp of batteries while the 3600hp engine is working?

     

    (There is the extremely remote possibility this is dumb question.)
    20 Jan 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >jakurtz ... That is the Green Goat idea for over-the-road service combined with a battery slug for helper. Use the 700 h.p for local switching to customer sites. The NS999 for yard work. Urban rail would be all electric from overhead or whatever and could be freight & passenger if traffic warranted. That is my vision of rail electrification and is subject to being completely wrong.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    DRich, interesting link... I could spend enormous amounts of time on a site like that. Glad to have your knowledge and interest in this area...
    20 Jan 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John, that does make sense. I was just surprised that the systems attempted didn't seem to have much real testing behind the ideas. I guess empiricism isn't dead after all in this "time of digital simulation".
    Again, if you don't have a good model of the device, you can't expect the simulation to tell you anything useful.
    20 Jan 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    One of the best things about the earlier failure of the NS 999 is that it gave them a ton of data on the demands the locomotive put on the batteries. So while they didn't have a great model in August 2009 before the NS 999 went to work, they do have a pretty good model based on their prior experience and they've spent two years testing and triple checking results when the PbC is subjected to thoroughly modeled operational stresses. It's an entirely different world where learning what didn't work helps you make better decisions about what to try next.
    20 Jan 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    With electric rail, the battery energy buffer for regenerative braking can be at track side. Not having to carry the heavy batteries on a light rail car makes good sense. There are inescapable added losses from the resistance of the wires and sliding contacts.
    If the electrical feed is AC to the rail car, the overall system becomes more expensive because of the more added DC-AC inverters needed. Nothing is free.
    20 Jan 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    Good data provides good decision support information. I wish that message would get tattooed on every politicians ....
    20 Jan 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    FPA, considering where most politicians' heads are, it would have to be *inside* for them to see it!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    what is happening .50?
    19 Jan 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm. Wondering if http://tinyurl.com/6o7... could have played a part.
    19 Jan 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Intended to include an excerpt from http://tinyurl.com/6o7...
    <
    SAN DIEGO, Jan. 19, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (MXWL) (Nasdaq: MXWL) announced today that Bombardier Transportation, a leading producer of rail vehicles and rail transportation equipment, systems and services, has selected Maxwell ultracapacitors as the energy storage element of the BOMBARDIER* EnerGstor*® braking energy recuperation system.

     

    Each stationary "wayside" EnerGstor unit incorporates an ultracapacitor array that is capable of storing up to two kilowatt hours of electrical energy generated by a rail vehicle's braking energy recuperation system. Recuperative braking is accomplished by running the vehicle's electric motor backwards to stop the vehicle with the motor's resistance. An electric motor running backwards also acts as an electric energy generator or dynamo that converts kinetic energy into electrical energy that can be stored for future use. The EnerGstor system offers multiple benefits to rail system operators, including:

     

    . . .
    19 Jan 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    2 kWh of energy will move a Nissan Leaf ±8 miles. How far will it move a train? Any engineering types want to chime in on that one?
    19 Jan 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/zs6uG0

     

    P = F * v

     

    2kWh will likely move a train nowhere.
    19 Jan 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    In looking at it, they go up to 5kWh hours. I belive they are just trying to capture some of energy from braking. The vehicles are aparently electric light transiet trains operating on a power gird like subway cars. So this is not designed to power a stand-alone train, just to reduce energy usage, regulate power, and reduce peak power draws from the grid.
    19 Jan 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    FPA: 2kWh could only be used to accelerate a moving train, no? i am trying to wrap my head around it. i understand they are capturing kinetic energy from a spinning motor while braking. is this kinetic energy then stored by a battery? if this is the case it seems like less energy is being lost by applying the brakes but that this recapture could never exceed the applied to brake.

     

    please feel free to clear things up a bit for me, and thanks in advance.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    tragic: I noted that the "energy recovery systems" are on the ground at track side, not on the rail car. That implies that they can add as many as needed for effective recycling of braking energy at stop and start stretches of track (mostly near terminals?). To the overall system is would just appear as a lower generator impedance to the motor and regenerative brake. The more systems added, the more of the now wasted energy could be recovered.

     

    The dynamics might be a bit confusing, given the varying state of charge of the storage systems vs local traffic. Stop and start times either adding, subtracting or averaging out the track voltage "lumps". More storage will always increase efficiency, but the slope of the increase will flatten as the storage grows.

     

    I would think that a few, larger storage systems placed near the terminals would be the most cost effective scheme. The closer the storage is to the place where most of the energy is being generated (braking) and consumed (accelerating), the better the efficiency because of the lower resistance from rail car to storage battery.

     

    The lower the number of separate systems, the less duplicated housing structure and control electronics. Larger inverters are cheaper per Watt then smaller ones. And so forth.
    20 Jan 2012, 01:53 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    and I believe the energy is stored in a capacitor, not a battery.
    20 Jan 2012, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    that makes much more sense to me (they aren't on the car). thank you both siliconhillbilly and FocalPointAnalytics
    20 Jan 2012, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    FPA: I was lumping the highly capacitive PbC battery in with the carbon-carbon supercapacitor. Both work well in this application, I believe.
    20 Jan 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/x1e235

     

    "Swiss based engineering giant ABB is teaming up with Nissan, 4R Energy and Sumitomo to see if all the used batteries might be made suitable for grid storage solutions for power grids. If successful it will provide a second hand sales value for EV batteries, lowering the lifetime cost of electric motoring, enhancing the attraction the EV experience. ABB already has a deal with GM to test the possibilities of used Chevy Volt batteries."
    19 Jan 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I have to giggle every time I read about somebody launching a second life test. Common wisdom holds that (a) EV batteries will last far longer than their useful life in cars so they can be repurposed to other uses like grid stabilization AND (b) over the next decade the cost of EV batteries will plummet while the performance skyrockets.

     

    A decade from now today's shiny new EV battery will be used 10-year old technology with an uncertain use history and a more uncertain life expectancy.

     

    Even my cynical mind is willing to accept the idea that a battery that sells for $20,000 today will probably sell for $10,000 a decade from now.

     

    So the $64,000 question is if a utility can buy new for $10,000 or it can buy used based on antiquated technology, how much do you think they'll pay for the used that originally cost its owner $20,000.

     

    I figure all the talk of second life use is just a way to fade the heat on the lack of a cost effective recycling technology and the complete absence of recycling infrastructure. Then again, I'm just a cynical old Luddite.
    19 Jan 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Would that be Green Smoke and Mirrors?
    I agree the whole exercise is just greenwashing.
    20 Jan 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I like your reference to "green smoke and mirrors" and will no doubt steal it without attribution. OK, maybe I'll give you credit for the phrase, but not every time I use it.
    20 Jan 2012, 02:01 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    Up 16%... can't find anything in the news ...
    19 Jan 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    FPA, I'm convinced that we're seeing a supply and demand inflection point rather than a business fundamentals inflection point. The example I use is about fifteen years old, but this Instablog does a pretty good job of explaining the dynamic.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Jan 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    I almost have to keep reminding myself how small the dollar amts are here, and hence the rapid big swings in pps. 400k share days represent only $100k-$200k changing hands. That is rounding error for many stk mkt participants. And is one of the primary reasons I'm long the stk. Going from off to on-radar is the move I love to capture.
    19 Jan 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... Used Li-on batteries in grid storage would be a market product that is 8-10 years out, if I've understood the life expectancy of EV packs correctly. How much longer would it take to be a real player in the segment? I think Axion would compete more with molten salt or ZBB in the mean time.
    19 Jan 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Through the first 50 trades, 11:40:37, the buy, sell and ratio are 173,957, 42,684 and 4.075:1 respectively. Trade was $0.495. Volume 226,575.

     

    At 12:15:14, 217,335, 48,306 and 4.5:1 on 63 trades. Lat trade then was $0.49. Volume 278,575.

     

    Maybe Mercy bought some more and we're seeing the "Mercy Madness Effect"! :-))

     

    If so, generic "more women" won't cut it - it's got to be the genuine article - a real Mercy!

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Ms. Mercy, I have never heard of "H. T. Love", don't know him, and any physical resemblance is just because of a shared genetic tendency to being folically challenged...
    19 Jan 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Looks like you have to pay the Ask today to board the train and I can see us testing .54 yet.
    19 Jan 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1822) | Send Message
     
    LOL -- HTL. Thanks for arranging to make me feel better today about my 2nd bloc purchase price. Now please keep it going until 4 pm -- OK?

     

    If you saw my comment above -- I really do think we may be underestimating the hurdles of share access for anyone trying to build a core position starting in 2012 i.e trying to catch up with the 5-year lead time so many of you Axionistas already enjoy. Every time I want to add a "brick" to my AXPW foundation -- I have to scour the world to get the size brick I want and Fidelity goes into all sorts of contortions. I suppose if you want just a few shares for trading it is not an issue.

     

    Frankly I can't wait for the new share issuance to take place!
    19 Jan 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Buying slowed way down...do you think the buyers are expecting Quercus shares to hit the market this afternoon and are waiting for those? What happens if they already sold their shares for the day or decide not to sell today? :)

     

    Nevermind, I wonder if that was just them with the 111,000 at .50.
    19 Jan 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It's highly unlikely that Quercus would sell that many shares in a 430,000 share day or in a single block. They've been pretty religious about sticking to 10% of daily volume so a jump to 20% would be way out of character.
    19 Jan 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John, since they seemed to be a little light yesterday, you think whomever's handling it for them might have fudged a wee bit to make up the difference?

     

    I realize it would be a speculative answer, but as well as you know the folks, ...

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    We won't know whether they were light yesterday or not and won't know till they file their next Form 4. The FINRA short data for yesterday strikes me as odd, but I don't know that it proves anything. Life sure would be easier if we had real time access to complete information.
    19 Jan 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2271) | Send Message
     
    I have found that if I use a limit order a few cents above the "ask" I can get all I want and normally filled at the ask. Then again I'm only buying 10,000 to 15,000 shares. Now getting filled on the bid; that's another story.
    19 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Mercy: I deal exclusively with Fidelity and have noticed no problems trading in AXPW.OB . Maybe it's because I rarely deal in more than 10k shares in a block. Or only expect to trade during US market hours. Still, strange.
    19 Jan 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    I'm to cheap for Fidelity. I trade at Optionshouse for $2.95 because I opened an account back in the $2.95 days ($3.95 a trade for "newer" customers) plus .005 cents a share - probably up to a max on the add-on but not sure of that. Never had a problem on speed, or availability using limit orders for AXPW. I usually only buy 2-5K share blocks since I'm a small potatoes guy, but they are all the potatoes I've got.
    19 Jan 2012, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1822) | Send Message
     
    I hear you bangwhiz. The primary reason I use Fidelity is because they are the only game in town if you want online (as opposed to phone call) trading access directly on 13 foreign exchanges. Schwab claims they will get some of that capability this year, but thus far Fidelity has had a 3-year lead time over others on this capability. I do a lot of trading in Norway, Australia, and Canada.
    19 Jan 2012, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    Lately, my Fidelity orders are routed to "AUTO"

     

    AUTO M Automated Trading Desk Financial Services, LLC TRADE DESK TOLL FREE 866.283.2831
    AUTO M Automated Trading Desk Financial Services, LLC TRADE DESK 843-789-2180

     

    I don't think I see AUTO up there on Level II often.

     

    Today I see PERT FANC NITE ASCN PUMA near the top on the bids, and
    AUTO, NITE, ASCM and BTIG CSTI FANC on the offers.

     

    A fair number of different market makers come and go.

     

    Was seeing a lot of
    UBSS M UBS Securities LLC OTCBB/PINKSHEETS 203-719-8710

     

    in late December, but not today.

     

    There's
    20 Jan 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wild guess of the day:

     

    Just want to put SEPTA (Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority) back on everyone's radar. Viridity stated at the November 28 PowerCube ceremony, that they were working with SEPTA to capture regenerative braking.

     

    [extract from below article] "If the project proves economic – Viridity estimates one battery array will generate $500,000 a year in value – SEPTA envisions installing the technology at all 33 electric substations that serve its subway and trolley lines."

     

    Admittedly, the below link is an old Philadelphia Inquirer article, dated September 1, 2010. The point is that Axion could be in the mix for these substations. And given how old the article is, along with the recent Viridity/PJM/PowerCube unveiling, the timing of going ahead with this project may be just about right.

     

    I believe Saft is already involved, if memory serves me well. But if what Axion makes does the job as well or better, and is cheaper--because I believe Saft soley makes lithium batteries--then we just might see SEPTA as a next logical step for Viridity/PJM and Axion Power moving forward with the PowerCube.

     

    http://bit.ly/AaMJxN

     

    Helloooo SEPTA...Buy American!
    19 Jan 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    Funny you should mention that:
    http://bit.ly/znw4KX

     

    (From Today's Google Alerts on Viridity Energy)
    19 Jan 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » How about that! Time for some "hmmmm-ing."

     

    Thanks, wtblanchard.
    19 Jan 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (729) | Send Message
     
    I remember posting the original powerpoint from Viridity about this. They only installed the first cabinet this summer, so my guess is that future ones could have others but yes the batteries chosen were Lithium (from some Canadian company).
    19 Jan 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » mrholty: Did some burrowing around and came up with that Saft and Enviteck are involved with Viridity and SEPTA (this article was released about the same time as was the Philly Inquirer article I posted above):

     

    http://bit.ly/ytsin8
    19 Jan 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    Envitech recently merged into ABB:

     

    http://bit.ly/AbeZve
    19 Jan 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    Couple interesting pages on the Envitech site:
    Wayside Energy Storage: http://bit.ly/AmB7ih

     

    Automatic Assured Receptivity Unit (AARU): http://bit.ly/AlYs7b

     

    BASS Battery Storage System:
    http://bit.ly/zUK1me

     

    http://www.envitech.com has lots of other goodies ... and they are/were small potatoes compared to ABB.

     

    So John, got any "hometown" ABB stories for us?
    19 Jan 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    ABB's a fine company and local rumor has it that a former CEO of ABB was raised in our house before it was subdivided into four flats, but I've not been able to run down the details.
    19 Jan 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    After ninety trades at 14:38, things are normalizing. Buy, sell, unknown, volume and ratio are 320,105, 240,656, 9,934, 570,695 and 1.33:1.

     

    Today seems to be "selling smarter". But the change to greater selling did seem to start gaining some momentum (relatively) around 13:20.

     

    Too few trades to determine anything other than maybe it's stabilized around this ratio.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "E-vehicle batteries killing mass growth despite research." Article also contains a nice list of new battery ideas coming. The Univ. of Georgia using carbon caught my eye:

     

    http://bit.ly/ygNaYj
    19 Jan 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/zTuQyQ

     

    $0.4750 5,000 OBB 15:21:53
    $0.4900 10,370 OBB 14:38:16
    $0.5000 1,000 OBB 14:35:05
    $0.4901 10,000 OBB 14:28:36
    $0.4950 5,000 OBB 14:28:32
    $0.4950 5,000 OBB 14:28:30
    $0.5000 111,000 OBB 14:28:21
    $0.5010 3,150 OBB 14:01:26
    19 Jan 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I learn something new every day. Many thanks to WTB and Wiki.
    19 Jan 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    With the double count that 111k could have been Q selling 55,500, which would be ~10%. yes, no maybe?

     

    The rest is retailers dropping the price down because they get weak after seeing a large block go off...amateurs. :-)
    19 Jan 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Well, it *was* classified as a "sell".

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    You don't want to adjust individual trade figures. The 111,000 was a block that traded. The other side for the double count would be a group of trades that total 111,000 shares.
    20 Jan 2012, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    PJM NEWS RELEASE: PJM’S Striving for Perfect Dispatch Nets Nearly $200 Million in Savings

     

    http://bit.ly/w8deL7

     

    PR drip...drip...drip...the 3rd party PR group should be coordinating these...
    No AXPW mention...but...PJM...
    19 Jan 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    magounsq .... Don't know whether valid concern or not, but my internet security software flagged that tiny URL as a problematic security site.
    19 Jan 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    PDF from PJM: http://www.pjm.com~/media/about-pjm/news...

     

    or via PRNewswire, which I think is pretty safe:
    http://prn.to/Az9p0M
    19 Jan 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    thanks, wtb.
    19 Jan 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 0119, short 215,158, total volume 575,695, short 37.4%.

     

    So, I guess yesterday's 5.91% short (28K) meant the market-makers were very long and they managed to unload a lot yesterday, on total volume of 473,580, and today they got a bunch of new sell orders for which they don't yet have shares in their control.

     

    Recall that we had a weakening of the buy:sell starting near the 14:00 time-frame yesterday and ended down at $0.44 (with a low of $0.42) after having seen a high of $0.49.

     

    Today we had a $0.42 low again, a high of $0.51 and a close at $0.48.

     

    Buy:sell ends at 1.3:1.

     

    Given this combination, "smart selling" (likely the market-maker supporting price) moved a lot of shares at a decent price.

     

    It'll be interesting to see how it plays out the next few days. As the shares backing today's sell orders arrive, I guess we could see a repeat of yesterday. I wish I knew what price the market-maker had in hand - we might be able to guess what range we'd see over the next few days.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Eyeballing the snapshots, about 130K shares sold below $0.47. All the rest were at or above, ~435K. It *looks* like way more than the majority of those sold at $0.49 and higher.

     

    Thinking that the market maker paid much less than $0.47, on average, he can easily let price drop a few pennies (because he made profit on the short sale and with the fees for providing liquidity), as the shares backing these short sales come in, and not lose money.

     

    Let's see how it plays out over three days or so.

     

    BTW, I think a good exercise would be to match some Form-4 filings against daily price and volume action for a few days following the dates of sale on the Form-4.. Might be quite revealing now that we also have a good short-sale history..

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    My guess is we will push into the .50 -.52 area and see another increase of short sales around 35-45%. I think retailers are done consolidating in the mid .40's range which is what we saw yesterday with the lack of shorts/lack of private placement sales. I think we close at .51 friday...only time will tell.
    19 Jan 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I'm glad that you and others are providing your insights, as you are much more savvy than me. Thanks for the education.
    19 Jan 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    Someone explain to me what good the Maxwell ultra capacitor has to do with a train if it will not move it? Please explain how this technology is beneficial in layman's terms... I could see it if they were charging a PbC battery.
    19 Jan 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    :-) LT, I had a pretty similar reaction initially, but then it occurred that the power recovered from braking could be used to reduce drawdown from the grid when the train starts up or used to displace grid power otherwise consumed by lighting, etc. at the train stops.
    19 Jan 2012, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it is old age, maybe I am just stupid, but in three simple "Run Spot run!" sentences what do the short sale numbers tell you? My brain seizes up and crashes.

     

    I also suppose the market maker is not going to sell for a loss correct? We also should get a new Form 4 for Quercus by Monday.
    19 Jan 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (154) | Send Message
     
    Here's my humble attempt:

     

    Private investors bought lots of shares a while ago.
    When they sell, their sales are flagged as short sales.
    This lets us have a peek at supply:demand dynamics before the sales are officially disclosed.
    19 Jan 2012, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter> Pretty good explanation. Perhaps HTL or JP could do the same "run spot run" sentences for me also. Questions later. I appreciate your reply.
    19 Jan 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Private placement shares are always restricted stock in the hands of the original purchaser, even if they're eligible for resale.

     

    When private placement shares are sold, additional back office procedures must be followed before the shares are treated as "delivered."

     

    Shares that are sold by a market maker today but can't be delivered until the back office compliance is completed are reported as short sales.

     

    I think!
    20 Jan 2012, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Everything JP said and more generally, ...

     

    Whenever shares are sold by the market-maker, usually in response to a sell order received, and the shares for the orders are not controlled by the market-maker, the sale must be flagged as a short sale.

     

    So if I, at broker A, say "Sell", my broker (may) tell market-maker B "Sell". But my shares are at A, not B. So B makes the sale, flagging them as "short sales".

     

    Of course, "real short sales" could happen, but as JP has pointed out, AXPW is an unlikely candidate.

     

    Anyway, applying this wee bit of insight *may* give a clue as to "what happens" next. At least that's what I'm working towards, when combined with other stuff. But it takes a long time to see if there's any value.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    When I see these kind of transactions so closely together time wise it looks like a big block sale to me.

     

    $0.5000 15,000 OBB 13:22:20
    $0.5050 10,000 OBB 13:21:53
    $0.5100 31,400 OBB 13:21:32
    $0.5100 10,000 OBB 13:21:30
    $0.5000 300 OBB 13:21:28
    $0.5000 1,000 OBB 13:21:28

     

    and this group:
    $0.4901 10,000 OBB 14:28:36
    $0.4950 5,000 OBB 14:28:32
    $0.4950 5,000 OBB 14:28:30
    $0.5000 111,000 OBB 14:28:21

     

    On the other hand, someone picking up 111,000 shares at .50 today coming off a low of .425 or so means someone is bullish to me. I am completely dumb with this impression?
    19 Jan 2012, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » bang: I've seen a couple of my brokerage buys sneak through that way. The order total completed in smaller blocks.
    19 Jan 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    BW: Big blocks can cause what you see. The market maker may have to "aggregate" several smaller trades (e.g. buy) to satisfy a big order (e.g. sell).

     

    What you see could be what you surmise or may be just individual orders from lots of folks getting satisfied near the same time.

     

    The ones at ~13:xx time might be folks returning from lunch and getting back in the market, e.g. Or their orders could have been in for a long while and now a matching order appears that allows them to execute.

     

    We can never be sure. My larger orders often take hours to fill. And often many smaller trades over that time. I recall one that took all day and completed just before EOD.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    bang, this is totally inference on my part from one of JP's messages addressing FINRA "short sales" so could prove to be a case of the blind attempting to lead the blind.

     

    As I understood John, the FINRA short sales data report sales through brokers of certificated shares held by the sellers which must be delivered before conversion to book account record of shares held in a "street name." That is, the "short sales" represent shares the broker is "short" until certificates registered in the seller's name are delivered and re-issued.

     

    Now, hopefully, if I can write that and it is accurate there is a chance I understand it. Corrections not only welcome but invited.
    19 Jan 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Guys

     

    I might also be wrong but i thought a short sale was buying the stock at a future time but at a much lower price and paying a small premium, However if the price continues to rise i get caught in a short squeeze!!!

     

    Now i have to hope the price drops or go long and try to average out my purchase. We witnessed this in the silver market as so many orders were written to actually lower the price of silver.

     

    It was done By the four largest banks and nothing was or is being done about it. Hence since the odrer is at a lower amount the price of silver starts to drop. We were once trading in the 40 plus dollars per ounce and now were in the 30 dollar range.

     

    All manipulated by someone shorting the metal. Now if someone can clean this up for all to undertand please do so..HTL OR TRIPLE??

     

    MAP
    19 Jan 2012, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    I think the short sales being referred to are not "traditional" short sales as you described MAP. Rather they are sales when the MM who completed the sale does not yet have the shares in hand from the seller. He is "short" the shares sold because he does not have possession of the shares yet.

     

    As explained by D-Inv "That is, the "short sales" represent shares the broker is "short" until certificates registered in the seller's name are delivered and re-issued."

     

    Where are HTL and JP when you need them? HTL is probably crawling around on his floor fixing his APC unit and JP is asleep at like 2:50AM in Switzerlkand
    19 Jan 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    BANG

     

    I just lost my lights, i think HTL just pulled on the wrong plug..lol.

     

    I betcha you are right , i hear you like a wager once in a while...
    19 Jan 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    MAP> No bets on this topic buddy - dumber than a rock on this subject!
    19 Jan 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... you might have an EV nearby.
    19 Jan 2012, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    DRich...my batteries are dead...so i can't see....low shelf life...
    19 Jan 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    BANG>Imagine me trying to read and learn all this technical stuff you guys know....
    19 Jan 2012, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    MAP: BW has it right. One thing to keep in mind is that on "normal" stocks (e.g. higher-priced ones, especially those listed on major exchanges), there will be "real" short sales in those counts as well. But over a few stocks that I've looked, it appears that *most* of the time *most* of the daily shorts sales are market-maker mechanics at work, not "real" shorts.

     

    The exceptions to this would be those, such as CPST, which are under constant heavy shorting pressure. But even in those the mjority of *daily* shorts at any given moment are most likely just a normal market-maker shorts.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1822) | Send Message
     
    FYI -- short snippet appearing today under an investor alert re: "Battery Stocks on the Move" at Investorideas.com:

     

    "AXION POWER INTL INC (OTCBB: AXPW), a developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, is trading at $0.4999, up 0.0649(14.92%) 12:53PM EST on 279,000 shares."
    http://bit.ly/xFssGr
    19 Jan 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Nice find, Mercy. Will be interesting to see what price-volume tracks like going forward.
    19 Jan 2012, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Momentum players piling in again?! Look for a drop when they get disappointed or the momentum peters out and they exit.

     

    Another "wave" pattern typical of consolidation ought to start to form in a few days.

     

    A SWAG,
    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Most of the trades were at or near .50 after the first 279k shares traded, you think a momentum trader bought 111k at .50?
    20 Jan 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    No way to know, but I wouldn't think so. They would want to buy at a point suggesting lots of upside - our next resistance ~$0.585 is not that far away and is not in an uptrend.

     

    They would be more likely to get in lower as a new sustained uptrend develops. If my judgment is right, we are consolidating. That's why I mentioned exit when disappointed. If they are momo traders, I *think* they won't get what they are looking for *yet*.

     

    So although some may have entered, at a lower price, I don't think that one would be a momo trader.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    You've raised an interesting question HTL so it's time to "stump the expert." My 200-day volume weighted moving average is $0.567. The 200-day SMA is $0.591. How do your calculated resistance points interact with the long-term moving averages?
    20 Jan 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JP: Didn't AXPW top out at $0.585 during the recent run up? That's the figure I have as the next resistance, too.
    20 Jan 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I show $0.585 as the recent top, but I also show $0.596 as the 200-day VWMA on that day. The VWMA has fallen a bit and I'm just curious to know whether the possibility of moving up through the 200-day average will make the resistance point stronger or weaker.
    20 Jan 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Never took a look yet.

     

    But being that the averages are long-term reflections of sentiment while resistance with trend lines, highs, lows, patterns are generally of shorter-term, the various resistance and support points should still be in play but strongly affected by the sentiment denoted by the longer-term averages.

     

    So what may have been a potential reversal point in the past could be converted to a pause (temporary consolidation) at best/worst *unless* it is what is considered a "strong" point - multiple occurrences of demonstrated resistance/support with good volume when they were tested on one or more prior occasions.

     

    Also, were they "minor" (just extremes within a larger trend) or "major" (important reversal points).

     

    So I would expect assessing the interaction would be tough.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way to the next Concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Jan 2012, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • aditi_lic
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    cool
    12 Sep 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    HA! yes it is cool and we are waiting for it to happen again! Thanks for the journey back in time and welcome adit_lic...
    12 Sep 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
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