Seeking Alpha

Mayascribe's  Instablog

Mayascribe
Send Message
Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 51: Beginning Jan. 19, 2012, John Petersen's Follow-Up Article On FINRA Data 184 comments
    Jan 19, 2012 11:04 PM
    A follow-up article article by John Petersen on FINRA Data


    Slicing and Dicing Axion's FINRA Short Data
     
    John Petersen
     
    A few days ago I wrote an article discussing the FINRA Market Maker Short Sale data that H. T. Love was kind enough to share with me. I spent the weekend slicing and dicing with the data trying to get a better feel for when various selling stockholders influenced the market and what their relative impact was. My working thesis is that shares held by Blackrock, Manatuck Hill and one-quarter of the 2009 private placement purchasers are in strong hands while the following stockholders or stockholder classes have been pressuring the market over the last 21 months.

    (click box to enlarge)

     
     
    Working from the FINRA data, I calculated the number of shares that flowed into the market during each quarter starting with Q2-2010. Then I allocated the selling volume to Special Situations and Quercus based on their SEC reports. All sales that couldn't be specifically allocated ended up in the unknown column. The only number that's an outright guess, rather than documented fact, is Q4-2011 sales by Special Situations, which I've highlighted in red.

    (click box to enlarge)
     
     

    The relevance of this kind of analysis is that it offers fascinating insight into when the selling pressure was exerted and by whom. Reporting stockholders like Quercus and, to a lesser extent Special Situations, draw the bulk of the attention (and blame) because they report their activities to the SEC. In reality, the substantial bulk of the pressure came from invisible hands that were in there pushing and shoving around the exit along with the big boys. Like I observed last week, it's been like a fire drill in a sumo training stable.
     
    The importance of this kind of analysis is that it shows why the selling pressures of the past are not likely to be repeated in the future. I was surprised to see that the heaviest selling activity occurred during the Q1-2011 run up and the Q2-2011 run down. In both intervals the heavy hands weren't Quercus and Special Situations. Instead the bulk of the shares that flowed into the market came from the invisible hands.
     
    On a go forward basis I see the market as more supply constrained. The remaining shares that are potentially available for sale break down as follows:
     
    The Quercus Trust
    2,530,851
    Blackrock
    7,150,000
    Manatuck Hill
    7,200,000
    Strong 2009 Investors
    3,600,000
    Total
    20,480,851
     

    Quercus has been very consistent in its selling and I think we can plan on it accounting for 10% of trading volume until the last of its shares are sold. I believe the other potential sellers are more likely to hold, particularly if the price continues to firm. That belief and $5 will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. Since total trading volume in 2011 was 77.7 million shares, as compared with 22 million shares in 2010, the market must find
    equilibrium soon.
Back To Mayascribe's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (184)
Track new comments
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from Mercy Jimenez:

     

    FYI -- short snippet appearing today under an investor alert re: "Battery Stocks on the Move" at Investorideas.com:

     

    "AXION POWER INTL INC (OTCBB: AXPW), a developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, is trading at $0.4999, up 0.0649(14.92%) 12:53PM EST on 279,000 shares."
    http://bit.ly/xFssGr
    19 Jan 2012, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Maya. Google had this in their search results 15 minutes after you published it.
    19 Jan 2012, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » bang: Wow! Damned near instantaneous, real time stuff. So glad you are doing what you are doing.
    20 Jan 2012, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    In the last Concentrator Bangwhiz asked about my theory that the market makers' FINRA short reports and private placement shares. The answer is worth repeating.

     

    When a company sells shares in a private placement, those shares remain "restricted" until they're sold by the original purchaser. Once the shares are sold to someone else, they become unrestricted.

     

    When a market maker gets an order to sell restricted shares, there are back-office procedures that must be followed to remove the restriction.

     

    Until the back office procedures are completed and the restriction is removed, the market maker doesn't have good delivery in hand and is technically short.

     

    Since the FINRA reports include all sales where the market maker does not have good delivery, resales of private placement shares show up as short sales in the FINRA reports.
    20 Jan 2012, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks for such a solid and accessible explanation of the concept. It sure helps a lot. Can we tell much yet from the last few weeks? Are private placement sales starting to dry up? Sorry if this has already been covered.. a little bleary for some reason. debate fatigue I think...
    20 Jan 2012, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    I'm infatuated with the FINRA data because it's a whole new series of data points that I didn't have before. Those points, as stand-alones, don't provide much of a picture. When I overlay the FINRA data, sales that are reported on Form 4, major stockholder reports on Schedule 13D and fund holding reports on Schedule 13-HR, the picture gets far clearer. The big problem is timeliness. We get daily data from FINRA. Quercus files a Form 4 about once a week. There are only a few Schedule 13D filings per year. Fund holding reports come out four times a year. So while there are a lot of clues, there are no definitive answers until all the data is available.
    20 Jan 2012, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John for explanation. So high short sale numbers mean PIPE and related holders are selling and low short sales indicate retail sellers correct? We are assuming that little to none of the short sales numbers are traditional short sales.

     

    Could a MM actually sell short in a traditional sense in the AM if they thought they could cover in the afternoon? Do MM's speculate either long or short although we may be talking a only few hours to a day or two? Lastly, how many MM's does Axion have?

     

    NOTE FOR MAYA> I got a google alert for Axion Concentrator 51 at 12:59 in my gmail inbox. Google has their radars locked on us for certain. Do not mess with those old URL's no matter what they said.
    20 Jan 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    You want to be careful with terms like PIPE because they have specific meanings and usually imply a specific source. I believe the 2009 private placement purchasers have been the primary source of shares that flowed into the market over the last 20 months, but there's no question that stockholders who bought in earlier private offerings contributed something to the total. The shares sold by the bankruptcy estate, for example, were originally issued in 2004. The shares sold by the busted hedge fund came from a 2006 preferred stock offering.

     

    In general, I believe low short sale percentages represent normal trading by open market investors while high short sale percentages indicate resales by private placement purchasers.

     

    Twice a month we get reports of the total outstanding short interest. Those numbers do not include "clearing shorts" that show up in the FINRA daily reports and offer a much clearer picture of the real short interest. The short interest at December 30th, for example, was 52,290 shares, an increase of 51,190 shares from the December 15th value.

     

    During the period from December 16th to 30th, the reported FINRA shorts totaled 1,231,764 shares. My conclusion is that 51,190 of those shares were "true shorts" and the other 1,180,000 shares were "clearing shorts" that represented resales by private placement purchasers.
    20 Jan 2012, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NP bangwhiz. Already figured that out.
    20 Jan 2012, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    BW,

     

    My rolling theory is that the short sales are a smaller percentage of sales on down days and days below .50. For instance, two days ago when we dropped to ~.43 there was only 6% short sales indicating it was all retailers looking to consolidate and dropping their ask. Yesterday, we spent a lot of time climbing and at or near .50 resulting in slightly higher short sale, when the price is rising retailers are not selling as much and when the price is at or near .50 the private placement holders tend to sell more

     

    In Q4 when we had the precipitous drop we all thought it was Special Sits driving the stock into the ground. However, if my theory holds it was actually retailers getting spooked from the "going concern" statement that drove the price down because short sales percentage for that quarter was actually relatively low, accept for the time from dec. 15th to dec. 31 when Special Sits may have been making it final push to exit.

     

    In Q1 and Q2 of last year when we had the run to $1 and the drop down to .60 short sales percentage again was very high, 40% and above, indicating private placement sellers were taking profits.

     

    As we had the increase from .30 to .58 this year retailers were not selling as much during the rise and leaving the majority of sales to the private placement folk ~43%. When we dropped from .58 to .50 last week short sales percentage was lower than previous days during the rise indicating again that retailers were dropping their price to take profits in the .50's.

     

    Anyhow, as HTL said it is still a running theory but I am willing to make a bet that today we stay at or near .50-.52 and short sales are above 35%. Mainly because I believe retailers are done consolidating in the mid-.40's.

     

    ...news flash! that could all be wrong, we will just have to continue watching.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jakurtz: You may be on to something. If you were sitting near your laptop when Chuck Trego mentioned the words "ongoing concern" during the last CC, the bottom fell out of the stock almost instantaneously.

     

    IIRC, I do not remember these were large block, institutional-sized dumping. I saw this as classic knee-jerk selling.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    That is my thoughts. I think over time we have taken for granted the idea that all retailers in this stock are strong hands. While a lot of us that follow it very close might be I have to believe that their are just as many that stumble across JP's writings, get really excited about it, make an emotional buy and just as easily make an emotional sell...it is just the nature of the beast.

     

    The nice thing for me is that, I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that we here know more about this stock than any other retailer just flipping in and out could possibly know. When we thought it was always just the big boys selling their was that nagging, albeit irrational, feeling that the big boys knew something I didn't. I don't think that is the case anymore. Considering they bought at $1 discount in 2009 but the stock had no liquidity it was probably a make or break thing. When SS's new management saw in Q1 and Q2 they could get some profit and get out with adequate liquidity they chose to do so, pretty plain and simple, but again, reflects nothing on the company. We already knew this but sometimes tend to forget.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    This is all finally making sense to me. We don't know for certain that your theory is correct but at least I have a good grasp of it and think it's sound.

     

    Thanks a million (literally, I hope!).

     

    D
    20 Jan 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    It's a bit of an Occam's Razor thing for me. There is nothing else I can think of that would explain the FINRA numbers and the correlation between those numbers and known data points is too close to support an alternative theory. The bottom line is this additional data set is new to me and I don't know the answer, but I've found a theory that correlates well with numbers that defy explanation under alternative theories. Welcome to the inside of my head as I try to puzzle things out in public view.
    20 Jan 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    BW - I have no idea how many MMs there are for AXPW, but I can tell you who is showing up after hours Friday 3/20 with "reasonable" bids and offers:

     

    ASCM BTIG CDRG CSTI FANC HDSN NITE PUMA UBSS VERT

     

    My Fidelity trades have recently been routed through AUTO

     

    Here's one list of market makers:
    http://bit.ly/ArllyT

     

    and another with phone numbers:
    http://bit.ly/xDSLL3
    21 Jan 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Good questions Bang, but with the way Axion has spiked before, ie just last week, I would think shorting it in the traditional sense would be a good way to get creamed...
    20 Jan 2012, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    If you go to http://bit.ly/A3TYY3 and pull up an Axion quote, you can select "short sales" from the menu on the left of the page. This value represents the current balance of true short sales at each reporting date. The number bounces around a lot because of normal market making activity, but the total has always been insignificant. Since the number is consistently small, I believe nobody other than market makers are shorting Axion and even the market makers are being very cautious. While nobody reports market maker long positions, my experience is that market makers try to keep their long and short positions as close to zero as humanly possible.
    20 Jan 2012, 02:38 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    This is more of what we should expect with AXPW financing...AONE only down 10%. (sorry with Schwab I can't post just a link)

     

    Jan 20 (Reuters) - A123 Systems Inc :
    * Announces registered direct offering of common stock and warrants
    * Proceeds to A123 from sale of units are expected to be approximately $23.5
    million
    * Says offering priced at $2.034 per share
    * Entered into definitive agreement with an institutional investor to sell an
    aggregate of 12.5 million units
    ((Bangalore Equities Newsroom; +91 80 4135 5800; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780))
    ((For more news, please click here ))
    For Reuters Top News page click the following link:
    http://bit.ly/xSc0H9
    Copyright (C) Reuters 2012. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without t e prior written consent of Reuters.
    20 Jan 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    I think my above post should tell us that financing is available(maybe on favorable terms too), and AXPW may not be adversely affected as much as has been talked about.
    I agree with Mercy's comment yesterday, I will be glad when it comes.
    20 Jan 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    >LT thanks for sharing. The AONE offering of 23.5 mio equals to ~8% of market cap. If Axion is going for the full 18 mio, that would be an increase of 45% in market cap. Thats quite a difference I think.
    20 Jan 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    The deal is cooler than the Bloomberg blurb indicates.

     

    The investor is buying 12.5 million units that each consist of one share of common and a $2.71 warrant.

     

    In June of this year, A123 will have the right to require the investor to buy up to 12.5 million additional common shares at a price that represents a 10% discount to their volume weighted average price at that time. The only limitation is that A123 can't require the purchaser to buy more than $100 million of additional shares.

     

    http://bit.ly/wBsBQO
    20 Jan 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    That may be true, but ... maybe AXPW is undervalued?
    and..it depends on what the money is used for?
    and...if there are new sales to justify expansion?

     

    My bet right now is that AXPW is safer than AONE.

     

    btw...AONE actually trading higher than the offering was priced in premarket @ 2.10/2.14. They are also losing money hand over fist, and just lowered revenue guidance.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    Hi F-Kru,
    I am not following your thoughts here, could you explain?
    -------------------
    Actually , I think I get it. You mean to say, ..." ~8% of outstanding shares." NOT market cap. Market cap is the outstanding shares multiplied by the price per share.

     

    AXPW's potential offering of 18M shares is about 21% of their current outstanding shares of 85M

     

    A123's offering of 12.5M shares with total outstanding currently at ~125M shares equals about 10% of their current outstanding.

     

    The price of 2.034 is about a 10% discount to Thursday's close.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Axion's shelf registers up to $28 million of securities that can include common stock, preferred stock, debt instruments or almost anything else a clever lawyer can conjure up. It is not limited to 18 million shares. Some months back Tom said the board authorized him to go looking for $18 million in financing. What the board will ultimately approve depends on far more variables than we could ever nail down today.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Another thing to keep in mind is that AXPW's offering is expected to be a response to a need to increase production capacity for orders in hand.

     

    This is likely to be seen as less dilutive (see JPs beer/whiskey analogy).

     

    Further, TG is looking to issue at a higher price, so the numbers will not be as severe as your calculation using current price suggests.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm still of the opinion that some pretty significant news/announcements will hit the wires before the shelf, which will drive up the share price.

     

    Purchase orders in-hand means something is afoot, and likely coming within a month.

     

    I agree with other commenters that at whatever the shelf offering price is, we won't remain at that level very long. Like Mercy, I'm looking forward to getting thwacked once again, and am totally unconcerned about getting thwacked. I'm confident that within just a few trading sessions later the share price will recuperate...and then some.
    20 Jan 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Well, yes and no. We know that at least some of the offering is needed to just keep the doors open. If TG comes out with a small offering we assume it is just to keep the doors open. If he comes out with a much larger one we assume it is for both.
    20 Jan 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    LabTech: IIRC, the "keep the doors open" is needed before EOQ 2?

     

    I'm thinking we see a raise by EOM March with PR/News supporting it.

     

    So my comments are along those lines.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I believe you recall correctly. From the 11Q3 10-Q (page 15),
    "We believe that the currently available funds at September 30, 2011, along with internally generated funds, will provide sufficient
    financial resources for ongoing operations, working capital, and capital expenditures through the second quarter of 2012."

     

    Another passage on that page of the 10-Q left me looking for an explanation. That passage reads, "When we raised funds in December 2009, we anticipated a significant funding award from the Department of Energy based on their August 2009 announcement listing us as a grant awardee. Unfortunately we never received that award, nor have we as of yet received an award for the second year of our ONR grant from the Department of Defense."

     

    Anyone know what lies behind "the second year of our ONR grant"?
    20 Jan 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    I seem to recall reading that the ONR grant was a congressional earmark and they've had a tough time of late with budget battles.
    21 Jan 2012, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    >John, thanks for the clarification. This kind of flexibility would be very nice to have for Axion.

     

    >jakurtz, maybe I confused the numbers. Isn't Axion's shelf registration for $18m-$28m dollars? If you compare that to the market cap of ~$40m, that's 45% to +%70. If AONE rised $23.5mio that would be around 8% of the current market cap of $285m.
    Things look differently with the information that John provided, that AONE can raise up to $100m. That's 35% of the current market cap, so that compares better percentage wise.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    Question for John or anyone else. If there are multiple parties interested in financing because they believe the company will succeed and want a big piece of the company then could one of them actually pay a premium to get in? I keep assuming it would be at a discount, but if risk is off the table could it be feasible that someone would pay lets say a 10% premium as opposed to a 10% discount? Is that even feasible?
    20 Jan 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    It could be feasible, and it is possible but not probable. At the current price of AXPW stock I just don't expect it to be at as much discount to the price/shr. as we once thought.
    As we just saw with AONE, the stock price could actually go up soon too with the uncertainty out of the way. The market does not like uncertainty.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    If people like MJ are having a hard time getting in in the .40's to build a modest position. I have a hard time believing anyone who wants 5M or more shares will have the luxury of buying near these prices.
    20 Jan 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    Her comment is what made me think of the possibility. There's not enough shares available to establish a significant position in the company. Also, if someone wanted to become part owner in the business I own, I wouldn't be selling them a portion at a discounted price.
    20 Jan 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Its possible but unlikely. If you wanted to buy in then you would just buy on the open market. It may take a while but you'd atleast get a position without restrictions. I always assume the discount is due to the restrictions that usually come with these sorts of deals.
    20 Jan 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CoryM & jakutz: Both of your comments sum up my "Church Pew" theory quite nicely. An available share squeeze is right on our horizon.
    20 Jan 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    In a registered direct deal there generally aren't any restrictions but if the deal is a respectable size liquidity is a concern. Conventional wisdom holds that direct investors can't resell shares at a rate that exceeds 10% of daily volume without adversely impacting the price.

     

    For a demonstration of what happens when direct investors try to sell too quickly we don't need to look beyond our own backyard.

     

    A123's 200-day average daily trading volume is 2.8 million shares. If they act responsibly, the new investors shouldn't try to sell more than 280,000 shares a day, which means it would take 45 trading days, or a little over two months, if they wanted to resell their entire position into the market. A 10% discount to reflect a slow pace of sales and market risks over two months is not unreasonable.
    20 Jan 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Given the share squeeze that Maya refers to, and I believe we may be in by this time, I would think it unlikely to be able to accumulate 5 mil shares before the price went up more than 10%. With a 10 day avg vol of 425K shares, you would have to buy every available share for 2 full trading weeks.

     

    Or, if you were very patient, you may build that position over time, but in doing so, you would be taking a big chance that the market won't drive the price up on its own while you are trying to patiently hoard low cost shares.

     

    That said, I have ZERO experience in setting out to buy 5 mil shares of any company, so I have little experience in that regard.
    26 Jan 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    While deals can occasionally go at a premium price to a strategic partner, I've never been involved in one although I've had lots of clients who at least made the pitch.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    3 simple expectations for AXPW this year would make me very happy:

     

    1. Get the product out in multiple markets in real life uses just like PJM/Viridity, the Navy building, etc. Vast amounts of mkt.'s if possible. Business breeds business.
    2. Get positive feedback on how well the product works and ROI.
    3. Follow up orders in the 3rd & 4th quarters of this year.

     

    I remember when Maxwell landed it's first customers, the naysayers said it didn't amount to any dollars and was meaningless. Then came buses, then came auto, now trains, etc. If we can follow in their footsteps, just look at their revenues & stock price.
    20 Jan 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    More standoff 1st hour ...
    Vol=23,300

     

    (delayed)
    $0.4850 100 OBB 09:44:27
    $0.4800 1,000 OBB 09:44:27
    $0.4890 9,000 OBB 09:32:42
    $0.4839 1,000 OBB 09:32:19
    $0.4839 1,000 OBB 09:30:14
    $0.4839 9,000 OBB 09:30:11

     

    Doesn't look like many willing sellers much below .50

     

    .50 is an interesting change point in another way as well
    below .50 offer needs to be 5000 shares to be seen on Level II
    above you only need 2500 ...
    20 Jan 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    .50 has been a S/R line frequently the past 5-6 months. I think a lot of people are averaged + or - .10 cents around this number. See chart here: http://bit.ly/AnbOQ2
    20 Jan 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    BW,
    I find it very useful to find support/resistance lines to make sure that one is using volume to support that criteria. When I look at a long term Axion stock chart it is clear that the majority of accumulation has occurred between $.55 and $.90 between January and April of this year and has occurred between $.50 and $.33 the last couple of months. If I understand human psychology of stock ownership ( and there is no evidence that I do) those scared purchasers early in the year sold at the end of the year. This means that little resistance is left. Forget the charts on this one. Large purchasers at $.57 from the PM are gone. Weak hands that bought early in 2011 are gone. From this point on its simply a matter of how much profit the shareholders want to keep.

     

    Pull up a 5 year weekly chart with volume and let me know what you think.
    20 Jan 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Another place to keep track of Axion, called http://www.stocknod.com

     

    Here's today's sheet:

     

    http://bit.ly/xSEPhq
    20 Jan 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Linked within the stocknod site is this yesterday mention of Axion:

     

    http://bit.ly/zFygP9
    20 Jan 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    100K at .49 after not much for quite a while ... and I thought we were starting to slowly slide ...

     

    Vol now 330K
    20 Jan 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    That's two days in a row - yesterday 111K @ 50 shown as a sell and today 100K @ $0.49 shown as a sell.

     

    As with yesterday, that ruined the buy:sell, which today at 14:12:51 buy and sell were 85,400 and 81,300 (1.05:1). Then a 40K and a couple miscellaneous smaller *buys* were offset by that 100K *sell* giving buy and sell at 14:17:14 of 139,034 and 181,300 (1:1.03).

     

    So, two days in a row, two larger positions liquidated around the same time (yesterday was 14:28). Both days very near the intra-day highs.

     

    Stick this memo on the fridge and see if it repeats. I had mentioned an earlier shift towards weakening buy:sell starting 'round the 14:00 area a day or two ago. Didn't have the large block trades that day though.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    It's not uncommon for a big buyer to come in with an offer that splits the spread between the bid and the ask so if the prior transaction was at the ask and it was followed by a spread splitting buy from a big investor, it would report as a sale in your calculations even though it was in fact a buy. Unless you're willing to assume that market makers are putting their capital at risk going very short on a very volatile stock you can pretty well count on the real buy-sell ratio being 1:1 every day.

     

    The series of transactions before the 111,000 block were a 5,000 share sale at .48 and a 7,900 share buy at .495. The 111,000 block at .49 is far more likely to be a slightly discounted block purchase than a block sale.
    20 Jan 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    My buy/sell is *not* a tracking of transaction volumes. It is an assignment to those categories by ADVFN trade reporting based on whether the trade is very near the ask, the bid or somewhere in the middle (assigned to "unknown").

     

    It *might* be useful as an indicator of sentiment and bias up or down is my thought.

     

    According to ADVFN help screen (and my snapshots) those were sells because the sales were $0.49 with bid/ask $0.49/$0.495 today and $0.50 with bid/ask $0.50/$0.503 yesterday.

     

    When there is a price substantially distanced from either side of bid/ask, it's supposed to be classified as "unknown".

     

    Since market-makers can see at least every order in their portfolio, and maybe a lot more than that and what we can see, I don't think they need to risk their capital. I think they would provide liquidity, risking capital, only if the odds seemed very high that they could dispose of the shares, if they bought, or cover the shares, if they shorted, based on knowledge they have in-hand.

     

    As to the two 100K+ trades under discussion, the market maker may not be involved at all. They occurred in one of the *many* "cross trade" windows that NASDAQ provides for negotiated sales and could be broker-to-broker or customer-to-customer (and could involve a market-maker I guess, although that is not the intent of a "cross trade") within a single broker and/or combinations of those I guess. Also, the fact that it was in that window doesn't mean it was a cross trade. Just no way to be sure of anything.

     

    Since I have no way to ascertain who are the counter-parties, I try to avoid assuming that any particular trade (other than opening and closing blocks on some stocks I watch) involves the market-maker.

     

    I do assume that most small trades will flow through a market-maker though. And even those that don't do get reported, making it impossible for us to know who's involved.

     

    If the market-maker is involved in those two big transactions and they are short sales, I presume there are backing sell orders from a broker that will provide shares to cover the short sales.

     

    As to actual price - I have no way to guess what a market-maker really paid since I likely never can connect the original order with the market-maker action. A 100K short sale by the market-maker might show up as a 100K buy (or many smaller buys?) up to three days later, normally, for all I know.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    So somebody (a mid-level functionary for say quercus or equivalent) who has a task to sell X number that day (say 100K shares) waits and watches how things are shaking out that day, and when satisfied that there's no big action, hits their sell at what looks like a decent price for the day and then heads out for early happy hour? Enter next week, repeat, if at end of day shares held does not equal zero, goto beginday, day=day+1? ;)
    20 Jan 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Well, maybe 100K wouldn't match, but ...

     

    That's what I was wondering. If we end today at, say, 330K, and Quercus was in the market for three days, about 126K should show as short sales (if no pre-convert to electronic form under street name was done) over the three days.

     

    Wed. and Thu. shorts show ~115.8 shorts now. Of course, there's likely other short sales flagged. So if I apply JP's 86%, we get ~99.6K, leaving room for ~26K to hit right on 10% for the three days. A few extra or fewer K shouldn't matter. So I would look for short sales this evening to hit somewhere in the ballpark, with 86% applied(?), if Quercus is being sold.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting discovery. I just went into my Zecco Community and learned that there are 33 people who own Axion shares. I've never participated in Zecoo community anything; chat, blogging, whatever (just a tad busy here!). But was amazed to see how many people from this cheapo, small time trading outfit who hold Axion shares.

     

    There were four "five day buys" and three "five day sells." Meaning during the past five days, five have bought Axion, and four have sold it. Today so far, there has been three buys and two sells. Of course, this could be a patterned day trader making these moves.

     

    But still, 33 people owning Axion I found to be an impressive figure.

     

    Do any of you other folks' trading platforms show how many people own Axion and how they are trading it?

     

    By the way, the "Median Portfolio Weight" is 2%. Guessing I skew that figure just a smidgen!
    20 Jan 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correction: There were four buys over the past five days, and three sells.

     

    Nice close today!
    20 Jan 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    FWIW... Will be adding 10k into the close
    20 Jan 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I added 10k earlier at $.47...

     

    No explanation, I just had to buy them. They were just laying there, whispering, "Buy me".
    20 Jan 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Hi. My name's William and I averaged up today.
    20 Jan 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Hello, William. Welcome to Axionistas Anonymous.
    22 Jan 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    A new acronym: "AxA". Good logo.
    22 Jan 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    HardToLove... 10k at .4979 (and 10k earlier in the session @.49)

     

    Hope it helps your TA numbers for the day.

     

    I have a gut feeling we won't see very many more days below .50c

     

    Next week will be interesting!!! Have a great weekend everyone!
    20 Jan 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Good weekend to all!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    Somehow I just had two comments disappear??? How?

     

    I was responding to Jakurtz
    20 Jan 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, Occam, I deleted my comment which probably deleted yours. I realized my question was not correct. I have been seeing someone bracketing the bid/ask spread with .0001 above the bid and .0001 below the ask both at 10K shares. Interesting tactic but I can not see how it would work well. Anyhow, I was wrongly thinking it might have been you after you talked about your 2 10k buys, but then realized it could not have been.

     

    I am Interested to hear what you had to say.
    I think buys below .50 are a good bet going into next week, it feels right to me too. good luck.
    20 Jan 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    If by "someone" you mean the market maker indicated on level II, those could easily be (and most likely are) orders from different individuals.
    20 Jan 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    Ahhhh, I see, Thanks WTB. So one market maker is willing to narrow the spread to get his shares sold or bought? It is funny because I did not see that happening much until the last couple of weeks, at least not nearly as often as I see it now.
    20 Jan 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    Hi jakurtz:

     

    Thanks for explaining... thought I was hallucinating or something.
    Assuming you read my comment, I bought 3X10k chunks today using limit orders... which became limit on the offer, once I realized how tight the market was... a good thing, IMO.

     

    I've been accumulating AXPW under .50c since December. I found the shares made great "stocking stuffers" around Christmas, and picked up a bunch in the .30s... Now I'm simply accumulating on the dips below .50.

     

    I found JP in November, which led me inexorably to Maya and this concentrator. After copious reading (mostly from JP) I began to like the risk/reward relationship with Axion and Exide, for that matter.

     

    To be clear, I'm not looking to flip in and out of Axion. I've written before (in this space) I'm wanting to see where this PbC technology goes, and quite frankly, I'm prepared for AXPW to go in any direction. In other words, i'm not using lunch money.

     

    I think once we clear .65, 1.00 will come somewhat quick. That being said, I think we might hang in the .50s for a while. I'm prepared to wait

     

    Good luck,

     

    Jason
    20 Jan 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    JAK: it may be the market-maker, but it can also be an individual's order. Especially when spreads are tight and a trader wants to improve the chance of order fill, they can place on order with 1/100th penny amounts, moving ahead of less attractive prices, and hoping someone will meet it with either a limit or market order.

     

    I think this holds any time a stock is under $1. Not sure.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes I will move .0001 "ahead" of a big size order if I'm concerned there won't be enough liquidity at that price to fill us both, e.g., if I'm feeling the momentum in a direction is about to reverse.

     

    Of course, deep pockets can play games with these big orders that they don't expect to get filled to try to get people like me "off the snide." (though DPs most likely aren't playing in AXPW!)

     

    Remember, just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean they're not out to get you :-)
    21 Jan 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    As a new investor trying to build a core i would not mind another consolidation into the upper 30's. Funny as i tried to add my first purchase of 10k shares it had to be broken into 2 trades about 4 minutes apart.

     

    I found that unusual for a small purchase but is that the norm for this stock??

     

    I use Schwab and i guess it was trading a little above 49 at that point so maybe someone had to accept a flat 49 limit??
    20 Jan 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    MAP: That's common for OTC stocks - it's much more manual than the major exchanges. And there's a lot of very small orders often. The market-maker often has to aggregate orders over time to fill an order on the other side.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    I keep all my stock notes (and clippings) on Zoho.com's notebook service http://bit.ly/v3B75z

     

    It's been down for the first time in my memory for several hours today.

     

    Appreciate y'all being kinda quiet today :-)

     

    But seriously, found this summary of the problem so far from one of their customers interesting, and related to Battery Backups/UPS.

     

    http://bit.ly/yhAb91

     

    http://blogs.zoho.com has more of the blow by blow, and they were pretty good on twitter giving updates and talking to customers

     

    http://bit.ly/yShnHE
    20 Jan 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Viridity Energy makes Bloomberg
    http://bloom.bg/AyBCzD
    20 Jan 2012, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    "Viridity doesn’t charge for its software; it takes a cut of any revenue its customers make by selling to the grid. Jeremy Rifkin, an adviser on energy policy to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other European heads of state, notes that similar technology has helped over 1 million buildings in Germany sell their power to the grid over the past four years."

     

    Nice biz model--prob helps speed adoption, and nicely aligns the customer's and Viridity's economic motivation. "The more you save, the more we make--we're partners in success."

     

    So, is there a ready mkt in Germany for PowerCubes? Go get'm, guys!
    20 Jan 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Youtube video clip. Laurie Actman of Viridity Energy discusses the benefits of smart grid technology for buildings, cities and sustainability.

     

    http://bit.ly/A6p7w3
    20 Jan 2012, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    Found this to be an interesting clip. Thanks.
    21 Jan 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Liked the part near the end about working with New York City :-)
    21 Jan 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    I liked the diagram that showed 'the power grid of the future'.

     

    There were a few little icons on it labelled 'Energy Storage' but in my mind they read 'Powercube'.

     

    D
    21 Jan 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » painomanshi: Excellent Power Point presentation. SEPTA mentioned again.

     

    I'm curious about the, "major hospital." Which one it is. My broker sits on the board of The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. He might be interested in what Veridity is doing.

     

    Thanks for this outstanding link.
    21 Jan 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    I also want to thank you for the link.
    Just curious but did any one else find the commentator to be as boring as a lecture on "demand energy of the future".
    22 Jan 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    Fut...
    Normally yes...however, due to the extent, amplification and scope of JP's initiation and Maya's extension of AXPW...EV...power storage blogs et al...I was actually able to follow and understand main concepts...and I hail from mainly community bank environment (with many M&A scars to show)..one of those naive "stupid" "hick" bankers referenced in Liar's Poker...
    23 Jan 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    General Info I thought some folks might enjoy. It explains why I try to understand some of the stuff I do. It makes me hope I'm not one of the "dumb money". It's one reason I don't rely only on TA, but try to mix in what I can from FINRA, buy:sell ratios, understanding the mechanics, and external information as well.

     

    I hope you all find it useful.

     

    http://bit.ly/zwviUo

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    HT, Great article on the Market Makers!! I am slowly learning how the market works with your analysis, JP's supply and demand theory, and others' comments. The article on the Market Makers helps clear the fog a little more. I've come to realize that all these graphs and numbers are simply tools to get inside the collective mind of the unknown investors.
    20 Jan 2012, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1889) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Great article for getting a sneak peak at "behind the scenes" activity of a market maker. Thanks so much for sharing.

     

    And a very special thanks for all you do daily on these pages to make us smarter about TA and the inner workings of the market. Your disclosures about being "new at this ... so pay attention at your own risk" are particularly entertaining!
    mj
    20 Jan 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    HTL. I would rather read through the thousands of lines of the Viritidy code than try and make sense of that article. Glad to have you ever present and not bashful...
    20 Jan 2012, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    All I could take away from it is this: Don't get spooked into selling absent serious material reasons. Follow the company. And if you believe in it, accumulate, albeit warily. If the opportunities come, make your moves, but don't be jumpy. You're probably not smart enough to beat the short term traders at their own game. Remember why you believe. And if the thesis holds, so should you. Don't let yourself get shaken out. Keep tracking the fundamentals. Don't get played. And In the fullness of time, when the real developments come, pennies won't matter...

     

    Okay, so I need to read it again. ;)
    20 Jan 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    "This inherent power of position enables the MMs to move the markets at any time up or down. As a result, the only way to draw them out of their favorable position is going long. Now this does not mean just any company but to effectively nail the MMs, Longs must find the great company on the floor and accumulate long before the MM tactics and games begin."

     

    Done and done.
    21 Jan 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Let the games begin! ;)
    21 Jan 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Just thought I'd pop this up alone today.

     

    0120 Short 244,934, Vol 341,334, Short sales 71.76%

     

    What do you think this means today? Big sell orders received? Or maybe one of the scenarios described in the article I linked above about market-maker tactics playing out? With the narrow spread seen today, is the market maker in a bind now, or setting up to try to force price down to cover?

     

    I don't know, but I'm going to troll back through my data and see what I can see.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. Reading that makes one think of TheSilverBullet.
    20 Jan 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    OT Completely> Just bought a used Tmobile LG Optimus T budget android 2.2 smartphone for $61 on Ebay to replace my budget symbian OS Nokia Nuron. Came today and works great - loads Concentrators almost as fast as my old laptop over wifi. No data charges using wifi to surf.

     

    Like leaving the stone age (that's where Nokia is at) and landing in 2011. I would say Nokia has a hell of a road to travel to even begin to compete with all the android smart phones and the IPhone. Include Rim in the vise grip of those two juggernauts also. Look at Nokia's chart here: http://bit.ly/xp2Tnq
    20 Jan 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    OT bang> I have the Nokia Lumia 800 for two months. I very much love the device, had the Motorola Droid before with Android 2.2. I like Windows Phone much better than Android - it is simple, fast and has great battery life.
    21 Jan 2012, 05:37 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    F-kru> Good to hear that. Maybe Nokia can make a comeback. The new CEO from Microsoft probably sent out a memo entitled "Time to Kill Symbian, Drive a Stake Thru It's Heart, And Burn The Corpse."
    21 Jan 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    bang> Or was it "Why the Symbian House of Cards must fall?" :-) I'm pretty confident Elop will turn the ship around.
    21 Jan 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    HTL...if your right about the MM's being caught short (and I believe you are) then next week we should retest the .58 a couple of times. I think the MM's get burnt trying the pull backs because too many are building positions on every pull back.
    I know that Mercy and someone else mentioned that they were having trouble getting orders filled and they were filled in small blocks. Sounds like MM's having to fill the orders and being naked short at the end. That's probably how we got from .25 to .58 so fast too.
    20 Jan 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    LT

     

    I am new to building a core of this stock and had a problem getting 10k shares filled. It took two differnt blocks about 5 minutes apart. This was at 49 cents!!! I know you long term holders don't want to see this stock back in the 30 cent range again but this newbie would be buying to accumulate.

     

    HTL, Your posting of the workings of the MM made this decision even easier for me. Would not mind seeing the MM squirm some!!

     

    Plus adding at a lower level would be fine with me, now it looks like when it hit 42 cents the other day the stocks were gobbled up, so not sure we will see a 30 cent stock again. But i will be lurking. If it doesn't happen i will be just as happy seeing it go up as well!!
    21 Jan 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    Congrat's on adding AXPW to your holdings. IMO, in the long run I don't think a nickel or dime in entry price will be substantial.
    22 Jan 2012, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Just to let you know. Way back in 2009 , when buffalo roamed the earth, it took 5 days to accumulate 5000 share of Axion stock.

     

    The days of very low volume are over. It use to be that 20,000 shares didn't trade in a day.

     

    Just be cool and accumulate whatever you can. That alone makes you smarter than the average bear.
    22 Jan 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    LT: I'm not so optimistic. With the likely bank behind the MMs, they can likely exhaust buyers eventually.

     

    When that happens, they can then move the price down big and scare any non-dedicated holders into selling.

     

    And let us not forget - there's not only "us'ns" and other retailers the market makers can be unknowingly battling among themselves.

     

    *IF* they haven't made the "it's stormy" phone call, and *if* only one (or a few) MMs are in a bad position while others happen to be long, the longs can sell at lower prices to the MMs who are in bad shape, with no collusion or other shenanigans.

     

    The selling MMs make some money, the buying ones get out be the skin of their teeth.

     

    All hypothetical, of course.

     

    I'm building some charts over a couple years that may let us foretell what will happen next. Unsure, but I'll post where everyone can examine and we can analyze the sh*t out of them to see if we spot useful patterns.

     

    Should be ready late tonight. I'll post a link when I've got them up.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jan 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    As always THANKS in advance for all your hard work for us....

     

    map
    23 Jan 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Isn't as equally likely that the stormy call got made when we up around .59 and the push down to .42 last week was the result?

     

    Maybe they're all pretty much squared up and now we're all gonna be watching paint dry till we get some news.
    23 Jan 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I tend to agree.. that precipitous push down, right at the next opening, sure looked like a crowd acting in concert...
    23 Jan 2012, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    With a cursory (and preliminary) look at my charts, hard to say.

     

    I've got them all made, but got to go eat now. Will start uploading tomorrow.

     

    Tiresome.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jan 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    My very cloudy crystal ball says that we get a run up to .60-.65 prior to CC on expectation of positive announcements regarding sales- that is if there is no positive news before CC. Depending on sales and financing info at CC, we could go then + or - 30 cents (as low as .35 or high as .95) within several days.
    If positive news before CC, we get run up to .80-.85 and +/- .20 after CC.
    Did I mention my crystal ball only works sporadically, has a large crack in it from being dropped on the floor, and frequently gives out incoherent and nonsensical information - kind of like it has been hitting the Becherovka too often.
    21 Jan 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    JlyLeLuce: "Did I mention my crystal ball only works sporadically, has a large crack in it from being dropped on the floor"

     

    My cracks are from a rather larger sledge hammer when I discovered it lied to me!

     

    "Acting out" can be quite therapeutic!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jan 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Imagine if you did tax loss selling near the end of December, and you were expecting to re-establish your position 30 "wash rule" days later ... Ouch.

     

    Price much higher, and not a ton of liquidity to rebuild without forcing it even higher if you're trying to re-establish a large position and you're afraid the train is leaving the station (possibly literally :-) )

     

    But I suppose if you booked a big loss that offsets gains for the year, it might have been worth it.

     

    But it may be good we seem to be drawing a bunch of new owners, because we may have lost some who can't bear to buy back in at these levels (if they're looking at it on a percentage basis from the bottom instead of a percentage basis from what we expect the top to be.)
    21 Jan 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Princeton Power Systems (PowerCube Inverter maker) has a new job opening ... Senior Director of Sales posted 1/20/12

     

    http://bit.ly/yvJnmS
    21 Jan 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Its been a little while since I chimed in. Let me start by saying thanks,, for all the great info that is shared here. It is appreciated.
    Speaking of crystal balls and future views.. well, I seriously need to get new glasses,,or something. The share price is holding up much better than I thought it would after a serious double in two weeks. There may be a lil re-test to the mid 40's and then a climb over .50 I see the next resistance in the .60 area, and wonder if there is a lot of blue sky / easy sailing above that? Anyone see much resistance after .60?
    After all the noise and hoopla I dont see the shelf being much more than a hick-up and it most likely will be a starting gun on a 100 yd dash imo. There may be a hickup there, but unless its on really horrible terms it will act as a catalyst for some share price increase. Hope all is well all over Axionistaville.
    21 Jan 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    Japan Girds for Summer Power Cuts

     

    http://on.wsj.com/xVjLEn+

     

    "TOKYO—The official overseeing Japan's energy industry said there may be no nuclear reactors operating when power demand peaks this summer, as the country struggles with how far and fast to reduce its reliance on nuclear energy."

     

    Past SA comment..."...Axion's new marketing arm, Rosewater Energy..."

     

    Knock..knock...I am here, and I am not from the government, I represent AXPW...let's talk...
    21 Jan 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    If you don't have a subscription, go to news.google.com and type Japan Girds for Summer Power Cuts into the search box. The resulting obvious link will take you to the full text.
    21 Jan 2012, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    I heard on Frontline (PBS) a while back that the last nuke plant in Japan would go down for refueling before this Summer. None are being refueled/restarted yet. I recall that nukes supply about 20% of Japan's electricity.
    I like PbC batteries just fine, but they need something to CHARGE them. What is Japan going to do for Energy? Solar and wind won't come near generating enough, even with massive battery storage. I see a lot of sweating there this Summer.
    Longer term, will they install lots of gas turbines? What fuel? Possibly liquified natural gas? From where?

     

    How will their economy PAY for all of that generating hardware and imported fuel? They will borrow. The Japanese government is coming to the end of the vast savings store of the thrifty Japanese people. Given their history of the last 20 years, I don't see how it's possible for them to "grow out of it". Their economy is FLAT. When the amount added to personal savings drops below the amount being withdrawn to finance personal retirement, the squishy, smelly material impacts the rotary impeller device.

     

    Japan will need to borrow money on the world market at something well over the paltry amount they are now paying the Japanese citizens ( 1%? less?). The Japanese gov debt is big and they will crater if they have to pay more than 2-3%. They have been running a big (ok, huge) deficit this year with the earthquake-tsunami mess. It looks bad. I'm betting with an ETF that they will print yen like crazy and the yen/dollar will fall fast and far. Existing Japanese gov bonds should plunge in value.

     

    "Made in Japan" will get cheap again :-(

     

    Sorry about the digression.
    21 Jan 2012, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Siliconhillbilly,
    Actually I think it's closer to 30-40% that they were getting from nuclear, so it's worse than you think. All I've heard them say is that they are going to buy lots of fossil fuels to replace all the nuclear plants. Won't that just make all the environmentalist happy! And yes, they are going to have to borrow like mad to pay for all those fossil fuels. Not going to be pretty.
    21 Jan 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    NATGAS
    22 Jan 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    mag: I own pipelines and processors, but not much production. The flood of NG is going to do bad things to "those that drill" unless the US rapidly ups our consumption of NG.
    Looks like LNG transport ships and companies that own the LNG infrastructure will do well, but even 25% of Japan's energy can't make them all that big a customer.
    I'll stick with playing the fall of the Yen. Carefully.
    22 Jan 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Short term I believe you are correct, shb, but long term...

     

    Japan's choices are really harsh. As a homogenaic society (perhaps the MOST so on the planet, to the point of cultural xenophobia) Japan's national leaders will push for energy efficiency and get them from the public and industry - but not THAT much, and not that quick. Expect to see industrialists shifting work to night shifts (designed to use idle generating capacity not available during the day). So there will be a shortfall, and a big one. The first time the major media features shots of the lights of Tokyo flickering out in a widespread brownout...

     

    Anyway, Japan (nor ANY major country) cannot replace a major chunk of its energy infrastructure overnight. IF they elect to go with natural gas for a big chunk of it, we will have ample time to review which new plants are planned and where. There is also a potent political element. As the next national election looms, there is little doubt that the current leftist government will receive much of the blame for the disaster, and its impact on the national lifestyle. Will a much more traditional, center-right government follow the same path? I doubt this. We may see a new government strike out along a very different route.

     

    As for the yen, if your bet is that it will decline greatly in value over a near term period, be very careful... China is the major currency manipulator involved, and its noteworthy that even when the BOJ expends immense effort to drive down the value of the yen, it fails...
    23 Jan 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    SHB...agreed...pipelin... production
    and the US politicizing the entire energy segment.
    NATGAS can be a nice bridge for the US
    and at least a partial solution/bridge for Japan,
    albeit time and infrastructure issues...
    politics notwithstanding...
    23 Jan 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    I like a small Canadian company that does all kind of pipeline assessments:
    http://yhoo.it/ArxjJ0
    http://yhoo.it/yIferk

     

    Specific to oil and gas:
    http://bit.ly/ypQZrW

     

    http://bit.ly/yuhiMQ

     

    They got hurt big time in the last year because a big part of their business was in Libya, but I think that biz is getting recovered. They have rolled up several companies in related business in the last couple of years. Wouldn't surprise me to see them gobbled up one of these days.

     

    There were a couple of articles here on SA last year:
    http://bit.ly/y3TFby

     

    Water is one theme I think will grow more and more important, though of course there are some seriously big boys competing in the field, and the relatively recent Breakup of ITT helped create a new "pure play." I think the general water theme would have played out sooner except for large parts of the world being in recession.

     

    I haven't seen any recent contracts w.r.t Petroleum Pipelines, and I'm not sure who the big competition is there.
    23 Jan 2012, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Hi, everyone

     

    I just want to let you know one thing. If you come across a company called 'Viridity' , pls note that it is different from 'Viridity Energy' - Axion's partner.

     

    Don't get confused.

     

    Viridity : http://www.viridity.com

     

    Viridity Energy : http://bit.ly/v5ohew

     

    Thanks.
    21 Jan 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >pianomanshl ... Two companies in basically the same business with basically the same name. What are the odds. Someone in the naming department screwed up(?). Things like this cost sales & reputation from one or the other or both.
    21 Jan 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to all for the many posts re: the Grid & Viridity.

     

    While I was on you tube watching the power point presentation I also looked at many related clips. I will have to admit I was totally overwhelmed at the developments, interest & needs that the PC can do well at. Sure I knew about all the conversions to nat.gas, flywheel, thermo energy on the production side, but had no idea that battery storage had so much interest developing.

     

    I personally believe the grid may be AXPW's largest near term market. If Viridity would just make PbC their choice of battery then I think we get the big boost needed for steady new revenues quickly.
    22 Jan 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... See that is what I'm talking about. I think you meant Viridity Energy not plain vanilla Viridity.
    22 Jan 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    I did mean Viridity Energy...just lazy when it comes to typing .. I would expect this will have to be resolved sooner rather than later. Unless it is the same company with different divisions already.
    22 Jan 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Suggestion to the group: Make "VE" (Viridity Energy, though "Victory in Europe" is not a bad historical reference) the standard for axionista use.
    22 Jan 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Futurist> Awhile back you posted "BW,
    I find it very useful to find support/resistance lines to make sure that one is using volume to support that criteria. When I look at a long term Axion stock chart it is clear that the majority of accumulation has occurred between $.55 and $.90 between January and April of this year and has occurred between $.50 and $.33 the last couple of months. If I understand human psychology of stock ownership ( and there is no evidence that I do) those scared purchasers early in the year sold at the end of the year. This means that little resistance is left. Forget the charts on this one. Large purchasers at $.57 from the PM are gone. Weak hands that bought early in 2011 are gone. From this point on its simply a matter of how much profit the shareholders want to keep.

     

    Pull up a 5 year weekly chart with volume and let me know what you think."

     

    Here is a 5 year chart with Volume by Price displayed: http://bit.ly/yjssD2

     

    It looks to me like the majority of the stockholders are at .50 to $1.00. How many of those holders want to hold ALL their shares between .75 and $1.00 is an open question in my mind. I have 15,000 shares I manage for another individual who I averaged down in December from .73 to .60. They have been underwater for ages. How long I will hold their shares above .60 is an open question for me because of their individual circumstances.

     

    In my own case I am averaged at $1.00 and I plan to hold my shares until it hits $5.00 or craters. I don't think many people except short-term traders want to sell below $1.00. At $1.20 a lot of people averaged between .50 and .60 might want to sell half their holdings and play on the house.

     

    I think all this means to me is not many people will be anxious to sell between .50 and $1.00. Once Quercus is done, plus any other big sellers, I think the stock will quickly climb to $1.00. Unfortunately, there is a capital raise looming at an uncertain price with an unknown number of new shares hitting the market. The impact of that is a complete wild card.
    22 Jan 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I might add that in the final analysis it all boils down to revenue ramp at meaningful numbers. Futurist alerted me to Axion's plans to start selling the PbC in reasonable quantities 2009 - didn't happen. 2010 didn't happen. 2011 didn't happen. I'll give them 2012 to start moving product, and that realistically translates to end of Q3 2012 - I am not going to expect a miracle in Q4 2012. If nothing meaningful happens by Q3 2012 I might just have to give up, take whatever losses I have and move on.

     

    I'm optimistic they will start selling the PbC this year within the time frame I've indicated, but until an announcement it is just hopium.
    22 Jan 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... As time rolls on, the PbC is showing itself to be a truly viable product. It is not a secret that Fortune 500's like to do business with their peers. It is no secret that manufacturer's are loath to not have multiple vendors for same/similar components. There has always been the threat that Axion could be demonstrated to death.
    22 Jan 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    BW,
    Wow,
    You just had to remind me of the glitches AXPW has incurred. Thank god we are both so heavily invested we can't utter bad words about the company. :-)
    22 Jan 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Another Axion relationship to put on your radar:

     

    Axion, in 2005, established an alliance with Canadian-based Hybridyne Power Systems.

     

    http://bit.ly/z0p8Vr

     

    http://bit.ly/w9PX7F
    22 Jan 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Did I miss something? What is "Axion’s e3 Supercell technology"?
    22 Jan 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    Maya.. This is a 7 year old announcement and the testing was to end by year end 2005. Is this even relevant to today?
    22 Jan 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... It probably isn't relevant but I've never heard of the "e3 Supercell " before. I admit that I only found Axion in 2006 and don't know much about it prior to that but I don't remember this designation in the scant reading I did. Just curious and I like it even better than "PowerCube".
    22 Jan 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LT: I'm not smart enough, and am most certainly not informed enough to make that call. What I do know is that I want every scrap of info about Axion Power I can find, we all can find, parked into the APCs.

     

    Especially all things that have to do with the grid. Pretty safe in saying this, and that's that grid-based applications hold far and away the greatest promise for AXPW, and therefore us shareholders.

     

    What I did like seeing is that a foriegn company/country has a long established (if it indeed it's still a relationship) grid-based alliance with Axion Power. I did not know that before.
    22 Jan 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    I did not mean the question in a bad way....was just curious to see if I missed something.

     

    "and that's that grid-based applications hold far and away the greatest promise for AXPW"
    I agree...and posted the same thing earlier after watching the VE ppt.
    22 Jan 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    e3 Supercell is a former name for the PbC that was rejected by the trademark office. That rejection lead to PbC, which could be and was trademarked.
    22 Jan 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LT: I guess I used the word "not" too many times. I'm feeling scrappy today! I have to go over to a pal's place and watch "his" Giants play for the right to go to the Supe. But...he's a chef, and one that's going to be on Iron Chef in April or May. So the eat'ns going to be pretty good.

     

    JP: Thanks for the history lesson about the e3 Supercell.
    22 Jan 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... What would have been even more interesting would be; Whatever became of the demonstration results? Why did they not become Customer No. 1? It is at least as exasperating to me that we have no testing results as it is no customers. All reports are thing are going along ... fine, but no reports and no sales won't keep the doors open ... and so I wait.
    22 Jan 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    When I use the bloomberg app on my iphone, the summary that bloomberg gives for Axion is "Axion Power International researches and develops on a hybrid electrical energy storage battery based on E3Cell technology".

     

    It's been that way for a while, I never thought much about it.

     

    I'm pretty sure E3Cell is just an old name for PbC.

     

    D
    22 Jan 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    In 2005, Axion was based in the Toronto area and Hybridine was a local integrator of wind and solar systems for small commercial installations. They did some small string testing on very early lab prototypes, but as I recall they didn't stress the batteries as heavily as Axion wanted. After Axion bought the New Castle plant in 2006 and moved from Ontario to Pennsylvania, I the relationship wilted.
    22 Jan 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    I don't want to seem defensive, but I've seen very few companies that release testing results on prototype devices that are still working their way through the industrial engineering process. The 2004 and 2005 vintage devices were hand-made cells with one lead-electrode and two carbon electrodes. Starting in 2006 we began optimizing the design for the laminated electrode assembly that's been the focus since 2007, work that couldn't begin in earnest till after we bought New Castle.

     

    All the initial electrode assemblies in New Castle were hand made in a working lab that resembled a pizza kitchen with black dough. Once we figured out how to make the electrode assemblies by hand we had to figure out how to automate the process. The first batteries with fully manufactured electrode assemblies started coming off the line in 2009 and went into testing with BMW and Norfolk Southern. The first detailed test reports from BMW were presented at ELBC 2010. The flow of additional testing information has been more reliable since the ELBC release.

     

    From my perspective, releasing detailed information on intermediate laboratory prototypes would have been counterproductive because you can never know what sacrifices you might have to make in the industrial engineering stages. The first time it makes sense to release hard data is when you've reached a logical reporting point on a fully manufactured pre-commercial prototype. That's exactly what Axion did when it got to a logical reporting point with BMW.

     

    We've seen it with BMW and we've seen it again with NS. Proper testing takes a very long time and the best intermediate result you can hope for is not failing the tests, because all first-tier testing protocols are designed to wash out unsatisfactory products at the earliest possible stage.

     

    The PbC is 30 months into the process with BMW and it hasn't failed yet. I don't imagine that the German engineers have done their work with kid gloves and expect they lie awake at nights coming up with new ways to torture the PbC because they know their customers will. I'm certain that the good folks at Norfolk Southern have been brutal in their testing over the last 24 months because they ended up with egg on their face the first time around.

     

    I believe the only testing result that really matters is a purchase order. After 30 months of disqualification testing by BMW and 24 months of disqualification testing by NS, I'm optimistic that the PbC will survive the torture tests and emerge with a purchase order in hand. But testing with the first tier is still a lot like having sex with a gorilla – you're not done till they say you're done.
    22 Jan 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I don't mean to be derogatory . I'm quite aware of the trials & tribulations in manufacturing, customer demonstration, etc.. By all indications testing on Axion's PbC is going well. No one has walked away but to-date there is no confirmation that either BMW or NS has actually put the product into the field for "real world", final phase, testing. The final phase, fast tracked or not, can tack on another 6-18 months.

     

    I don't expect blow-by-blow cycle testing records but it would be nice to know, have indicated, hinted at where the product stands in the testing regime. Has it progressed from bench & modeling to dynamic to field ... to where? It just adds to my speculation about how much money Axion has to raise and for how long it needs to string along. It's a source of frustration ... and so I wait for Customer No. 1. I expect share price to rise if financing is found but black-box testing is as good a reason as any why I don't expect the share price to skyrocket.

     

    Thanks for the "e3 Supercell" explanation. I'm not well informed about Axion before 2006 and it's time in Canada. Struck that up to being a first class mess that didn't matter anymore.
    22 Jan 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Like you I'd love to see Axion talking more about exactly where things stand in their various testing programs but I've seen the dynamic from the company side, both with Axion and with other clients. Any time there's a big player on the other side of a relationship, and it really doesn't seem to matter what the relationship is, they clamp down on the dissemination of useful information to a level I'd have never imagined possible. Some worry about losing a competitive advantage, others worry that you'll sully their good name and others still want to control timing to suit their own PR needs. The one thing they all have in common is an iron fist. It's as frustrating for a company like Axion as it is for stockholders like us, but it's also the way the game is played.
    23 Jan 2012, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    I prefer to think of being in a legal "spring loading" position...but I can understand the frustration and tried patience...
    23 Jan 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DRich: That's what I'm looking into right now, without luck.
    22 Jan 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I think that was the original term for the PbC batteries.

     

    'Axion Power International, Inc., has developed and is preparing to introduce a new generation of rechargeable energy storage devices that are part lead-acid battery and part supercapacitor. Axion calls these devices "e3 Supercells." Where lead-acid batteries use lead-based electrodes for both the positive and negative electrodes, e3 Supercells use lead-based positive electrodes and carbon-based negative electrodes.'
    22 Jan 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    Maya, as I read the Hybridyne Power - Axion press release, Hybridyne was investing in development of an electronic control system for management of power flows from "renewable energy" sources to the grid. Seems to me Axion's choice of power controller for the PowerCube indicates Axion choosing to go in a different direction. Also, based on the content of the PR, if there is a continuing relationship I would expect Axion to function as a supplier of PbC batteries.

     

    FWIW
    22 Jan 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    Bang & DrR ... very good comments to you both. I have always said that the biggest problem AXPW faces is "market acceptance" and "competition will only embrace PbC if customers demand it".

     

    They have no incentive whatsoever to move this product...they love their AGM batteries only functioning well for <6 months and frequent replacement vs. 5 years+ for PbC. Not to count AXPW at a $billion company is "creating" a serious competitor.

     

    I believe that TG must do "whatever" it takes to fill an order book. Even if it is below cost to get the product out in the field so people can see it work. This may be worst case scenario, but do what u have to do.
    22 Jan 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Lux Research just updated their information about Axion January 18. I got an email alert about availability. See it here. http://bit.ly/wIWigE

     

    Only available to clients so no freebies.
    22 Jan 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    John, you keep mentioning how BMW and NS are actively testing PbC batteries for their respective applications. I find this very plausible, but I can't help but wonder what indication we'd get if the batteries failed one of the tests. Isn't that the sort of information Axion Power would want to avoid publishing?

     

    In other words, is there some indication that these companies are still actively considering PbC batteries or are we simply assuming that they are as this is the best information we have to date?
    22 Jan 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Deamiter ... If the battery failed, for any reason, we wouldn't be talking about BMW or NS. Period.
    22 Jan 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    I'm long AXPW so I believe the narrative here. I know if the technology failed, everybody would sell, but in reality, there's a continuity of performance. If BMW decided the PbC was not right for their cars for any reason (ranging from technical to pricing to personal issues) and simply stopped testing them, how would we know?

     

    Do we get a public release every time a potential relationship doesn't pan out? I suspect the answer is, "we might not know if a company rejected the product, but we don't have any reason to think there's a problem in this case."

     

    However, maybe the CEO has recently discussed some of these ongoing relationships in broad terms in interviews or private (non-confidential) conversations. I thought I'd ask the question to avoid simply assuming.
    22 Jan 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Deamiter ... Cessation of testing by BMW or NS or VE would be material news impacting the business. It would be required to be made public as soon as Axion knew. I believe it is a SEC requirement (?) to stop insider trading. Your statement [quote] ... we don't have any reason to think there's a problem ... [quote] is true at present. You might want to visit the Axion website and listen to the CC & read the SEC filings.
    22 Jan 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, I'm up to date on Axion calls and filings.

     

    I would like to think that ending a business relationship would be material news, but I can think of ways it could be covered up. For example, if some demonstration batteries were purchased, and then supported by Axion informally (without a contract). Axion works hard to meet any customer requests, but contact just drops off and additional purchases never materialize. At what point would Axion be required to report?

     

    I work for a large manufacturing company, and in our R&D, it's not uncommon for us to buy materials and new products for testing and then just drop off the other company's radar when they don't do what we were hoping. I like what I see regarding Axion Power's business models, but I've worked with auto makers before and I know how they treat suppliers.

     

    I want to be clear that I have no reason to doubt that Axion Power is working closely with BMW and NS! I believe they are based on the reports of you guys on this instablog. I was just thinking critically about the narrative here and wondering if those claiming ongoing relationships have current data. I'd be very interested in confirmation that the end of testing at BMW or NS would be material news -- I find that plausible, but your question mark suggests (honestly - thanks) that you're not certain either.

     

    I hope I'm not coming across as bashing -- I've been lurking since concentrator 20 or so, and while I haven't had much to say I greatly appreciate the info (and the opportunity to buy at just under $0.30!)
    22 Jan 2012, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Deamiter: On Nov. 28, I heard TG state that even though the shareholders think it's taking a long time, BMW is fast tracking the PbC. Also heard that a NS order will occur in the first quarter. Both, for whatever reasons, have been delayed (though I hold that BMW has not been delayed, because of what I heard board member Bob Avrill say on July 20).

     

    No one can say they are 100% certain about BWM or NS coming through. Only orders in hand count.

     

    But it's highly likely that both will occur.
    23 Jan 2012, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Maya, what event occurred 28 Nov? I have a datestamp on my recording of the CC as 15 Nov... is there another TG interview or voice capture of something that happened 28 Nov?
    23 Jan 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 481086: Thanks for datestamping my birthday! The PowerCube/VE/PJM unveiling occurred on Nov. 28, 2011.

     

    The CC debacle happened later.
    23 Jan 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Axion holds an earnings call every quarter and management provides a general update of how things are progressing with all disclosed potential customers. The discussions are usually not as detailed as some of us might like, but they are express representations that the testing relationships are proceeding apace. If things start to go badly, the nature of the discussion always changes and becomes more conservative, guarded and qualified. Since relationships tend to strengthen or deteriorate over time, there isn't always a bright line "failure point," but you'll always know whether relationships are weakening or strengthening from the tone of the updates.
    23 Jan 2012, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    Wow, good catch Maya I totally missed that comment.
    23 Jan 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter>" I hope I'm not coming across as bashing" You didn't. This Concentrator is not just a bunch of cheerleaders. We are collectively focused on due dilligence activity - we all want to get the best reading of the tea leaves possible. If the Concentrator threads were nothing but happy talk it would be just as useless as Brand X's basher threads.
    23 Jan 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Deamiter ... To finish up here, my (?) was because I'm not sure what exactly the SEC regulation is. I have no doubt about Axion's management. They play their cards close to the vest but I could never imagine withholding news or neglecting shareholders like that, regulations or not.
    22 Jan 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I'm quite satisfied with management of this company.
    22 Jan 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    No disrespect meant , but i trust no one anymore when money is involved. That is my general view since i started investing on my own.. Do we even trust our own President??

     

    If it helped raise more capital to move onto another potential suitor and no laws are being broken why should they tell anyone that a relationship has ended??

     

    You stated they keep their cards close to their vest, that works both ways then...Reading past postings it seems that some investors have expected buyers by now. I am playing devils advocate here but i trust very few nowadays ....imho

     

    map
    22 Jan 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    That's exactly how I see it. I tend to assume the best of everybody, but that doesn't mean I don't seen potential to be let down. When I'm putting significant money into a stock, I suddenly feel a lot more critical of sources than when I'm just reading about a little company with an amazing technology.

     

    In this case, I'm not even sure it's a trust issue -- we make assumptions here on the board that I think are justified but which aren't always explicitly verified by Axion Power. My sense is that ongoing relationships with BMW and NS are one of these assumptions. We get updates once every year or two as something interesting happens, but otherwise we're just coasting on the most recent press releases.
    22 Jan 2012, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    "I might add that in the final analysis it all boils down to revenue ramp at meaningful numbers. Futurist alerted me to Axion's plans to start selling the PbC in reasonable quantities 2009 - didn't happen. 2010 didn't happen. 2011 didn't happen. I'll give them 2012 to start moving product, and that realistically translates to end of Q3 2012 - I am not going to expect a miracle in Q4 2012. If nothing meaningful happens by Q3 2012 I might just have to give up, take whatever losses I have and move on"

     

    I believe BANG made this posting above so it goes along the lines of my thought process. My DD has me investing because i believe in the product. But i have no knowledge, hence no opinion, of the daily decisions being made pertaining to potential orders. JP , as an Accountant fully knows how close you can come to almost say or do what you want with figures. As an accountant in my life i know what a small company i worked for did.

     

    So whether or not certain companies are trying our product we will never know all the details. The final answer will be SALES!!! The stock price will help tell the story as well...

     

    map
    22 Jan 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    We get updates every quarter. In the last call Mr. Granville told us that the BMW testing had gone beyond the bench and into vehicles. He also told us that BMW was "fast tracking" the process because its needs are so great. He explained that there was some timing slippage at Norfolk Southern because they needed to obtain environmental clearances but the technical aspects were progressing smoothly.

     

    If you think management is lying by misrepresenting facts or failing to disclose important developments, I'd encourage you to sell at your earliest opportunity.
    23 Jan 2012, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    To clarify the revenue expectations that prevailed before Bangwhiz knew Axion existed we have to set the way-back machine to early 2008 when PbC electrode assemblies were made by hand in the pizza kitchen.

     

    The big goal of the Quercus financing was to continue development work and build a first generation electrode fabrication line, which is a condition precedent to selling products. The initial estimates were that it would take nine to twelve months to design and build the Alpha line. The process took closer to 18 months because inventing new fabrication processes and reducing them to practice is difficult.

     

    The original marketing plan was to make batteries with electrodes from the Alpha line and put them out for paid demonstration projects with third and fourth tier users – integrators of wind and solar systems and the like. Several partners we'd planned on in 2008 ran into serious problems in the wake of the crash. Axion adjusted and moved forward.

     

    The big surprise came in the summer of 2009 when Axion did a poster presentation at the AABC and first-tier users started finding their way to New Castle. BMW started testing in the summer of 2009 and NS joined the party before the end of the year. Those developments knocked the original marketing plan into a cocked hat. Instead of devoting staff and engineering time to a half-dozen third-tier customers Axion was forced to service a couple of much larger and much more demanding customers. It was a high-class problem, but it was still a challenge.

     

    One of the biggest issues that arises with first-tier customers is that they want to investigate and approve both the product and the manufacturing process. By early 2010 we were hearing that a new manufacturing line would be needed and the line would be designed and built under the supervision of a high-end third party industrial engineering firm. Experience tells me that this development was forced by first-tier customers who made it clear that sales couldn't happen until both the product and the process satisfied their standards.

     

    The Beta line was ordered in 2010 completed last year. After the line was commissioned and de-bugged, the lead customers started buying in larger quantities for expanded testing, Axion also built the PowerCube and surprised us all by getting it qualified as a behind the meter frequency regulation resource before it went into service. We subsequently found out that GM partnered with Axion in an unsuccessful DOE grant application, Viridity Energy joined as a commercialization partner and Rosewater Energy had been formed to focus on the end-user sales function.

     

    Product sales were $1.4 million in 2010. They were $4.8 million in the first three quarters of 2011 and will probably be in the $7 million range at year end. The bulk of those sales were flooded batteries, but it's still a 400% year on year revenue growth. From what we can see right now, 2012 should be another year of solid revenue growth.

     

    Axion's had any number of delays over the years, but every one of them has been a good delay rather than a bad delay. I'd love to see things move faster, but that's my impatience rather than a problem with the hurdles Axion has cleared and the decisions management has made. I don't see any bad calls in Axion's history and can't identify a single case where I would have made a different decision.

     

    Can you?
    23 Jan 2012, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    Wow, it really sounds like I need to go back and listen to that conference call again. Maybe I somehow missed it -- I don't think that's possible, but my memory is far from infallible!

     

    I have absolutely no reason to think management is lying. Sorry to ask you to rehash common knowledge (and thanks again for doing so).
    23 Jan 2012, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    On an unrelated note, anybody know why the link (at bottom right) to my inbox sends me to a "page not found" message? I never used to bother signing in so maybe it's old news I just ignored, but it seems weird that the inbox (which claims I have 1 new message) would be broken like that.

     

    It sends me to "seekingalpha.com/inbox" where I'm informed that the page I'm looking for could not be found.
    22 Jan 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Try logging out and back in.

     

    If that doesn't work, email support@seekingalpha.com with the url that took you to the inbox.

     

    They should explain why or fix it.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jan 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I believe as recently as the last CC, TG said, in response to a question about the rather long accumulated duration of testing, that Axion was in actuality on "the fast track" with BMW... I think he also said something about being in regular contact with them... but I may have that wrong. If anyone else remembers and can place the quote exactly, it could help with the discussion above. But I would think that if we were indeed on the fast track with them only a couple of months ago, any cessation of activity would necessarily be significant news...
    22 Jan 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 481086: Please see my comment above. I heard what I heard first person. There seems to be an attempt to cast doubt afoot.
    23 Jan 2012, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    Maya...
    "There seems to be an attempt to cast doubt afoot."
    Tried patience aside, I tend to be in agreement with your statement.
    23 Jan 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    As RR said, trust but verify.

     

    Questions (not unfounded assertions) about (potential) negative aspects are needed for balance and to make us all stop and think.

     

    As long as they are reasonable questions that reasonable people might pose, I think it's good.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    23 Jan 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... I've been listening to Mr. Granville and watching company behavior for years. Other than not saying enough, what they have said was always straight with no PR flare. A rarity that I've grown willing to trust with a technology that sold itself (to me) before I found Axion in 2006.

     

    I have to admit to being one of those wide-eyed dreamers that think buyers will show themselves this year. I've thought that very same thought since 2007.

     

    "The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday - but never jam to-day. It's jam every OTHER day: to-day isn't any OTHER day, you know." But I do keep thinking "It MUST come sometimes to "jam to-day"". (Apologies to Lewis Carroll)
    22 Jan 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    481086,,,,,Fast track doesn't always equal a sale!!! Again, i am a new kid on the block, but i also want to make money as well. Again, what is "regular contact "?? I AM putting my money where my mouth is as i am HOPING that we all are wealthier in a few years.

     

    But with any company sometimes important items to a person wanting to decide how much exposure they want to have with a company might be hard to find out. Again, SALES wil make a lot of people very happy. Once it starts hopefully it snowballs as others want reduced expenses, and a better product. But busting through can be painful, and a ton of you know that feeling about this company way more than i do...

     

    map
    22 Jan 2012, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter/MAP,

     

    TG has publicly stated the BMW and NS relationship are ongoing. His statements would be considered fraud if it turned out that wasn't the case. Honestly, I'm not sure why anyone would invest in this stock if they have any doubts in this area. There is no doubt that testing has (and is occurring). We can debate the end game and the timing but we can't question the current known facts.
    23 Jan 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Safety is not an issue with the PbC. The only question is whether it will give automakers the all weather performance they need for the vehicles they want to build. So far it looks like the only product on the market that can stand up to the performance demands of advanced stop-start systems within the cost constraints. That's a nice position to be in.

     

    What most people don't understand about stop-start is that the application requires the battery to do 50 to 100 times the work. In a normal car, the battery does 300 Amp-seconds of work to start the engine on your way to work and that's it for the trip. In a stop-start system it does 300 Amp-seconds of work to start the engine and 3,300 Amp-seconds of additional work for every engine off event. If you have a daily commute with ten engine-off events, the total work required from the battery is 33,300 Amp-seconds in a stop-start vehicle compared with 300 Amp-seconds without stop-start.

     

    BMW understands the battery challenges. It has been testing the PbC for the last 30 months and has progressed to the vehicle testing stages. If the PbC was going to fail it would have done so already.
    23 Jan 2012, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Note from the desk clerk: It seems tonight the method of creating a new Concentrator has changed.

     

    At 1:27 AM, I'm not going to try to figure out how its changed.

     

    Probably won't get around to figuring out this new procedure until mid-morn.
    23 Jan 2012, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    To All: I just finished transcribing the BMW relevant portion of the 15 November 2011 CC. I listened to the mp3 several times. Maya, I can only assume that TG repeated the "fast-track" verbiage at the PJM/Veridity event, in addition to his using that same description in the CC earlier that month.. to my mind, that only reinforces the idea that their relationship is very much ongoing. What follows is my best verbatim transcription of the question and answer from the CC:

     

    Question from Paul Domasi(?) of Dakota(?) Takoda(?) Inc:
    "Yah, hi my name is Paul Domasi, thanks for taking my call. I
    wanted to know if you're still working with BMW in the Start-Stop
    program. I know you were doing testing with them.. is that still
    ongoing?"

     

    TG: "That certainly is. We have been doing testing with them since July of 2009. That continues, the working relationship with them continues. We have We we have regularly scheduled calls with them a few times a month, every month. To report progress. They are doing testing of our product to confirm the things that we have found here. And uh, and that testing has proceeded beyond bench-testing, I can't really get into a whole lot more detail about that, but we certainly are testing with them.. and with other automotive OEMs. They are the longest, some 2 and a quarter years but some other large OEMs we have been also involved with for some time.. and actually I'm glad you asked that question because it gives me an opportunity to talk about the third quarter.. in the third quarter we also met with some newer OEMs that have application or will have application to the stop-start market... so we're growing that stable."

     

    Paul Domasi: "Is there a time-frame with BMW that you had scheduled? Is it beyond it? It seems like it's a long time...2 and a half years... "

     

    TG: "Automotive companies, railroads, utilities, unfortunately the three people that we deal with are among the slowest movers in the world I think. Uhm, they are, they had told us that we're on the fast track if you can believe that, compared to the testing of, of other new technologies that they look to employ and other just technology platforms that they look to employ. They're very conservative, uhm but once they, they make a decision they move forward, according to what they're telling us, they move forward relatively quickly.

     

    Paul Domasi: "All right, thanks very much"

     

    TG: "Sure."

     

    ----------
    Unfortunately I can't really capture emphasis or intonation, but after listening to the exchange several times, I felt no undertone of uncertainty, doubt, or insincerity in anything TG said. Quite the contrary, it only reinforced my already established impression of a singularly prudent and straight-shooting individual.
    23 Jan 2012, 01:45 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 481086: Yep. My time sequence was wrong. Dang! I hate when that happens. Hate to admit when I'm wrong (don't we all?). But will freely do so when that happens. The "Wiki-effect" I so covet about the APCs.

     

    The search for truth continues....

     

    Appreciate how you handled my blunder. Very civil.
    23 Jan 2012, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Maya, glad we got that sorted.. though I would have been happy for sure to learn that TG had indeed repeated the fastrack characterization at the VE event, and I'd have been eager to hear the amplifying details too...but ticked at myself for having missed it the first time. And as far as civility is concerned, Let none other than the code of Axionistas be our guide. ;)
    23 Jan 2012, 02:34 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    Great conversation Deamiter, MAP and all. It is never a bad thing to go back and confirm why we know what we know. Fine stuff. Time can play a cruel trick on the mind sowing seeds of doubt when you are just sitting around waiting for big things to happen and those big things at times begin to feel like they will just never come. Going back to the drawing board and reconfirming the progress, reconfirming your knowledge and preparing is a good thing.
    23 Jan 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (291) | Send Message
     
    To add to what JP and others have said regarding management's representations on timing with NS, I specifically asked TG about the timing of orders from NS on the phone after the last CC. Tom said he expects an order or at least an announcement regarding their testing in the first Quarter of this year. He had previously expected it last quarter of 2011 but the EPA required an environmental report on any change in equipment in their yards due to ongoing compliance issues. Of course the change to batteries is, in part, in order to meet those compliance issues. But still the change required an analysis and a report and will require EPA approval. That is the reason for the 90 day or so delay, straight from the mouth of TG to you, via my ears.
    23 Jan 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way to the next Concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    23 Jan 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • $LINE shorts finally getting squeezed? LINE's largest holder, Omega Advisors, are "comfortable" with their $200M holdings of LINE
    Jun 18, 2013
  • I will be on Mad Money tonight in Cramer's Lightning Round with stock pick $LINE, which yields almost 9%, and yet hit a 52 week low today.
    May 30, 2013
  • Axion Power (AXPW) announces Dec. delivery of batteries to Norfolk Southern for new all electric yard switcher. Shares up 9.87%
    Jan 11, 2013
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.